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Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part I

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not return to action soon and when play resumes, it will almost certainly not be the full remaining regular season schedule. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, perhaps even keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

Here is a rundown of the top compliance buyout candidates for the first third of NHL teams:

Anaheim Ducks: Adam Henrique

– The first team on the list is a tough call. Henrique has had a good season and the Ducks are not in significant cap trouble. However, with a long list of promising forward prospects and a defense that needs work, the team could opt to move on from the veteran forward and to create roster space and cap flexibility. Henrique, 30, is signed for four more years at $5.825MM.

Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel

– The Coyotes are in one of the worst positions in the league in terms of cap space, so the team would have to use a compliance buyout if the opportunity is offered to them. Kessel has been a relative bust in his first season with the ‘Yotes and is signed for two more years at $6.8MM. He has the potential to improve in year two, but Arizona may not have the luxury of taking the chance. The added cap space would be a major relief for the team.

Boston Bruins: John Moore

– Given the Bruins’ depth on defense in both veteran assets and budding prospects as well as Moore’s relegation to a backup role on the Boston blue line, he has become an expendable asset, especially if both Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug are back next season. Moore is signed longer than any current Bruins defenseman with three years and $8.25MM remaining, but the team’s commitment to him seems less than any of his fellow blue liners.

Buffalo Sabres: Kyle Okposo

– Unfortunately for the Sabres, the Okposo signing in 2016 has never panned out. His production dropped from 64 points with the New York Islanders in 2015-16 to just 45 points in his first year in Buffalo and that total has gone down in every year since. Okposo was on pace for just 24 points this year and may not even reach that mark. The Sabres would be quick to part ways with Okposo, who has three years at $6MM annually left on his contract, taking up valuable cap space that the team needs to use to improve the rest of their roster.

Calgary Flames: Milan Lucic

– Even with the salary being retained by the Edmonton Oilers on Lucic’s contract, his $5.25MM cap hit is still a pain for the Flames. The veteran power forward is not going to score 20+ goals or 50+ points in a season ever again and Calgary could do more with the added cap space over the next three years.

Carolina Hurricanes: Jake Gardiner

– For whatever reason, the Gardiner signing simply has not worked out as the Hurricanes had hoped. Gardiner, who was signed late last summer at a relative discount, has been a fine addition, but hasn’t been the point producer and power play ace that Carolina had hoped for. Following the deadline addition of Brady Skjei to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL already, Gardiner and his remaining three years and $12.15MM are expendable.

Chicago Blackhawks: Brent Seabrook

– One of the more obvious choices on this list, Seabrook’s contract may the worst in the NHL right now. The 34-year-old has four years left at $6.875MM AAV on an eight-year, $55MM deal signed back in 2015. Over the term of the contract, Seabrook has declined rapidly and is a shell of his former self, regardless of health. The cap-strapped Blackhawks would not think twice about moving on.

Colorado Avalanche: Erik Johnson

– Johnson is a well-liked and well-respected long-time member of the Avalanche. However, as time has gone on the team has surrounded him with better, younger, and more affordable blue line options. As valuable as Johnson’s experience and leadership may be, he is an expendable piece without a clear future role. Signed through 2022-23 at a $6MM cap hit, Johnson is an expensive piece to keep around just for the intangibles and the Avs could look to use this opportunity to clear some space for some anticipated big game hunting this off-season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg

– Blue Jackets fans have been calling for Wennberg’s head for years now and may finally get their wish. The once-promising young forward turned a 59-point 2016-17 season into a six-year, $29.4MM contract and then proceeded to regress immensely over the past few seasons instead of continuing to improve as expected. With another three years left at $4.9MM per, Wennberg doesn’t seem likely to get back to a level of play that would warrant his current cap hit and Columbus could move on, even from a 25-year-old homegrown product.

Dallas Stars: Andrew Cogliano

– The Stars are a team with numerous big names and long contracts, but their most inefficient name might just be Cogliano. Rather than using a buyout to move a heavy cap hit, Dallas could opt to trim the fat by removing a player that hasn’t been a good fit. Cogliano has showed that his six points in 32 games last season with the Stars following a trade from Anaheim was not a fluke; he followed it up with 14 points through 68 games this year. Expecting Cogliano to get back to 30+ point form in 2020-21 in his final year at $3.25MM seems hopeful at best and Dallas could use that space elsewhere with some lineup holes to fill this summer.

Stay tuned for Part II coming soon.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Filip Sveningsson Released By His SHL Team

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  • Flames prospect Filip Sveningsson confirmed to Simon Holm Stalhand of Hockey Sverige that has been released from his SHL team in Oskarshamn. The winger was a seventh-round pick back in 2017 after a strong showing offensively at the junior level.  However, that has yet to carry over to the pros as injuries and general ineffectiveness limited him to just two goals and two assists in 29 SHL games this season.  Sveningsson indicated that some other teams in Sweden have shown interest but if Calgary has any plans on signing him (they have until June of 2021 to do so), this would be a good opportunity to bring him over to North America.

College Notes: Dhooghe, Rathbone, Flames, UFA’s

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When college hockey returns next season, standout defenseman Sean Dhooghe will be donning a different jersey. Dhooghe, 21, announced on his personal Twitter account this afternoon that he will be leaving the University of Wisconsin to play his fourth and final NCAA season with Arizona State University. While this may seem like a downgrade at first glance, Wisconsin was more bark than bite this season, falling incredibly short of their preseason title as national championship contenders. Additionally, the program has lost two of its best players to the NHL in recent weeks in the L.A. Kings’ Alex Turcotte and the New York Rangers’ K’Andre Miller. Meanwile, Arizona State again exceeded expectations this season and was likely to qualify for the NCAA tournament for a second year in a row, despite being the most recent addition to Division I college hockey. Dhooghe will have a better chance to stand out and to shake off a down year by his standards by joining an ASU roster that is not as deep as Wisconsin on paper, but he also may have better odds at NCAA postseason glory as well.

Dhooghe, who jumped straight from the U.S. National Team Development Program to the college ranks, is a skilled forward who has been a fixture for the U.S. at international camps and events over the years. He plays a smart game with great vision and skating and excels in space. Why then might you not have heard of him? Dhooghe makes “undersized” look like an understatement, standing at 5’3” and 150 lbs. His size wasn’t a factor in junior and he hasn’t let it affect his game at the college level too much, but it is fair to have serious doubts about his pro potential. He hopes to silence his critics with a big first – and last – season at Arizona State next year, which he hopes is followed up by a pro contract.

  • Harvard University is still waiting to see if they will have a top defenseman back next season, while on the other side the Vancouver Canucks are waiting to see if they could have yet another elite rookie on the back end next season. Blue liner Jack Rathbone, a 2017 fourth-round selection, told TSN 1040 radio in Vancouver today that with everything going on right now, he and his family will continue to take some time to make a decision. There is no hurry for the talented defender to make a call and he wants to be sure to make the right one. A superstar at the prep school level with Dexter, Rathbone still was not expected to take the giant steps that he has at Harvard in just two seasons, developing into one of the stronger all-around defenseman in all of college hockey. However, he still has another two years left of NCAA eligibility and may want to wait for a more secure role in the NHL with Vancouver. With plenty of other talented prospects on the roster, Harvard hopes that Rathbone returns to lead the team to the NCAA Tournament next year.
  • The Calgary Flames are using their time off wisely, making a major splash today by signing arguably the top two UFA college defenders on the market: Minnesota State’s Connor Mackey and North Dakota’s Colton Poolman. Yet, they still aren’t done. Sportsnet’s Pat Steinberg reports that the team is still “working hard” on college free agent forward. While Calgary is not exactly weak in the pipeline, they somehow have become a top landing spot for NCAA talent this spring.
  • If the Flames really want to cash in on college free agency, that unnamed forward prospect that they are negotiating with would be Jordan Kawaguchi, North Dakota teammate of Poolman and a top candidate for the Hobey Baker Award. Kawaguchi, while only a junior, is expected by many to forego his senior season and sign in the NHL. After posting 45 points in 33 games to finish second in the NCAA scoring race and lead one of the best team’s in the nation, Kawaguchi doesn’t have much left to prove at the college level. While somewhat small, the cousin of Devin Setoguchi plays a similarly skilled and instinctual offensive game. Whether it be Calgary of another team, whoever lands Kawaguchi will land an intriguing prospect with a high ceiling. Joining Kawaguchi on the list of undrafted underclassmen worth watching on the open market are Minnesota State goalie Dryden McKay, the NCAA’s top keeper this season, and UMass forward Mitchell Chaffee, who is coming off another point-per-game season and has all the making of an effective pro.

Calgary Flames Sign Connor Mackey, Colton Poolman

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The Calgary Flames have won the sweepstakes for one of the top college free agents, signing Connor Mackey to a one-year entry-level contract. The deal will kick in for the 2020-21 season, and gives the Flames another potential NHL option on defense. The team has also officially announced the signing of Colton Poolman, first reported earlier this week.

Mackey, 23, is the real prize here, as several NHL teams were pursuing him following another outstanding season at Minnesota State University-Mankato. In fact, Mackey was one of the most sought-after names a year ago before deciding to return for his junior season. The 6’2″ defenseman is a polished two-way player, who recorded 24 points in 36 games this season and was just recently named a WCHA First Team All-Star.

There are some who believe that Mackey can become a top-four NHL defenseman, given his puck-moving ability and tenacity in his own end. That dream may still be a distant thought, but there’s no doubt that the Flames have added real depth today by bringing in Mackey and Poolman.

The latter is an interesting prospect in his own right. The younger brother of Winnipeg Jets defenseman Tucker Poolman, Colton captained the University of North Dakota as a senior and recorded 17 points in 31 games.

For a Flames organization that has spent several draft picks to upgrade the NHL roster in recent years, while also graduating some of their young defensemen to the top level, there was a real need for minor league depth on the back end. Both Mackey and Poolman will have plenty of opportunity to show what they can do.

College Notes: Perunovich, Poolman, McLaughlin

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Among the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker award, there are several seniors that don’t have much of a decision coming for them this summer. Their college careers are over, and they’ll be starting their professional careers in one fashion or another. Some of the others however, including St. Louis Blues draft pick Scott Perunovich, still have college eligibility remaining and could return.

The potential Blues’ prospect is one of considerable intrigue, especially after making a post on Instagram yesterday thanking his teammates and the Minnesota-Duluth program. For a player as accomplished as the UMD junior, signing his entry-level contract for 2019-20 and making his NHL debut was a possibility. With the season now up in the air, it’s unclear how the negotiations will proceed. The 21-year old defenseman had 105 points in 115 games at the college level and could be an impact player quickly for the Blues.

  • Brad Elliott Schlossman of the Grand Forks Herald reports that the Calgary Flames are a frontrunner for the services of Colton Poolman, an undrafted collegiate defenseman out of the University of North Dakota. The younger brother of Winnipeg Jets defenseman Tucker Poolman, Colton captained UND this season and recorded 17 points in 31 games. Not quite as big as his brother, the younger Poolman is also already 24 and will have to cover a lot of development ground quickly if he wants to become a regular NHL player.
  • Jake McLaughlin, another undrafted college defenseman about to turn 24, has minor league contract offers from six different teams according to AHL reporter Mark Divver. McLaughlin recently finished his senior season at UMass, scoring 14 points in 34 games. UPDATE (3/19): McLaughlin is officially off the market. The Amherst standout, who was one of the NCAA’s best defensive defenseman this season, has signed an AHL deal with the Vegas Golden Knights, per Divver. Seeing as this is a contract beginning in 2020-21, McLaughlin could technically be considered the first ever signing by the future Henderson Silver Knights, the soon-to-be-relocated version of the San Antonio Rampage, who were purchased by Vegas last month.

Trade Conditions Hinging On Regular Season Games

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There’s little doubt that the NHL would prefer to resume the season and play out the remaining regular season games, but speculation still swirls that it may need to move directly into the playoffs depending on how long this “pause” lasts. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) spoke with deputy commissioner Bill Daly who made it clear that nothing has been decided yet, but that next year’s season will not be shortened even if the playoffs leak into the summer.

If the final dozen or so games are cancelled and the league decides to move directly into the playoffs it would certainly ruffle some feathers given the standings and points percentages right now, but there are other things to consider if a chunk of the season is lopped off.

Perhaps most notably (other than the drastic financial impact it might have on next year’s cap) are how a shortened season would affect trade conditions. This is probably the last thing on the minds of league officers, but fans have already started wondering about some of the deals their teams have made in the past. Below, we’ll look at a couple of those conditions that might be influenced by a loss of the remaining games.

Toronto acquires Jack Campbell (link)

When the Maple Leafs went out a few weeks before the trade deadline and acquired their backup goaltender, an interesting condition was attached to one of the third-round selections heading back to the Los Angeles Kings. Should the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 2019-20 and Campbell wins six regular season games, the 2021 third would upgrade to a second-round pick.

Through six appearances for Toronto Campbell already had three wins, and was likely going to get a few more opportunities down the stretch. If the season ends without any more regular season games, the Kings will have to hope that Toronto decides to re-sign Kyle Clifford if they want that second rounder.

Carolina acquires Sami Vatanen (link)

The Hurricanes went out at the deadline and bought, acquiring three impact players in the process. While Vincent Trocheck and Brady Skjei immediately made an impact, Vatanen suffered a setback in his recovery and looked like he might miss the majority of Carolina’s remaining games. The fact that he hadn’t played for them yet made it look like the conditions on a 2020 fourth-round pick wouldn’t be met, but this break actually may result in a positive for the New Jersey Devils (at least in this case).

There are two games played thresholds involved in the deal for Vatanen at five and 12, which suddenly don’t seem that difficult to meet if the pause allows him to recover. Of course that would require the regular season games to be played in this scenario.

Edmonton, Calgary swap Milan Lucic, James Neal (link)

This is the one you’ve been waiting for, given how ridiculous the condition seemed at the time of the trade. To refresh your memory, the Flames will receive a 2020 third-round selection if Neal scores 21 goals and outscores Lucic by at least 10. Neal is currently 11 goals ahead of Lucic on the season, but has just 19 total. If those regular season games never get played, it would seem that the condition has not been met. Perhaps there is a prorated version in the fine print, but as of now the deal looks to be “one-for-one.”

Snapshots: League Cancellations, Bjugstad, Hamonic

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As the spread of COVID-19 continues around the world, professional sports leagues and organizations are starting to feel the effects. The San Jose Sharks are the first NHL team that is dealing with the consequences, as gatherings of more than 1,000 people have been banned in Santa Clara county. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic (subscription required) examined the situation in full, noting that the possibility exists that the Sharks will play in front of no fans later this month.

It’s not just individual teams feeling the changes though. Today, both the EBEL and DEL, leagues in Austria and Germany respectively, have cancelled the remainder of their seasons, including playoffs. The EBEL also includes teams from Hungary, Italy and the Czech Republic.

  • It has become routine among the Pittsburgh Penguins this season to expect injury, though one still has to feel for Nick Bjugstad. The forward has suffered another lower-body injury that is unrelated to any prior, and has been listed as “week-to-week” once again according to head coach Mike Sullivan. Bjugstad has played just 13 games this season, scoring two points.
  • Travis Hamonic was back at practice in full for the Calgary Flames today, skating alongside T.J. Brodie on the second defense pairing. That suggests the veteran defenseman will return to the Flames’ lineup later this week for the first time in over a month. Calgary is barely holding onto their third place position in the Pacific Division, meaning Hamonic’s return will be a welcome one as they prepare for the stretch run.

Travis Hamonic Participates In A Full Practice

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  • Flames defenseman Travis Hamonic participated in his first full practice since being injured early last month, reports Sportsnet 960’s Pat Steinberg (Twitter link). He still has to get the green light to take contact so he’s still not quite ready to return but the fact he’s now participating in practice means he’s close.  He sits third on the team in ice time per game at over 21 minutes a night and will be a big addition to their back end when he’s cleared to return.

Overseas Notes: Coronavirus, World Championships, Sticks, Jokipakka

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As the coronavirus crisis continues to creep into every corner of day-to-day life, it was only a matter of time before it started to have a major impact on hockey. IIHF President Rene Fasel has revealed to the Swiss media that the threat of coronavirus is being taken seriously as it pertains to upcoming international tournaments. Fasel states that the IIHF’s medical commission is currently meeting to discuss the potential cancellations of any international events in March and April. This would include the U-18 World Junior Championships, scheduled to be held in Michigan in April. Should the sickness persist, the IIHF will also have to consider cancelling the 2020 World Championships, slated to take place in Switzerland in May. Fasel gives March 15th as the date when these difficult decisions will begin to have to be made. This appears to be a decision based wholly on health risks, as the tournaments are insured against cancellation and neither the IIHF nor the hosts would be facing financial loss. With that said, Fasel also ruled out the possibility that tournaments could still be held but just closed to the public. With no end to the coronavirus outbreak in sight, it appears more likely than not that the U-18’s and World Championships this year could be the next victims of the disease.

  • Of course, this is not the first link between coronavirus and hockey, as the mass shutdown of the Chinese economy has greatly limited the supply of sticks to the NHL and other levels of the game. Both Bauer and CCM have their primary factories in the country most greatly affected by this outbreak and neither have been in operation for weeks, while shipping to North America has also been halted. Players across the league have begun to stock up on sticks as they face the possibility of a coming shortage. NHL players, who often order custom sticks in small batches, may have to work with what they have through the rest of the season and possibly into the postseason.
  • In non-pandemic news, former NHLer Jyrki Jokipakka has benefited greatly from a move to Europe. Now with his second team in his third season since leaving North America, Jokipakka was the undisputed top defender for the KHL’s Sibir Novosibirk this season, leading the team in time on ice and finishing near the top in assists, points, and blocked shots. He also finished among the top-ten producers on defense league-wide. While Sibir has not yet begun their Gagarin Cup playoff campaign, Jokipakka is already the bright spot of the season for the team. The club opted to reward him for his success with a new two-year extension. Jokipakka flashed ability in the NHL, but never able to put it all together in stops with the Dallas Stars, Calgary Flames, and Ottawa Senators. So, while the 28-year-old could have waited to see if there was NHL interest this off-season, it seems like he has made the right choice to stick with where he has finally found consistent success and is valued as a top contributor.

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