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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Nashville.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $84,904,199 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Luke Evangelista (one year, $797.5K)

Evangelista’s first full NHL campaign was a good one as he notched 39 points after putting up 15 points in 24 games in 2022-23.  That isn’t a statistical profile that suggests a long-term agreement will be forthcoming but if he can have a similar offensive showing this season, Evangelista could approach the $3MM mark on a bridge agreement.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Dante Fabbro ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Gustav Nyquist ($3.15MM, UFA)

Nyquist came to Nashville in the middle of a down season which hurt his market last summer.  However, his first full season with the Preds was his best as he set new career bests in assists (52) and points (75).  A repeat showing could give him a shot at a fair-sized raise, albeit on a short-term deal as he’ll be 36 when the 2025-26 season kicks off.

Fabbro has shown flashes of being a key secondary piece on Nashville’s back end in the past but has settled into more of a depth role in recent years.  That said, he’s still just 26 and as a right-shot player, he should still command a fair bit of interest next summer in free agency.  Even if he stays in the role he’s had lately, he should push past the $3MM mark on his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Mark Jankowski ($800K, UFA)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($900K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM, UFA)
D Spencer Stastney ($825K, RFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($1.5MM, UFA)

Sissons’ seven-year contract drew some ire at the time for someone whose role was somewhat limited at the time but it has held up relatively well in most of those seasons.  He has provided enough secondary scoring to give them some value on that front while being a key defensive player.  He should land another multi-year deal above $3MM if that holds up the next two years.  Smith has emerged as a viable fourth-line physical winger over the last two seasons.  Those players tend to do well on the open market still so if he can push past the double-digit goal mark, he could double his price tag in 2026.  McCarron and Jankowski have been depth players throughout their careers and are likely to see their future contracts check in relatively close to the league minimum.

Schenn had a resurgent season in 2022-23, moving him from someone making around the minimum salary to someone making nearly four times that much.  He had a limited role with the Preds last season; it’s fair to suggest they were expecting him to cover more than 15 minutes a night.  Continuing with that level of ice time could land him back near the minimum in 2026.

Lauzon was counted on to play a bigger role last season, ranking fourth among Nashville blueliners in ATOI while leading the NHL in hits by 60 over the next closest player.  Two more years like that would give him a strong market heading to free agency where doubling his current price tag could be doable.  Stastney split last season between Nashville and AHL Milwaukee and might be in a similar role this season.  He’ll need to crack the lineup full-time before having a shot at passing the $1MM mark.

Wedgewood had a good run as the backup in Dallas which allowed him to get a 50% raise on this deal with Nashville.  Barring injury, he won’t be counted on to play as many games as a top-level backup and if that winds up being the case, that will prevent him from getting closer to the top backup money ($3MM or more) that many netminders have received in recent years.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Alexandre Carrier ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Thomas Novak ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($4.5MM, UFA)

The decision to sign O’Reilly as their top center last summer was a bit of a curious one considering that he hadn’t been in that role for several years and the fact he was coming off his lowest point-per-game rate since he was a teenager.  However, he showed that he still had a high level of offense in his game while continuing to be an above-average player at the faceoff dot and a strong defender.  Even if there’s a bit of a dip in his production given some of the extra firepower brought in this summer, this is still a good price tag if O’Reilly ultimately settles in as more of a second liner.  There may be some concern for the final year of the deal when he’s 36 but right now, this has worked out quite well for the Preds.

Novak was a feel-good story in 2022-23, putting up 43 points in 51 games after being recalled from the minors.  He showed last year that the performance wasn’t just a mirage, surpassing the 40-point mark again, earning himself this new deal in the process.  As long as Novak continues to stay around the 40-point range, Nashville will get at least a reasonable return on this contract.

Carrier bounced back well after a rough 2022-23 season, spending a lot of time in Nashville’s top four which gave him some leverage heading to the open market.  He opted not to test it, instead accepting a 50% increase in his cap hit, not a bad outcome for someone who only became a regular NHL player in 2021-22.

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Snapshots: Laine, Lankinen, CBA Talks

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While Patrik Laine was eventually traded to Montreal, it appears as if that wasn’t the originally planned destination for the winger.  La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported earlier this week that the Wild had been in discussions to acquire the 26-year-old with GM Bill Guerin acknowledging to him that he thought he had a chance to get Laine.  However, Guerin indicated that Laine didn’t want to go to Minnesota which implies that the Wild were one of the teams on his partial no-trade list.  Considering his $8.7MM cap hit and Minnesota’s particularly tight cap situation, it would have been interesting to see how Guerin was going to make it work in terms of fitting in Laine’s contract on their books.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • While the Canucks have been linked to veteran goaltender Kevin Lankinen on the tryout front as they look to get some insurance for training camp, Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston relays that the veteran’s intention is to secure a full contract offer and not go the PTO route. The 29-year-old has been a backup for the last four seasons, posting a respectable 3.05 GAA with a .905 SV% over stints with Chicago and Nashville but with so few teams needing goalie depth at the moment, a guaranteed deal at this point will be hard to come by for Lankinen.
  • Marty Walsh, executive director of the NHLPA, told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski that there have not yet been any major discussions pertaining to the next CBA, noting it’s still a bit early to get into those talks. The current agreement is set to expire following the 2025-26 season.  This will be Walsh’s first CBA that he works on after taking over for Don Fehr back in 2023.  While it was recently noted that there is an uptick in signing bonus money for 2026-27 as insurance against a possible work stoppage, Walsh indicated that it shouldn’t be construed as a sign of possible concern.

PHR Mailbag: Blue Jackets, Deferred Contracts, Perfetti, Raymond, Rangers, Ducks, September Moves

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion on deferred contracts, Anaheim’s interest in moving out a pair of long-time veterans, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

User 1773920983: With Johnny Gaudreau passing away, what will happen to CBJ’s salary cap? They will fall below if it is removed.

vh33: I don’t want to be disrespectful, but I was wondering: due to the death of Johnny Gaudreau, what happens with the cap hit for the Blue Jackets and the salary? Will the cap hit be reduced? Or in the books for the remainder of his contract? And will the heirs receive his remaining salary? What are the rules for these tragic occasions?

Gaudreau’s contract comes off the books in full for Columbus which does indeed put them under the Lower Limit of $65MM for the upcoming season.  Per PuckPedia, they’re around $62.3MM with a 22-player roster at the moment so they do have a bit of work to do on that front.

It’s possible that they ask for some sort of waiver from the league to start the season below that amount given the circumstances but I think the NHLPA would need to sign off as well.  Their preference would obviously be that Columbus goes and signs a couple of free agents to make up the difference which is an option.  I expect the Blue Jackets will go the trade route and take on a player or two from teams needing or wanting to clear salary, picking up some draft picks in consideration for doing so.  Given that they’re a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, I could see $67MM being a soft target, giving them a path to stay above the Lower Limit even if they move a player or two during the year.

As for what is and isn’t paid out, let’s start with the contract itself.  To the best of my understanding, the family won’t receive any of the remaining payments.  Assuming the $2MM signing bonus in his contract was already paid, that’s the last direct payment in the deal.

However, the family will receive some money.  Article 23 of the CBA provides some information on the insurance of contracts which is relevant here.  From my interpretation, there should be a $1MM life insurance policy as well as an accidental death policy valued at the base salary for that season which in this case is $7.75MM (it excludes the signing bonus).  There’s also a six-month extension of benefits for the family (added in the 2020 CBA extension) with an option to elect (purchase) continuation of coverage beyond that.

aka.nda: Deferred payments in contracts… how many can be in place, and for how much and what duration? How do they count against the cap if they’re paid out the day the season ends vs. some other time?

There are no restrictions on deferred payments in terms of how many can be in place, for how much, or for how long.

As for the second question, the end of the season still falls within the League Year so the quickest way to answer it is to go right to the CBA – Sec. 50.2(ii)(A):

Player Salary denominated as “Deferred” but payable within the term of the SPC shall be counted in the League Year in which the Player Salary is paid and shall not be treated as Deferred Salary.

That covers the day after the season ends but let’s look at another time.  More specifically, a deferral that is payable outside the term of the contract and payable outside the League Year (let’s say July 1st).  At that point, the value of the deferral is discounted to the present value of that compensation in the year it was earned.  Logically, the further out the payment of the deferred money, the lower the present value and therefore the lower the cap hit.  That’s my attempt at a simple explanation for a concept that isn’t all that simple.  PuckPedia has a nice breakdown with some more details of contract deferrals if you’re interested in reading up on it further.

I’m going to quickly comment on the idea of deferred salary in general having seen a lot of general speculation that the two deals Carolina did could lead to a spike in these types of agreements.  I don’t think that will be the case.  With escrow stabilizing, there’s going to be more effort into front-loading contracts as much as possible, especially for established top players.  They then get more money sooner which is the key objective.

Deferred contracts are more or less the opposite as players have to wait longer to get paid.  Presumably, they’re getting more in the end to make up for the deferral but they have to wait.  That’s how Carolina got around the perceived internal ceiling of Seth Jarvis’ deal being the $7.75MM that Andrei Svechnikov has.  The AAV based on total earnings is higher at $7.9MM but the cap hit is only $7.42MM based on the three deferred payments to the day after the contract officially expires.  It’s a creative solution but while we might see a few more of these deals (to be fair, Carolina’s two weren’t the first of its kind; they’ve happened before albeit rarely), this isn’t going to be the start of a new trend.

Cla23: What does a Cole Perfetti and Lucas Raymond contract look like?

For Perfetti, I think the two sides are going to hone in on a bridge deal.  He only has 75 career points under his belt so I have a hard time believing that the two sides can find a number that they’ll be happy with on a long-term agreement.  Perfetti wouldn’t lock in close to a max term for less than $6MM as he undoubtedly feels he has another level to get to offensively while given his performance so far, I doubt the Jets would go that high.  I expect a two-year term will be the target which should check in around $3MM per season, perhaps backloaded slightly to secure a higher qualifying offer.  That also fits nicely within Winnipeg’s current cap situation, giving them a chance to bank some in-season cap space.

As for Raymond, it looks like a long-term agreement is the goal and GM Steve Yzerman made sure to leave enough cap space to afford one.  His platform season was strong (31 goals, 41 assists) and there’s probably a belief that he can beat those numbers down the road.  I could see Raymond’s camp looking to best Cole Caufield’s contract (eight years, $7.85MM AAV) as he has better numbers now than the Montreal winger did at the time while Detroit is probably hoping to get that into the high-six range which lines up more with the cap percentage on Dylan Larkin’s post-entry-level deal.  I’ll go with seven years at $7.8MM or eight years at $8MM as the end result.

sha44ron! Due to the cap limits, the Rangers were unable to improve their bottom six so do you think that will hurt them this year?

I’ll start with this general thought.  If the bottom six is the biggest issue that a team has heading into the regular season, that’s a pretty good spot to be in.  And that’s where the Rangers are.

I’m not sure I agree that they haven’t been able to improve their bottom six.  As long as Filip Chytil stays healthy (granted, that’s far from a given), that’s a big improvement right there as he’s not passing Mika Zibanejad or Vincent Trocheck on the center depth chart.  If Reilly Smith’s addition pushes Kaapo Kakko onto the third line as well, now you have a third line that should be a capable secondary scoring trio.

I also think there’s room for internal improvement in the bottom six.  Will Cuylle should take a step forward while if they get a chance, Brennan Othmann and Adam Edstrom could contribute.

With New York’s overall talent, they’re in good shape for the season so they can be patient with their bottom six.  If the things I mentioned above happen and it’s a better group than expected, great.  If not, they can try to address it at the trade deadline.  If it’s still a problem going into the playoffs, then I’d be a bit more concerned but for now, I don’t think it will hurt them too much.

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Pacific Notes: Flames, DeAngelo, Brisebois

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With the Flames heading into what looks to be a longer-term rebuild, there has been speculation that some of their remaining veterans might want a change of scenery.  However, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman relayed in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link), GM Craig Conroy appears to be taking more of a wait-and-see approach with his current roster:

His plan is to start the year, see how it goes, and then decide what he’s going to do with some of these players. He’s asked his players to keep an open mind, see how this year goes, and then he’ll start looking at what he might need to do or what they want to do.

While some rebuilding teams have been okay with tearing it down and enduring some rough losing seasons, Conroy has talked about staying competitive during this stretch.  Accordingly, it makes sense that he’d like to hold onto his remaining veteran core for the time being.  Projected to operate just $3MM above the cap floor per PuckPedia, if the time comes to move a high-priced veteran, Conroy will have to make sure any move wouldn’t put them below that lower limit.

More from the Pacific:

  • Unrestricted free agent Tony DeAngelo expressed an interest in attending Oilers camp on a PTO deal but it appears the team has said no, suggests Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal. The 28-year-old is a right-shot defender, the side the team appears to be prioritizing but while he has a track record of some offensive success (with two 50-plus-point seasons), last season was a struggle for DeAngelo who managed just 11 points in 31 games while being a frequent healthy scratch.  That certainly hasn’t helped his market so far in free agency.
  • Canucks defenseman Guillaume Brisebois has fully recovered after dealing with a recurrence of concussion symptoms that cost him most of last season, relays Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston. The 27-year-old only played in eight late-season games in the AHL in 2023-24 due to the symptoms.  Brisebois has 27 career NHL appearances under his belt, all coming with Vancouver as he is the longest-contracted player in the organization having been signed to them since late in 2015.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Minnesota.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $87,243,590 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Brock Faber (one year left on ELC at $925K, has signed extension)
F Marat Khusnutdinov (one year, $925K)
F Liam Ohgren (three years, $886.6K)
F Marco Rossi (one year, $863.3K)

Potential Bonuses
Faber: $250K
Khusnutdinov: $850K
Ohgren: $475K
Rossi: $850K
Total: $2.425MM

Khusnutdinov spent last season in the KHL but with his team there missing the playoffs, he was able to get into 16 games down the stretch with the Wild.  He didn’t do a lot with somewhat limited minutes but that’s not entirely surprising for someone making their debut late in the season.  A top-six role seems unlikely which makes a bridge deal the most probable outcome, one that’s a bit too early to handicap while hitting his bonuses seems unlikely.  Ohgren, meanwhile, also got his feet wet with Minnesota late in the year and held his own.  In a perfect world, he finds his way onto the roster, giving the Wild some secondary scoring depth.  However, with their cap situation, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him start at AHL Iowa to allow them to bank some early-season cap space but he should be up at some point.  It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll hit his bonuses unless he’s a full-timer and makes an impact on the scoresheet.

Rossi made the jump to the NHL full-time last season and turned in a solid rookie campaign with 21 goals and 19 assists although that didn’t stop him from being in trade speculation earlier this offseason.  He reached two of his ‘A’ bonuses last season (ATOI and goals) and assuming he has a similar role this year, he has a good chance at reaching those again, counting at $212.5K apiece.  Considering the perception of his availability, it stands to reason that Minnesota’s preference is probably going to be a bridge deal.  If Rossi has another season like 2023-24, that contract should surpass $3MM per year on a two-year pact while a long-term agreement would likely push past $5MM per season.

Faber is worth a quick mention here due to the bonuses as they weren’t in the first or second year of his deal.  If he has anywhere near a repeat performance from a year ago, it’s going to be safe to pencil those into Minnesota’s cap planning.

Jesper Wallstedt (one year, $925K plus $425K in bonuses) isn’t mentioned above as while he’s expected to see some action between the pipes, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to carry him on the roster on a full-time basis.  That means the bonuses won’t be hit and with what’s likely to be a limited NHL workload, his next deal likely maxes out at what San Jose gave Yaroslav Askarov (two years, $2MM per season); it wouldn’t be shocking if it came in well below that either.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Declan Chisholm ($1MM, UFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($2MM, UFA)
F Reese Johnson ($775K, RFA)
F Jakub Lauko ($787.5K, RFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)

Johansson didn’t light it up like he did after being acquired at the trade deadline the year before although 30 points for this price point isn’t bad value.  However, he’s someone who hasn’t had a lot of success on the open market in recent deals before this one so it wouldn’t be surprising to see his next contract land around this one.  Lauko was acquired from Boston at the draft and was brought in to add some grit on the fourth line.  With a rather limited overall track record (just 83 career NHL games), his next deal shouldn’t cost much more than $1MM barring an offensive outburst in 2024-25.  Johnson was signed to a two-way deal after being non-tendered by Chicago to avoid arbitration.  He’ll likely see action on the fourth line if he makes the team but with over 140 NHL games, he’s a potential non-tender candidate again as well.

Merrill saw his stock drop a bit last season, averaging less than 13 minutes a night when he was in the lineup.  A serviceable depth defender, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Wild tried to run him through waivers to open up a bit of flexibility; all but $50K of the contract would come off the books when he’s in the minors.  Looking ahead, he’ll have a hard time pushing past the $1MM mark unless he can re-establish himself closer to the 15-plus minute mark.  Chisholm, meanwhile, fared well after being claimed midseason from Winnipeg but a limited track record hurt his market value this summer.  If he can stay as a full-time option on the third pairing, doubling his price tag could be doable.

Many expected Fleury to retire but he opted to come back for one final season.  He’s coming off a down year but if he can bounce back a bit, Minnesota should get decent value with this price tag being below the top backup options.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Zach Bogosian ($1.25MM, UFA)
G Filip Gustavsson ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.125MM, UFA)

Kaprizov has emerged as one of the top wingers in the NHL and he will be signing this deal at the age of 29, meaning he will still have some prime years left when the time comes to sign his next contract.  As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him surpass Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM AAV; while his point totals haven’t been as high, the increase in the salary cap between the two contracts should make the difference.  Zuccarello signed this extension early and has put up at least 63 points the last three seasons.  If that holds up, the Wild will do quite well here.  Even if the output starts to drop, it should hold up relatively well.  He’ll be entering his age-39 year on his next contract which means it’s far from a guarantee that there will be a next contract.

Bogosian did well in a limited role after being acquired from Tampa Bay.  As long as he stays around that fifth slot in terms of usage, they’ll do relatively well with this contract.

Gustavsson wasn’t expected to necessarily repeat his breakout numbers from 2022-23 but he didn’t exactly come close to them either.  He dropped 32 points on his save percentage while his goals-against average went up by nearly a full goal per game.  The end result was a stat line that was below average, even for a second-stringer.  It’s safe to say they’ll be counting on some sort of rebound.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Ryan Hartman ($4MM, UFA)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.875MM, UFA)

Hartman didn’t get back to his output from 2021-22 but he still reached the 20-goal mark.  As long as he can stay there and play down the middle, this contract should age well.

Spurgeon, meanwhile, is coming off an injury-plagued year.  When healthy, he’s a top-pairing player but whether he can still be one for the final three seasons of this contract remains to be seen as he’ll turn 35 in late November.  It’s possible as a result that this one could become an issue for Minnesota down the road.

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Snapshots: Kane, Ducks, Seider, Malone

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For the past several months, there has been plenty of speculation about the availability of Oilers winger Evander Kane (or lack thereof).  Even following a report last month that he would be undergoing surgery, there is still some uncertainty about how long he might be out for.  It appears that we should soon have some clarity on that front as GM Stan Bowman indicated on a recent Oilers Now segment (audio link) that they’re hoping to have an update on Kane in the next seven to ten days.  Kane played through a sports hernia injury for much of last season and the playoffs but still managed to put up 24 goals and 20 assists in 77 regular season appearances.  Edmonton’s roster movement this summer has positioned themselves to operate without necessarily needing LTIR so even if Kane will be out long-term, they may not choose to put him there when the season starts.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Ducks announced (Twitter link) that third-overall pick Beckett Sennecke suffered a fractured foot during offseason training that will keep him out for six to eight weeks. Meanwhile, the team also revealed that goaltender Tomas Suchanek had successful surgery to repair a ruptured ACL and will miss six to eight months.  Sennecke was a late-riser heading into the draft with his selection coming as a surprise to many.  The injury will derail any outside chance he had at making the team but he should be good to go by the time the World Juniors come around.  Suchanek, meanwhile, posted a 2.92 GAA and a .910 SV% in 29 games with AHL San Diego last season and was in position to likely be Anaheim’s third-string option this year.  This injury likely led to today’s earlier signing of Oscar Dansk to a one-year deal.
  • Earlier today, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta relayed that the Red Wings were making progress on a long-term contract for RFA winger Lucas Raymond. Later in the day, he added (Twitter link) that Detroit and RFA Moritz Seider are also working away at a long-term pact.  The 23-year-old has been a key cog on the back end for the last three seasons, recording at least 42 points while logging over 22 minutes a night in each of them.  Detroit has over $17MM in cap room, per PuckPedia, which should be enough to get both key youngsters signed to long-term agreements.
  • Back in April, it was reported that veteran winger Brad Malone would be calling it a career. It was made official today with Malone announcing it on his Twitter page.  Malone played in 217 career NHL games between Colorado, Carolina, and Edmonton, while also seeing time in a dozen AHL campaigns, spanning 552 contests.  His days in hockey aren’t over, however, as OHL Oshawa announced that they’ve hired Malone as their Player Development Coach.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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With training camps on the horizon, we’re likely to see an uptick in transaction activity over the next couple of weeks as teams look to finalize their rosters.  With that in mind, it’s a good time to open up the mailbag.

Our last mailbag was done in two segments.  The first looked at what options the Stars could have to add to their roster and how Thomas Harley affects it, Jeremy Swayman’s contract situation, the status of the Blues’ defense, and more.  Meanwhile, the second examined some potential coaching and GM candidates, the quiet summer in Anaheim, and assessing Rob Blake’s offseason, among other topics.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Canucks Hoping To Avoid Using LTIR

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One of the challenges that Vancouver had last season was the inability to bank day-to-day cap space with the team needing to use LTIR.  While defenseman Tucker Poolman is eligible to go back on there in 2024-25, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford recently told reporters including Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston that their goal is to open up the season without needing to use LTIR.

Poolman has spent the majority of his three-year tenure with the Canucks on LTIR, playing only 33 games over that span; all but three of those came back in 2021-22.  He has been dealing with migraines throughout his time with Vancouver and isn’t expected to play at all this season.  In theory, that could allow the team to spend past the cap by up to his $2.5MM cap charge.

However, if they did so, their remaining cap space would be limited to the portion of LTIR space that they’re not spending at the time with no benefit of the value of that space going up as the season goes along.  In other words, a team with $1MM in LTIR at the start of the season could only add a player making $1MM then or at the trade deadline.  That was a limiting factor in their efforts to upgrade at the deadline last season.

While it’s understandable that they’d want to stay below the $88MM mark in spending and not need LTIR, accomplishing that goal could be a bit tricky.  Per PuckPedia, the team projects to have less than $191K to start the season, an amount that wouldn’t be worth anything of consequence at the trade deadline in March.  They’d have to go into LTIR as soon as an injury recall was needed.

Accordingly, if their goal is to bank enough flexibility to have more options later on, the Canucks will need to trim from their roster.  They could opt to carry a roster with fewer than the maximum of 23 players or attempt to make a cost-cutting trade.  One option on that front would be to try to find a taker for Poolman’s contract although with the contract believed to be uninsured and not a lot of teams looking to take on money, the incentive to get a team to take it on would be pricey.

Regardless of what route they go, if the Canucks want to stay out of LTIR, they probably have some work to do in the coming weeks to achieve that objective for any prolonged amount of time.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Dallas.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $81,756,241 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mavrik Bourque (one year, $894K)
F Wyatt Johnston (one year, $894K)
F Logan Stankoven (two years, $814K)

Potential Bonuses
Johnston: $318.75K
Stankoven: $82.5K
Total: $401.25K

It’s fair to say that Johnston has provided significant value on his contract so far.  After putting up 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season, those numbers jumped to 32 and 65 respectively last year while also tying for the team lead in playoff scoring.  This is the type of player that the Stars will want to lock up on a long-term agreement.  However, that deal is going to be quite pricey.  At this point, if Johnston has even a similar performance this coming season let alone a more productive effort, he could be looking for $8MM or more on that second contract.  If their cap situation ultimately dictates a short-term second deal, it’s likely to come in around the $6MM range.

Stankoven was one of the top scorers in the minors last season before being recalled and was productive in a middle-six role.  Assuming he locks down a full-time spot this year, he could make a case for a longer-term second contract, one that is a bit too early to project at this point.  Bourque eventually took over as the top scorer at the AHL level with Stankoven’s departure and only got into one regular season game with Dallas.  That should change this season but unless he has a big year offensively, he’s someone who will likely wind up with a bridge deal for his second contract.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($775K, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Matt Duchene ($3MM, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Nils Lundkvist ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Brendan Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($1.2MM, UFA)

When Benn signed this contract, he was among the top-scoring wingers in the NHL.  While he hasn’t been able to get to that level of production (high-80s in points) since then, he has rebounded nicely over the last couple of seasons, notching 78 and 60 points respectively.  While that’s not a great return on this price tag, he’s still producing like a core player.  Given his age when his next contract will begin (36), the AAV might be closer to the $5MM mark.  If he signs a one-year deal next time out, he’ll be eligible for performance incentives, similar to what Dallas had been doing with Joe Pavelski before his retirement.

Duchene was a late entrant to the free agent market last summer so the one-year, $3MM deal he signed then made sense for both sides, seemingly positioning himself for a raise and a multi-year guarantee this past summer.  Instead, he opted to stick around on the same contract, leaving some money and security on the table in the process.  It’s possible he agrees to do so again next summer but if he doesn’t, he could still land a three-year (or so) agreement closer to $4.5MM per season.  Dadonov wasn’t as productive as he was late in the 2022-23 season after being acquired but with 23 points in 51 games, he still provided a decent return on this deal.  He has indicated that he doesn’t want any early extension talks and has left the door open to finishing up his career in the KHL.

Steel had a decent season in the bottom six but his arbitration eligibility was a concern, resulting in him being non-tendered.  While he did have some interest elsewhere, he ultimately elected to remain with the Stars.  With that outside interest, Steel should be able to land this deal or a bit more next summer if he has a similar showing this season.  Blackwell struggled with injuries the last two seasons which certainly didn’t help his cause going into free agency.  Nonetheless, as a capable penalty killer who can play center in a pinch, he could rebuild his value with a good showing in 2024-25 and push past the $1MM mark on his next contract.

Lindell is one of the more intriguing defensemen league-wide who is heading into the final year of his contract.  When he signed this contract back in 2019, he was coming off a bridge deal and what looked like a breakout 32-point campaign.  If he could find another gear offensively, Lindell would become quite a bargain at this price point.  Instead, he hasn’t gotten back to that total since with his best output coming this past season at 26.  While Lindell is still a very capable defensive defender, the limited production will limit his market to an extent as will the fact he’ll be 31 when his next contract starts.  With the cap starting to go up, a small raise could be doable but if he wants a long-term agreement (seven or eight years), it wouldn’t be surprising if the AAV came in slightly below this, barring an offensive breakout in the coming months.

Lundkvist hasn’t been able to provide the secondary offensive contributions Dallas was hoping for when they moved a pair of draft picks (including a first-rounder) for him in 2022.  Then, when the playoffs came around, his playing time was just 4:28 per night in a dozen games when he wasn’t a healthy scratch.  Thus, it wasn’t entirely shocking that he was non-tendered to avoid arbitration although the fact he was brought back might have.  He’ll once again look to earn some trust from the coaching staff (and perhaps a small raise if he’s able to do so) but will be a non-tender candidate next summer as well.  Smith came over in free agency and is set to play a depth role.  Now 35, it’s likely he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-priced contracts from here on out.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Matt Dumba ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)

Robertson has emerged as a legitimate top-line star, notching 268 points in 238 games over the last three seasons.  Signing after a 41-goal effort, the two sides worked out a rare four-year bridge deal, one that gives Dallas some good value on the contract while also setting him up for a pricier contract in his final RFA-eligible campaign.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $9.3MM with arbitration rights at that time and unless he struggles over the next couple of seasons, there’s a good chance he’ll push past the $10MM mark in 2026.  Marchment, meanwhile, rebounded nicely after a quiet first season in Dallas.  If he stays near the 50-point mark over the next two seasons, he’ll have demonstrated enough consistency to give him a much stronger market, especially with the premium typically given to power forwards.  That could push his next price tag past $6MM per season.

Dumba didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last summer, resulting in him taking a one-year pact with an eye on having more success this summer.  That didn’t exactly happen as he had a quiet season in Arizona before finishing up with Tampa Bay, putting him back on the open market in a similar spot.  Getting two years at this money was more due to his track record than his performance last season; he’ll need to rebound if he wants a chance to get past the $4MM mark again in 2026.

Signed Through 2026-27

G Casey DeSmith ($1MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM, UFA)

It was expected that the best was yet to come from Seguin when he signed this contract in 2018.  While his best showing came just after this contract was signed (in the last season of his old deal), he has struggled since then, only putting up more than 50 points just once, that coming last season when he got to 52.  He’s still a capable top-six player but this is a price tag that’s well above market value.  His next deal might check in closer to half of this one as a result.

Lyubushkin rarely plays above the third pairing but did well enough last season to command his best contract so far.  That said, unless he can take on a bit more of a workload, it’s hard to see him getting another raise in 2027 as this is already on the rich side for someone destined to play around 16-17 minutes a night.

DeSmith gave Vancouver a small boost at the backup goalie position last season but after being surpassed by Arturs Silovs on the depth chart in the playoffs, it was clear DeSmith would be going elsewhere.  He elected for stability and a winning environment over chasing top dollar, giving the Stars a reliable second-string option at a below-market cost.

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East Notes: Marchand, Hollowell, Norlinder

at CDT | by 1 Comment

While Jeremy Swayman’s contract situation is rightfully getting the attention in Boston right now, Ken Campbell of The Hockey News highlights the other contract of note the Bruins will have to work out, which is an extension for Brad Marchand.  At the time he signed his team-friendly deal that carries a $6.25MM AAV, the talk was about how their top players left some money on the table to keep the core together.  Since then, David Pastrnak ($11.25MM AAV) and Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM AAV) have signed pricey deals with Swayman believed to be looking for $8MM or more as well.  While Marchand is nearing the end of his career (he’ll be 37 when his next contract starts), Campbell wonders if he could be inclined to look to maximize his potential earnings this time around.  He adds that there have been no discussions about an extension between the two sides so far.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • With the Penguins lacking right-shot depth on the back end, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonders if free agent addition Mac Hollowell could be this year’s version of Ryan Shea. Shea didn’t have any NHL experience heading into last season but wound up playing in 31 games.  Hollowell does have six games at the top level under his belt with Toronto in 2022-23 but spent last season with AHL Hartford, notching 44 points in 64 games.  Pittsburgh GM Kyle Dubas is familiar with Hollowell from their time in Toronto which could help his cause this coming season.
  • Free agent defenseman Mattias Norlinder has decided to decline the offer the Canadiens made to him over the weekend, relays Expressen’s Gunnar Nordstrom. Montreal non-tendered the 24-year-old in June after a quiet season with AHL Laval that saw him record just nine points in 50 games.  Norlinder’s agent indicated that his client’s preference was to play in an environment that would allow him more freedom offensively which has him wanting to play with MoDo, an organization he spent several years with previously.  However, the team lacks the budget to sign him and announced the creation of a crowdfunding campaign to raise $1MM SEK (a little under $100K in USD) to be able to get Norlinder signed.

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