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PHR Playoff Primer: New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers.

There was a time in the 1990’s where it seemed like the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils would meet in the playoffs every spring. Now in 2023, they meet in the playoffs for the first time in 11 years. The last time the two teams met it was a dramatic back and forth six game Eastern Conference Finals series that ended with an Adam Henrique overtime goal to catapult the Devils into the Stanley Cup Finals.

What a difference a decade plus makes. The Devils haven’t won a series since that dramatic overtime victory, while the Rangers have won a lot of playoff hockey but haven’t been able to capture hockey’s ultimate prize. The battle of the Hudson River has always been a bitter rivalry, but it’s been a while since so much has been on the line for both teams.

The Devils and Rangers enter the playoffs poised to make a deep run, but only one will be able to escape the first round. This matchup may not be the most anticipated series in the first round, but it does seem like the series most likely to produce fireworks. The Devils believe they are destined for greatness, and they probably are, but will that happen this year, or will the Rangers make another deep playoff run?

Regular Season Performance

New Jersey Devils: 52-22-8, 112 points, +65 goal differential
New York Rangers: 47-22-13, 107 points, +58 goal differential.

Head-To-Head

November 28, 2022: New York 3, New Jersey 5

December 12, 2022: New York 4, New Jersey 3 (OT)

January 7, 2023: New Jersey 4, New York 3 (OT)

March 30, 2023: New Jersey 2, New York 1

New Jersey takes the season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Devils and Rangers franchises have had so much in common over the years, and even still do to some degree. Both franchises loaded up for these playoffs, can score in bunches and expect to go deep in the playoffs. But that is where the similarities end. They are built differently, have different experience, and have different strengths and weaknesses.

New Jersey plays with a ton of speed and skill, they push the pace and come at you in waves. But they are small. New York on the other hand plays big, they come at you with force and can crash over top of you. But they play slow in comparison. In a seven-game series it’s hard to predict who will bend first, will New York wear New Jersey down with their physicality? Or will the Devils tire out the Rangers with their pace? Advantage New Jersey.

On the backend, both teams boast strong blue lines. They both have shutdown defenseman, puck movers, point producers, speed, skill, and grit. The Rangers defense can do it all, they are one of the most elite units in the league, if not the most elite. They can’t move the puck quite as good as the Devils unit can, but they are much more physical. And in the playoff’s physicality can sometimes mean getting that extra inch of space to make a play, or providing that big hit that completely changes a series, just ask Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. Advantage New York.

In goal, the comparisons dry up. New York boasts arguably the best goaltender in the world in Igor Shesterkin. But, after having a historic season last year, Shesterkin has looked human for much of this year. He has been up and down, evidenced by his drop in save percentage from .935 last year to .916 this season. For the Rangers to beat the Devils in a seven-game series, Shesterkin will need to play at a Vezina award winning level. Over in the Devils net Vitek Vanecek has given the Devils something they were desperately looking for, league average goaltending. Vanecek’s save percentage this year was .911 which was just a tick above his career average coming into this season. While Vanecek has never had an experience like this before and will have to deal with nerves, Shesterkin looked very human in last year’s playoffs and for long stretches of this past regular season. Despite his up and down play this year, one would have to believe that the goaltending advantage belongs to New York.

I mentioned star power earlier and both teams boast a ton of it up front and on the back end. The stars aren’t all home grown either, both teams have made significant trades over the last 12 months to bring in major pieces that they hope can give them that final push. The Rangers brought in Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko at the trade deadline, and while neither player his lit up the scoresheet, they have both provided secondary scoring. Kane has produced 12 points in 19 games since joining the Rangers, while Tarasenko has 21 points in 31 games. On the Devils side, they acquired arguably the biggest piece at the deadline in Timo Meier. Meier has also struggled to fit in but seems to be finally finding his footing. The former San Jose Shark has 14 points in 21 games since joining the Devils.

Ironically, the line that could set these teams apart might be a group of homegrown talent for the New York Rangers. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko were dynamite together in the playoffs last season, particularly in the first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They were a difference maker on a nightly basis. This season all three players have hovered around the 40-point mark during the regular season. If the trio can dial it back to 2022 and produce anything close to last year’s playoff magic it could be the difference between a Rangers series win, or a Devils series win.

Prediction

It’s hard to predict who will win a series when the teams are this evenly matched. When a matchup like this does occur, you must imagine that it will come down to whichever team can get their goaltender on a heater. Last year the Rangers outlasted Pittsburgh because the Penguins had to rely on their third string goaltender. This year they’ll have to hope that Shesterkin can return to his Vezina winning form to get past the Devils.

The other element that comes into play is experience. New York has a ton of experienced playoff performers, and the Devils are green. In a toss-up, this could be the piece that pushes one team past the other.

The prediction: Rangers win in seven games.

Henri Jokiharju Won’t Return To Tonight’s Game

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The Buffalo Sabres have announced that defenseman Henri Jokiharju won’t return to tonight’s game after leaving with a lower body injury. Jokiharju left the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets after logging just 2:43 of ice time a registering a single shot. The former first round pick will finish the season with 13 points in 60 games.

The 23-year-old is in his fourth season with Buffalo after coming over to the Sabres in a trade that sent Alexander Nylander to the Chicago Blackhawks. He established a career high in points last season with 19 points in 60 games. While he couldn’t produce the same offense that he did last season, he continued to kill a lot of penalties for the Sabres while providing a steady defensive presence.

Jokiharju has had issues staying healthy as he has never been able to play a full NHL season. Although he is unlikely to miss any time due to this injury, he did miss a month of hockey back in December with another lower body injury. That injury was from blocking a shot against the Pittsburgh Penguins, which isn’t that surprising for a penalty killing defenseman.

Jokiharju will be hoping for a full summer of rest and training as the Sabres look to take the next step in their rebuild. Buffalo didn’t qualify for the playoffs this season but were in the mix until the last week of the year. With much of their core coming back next season, and a potential franchise goalie now in the mix, Buffalo figures to be a team that can contend for a playoff spot in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference.

Minnesota Wild Sign Frederick Gaudreau To Extension

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The Minnesota Wild announced that they’ve taken care of some offseason business early as they have inked forward Frederick Gaudreau to a five year $10.5MM extension. Gaudreau was set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, but his extension will keep him with the Wild for the next five seasons.

Gaudreau originally signed a two year $2.4MM contract with the Wild in July 2021 after spending a single season with the Pittsburgh Penguins. While that contract carried some risk, it turned out to be an absolute bargain for Minnesota. The 29-year-old has put up 80 points in 157 games for Minnesota and added some cheap depth scoring.

Minnesota has been hamstrung by the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. The veterans buyout will account for nearly $15MM of the Wild’s salary cap space next year. Despite the cap issues, GM Bill Guerin has been able to bargain shop on multiple occasions and hit more often than he misses.  Even more impressive for Guerin is that he’s been able to build a competitive team without cap space and while also not mortgaging the future. Minnesota has all their first and second round draft picks for the near future.

While getting the Gaudreau contract done early is a tidy piece of business for the Wild, they do have some other pending free agents who will be much more difficult to extend and just $6.8MM in cap space to do it. John Klingberg, Matt Dumba, Gustav Nyquist and Oskar Sundqvist are all unrestricted, while defenseman Calen Addison and goaltender Filip Gustavsson are restricted free agents. Minnesota will likely have to make some tough decisions this summer, but with one of the best farm systems in the NHL, they should be able to remain competitive while getting younger and cheaper.

Patrice Bergeron Leaves Game For Precautionary Reasons

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The Boston Bruins have announced that Patrice Bergeron will not be returning to tonight’s game against the Montreal Canadiens. Bergeron left the game in the first period with an apparent upper body issue. The Bruins stopped short of calling the issue an injury and the team’s official Twitter account tweeted that he would not return for precautionary reasons. The move makes sense given the fact that Boston has very little to play for at this point. The Bruins have already locked up the Presidents Trophy and will have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. CBS Sports is reporting that they don’t expect his absence to affect his availability in the playoffs.

The Bruins have had to try and strike a delicate balance these last few weeks between resting players and staying sharp for the playoffs. Bergeron was recently quoted by Boston Hockey Now saying, “as we got closer to the playoffs, we thought maybe it was a good idea to play some games. Get involved in some of those because it’s a quick turnaround and you want to stay sharp.” While it makes sense to stay sharp, there will be a lot of criticism if Bergeron misses any of the playoffs with the ailment.

The Bruins have had very little to play for the last little while after a historic season. It’s rare to see a team display such utter dominance for an entire season. But the Bruins don’t have to look back far to find a 60+ win team that faltered in the playoffs. The 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning won 62 regular season games and were swept in the first round by the Columbus Blue Jackets. One might wonder if that playoff debacle for the Lightning played into Boston’s decision to dress their stars for meaningless games down the stretch.

Mason McTavish Out For The Rest Of The Season

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Derek Lee of The Sporting Tribune is reporting that Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish will miss the remainder of the season after suffering an injury in last night’s 3-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. McTavish scored a powerplay goal in the game but was limited to just 8:09 in ice time after he left with an upper body injury. He will now miss Anaheim’s season finale on Thursday against the Los Angeles Kings.

The 2021 third overall pick will finish his first full NHL season with 17 goals and 26 assists in 80 games, pretty good numbers for a 20-year-old who was tasked to play against top line opponents on a nightly basis. McTavish is among a group of young, skilled, exciting forwards that Anaheim has been able to draft and develop over the past few years. But, with all that youth there have been growing pains, Anaheim will finish this season out of the playoffs for a fifth straight season and are currently tied for the second worst record in the NHL.

While they don’t have a ton of talent at the NHL level, Anaheim boasts one of the best farm systems in the entire NHL. Should they land another top tier prospect in the 2023 entry draft, they could be turning the corner on their rebuild sooner than later.  And while they didn’t get a first round pick for John Klingberg, they do boast an awful lot of second and third round picks in the next two drafts.

The Ducks will be busy this summer, on top of what will be a busy draft day, they will need to work out new contracts for Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, Maxime Comtois, and Jamie Drysdale. The Ducks will have plenty of cap space to work with though, as they currently sit $38MM under the salary cap for the 2023-24 season.

Marc-Édouard Vlasic Won’t Require Surgery

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NBC Sports reporter Sheng Peng tweeted today that San Jose Sharks defenseman Marc-Édouard Vlasic won’t require surgery for his lower body injury. Peng had reported earlier in the week that Vlasic would be sidelined for the remainder of the year and that he wouldn’t accompany the Sharks on their final road trip. Little is known about what is ailing Vlasic, but Peng also mentioned that the injury is a shorter-term issue.

Vlasic and the Sharks have had a forgettable few seasons. San Jose is 22-42-16 on the season and haven’t qualified for the playoffs since the 2018-19 season when they went to the Western Conference Finals. That playoff push capped off a run of the Sharks making the playoffs in 19 out of 21 seasons. Since that time, they have missed the postseason four years in a row. Unheard of for a franchise that had become accustomed to playoff hockey every spring.

For his part, Vlasic hasn’t topped 25 points since the 2018-19 season and has transitioned into more of a depth role. This season Vlasic had just a single goal and 18 points while taking up $7MM in cap space. The past couple of summers have seen talk of Vlasic being a buyout candidate, and with three years left on his contract and a partial no-movement clause, it seems unlikely that San Jose would find a taker for the 36-year-old.

The Sharks are sure to have an interesting summer as they move deeper into a rebuild. They have a middle of the pack farm system, a few desirable NHL assets, but have yet to build up much in the way of draft capital. They are at the beginning of what could be a very long and painful rebuild, but could jump start things if they choose to move defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Shea Theodore Close To Returning For Vegas Golden Knights

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Jesse Granger of The Athletic tweeted today that defenseman Shea Theodore has started skating with the team for the first time since his injury in late March. Theodore has missed seven games with the undisclosed injury and is travelling with the team according to Ben Gotz of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. While Theodore skating again is certainly encouraging, he did practice in a non-contact jersey leading one to believe that he has a few more hurdles to clear before he returns to game action.

Theodore is having another strong offensive season, albeit in limited action. The usually durable defenseman has missed 27 games this season but has still managed to put up 41 points in 54 games. Theodore hasn’t dealt with injuries often in his career and hasn’t missed significant time since joining Vegas for the 2017-18 season.

While Theodore’s powerplay time and production have dropped, the 27-year-old has never been better at even strength. Theodore has 28 points at five on five in 54 games, which is one off his career high that he set last year in 78 games. Despite his injuries this season, Theodore remains a strong offensive defenseman and would likely see significant time on the Golden Knights second unit when he does make his return.

Vegas appears to be getting healthy at exactly the right time as both Jack Eichel and Mark Stone also skated this morning. Stone was also in a blue non-contact jersey, while Eichel took the optional skate in a regular practice jersey. The Golden Knights have overcome an awful lot of injuries this season including long term injuries to Robin Lehner, Nolan Patrick, and Stone. Despite the man games lost the Golden Knights still find themselves as one of the favorites to come out of a wide-open Western Conference.

Capitals Notes: Laviolette, Oshie, Sheary, Smith

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Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic is reporting that the Washington Capitals are preparing for a potentially big offseason in which a lot of personnel decisions will need to be made. The Capitals missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2013-14 season and while much of their 2018 Stanley Cup championship roster has moved on, some very important pieces remain.

El-Bashir reports that there is no update on the status of head coach Peter Laviolette. The veteran coach is a free agent at the end of this season and would still be in demand should he or the Capitals elect to part ways and start fresh next season. It is believed that Laviolette still has the support of many of the veterans in the Washington dressing room, but the recent stretch of games would give anyone pause as the Capitals have seemed indifferent at times. Laviolette is in his third season as the Capitals head coach and is the eighth winningest coach in NHL history. The 58-year-old has led three different organizations to the Stanley Cup final in his career, including a Stanley Cup victory in 2005-06 with the Carolina Hurricanes. However, in Washington he hasn’t been able to get the Capitals back over the hump and out of the first round.

In other Washington notes:

  • T.J. Oshie was shut down earlier this week with the same back injury that has caused him problems all season. Oshie missed a total of 22 games this year after dressing in just 44 games last season. El-Bashir writes in The Athletic that he is being told that Oshie shouldn’t require surgery on his ailing back and that he should be able to recover with rest and rehab. For his part the 36-year-old Oshie has seen his offensive production slide the last two seasons. He’s failed to reach 40 points two years in a row now after missing that number just once in the previous 12 seasons. Oshie can still score, evidenced by his 19 goals this season in 58 games, but Washington will be counting on him to stay healthy going forward, especially with two years left on his contract.
  • El-Bashir also writes in The Athletic that he expects the Capitals to move on from Conor Sheary and Craig Smith. Sheary is in his third season with Washington and has been a good depth scoring option with 37 points in 80 games. His scoring is down from last year, but the 30-year-old two-time cup winner should find an NHL job for next season as a depth forward with speed who can chip in on offence.
  • Craig Smith will also be looking for a new job this summer. The former Nashville Predator has seen his numbers fall off a cliff this season as he bounced between the Boston Bruins and Washington. The 2009 fourth round pick had topped 30 points in five straight seasons as a dependable third liner but hasn’t been able to duplicate that success this season. He is in the final year of a three-year contract he originally signed with Boston and will likely be forced to take a one-year deal around league minimum to secure an NHL job in 2023-24.

Montreal Canadiens Recall Two Players From AHL

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The Montreal Canadiens announced today that they have recalled forward Joël Teasdale and defenseman Frédéric Allard from the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Kent Hughes and Martin St-Louis told both players after their game last night for Laval. The Canadiens will be back in action on Wednesday night as they try to play spoiler against the New York Islanders.

Teasdale has finally found his footing in the AHL after years of setbacks due to injuries. He has provided the Rocket with secondary scoring in a season that they have needed it due to the litany of recalls they’ve had to endure thanks to Montreal’s injury situation this season. Teasdale has 23 goals and 38 points in 57 games in his third year with the Rocket. The 24-year-old doesn’t play the prettiest brand of hockey but has put up numbers in the AHL by getting to the net and winning puck battles. His hard work has been rewarded as he will dress in his first career NHL game.

Frédéric Allard was a third-round pick of the Nashville Predators back in 2016 but has yet to establish himself as an everyday NHLer. He was acquired by the Canadiens from the Los Angeles Kings back in early March and has played one game for Montreal thus far. In 40 AHL games this season, the 25-year-old Allard has just two goals and five assists. His offensive numbers in the AHL this season have really fallen off from his previous five years in the league. Allard had established himself as a solid two-way defenseman capable of chipping in 20+ points but has failed to come close to replicating that offensive success this year.

The call-ups are an interesting move by the Canadiens, they could have called up Rafael Harvey-Pinard who has already scored 20 points in 34 games this season in the NHL, but they elected to call up players who play supporting roles in Laval. The Rocket also play tomorrow night against the Toronto Marlies in AHL action and are pushing towards the playoffs. Removing Harvey-Pinard from the lineup would have been a significant blow to the Rocket’s chances of knocking off the best team in the AHL’s North Division.

Thomas Greiss Out For The Rest Of The Season

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The St. Louis Blues have announced that goaltender Thomas Greiss will be out for the remainder of the season with a lower body injury. Greiss played in 21 games for the Blues and will finish the season with a 7-10-0 record to go with a .895 save percentage and a 3.64 GAA. He underwent a procedure this past Monday and it was being speculated that it would sideline him until the end of the year.

Greiss was signed in the offseason as a backup to Jordan Binnington and struggled in his first season with the Blues. It was his 14th season in the NHL and his second season in a row where he put up a save percentage under .900.

Greiss had a tremendous five year run with the New York Islanders from 2015-2020 which saw him win 101 games and put-up a save percentage of .915. However, by the time Greiss signed in St. Louis late last summer there was talk that he nearly retired due to a lack of interest in his services.

Now given his struggles the past two seasons it seems possible that the 37-year-old could hang up his skates after this season. It’ll be interesting to see what Greiss does, there remains a possibility that he could still find work as a backup, given how thin the free agent goaltending market will be this summer.

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