Author: Ethan Hetu

Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’re taking a look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Reid Schaefer, LW, Nashville Predators (Milwaukee Admirals, AHL)
25 GP 1G 3A 4pts

For many players, the transition from playing against one’s peers at a junior hockey level to playing against seasoned pros at the professional level presents a steep learning curve. It’s an exceptional challenge, and numerous top prospects have had slow starts in pro leagues only to eventually figure things out.

There are also players who immediately find their groove at the pro level, such as 2021 first-round pick Brennan Othmann for example, who has scored 22 points in 26 games with the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack.

One player who fits into the former category is Schaefer, the 32nd pick of the 2022 NHL draft. Originally selected by the Edmonton Oilers, Schaefer was dealt to Nashville as part of the Mattias Ekholm trade.

He was a member of an absolutely stacked Seattle Thunderbirds team in the WHL over the last two seasons, and enjoyed an extremely favorable situation as a result. He got to play top-six minutes next to some exceptionally talented linemates, and by scoring 36 goals and 80 points in 74 combined regular-season and playoff games he looked like a burgeoning power forward prospect.

That rapid rise from last season now looks like a distant memory. Schaefer has been unable to penetrate the top-six in Milwaukee, and has typically played on the third line of an Admirals team that routinely dresses seven defensemen.

And with top Predators prospects such as Joakim Kemell, Zachary L’Heureux, and Egor Afanasyev excelling on the first two lines (with veteran Denis Gurianov occupying the last top-six winger slot) there does not appear to be much immediate room for Schaefer to slot into a more favorable on-ice situation.

Typically stapled on a line with center Cal O’Reilly, a respected veteran but hardly the dominant AHL scorer he once was, Schaefer simply does not receive the offensive opportunities many other top forward prospects are getting in the AHL.

The result has been poor production, and while he has had his moments it looks like he’s still a ways away from challenging for an NHL job.

Should Schaefer’s offensive struggles continue, his overall offensive upside for the NHL could be placed into question. While at one point he was projected as a top-six NHL power forward, there has long been division in how his NHL projection has been interpreted.

TSN’s Craig Button ranked Schaefer 20th overall in his 2022 draft rankings, but the team at EliteProspects ranked Schafer all the way down at 102. It’s somewhat rare for highly-drafted prospects to have such a massive disparity in terms of third-party ranking, and combining that division with Schaefer’s current predicament raises questions as to his NHL future.

Is Schaefer going to end up an impactful top-six power forward, the kind of player NHL front offices dream of acquiring? Or is he more likely to end up a role player who relies more on physicality than scoring touch in order to carve out an NHL career?

Based on his time in Milwaukee thus far, it’s likely that we’ll need to wait until a few prospects graduate to the NHL before we get a clear answer to that question.

Daniil But, LW, Arizona Coyotes (Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, KHL)
32 GP 8G 7A 15pts

Like Schaefer, But is also a six-foot-three recent first-round pick who was drafted by a team hoping he’ll develop into a goal-scoring NHL power forward.

But unlike Schaefer, But has not struggled in his rookie professional campaign. Instead, the 2023 12th overall pick has excelled for the KHL’s Lokomotiv Yaroslalvl, despite playing in a situation where he receives as little as a minute of ice time in a game.

Still just 18 years old, But is on pace to score 15 goals and 28 points in his first full KHL campaign. While those aren’t Matvei Michkov numbers, that’s exceptional production for a teenage player in a league notoriously difficult for young players to succeed in.

His secondary scoring has helped Yaroslavl climb close to the top of the KHL’s standings, and while the threat of a reassignment to the junior-level MHL hangs over But (he has already been sent there on two occasions this season) he has clearly shown that he can hold his own at the KHL level.

As mentioned, Yaroslavl is a strong team and a potential Gagarin Cup contender. As a result, it’s unlikely that But will receive even close to the level of ice time other 2023 first-rounders will receive this season.

It would be easy to fade into the background in that situation, potentially even relegating himself to the MHL where he’d receive a more significant role. But despite that extremely limited role, But has found ways to excel. That bodes well for his NHL projection, and although he’s still under KHL contract through next season Coyotes fans should be encouraged by how this year is shaping up to be an emphatic step forward in But’s development.

Emil Andrae, LHD, Philadelphia Flyers (Lehigh Valley Phantoms, AHL)
19 GP 3G 11A 14pts

In late October, the Flyers had a decision to make. 2020 second-round pick Emil Andrae had put together an extremely impressive training camp, and his success in the preseason earned him a spot in the Flyers’ lineup for their second game of the season.

He had his NHL debut and got into four more games, but with a sheltered third-pairing role it had become clear that he may not have been as NHL-ready as he had led the team to believe with his strong training camp. The Flyers had to decide whether to let Andrae figure out how to survive in the NHL on limited third-pairing minutes, or if he’d be better off acclimating himself with the North American game playing big minutes in the AHL.

The Flyers took the latter route, electing to send Andrae to Lehigh Valley. Head coach John Tortorella explained the decision at the time, saying: “Instead of playing him eight, 10, 11 minutes, [in the NHL] he’ll play 20-plus down there. So important as far as developing players. Especially at that position, defense”

The early returns on the Flyers’ choice are decidedly positive. Andrae, 21, has excelled at the AHL level scoring 14 points in 19 games. He plays a big role at even strength and on the power play, and he’s getting a far larger dose of puck touches than he would have received in the AHL.

With the Flyers surprising early this season and in the thick of a playoff chase nobody saw coming, there doesn’t appear to be room on the team for Andrae to learn on the job as an NHL player. That’s just fine, though, as Andrae’s work as a top-pairing blueliner in Lehigh Valley has the Phantoms right in the thick of the AHL playoff race.

Andrae is an interesting prospect, as he stands just five-foot-nine but still plays with an imposing physical edge. He racked up 67 penalty minutes with HV71 last season in the SHL and is capable of unleashing some big hits. He also pairs that willingness to engage in the physical side of the game with some tantalizing offensive tools, tools that have thus far translated into points with the Phantoms.

The Flyers know what Andrae can do in front of the net, in the corners, and with the puck on his stick. What they want him to improve in the AHL is his ability to read and react to the speed of the game at a higher level, while also growing his familiarity with the smaller North American ice surface.

It remains to be seen how Andrae will fare in his next NHL shot, to be sure, but his AHL performance has been nothing except encouraging.

Pierrick Dubé, RW, Washington Capitals (Hershey Bears, AHL)
30 GP 16G 5A 21pts

There are many routes a player can take to the NHL, but some routes are more likely to end in success than others. It’s certainly true that what one does after they are drafted is a far stronger determinant of one’s NHL future than where in the draft they were selected, but it’s also true that top prospects are far more likely to receive a clear path to the NHL as well as a more generous leash to make mistakes as they travel that path.

As a result, some players need to scratch and claw their way to the NHL, and a perfect example of a player who appears to be just on the cusp of making it is French international Pierrick Dubé. The 22-year-old scored well in his later years in the QMJHL, but standing five-foot-nine it’s no huge surprise he went undrafted.

Dubé began his pro career in 2021-22 with the ECHL’s Trois-Rivières Lions, and even spent most of the start of 2022-23 in the ECHL as well. But Dubé scored nine goals and 14 points in just nine games with the Lions, quickly showing himself to be worthy of consideration in the AHL.

Dubé started off slow with the AHL’s Laval Rocket, but eventually became one of their more important players and finished with 16 goals and 32 points in 44 games.

As he was playing on a one-year, two-way AHL/ECHL deal, the Montreal Canadiens actually did not have the exclusive right to sign one of the breakout players from their AHL affiliate. This led to Dubé getting snatched up in free agency by the Washington Capitals, who signed him to a two-year, $870k AAV deal containing a $82.5K AHL salary.

That relatively hefty bet on a player with limited pro experience has paid off for the Capitals, as Dubé is currently one of the Bears’ most deadly offensive threats. He’s scored more goals than just about any other player in the AHL so far this season and is on pace to finish with 38 goals in 72 games.

Dubé’s size will always be a factor for his NHL future regardless of how well he scores in the AHL, and that’s especially true in Washington as the team has seen undersized AHL star Matthew Phillips struggle at the NHL level.

But if Dubé can keep scoring at his current rate, the 22-year-old could surely make a push for an NHL call-up which would make him quite the clever, diamond-in-the-rough signing for the Capitals.

Noah Warren, RHD, Anaheim Ducks (Victoriaville Tigres, QMJHL)
20 GP 2G 3A 5pts

When the Anaheim Ducks drafted Montreal native Noah Warren 42nd overall at the 2022 draft, it was somewhat clear what the team was looking to accomplish. Warren already possessed massively impressive athletic tools: he is six-foot-four, 216 pounds, and can skate a lot better than most at his size.

Those tools informed the idea that Warren held quite a bit of upside as a defensive defender, but the hope was that with a few years left of junior hockey still to play, the July birthdate could take advantage of a long developmental runway and put together a more advanced offensive game.

So far, Warren does not appear to have developed significantly in the realm of offense. He scored five goals and 24 points in his draft campaign for the Gatineau Olympiques, and this season with the Victoriaville Tigres Warren is on pace to score six goals and 15 points in 57 games.

It’s not common for a defenseman to see his offensive production decline as he ages in junior hockey, only for that progression to reverse at the professional level. As a result, the Ducks may need to re-consider their hopes for what Warren will become at the pro level. While they may have once hoped that his offensive game would come along and he’d end up an elite, complete defenseman, that does not appear to be a realistic possibility anymore.

Instead, the Ducks may have to re-focus their hopes for Warren on the defensive side of the game, a place where his tools still indicate he can be a difference-maker.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images