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2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

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The regular season is over and for the first time in NHL history there are 15 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. For those squads and their fans, it’s a long wait for anything positive to come, with the 2018 NHL Entry Draft more than ten weeks away, scheduled for June 18th, and the start of free agency another two weeks after that. However, the odds for this year’s NHL Draft Lottery are now set and teams can at least look forward to the ping pong balls being drawn at the end of the month, on Saturday, April 28th. With the teams in the running now set, here are the odds for the #1 overall pick in this years draft:

31st – Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%

30th – Ottawa Senators: 13.5%

29th – Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%

28th – Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%

27th – Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%

26th – Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%

25th – Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%

24th – New York Rangers: 6.0%

23rd – Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%

22nd – New York Islanders: 3.5%

21st – Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%

20th – New York Islanders (from Calgary Flames): 2.5%

19th – Dallas Stars: 2.0%

18th – Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues (top-ten option)): 1.5%

17th – Florida Panthers: 1.0%

If you are a fan of one of these teams, you can entertain yourself for the next few weeks with this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Cooper Marody To Entry-Level Contract

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The Edmonton Oilers announced they have signed University of Michigan’s Cooper Marody to a three-year, entry-level contract. The Oilers acquired the 21-year-old forward’s rights from the Philadelphia Flyers several weeks ago in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick when rumors began to surface that Marody might not want to sign with the Flyers due to their depth up the middle, according to Edmonton Journal’s Jim Matheson.

Marody, drafted in the sixth round in 2015 by Philadelphia, had a breakout year this season with the Wolverines as he scored 16 goals and added 35 assists in 40 games and took his team to the Frozen Four, as Michigan lost in the semifinals to Notre Dame.

The prospect is considered to be a smart player with excellent hands, who still needs to work on his skating abilities. However, it is believed he is more ready than most of their center prospects in their system. In three years with Michigan, the center tallied 31 goals and 59 assists in his career. 

 

Red Wings GM Ken Holland Signs 2-Year Extension

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The Detroit Red Wings announced that Red Wings governor Christopher Ilitch has signed general manager Ken Holland to a two-year extension. Holland, who was the architect behind Detroit’s Stanley Cup success over the years, was to be a free-agent as his contract was expiring at the end of the season. With the team starting a massive rebuild, there was some thought the team might look in a different direction to spearhead that phase of the franchise, but that proves not to be the case.

Holland has been in his role as general manager since 1997 and during his tenure has sent the Red Wings to 18-straight playoff appearances as he built a dynasty that won Stanley Cups in 1998, 2002 and 2010. In recent years, however, Holland has been responsible for bringing in many veteran free agents with the hopes of avoiding a rebuild. The long-term deals, high salaries and no trade clauses have jammed up their team’s salary cap situation and had them miss the playoffs for two straight years.

There has been plenty of speculation about Holland and where he might end up once his contract expired. Some thought he might retire, while his name was also thrown about as a top candidate to potentially run the Seattle expansion team.

 

Snapshots: O’Ree, World Championships, Yamamoto

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The NHL has announced a new award to be given out annually, named the Willie O’Ree Community Hero Award. It will be given to the a person not affiliated with the league or any club, who “best utilizes hockey as a platform for participants to build character and develop important life skills for a more positive family experience.”

The award is named after Willie O’Ree, the NHL’s first black player who has spent decades working to bring the sport of hockey to those who may not normally be exposed to it or able to afford to play. O’Ree was honored this year on the 50th anniversary of his NHL debut—suiting up for the Boston Bruins on January 18th, 1958.

  • Several players have announced their intention to play at the upcoming World Championships, including Thomas Chabot (Canada), Chris Kreider (USA) and Casey Mittelstadt (USA). The tournament is loading up on talent this season, perhaps in part as a response to the lack of Olympics participation. The teams should be filled with talent, as others like Connor McDavid and Mathew Barzal have already expressed interest.
  • Tyler Benson and Dmitri Samorukov will be joining the Bakersfield Condors for the end of the season, but Kailer Yamamoto will not. The Edmonton Oilers’ first-round pick from 2017 suffered an injury in the WHL playoffs and will focus on his health instead. Yamamoto played just nine games with the Oilers at the beginning of the season, meaning he won’t burn a year of his entry-level contract. Watch for him to make an impact at training camp next fall, and try to secure a full-time roster spot.

Offense From Defense: Can Edmonton Improve Their Blue Line Production?

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In this week’s excellent (as always) 31 Thoughts column from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, he mentions a statistic that won’t be news to anyone who has watched the Edmonton Oilers on a regular basis this season:

Entering Wednesday’s games, Edmonton had 127 points from defensemen, 27th in the NHL. (Nashville is best, at 195.) That is something the Oilers will address in the off-season. It’s a priority.

While many will point to Cam Talbot’s struggles to repeat his 2016-17 season or the lack of secondary scoring and wing options for Connor McDavid as the team’s biggest issues, Friedman has hit on a sometimes overlooked failure of the team. The Oilers defensive group has simply not been good enough at creating offense.

That’s not to say they have to jump into rushes with more frequency, or try to go coast-to-coast like a Bobby Orr-redux, but their struggles at exiting the defensive zone with possession have been easy to see this season. That’s resulted in so few points, even with an outstanding offensive talent like McDavid driving the offense. So if they need some help in terms of a puck-moving defender, where can they find it?

One option would be free agency, where John Carlson and Mike Green both move the puck exceptionally well. Though Green’s future is cloudy at best, Carlson is set to hit the market as the top available defenseman and could earn a seven-year contract with a huge cap hit. The problem for the Oilers isn’t that Carlson may not be worth that much, but that they might not be able to afford him. The team has already committed to four defensemen—Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell—for at least another three seasons, at a combined cap hit of almost $18MM. Add in extensions for Darnell Nurse (who currently leads the group with 25 points) and Matt Benning and it’s clear there will have to be another sort of change made.

That would have to come through trade if there is to be a real change, and it’s not clear exactly who that would be. Some have speculated that the team was showcasing Klefbom this season, and Sekera has struggled through injury this season and not looked the same. Klefbom would certainly still have many suitors if he was shopped around, but it’s not so easy with Sekera. The 31-year old defenseman has a full no-movement clause (Russell also holds one of these) until the summer of 2019, meaning he would have to agree to any potential trade. His $5.5MM cap hit is another potential red flag for an acquiring team, who can’t be sure of the production he’ll bring going forward.

Either way, something must be done in Edmonton after a terribly disappointing season. The fact that they’ve identified the defense as a problem to be fixed is a good thing, and one that is sure to bring quite a bit of news this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Black Monday: The Day The Coaches (Could) Disappear

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The NHL looks like it will finish an entire season without seeing a single coach fired for the first time since expansion in 1967, but there could be a dark lining on that stat coming next week. “Black Monday” as it is being termed could be coming after the final game of the regular season this Sunday, with close to a dozen coaches finding themselves on the hot seat.

In last night’s Insider Trading segment on TSN, Bob McKenzie broke down a list of potential firings that looked like this:

Glen Gulutzan, Calgary Flames
Bill Peters, Carolina Hurricanes
Joel Quenneville, Chicago Blackhawks
Jeff Blashill, Detroit Red Wings
Todd McLellan, Edmonton Oilers
Doug Weight, New York Islanders
Alain Vigneault, New York Rangers
Guy Boucher, Ottawa Senators
Barry Trotz, Washington Capitals

Some of these names simply don’t have a contract for next season, including Trotz, who also happens to be the only coach on the list heading to the playoffs. The Capitals have won the Metropolitan Division for the third year in a row, but will be judged entirely on their postseason performance. Washington must find some success past the second round, or there could be a shake up in order starting with the man behind the bench.

The rest of the list is a who’s who of disappointing seasons, with Quenneville sticking out like a sore thumb. Arguably one of the best coaches of all-time, Quenneville’s firing could cause what McKenzie terms a ripple effect throughout the league. Though he doesn’t expand on that idea, many have wondered whether another team would fire their incumbent to have the opportunity to hire Quenneville should he become a free agent, much like the Montreal Canadiens did last season when Claude Julien was let go from Boston.

In New York, while both coaches might not be back it would be for very different reasons. Vigneault has had a lot of regular season success with the Rangers, but as they enter into an unfamiliar rebuild they could want to start with a fresh face behind the bench. For Weight and the Islanders, this season was an abject failure as they tried to woo John Tavares with a trip to the postseason. They won’t get there, and now have to worry about whether their captain and superstar will stick around.

There could be many other names you could suggest for the list, and it is extremely unlikely that all of these will get the boot before the start of 2018-19. You can be sure some changes are coming though, even if it does come after a remarkable season of patience by general managers around the league.

Snapshots: Three Stars, Keller, Makar, Boeser

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The NHL announced its three stars for the month of March as Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid has found his way to the top once again, named the first star. McDavid picked up 13 goals and 15 assists in 16 games, which pulls him into the lead for the Art Ross Trophy race. Despite the Oilers struggles, McDavid has taken his game to a new level as he has hit career highs in goals (41) and points (103) and remains six points ahead of Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov for top spot in the NHL.

Boston Bruins forward Brad Marchand is the league’s second star for March as he had 10 goals and 16 assists in 15 games. Anaheim goaltender John Gibson picked up third star honors after playing in 13 games, picking up nine wins and boasting a .931 save percentage during that span.

  • Arizona Coyotes announced rookie Clayton Keller was named NHL Rookie of the Month for the second time this season. Keller, who won the award in October, had a strong start to the season, but struggled during the winter months before picking it back up recently. He picked up 19 points in the month of March, including six goals over 17 games. The 19-year-old is ranked second among rookies in points with 63 behind the New York Islanders’ Mathew Barzal.
  • BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater tweets that the Colorado Avalanche will have to wait a little while longer to get bring in 2017 first-round pick Cale Makar into the fold. The fourth-overall pick has decided to return to the University of Massachusetts – Amherst for his sophomore year.  An elite power-play defenseman, Makar had a solid freshman year at Amherst, putting up five goals and 21 points and the Avalanche had hopes of instantly upgrading its defense for next year.
  • Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal tweets that it is doubtful that Vancouver Canucks rookie Brock Boeser plays for Team USA at this year’s 2018 IIHF World Championships in Denmark. Boeser went down for the season with a back injury and likely will spend his summer getting ready for the 2018-19 season. The 21-year-old had a great rookie season in which he scored 29 goals and picked up 55 points.

Minor Transactions: 3/31/18

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Today’s slate of 12 games carries some serious weight, like most days this late in the season. The two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a Florida Panthers regulation loss and their 2016 Cup competitors, the San Jose Sharks, can also get in with a win over the Vegas Golden Knights. Anything less than a regulation win for the Sharks will seal the Pacific Division for the Knights, while a Vegas loss and Winnipeg Jets regulation loss will give the Western Conference title to the Nashville Predators. On the other end of the spectrum, the Carolina Hurricanes and Dallas stars are in action today with their tragic numbers down to one. Both teams must win and hope the New Jersey Devils and St. Louis Blues respectively lose to keep their playoff hopes alive. There is a lot at stake; keep track of how the teams are preparing today right here:

  • Michal Neuvirth continues to struggle with his lower-body injuries and will be unable to go against the Boston Bruins tomorrow. As a result, the Philadelphia Flyers announced that they have recalled young Alex Lyon from the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms on an emergency basis to serve as Petr Mrazek’s backup. Lyon has made 11 appearances for Philly in his rookie season as a dependable option to deal with the team’s many goaltending woes.
  • Another emergency recall is defenseman Chris Butler, per the St. Louis Blues. After Jordan Schmaltz left the Blues’ game last night with an upper-body injury and did not return, St. Louis needed a replacement and got one by bringing up Butler from the AHL’s San Antonio Rampage. Butler has skated in just two NHL games this season, but is enjoying a career year in the minor leagues with 29 points and a +12 rating in 60 games.
  • The Edmonton Oilers have also made an emergency recall, adding Keegan Lowe to the blue line from the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors. Despite multiple call-ups, Lowe has not yet debuted for the Oilers, but could get his chance against the Calgary Flames today.
  • The Calgary Flames announced they have recalled defenseman Oliver Kylington from the Stockton Heat of the AHL as an emergency call-up. He has been added as the extra defenseman in case one of their six defenseman are either injured or ill. Kylington, the team’s second-round pick in 2015, has been having a solid year in his third AHL season. He has five goals and 26 assists in 56 games this season. He has played one NHL game in his career, back in the 2015-16 season.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have assigned forward Kyle Criscuolo to the Rochester Americans of the AHL. The 25-year-old forward hasn’t played since Mar. 5 with a shoulder injury and now that he is skating, it is believed he will return to Rochester for their AHL playoff run. Criscuolo has played nine games for the Sabres this season, with no points. He has 15 goals in 50 games with the Americans this year.

Minor Transactions: 3/25/18

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There have already been a couple early moves today as the league prepares for the second-to-last week of the regular season. Expect more to come as injuries and college additions continue to shift roster makeup. Others will be made to specifically prepare for key match-ups, such as major playoff position battles today between the Penguins and Flyers and Predators and Jets. Keep track of all the action here:

  • The Ottawa Senators have recalled forward Ben Sexton from their AHL affiliate in Belleville, marking the first big-league call-up for the 26-year-old. Sexton was a leader and top scorer as a college player at Clarkson University from 2010 to 2014, but the Boston Bruins, who had drafted him in the seventh round in 2009, moved on after just two disappointing minor league campaigns. Ever since, Sexton has been much more productive in the AHL and has finally earned his first NHL shot in his first season with the Senators after posting 10 goals and 21 points in 28 games so far in 2017-18.
  • Victor Ejdsell is also making his first trip to the NHL, not long after making his North American pro debut. The Chicago Blackhawks have announced Ejdsell’s promotion this morning and the 22-year-old Swedish forward could be in the lineup in short order, seeing as it was an emergency recall. Ejdsell was acquired by Chicago in the Ryan Hartman trade last month and only joined the AHL’s Rockford Ice Hogs last week. Ejdsell recorded 34 points in 50 games in the Swedish Hockey League this season before making the jump and notched an assist in his first AHL game.
  • With backup Al Montoya suffering through a minor ailment, the Edmonton Oilers announced they are recalling Laurent Brossoit on an emergency basis. The 25-year-old goaltender and one-time back-up this year has struggled in the NHL, posting a 3.22 GAA and a .886 save percentage in 13 games this year. He’s fared slightly better with the Bakersfield Condors with a 2.72 and a .912 save percentage in 22 games. The Oilers also announced they have sent forward Brad Malone to Bakersfield. Malone had been recalled Friday, but did not play Saturday.
  • The St. Louis Blues’ Samuel Blais has been up and down quite a bit in the past couple of days. The 21-year-old winger was called up Friday on an emergency basis and sent back down that night. He was recalled Saturday on an emergency basis and was assigned back to the San Antonio Rampage this morning, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. He did not play in either Friday’s or Saturday’s games. The Blues have also assigned emergency fill-in Ville Husso to the San Antonio Rampage, according to NHL.com’s Lou Korac. The move suggests that Blues backup Carter Hutton, who has been out with a neck injury since Mar. 3, is ready to return to the team.

Western Notes: Oilers’ Offseason, Kane, Denver Players, Sikura

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The Edmonton Oilers are not heading to the playoffs and are currently looking at all their in-house options before the season ends. Then the team will embark on the next bunch of steps to fix the team that one year ago was the talk of the league. The Athletic’s Jonathan Willis (subscription required) comes up with an eight-point plan on how to fix the team this offseason, primary of which is to watch its spending, both on free agents as well as the possibility to send off some of their own contracts as well.

One of the first suggestions is that Edmonton should not overreact when it comes to some of their underperforming players. While several of their defensemen had tough seasons this year including Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera and Adam Larsson, Willis believes that it’s unlikely that they will struggle again and the team must preach patience. However, the team needs to unload expensive contracts of bottom-tier players, suggesting the team might want to see if they can trade off defenseman Kris Russell and forward Zach Kassian to free up some of their money.

As for free agency, the team should avoid big-name free agents and look to sign some of the more modestly-priced players that will be on the market even suggesting that they could consider bringing back Patrick Maroon if he will agree on a short-term deal.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks great Patrick Kane said he hasn’t decided yet whether he will play at the World Championships in Copenhagen in May, according to Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. He said he’ll consider it after his season ends, but it’s “definitely an option. After I didn’t go last year, I was thinking that maybe I should have went.”
  • Although this note is about a Western collegiate team, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman (subscription required) had an interesting nugget in his prospect mailbag. Pronman was asked of the potential signings of the University of Denver’s three forward prospects in Henrik Borgstrom, Troy Terry and Dylan Gambrell, three of the team’s top players. Pronman’s response is that he believes all three will be signing with their respective teams the moment their college season is over. Denver is currently playing in the NCAA tournament. Borgstrom, the Florida Panthers’ 2016 first-rounder scored 22 goals in his sophomore season. Terry, the Anaheim Ducks’ 2015 fifth-rounder picked up 13 goals and 44 points in his junior campaign, while Gambrell, San Jose Sharks’ second-round pick in 2015, finished his junior year with 13 goals and 42 points. All three could be major contributors to their teams as soon as next season.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks also could benefit greatly soon as well as Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that if Northeastern University loses today or Sunday, expect prospect Dylan Sikura to be signed and in the Blackhawks lineup by Thursday. The Northeastern senior, who was the sixth-round pick in 2014, has had dominant season the past two years, combining for 42 goals and 110 points in two seasons. Northeastern is playing Michigan today.

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