Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
St. Louis Blues
Current Cap Hit: $79,968,849 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($788K, RFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($725K, RFA)
Some players just fit on a certain team and that appears to be the case for Perron who has vastly outperformed his contract in this, his third go-around with the organization. He cracked the point per game mark last season for the first time in his career and a repeat performance would set him up for a considerable raise if he opted to test free agency. Given that he has already come back twice though, it’s also understandable to think that he may take a little less to stay where he’s comfortable. Sanford has been a capable depth scorer the last few seasons and after seeing that market bounce back a bit for unrestricted free agents this summer, he should be able to land a small raise. If they have to spend more to retain Perron though, some of that money may come from Sanford’s expiring deal. Clifford had a limited role last season and a similar showing will have him looking at playing for the minimum salary in 2022-23. MacEachern has been a depth piece and will need to establish himself as a regular to have a shot at a nominal raise moving forward; his spot will likely need to go to someone making the minimum beyond this season.
Bortuzzo has had a limited role the last few seasons and while they may want to keep him around in that same role, it’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal as players logging the minutes he does often sign for the minimum or close to it. Mikkola will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the third pairing but as he hasn’t produced much even in the minors, a minor pay bump is likelier than a big jump. Walman will be battling Mikkola for that spot and while he has produced more in the minors, again, only a small raise is probable unless one of them really takes a big step and locks down a spot in the top four.
Husso’s first NHL opportunity didn’t go as well as he or the Blues had hoped for but with their cap situation, they couldn’t really afford to bring in a more proven backup. That’s the case again for 2021-22 where he’ll get a chance to prove himself as a viable NHL second option. If it doesn’t happen, he may be back to looking for two-way deals. Either way, St. Louis will need to stay with a low-priced backup to make their salary structure work.
Two Years Remaining
F Ivan Barbashev ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)
When Buffalo signed O’Reilly to this contract just one year after acquiring him from Colorado back in 2016, the price tag seemed steep. The hope was that he’d become a top-line center but it took getting traded again for him to truly get to that level. With St. Louis, O’Reilly has upped his production while continuing his strong defensive play, earning a Selke Trophy and finishing in the top five in voting the other two seasons. He has made a case for a small raise – he doesn’t put up elite offensive numbers to get him into that $10MM or more tier – but he’ll be 32 when his next contract starts, taking away the potential for a max-term pact.
On the other end of the scale is Tarasenko. You all know the story by now, multiple shoulder surgeries, decreased offensive production, and a mutual desire for a change of scenery though one has yet to materialize. He’ll need to bounce back in a big way to have a shot at a contract anywhere near this two years from now. Kyrou’s first full NHL season was a strong one but with his limited track record and their cap situation, a bridge deal was the only way to go. He’ll at least get a small raise with a $3.2MM qualifying offer but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him double his current AAV on a long-term pact. Sundqvist, when healthy, has become a capable third liner and as a center, he plays a premium position but he will need to improve his production if he wants more than a nominal raise two years from now. The same can be said for Barbashev who, while he has been used more as a winger, can also play down the middle which will help his value on the open market.
Three Years Remaining
D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)
Scandella made an immediate impact after being acquired from Montreal in 2020, earning this extension soon after. He doesn’t produce much but is a capable shutdown defender that can play on the second pairing. It’s not a value contract but it’s not an overpayment either.
Metropolitan Notes: Blue Jackets, Lee, Rangers
For years, the Blue Jackets have been searching for help down the middle with those moves largely not panning out. Now, with the team entrenched in a rebuild, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that they may back off of that approach now. With the selections of Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger at the draft, the hope now is those two will represent their future at center, lessening the need to try to trade for a significant replacement. Portzline also notes that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has spoken about the ability to take on a bad contract to add other pieces for a rebuild. While such a move hasn’t happened yet, that could change depending on what happens in training camp as more players re-sign and injuries start to strike, potentially creating the need for some teams to move out money quickly.
More from the Metropolitan Division:
- Islanders forward Anders Lee believes that he has fully recovered from his torn ACL from late last season but he has not yet received full medical clearance, relays Newsday’s Andrew Gross. The captain was limited to just 27 games in 2020-21 due to the injury sustained in mid-March but he still managed to notch 19 points along the way. He could line up alongside Kyle Palmieri this coming season; Palmieri was initially acquired using the space created by Lee’s LTIR placement but re-signed earlier this summer.
- With the Rangers having extra depth on the left wing, GM Chris Drury acknowledged to reporters, including Newsday’s Colin Stephenson, that the team is considering shifting one of Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, or Alexis Lafreniere to the off-wing to ensure all of them play in the top six this coming season. If it happens to be Lafreniere that shifts over to give him a more prominent role, it’s possible that New York’s top three right wingers are him, Kaapo Kakko, and Vitali Kravtsov, all recent first-rounders. The last two will be restricted free agents next summer and will be hoping for bigger roles themselves in order to boost their negotiating leverage.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Current Cap Hit: $88,365,955 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($737.5K, RFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)
After a few quieter years, Palat had a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, finishing second in team scoring and producing at a top-line rate for the first time in a while. That made him a viable candidate for Seattle to pick in expansion although they opted for Yanni Gourde instead. Palat will be 31 when he signs his next deal which means a long-term pact is likely off the table but a medium-term one around this is likely. If he wants to stick around, GM Julien BriseBois may push for something a little lower. Maroon has signed for cheap the last few years and as long as he has a chance to win, he’ll probably keep taking those types of contracts. If not, that spot will be filled by someone else willing to play for close to the minimum. Joseph stands out as a viable offer sheet candidate next summer; assuming he has a good season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep him and re-sign Palat. If a team thinks he’s worthy of a bigger role and wants to pay him for it, that could put the Lightning in a bit of a bind.
Rutta has been a serviceable player on the third pairing since joining them in 2019 and if that continues, he could be in line for a small raise. That said, this feels like a spot for Tampa to try to go a little cheaper to free up some flexibility.
Last year was a tough one for Elliott in Philadelphia which significantly hurt his value heading into free agency. That, combined with Tampa Bay needing a cheap replacement for Curtis McElhinney, made for a good combination here. At this stage of his career, he’ll be going year-to-year on his next contracts so how he fares this season will determine if he has a chance of getting back towards that higher echelon of backups in terms of salary.
Two Years Remaining
F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.125MM, RFA)
D Cal Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)
Things may not have looked too bad after the last group but that starts to change here with several young players expiring after this time. Cirelli is coming off a quiet year but produced at a much better level the previous two seasons. Even if not, his qualifying offer will check in at $5.76MM (120% of his AAV) so a raise is coming. Killorn has been a reliable secondary scorer for several years but with the RFAs on this list, it certainly looks like their raises will squeeze him out; with prices for secondary scoring dropping a bit lately, Killorn may be looking at a small dip if he continues to hover around the 40-point mark. Colton is in line for a bigger role next season following a strong showing in the playoffs which likely has him on a trajectory for a bigger deal as well. Perry and Bellemare are quality veterans who can anchor the fourth line or move up in a pinch; both likely left money on the table to go to the Lightning which is something that can be said for quite a few others on their team.
Sergachev has established himself as a quality piece on the second pairing and at 23, there’s still room for growth. He’s on the same contract as Cirelli so a higher qualifying offer will be coming in the 2023 offseason and likely a bigger deal than that. Cernak doesn’t light up the scoresheet but as a top-four right-shot defender, he’s going to be in line for a significant raise beyond his $3.54MM qualifier as well. If Foote is able to establish himself as a full-time player by the time his deal is up, doubling his AAV or more isn’t out of the question either. Big raises are coming from this group.
Three Years Remaining
F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)
Stamkos is going to be one of the more interesting contracts for Tampa Bay to handle. He’ll be 34 when it starts so he should still have a few good years left in him but with the anticipated higher costs from their RFAs in the last group, it’s quite difficult to see them being able to afford a market-value contract for their captain unless there’s a significant contract moved out by then. Injuries have limited his usefulness lately and if that trend continues, his value will dip considerably. Barre-Boulet isn’t too established at the NHL level yet but he has scored in junior and in the minors and won’t need to do much to live up to a near-minimum contract. Assuming he produces – a reasonable one to make – this could be a nice value contract for them.
Bogosian also should be a value contract but is on the opposite side of his career. He could have gotten more elsewhere or even going year-to-year but opted for some stability with a chance to win.
Seabrook was acquired as part of the Tyler Johnson trade but his playing days are already over. He’ll return to LTIR next season.
West Notes: Oilers Defense, Yamamoto, Chechelev
It has been speculated over the past few weeks that the Oilers are likely to bring a right-shot defenseman on a tryout basis for training camp. It appears they have a couple of targets in mind as Postmedia’s Jim Matheson pegs veterans Michael Stone and Jason Demers as the likeliest candidates to sign one of those deals with Edmonton. Stone is no stranger to the PTO route having been on one with Calgary last year before ultimately signing a two-way deal where he got into 21 games with the Flames and four more with AHL Stockton. Demers hasn’t been in that situation before but after a tough year with Arizona that saw him dropped to a third pairing and reserve role, he may have to settle for a tryout at this stage of free agency.
More from Western Canada:
- In an interview with 630CHED (audio link), Oilers GM Ken Holland provided a small update on negotiations for RFA winger Kailer Yamamoto. He indicated that both sides took a break from discussions for most of August but recently resumed discussions with more scheduled for early next week. With Edmonton’s cap space being limited, a short-term bridge deal is likely all they’ll be able to afford barring a trade that opens up some extra room.
- The Flames announced that 2020 fourth-round pick Daniil Chechelev has signed a one-year AHL deal. The 20-year-old goaltender spent last season split between the VHL and MHL in Russia, suiting up in 40 games along the way. He joins Dustin Wolf, Adam Werner, and Tyler Parsons as those that will be battling for time with AHL Stockton next season and as a result of that battle, Chechelev may find himself with ECHL Kansas City if they want to give him ample playing time.
RFA Profile: Rasmus Dahlin
After his sophomore season, Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin looked primed to take another step forward and potentially establish himself as one of the premier blueliners in the NHL. Unfortunately for him and Buffalo, that didn’t happen. Instead, he struggled considerably (as did many others on the team) and the end result was a step backwards while he remains unsigned with training camp fast approaching.
Despite the dip in production last season, Dahlin has shown himself to be a capable offensive blueliner already with a pair of 40-point years under his belt. He’s not going to be at the level of someone like Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes offensively but the 21-year-old has already shown himself to be above average at that end of the ice.
But what about his play in his own end? That hasn’t progressed anywhere near as well and part of the reason his ATOI hasn’t jumped up much at all since his rookie season is that Dahlin still doesn’t kill penalties. His in-zone play under Ralph Krueger left a lot to be desired although there was some improvement following the coaching change to Don Granato. Offensive numbers drive contract negotiations but Dahlin can’t command top dollar since he isn’t as well-rounded as others around the league are and some of his potential contractual comparables were at the time of signing.
That might seemingly push Dahlin towards a short-term deal, giving him a chance to improve defensively and bounce back offensively while getting arbitration rights along the way. Buffalo has shown a willingness to do that in the past although the end results haven’t been pretty with recent examples of that approach (Sam Reinhart and Linus Ullmark) now playing on other teams. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try for a long-term pact here even if it might carry a little bit of risk.
Statistics
2020-21: 56 GP, 5-18-23, -36, 26 PIMS, 115 shots, 21:36 ATOI
Career: 197 GP, 18-89-107, -56, 98 PIMS, 382 shots, 20:44 ATOI
Comparables
Zach Werenski (Columbus) – While Werenski didn’t take a big step forward in his platform year, he didn’t take a step back either. The offensive numbers are somewhat similar from a per-game perspective although Werenski was better in his own end then compared to Dahlin now. Even so, this would likely represent the low end of what a bridge deal would cost as Dahlin’s draft status gives him a leg up on most of the options here.
Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 11-33-44, -12, 18 PIMS, 168 shots, 22:54 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 237 GP, 38-90-128, +13, 48 PIMS, 563 shots, 22:08 ATOI
Contract: Three years, $15MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 6.14%
Current Equivalent: Same as above
As this contract was basically the top standard, there aren’t really other viable comparable players for bridge deals. $5MM would be the starting point on a bridge contract with anything over two years exceeding this price tag quickly. Accordingly, let’s now look at longer-term options.
Ivan Provorov (Philadelphia) – Like Dahlin, Provorov entered his platform season as someone looking primed to take a big step forward but ultimately underachieved, leading to some questions as to whether a bridge deal would come his way. He was more of a number one than Dahlin has been which could be a factor.
Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 7-19-26, -16, 32 PIMS, 145 shots, 25:07 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 246 GP, 30-67-97, -6, 86 PIMS, 509 shots, 23:45 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $40.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.28%
Current Equivalent: Same as above
Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – For years, this was the top standard that any young blueliner would want to use as a comparable and like Dahlin, he’s a number one pick. Ekblad’s better defensive game looms large here so from a comparable standpoint, this one is a little weaker but it’s possible Dahlin still gets something like that (more on why that could be the case shortly).
Platform Year Stats: 68 GP, 10-11-21, -23, 58 PIMS, 225 shots, 21:28 ATOI (deal was signed pre-platform)
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 227 GP, 37-59-96, +7, 131 PIMS, 577 shots, 21:40 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $60MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 10.27%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $66.96MM ($8.37MM AAV)
Dougie Hamilton (Calgary) – After acquiring him from Boston, Calgary quickly inked Hamilton to the contract that he just wrapped up before signing with New Jersey. The development path was the opposite of what Dahlin’s has been so far (his was a slow start and annual improvement) but the overall numbers are relatively close.
Platform Year Stats: 72 GP, 10-32-42, -3, 41 PIMS, 188 shots, 21:20 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 178 GP, 22-61-83, +23, 95 PIMS, 385 shots, 19:32 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $34.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.05%
Current Equivalent: Six years, $39.365MM ($6.56MM AAV)
Tyler Myers (Buffalo) – Let’s use another Sabres deal as the final comparable. Myers’ first two seasons were a lot better than his third year (and as it turns out, those two remain his top years offensively) so at the time, Buffalo was thinking they had a core two-way player on their hands. Of course, it didn’t work out that way in the end but the numbers are somewhat comparable to Dahlin’s so far.
Platform Year Stats: 55 GP, 8-15-23, +5, 33 PIMS, 84 shots, 22:29 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 217 GP, 29-79-108, +18, 105 PIMS, 310 shots, 22:57 ATOI
Contract: Seven years, $38.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 8.55%
Current Equivalent: Seven years, $48.778MM ($6.968MM AAV)
Projected Contract
In terms of fits for a long-term deal, Dahlin’s comparables appear to be in the high-$6MM range. But if that’s the baseline for that type of contract, his camp would argue that a bridge contract would be the better way to go and rightfully so. If Buffalo wants to buy out a couple of UFA years, they’ll need to go a bit higher, perhaps around the $7.5MM range to persuade Dahlin to go that route; a max-term (eight-year) deal could push it closer to $8MM. Otherwise, a bridge contract starting at over $5MM for an AAV (one that is back-loaded to yield a higher qualifying offer) could very well wind up being the outcome here.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information via CapFriendly.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Current Cap Hit: $82,894,783 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Timothy Liljegren ($863K in 2021-22)
D Rasmus Sandin ($894K in 2021-22)
Potential Bonuses
Liljegren: $400K
Sandin saw limited action with Toronto last season but suited up in five of their seven playoff games and with the departure of Zach Bogosian, a top-six spot should be his for the taking in training camp. While he has shown offensive upside at the lower levels, it hasn’t yet materialized in the NHL and barring a big year on that front, he’s someone that will likely need to sign a cheap one-year deal to preserve as much cap flexibility for Toronto as possible. Liljegren also figures to get a look in training camp and should be one of the first recalls otherwise. He’s also a candidate for a one-year deal after the season, likely for the league minimum either on a one-way contract or with a higher AHL salary.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Adam Brooks ($725K, RFA)
G Jack Campbell ($1.65MM, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Kurtis Gabriel ($750K, UFA)
F Ondrej Kase ($1.25MM, RFA)
F Ilya Mikheyev ($1.645MM, UFA)
D Morgan Rielly ($5MM, UFA)
F Jason Spezza ($750K, UFA)
Mikheyev has shown some flashes of being a quality secondary scorer but consistency has been an issue so far. With the Maple Leafs likely wanting to funnel some money towards a pair of notable UFAs in this list, it’s possible that he becomes a casualty with an eye on someone making less money taking his spot. Engvall, who was in and out of the lineup last season, also falls under that category. Kase was a very interesting signing this summer – he’s talented enough to be a top-six player but concussions have limited him lately. If he stays healthy for the full season, he should provide a strong return on this deal. Spezza should again provide some surplus value from the fourth line and has passed up chances to make more on the open market to play at home. Gabriel will have a limited role when he’s in the lineup and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to sneak him through waivers for cap flexibility purposes; the same can be said for Brooks who has done well in limited duty but Toronto can’t afford to carry a 23-player roster. These last three roster spots will need to be filled by minimum-salaried players for the foreseeable future.
Rielly has been Toronto’s top defenseman over the past several years and his contract has proven to be quite the bargain over that span. That is going to change for 2022-23. Even though he is coming off a quieter year offensively and likely isn’t going to be a 72-point player moving forward like he was in 2018-19, he’s a top-pairing player for the Maple Leafs and would be for many other teams as well. He’ll hit the market at 28 where he can command a max-term contract and will have the offensive numbers to land a sizable raise. Something over $7MM seems likely at this point and a big year could make that price tag even higher.
As for Campbell, he has been everything Toronto could have hoped for. He came in and stabilized the backup position in 2020 and then played quite well down the stretch, earning the number one job for the playoffs where he only allowed 13 goals in their seven-game series loss to Montreal. Even so, he still doesn’t have 100 career NHL appearances. That will limit his earnings ceiling unless he can establish himself as a 50-game goalie or more which is going to be hard to do. He still should be able to double his current price tag based on recent comparables but starter money may be a stretch.
Two Years Remaining
F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Nick Ritchie ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)
Kerfoot has been involved in trade speculation for a while now being the highest-paid forward outside of their top-paid pieces. However, his ability to play in all situations has made him valuable enough that they’ve made other moves instead and kept him on the roster. He doesn’t produce enough to line himself up for a big raise two years from now but the fact he can play center will give him a strong market where he could come close to matching his current AAV. Ritchie was non-tendered by Boston and landed quickly with the Maple Leafs. He has shown the ability to play in the top-six, albeit inconsistently. If he can be that type of player more frequently, he’s young enough to command a significant raise the next time he hits the open market. Kampf was another non-tender this summer, this time by Chicago and will be a key checker for Toronto. Scoring has been a challenge for him which limits his earnings upside considerably. Bunting used a strong second half to land a one-way deal and he’ll have a chance to outperform that if he lands a spot in their top nine. Simmonds took a pay cut to stick around and was rewarded with a no-trade clause in return. Anderson hasn’t played much with Toronto but he’s now waiver-eligible and would be at risk at being claimed. That could keep him on the roster as a result.
Holl has been a nice success story for the Maple Leafs. After not really being able to crack the lineup under former coach Mike Babcock, he has since established himself as a quality second pair defender at a price tag that is well below market value for someone in the top four. He’ll be in line for a fairly significant raise two years from now. Dermott has come along a little slower than they may have hoped but he’s a regular on their third pairing and should get an opportunity to play a bit more than the 13 minutes a game from last season. If that happens, they’ll get good value on his deal. Dermott has one more crack at arbitration eligibility and will be owed a $1.75MM qualifying offer.
Three Years Remaining
D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.034MM, UFA)
G Petr Mrazek ($3.8MM, UFA)
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
Matthews led the league in goals last season and it’s only a matter of time before he notches 50 in a single season. At first glance, it may seem like someone making that much could be in line for a raise on his next deal but as an elite scorer playing a premium position (center) and the fact he’ll hit the open market at 26, the odds are pretty high that he’ll command a bigger contract next time around. The same can be said for Nylander who has either reached the 60-point mark or played at that pace in four of the last five seasons. By the time he reaches free agency, the cap will have gone up a little bit and he should be well-positioned to be one of the higher-paid wingers in free agency.
Muzzin has been an integral part of their back end since coming over in 2019 from the Kings. He has helped form a stabilizing defensive pairing but is good enough to still contribute offensively. He’s a high-end second pairing piece and with the way the market was for defenders this summer, it’s safe to say he’s now on a bit of a below-market deal. Brodie has seen his production drop off the last couple of years but he’s still strong in his own end and was a good partner for Rielly last season. The contract may be a bit high given the falloff in his offensive numbers but with the top-end offense they have, a jump in scoring can’t be ruled out.
Marko Dano Signs In Czech Republic
Marko Dano’s time in North America has come to an end, at least for now. The 26-year-old is off to the Czech Republic as HC Ocelari Trinec of the Extraliga announced they’ve inked Dano to a two-month contract with a team option to extend the agreement for the full 2021-22 season.
Dano was non-tendered by Winnipeg back in July. For the first time in his professional career, he didn’t see any NHL action as he was limited to just 13 contests with AHL Manitoba where he had just a goal and two assists before being recalled to the taxi squad in late April.
Dano, a first-round pick of the Blue Jackets in 2013 (27th overall), has never really been able to find his footing in the NHL. He has played in 141 career games with four different teams and was back with the Jets for his second stint last season. Now basically an AHL player, it makes sense for him to try his hand overseas and he has landed with an organization that his father played with for six seasons back in the 1990s.
Dominik Kahun Signs In Swiss League
September 6th: Kahun’s three-year deal with SC Bern was made official by the team this morning. Oilers reporter Jim Matheson reports that Kahun’s deal includes an out clause every offseason if Kahun wishes to return to the NHL.
August 26th: After his rookie season, free agent forward Dominik Kahun looked like he’d be a decent secondary player in the NHL but things haven’t gone well for him since then. As a result, it appears that he could be heading overseas as a report from Blick in Switzerland has the 26-year-old nearing a three-year deal with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA.
Kahun was somewhat surprisingly non-tendered by Buffalo last fall after the Sabres acquired him from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. After waiting the market out, he was able to catch on with Edmonton who eyed reuniting him with fellow countryman Leon Draisaitl in the hopes of having Kahun provide some depth scoring for a low cost.
Unfortunately for Kahun and the Oilers, that didn’t exactly happen. He managed just nine goals and six assists in 48 games (after notching more than 30 points in each of his first two years) and wound up working his way down the lineup and eventually in the press box as he only suited up in two of their four playoff games.
With the year he had, Kahun may have been hard-pressed to land a one-way NHL contract on the open market this time around – a PTO may have been his likeliest scenario – so opting to head overseas certainly makes sense and if he’s able to land a three-year deal, that’s a lot more security than he’d have received going year-to-year in North America.
Five Key Stories: 8/30/21 – 9/5/21
As the calendar flipped to September, activity around the NHL started to pick up with several signings of note plus some big news on the international front which are included in the key stories of the week.
Making It Official: The Islanders took their time announcing some of their offseason signings and decided to do most of it in one press release. They confirmed the re-signings of UFA winger Kyle Palmieri (four years, $20MM), UFA center Casey Cizikas (six years, $15MM), RFA winger Anthony Beauvillier (three years, $12.45MM), and RFA goaltender Ilya Sorokin (three years, $12MM). Palmieri’s retention will help replace the lost production of Jordan Eberle who went to Seattle in expansion while Cizikas has been a very effective energy forward for several years now. Beauvillier has been a consistent secondary scorer for the last four years and the 24-year-old got a term that walks him to unrestricted free agency while Sorokin will continue to partner with Semyon Varlamov between the pipes. Though not announced yet, veteran winger Zach Parise also confirmed he has an agreement with the Isles.
Early Extensions: A pair of veteran defensemen opted to forego a shot at testing the open market next season to stay where they are. First, the Blackhawks inked Connor Murphy to a four-year, $17.6MM contract. The 28-year-old has been a reliable stay-at-home defender over his four seasons with Chicago which helped him earn a $550K raise on his current deal. Then, the Blues locked up Colton Parayko on an eight-year, $52MM extension. Parayko has been a key piece on the back end in St. Louis for the past five seasons but is coming off a quiet year where he battled recurring back issues. Even so, he’s arguably their best defender when healthy and locking up a top pairing player for that price tag has the potential to be a bargain down the road.
Offer Sheet Success: Offer sheets are infrequently used and even more infrequently do they actually result in the player actually changing teams. That wasn’t the case this time as the Canadiens declined to match Carolina’s one-year, $6.1MM offer sheet to Jesperi Kotkaniemi, receiving 2022 first and third-round picks in return. Montreal wasted little time finding his replacement, acquiring center Christian Dvorak from Arizona for a 2022 first-rounder plus a 2024 second-round selection. Kotkaniemi, the third-overall pick in 2018, is expected to play on the wing in Carolina for now with the hope that the change of scenery will help him to reach his offensive potential. Meanwhile, Dvorak represents a capable replacement for Kotkaniemi and he will likely step onto Montreal’s second line behind Nick Suzuki while giving them some cap certainty with four years remaining on his deal at $4.45MM. As for the Coyotes, they’re up to eight picks in the first two rounds in next year’s draft as their rebuild continues.
Olympic Confirmation: It had been expected for a while now but the NHL and NHLPA made it official with the announcement that NHL players will be permitted to play in the upcoming Olympics in Beijing next year. As they skipped the 2018 Games, it will be the first time since 2014 that NHL players participate in the event. There is a clause in the agreement that could stop them from participating if the NHL is forced to postpone several games due to COVID outbreaks which would require them to reschedule them during that time period.
Winger Deals: A pair of young wingers bypassed their bridge contracts and instead worked out long-term agreements with their teams. First, the Flyers signed winger Joel Farabee to a six-year, $30MM extension that will begin in 2022-23. Farabee’s sophomore season was a good one with 20 goals and 18 assists in 55 games and if he can carry that type of production over a full 82-game campaign, the deal has the potential to be a very good one for Philadelphia. The next day, the Senators re-signed winger Drake Batherson to a very similar contract, six years at a total of $29.85MM. The 23-year-old played his first full NHL season in 2020-21, collecting 17 goals and 17 assists in 56 games. Similar to the Farabee deal, if Batherson can take another step forward and establish himself as a consistent scorer, this has a chance to be a bargain down the road for Ottawa.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vancouver Canucks
Current Cap Hit: $70,835,659 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Nils Hoglander ($892K through 2022-23)
F Vasili Podkolzin ($925K through 2023-24)
D Jack Rathbone ($925K through 2021-22)
Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $200K
Podkolzin: $850K
Rathbone: $850K
Total: $1.9MM
Hoglander had a nice rookie season, notching 27 points in 56 games while finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting. He’s likely to be in a middle-six role for the next couple of years which could have him in bridge contract territory although if he’s able to improve his production a little bit, his camp could look at recent deals for Joel Farabee and Drake Batherson as potential comparables. Podkolzin is coming to North America after spending the last two years in the KHL and should play a regular role fairly quickly. They may ease him based on their current winger situation which makes it tough to project his next contract but he’s someone that should be part of their long-term plans and will get more expensive over time.
Rathbone didn’t look out of place in a late stint last season but with their depth, he will likely have to start in the minors. However, the 22-year-old is probably going to be one of the first recalls and as a result, he will have a few opportunities to produce. That could help him earn a cheap one-way deal for 2022-23 but at this point, it’s unlikely he’ll hit his bonuses.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F Brock Boeser ($5.875MM, RFA)
F Phillip Di Giuseppe ($750K, UFA)
D Jaroslav Halak ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Brad Hunt ($800K, UFA)
D Olli Juolevi ($750K, RFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($825K, RFA)
F Tyler Motte ($1.225MM, UFA)
F Brandon Sutter ($1.125MM, UFA)
Potential Bonuses
Halak: $1.5MM
Boeser’s deal is one of the ones that ultimately played a role in the rule change of the new CBA which creates the second calculation for a qualifying offer at 120% of the AAV instead of just the final-year salary. That rule doesn’t apply to him so he’ll be owed a $7.5MM qualifying offer next summer where he’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility if a long-term extension can’t be reached by then. He’s heading for a big raise either way. Motte has become a very effective energy forward and those players have still commanded good contracts on the open market so his next deal could approach double his current rate. Sutter’s market value was basically just established earlier this offseason and his value probably won’t jump significantly after next season. Di Giuseppe and MacEwen will fill depth roles and those spots will need to be at or near the minimum for the foreseeable future.
Hunt has held down a regular spot on an NHL roster the last few years even though it hasn’t yielded a lot of NHL action. He’s a power play specialist and he has been claimed on waivers before so it will be interesting to see if Vancouver keeps him as their seventh defender or tries to send him down. Juolevi had a limited role last season which made taking a one-year deal the smartest route for both sides. He’ll need to establish himself as a regular on the third pairing to have a shot at getting any sort of notable raise.
Halak comes over from Boston and will be a nice mentor that can push for playing time. At 36, he’ll be going year-to-year moving forward. Worth noting is that his bonuses are quite achievable, $1.25MM for 10 games played and $250K for a .905 SV%. Vancouver is probably going to be in LTIR all season long so those bonuses (plus any others the prospects hit) are going to come off their Upper Limit in 2022-23.
Two Years Remaining
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($3MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
F J.T. Miller ($5.25MM, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)
Horvat has been a key player down the middle for his seven-year NHL career, logging tough defensive minutes while still chipping in offensively. His contract has proven to be a nice bargain for the Canucks but the 26-year-old will be in line for a max-term deal and a significant raise two years from now. The same can probably be said for Miller who has established himself as a top-line forward after coming over from Tampa Bay while playing well down the middle when called upon which will only help his value. It will cost a lot more to keep these two around long-term. Dowling provides some extra depth up front but is a candidate to be waived if someone else pushes him out of the lineup.
Ferland has missed most of the last two years with concussion trouble and there are questions about whether or not he’ll be able to return or even if he should try. He’s likely to go on LTIR and that will be important to keep in mind once we get to the Unsigned Players section.
Hamonic earned this deal after playing for considerably less last year but the fact he was willing to go outside Western Canada certainly bolstered his leverage. He won’t produce much but if he can log around 20 minutes a night, they’ll be fine with this contract. Schenn is another low-cost depth option and could be a candidate to be waived as well if someone like Rathbone forces Vancouver’s hand and plays well enough to earn a full-time roster spot.
Three Years Remaining
F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.225MM, UFA)
Pearson re-signed with Vancouver just before the trade deadline with an extension that looked a little high based on the season he was having and where he fits in on their depth chart but unlike some of the similar-priced deals to their now-former role players, this one won’t hurt as much. Vancouver used Dallas’ expansion situation to their advantage to add and sign Dickinson as their new third-line center, bumping Sutter down a line in the process. Dickinson hasn’t put up much in the way of offensive numbers but he should get an opportunity to play a bit of a bigger role which would help justify the contract.
Myers’ contract has not been favorably looked upon from the moment it was signed. He had his limitations in Winnipeg and is better off in a more limited role than a top-pairing one but Vancouver still handed him a significant contract and a big role. Barring an uptick in offensive production, he was going to have a hard time living up to it and that hasn’t happened yet as his point-per-game averages have been close to what they were with the Jets. He’s a capable blueliner in the right spot on the depth chart but they are going to be hard-pressed to get any sort of value out of this deal.
Four Or More Years Remaining
G Thatcher Demko ($5MM through 2025-26)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($7.26MM through 2026-27)*
F Conor Garland ($4.95MM through 2025-26)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM through 2024-25)
*-Arizona is retaining $999K on Ekman-Larsson’s contract each year.
Garland was brought over as part of the Ekman-Larsson trade and while the blueliner was the headliner, Garland is still a significant addition. He was one of Arizona’s top scoring threats the last two seasons and will have the opportunity to play a top-six role in Vancouver. A boost in production with the change of scenery could make his deal a team-friendly one.
The same can’t be said for Ekman-Larsson. He’s coming off a tough season and the final few years of that contract could be a concern given all of the tough minutes he has logged over the years. He’ll certainly be a big addition for now but this contract could cost them the services of one of their other key veterans down the road. Poolman’s contract was one of the more puzzling ones in free agency. He’s a decent third pairing stay-at-home option but those players don’t typically command four years on the open market. Clearly, GM Jim Benning thinks he can bring more to the table than he did with Winnipeg.
Demko has very limited NHL experience – just 72 regular season games – but did well in what was a tough year for Vancouver in 2020-21. He may not be ready to be a 55-plus-game starter – that’s why Halak was brought in – but he’s definitely ready to take on the heavier side of the workload between the pipes. It may take another year or two but he’s capable of establishing himself as a strong number one and if that happens, this will be a big bargain for Vancouver.
Buyouts
G Braden Holtby ($500K in 2021-22, $1.9MM in 2022-23)
F Jake Virtanen ($50K in 2021-22, $500K in 2022-23)
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Salary Cap Recapture
G Roberto Luongo ($3.035MM in 2021-22)
Still To Sign
D Quinn Hughes
F Elias Pettersson
Pettersson looked to be on his way to another season of being near a point per game before missing the final 30 games due to a wrist injury. That shouldn’t affect his next contract too much though. He has established himself as a top liner although he may be better off as a winger than a center moving forward which could cost him a little bit on this next deal since centers tend to get a bit more of a premium than wingers. A bridge deal would be in the high $5MM to low $6MM range while one that buys out UFA eligibility will cost a couple million more.
Hughes has a bit less leverage than Pettersson with the shorter track record and isn’t eligible for an offer sheet. However, he has two years of high-end production and he already looks like a premier point-producer among NHL defensemen. We’ve seen those players get paid considerably this offseason and his camp undoubtedly will be wanting to use those as comparables in negotiations. The potential price tags are likely similar to Pettersson’s thresholds.
Best Value: Horvat
Worst Value: Myers
Looking Ahead
By the time you factor in Ferland’s LTIR situation and Vancouver’s cap space, the Canucks are going to have somewhere between $13MM-$14MM in cap room, slightly more than that if they carry a roster below the maximum size. Even so, that’s probably not enough to sign both Hughes and Pettersson to long-term deals which is why the expectation has been that one would get a bridge and the other a long-term contract. We’ll find out over the next few weeks who gets which one.
The cap is going to be an issue for a while for Vancouver. While they have just $53MM committed for 2022-23 right now, that goes up quickly once the two RFAs sign while Boeser gets his guaranteed big raise plus the expected bonus overage penalty. That won’t leave much short-term wiggle room and a year later, they’ll be contending with bigger deals for Horvat and Miller. There isn’t a lot of long-term money on the books compared to some teams but it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep this entire core intact over the next few years with a salary cap that isn’t going to rise very much or very quickly.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.