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Golden Knights Notes: Marchessault, Theodore, Hagg

September 14, 2024 at 11:44 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

The departure of Jonathan Marchessault to Nashville in free agency was one of the bigger surprises with many expecting that he’d have re-signed with the Golden Knights.  Team reporter Gary Lawless transcribed a part of a Sirius XM interview with Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon where he indicated that while they eventually went to four years on their offer for the 33-year-old, they weren’t comfortable going to five which is how many he received from the Predators.  Marchessault spent seven seasons with Vegas, recording 192 goals and 225 assists in 514 games, making him the franchise leader in every category.

More from Vegas:

  • One player who will beat at least one of those club records this season is defenseman Shea Theodore who sits just two assists behind Marchessault (while also being 70 games behind that mark). The 29-year-old is entering the final year of his contract and Vegas’ Jason Pothier highlights how it won’t be easy to retain him.  Theodore held out for a pricey post-entry-level contract after being acquired (one that sees him making $5.2MM) and has been one of the more productive blueliners since then, ranking 13th in points by a defender since 2018.  He’ll begin his next deal at 30 and could add $3MM or more to his current price tag.  With Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin already on the books at more than $16MM combined, it might be tough for the Golden Knights to afford a third big-ticket rearguard on their books.
  • Veteran free agent blueliner Robert Hagg inked a one-year, one-way deal worth $775K with Vegas this summer. The 29-year-old told Expressen’s Gunnar Nordstrom that he had an offer from Modo in Sweden this summer which would have been a return to the program he played in before making the move to North America.  However, after a rough 2023-24 season that saw him play in just five NHL games with Anaheim, Hagg wanted an opportunity to show that he can be more of a contributor at the top level and isn’t ready to return to play at home just yet.

Vegas Golden Knights Jonathan Marchessault| Robert Hagg| Shea Theodore

3 comments

Antti Raanta Indicates He Won’t Play In The NHL Anymore

September 14, 2024 at 10:38 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

One of the remaining veteran free agent goaltenders is Antti Raanta but don’t expect his name to be added to the list of players accepting PTOs.  The veteran told Ilta-Sanomat’s Sami Hoffren that he has decided that his playing days in North America have come to an end.

The 35-year-old indicated that he did have some interest from NHL teams in free agency, including Toronto.  Meanwhile, Vancouver reached out with a PTO offer a few weeks ago as they look for veteran insurance with the uncertainty surrounding Thatcher Demko’s situation.  However, Raanta indicated that those teams were viewing him more as an insurance option and that there was a possibility that he would have had to start in the AHL.

Last season, Raanta was back with Carolina after a strong 2022-23 showing that saw him post a 2.23 GAA and a .910 SV% in 27 games.  Unfortunately for him and the Hurricanes, he struggled mightily last year, putting up a 2.99 GAA with a save percentage of just .872 and eventually, Carolina had to run him through waivers multiple times, sending him down to AHL Chicago after he cleared.  He didn’t see much playing time with the Wolves but didn’t fare any better than he did with Carolina.  Accordingly, the type of offer he was hoping for from an NHL team was unlikely to materialize.

Raanta’s NHL playing days end with 277 career appearances at the top level with four different organizations.  He posted a 139-80-29 record while putting up a 2.48 GAA, a .915 SV%, and 20 shutouts.  Overall, it was a solid career for someone who went undrafted and didn’t make his NHL debut until his age-24 campaign.

But while it’s the end of the road for Raanta in North America, it’s not necessarily the end of his playing days.  Raanta indicated to Hoffren that he’s looking to land a spot in Switzerland, Czechia, or Germany.  While he had offers from there in the spring, he turned them down at the time, hoping for an NHL offer to his liking to come around.  At this point, with international leagues either underway already or about to start, Raanta will be biding his time for the time being with the hopes of getting a call in the near future.

Newsstand Antti Raanta

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Summer Synopsis: Montreal Canadiens

September 12, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

In a summer when many teams either looked to add to their rosters to aid in their expected playoff push or sold as part of their rebuilding process, the Canadiens have largely stood pat, opting to continue their current trajectory from the rebuild that began in the season following their improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2021.  In doing so, they’ll be banking on continued development from their young core while hoping for better luck on the health front after dealing with considerable injury trouble in recent years.

Draft

1-5: RW Ivan Demidov, SKA-1946 St. Petersburg (MHL)
1-21: C Michael Hage, Chicago Steel (USHL)
3-70: C Aatos Koivu, TPS U20 (U20 SM-sarja)
3-78: C Logan Sawyer, Brooks Bandits (BCHL)
4-102: D Owen Protz, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL)
5-130: RW Tyler Thorpe, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
5-134: G Mikus Vecvanags, Tukums (Latvia2)
6-166: C Ben Merrill, St. Sebastian’s School (USHS-Prep)
7-210: RW Makar Khanin, Dynamo St. Petersburg (VHL)
7-224: D Rasmus Bergqvist, Skelleftea AIK J20 (J20 Nationell)

Some expected Demidov to go as high as second overall with few figuring he’d be available with the fifth selection.  After passing on another high-offense winger the year before in Matvei Michkov, the Canadiens were happy to get their hands on a player who they believe could be a game-breaking talent.  While he’ll play this season in the KHL, he’s expected to sign with Montreal once that campaign ends, providing the possibility that he could get into a game or two with the Canadiens before the end of the 2024-25 season.

That won’t be the case for Hage, however.  After a strong second half in the USHL, Hage is on his way to the University of Michigan.  While some college prospects are one-and-done, the likelier scenario for Hage is that he spends at least two seasons with the Wolverines, allowing him to ease his way into a top role before turning pro.

To start the second day of the draft, the Canadiens turned to a bloodline they’re familiar with in Koivu whose father Saku spent 13 years with the team.  While Saku was in the NHL two years after being drafted, that isn’t expected to be the case for Aatos who will be looking to make the full-time jump to the professional ranks in Finland.  Sawyer, a big center is also a longer-term project even after reclassifying to start with Providence College this season instead of waiting until 2025-26.

In recent years, the Canadiens have opted to largely eschew drafting from the CHL, a decision that gives them a longer signing timeline with most of their picks; only Protz and Thorpe have to sign by June 1, 2026.  As a team carrying 21 players on entry-level contracts at the moment, their hope is that this approach will allow them more time to integrate their prospects into their minor league system and lessen the potential of having too many to sign at a certain time.  And with a dozen picks for 2025 already, they may be continuing that approach for a little while longer.

UFA Signings

F Alex Barre-Boulet (one year, $775K)
G Connor Hughes (one year, $775K)*

*-denotes a two-way contract

Arguably no team was quieter than the Canadiens on the free agent front this summer.  Their one move was to make an addition that some feel is more for their AHL team than Montreal.  Barre-Boulet played in a career-high 36 games with Tampa Bay last season, picking up nine points.  But the 27-year-old has been a high-end AHL performer, recording 302 points in 294 games over six seasons at the minor league level.  An offseason training injury to Rafael Harvey-Pinard could give Barre-Boulet a path to a roster spot to start the season but if that doesn’t happen, he’s likely to play a big role with AHL Laval pending waiver clearance.

Technically, Hughes was signed in the spring, inking this deal nearly a month before free agency opened up but with Montreal not doing anything else on the open market, we’ll note it here.  The 28-year-old has taken a unique path to this NHL contract.  After not landing a CHL opportunity in his junior career, Hughes spent the last seven seasons in Switzerland, working his way up from the second league to the NL where he posted a 1.73 GAA and a .940 SV% in 19 games with Lausanne last season.  He’ll also likely battle for playing time in Laval.

Trade Acquisitions

F Patrik Laine (acquired from Columbus)

Again, it’s a pretty small section to work with as GM Kent Hughes only made one addition on the trade front.  It was, however, a notable one as Laine immediately becomes Montreal’s highest-paid skater at $8.7MM for the next two seasons; the contract was enough of an issue that the Canadiens also received a second-round pick as part of the move to absorb the full cost of it.

Last season was a rough one on multiple fronts for the 28-year-old.  When healthy, he struggled to the point of even being healthy scratched.  Laine then underwent shoulder surgery and entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program soon after, only being taken out of that in recent weeks.  The end result was a career-low 18 games played with just nine points.  However, Laine was a point-per-game or better in his two previous years in Columbus and Montreal will be counting on at least somewhat of a return to form to give them a lift offensively.

RFA Re-Signings

D Justin Barron (two years, $2.3MM)
D Arber Xhekaj (two years, $2.6MM)

Again, you guessed it, it was a pretty small list of RFAs for the Canadiens to navigate.  Both blueliners broke camp with Montreal last season but wound up seeing time in the AHL with the Rocket in an effort to work on some areas of concern before returning to the big club.

Barron, a 2020 first-round pick, logged over 18 minutes a night when he was with the Canadiens, often seeing time in the top four.  With only one other veteran right-shot blueliner in the mix (David Savard) and the fact he’s now waiver-eligible, Barron should have an opportunity to cement himself as a full-time regular this season.

As for Xhekaj, his playing time has been a bit more limited so far, averaging under 16 minutes a night in his first two seasons.  The 23-year-old has been one of the better undrafted free agent CHL players in recent memory, going from being undrafted in 2021 to seeing NHL action the following year.  Montreal doesn’t have a lot of intimidating players on their roster and it stands to reason he’ll be penciled in to remain on the third pairing for at least the short-term future.  Worth noting is that Xhekaj remains waiver-exempt so if the Canadiens are looking to dip in and out of LTIR (or stay out altogether), he could be someone who gets papered to the minors somewhat regularly early on.

Contract Extensions

D Kaiden Guhle (six years, $33MM)
F Juraj Slafkovsky (eight years, $60.8MM)

Continuity was the theme of Montreal’s summer so it comes as no surprise that their most prominent transactions in July revolved around that.

The team wasted little time getting a max-term extension for Slafkovsky done, buying four years of extra club control in the process while respecting the salary structure of Nick Suzuki being their top-paid forward (before Laine took that on six weeks later).  The 2022 number one pick had a dreadful start last season, leaving some calling for him to spend time in Laval.  Instead, Canadiens coach Martin St. Louis took a different approach, instead elevating Slafkovsky to the top line.  The move worked wonders as Slafkovsky picked up 16 goals and 19 assists in the second half of the season, showing signs of becoming the impactful power forward they want him to be.  Clearly, management felt that this was a sign of things to come and with this extension, Montreal’s top line is all signed through at least the 2029-30 campaign.

Meanwhile, management determined that Guhle is one of the building blocks on a back end that has gotten very young very quickly (with a few prospects still looking to make the jump).  The 2020 first-round pick has had injury issues in his first two professional campaigns but when he was in the lineup, he logged over 20 minutes each year.  Montreal will be counting on him to play a key defensive role both now and in the future on a back end that is still expected to have a fair amount of turnover over the next couple of years.  The deal buys two extra years of club control while giving Guhle a chance to hit the open market at 29, giving him a chance at another long-term deal.

Departures

F Lias Andersson (Biel-Bienne, NL)
F Filip Cederqvist (Frolunda, SHL)
F Arnaud Durandeau (Amur Khaborovsk, KHL)
D Jordan Harris (trade with Columbus)
D Brady Keeper (Poprad, Slovakia)
D Johnathan Kovacevic (trade with New Jersey)
F Philippe Maillet (Ambri-Piotta, NL)
D Mattias Norlinder (MoDo, SHL)
F Tanner Pearson (PTO, Vegas)
F Mitchell Stephens (Seattle, two years, $1.55M)*
F Colin White (San Jose, AHL)
D Chris Wideman (retirement)
F Jesse Ylonen (Tampa Bay, one year, $775K)*

*-denotes a two-way contract

On the trade front, the Canadiens parted with a pair of regular defenders from the past two seasons, opening up room for some younger players to push for a spot.  Harris was the return going to Columbus in the Laine swap.  The 24-year-old has 131 career NHL contests under his belt already, establishing himself as a capable depth defender, a role he should be able to push for with the Blue Jackets.  As for Kovacevic, he was a waiver claim late in training camp in 2022 and more or less was a full-time player after that, getting into 139 NHL games since then.  Signed for one more year at a cap charge below the league minimum salary, Kovacevic is likely to have more of a depth role with New Jersey, barring injuries.

On the free agent departure side, Montreal didn’t lose any core pieces.  Ylonen played in a career-best 59 games last season but managed just eight points, resulting in a non-tender.  Pearson was acquired as a salary offset in a late-summer trade with Vancouver last year but had a very limited role while White, a late-season waiver pickup, failed to record a point in 28 NHL games last season.  Aside from Wideman (who didn’t play due to injury), the rest of the departures were from the AHL level; the Canadiens are opting to fill those roles with prospects and some veterans on minor-league contracts.

Salary Cap Outlook

At the moment, the Canadiens project to be a little more than $2MM above the cap ceiling, per PuckPedia.  However, that figure includes Carey Price ($10.5MM) who remains LTIR-eligible should Montreal not be able to get below the $88MM Upper Limit before the start of the season.  While staying in LTIR would give them a seven-figure bonus overage penalty for 2025-26 (as they have this season and had the year before), Price being on LTIR would give them more than enough space to operate with.  If they opt to stay in LTIR all season, it’s possible that they look to take on a contract from a team looking to open up extra cap space.

Key Questions

What Will Laine Provide? When Laine is at his best, he is a high-end goal scorer who can play around a point-per-game level.  If he can get back to that level, he can provide a significant boost to Montreal’s forward group, giving them some much-needed secondary scoring on a roster that has been in the bottom six in goals scored in three straight years.  But his struggles pre-injury with the Blue Jackets were certainly significant and after being off since mid-December, it’s far from a guarantee that he can get back to his top form.  Laine asked for a fresh start and now he has it; we’ll soon see if that can kick-start him after a rough 2023-24 campaign.

Is Hutson Ready For Prime Time? One of the storylines heading into the 2022 draft was Lane Hutson, a player with first-round talent but he was well undersized for a blueliner.  He slipped to the end of the second round and then lit up the NCAA for two seasons, securing his entry-level deal and getting into two games with Montreal to finish the year where he had two assists.  Will Hutson and his high-skilled offensive game be able to stick with the Canadiens or will he need time with Laval?  If Hutson can crack Montreal’s roster, he should become a second legitimate offensive threat from the back end, joining Mike Matheson who quietly finished ninth in points by a defenseman last season.

Can Dach Become A Full-Time Top-Six Center? After showing some promise down the middle late in 2022-23, Kirby Dach was slotted in as Montreal’s second-line center to start last season.  That lasted for all of four periods before he suffered a season-ending knee injury.  Injuries have been a consistent problem for the 2019 third-overall selection going back to his time with Chicago.  Nonetheless, the Canadiens didn’t look to add any help down the middle this summer; their only other potential center with some offensive upside is Alex Newhook who might be better suited on the wing.  Suffice it to say, they’re counting on Dach staying healthy and having a breakout year.  With Hage being at least a couple of years away and being their top center prospect, Dach has some runway to work with.  Can he become that core player the Blackhawks were counting on him to be five years ago?  This season might go a long way toward answering that question.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Montreal Canadiens| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Summer Synopsis 2024

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East Notes: Peat, Merkulov, Canadiens

September 12, 2024 at 6:50 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The NHL Alumni Association announced today (Twitter link) that former Capitals winger Stephen Peat has passed away at the age of 44 from injuries sustained in a car accident a little over two weeks ago.  He was drafted by Anaheim in the second round in 1998 but never played for them as he was moved to Washington two years later.  Peat spent parts of five seasons in the Capitals organization, getting into 130 games at the NHL level where he had ten points and 234 penalty minutes, wrapping up his pro career one year later in the 2006-07 season.   We at PHR send our condolences to Peat’s family and friends.

More from the Eastern Conference:

  • The Bruins intend to use Georgii Merkulov at center at training camp, relays Steve Conroy of the Boston Herald. The 23-year-old made his NHL debut last season, getting into four games with Boston where he was held off the scoresheet but he was quite productive with AHL Providence, notching 30 goals and 35 assists in 67 games.  Boston signed Elias Lindholm to anchor the top line this summer while they acquired Mark Kastelic who should hold down the center spot on the fourth line.  With Charlie Coyle still in the mix presumably the center on the second trio, it appears that Merkulov will have to beat out Matthew Poitras and PTO Tyler Johnson to land a regular role in the lineup.
  • The Canadiens announced several hires today and while most were in the scouting or training departments, they added Roger Grillo as a coaching consultant. Presumably, he’ll help fill the role vacated by Alex Burrows who moved from being an assistant coach into a player development role.  Grillo was on the coaching staff at the University of Vermont when head coach Martin St. Louis played there and had been with USA Hockey since 2009.  This will be Grillo’s first coaching job in the pros.

Boston Bruins| Montreal Canadiens| Washington Capitals Georgii Merkulov

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Five Key Stories: 9/2/24 – 9/8/24

September 8, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Training camps are almost upon us but beyond an uptick in PTOs as expected, it was a relatively quiet week across the NHL aside from a record-breaking contract which is one of our key stories of the past seven days.

Off To Switzerland: Unable to secure a contract to their liking from an NHL team, a pair of wingers have opted to try their hand in Switzerland.  First, winger Filip Zadina inked a two-year contract with HC Davos.  The 2018 sixth-overall pick spent last season with San Jose after terminating his deal with Detroit in the hopes that a change of scenery would give him a better opportunity.  Instead, he put up just 23 points in 72 games along with a ghastly -44 rating.  Still just 24, a good showing in the NL could get him back on the NHL radar fairly quickly.  A few days later, veteran winger Dominik Kubalik signed a one-year deal with Ambri-Piotta.  The 29-year-old spent last season with Ottawa after being acquired in the Alex DeBrincat deal but struggled considerably, recording a career-low 15 points in 74 appearances.  His deal contains an NHL out clause should an opportunity present itself at the top level by December 15th.

Surgery For Krug: After the rehab period didn’t yield any improvement, Blues defenseman Torey Krug will undergo ankle surgery to address pre-arthritic changes in his left ankle, a procedure that will end his 2024-25 season before it even starts.  The 33-year-old had 39 points last season in 77 games while logging nearly 22 minutes a night and will effectively be replaced by offer sheet pickup Philip Broberg.  Krug will be eligible to be placed on LTIR should St. Louis need to put him there.  Meanwhile, while the hope is that Krug will be able to return next season, GM Doug Armstrong acknowledged that this injury could wind up being a career-ender for the veteran.

Draisaitl Sets A Record: While it may have taken longer than some in Edmonton would have liked, the Oilers and center Leon Draisaitl reached an agreement on an eight-year, $112MM contract extension, one that comes into place for the 2025-26 campaign.  The $14MM AAV is the highest in NHL history while it’s the second-richest contract in league history.  (The highest was Alex Ovechkin’s 13-year, $124MM pact, one that is now illegal with the maximum length being eight seasons.)  The 28-year-old has been one of the top scorers in the league for several years now; only his teammate Connor McDavid has more points than he does over the last five seasons.  That made it quite likely that he’d eclipse Auston Matthews’ record-setting $13.25MM AAV.  Draisaitl won’t hold the record for long, however, with McDavid being extension-eligible next summer.

Three Surgeries For Marchand: It was a busy summer for Bruins captain Brad Marchand but perhaps not in the way you might think.  The winger indicated that he had three separate surgeries over the offseason.  One was to repair a torn tendon in his elbow that he played through for most of the year while later having abdominal and groin surgeries to address injuries sustained late in the season.  Marchand managed to play through those issues, playing in all 82 games in 2023-24, recording 67 points.  It appears he might be limited at the beginning of training camp but he is expected to be ready to suit up when the regular season begins next month.

Veteran Defensemen Retire: A pair of long-time NHL blueliners officially called it a career in recent days.  Marc Staal spent most of his playing career with the Rangers and will begin his post-playing days there as well as it was announced that he has been hired as a player development assistant.  The 37-year-old played 17 seasons in the NHL, the first 13 of which came with New York.  Staal retires with 234 points, 1,448 blocks, and 1,643 hits in 1,136 career games at the top level.  Meanwhile, veteran rearguard Alex Goligoski confirmed that his playing days have come to an end.  The 39-year-old spent the last three seasons with Minnesota, his hometown team and he had no desire to uproot his family to attempt to keep playing.  Goligoski had 475 points, 1,777 blocks, and 1,164 hits in 1,078 appearances over his 17-year NHL career.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Week In Review

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Snapshots: Dermott, Tucker, Zelenov

September 8, 2024 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

While there has been plenty of speculation surrounding the Oilers when it comes to adding a right-shot defenseman (either via PTO or a one-year deal) heading into training camp, Postmedia’s Kurt Leavins wonders if they might go a different direction.  He suggests that it might be more likely that veteran blueliner Travis Dermott could wind up in Edmonton for training camp.  While the 27-year-old is a left-shot player, he can play on the right side and he played for head coach Kris Knoblauch in his junior days with OHL Erie while Jeff Jackson, Edmonton’s CEO of Hockey Operations, used to be his agent.  Dermott played on a two-way deal last season with Arizona, picking up seven points in 50 games while logging over 17 minutes a night.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Matthew DeFranks of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch assesses the defensive situation for the Blues. Even with Torey Krug’s season over before it even started, St. Louis has ample depth with nine players who could plausibly make a case for a roster spot.  Matthew Kessel is the lone waiver-exempt player which could hurt his chances while DeFranks suggests that Tyler Tucker might be the one with the most work to do to maintain his roster spot.  Unless St. Louis wants to carry eight blueliners to start the season, they’ll have to put one of their current rearguards on waivers barring an injury in training camp.
  • Sabres prospect Vasili Zelenov is generating a lot of NCAA interest, reports Mark Divver of the New England Hockey Journal (Twitter link). The 18-year-old was a seventh-round pick in June, going 204th overall after a strong season in Austria, one that saw him put up 37 points in 40 games.  Zelenov is playing with USHL Green Bay this season and will likely look to make the jump to college hockey for the 2025-26 season.

Buffalo Sabres| Edmonton Oilers| Snapshots| St. Louis Blues Matthew Kessel| Travis Dermott| Tyler Tucker| Vasili Zelenov

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

September 8, 2024 at 6:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is St. Louis.

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $86,732,208 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake Neighbours (one year, $835.8K)

Neighbours wasn’t expected to be one of the Blues’ top goal-getters in his first full NHL season but he did just that, notching 27 tallies, good for a tie for second on the team.  That said, it makes sense for both sides to see if it that’s repeatable before approaching extension talks.  A bridge deal at this point should check in around $3MM but another strong showing could push those discussions toward a longer-term agreement.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Radek Faksa ($3.25MM, UFA)
G Joel Hofer ($775K, RFA)
D Pierre-Olivier Joseph ($950K, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($1MM, UFA)
D Scott Perunovich ($1.15MM, RFA)
D Ryan Suter ($775K, UFA)
F Alexey Toropchenko ($1.25MM, RFA)
D Tyler Tucker ($800K, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Suter: $2.25MM

Faksa was acquired from Dallas in a cap-clearing move but he still is a capable player in a checking role while consistently being above-average at the faceoff dot.  That said, his limitations offensively will hurt him on the open market.  His track record is good enough to secure another multi-year deal but the cap hit is more likely to start with a two than a three this time around.

Toropchenko has been a good depth scorer who has added plenty of physicality in his first two NHL campaigns.  That said, with a limited role, he shouldn’t be able to land too much more than this, even with arbitration eligibility.  On the high end, the 25-year-old might be able to get to the $2MM mark.  Kapanen’s first full season with St. Louis saw him struggle, resulting in him taking a sizable pay cut to stick around.  Now, the deal has a chance to be a team-friendly one if he can get back to the 30-point level.  He’ll need to do so in order to have an opportunity to get any sort of notable raise next summer.

Perunovich has shown flashes of the offensive ability that made him a touted prospect but staying healthy has been a consistent problem for him.  This contract buys both sides a bit more time for evaluation but he’ll need to stay healthy and be a consistent contributor to have a chance at a multi-year agreement.  Joseph comes over from Pittsburgh after being non-tendered (a fate that could await Perunovich if he has another injury-plagued campaign) where he had a limited role.  He’s likely to have a similar role with his new team so unless he’s willing to stay around this price point, he could be non-tendered again to avoid arbitration.

Suter signed with the Blues in free agency after being bought out by Dallas.  There are four levels of bonuses based on games played; if he maxes those out, he’ll receive $1.725MM if he gets to 60 games ($1.125MM at 40) plus another $500K if his team makes the playoffs and he plays in 60 games.  If the Blues are out of the playoffs and look to move Suter, that $500K potential bonus would transfer to the acquiring team which will be something worth noting.  It’s a creative contract structure to say the least and if Suter wants to keep playing after 2024-25, he could very well sign another one like this.  Tucker has had a depth role the last couple of years but hasn’t locked down a full-time spot yet.  He’s likely to be in a similar situation this season which won’t help his marketability.  If he plays in 28 games with St. Louis, however, the Blues can regain his RFA rights instead of him becoming a Group Six free agent.

Hofer did quite well in his first season as a full-time backup, putting up a GAA (2.65) and SV% (.913) that were better than league average.  Another showing like that could push the asking price towards the $3MM mark, especially if the Blues wanted to buy out a UFA year or two.  If he falters a bit this season, then the cost should check in closer to $2MM.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Philip Broberg ($4.581MM, RFA)
F Dylan Holloway ($2.29MM, RFA)
D Matthew Kessel ($800K, RFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($2.95MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alexandre Texier ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Nathan Walker ($775K, UFA)

Saad hasn’t been able to get back to the scoring levels he had earlier in his career with Columbus but he has averaged 23 goals per season since joining the Blues.  This price tag for that type of production is pretty well close to market value.  That said, he’ll be 33 when his next deal starts so he’s probably not putting himself in position for a sizable increase next time out either.  Joseph was acquired from the Senators in a cap-clearing move and will look to build off a career year in 2023-24.  A capable checker, if Joseph could stay around that 30-point mark, he could earn a small raise two years from now.

Holloway came over from Edmonton in one of the offer sheets tendered earlier this month.  His production thus far doesn’t justify that price tag but if he can secure a regular spot in the top nine, the scoring output to warrant that cost should come fairly quickly.  Texier was acquired from Columbus and was quickly signed to this deal.  Offensive consistency has been a problem so far in his career and he’ll need to improve on that if he wants to get to the next level contract-wise.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible next time out and if his production dips a bit, he could get into non-tender territory as well but on the flip side, if the change of scenery helps, he could command at least $3MM in 2026.

Sundqvist had to settle for a minimum contract in 2023-24 and did rather well with it, earning this extension just before the trade deadline in March.  With the extra depth they’ve brought in, it’s hard to see him boosting his production enough to warrant a considerable raise down the road; he seems likely to stay around this price point moving forward as a result.  Walker has seen more NHL time than AHL time the last two seasons, giving him this two-year, one-way deal.  But with the additions they’ve made, he could be on the outside looking in before too long.  Any sort of extended AHL stretch on this contract could hurt his chances of a one-way agreement two years from now.

Broberg was the big addition via the offer sheet route as the Blues feel he can become a core defender down the road.  But right now, this is a fairly steep overpayment based on what he has accomplished so far.  He’ll have a chance to change that over the next two years and if he becomes the blueliner they think he can, he could be the next Blues defender to get a long-term deal.  Leddy has logged big minutes since joining St. Louis but it stands to reason that Broberg will start to cut into that with him being part of the long-term plans with Leddy, currently 33, not likely to be in those.  Even so, if he can play a steady role at 18-20 minutes a night, another short-term deal around this price tag could be doable.  Kessel held his own in 39 games with St. Louis last season but his waiver exemption is likely to work against him.  Until he can secure a full-time role, he won’t be able to make a case for much more than this.

Signed Through 2026-27

G Jordan Binnington ($6MM, UFA)
D Justin Faulk ($6.5MM, UFA)
D Torey Krug ($6.5MM, UFA)

Faulk took a bit of a step back offensively last season while injuries didn’t help either.  But for the most part, he has been an above-average contributor while spending a lot of time on the top pairing.  He might not necessarily be a true top-pairing piece on every team but Faulk has made it work in that role, giving St. Louis a solid return so far.  Krug hasn’t had as much success and now there are concerns about if he’ll be able to play again.  At a minimum, he’s out for the season so if the Blues have some injuries, he’ll be LTIR-eligible, giving them some flexibility on that front and in doing so, it takes him off the table for their potential worst-valued contract.

Binnington has been hit or miss in recent years when it comes to playing at the level of a starting goaltender, let alone one of the higher-paid ones.  Last season was one of the better ones as he finished sixth in the league in games played while being tied for eighth in save percentage (with Hofer, among others).  Unfortunately, that’s the highest save percentage he’s had in the last five years.  Binnington is the seventh-highest-paid goalie in the league in terms of AAV for 2024-25, sixth if you take Carey Price (who will once again be on LTIR) out of the equation.  While the Blues received a level of performance at least close to that range last season, they haven’t had that with enough consistency to get a good return on this contract.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8MM in 2024-25, $8MM from 2025-26 through 2030-31)
F Jordan Kyrou ($8.125MM through 2030-31)
D Colton Parayko ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
F Brayden Schenn ($6.5MM through 2027-28)
F Robert Thomas ($8.125MM through 2030-31)

Kyrou and Thomas are on identical contracts by design as GM Doug Armstrong envisions them as the focal points of the offense for the long haul.  As is often the case with younger players getting these types of contracts, they haven’t necessarily delivered market value in each season but the expectation is that they should be club-friendly agreements in the back half.  Thomas is coming off his first year of being above a point per game while Kyrou has had at least 67 points in each of the last three seasons.  Assuming they can improve upon those numbers over time, both contracts should work out relatively well.

It’s no coincidence that Buchnevich’s extension checks in just below those two; it’s possible that the organization is viewing that price point as the number they won’t go above.  While he’s coming off a quieter year, he has been pretty consistent since coming to St. Louis and with 206 points in 216 games over three seasons with them, that’s the type of production that was going to get him that price tag from someone had he made it to the open market.  Schenn saw his output drop considerably last season and with the wear and tear he has from his physical style of play over his career, there will be some concerns about his ability to perform at the end of his contract.  For now though, he should be able to live up to the price tag for another year or two.

Parayko has managed to stay healthy over the last three seasons, an area that was of some concern before that time.  While he has shown flashes of being above-average offensively, he hasn’t been able to do so consistently enough to become that true two-way threat.  That said, he plays the toughest minutes while bringing a solid defensive presence to the table and at least some periodic offensive upside.  At this price point, that’s still a reasonable return although the track record of back trouble will continue to linger.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Nikita Alexandrov

Alexandrov had a very sporadic role when he was up with St. Louis and spent more time on the bench than in the lineup.  With just nine career points in 51 NHL games, he doesn’t have the track record to command any sort of significant raise from his entry-level salary.  This is the type of situation where the team might be offering a one-way deal at a pay cut in terms of his cap hit.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the final agreement come in close to that.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Hofer
Worst Value: Broberg

Looking Ahead

Armstrong was able to leverage his cap space well this summer, resulting in them adding a couple of intriguing young pieces via the offer sheet route while still having enough flexibility to potentially bank some in-season room.  Even if injuries make that impossible, they’ll still have the ability to place Krug on LTIR, giving them ample security on that front.  As a result, they’re in better shape than a lot of teams heading into the season.

With nearly $79MM in commitments for 2025-26 already, the Blues aren’t going to be in a spot where they can add much next offseason.  However, that drops to just $31.75MM for 2026-27, giving incoming GM Alex Steen a relatively clean slate to work with as he’ll look to put his stamp on the roster at that time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024| St. Louis Blues

1 comment

Possible Comparables For Dawson Mercer’s Contract

September 7, 2024 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

One of the more prominent remaining free agents is Devils forward Dawson Mercer.  While he’s coming off a down season, he has had enough success over his first three NHL seasons that New Jersey would likely want to work out a long-term deal with them.  Whether they can afford to, however, might be a different story.

The 22-year-old had the lowest output of his career last season but still managed 20 goals and 13 assists while playing all 82 games for the third straight year.  But with a 42-point effort in his rookie season and a 56-point showing in his sophomore campaign, there’s enough of a track record for a long-term deal to potentially make sense.

Looking at some potential comparables, one of their division rivals has a couple of them in Joel Farabee and Travis Konecny (his current deal, not the extension he just signed).  Both were post-entry-level pacts, checking in at $5MM and $5.5MM respectively.  Mercer’s numbers are better than Farabee’s so it’s likely to come in above that while Mercer’s best year was better than Konecny’s at that point.  If we use cap percentages (to reflect the increase in the salary cap at that time), the range of the two deals moves to between $5.333MM and $5.94MM.

Other possible comparable players in that range are Florida’s Anton Lundell ($5MM signed this year) and Nick Schmaltz ($5.875MM).  Notably, none of those contracts were for the maximum eight years either; three were six-year agreements while Schmaltz was the exception at seven seasons.  At this point, something in the high-$5MM area might be the right fit on a six-year deal for Mercer, one that would buy out two years of UFA eligibility.  Going longer (adding on more UFA years) would only push that price tag higher.

But even affording the six-year contract would appear to be a challenge at first glance.  At the moment, the team projects to have $4.976MM in cap space for the upcoming season, per PuckPedia, with a projected 22-player roster.  They could increase that wiggle room by not carrying a full-sized roster but that leaves them vulnerable to injuries.

It’s also worth mentioning that they have more than $5MM in potential performance bonuses for Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes so they may want to leave themselves some wiggle room to absorb some of those – if earned – on the 2024-25 cap instead of rolling them over to their 2025-26 cap.  Additionally, they will almost certainly want to leave themselves some room for in-season movement.

Put it all together and a long-term contract simply isn’t doable, not without moving someone of consequence off their current roster.  And while something like that isn’t impossible, a lot of teams are now tight to the cap ceiling so it’s not as easy as it was six weeks ago to move money; let’s face it, it wasn’t all that easy then either.

That squarely pushes the contract needle in the bridge direction for Mercer.  A two-year agreement would only cover one arbitration-eligible season but should check in around the $3.5MM per season mark, one that would leave GM Tom Fitzgerald at least $1MM in flexibility heading into the fall.  That’s not a lot – especially if there’s an early injury – but that would still have them in reasonable shape.  With him being four years away from UFA eligibility, something in the three-to-five-year range would be a bit riskier so it’s less likely to be one of those lengths.

While it might sound simple enough in theory, this is the type of contractual situation that can drag out.  If Mercer’s camp wants to hold out for the possibility of a long-term agreement, they’ll need to wait to see if something happens in terms of roster movement over the next six weeks or so.  And if both sides are resigned to a short-term agreement, Mercer could simply opt to wait until closer to camp to see if there’s an injury that gives him a bit more leverage and perhaps gives him a chance at a bit more money.  Neither of those scenarios are any reason for concern, that’s just sometimes how things play out with players coming off entry-level deals if they’re not signed at this point.

Despite the down year, Mercer is quite likely to be viewed as a key piece of New Jersey’s plans for the foreseeable future.  But with how their roster looks, it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to give him the type of contract commensurate with a core player.  Barring a change, that contract will have to come after they get through a bridge deal first.

New Jersey Devils| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals Dawson Mercer

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Flyers Notes: Johansen, Kolosov, Znarok

September 7, 2024 at 2:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

While the Flyers were hoping to get some confirmation on the Ryan Johansen situation in the near future, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that it may take until closer to the start of the regular season before they get a resolution on that front.  Philadelphia has run the veteran through termination waivers citing a breach of contract, one that his representation intends to grieve citing Johansen’s hip injury.  However, the actual termination has not yet taken place, meaning his $4MM cap charge remains on their books in full.  At the moment, the team would need to dip into LTIR, per PuckPedia, an outcome that wouldn’t be necessary if the Flyers are indeed able to get Johansen’s deal off their books entirely.

More from Philadelphia:

  • Also from Kurz, a team source notes that Alexei Kolosov’s situation remains “in limbo” after a late-August meeting between the club and the goaltender’s representatives. His situation has been well-documented with Kolosov’s desire being to play in the KHL this season on loan, something that the Flyers don’t want to do.  While Calvin Petersen (pending waiver clearance in the preseason) will be at AHL Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia’s preference is to have Kolosov developing down there as their third-stringer with the potential to see NHL action at some point in the season.  We’ll find out in the coming weeks which side gets their way.
  • While not announced by the team, they have hired long-time international coach Oleg Znarok as their European Player Development and Scouting Consultant, according to their hockey personnel page. The 61-year-old coached in Latvia and Russia for the better part of two decades, including multiple stints at the World Championship and the Olympics.  Out of coaching since late 2022, it appears that Znarok has given up on going back behind a bench and will now serve as an advisor to a Philadelphia team that is getting Matvei Michkov this season while having Ivan Fedotov for an entire year after he got his feet wet in the NHL late in 2023-24.

Philadelphia Flyers Alexei Kolosov| Ryan Johansen

1 comment

Chase De Leo Expected To Sign In KHL

September 7, 2024 at 2:30 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

September 7: De Leo has officially signed with Barys Astana, per a team announcement.  He receives a one-year deal.

August 24: After spending the last two full seasons in the minors, it appears that UFA forward Chase De Leo is opting to try his hand overseas.  Sport-Express’ Ivan Bohun reports that De Leo is expected to sign a one-year contract with Barys Astana of the KHL.

The 28-year-old has been a quality producer in the AHL for the past nine seasons, including 2023-24 when he put up 15 goals and 33 assists in 52 games with San Diego, good for third on Anaheim’s farm team in scoring despite missing 20 games.  However, despite the solid production, none of those games missed were due to an NHL opportunity but rather an injury.

For his career, De Leo has 135 goals and 214 assists in 494 AHL appearances.  But that level of production hasn’t yielded much of an opportunity at the top level.  While he has seen NHL action in five seasons (most recently in 2021-22 with New Jersey), his total number of NHL contests is only seven where he wasn’t able to hit the scoresheet.

De Leo has been subject to the AHL veteran rule for the past three seasons, a restriction that often makes it difficult for older players to find another opportunity at that level.  Whether that’s the reason for De Leo’s expected signing with Astana or whether he just wants to try another league, it appears his time in North America is coming to an end for the time being.

KHL Chase De Leo

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