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Snapshots: Greig, Blake, Dunn, Kolosov

October 13, 2024 at 7:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Senators center Ridly Greig is dealing with an upper-body injury, relays Sportsnet’s Alex Adams (Twitter link).  The 22-year-old locked down a regular spot in Ottawa’s lineup for most of last season, notching 13 goals and 13 assists in 72 games while logging nearly 15 minutes a night.  Greig has been on the wing to start the year and missed a couple of shifts in Saturday’s game against Montreal, presumably due to the injury.  He might not be out for long, however, as head coach Travis Green noted that Greig could still suit up on Monday against Los Angeles.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • The Hurricanes quietly papered winger Jackson Blake down to AHL Chicago on Saturday. However, his time there was short-lived as he has already been recalled, per the AHL’s transactions log.  The move simply allowed them to bank a few thousand dollars in cap space with Carolina’s game against Tampa Bay postponed yesterday.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Hurricanes do this with some regularity with Blake, their lone waiver-exempt player, to try to open up a bit more spending flexibility.
  • Kraken defenseman Vince Dunn is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, relays team broadcaster Piper Shaw (Twitter link). He played into the final minute of Saturday’s game but the issue was enough to keep him out of tonight’s contest against Dallas.  The 27-year-old has two points in his first two games this season after putting up 46 in 59 appearances in 2023-24.
  • Late last month, Flyers prospect Alexei Kolosov ended his stalemate with the team, reporting to training camp after an agreement was reached that could allow for a potential return later on. That potential return might come sooner than later, however, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this week in his 32 Thoughts column that Philadelphia only has until the end of the month to convince him about their plans for him.  Kolosov made it known over the summer that he wants to play in the KHL this season if he was going to be in the minors.  While he’s with the Phantoms for now, he might not be there for too much longer based on Friedman’s report.

AHL| Carolina Hurricanes| Ottawa Senators| Philadelphia Flyers| Seattle Kraken| Snapshots Alexei Kolosov| Jackson Blake| Ridly Greig| Vince Dunn

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PHR Mailbag: Impact Youngsters, Record-Breaking Contract, Fowler, Goalies, Struggling Contender, Minors

October 13, 2024 at 6:19 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a discussion about a Cam Fowler trade scenario, plenty of goalie talk, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

wreckage: Do you expect Michkov or Bedard to be more impactful going forward? Bedard may have more skill, slightly. Michkov likely has a deeper team behind him at the moment. For the next three years… who has more impact in the NHL?

I’ll go with Connor Bedard for this one.  Yes, Chicago has a weaker team on paper right now but Philadelphia is still rebuilding as well, despite them nearly making the playoffs last season.  Both teams are probably on the outside looking in for at least the first two of those three years.  The good news is that Matvei Michkov should get a lot of runway to play big minutes quickly like Bedard did last season but there’s only so much impact he can have on a non-playoff team.

Generally speaking, I’m going to lean toward a high-end center having more of an impact than a high-end winger on a year-to-year basis.  Bedard will be a year further ahead in his development, entering what should be a very pricey second contract at a time when Chicago should be starting to take some steps forward in the Central.  He’s going to be a big part of that.  Not to say Michkov shouldn’t be an impactful piece by any stretch but I expect most players won’t be quite as impactful as Bedard should be in a few years.

riverrat55: Who is the 1st player with the upcoming increase in the Salary Cap to ask for $20MM?

Before tackling this, we need to figure out our target cap percentage that will cost $20MM.  Teams, players and agents use this percentage as a direct comparable in negotiations.  (For anyone wondering, 20% is the maximum, a rate we haven’t seen reached in quite some time.  I remember some when the first cap came out but that’s about it.)  Auston Matthews’ contract is 15.06% of the cap while Leon Draisaitl’s recent one checks in at 15.91%.  Connor McDavid’s current one is 15.72% and I could see it eclipsing the 16% mark (which, on a $92MM-plus cap, puts the AAV in the $15MM range).  For the sake of this hypothetical, let’s put a target cap percentage at 16.5%.

Let’s do some quick math here.  $20MM divided by 16.5% = $121.212MM.  Why does this matter?  We need to project when the Upper Limit of the salary cap might get to this amount to see who will need a contract at this time.

This year, the cap is $88MM with a 5% capped increase next season and the year after that.  That would make the ceiling $92.4MM in 2025-26 and $97.02MM in 2026-27 before the CBA expires.  (The league did make this year’s cap a bit higher than the 5% increase so this isn’t a perfect scenario but close.)  It wouldn’t shock me to see a bit more of a jump after that, assuming revenues stay on their current trajectory.  Let’s say it’s a 10% boost post-CBA.  That makes the cap $106.72MM in 2027-28.  Let’s forecast 7% increases on average after that.  In 2028-29, it would be $114.19MM and in 2029-30, it’d be $122.19MM.  So, the 2029-30 season is the earliest we could see that price point.

Assuming that most core players will continue to sign max-term deals, that probably takes McDavid off the table.  Cale Makar is up in 2027 so he’s off the table.  Matthews’ deal expires in 2028 so he’s not going to get there either.  The rest of the established elite will either be signed through that time or on the backswing of their careers in 2030.

With that in mind, my guess would be Bedard if I’m picking a current player.  He’d have a shot at that in 2034 if he signs a max-term contract coming off his entry-level deal.  If he goes shorter-term, he could get there sooner.  We’re going to see a bigger jump in the cap coming sooner than later but even with that, it’s probably going to take a while to see someone reach $20MM unless there’s a material jump in the Upper Limit in the new CBA or some sort of other drastic change.

jminn: The Ducks want to trade Fowler. Kings could have a need, even though Cam is a lefty. Is there any chance Fowler moves up the freeway?

I’m going to be a little picky on the phrasing as it’s not necessarily that they’re looking to trade Fowler but rather that they’re willing to work with him on finding a new home.  If he winds up staying there for most or all of the season, I think that’s an outcome they’re okay with.

But semantics aside, I don’t think this is a good fit for Los Angeles and not because of the handedness.  Drew Doughty is expected to be back this season so while the Kings have around $10MM in cap room right now per PuckPedia, that money isn’t really spendable as they’ll need to get back to compliance before they can activate him.  That’s easy to do with a replacement from the minors but Fowler has a $6.5MM cap hit.  That means that barring further long-term injuries, the Kings would need to clear around $6.5MM off the books when the time comes to activate Doughty.  That’s going to be extremely difficult to do midseason.

Would Fowler help the Kings?  He certainly would.  But this isn’t the right move for them to make at this time.  Los Angeles needs to exhaust their internal options and see if Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence can take on bigger workloads.  Then, if that doesn’t go well, they can re-assess but even then, it’d have to be for a much cheaper option than Fowler.

Frozenaquatic: There’s an interesting conversation happening right now about goalie salaries. Obviously, the argument for lower salaries is that aside from Hellebuyck, even top goalies play about 60 – 65 games (even though starting pitchers command high salaries despite only playing 30 out of 162 games). And how much does a goalie matter for a championship (or was Darcy Kuemper the Trent Dilfer of the NHL–just an anomaly in a rare system that usually favors Tom Bradys/Vasilevskys)?

Another argument is that they are only as good as the system–how much will Ullmark regress behind a much worse Sens system and would Swayman regress that same amount? They’re also mercurial–Shesterkin could sign an eight-year, $104MM contract and begin an eight-year slump.

The argument for higher salaries is that they may affect those games more than the other players. Great goalies sometimes open a championship window. They can represent a winning culture that other players want to play for.

Where do you fall on the goalie salary spectrum?

Second question is: Do you know if players take playing with goalies into consideration when they sign UFA contracts with new teams?

Third question: if you were in a legacy fantasy league, would you take Askarov, Cossa, or Wallstedt?

1) In general, I’d say goalies have felt the squeeze in recent years.  With a lot of teams shifting closer to a platoon, there has certainly been a concerted effort to try to spend less at that position.  It also should be noted that the number of true higher-end starters has gone down which is part of the reason teams are looking for goalies to be closer to splitting the duties.

What has been interesting to me lately is that teams with a legitimate number one have largely managed to get that player locked up on what looks like a team-friendly agreement.  Part of me wonders if the fact a lot of teams are looking to cut costs between the pipes actually has deflated the marketability for some of those players.  While supply is low, it’s getting offset by perceived lower demand.

That’s what made the Jeremy Swayman saga particularly interesting as here’s a player trying to reach that upper tier (some would say he’s there already while others might want to see him play more first) that seemingly held out for top dollar.  It seems like Igor Shesterkin is hoping to do the same as well although, again, if he got to the open market, how many teams would realistically go after him?  How many would have the cap space and of those, how many would pay up that much for a goalie?  I’m intrigued to see how that one’s going to play out.

2) I can’t say this for certain either way but it would surprise me if more than a handful of skaters would put too much weight on who the goalie is when signing in free agency.  I’d say that’s too position-specific.  Free agents probably assess rosters on a more macro level – does the player want to go to a contender?  Does he want to go to a team that is thinner at a specific position in the hopes of securing a bigger role (and ideally a bigger contract)?  A UFA goalie would pay attention to who the incumbent player is for obvious reasons but I doubt a lot of skaters put a high emphasis on who the goalies are specifically when they’re pondering teams.

3) Long-term, it’s hard to pick against Yaroslav Askarov.  There’s a reason why he was considered by some as the best goalie outside North America a couple of years ago.  He’s now on a team that could be positioning itself to contend in a few years.  If it’s a long-term play you’d be going for, he’s it.  If you need someone who might get you more points in the short term, it’s Jesper Wallstedt.  Like Askarov, he’ll see some NHL action this season but he’s on a team that I expect will be more competitive.  Next season, he should be a full-timer on a team that has some cap space to make some noise next summer.

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Nha Trang: What’s the team touted to be a top contender for the Cup that blows up completely this year?  I don’t mean a 55+ win team that bombs out of the first round, but one *expected* to be one that blows up in the regular season and just barely makes the playoffs at all, if that much.

It depends on the interpretation of top contender.  If we’re only talking about the obvious handful, I’m not sure I see any of them struggling to that extent.  (Technically, there was only one 55-win team last year.)  So, I’m going to expand the pool a bit and bring in the other 50-win teams from last season.

My pick of who is a presumed playoff contender that could wind up struggling a lot this year is Vancouver.  An awful lot went right last year.  They got several career seasons from their top players while leading the league in shooting percentage.  I think they’re bound for a bit of regression on that front.  Thatcher Demko seemingly not being 100% isn’t going to help either; if he has to manage the pain playing through his knee trouble, he probably can’t be counted on to play as much as he normally does.  There’s some give-back there as well.

Then there’s the division.  Vegas should bounce back after a down year by their standards and Los Angeles has what they think will be a goalie upgrade.  I know they’re without Doughty for a while but it wouldn’t shock me if they finished ahead of Vancouver.  Edmonton (who I imagine is a popular answer to this question for anyone pondering it themselves) should be ahead as well.  With that in mind, I have Vancouver as a Wild Card team at best, battling with Central teams to sneak in.  That would be a pretty big drop-off that I’m not sure a lot of people are necessarily predicting at this point.

If you want someone considered as more of a contender, it would be Colorado.  They’re dealing with a lot of injuries up front that might put them behind the proverbial eight-ball to start the year.  And if Alexandar Georgiev’s struggles between the pipes carry over (it has in his first two starts), they could be vulnerable.

Gmm8811: Any chance of seeing a deep dive article in the future on AHL and ECHL contracts? Do those leagues have 2-way contracts like the NHL? Do the minor leaguers have to pass through waivers like the big clubs? Is there a good site that deals with this kind of information? ECHL future expansion rumors?

Unfortunately, details on AHL and ECHL contracts are not publicly disclosed so there isn’t much we can cover or refer you to there.  There are two-way AHL-ECHL deals that pay different rates at each level similar to NHL-AHL agreements.  It feels like there has been an increase in those in recent years as teams use those for some of their recallable depth players to get around the strict ECHL weekly cap rules.  The weekly salary cap in that league this season is $15,130 per week for the first 30 days of the season and $14,600 per week after that with the weekly salary floor being $11,100.

As for waivers, that’s not a thing in the AHL like it is in the NHL but there is in the ECHL.  Players released by an ECHL team go on waivers and become eligible to be claimed.  Meanwhile, in the AHL, released players immediately become free agents.  If you’re on an AHL contract, you’re staying with that organization unless you’re traded, loaned, or released.  As for ECHL expansion, there isn’t a site that I’m aware of that tracks rumors about that.  That said, with 30 teams in that league, it stands to reason that they could try to get that to 32 in the near future and try to have an NHL and AHL affiliate for each one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals PHR Mailbag

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Injury Updates: Barkov, Woll, Peterka, Rust

October 12, 2024 at 7:20 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

7:00 PM : After originally being labeled a game-time decision, Penguins winger Bryan Rust has made his return to the lineup. It’s his season debut, returning him to his role on Sidney Crosby’s wing, where he recorded 28 goals and 56 points in 62 games last season.

2:00 PM : The lower-body injury to Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov won’t keep him out for long.  Head coach Paul Maurice told reporters including Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News (Twitter link) that the center is expected to miss two to three weeks and is expected to be ready to play by the time Florida heads overseas in early November for games in Barkov’s native Finland, if not before then.  That means he shouldn’t miss any more time relative to his original week-to-week designation.  The 29-year-old has been a high-end two-way top center for several seasons now and has put up at least 78 points in each of the last three seasons.  Harrington also noted that Florida winger Matthew Tkachuk won’t play tonight against Buffalo although his absence isn’t injury-related but rather due to illness.

Other injury news from around the NHL:

  • Maple Leafs goaltender Joseph Woll is progressing from his lower-body injury but still has not returned to the ice, relays Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link). The netminder was expected to get the start on Wednesday’s opener but was scratched earlier in the day, landing on IR retroactively to his last preseason appearance to make a roster spot for Dennis Hildeby.  Woll is entering his second full NHL season and posted a 2.97 GAA with a .904 SV% in 25 games last season and added a 0.86 GAA with a .963 SV% in three playoff appearances.
  • While the Sabres were hoping that winger J-J Peterka would be able to suit up tonight, the team announced that won’t be the case as he’ll miss his second straight game due to a concussion. However, head coach Lindy Ruff indicated that he’s hopeful Peterka will be able to suit up on Wednesday.
  • Penguins winger Bryan Rust is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game against Toronto, notes Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now. The veteran has been listed as day-to-day for the last couple of weeks with a lower-body injury, landing him on IR to start the season but he was a full participant in Pittsburgh’s morning skate.  Rust had 28 goals and 28 assists in 62 games for the Penguins last season.  The team has an open roster spot so they won’t have to send someone down if Rust is indeed cleared to play.

Buffalo Sabres| Florida Panthers| Injury| Pittsburgh Penguins| Toronto Maple Leafs Aleksander Barkov| Bryan Rust| J.J. Peterka| Joseph Woll| Matthew Tkachuk

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

October 12, 2024 at 4:03 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Capitals.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $98,665,965 (above the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Hendrix Lapierre (one year, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Lapierre: $445K

Lapierre spent the bulk of last season with Washington with some short stints with AHL Hershey mixed in.  Most of that time was in a bottom-six role, one he’s likely to have this season as well which means his bonuses are unlikely to be met, aside from possibly any games-played ones.  A bridge agreement should be the outcome for Lapierre who, if he stays in the bottom six for most of this season, could possibly double his current price tag next summer.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Alexander Alexeyev ($825K, RFA)
F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM, UFA)
D Ethan Bear ($2.0625MM, UFA)
D Jakob Chychrun ($4.6MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Andrew Mangiapane ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Dylan McIlrath ($775K, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM, UFA)
F Taylor Raddysh ($1MM, UFA)
G Logan Thompson ($766.7K, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($775K, UFA)

Let’s get Backstrom and Oshie out of the way together as they’re in the same situation.  Backstrom remains on LTIR where he was for most of last season while it’s unlikely that Oshie will be able to suit up this season either.  GM Chris Patrick’s early-offseason spending was a strong indicator that the team doesn’t believe Oshie will be cleared to play.

Mangiapane was one of the additions through that early spending.  After scoring 35 goals in 2021-22 (yielding this contract), he has just 31 in the two years since then although he has reached at least 40 points each time.  At this point, a small pay cut could be coming but if he can even get back to 30 goals with his new team, Mangiapane could push past $6MM next summer.

Dowd has gone from being a regular fourth liner a few years ago to a regular third liner, pushing past 20 points in three straight years now.  A center who can kill penalties, he’s in line to potentially add another million per season or so to that number, albeit on a short-term deal as he’ll be 35 next summer.   Raddysh was non-tendered this summer, resulting in him looking for a short-term rebound deal.  Only a year removed from a 20-goal campaign, he could double this next summer if he can get back to the 15-goal mark or so.  Vrana had to earn a deal the hard way through a PTO but landed one earlier this week.  After bouncing around a bit in recent years, it’s hard to see him commanding much more than the minimum unless he has a big season offensively.

Chychrun was brought in via an early July trade to help bolster the back end.  He doesn’t produce enough to be a high-end threat offensively but he has reached the double-digit goal mark in three of the last five years and reached the 40-point plateau last season as well.  If he stays in that range while continuing to play heavy minutes, his next deal could surpass $7MM on a long-term agreement.

Bear was a midseason signing last year that hasn’t panned out yet.  After exiting the Player Assistance Program over the offseason, he wound up not making the team and cleared waivers earlier this month.  He’ll carry a pro-rated $912.5K cap charge while with AHL Hershey and if he’s there all season, he’ll be looking at something closer to the minimum next summer.  Alexeyev has had a limited role so far in his NHL action, primarily playing part-time on the third pairing.  His qualifying offer checks in just below $920K with arbitration rights next summer but Washington won’t be able to afford that roster spot costing much more than that.  McIlrath, meanwhile, has primarily been in the minors in recent years and accordingly, his next deal should come in at or near the minimum salary again.

Lindgren was a late bloomer but since joining Washington two years ago, he has established himself as at least a capable NHL netminder.  Last season, he wrestled away the number one job from Darcy Kuemper which will only help his cause in negotiations.  Still, with a limited track record (just 110 career NHL appearances heading into the season), an early extension isn’t likely – both sides probably want to wait and see what happens – but if he has a similar year to this one, he should earn at least $3MM on a multi-year agreement next summer.  If it’s another year as a true starter, the recent five-year, $25MM contract given to Joey Daccord could come up in talks.

Thompson also has somewhat of a limited track record in terms of experience but is also a few years younger with better career numbers after three strong seasons in Vegas.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking if his camp is already eyeing something close to Daccord’s new deal if and when extension talks get underway.  The cheapest goalie in the NHL, Thompson’s next deal will certainly change that soon enough.

Signed Through 2025-26

D John Carlson ($8MM, UFA)
F Brandon Duhaime ($1.85MM, UFA)
D Martin Fehervary ($2.675MM, RFA)
F Connor McMichael ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Sonny Milano ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($3MM, UFA)

Ovechkin is one of the top scorers in NHL history and even with a very high AAV for most of his career, he has lived up to it.  That might be ending soon strictly from a bang-for-buck perspective.  The 39-year-old had the lowest full-season production of his career and players generally don’t have a resurgent year at that age.  That said, with all he has done for them and the chase for the all-time record, the Capitals won’t be too concerned if they’re not getting top value here.

McMichael received a bridge deal which was a pretty obvious outcome considering he spent most of 2022-23 in the minors.  But if he can stay in the top six regularly, he could double that next time out with arbitration eligibility and if it looks like he’s a core piece for the future by then, a long-term deal could push past $5MM.  Milano managed 15 goals in 49 games last season which isn’t bad production for that price tag but the book on him in recent years is that he can be effective only in a limited role.  That has hindered his market before and probably will next time out unless something changes over the next couple of years.  Duhaime is a crash-and-bang winger who only managed five goals last season, making this price tag seemingly a bit high for that role but perhaps a change of scenery will allow him to contribute a bit more offensively which would set him up to pass $2MM next time out.

While Carlson didn’t light up the scoresheet as much as he has in the past, he did reach the double-digit goal mark for the sixth time in the last seven years last season and logged a career high in ice time at nearly 26 minutes a night.  That type of playing time is unsustainable for a 34-year-old but he doesn’t need to play that much to justify this deal.  He remains an all-situations type of player which should give this contract a good chance to hold up value-wise over the final two seasons.  It’s not inconceivable that he lands a small raise next time out although the likelier outcome is more of a medium-term agreement that would allow the AAV to be a bit lower.

As for van Riemsdyk, he has found a home in Washington, going from being a player toward the end of the depth chart to spending a lot of time on the second pairing.  This price tag for someone in that role is good value.  He’ll be entering his age-35 year on his next contract so he might be hard-pressed to get much more than this in 2026.  Fehervary, meanwhile, is on his bridge deal and has similarly played a lot on the second pairing.  Given that he’s still 25, he could push past the $4MM mark if things go well, perhaps $5MM on a long-term pact.  His current deal is front-loaded, carrying just a $1.075MM qualifying offer two years from now.

Signed Through 2026-27

None

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Pierre-Luc Dubois ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
F Aliaksei Protas ($3.375MM through 2028-29)
D Matt Roy ($5.75MM through 2029-30)
D Rasmus Sandin ($4.6MM through 2028-29)
F Dylan Strome ($5MM through 2030-31)
F Tom Wilson ($6.5MM through 2030-31)

Washington surprised many by taking a swing on Dubois who had a tough year with Los Angeles in the first season of that agreement.  It’s a contract that looked to be above-market from the moment it was signed but the hope that he could become a consistent top-two center with size is tantalizing and likely led to the move.  It could work out or it could become a big anchor on their books.  It was a high-risk, high-reward play.  The same can’t be said for Wilson.  Power forwards get above-market contracts and this is certainly that, especially for someone who is starting a seven-year deal at 30.  There’s a lot of risk in this move and the reward potential isn’t particularly high unless he can get back to being at least a 20-goal scorer.

It took Strome a while to establish himself as a reliable top-six forward but he has done just that since joining the Capitals.  This contract looked a bit risky when it was signed as it was coming off just one strong season but now, after slightly besting those numbers last season, it might hold up as one of their better deals in a hurry.  Protas’ pact was a bit surprising given that he has just 13 career goals in 169 games but he took a step forward offensively last season and has the size to make an impact.  It’s a bit of a leap of faith but even if he stays around the 30-point mark (which he nearly reached last year), they’ll do fine with this contract.

Roy was Washington’s big splash in free agency to help shore up the back end.  He’s someone who flew under the radar a bit in Los Angeles but now with a pricey contract to play top-pairing minutes most nights, that should change.  He’s no longer a bargain as he was the last couple of years but this is a good deal for a number two defender as long as he can have success in that role with the Caps.  Sandin’s contract is one where it will serve as a bit of an overpayment at the beginning with the hope that it will flip to a club-friendly agreement within a year or two.  The addition of Chychrun seems likely to limit his playing time which could keep this contract on the pricey side for a little while longer but eventually, he should get back to playing in a top-four role.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None – they retained $3.9MM on Evgeny Kuznetsov’s deal in last season’s trade with Carolina but that came off the books when he agreed to mutually terminate the agreement with the Hurricanes this past offseason.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Thompson
Worst Value: Dubois

Looking Ahead

Having over $14MM on LTIR gives the Capitals a cushion to work with even though they’re well over the salary cap.  As things stand, they’re around $3.8MM below their revised spending ceiling.  Notably, that doesn’t get larger as the season progresses so they have that much now or at the trade deadline if their roster stays as is.  Still, that gives them ample insurance against injuries and if they’re in mix for the stretch run, they should have an opportunity to add a piece.

Looking to next season, they have $62.75MM in commitments, giving Patrick some room to work with.  However, a good chunk of that will go toward re-signing their goalies, a new deal for Chychrun, and either re-signing or replacing Mangiapane, a top-six forward.  Still, they’re not in too bad of shape.  Ovechkin and Carlson are up the following summer, opening up more flexibility although the concern of Dubois and Wilson’s deals potentially not aging well will linger.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024| Washington Capitals

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Senators Looking To Add Defensive Depth

October 12, 2024 at 3:02 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

This early in the season, most teams will be looking to hold off on making any moves of significance, wanting to see what they have over the first month or two.  Accordingly, a lot will be focusing on their depth situation if the opportunity presents itself to do something.

It appears that the Senators are a team that wants to add to their depth before too long.  Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that GM Steve Staios has been looking around the market for a depth blueliner.  While they gave some consideration to some of the players waived at the beginning of the week, they opted not to claim one, presumably feeling that they can swing a move to get one.

Ottawa’s top four on the back end is well-established.  Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub have been around for several years, Jake Sanderson is still in the early stages of his career but projects to be a fixture for years to come, and Nick Jensen was acquired from Washington in the Jakob Chychrun trade.  Barring injury, that part of the blueline is set.

Beyond that, however, things get a little murkier.  On opening night, veteran Travis Hamonic and Tyler Kleven – who has just 18 games of NHL experience – comprised the bottom pairing.  Jacob Bernard-Docker, who cleared waivers at this time last year, was the spare defender but notably did play in 72 games for the Sens last season after an early-season recall.  Kleven and Bernard-Docker both have some promise but are relatively unproven still while Hamonic has seen his effectiveness slide in recent years.  That section of the back end can be improved upon as a result.

However, one thing Staios will have to be mindful of is the salary cap.  The team currently has less than $900K in cap space per PuckPedia.  While that’s enough to afford to add a depth blueliner, it would effectively cap them out unless one of the other blueliners came off the roster.  Kleven is waiver-exempt while Bernard-Docker and Hamonic aren’t; Hamonic also has no-move protection which takes waivers off the table.  Can Ottawa find an upgrade that would allow them to send Kleven down or risk losing Bernard-Docker on the wire?  It appears that’s what they’re looking to find out.

Ottawa Senators

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Sharks Recall Jack Thompson, Place Macklin Celebrini On IR

October 12, 2024 at 12:13 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

After a strong NHL debut, Sharks center Macklin Celebrini will have to wait a week for his second appearance.  The team announced today (Twitter link) that he has been placed on injured reserve; defenseman Jack Thompson was recalled from AHL San Jose to take his place on the roster.

Celebrini was the top pick in the draft back in June and after taking some time to think about his plans for this season, decided to forego the rest of his college eligibility and turn pro.  He didn’t see much preseason action playing just twice out of six games but that didn’t stop him from having a strong debut, one that saw him record two points.

Part of the reason he didn’t see much action in the exhibition season was that he was dealing with a nagging lower-body issue during training camp.  He’s now once again dealing with a lower-body injury, one that might be related to what he was going through in recent weeks.  With how early it is in the season, it makes sense to give Celebrini some rest now to try to eliminate the problem completely over having him play at less than full health.

As for Thompson, the 22-year-old is in the final year of his entry-level contract and is in his first full year with the Sharks after he was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline.  He got into three NHL appearances between the two squads last season and added 41 points in 62 AHL appearances.

While it might seem strange that a defenseman was brought up to replace a forward, San Jose had only been carrying six healthy blueliners on their active roster with Shakir Mukhamadullin and Marc-Edouard Vlasic both injured.  Thompson will now give them a bit of insurance on the back end while the Sharks still have 14 available forwards on their roster.

AHL| Injury| San Jose Sharks| Transactions Jack Thompson| Macklin Celebrini

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East Notes: Liljegren, Shesterkin, Volokhin, Brandsegg-Nygard

October 12, 2024 at 11:39 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

While there has been some trade speculation surrounding Maple Leafs defenseman Timothy Liljegren, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that there is no imminent move on the horizon.  Toronto is currently carrying eight blueliners while also having offseason additions Jani Hakanpaa and Dakota Mermis on LTIR so their depth is in decent shape, something Dreger notes Toronto likes.  However, while having strong depth is one thing, having a healthy scratch making $3MM through next season isn’t ideal.  Still just 25, Liljegren has nearly 200 career NHL regular season games under his belt and is coming off a season that saw him collect 23 points in 55 games while logging nearly 20 minutes a night.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some trade interest in him in the coming weeks, especially if a team gets hit with some injuries on the back end.  If not, they may still need to make a move in a few weeks as some of their injured players potentially return.

More from the Atlantic:

  • On the heels of Igor Shesterkin declining an eight-year, $88MM extension offer from the Rangers, Larry Brooks of the New York Post suggests that the goaltender is asking for $12MM per season. Recognizing the team might not go that high, the 28-year-old wants to be the highest-paid player on the team which means he might decline anything below the $11.643MM AAV that Artemi Panarin has on his deal.  Shesterkin has a career 2.42 GAA and a .921 SV% in 214 games at the NHL level and will soon be the highest-paid goalie in league history with the offer he declined already coming in higher than Carey Price’s $10.5MM per season.
  • Canadiens goaltending prospect Yevgeni Volokhin has been loaned to HK Sochi, per an announcement from the KHL club. SKA St. Petersburg acquired his rights earlier this week but will let the 19-year-old get his feet wet at the top Russian level elsewhere for the time being.  Montreal drafted Volokhin in the fifth round in 2023, going 144th overall.  He was one of the top netminders at their junior level last season, posting a 1.57 GAA with a .938 SV% in 31 games with Mamonty Yugry and has similar numbers (1.95 and .931 respectively) in eight appearances at the MHL level this year.
  • The Red Wings wanted to assign prospect Michael Brandsegg-Nygard to AHL Grand Rapids but the first rounder and his camp insisted on him being assigned back to Sweden, relays Norren’s Robin Lindgren (Twitter link). The 19-year-old spent last season with Mora in the second-tier Allsvenskan level where he had 18 points in 41 games but his rights are now held by SHL Skelleftea.  It’s believed that Brandsegg-Nygard feels that playing at the top level in Sweden will be better for his development than suiting up for the Griffins in the minors.

AHL| Detroit Red Wings| KHL| Montreal Canadiens| New York Rangers| SHL| Toronto Maple Leafs Igor Shesterkin| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård| Timothy Liljegren| Yevgeni Volokhin

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Avalanche Recall Chris Wagner

October 12, 2024 at 10:33 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

On the heels of the Jonathan Drouin injury, Colorado was down to just 11 healthy forwards on their active roster, making a pending roster move quite likely.  That move was made today as the team announced (Twitter link) that Chris Wagner has been recalled from AHL Colorado.

The 33-year-old passed through waivers unclaimed last weekend but technically made the Avalanche’s season-opening roster.  His presence there was primarily for salary cap optimization purposes, however, and he was sent to the Eagles on Wednesday.

Last season, Wagner primarily played at the AHL level, notching eight goals and six assists in 21 games.  He also got into 13 games with the big club, picking up a goal and an assist along with 30 hits but averaged just 7:27 in playing time.  For his career, Wagner has 38 goals and 27 assists in 373 NHL appearances over parts of ten seasons.

Colorado has a full 23-player roster so a corresponding move needs to be made.  That will likely be Drouin landing on IR as he has already been ruled out for the next two games and is expected to be re-evaluated early next week.  Cap-wise, this won’t be an issue for the Avs who are well into LTIR with Gabriel Landeskog and Tucker Poolman currently on there.

AHL| Colorado Avalanche| Transactions Chris Wagner

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Central Notes: Rantanen, Drouin, Texier, Bourque

October 11, 2024 at 9:01 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

We’ve seen some prominent unrestricted free agents sign early extensions over the past few months.  One that some expected to do so is Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen but an agreement isn’t in place yet.  In the latest TSN Insider Trading segment, Pierre LeBrun relayed that there appears to still be a gap to be bridged between the two sides with Colorado potentially using Mikko Rantanen’s $12.6MM AAV as an internal cap on an offer.  Rantanen – who kicked off his platform year with a hat-trick – has surpassed the 100-point mark in two straight years, putting him in line for a sizable raise on his current $9.25MM AAV; it’s possible that he breaks the record for the highest AAV for a winger (Rangers winger Artemi Panarin holds it with a $11.643MM cap charge).

More from the Central Division:

  • Still with the Avalanche, head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including Evan Rawal of The Denver Gazette that winger Jonathan Drouin will miss at least the next two games with an upper-body injury. It’s another tough blow for a Colorado winger group that’s currently without Valeri Nichushkin, Gabriel Landeskog, and Artturi Lehkonen.  The 29-year-old had a career-high 56 points last season and logged more than 21 minutes in their season opener and will be re-assessed early next week to determine how much more time he might miss.
  • The Blues announced (Twitter link) that winger Alexandre Texier is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Louis acquired the 25-year-old in the offseason from Columbus after he put up a career-best 30 points in 78 games and quickly signed him to a two-year, $4.2MM contract.  Texier had an assist in their season-opening victory over Seattle but missed Thursday’s win over San Jose.
  • The Stars are hoping that winger Mavrik Bourque will be able to suit up in one of their games this weekend, relays Lia Assimakopoulos of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). The 22-year-old is dealing with a lower-body injury but did skate today.  Bourque was the top scorer in the AHL last season, notching 26 goals and 51 assists in 71 games while also suiting up twice for Dallas, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs.

Colorado Avalanche| Dallas Stars| St. Louis Blues Alexandre Texier| Jonathan Drouin| Mavrik Bourque| Mikko Rantanen

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Minor Transactions: 10/11/24

October 11, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

With the AHL season getting underway tonight, we’ve seen a few minor moves made today as teams get their rosters in place.  Here’s a rundown of those transactions.

  • The Predators have returned goaltender Matt Murray to AHL Milwaukee, relays Alex Daugherty of The Tennessean (Twitter link). The 26-year-old was recalled on Wednesday with Juuse Saros listed as day-to-day so it appears that Saros should be good to at least dress as the backup on Saturday against Detroit.  Murray had a 3.02 GAA with a .896 SV% in 31 games in the minors last season and signed a one-year, two-way deal with Nashville this past summer.
  • The Oilers announced (Twitter link) that forward Carl Berglund has been assigned to AHL Bakersfield. The 24-year-old was injured to start the regular season and therefore couldn’t be sent down until being cleared to play.  As he didn’t spend any time on an NHL roster last season, Edmonton didn’t have any cap charge while he was up with them.  Berglund had 42 points in 51 ECHL appearances in 2023-24 while adding four points in a dozen games with AHL Bakersfield.
  • ECHL Cincinnati, an affiliate of the Maple Leafs, recently announced a pair of signings with NHL experience in goaltender Jon Gillies and defenseman Nikolai Knyzhov. Gillies didn’t play at all last season but has 35 NHL games and 184 AHL appearances under his belt; he was in training camp with Toronto.  Knyzhov, meanwhile, requested and was granted his release by San Jose in late June, walking away from a guaranteed $1.4MM salary in the process.  He was in camp with Pittsburgh and AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton but was cut both times.  The 26-year-old played in 10 games with the Sharks last season and 40 more with AHL San Jose but will now look to work his way back up from a lower level.

AHL| ECHL| Edmonton Oilers| Nashville Predators| Transactions Carl Berglund| Jon Gillies| Matt Murray (b. 1998)| Nikolai Knyzhov

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