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Prospect Notes: Tuomaala, Mercuri, St. Louis

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Philadelphia Flyers fans could get a closer look at recent second-round pick Samu Tuomaala much sooner than expected. Speaking at the team’s development camp today, Tuomaala told the media including The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor that he will be playing in North America this season. The Finnish forward actually hopes to play in the AHL (or NHL), but if not will suit up for the OHL’s Sudbury Wolves, his CHL right holder. O’Connor speculates that a decision could be made shortly, with it being more likely he plays junior rather than pro as an 18-year-old, but Tuomaala could have the opportunity to change minds in training camp as well. The No. 46 overall pick in the 2021 NHL Draft, Tuomaala was a first-round caliber talent. A gifted shooter with speed and aggression, the only knocks on Tuomaala are his size and hockey IQ both of which could hinder him in the AHL and hurt his development. Sometime pure talent comes out on top though. Keep an eye on Tuomaala this fall.

  • Do the QMJHL’s Saint John Sea Dogs know something that no one else does? Or are they simply enamored with a 2020 Carolina draft pick? The Sea Dogs have announced that they have acquired Hurricanes prospect Lucas Mercuri as well as fellow forward Olivier Picard and a 2024 seventh-round pick from the Val-d’Or Foreurs in exchange for a 2022 second-round pick and 2024 fifth-round pick. This trade would be more than fair given Mercuri’s ability (36 points in 45 USHL games last year) if not for one crucial detail: Mercuri is committed to UMass and is expected to play in the NCAA this season. There has been no word to the contrary, as by all accounts Mercuri is enrolling in Amherst and playing for the Minutemen this year. After spending the past three years in U.S. playing prep school hockey in Connecticut and then suiting up for the USHL’s Des Moines Buccaneers last season, it certainly seems that the Montreal native is committed to an NCAA development path. So then why give up a top pick? The answer is not Picard, who has 15 points in 77 career QMJHL games, so Saint John either sees enough in the upside of Mercuri to take a shot or they have inside information about a potential unexpected move to the major junior ranks.
  • A new Boston collegiate rivalry is brewing. Lucas St. Louis, son of Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis, has committed to play his college hockey at Harvard. St. Louis’ USHL team, the Dubuque Fighting Saints, announced that their incoming recruit has made his commitment to the Crimson, though the 16-year-old will very likely play at least two USHL seasons before joining Harvard in 2023-24. However, older brother Ryan St. Louis will still be in town, as he is joining Northeastern this season. A graduate of the USNTDP and a surprise absence from the 2021 NHL Draft, St. Louis is a major recruit for the Huskies and could be drafted in 2022 but will very likely play all four years at Northeastern. That will provide some crossover for the brothers as they compete for cross-town rivals. Though Harvard and Northeastern do not share a conference, they do compete in the Beanpot Tournament each year and could easily have scheduled non-conference matchups or NCAA Tournament regional clashes. The sons of an electrifying NHLer, the St. Louis brothers bear watching over the next several years, both as college contributors and potential future pros.

Morning Notes: Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Brown

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The Carolina Hurricanes shot back at the Montreal Canadiens yesterday by submitting an offer sheet for Jesperi Kotkaniemi, but even if they hadn’t there was some concern over the young center’s future in Montreal. Darren Dreger of TSN tweets that earlier this summer, some close to Kotkaniemi predicted that he had already played his last game with the Canadiens. The interesting part, however, is that now he has signed an offer sheet, Montreal can’t trade him for a year even if they decide to match it.

As CapFriendly explains, it would basically mean that the young forward would get a no-trade clause for a year, meaning he’d be earning that entire $6.1MM contract in Montreal. The Hurricanes apparently tried to trade for Kotkaniemi before tendering the offer sheet, but have now tied the Canadiens’ hands in more ways than one.

  • The Ottawa Senators have a restricted free agent of their own still to sign, as Brady Tkachuk still doesn’t have a deal for this season. Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia writes that though things are quiet on that front, it is believed that the Senators are trying for an eight-year contract for their young winger. There’s a brand new comparable to bring up in those talks after Andrei Svechnikov signed his eight-year, $62MM extension in Carolina. Svechnikov was selected just two picks ahead of Tkachuk in 2018 and the two forwards have very similar career stats to this point. Garrioch suggests that if Tkachuk does sign an eight-year deal, it very well may come with the captain’s “C.”
  • At the very end of his piece on Tkachuk, Garrioch includes another short note about RFA forward Logan Brown. The scribe suggests that Brown “could be dealt before camp” and remains unsigned at the moment. Now 23, the 11th overall pick from 2016 has just 30 games of NHL experience under his belt, something he and his agents have expressed frustration about in the past. The 6’6″ forward has played very well at the AHL level, racking up 79 points in 94 games, but has never received a lengthy chance in the NHL. It’s hard to see exactly where he fits in now that the Senators have so many other young forwards and Brown is now eligible for waivers. A fresh start makes sense, though obviously, it remains to be seen if GM Pierre Dorion feels the same.

Hurricanes Tender Offer Sheet To Canadiens’ Jesperi Kotkaniemi

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The old adage surrounding offer sheets is that if one team messes with another team’s restricted free agents, they open themselves up to attack as well. After the Montreal Canadiens tendered an offer sheet to Carolina Hurricanes star Sebastian Aho two years ago, they are now facing the consequences. The ’Canes have returned the favor, announcing (in French at that) they have extended an offer sheet to Habs’ center Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which he has signed. The offer is for one year and $6,100,015. If you thought this wasn’t all about retribution, here is the kicker: the deal also includes a $20 signing bonus – Aho’s jersey number. Also this. The Canadiens have seven days to respond. They would receive first- and third-round picks if they elect not to match.

There are of course salary cap implication aplenty with this offer sheet. Kotkaniemi’s $6.1MM AAV would put Montreal approximately $8.38MM over the salary cap for 22 players with their expected LTIR relief from Shea Weber only coming in at $7.86MM. In order to match the offer sheet, the Canadiens will have to shed salary this season, enough to fit the overage and another player to round out the roster. Perhaps even more importantly, their starting number for negotiations with Kotkaniemi again next off-season begins with a $6.1MM qualifying offer. For a team with numerous expensive, long-term contracts, that simply may not be palatable. Of course, the Hurricanes face these same risks. The team would go approximately $1.52MM over the salary cap by adding Kotkaniemi, albeit with a full 23-man roster. They also could easily open up the space if they opt to again waive defenseman Jake Gardiner and his $4.05MM cap hit. The more pressing question then is whether Kotkaniemi lives up to his cap hit, which will also serve as his new QO. At the cost of a first and a third, Carolina will want to make sure Kotkaniemi is not just a one-year rental.

This all boils down to how much the Habs value Kotkaniemi, as the Hurricanes – while they had ulterior motives – clearly felt that the $6.1MM cap hit was warranted for the 21-year-old forward. Kotkaniemi, the third overall pick in 2018, has certainly shown flashes of star power. While his regular season numbers are unspectacular with 62 points in 171 NHL games, his playoff production has been stellar with nine goals and twelve points in 29 games. And while Kotkaniemi is still working on some of the fundamentals of the center position, he is a phenomenal possession player and is starting to fill out his frame and become a more physical presence. Kotkaniemi’s value is all about upside at his age. Both teams certainly see it, but only one team has ponied up the cost thus far (at least for one year). All but one offer sheet has been matched since the turn of the century. Will Montreal follow suit?

Though one of the most entertaining stories in roster building in recent memory, and not just in hockey, Carolina’s vicious response to Montreal’s attempted poaching of Aho two years ago is only likely to further deplete the likelihood of offer sheets, which are already considered a MacGuffin to most. Enjoy this while it last, it could be the final one for some time.

Carolina Hurricanes Announce ECHL Affiliation

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The Carolina Hurricanes have partnered with the Norfolk Admirals of the ECHL for the 2021-22 season, once again giving them a three-tiered development system. Hurricanes GM Don Waddell released a statement on the deal:

We’re excited to partner with the Norfolk Admirals and have some of our Hurricanes prospects playing just three hours down the road in Virginia. Owned and led by former Admirals player Patrick Cavanagh, the Admirals have a proud history and following in Hampton Roads.

The Hurricanes were previously partnered with the Greenville Swamp Rabbits, but they followed the Charlotte Checkers to an agreement with the Florida Panthers last year. Carolina will now have the Admirals and Chicago Wolves as their two minor league teams, both independently owned and operated. Unfortunately, that means the team will no longer have the geographical advantages that came with having their affiliates so closely grouped.

Still, this is a big day for Norfolk, who will now have the support of an NHL franchise again, one that is relatively close by. The team will be able to house some of the Hurricanes’ more raw prospects, likely including at least one of the team’s signed goaltenders.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Andrei Svechnikov

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The Carolina Hurricanes have worked out a deal with one of their most important players. Andrei Svechnikov, a restricted free agent this summer, has signed an eight-year contract with the Hurricanes that will carry an average annual value of $7.75MM. GM Don Waddell released a statement on the deal:

Andrei is one of the cornerstones of this organization, and we are thrilled to reach a long-term commitment to keep him here. He is one of the brightest rising stars in our sport, and will play a key role in our efforts to bring the Stanley Cup to the Triangle this decade.

The contract contains a modified no-trade clause (Svechnikov will submit a list of ten teams he can be traded to) in the four unrestricted free agent years that it buys out, and the full salary breakdown is as follows:

  • 2021-22: $2.0MM salary + $4.0MM signing bonus
  • 2022-23: $7.0MM salary
  • 2023-24: $9.0MM salary
  • 2024-25: $9.0MM salary
  • 2025-26: $10.0MM salary
  • 2026-27: $7.0MM salary
  • 2027-28: $6.0MM salary
  • 2028-29: $8.0MM salary

Since being the second-overall pick in 2018, Svechnikov has done what he always does–score. The 21-year-old forward has 59 goals and 140 points in 205 career games, including a strong 42-point effort in the shortened 2020-21 campaign. His size, skill, and skating ability make him a threat all over the ice, carrying the puck through the neutral zone or battling in front of the net for space. It’s hard to find many more well-rounded wingers in the league, and Svechnikov appears to be just scratching the surface of his offensive upside.

While this may seem like a huge salary for a player coming out of his entry-level contract (and it is), the deal represents a ton of security for the Hurricanes. They now have their young star locked in through basically all of his prime years at a relatively reasonable price. Skipping a bridge deal means that they won’t get any savings over the next two or three seasons, but buying out four UFA seasons is a big win for the Hurricanes. They can now move forward knowing exactly how much their top forwards cost. Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen both have three years left on their respective deals.

Not that Svechnikov is missing out. The young forward will have the 49th highest cap hit in the NHL this season, and though that will drop down a few pegs as he moves forward and other players ink more expensive deals, he’s still being paid quite handsomely. If he does turn into the 40-goal, MVP-type that some believe he can be, it will be a steal for the Hurricanes. But more likely is that he’s paid appropriately for his impact and the team can build around him as the salary cap gets back on track.

This deal will be used as a comparable by other restricted free agents around the league, though the player agents may not be very excited about it. Brady Tkachuk, for instance, who was drafted just two spots after Svechnikov in 2018 and has similar offensive numbers through the first part of his career, is also an RFA with the Ottawa Senators.

The Hurricanes though are now finished with their RFA negotiations, meaning they have certainty over their cap situation for 2021-22. They currently project to have a little more than $4.5MM, meaning they could potentially go after another UFA or target a bigger contract in trade.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Senators, Slepets, Rossi

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As the Ottawa Senators look to finally move past their extended rebuild and take a step toward relevance this season, it is about time they name a leader of this next stage for the franchise. Speaking with the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, Senators head coach D.J. Smith stated that “It’s time for someone to be the leader of this group.” Smith believes that Ottawa is ready to name a captain after a three-season hiatus and tells Garrioch that he intends to speak with owner Eugene Melnyk and GM Pierre Dorion about making a decision before the end of training camp. The last player to wear the “C” was Erik Karlsson during the 2017-18 season and the Senators have used only alternates in the years since. However, with young defenseman Thomas Chabot signed long-term and young forward Brady Tkachuk hoping to join him for years to come, the Senators have two players that can be the face of the franchise for many years and either one would be a good pick as captain. Which one will be a difficult and important decision for the young locker room, which is why the organization’s leaders have taken their time and will still wait to name a captain until closer to the beginning of the season.

  • The odds of Carolina Hurricanes prospect Kirill Slepets making the jump to North America any time soon took another hit today. Just two weeks ago, Slepets re-signed in the KHL on a one-year deal with Spartak Moscow. The move came on the heels of a poor season for Slepets in which he played exclusively in the second-tier VHL rather than the KHL and led some to believe that the 22-year-old may cross the pond to continue his development. Instead, he stayed in Russia and after today’s trade may be settling in for an extended stay. Spartak has traded Slepets to his hometown team, Amur Khabarovsk, the club announced. Going the other way was former NHL forward Andrei Loktionov, proving that Slepets still has value in the KHL despite a down year. He has even more value to Amur, who are very excited to bring the prodigal son home and could be able to convince him to stay long-term. The 2019 fifth-round pick remains an interesting project to watch for the Hurricanes, especially given the ability he flashed at the junior level, but his NHL future is more in doubt now than ever.
  • Minnesota Wild prospect Marco Rossi has no doubt that he is ready to compete for an NHL roster spot after missing this past season due to an extensive battle with COVID-19. The 2020 No. 9 overall pick has been working out hard to get back into game shape and will get his first test this week suiting up for Austria in the Olympic qualifiers. However, he is already looking ahead to Wild training camp and is confident that he can make impact in Minnesota this year. Talking to The Athletic’s Michael Russo, Rossi stated the following:

I know I haven’t played a lot of games in the last year, year and a half, but now that I can see my fitness level and my shape, I know I’m better in shape than a lot of NHL players. I see no doubt about it that I can play in the NHL. I know I can play there. I know how good I am, but I have to prove myself in training camp that I’m ready for that. I know it’s going to be up to me to show I’m ready to play right away.

Free Agent Profile: James Neal

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Things have fallen sharply for veteran forward James Neal since his storybook season with the inaugural Vegas Golden Knights. After scoring 25 goals and 44 points in 2017-18 to mark his 10th consecutive season of scoring 20 or more goals, Neal signed a now-infamous five-year, $28.75MM deal with the Calgary Flames on the second day of free agency in 2018. He only lasted one season in Calgary on that contract, however, scoring just seven goals and 19 points, sometimes serving as a healthy scratch.

But many thought redemption was in order for Neal when a swap with the Edmonton Oilers sent him to Northern Alberta in exchange for Milan Lucic. With the chance for Neal to play with one or both of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, 20 goals or more was again the expectation for the consistently gifted scorer. Neal didn’t quite hit the mark, but would’ve if the season hadn’t been cut short due to COVID-19 – his bounce-back season in Edmonton saw him score 19 goals and 31 points in 55 games, numbers reminiscent of his time in Vegas.

However, Neal’s decline accelerated this season, and his numbers once again plummeted to unacceptable depths for his $5.75MM cap hit. He’s now a free agent after being bought out by the Oilers on July 27th, a buyout that’ll see Neal cost them $1.917MM against the cap for the next four seasons. 2020-21 was Neal’s roughest season yet, actually, spending almost half of the 56-game season sitting in the press box. His shooting percentage and time on ice fell sharply as Neal’s lack of strong play-driving cost him a significant role at even strength.

Neal still carries veteran leadership and name recognition. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s played in 11 straight playoffs, totaling 58 points in 110 games over that timeframe. It remains to be seen whether teams will value that experience enough to extend Neal a contract offer.

Stats

2020-21: 29 GP, 5-5-10, -2 rating, 11 PIMS, 51 shots, 49.3% CF, 12:06 ATOI
Career: 850 GP, 294-261-555, +8 rating, 581 PIMS, 2,483 shots, 53.2% CF, 17:22 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The good news here for James Neal is that there are still plenty of teams looking to add affordable, experienced depth, especially on the wings. There are still a few options that make sense for the 33-year-old Ontario-born winger.

The Carolina Hurricanes come to mind immediately as a team that’s still looking to fill out their forward group, especially their depth in the bottom-six. Neal fits well in this role for them, especially considering the limited scoring upside of some current options in Jordan Martinook, Steven Lorentz, and Stefan Noesen. If paired with a strong play-driver and playmaker like Jordan Staal, Neal’s scoring touch could give a boost to Carolina’s third line.

If Neal wants to chase a Stanley Cup, and if the interest is mutual, the Colorado Avalanche also make a decent amount of sense. For a team that lost both Brandon Saad and Joonas Donskoi this offseason, his double-digit scoring upside is more palatable than that of someone like Darren Helm’s or Stefan Matteau’s. The New Jersey Devils also come to mind as a squad who could still use some additional veteran presence to help propel a potential playoff push this season.

Projected Contract

Neal was not included on our Top 50 UFA list, as he hadn’t been bought out at the time of publishing. But it’s still hard to imagine Neal receiving anything more than the $1MM range on a one-year contract, considering he hasn’t been inked to a deal already. Neal finds himself in a similar situation to that of Jason Spezza a few years back — a once consistent talent who’d seen his numbers drop in recent seasons. Spezza took a league-minimum $700,000 (at the time) contract to stay in the league, and it’s a strong possibility Neal will have to do the same.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Ville Koivunen

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The Carolina Hurricanes weren’t done when they signed Aleski Heimosalmi earlier today. The team has also inked fellow second-round pick Ville Koivunen to a three-year entry-level deal. Hurricanes GM Don Waddell released a short statement:

Ville is a skilled, competitive winger. He continues to improve every year, and we are excited to watch him develop as a pro.

Koivunen, selected seven picks after Heimosalmi as the team’s third 2021 second-rounder, is coming off a brilliant season with Karpat’s junior program. He scored 49 points in 38 games in the U20 league, earning Rookie of the Year honors. He signed a multi-year agreement with the professional club earlier this year and could be in line to make his Liiga debut this season.

Like his fellow draft pick, the 18-year-old Koivunen will likely continue his development overseas for at least one season, perhaps more. He was also included on Finland’s Summer Showcase roster, meaning he could potentially be among the group that participates in the next World Juniors.

It’s that brilliant offensive upside that makes him so dangerous when playing against juniors, but will be tested at the professional ranks. Undersized, he’ll need to find a way to score even against bigger, more experienced defensemen to provide real value. If he can do it in Liiga, perhaps there will be an opportunity for him to come to North America in the near future. For now, his entry-level contract will slide forward while he plies his trade overseas.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Aleksi Heimosalmi

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The Carolina Hurricanes have added to their Finnish contingent once again, this time signing draft pick Aleksi Heimosalmi to a three-year entry-level contract. Hurricanes GM Don Waddell released a short statement:

Aleksi is a highly skilled, two-way defenseman. We’re excited for him to take the next steps in his development.

Selected 44th overall in 2021, Heimosalmi is expected to make his Liiga debut this season for Assat after signing a three-year deal with the Finnish team earlier this year. With this new deal in place with Carolina, it’s not clear if the young defenseman will spend that entire time overseas, but for this season at least it is likely he continues his development in Europe.

Not only did Heimosalmi find a ton of success at the junior level for Assat, but he also dominated the U18 World Juniors, earning Best Defenseman honors for the whole tournament after racking up eight points in seven games. The smooth-skating defender has quite a way to go before he challenges for an NHL spot, but there’s no rush thanks to a strong depth chart in Carolina.

Maxime Lajoie Agrees To Terms With Carolina

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The Carolina Hurricanes have agreed to terms with defenseman Maxime Lajoie, signing him to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will pay $750K at the NHL level, $75K at the AHL level and comes with a minor league guarantee of $100K.

Lajoie, 23, notably stepped into the Hurricanes lineup in the postseason, making his debut with the team against the Nashville Predators in the first round. The young defenseman had played just six NHL games since his breakout season in 2018-19, when he surprisingly made the Ottawa Senators roster out of camp and played in 56 games.

Though he has been limited to mostly minor league duty since, there’s still NHL upside in the young defenseman, as shown by the strong performance he had with the Chicago Wolves this year. In 27 AHL games, he posted 21 points, leading all Wolves defensemen.

There’s little chance that Lajoie finds his way into the NHL lineup this season unless massive injury troubles hit the Hurricanes—they added Ian Cole, Ethan Bear, Anthony DeAngelo and Brendan Smith in the offseason—but he can keep developing in a strong AHL program and potentially push for a spot down the road.

Of course, there are waivers to consider, as Lajoie is not exempt and would need to clear in order to be sent to the minor leagues. That wasn’t a problem last season, when he cleared for the Ottawa Senators (only to be traded a day later), but there’s always a chance that someone decides he’s worth a claim this time around.

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