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Draft Lottery Can Change Many Franchises’ Futures

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A lottery it really is this year.

While the NHL draft lottery always garners quite a bit of attention, some years are just a bit different if the top pick is a game-changer, whether you’re talking about Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews or this year’s No. 1 option. With prospect Rasmus Dahlin listed as the consensus top pick this year, and described by many as having no weaknesses, he is considered to be one of the top defensive prospects to enter the league in possible decades. The 18-year-old defenseman out of Sweden should immediately change the state of any franchise that wins tonight.

With the lottery just hours away, how will each club look if they were to get lucky and win it?

Buffalo Sabres (18.5%) — The Sabres franchise would get a huge boost with the addition of Dahlin plus some badly needed luck that they seem to never have. Already boasting one of the worst defenses in the league and sudden talk that the team shouldn’t consider Rasmus Ristolainen a No. 1 defenseman, the team and general manager Jason Botterrill’s job would get much easier if they can win the lottery.

Ottawa Senators (13.5%) — Winning the lottery should make their tough decision easier as they traded away their top pick in the Matt Duchene trade, which is, fortunately for them, top-three protected. Winning the lottery is a no-brainer as they would take Dahlin who could either join star defenseman Erik Karlsson or allow the team to trade the veteran, knowing they already have his replacement. However, the real issue is they end up in the top three, do they keep the pick or send it to Colorado to avoid giving Colorado an unprotected first-rounder in 2019.

Arizona Coyotes (11.5%) — Despite having the third-worst record in the league this year, the Coyotes seem to be heading in the right direction as they went 19-12-4 in their final 35 games of the season as many of the team’s young players had started to figure things out. What better way to improve on that then to add Dahlin, who could convince fellow countryman Oliver Ekman-Larsson to stay on with the team for many years to come.

Montreal Canadiens (9.5%) — With the injury struggles of aging defenseman Shea Weber and little else defensive help nearby, the team could use the infusion of a franchise-changing defenseman joining the team. With Weber and goaltender Carey Price on huge contracts, a cheap franchise player could move the team in the right direction.

Detroit Red Wings (8.5%) — What better way to finally start the rebuild, then by adding a young, talented defender to join the team. With few defensive prospects on the horizon, the team’s suspect defense could get a huge boost with Dahlin. With the return of Mike Green unknown, and a group of aging veterans, the team needs someone to take over as the face of the franchise.

Vancouver Canucks (7.5%) — The Canucks rebuild is looking better and better with players like Adam Gaudette, Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen and defenseman Olli Juolevi about to arrive. Throw in Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat and a number of other prospects on the way, Dahlin would only quicken this team’s rise of young players. On top of that, the team is loaded with defensive-minded blueliners and could use an offensive power-play quarterback.

Chicago Blackhawks (6.5%) — While a lottery victory by the Blackhawks might infuriate the rest of the league, the Blackhawks do need to bolster their defensive depth and Dahlin could easily vault a struggling team back into the playoffs as he could take a lot of pressure off veterans Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook.

New York Rangers (6%) — Just started a rebuild and they walk away with a generational talent? While many people believe the Rangers intend to have a quick rebuild and compete for a playoff spot within the next year or two, having Dahlin on the roster would only jettison the team to that goal quicker and putting him alongside Brady Skjei and Neal Pionk along with veteran Kevin Shattenkirk would help stabilize their blueline.

New York Islanders (6% total with 3.5% from their pick and Calgary’s 2.5%) — Perhaps winning the lottery would be enough to convince John Tavares to stay. Regardless, adding Dahlin to their defensive woes would only stabilize a team that has the offense to reach the playoffs. He could be a cornerstone the franchise hasn’t had there since Denis Potvin. Add in the fact that the Islanders also have the Calgary Flames’ pick, the team has a better chance to winning the lottery than quite a few teams.

Edmonton Oilers (5%) — Angry fans might protest Edmonton walking away as another lottery winner, but adding Dahlin to, again, a failing defense would allow a team that already has McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should bounce back to where they left off one year ago. Dahlin would provide the team with the No. 1 defenseman that they currently lack

Carolina Hurricanes (3%) — As the percentage begin to really drop, Carolina would only get richer as the team is already loaded in quality young defensemen and would allow the team to move other defenseman like Justin Faulk and acquire more scoring, which the team badly needs.

Dallas Stars (2%) — The addition of Dahlin along with last year’s third overall pick in Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen would make for a deadly combo and that’s not including John Klingberg.

Philadelphia Flyers (1.5% from St. Louis Blues) — Adding Dahlin could put Philadelphia at the same level with Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.

Florida Panthers (1%) — The hottest team that didn’t make the playoffs would get a much needed boost if they could hit that 1/100 chance.

 

 

Poll: Who Was The NHL’s Most “Outstanding” Player In 2017-18?

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The release of the Hart Trophy finalists each year is always guaranteed to result in discontent. Three fan bases – and the majority of unbiased observers – are happy with the decision, while those who support the players that narrowly missed out on a nomination feel the need to criticize the process and establish why their favorite player should have been picked. This phenomenon can be attributed to just the sheer number of elite players worthy of recognition in the NHL, but more than anything it is due to the continued confusion over what the award actually represents.

The Hart Trophy is awarded to the “player judged most valuable to his team”, or in even simpler terms, it is the NHL’s MVP award. In 2017-18, it is hard to argue that any player was more “valuable” to his team than one of Nathan MacKinnon, Taylor Hall, and Anze Kopitar. Without those three, the Colorado Avalanche, New Jersey Devils, and Los Angeles Kings, respectively, would not only have missed the playoffs, but may have been among some of the worst teams in the league. Yet, the Connor McDavid supporters like to point out that he not only led the league in scoring with 108 points, but was far-and-away the best player on the Edmonton Oilers. This is undeniably true, but the Oilers also finished with just 78 points, a whole 17 points back of MacKinnon’s Avs for a playoff spot and closer to the worst record in hockey than the postseason. Was McDavid valuable to the team? Yes, but at the end of the day, his contributions really only cost his team in NHL Draft Lottery odds.

Yet, even experienced journalists like the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples continue to misinterpret the award. He specifically refers to McDavid as the league’s “overlooked most outstanding player” and breaks down the league’s scoring leaders without regard for the context, or value, of that scoring to each team. Staples’ sentiment is shared by many teams and the criteria he uses in his article to determine his Hart finalists is valid, except for the fact that it is not a “most outstanding player award”; that’s the Ted Lindsay Award, and yes McDavid is a finalist for that.

So here is a forum for all the frustrated fans who want to argue about who the best player in the NHL is. It’s hard to make a case that the PHWA got the Hart nominees for this season wrong, but there are many cases to be made for who the best player in the NHL was this season. Have at it.

Edmonton To Make Several Coaching Changes

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1:40pm: The Oilers have confirmed the assignment for Woodcroft, and announced that Johnson and Ian Herbers would both not return to the team. McLellan will indeed remain head coach for the 2018-19 season. No word on who the new assistants will be so far.

8:30am: The Edmonton Oilers are expected to announce several changes to their coaching staff today, starting with the reassignment of Jay Woodcroft from NHL assistant to AHL head coach. Fellow assistant Jim Johnson will also not be back according to John Shannon of Sportsnet. The overwhelming belief is that recently fired Glen Gulutzan (Calgary Flames) and Trent Yawney (Anaheim Ducks) will be added to the NHL staff. If that happens, it likely means Todd McLellan would be staying on as head coach, though no one has confirmed his job yet.

It’s not clear exactly how everything will shake out in Edmonton, but there was clearly a need for some change after an incredibly disappointing season. The club was expected to be Stanley Cup contenders with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, but despite outstanding offensive performances from both players they found themselves near the bottom of the standings.

Gulutzan was replaced in Calgary after just two seasons, but is still well respected around the league. Working his way up from the ECHL, he’ll have to take a step backwards and wait for another head coaching opportunity to present itself. Yawney has a long history as a coach in the NHL, dating back to 1999-00 when he was an assistant with the Chicago Blackhawks. His contract wasn’t renewed by the Ducks, but it isn’t surprising to see him land on his feet quickly.

Evening Notes: Maple Leafs, Ducks, Holland

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The Toronto Maple Leafs were so close, and yet so far away. Clawing their way back from a 3-1 series deficit, the Leafs surrendered the seventh game to a Boston team who came out flying the final period. In the latest iteration of his 31 thoughts, Sportsnet’s Elliott Friedman writes that the Maple Leafs need to clarify their front office structure after a gut-wrenching game seven loss. Writes Friedman, who says that the Leafs young front office talent is ready to move up:

(Kyle) Dubas and (Mark) Hunter are OHL rivals from London and Sault Ste. Marie. What does promotion for one mean for the other? And, what does it mean for Lamoriello? Would he want to stay in an advisory role? Or could another organization come calling?

Honestly, I don’t have a great feel for it. There are some executives who believe Shanahan will change things, others who believe he will keep status quo into 2018–19. We’re guessing, but we’re soon to get our answer.

Friedman adds that the Leafs will have decisions to make with a number of key players, as Auston Matthews’ contract negotiations will “dominate conversation.”

  • Friedman writes that Ducks GM Bob Murray said there is still a lot of “emotion” after Anaheim bowed out of the playoffs quickly against the Sharks. Friedman reports that he was in Ontario watching some of the Ducks prospects, and admitted that the game is being played at a much faster pace–and a version that he would like to see played and would have been played more if not for an injury plagued 2017-18.
  • Freidman reports that Red Wings general manager Ken Holland will be one of several GMs to be present at the draft lottery on Saturday. Holland spoke with MLive’s Ansar Khan during AHL affiliate Grand Rapids Griffins’ 6-3 loss and told Khan that there will be no express line and that young prospects have to be an “NHL player” in order to make the roster. This type of thinking is a slight move from Holland’s “overly ripe” mentality for years, which was skewered by fans and some analysts for letting talent wait too long before coming to the NHL, hurting the organization in the long run. Holland said as much to the Detroit Red Wings’ Art Regner in his Red and White Authority podcast, indicating that the Red Wings have a number of chances to stockpile young talent and give the younger players a chance.

International Notes: Koskinen, Yakovlev, Lyubushkin, Yelesin

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In the always enlightening 31 Thoughts column by Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, he touches on several international players that are on the radar for NHL teams. Starting with goaltender Mikko Koskinen, who he reports recently agreed to a deal with Edmonton, Friedman has also heard—but can’t confirm one way or the other—the $2.5MM/year rumor that has been floating around.

Though nothing has been announced by the team, a deal of that magnitude for the 29-year old goaltender would likely mean the team has plans for him at the NHL level, perhaps as part of a tandem with Cam Talbot next season.

  • The Vancouver Canucks could sign Par Lindholm according to Friedman, or at least have the best shot at this point. The 26-year old Swedish center competed at the Olympics this year and was one of the SHL’s most dangerous offensive weapons. With 47 points in 49 games he ranked fourth in league scoring.
  • Friedman reports that Yegor Yakovlev is expected to sign with the New Jersey Devils, after another good season with SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL. The 26-year old defenseman played at the Olympics as well, and is heading to the World Championships for Russia.
  • Ilya Lyubushkin (24) and Alexander Yelesin (22), two young Russian defensemen are also expected to sign, though Friedman only sources overseas reports that say the former is headed to Arizona. We’ll have to wait to see where exactly they end up.
  • Bogdan Kiselevich is also still on NHL radar, with Friedman reporting that “several teams continue to chase” him. Kiselevich, 28, has been playing in the KHL for years and was even selected in the CHL import draft way back in 2008. He was an alternate captain for CSKA Moscow this season, but becomes a free agent in a few days.

Koskinen's Contract Likely To Be Pricey For A Backup

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With the Oilers believed to be the frontrunners to sign goaltender Mikko Koskinen, Postmedia’s Jim Matheson speculates that the deal could be one of the richer ones for a backup, suggesting that it could be in the range of $2MM per season.  While on the surface, that may seem pricey for someone with next to no track record in the NHL (just four underwhelming appearances with the Islanders in 2010-11), it’s still somewhat understandable as he has been one of the top KHL netminders in recent years and would undoubtedly command a sizable contract if he were to remain there.  However, if the final deal winds up being around that cap hit, that will further whittle away at Edmonton’s somewhat limited cap room heading into 2018-19.

Oilers Winger Iiro Pakarinen Signs In KHL

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Oilers winger Iiro Pakarinen is heading back overseas.  A report from Sasha Huttunen and Markku Saarinen of Iltalehti in Finland states that Pakarinen has signed with Metallurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL for next season, ending a four-year stint in North America.  The term of the contract is not yet known.

The 26-year-old played in 40 games with Edmonton this past season, posting two goals and an assist while logging just over 10 minutes per night in ice time.  He was more productive at the minor league level after clearing waivers back in December, recording 13 points (9-4-13) in 18 games with their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield.

While he wound up back with the big club down the stretch, the writing was on the wall that Pakarinen was likely to be a player on the fringes in training camp.  As a result, he’s chosen to go where he’ll have a bigger role which could help his chances of landing another NHL look down the road.  While Edmonton can retain his rights for one more year by qualifying him in June (his required offer is a little over $760K), he will become an unrestricted free agent in July of 2019.

As Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal notes, Pakarinen was one of the more effective penalty killers for the Oilers and with Mark Letestu, who led all Edmonton forwards in shorthanded ice time per game, dealt to Columbus near the trade deadline, GM Peter Chiarelli will likely be on the lookout for some checking help up front in the months to come.

Edmonton Oilers Frontrunners To Sign KHL’s Mikko Koskinen

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED each have linked the Edmonton Oilers with being the frontrunners to sign KHL goaltender Mikko Koskinen as the team’s backup to starter Cam Talbot. Koskinen, who has been playing with the KHL for the past six seasons, made his intentions known a couple of weeks ago that he’d like to take his talents back to the NHL.

The 29-year-old, who was a second-round pick of the New York Islanders in 2009, came overseas and played two games in the ECHL, 41 games in the AHL and four games with the Islanders, but struggled and eventually opted to return to Finland. In 31 games for SKA St. Petersburg, the goaltender posted a 1.89 GAA and a .905 save percentage.

Koskinen could be a good fit with Edmonton, assuming Talbot can rebound after a tough season. The starter went from a 2.39 GAA in 2016-17 and dropped to a 3.02 GAA this year. One key factor is the amount of games the veteran has played. Talbot has appeared in 153 games in two years if you include the 2017 playoffs. If Talbot can return to form, Koskinen could be a solid backup option where the team struggled last year. Laurent Brossoit started the year as the backup, but lost his job when he posted a 3.24 GAA. The team then traded for veteran Al Montoya, who didn’t fare much better with a 2.94 GAA in nine appearances. Montoya is the only backup who is under contract for next year at $1.06MM.

The Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that a backup goalie is essential to a team’s success and compares the potential signing to that of Anders Nilsson, who also struggled after being drafted by the Islanders and went overseas before signing with Edmonton. However, Nilsson struggled as a backup as well and was traded away later that same season. However, Koskinen has six years in the KHL under his belt and would be a far more likely option to be successful as a backup with the Oilers.

Friedman reported the news on Saturday’s Hockey Night in Canada.

Edmonton Oilers Re-Sign Ty Rattie

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It’s easy to forget that non-playoff teams are still hard at work behind the scenes, but the Edmonton Oilers have thrown their name into the postseason news cycle this evening. The team announced that they have re-signed forward Ty Rattie to a one-year contract extension worth $800K. Rattie was an impending unrestricted free agent, having signed a one-year deal with Edmonton last off-season.

Rattie must be relieved to have his contract situation wrapped up and to be returning to Edmonton next season. The 2016-17 experience was not an easy one for Rattie; the swift-skating right winger played in four games with the St. Louis Blues early in the season, was waived and claimed by the Carolina Hurricanes in January, was waived again a month later after just five games in Raleigh, and claimed back by the Blues who buried him in the AHL for the remainder of the season. Rattie was then not given a qualifying offer last summer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Rattie settled for a one-year, two-way deal with the Oilers, but made the most of it, scoring a career-high nine points in 14 games while also earning an AHL All-Star nod, finishing with 43 points in 53 games.

This extension will represent a substantial raise over his last deal with the Oilers. After an impressive campaign at both levels, the 25-year-old looks primed to fight for a full-time role in Edmonton next season. While he is likely happy to be back with the team that gave him the best chance to succeed thus far in his young pro career, Rattie – and the Oilers – must have known that he could have drawn some interest on the open market as well. Instead, there was clearly mutual interest in maintaining the status quo.

Blues Notes: Allen, Edmundson, Trade Targets, Fabbri

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While fans would like to see the St. Louis Blues move on from starting goaltender Jake Allen, that’s not likely to happen, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Jeff Gordon in a reader chat. The main reason Allen isn’t going anywhere is that there are no better goaltenders available in free agency and via trade this offseason. The team’s best bet is to make sure they lock up backup Carter Hutton and use that combination for one more season.

Allen’s play has declined after a strong start. In fact, his numbers have steadily declined over the last four years, putting up a 2.28 GAA in 2014-15, followed with a 2.35 GAA in 2015-16, a 2.42 GAA in 2016-17 and a 2.75 GAA this season. Gordon also points out that the answer to the team’s goalie issues is more likely to arrive in 2019-20 when Ville Husso arrives as he is most likely going to stay in the AHL for one more season developing his skills and serving as a third-string goaltender for the Blues. Husso had a 2.42 GAA and a .922 save percentage in 38 games with the San Antonio Rampage.

  • Gordon also says that general manager Doug Armstrong said that defenseman Joel Edmundson shouldn’t expect a big payday this offseason. The 24-year-old will be a restricted free agent this year, but the team is unlikely to give Edmudson a long-term offer at this point and might have to fight for a quality contract through arbitration this year. Edmundson, who made $1.05MM this season should get a raise, but the team has already handed out sizeable deals to Alex Pietrangelo (two years remaining at $6.5MM) and Colton Parayko (four years left at $5.5MM) and still must pay veteran Jay Bouwmeester one more year at $5.4MM. One year from now, however, the team could lock Edmundson up. He keeps improving, putting up a career high seven goals this year.
  • Gordon writes that Armstrong has said he wants to add a top-six forward, preferably a center to the team this offseason. With the free-agent market heavy in wingers, the Blues might have to consider a trade, suggesting the team should attempt to pry Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Edmonton or Ryan O’Reilly from Buffalo. While the Oilers have stated they will not move Nugent-Hopkins, O’Reilly might be a different story in Buffalo.
  • While Gordon writes that there is no news on prospect Robby Fabbri, who missed the season after tearing his ACL twice in the same knee, there is plenty of concern. Because of his injuries, there is plenty of concern of whether he will ever turn out to be the prospect they hoped he would be.

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