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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders 23.09% (263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 18.88% (215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.66% (110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 8.96% (102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.73% (88 votes)
Calgary Flames 6.41% (73 votes)
New Jersey Devils 5.62% (64 votes)
New York Rangers 4.39% (50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 3.69% (42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 3.69% (42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 2.19% (25 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.58% (18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 1.49% (17 votes)
Nashville Predators 1.23% (14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.79% (9 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.61% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139

[mobile users click here to vote]

Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

Still No Talks Between Oilers, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

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The Edmonton Oilers really only have three forwards they can count on to produce offense right now. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Those three have combined for 24 of the team’s 60 goals this season, with the rest of the forward group only accounting for 23 (the defense has totaled 13, led by Darnell Nurse’s six).

The first two of that trio are locked up long-term, earning huge salaries and winning plenty of individual awards. But Nugent-Hopkins, he’s on the final year of his current contract and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. That contract was actually a seven-year extension worth $42MM, signed in the fall of 2013 before his entry-level deal had even expired. Since it kicked in, the 2011 first-overall pick has recorded 324 points in 439 games, making the playoffs just once.

Still, Nugent-Hopkins is a huge part of this Oilers team. His transition to wing and budding chemistry with Connor McDavid makes him a valuable piece, but as Ryan Rishaug of TSN reports there have still not been any contract talks between Edmonton and the Nugent-Hopkins camp since before the season began. Rishaug does note that both player and organization have expressed a desire to stay together long-term, but so far, nothing has been worked out.

As much as it seems like the Oilers are a high-powered offense that just can’t defend enough, it’s not really the case. In both 2017-18 and 2018-19, they finished 20th in goals for. In the shortened season last year, they were 15th on a per-game rate. This season they’re off to a better start, though the North Division defense might have something to do with that jump. Instead of a high-powered offense, it’s really just a few outstanding players.

The question the Oilers will have to face is whether re-signing Nugent-Hopkins helps or hurts in the quest to change that. He certainly is a strong third option, but tying even more money up at the top of the roster could be difficult for a team that needs to improve throughout. Even in a depressed market, Nugent-Hopkins will likely secure more than $6MM per season, given he has 74 points in his last 82 games and will reach free agency at the age of 28.

Rishaug notes that “this is not an asset the organization would want to lose for nothing,” implying that Nugent-Hopkins could be a trade candidate in the coming months if there’s not a path to a new contract. It’s certainly premature at this point to think he’s on the way out, but it’s a situation to keep an eye on as the April 12 trade deadline approaches.

Devin Shore Clears Waivers

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Feb 17: Shore has cleared waivers and can be assigned to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

Feb 16: The Edmonton Oilers have placed another depth forward on waivers, this time moving Devin Shore there. The team has recently seen Tyler Ennis, Alex Chiasson, and James Neal all clear. Even Shore was already waived at the beginning of the season, but his clock had expired and he needed to be waived again if the Oilers want to move him to the taxi squad or minor leagues.

Shore, 26, has three points in 11 games this season, despite averaging fewer than nine minutes of ice time. The journeyman, who has now played for four different organizations through his first 299 games, doesn’t offer a ton of upside but had at least recorded an assist in two of his last three games. Among the potential taxi squad replacements are Neal, who cleared waivers just two days ago, Patrick Russell, who still doesn’t have an NHL goal in 52 games, and Joakim Nygard, who has played in just four games this season.

Once again, the Oilers found themselves unable to outscore their defensive troubles last night, losing 6-5 to the Winnipeg Jets. Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith both struggled in net, stopping just 18 of 24 shots between them. Tyson Barrie, who has never been known for his defensive acumen, ended up playing nearly 31 minutes.

Finding a fit for the bottom-six is crucial if the Oilers want to really compete in the North Division. Just three forwards have even ten points on the season so far, just four have more than five. Despite Shore’s inexpensive contract, he seems destined to go unclaimed.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/15/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. While the league is still waiting for a report from the Edmonton Oilers, here are today’s results for the other 30 teams:

Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Hunter Miska*
Edmonton – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: John Hayden, Arizona Coyotes; Tobias Rieder, Buffalo Sabres; Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild; Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils

Many of today’s CPRA removals were revealed long before the list was published this afternoon. Hayden was in the lineup for Coyotes for their matinee match-up with the Blues, while Bastian joined the Devils in their return to practice this morning and Rieder did the same with the Sabres. Interestingly, McCabe and Montour were also participants in Buffalo practice today, likely indicating that they will come off the list tomorrow. New Jersey’s Gusev and Kulikov skated separately with coaches after practice today, possibly implying that they too will be off the list soon.

After being late to report yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche are responsible for the only CPRA addition today in young goaltender Miska. Otherwise, this is another positive day as the NHL’s COVID numbers continue to trend strongly in the right direction. With the difficult situations in Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Jersey looking like they will soon be resolved, some progress in Philadelphia is seemingly the only thing stopping the league moving on from their recent rash of postponements and lengthy CRPA lists.

 

Oilers’ James Neal Clears Waivers

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Sunday: As expected, Neal has cleared waivers and can now be assigned to the Oilers’ taxi squad. His $5.75MM cap hit will be reduced to $4.675MM once the move is completed. Edmonton has waived a number of forwards this season who have made their way back to the active roster eventually, as will likely be the case for Neal.

Saturday: It hasn’t been a great season for James Neal and the news got a little tougher for him today as the team announced (Twitter link) that he has been placed on waivers.

The 33-year-old has been a healthy scratch several times already this season and is off to a quiet start with just two goals and an assist in nine games.  Both goals came in the same game and he was out of the lineup for a week after that. With his lineup spot being far from guaranteed, there’s little risk in putting him on the waiver wire.

Neal has failed to live up to the five-year, $28.75MM contract he signed with Calgary back in 2018 and while he had a bit of a bounce-back 19-goal season with Edmonton last year after being acquired for another free agent mistake in Milan Lucic, he still hasn’t come close to being worth his $5.75MM price tag.  With two years left on his deal after this one, it’s a safe bet he will go through unclaimed.

With Edmonton deep into using LTIR, they’re not going to be in a position to free up some cap space by sending Neal to the taxi squad or to AHL Bakersfield.  Instead, what this move does is just give them a bit of extra roster flexibility to be able to shuffle veterans to and from the taxi squad with ease.  They’ve already gone this route with Devin Shore, Tyler Ennis, and Alex Chiasson this season and now Neal will join the group once he goes unclaimed on Sunday.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/13/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. On a positive note, no new players have been put on the list, but quite a few have been removed from the list. The Los Angeles Kings list is being put together now, but there has been a report from John Hoven that both Blake Lizotte and Andreas Athanasiou are both off the list:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard
Los Angeles – TBA
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dmitry Kulikov, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Taylor Hall (Sabres), Ryan Carpenter (Chicago), Andreas Johnsson (Devils), Janne Kuokkanen (Devils), Michael McLeod (Devils), Kyle Palmieri (Devils), Pavel Zacha (Devils); Anthony Duclair (Panthers), Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers), , Marcus Johansson (Wild), Jared Spurgeon (Wild), Joel Eriksson Ek (Wild), Nick Bjugstad (Wild)

Snapshots: COVID, U18, O’Ree

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The NHL has sent out a memo to its teams detailing further enhanced COVID measures, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The memo includes specifically recommended masks, virtual meetings, removing the glass from the penalty box, further recommendations about remaining at home except for practices/games, and, perhaps most importantly, rapid testing on game days.

Vegas Golden Knights forward Mark Stone spoke about the rapid testing change this morning, one that should hit close to home given his team had a player pulled mid-game recently. Tomas Nosek played two periods before his positive test results forced him out of a Golden Knights game, a situation that rapid testing can hopefully help avoid. Today, the Edmonton Oilers-Montreal Canadiens game has been pushed back an hour to give the league more time to process tests after one Edmonton player was added to the COVID protocol.

  • While the NHL continues to try and navigate their season, international events are starting to be planned for later this year. USA Hockey has announced the 2021 IIHF Under-18 Men’s World Championship, to be held in conjunction with the Dallas Stars in Texas. The event is scheduled for April 26-May 6 and will primarily be held in Frisco, Texas at the Comerica Center.
  • The Boston Bruins will postpone their banner raising ceremony for Willie O’Ree until next year, retiring his number 22 on January 18, 2022, instead, in the hopes that he will be able to attend the event in front of a full arena. That date will be 64 years after O’Ree made his debut as the first Black player in the NHL.

Zack Kassian Placed On Long-Term Injured Reserve

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On Monday, Edmonton Oilers head coach Dave Tippett told reporters including Ryan Rishaug of TSN it was an “understatement” that the team wanted to see Zack Kassian get “a bit more engaged” in games this season. The physical forward had just two minor penalties heading into last night’s game but quickly proved to his coach and teammates that he was still willing to drop the mitts. Kassian fought Erik Gudbranson less than two minutes into the game and the team would go on to win 3-1, but Kassian wouldn’t see the ice again.

Leaving after the fight, Kassian played just 33 seconds and this morning Tippett said he would not play in the rematch tonight. The coach described his absence as week-to-week, though he is still undergoing further evaluation. Meanwhile, CapFriendly reports that Kassian has been placed on long-term injured reserve today thanks to some cap gymnastics the Oilers needed to perform, meaning he’ll miss at least ten games.

Kassian did have 29 hits in 12 games before last night, but had scored just a single goal and registered just three points. That isn’t good enough for a player who received another early chance to line up next to Connor McDavid and his ice time had been slashed heavily in recent games because of it. That means his absence won’t be too noticeable, but it does just test the Oilers’ depth even further. The team has recalled Devin Shore from the taxi squad in the meantime.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Edmonton Oilers Activate Mike Smith Off Of LTIR

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The Edmonton Oilers should get a much-needed boost in goal as the team announced they have activated goaltender Mike Smith from long-term injured reserve. The team has played 13 games this season with starter Mikko Koskinen starting 12 of those 13 games. Stuart Skinner, the team’s backup all this time, has appeared in one game and now has been assigned to the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL.

Smith, who has missed the entire season so far with an undisclosed injury, should immediately provide the team a second NHL-caliber goaltender who can help share net duties rather than force Koskinen to play constantly. In the 12 games he’s played, Koskinen has a 5-7 record with a 3.52 GAA and a .889 save percentage — not numbers of a goalentender who should be playing every game.

Of course, the 38-year-old Smith didn’t exactly put up eye-catching numbers last year either. Smith played 39 games last season, posting a 2.95 GAA and a .902 save percentage. Regardless, those numbers would be quite a bit better than what the Oilers have seen so far this season. Smith is expected to start one of the team’s back-to-back games on Monday or Tuesday against Ottawa.

Smith signed a one-year, $1.5MM this offseason.

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