Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at St. Louis.
While the Blues managed to secure the final playoff spot in the West Division, it was a bit of a tough year for them. On paper, the roster was good enough to be a threat but it didn’t materialize into much success and they were swept by Colorado in the opening round. With a lot of money coming off the books this summer, GM Doug Armstrong will have an opportunity to reshape his team (or keep most of it intact if he prefers that option). Here is a look at what will be on his to-do list this summer.
Berube Decision
While we saw several teams go with a coach in the final year of their contract, that isn’t always the case as some teams want to at least get a small extension in place to avoid any potential for distraction. Head coach Craig Berube will be in the final season of the three-year deal he signed after having the interim tag removed following their Stanley Cup victory in 2019.
Armstrong will need to decide if he’s comfortable with Berube being the head coach beyond next season and if so, they may as well try to work a deal out now. Or, if he’s uncertain about if he is the ideal long-term fit (two first-round exits could raise some questions on that front), he will need to decide if he’s comfortable starting the season with Berube on the final year of his deal. With several teams doing that this year, it will be easier to justify that option if Armstrong decides to wait a little longer before making that call.
Re-Sign Or Replace Schwartz
Jaden Schwartz has been a regular in St. Louis’ lineup for the better part of a decade now. He certainly has battled injuries at times but he has five seasons of 55 or more points under his belt and is a valuable part of their top-six. The 28-year-old is set to hit the open market for the first time this summer and his case should be one of the more interesting ones around the league.
2020-21 was not a good season at all for Schwartz. He had just eight goals and 13 assists in 40 games this season, per-game rates that were only higher than his rookie season when he was only playing a dozen minutes a night in a limited role. That certainly doesn’t provide a great case for a raise. However, three of those 55-point or more campaigns came in three of the four previous years so there is definitely some track record of recent success.
A couple of years ago, Schwartz would have been in line for a long-term deal around his $5.35MM cap hit that he had this season and probably a little bit higher. However, the UFA market was tough on most wingers last fall and with teams in a similar cap crunch now, it seems likely that this will be the case again this summer. All of a sudden, there’s a definite possibility that Schwartz is facing a reduction in pay.
If they’re unable to come to terms on a new deal, Armstrong could pivot to someone like Mike Hoffman, another Blues UFA. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep both but if Schwartz decides to move on, they could have his replacement in-house already.
Dunn Deal
Vince Dunn is no stranger to trade speculation. The 24-year-old has basically been there for a couple of years now to the point where it was well-known early in the season that he was available. While his point total went down last season (not just due to the pandemic), he did very quietly turn things around on that front, collecting 20 points in 43 games this year, numbers that if extrapolated over an 82-game season, would have been the best of his young career.
How things got to this point is certainly a little odd. While he isn’t the best in his own zone, he’s a strong skater and puck-mover, elements that are more important from the back end now and he even stepped into more of a top-four role this season. On the surface, it would seem like he’s the type of player that should be a core piece, not a trade chip for basically half of his NHL career.
It also should be noted that expansion could be playing a role here. Colton Parayko is a lock to be protected (and is someone that the Blues undoubtedly will be talking about an extension with when he’s eligible to sign one in late July) as is Torey Krug. If they’re only protecting three, that last spot will be Dunn, Justin Faulk (who had a nice bounce-back season after a tough first year in St. Louis), and Marco Scandella. If Armstrong would rather protect one of the latter two, it makes more sense to find a trade taker for Dunn before protection lists are due.
Even if they don’t do the trade route, there’s still work to be done for Dunn as he is once again a restricted free agent, this time with salary arbitration. Last time, the Blues held the cards as they had limited cap space and Dunn didn’t have the ability to file for a hearing and they were able to get an affordable one-year deal out of it. This time around, Dunn will be well-positioned for a sizable raise although it remains to be seen which team will be the one giving it to him.
Add A Veteran Goaltender
For several years, Ville Husso was viewed as the goalie of the future for the Blues and was even ahead of Jordan Binnington on the organizational depth chart at one point (which has clearly changed since then). With Jake Allen being traded to Montreal in a cap-saving move last year, Husso finally had an opportunity to be the backup goaltender.
However, it didn’t go particularly well. The 26-year-old posted a save percentage of just .893 with a GAA of 3.20 in 17 games this season, numbers that didn’t reach the league average on both fronts. It’s certainly possible that he can improve – he has had some very strong seasons in the minors – but it would be risky to have him as the uncontested backup heading into next season as well.
Part of the allure in having Husso as the backup is a cap hit that will be at the league minimum next year which frees up money to spend elsewhere. Bringing in a more proven option could cost another couple of million and with over $66MM committed already and a few notable players needing new deals, it could be a tight squeeze to manage. If it’s one they can’t afford in their salary structure, then at least bringing in a veteran that could start in the minors but could push for playing time would be a reasonable backup plan. It could be a small addition that goes under the radar but would still be a useful one.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Zach Trotman Announces His Retirement
Penguins defenseman Zach Trotman has decided to call it a career and has announced his retirement, per an announcement on his Instagram page. He was set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
The 30-year-old spent the past four seasons with Pittsburgh in a depth role, seeing NHL action in his first three seasons with the team. However, injuries (including a torn meniscus in training camp) limited him to just eight appearances with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in 2020-21 and in Trotman’s announcement, he cited injuries as the reason for him hanging up his skates.
Trotman had a good career for someone that was drafted at the back of the seventh round in 2010 (210th overall) by Boston, playing under an NHL contract for nine seasons while making a little over $3.5MM in the process, per CapFriendly. He ends his playing days with 91 career games played at the top level where he had 13 points while averaging just under 17 minutes a game in playing time.
Offseason Checklist: New York Rangers
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Rangers.
A year ago, it looked as if the rebuild for the Rangers was basically over or had at least been expedited. Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba were added and a strong performance down the stretch provided optimism for the future before Carolina swept them in the Qualifying Round in the bubble. Even so, there was plenty of optimism heading into the season but the results weren’t there. The result was a house cleaning with Chris Drury taking over as GM and Gerard Gallant recently being named head coach. While those are big items off their checklist, there is still some work to be done.
Round Out Coaching Staff
While they have Gallant in the fold, the coaching staff still needs some work. Goalie coach Benoit Allaire was retained and, well, that’s it for the current staff. David Oliver, Jacques Martin, and Greg Brown were also all let go when David Quinn was fired last month and will need to be replaced. Kris Knoblauch could be a candidate to join the staff on a full-time basis; the AHL Hartford bench boss filled in for six games for Quinn this season while he was in COVID-19 protocols.
Center Decisions
New York appears to be set between the pipes for the foreseeable future. They have several young blueliners in the pipeline, headlined by K’Andre Miller who had a strong rookie season. They’re well-set on the wings with Panarin plus recent high first-round picks in Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko; Chris Kreider is also signed long-term.
The pipeline isn’t anywhere near as well-stocked when it comes to the center position, however. Filip Chytil showed some progression this season but at this point, he looks more like a third-line option than a top-six piece of the future. Brett Howden was a first-rounder back in 2016 but is going to be more of a role player than a core one. Morgan Barron certainly has some upside but they’re certainly not ready to proclaim him as a top-six center of the future either. It’s an area that needs to be addressed and it’s a big one.
It’s not something that necessarily has to be addressed this year but the clock is ticking. Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, their current top pivots, are both a year away from unrestricted free agency with Zibanejad looking like a candidate to land a considerable raise on his current $5.35MM AAV. Strome, meanwhile, has 108 points in 126 games over the last two seasons. While he has an earned reputation of being inconsistent, that’s still an impressive recent track record and if he has another year like that, he will also be looking at a raise on his $4.5MM price tag.
It seems likely that Drury will at least investigate the cost of signing Zibanejad to a long-term extension while Strome’s file may be left a little longer to see how next year starts out. However, if they wind up landing a top-line pivot, that player is going to be expensive. As their youngsters move past their entry-level deals, can they afford to pay Zibanejad market value to play on their second line? It’d be a great luxury to have but in this cap environment, it might be one that they can’t afford.
In the meantime, expect the Rangers to be speculatively linked to every impact center that happens to become available (such as Buffalo’s Jack Eichel). The supporting cast is in place and this is the one key piece they need to take another step forward. With their group of young roster players, they will also be in a position where they could move one or two of those in a move and still be in good shape. Of course, that’s the easy part of the equation. Finding the impact center is the much more challenging one with that task now falling to Drury.
Re-Sign Key RFAs
There are several restricted free agents that Drury will need to re-sign but two stand out among the pack for very different reasons.
The first is goaltender Igor Shesterkin. His entry-level contract has come to an end and he has quickly established himself as New York’s starter. Having said that, he has all of 47 career NHL games under his belt which is less than a single season’s worth for most number ones. That’s not a particularly large sample size and his standout KHL numbers don’t mean a whole lot in terms of impacting contract talks.
On top of that, he’s 25 and has salary arbitration eligibility. With Shesterkin only being two years away from UFA eligibility, it’s not an ideal spot for a bridge contract; while most players coming off their first contracts have four years of team control remaining, New York has half of that. Meanwhile, if early talks don’t go well, Shesterkin could simply file for arbitration, return as the starter, and then be a year away from being unrestricted next summer where he’ll have even more leverage in talks. A long-term deal is almost certainly New York’s goal but it may be tricky to come by.
The other RFA of note is Pavel Buchnevich. Over his first few years in the league, he showed some offensive flashes but struggled at times as well. However, in 2019-20, the combination of him, Zibanejad, and Kreider broke out and Buchnevich responded with a career year with 46 points in 68 games. He then did even better this season with 48 points in just 54 contests. That’s top line production which is certain to be mentioned in contract talks as the 26-year-old goes through restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility for the final time. He will undoubtedly get more than his $3.5MM qualifying offer but at the same time, are the Rangers prepared to commit to him long term or could he be deemed expendable knowing that Lafreniere and Kakko are in the wings? The contract is one thing while who gives it to him could very well be another question altogether.
Part Ways With DeAngelo
While he was dismissed from the team early in the season, New York had to carry Anthony DeAngelo on the salary cap for the rest of the season (minus the pro-rated $1.075MM in savings after he cleared waivers and was sent to the taxi squad). He has one year left on his contract, one that carries a $4.8MM AAV along with a $5.3MM salary. Drury may first try to find a taker in a trade first in a swap of expiring contracts but with how cheap his buyout would be, they shouldn’t look too closely at that option. Since DeAngelo is 25, the buyout ratio is one-third instead of two-thirds. Accordingly, the cap charge would only be $383K next season and $883K after that. DeAngelo turned down a contract termination at the trade deadline but it’s all but a lock that he’ll be released this summer when the buyout window opens up after the Stanley Cup Final.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Sharks Forward Fredrik Handemark Signs In The KHL
It will be a one and done term in North America for Sharks winger Fredrik Handemark. The pending unrestricted free agent has decided to not try his hand in NHL free agency and will head back overseas. He won’t be returning to the SHL, however, as SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL announced that they’ve signed Handemark to a two-year deal.
The 27-year-old joined San Jose a little over a year ago, inking a one-year, entry-level contract in May 2020. It took a while for him to get his first taste of North American hockey though due to the delayed start to the pandemic. Handemark made the most of that time, returning to Malmo on loan and recorded 15 points in 25 games before being recalled.
Handemark made frequent appearances in our Taxi Squad Shuffle posts this season as he was involved in 25 separate transactions over the span of four months. Despite that, he still got into 14 AHL games where he had four goals and four assists plus eight NHL contests with the Sharks where he collected a goal while averaging 9:27 per night of ice time.
That’s not the type of production that would allow him to command a one-way deal on the open market so instead of seeking out a two-way pact, Handemark will now join one of the top KHL franchises. If he plays a big role there, perhaps he will be able to get another NHL opportunity when his deal is up in 2023.
Rod Brind’Amour Wins 2020-21 Jack Adams Award
It’s a good day for Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour. Just hours after finalizing a new three-year contract to stay with Carolina, the NHL announced that he has won the 2021 Jack Adams Award, given to the coach of the year as voted by members of the NHL Broadcasters’ Association. He is the first coach in Hurricanes/Whalers history to win the award and the third to be a finalist for the position.
After seven years as an assistant, Brind’Amour was promoted to head coach back in May of 2018 and he has done quite well in the three years since then. Over that stretch, Carolina has a 120-66-20 record, good for a .631 points percentage which is the best in franchise history. Meanwhile, their special teams this season were dominant with top-three finishes on both the power play (25.6%) and penalty kill (85.2%), another franchise first. That helped lead them to 80 points this season, good enough for first in the Central Division and third in the league to Colorado and Vegas.
Minnesota’s Dean Evason finished second in voting while Florida’s Joel Quenneville came in just behind Evason for third. However, Brind’Amour had nearly half of the first place votes (61/127) so the race was not particularly close. Adam Vingan of The Athletic (Twitter link) provides the full voting results.
Carl Soderberg Signs In Sweden
Carl Soderberg’s time in the NHL has come to an end. Rather than take another run at the free agent market next month, the veteran has decided to head back home as Malmo of the SHL announced that they’ve signed Soderberg to a two-year contract.
Soderberg was one of the top-scoring centers in free agency in the fall after a 35-point campaign with Arizona (and 49 the year before with Colorado). However, interest was limited and it took until just before training camps began for him to land a one-year, $1MM contract with Chicago.
The 35-year-old managed to put up a respectable seven goals and eight assists in 34 games with the Blackhawks before he was traded to the Avalanche as extra depth for their playoff push. He wound up having a limited role with them down the stretch, notching just two assists in 11 games and was a frequent healthy scratch in the playoffs although he did manage a goal and two helpers in his four contests.
That type of end to his season wouldn’t have helped his free agent market so rather than sit waiting for an opportunity to come up, Soderberg will instead return to his hometown team, getting himself a two-year guarantee in the process. His NHL time wraps up with 110 goals and 187 assists in 597 career regular season games. Not a bad run at all for someone who is legally blind in his left eye.
Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison. The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott
Defense:
Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev
Goalies:
Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith
Notable Exemptions
G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand
Key Decisions
There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them. Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.
Let’s look at their defense first. Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it. McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs. He’s a big part of the puzzle. However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV. With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?
That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme. Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four. He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.
Then there’s Foote. He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017. He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract. Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.
That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well. Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.
Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde. The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM. That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.
Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected. His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap. But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.
Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze. He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark. At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal. But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.
Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson. Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either. It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides. He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest. But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit. The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.
Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme. Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL. Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year. Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year. They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to. Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.
Projected Protection List
F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)
D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta
In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer. This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected. Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Otto Leskinen And Kalle Kossila Sign In KHL
A pair of pending free agents have decided to not wait to test NHL free agency and have instead opted to sign overseas. Jokerit of the KHL announced today that they’ve signed defenseman Otto Leskinen and center Kalle Kossila to two-year contracts.
Leskinen signed with Montreal as an undrafted free agent back in 2019 and has spent the majority of his two seasons with them at the AHL level, only getting into six NHL games along the way. However, the 24-year-old had 17 points in just 33 games with Laval which was enough to earn a recall to their reserve squad for the playoffs. The Canadiens will be able to retain his NHL rights with a qualifying offer and considering that Leskinen won’t be UFA-eligible until 2024 (a year after this contract expires), they likely will do so.
As for Kossila, he last saw NHL action back in 2018-19 when he was with Anaheim and he has 19 career NHL contests under his belt. While he hasn’t been able to lock down an NHL job, the 28-year-old has been quite productive in the minors which was enough to earn a two-year deal from Toronto back in 2020 with this season being a one-way deal. While he led the Marlies in scoring this season, he may not have been able to command another one-way deal so he’ll instead try his hand back home with Finland’s lone KHL squad. He was set to be an unrestricted free agent late next month.
Oskar Lindblom Wins 2020-21 Bill Masterton Trophy
Over the next couple of weeks, the NHL will be revealing some of their award winners during the pregame show or intermission of games in the semifinals. Today was the Bill Masterton Trophy, awarded annually to the NHL player who “best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey”. This year’s recipient is Flyers winger Oskar Lindblom.
Lindblom was diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer, back in December 2019, causing him to miss the rest of the regular season. However, with the pandemic delaying the playoffs until the summer, he was able to get into a couple of games in the bubble while he was a finalist for the Masterton as well. This season, the 24-year-old played in all but six of Philadelphia’s 56 games this season, recording 14 points while averaging a little over 13 minutes per game. More importantly, he was ruled cancer-free at the one-year anniversary of his diagnosis.
Lindblom is the fourth Flyer to win the award, joining Bobby Clarke (1972), Tim Kerr (1989), and Ian Laperriere (2011) as Philadelphia recipients.
The other two finalists for the award were San Jose’s Patrick Marleau who became the all-time games played leader and Minnesota’s Mathew Dumba, a co-founder of the Hockey Diversity Alliance.
Offseason Checklist: Dallas Stars
The offseason has arrived with roughly half of the league missing the playoffs and several more having since been eliminated. It’s time to examine what those teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Dallas.
Just one season removed from an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, the Stars wound up missing the playoffs altogether in 2020-21. Injuries from their run in the bubble certainly contributed to that although they also had several veterans that underachieved. Nevertheless, with Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin returning next season, Dallas will be adding a pair of important pieces back to their lineup without needing to make many moves. However, there are still some items for GM Jim Nill to accomplish this summer.
Add Scoring Winger
With Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz, and Radek Faksa, Dallas is pretty well set down the middle for next season. At least one of them will have to move to the wing and while it may have seemed like it was going to be Benn, it doesn’t appear as if he will be the one doing so.
The Stars also have Alexander Radulov and Jason Robertson and on paper, it’s the makings of a pretty good offense. However, despite the collection of talented threats, they’re typically a middle of the pack team when it comes to scoring. And despite paying Benn and Seguin more than $19MM combined, they’re more of a score by committee type of team.
With Andrew Cogliano and Blake Comeau coming off the books, they have $5.65MM in money that could be put towards potentially adding another top-six piece on the wing that will score more than the nine goals those two veterans combined for this season. (Some of that will also go to their top RFA who will be covered momentarily.) That coupled with a return to health for Seguin and Radulov should be enough to push them from a team that’s a bit below average offensively to one that’s a bit above average. That should be worth a few more wins in the standings.
Re-Sign Heiskanen
Generally, a 21-year-old defenseman that averages basically half a point per game, has positive possession stats, and logs nearly 25 minutes a night would be viewed as having a great season. Yet for Miro Heiskanen, it almost felt like a bit of a letdown considering how dominant he was in the bubble. By no means was it a bad season – he played quite well – but the expectations were understandably so high that he underachieved a little bit.
It will be interesting to see if that affects Heiskanen’s contract talks as he enters restricted free agency for the first time (he does not have salary arbitration eligibility). Heading into the year, it felt like he was on a path to earn a max-term eight-year extension that bought out four UFA seasons but still gave him a shot at reaching the open market while being in the prime of his career.
That could ultimately still happen but his step back offensively poses some questions. Was his performance in the bubble an aberration? Was his dip this season a one-off or a sign of things to come? From Heiskanen’s point of view, if he believes he can get back to improving on his numbers in his first couple of seasons, he may be better off waiting a year or two and opting for a bridge deal. While it would take away some earning power when he reaches UFA eligibility, he’d certainly earn more signing a long-term deal then than he would now with this cap environment.
Meanwhile, Nill should still want to push for as long of a contract as possible. Even with him not quite living up to the very lofty expectations, he is still undoubtedly their franchise blueliner for years to come so if the opportunity presents itself to lock him up, it’s one they need to take.
If they wind up on a short-term pact instead, they’ll have a bit more flexibility to add a short-term win now piece as well but that’s basically only if they can get something done before the UFA period as it’s harder to add closer to the start of training camp. There is technically plenty of time to get a deal done between now and the start of next season but if they can get something done in the next six weeks, they’ll be better off for it.
Extension Talks For Klingberg
On top of working on Heiskanen’s file, the Stars will also be eligible to sign John Klingberg to an extension once the calendar flips to the 21-22 campaign in late July. The 28-year-old has been a fixture on their back end for the past seven years and their gamble in handing him a seven-year contract after his rookie season has panned out better than they could have hoped. Klingberg has given them plenty of production at a $4.25MM price tag which has wound up being well below market value.
He will be 30 when his next contract begins which presents Klingberg with a tough decision to make. Locking into a long-term deal now (or next summer with the cap likely still at $81.5MM) isn’t going to give him a higher AAV than if he waits. However, if he opted for a higher-priced, short-term contract extension, he’d then be too old to command a contract close to the maximum term when that deal came to an end. What’s better for him, locking in long-term and potentially leaving a bit of money on the table or bank on a cap increase over the next few years and the possibility for a slightly better payday?
In terms of cap planning, it shouldn’t be an issue for Dallas as Radulov and Pavelski ($13.25MM combined) will be coming off the books at the same time. Those veterans shouldn’t be able to command the same price tags they have now so some of the savings there will be able to go to Klingberg. With him having another year left, this isn’t something that has to get done but Nill has already indicated he’d like to work on this file this summer.
Add Defensive Upgrades
Between Heiskanen, Klingberg, and Esa Lindell, Dallas has a strong top half defensively. It falls off fairly quickly after that, however. Jamie Oleksiak is set to hit the open market this summer and after hovering around the 15 minute per game mark the previous two seasons, he logged over 20 minutes a night this year. Some of that was him stepping up but some of that was also out of necessity. Either way, he has positioned himself to earn more than the $2.1375MM he made this season so he’ll need to be brought back or replaced.
In terms of depth, Andrej Sekera is more of a sixth option at this point while Joel Hanley should be seventh or eighth on the depth chart. Sami Vatanen and Mark Pysyk don’t seem likely to return so this could be an opportunity for Nill to upgrade the third pairing. If they’re unable to bring in another top-four defender, raising the floor of that third pair will be needed, especially if they want to hedge against injuries. Thomas Harley could be in the mix at some point next year which would help but he’ll need some more time in the minors first and shouldn’t be counted on to make an immediate impact.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.