Author: Brian La Rose

This edition of the PHR Mailbag largely focuses on the trade deadline which is now just over two months away.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

met man: Brian, do you think the Rangers should upgrade the backup goalie situation?

When I first saw this question, my immediate thought was yes, they should do something to upgrade the spot.  Jaroslav Halak is not having a particularly strong season which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise considering how poorly things went for him last season with Vancouver.  It stands to reason that if Igor Shesterkin gets injured, they’re in trouble.  In that sense, it does make sense to try to upgrade.

However, my second thought changed my tune somewhat.  Yes, they’ll be in trouble if Shesterkin goes down but that will be the case with whatever backup they have whether it’s Halak or one of the second-stringers that might move in the next couple of months.  Knowing that, is a second-string upgrade the most efficient use of their cap space?  Or should they focus on players that are going to play every night that improve their scoring or defense?

After bouncing those two thoughts around, I’ve come to some sort of hedge answer.  If I’m GM Chris Drury, I’d flip a mid-round pick to Columbus for Joonas Korpisalo at the deadline.  At that point, there isn’t much more than $300K left on his contract which shouldn’t be too difficult to fit in.  If they wanted to bank a little extra space between now and the deadline, they could paper Ben Harpur back and forth to help on that front.

Korpisalo’s numbers aren’t great but they’re better than Halak’s and he’s the type of goalie that might be worth getting an early look at to see if he’d fit as a longer-term backup beyond this season.  He does have some playoff experience and did quite well so as long as adding him doesn’t prevent them from making a bigger splash, it’d be worthwhile doing.  However, it’s worth noting that Halak can’t be buried in the minors which would offset most of Korpisalo’s cost as he has a full no-move clause so that would need to be factored into their spending plans.

cheftay: Who do you see Vancouver trading Horvat to and what a potential trade might look like? Do you see them possibly trading Miller too before his NTC kicks in this summer? If you were Vancouver’s GM, what might you do with this team going into the trade deadline and in the offseason? Would you buy out OEL?

In a recent mailbag, I had Vancouver finding a way to re-sign Bo Horvat and I don’t want to fully bail on that just yet.  I think a factor in their contract offers has been their cap situation but if things improve on that end (such as saving some money on a Brock Boeser trade, for example), they would be able to up their offer and that might be enough to bridge the gap.  I’m certainly not as confident in that happening as I was a month ago but I think it could happen.

Between that and hoping for as much certainty on next year’s cap as soon as possible, I think a Horvat trade, if it comes to that, comes close to the trade deadline.  It’s easier for other teams to make the money work in late February/early March than it is in January.  As for where, I like Colorado.  They’re a team that has a long-term need that might be willing to do an extension at the same time as the trade.  If Vancouver retains 50% and there’s an extension in place, I could see part of the offer being a first-round pick and young center Alex Newhook.

As for J.T. Miller, I don’t see him moving short of him turning around and asking for a trade.  Trading players before a long-term extension kicks in rarely happens and I don’t think the offers now would be better than what they were being offered pre-extension.  He should still be part of their long-term plans.

There’s not a whole lot Vancouver can really do to dramatically change up the core beyond moving Horvat if an extension can’t be reached.  They’d be selling low on Boeser and Conor Garland while Tyler Myers isn’t going anywhere yet (when his signing bonus is paid though, that’s another story).  I’d be selling high on Luke Schenn who may not be the best defenseman to move but at a $900K cap hit, he’s cheap enough to create a good bidding war.  If they can’t extend Andrei Kuzmenko, I’d be moving him as well.  I’d be trying to move Tanner Pearson as well but I don’t think there’d be much traction there.

Then there’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  With four years left at $7.26MM (excluding Arizona’s portion), that contract isn’t getting any better.  But with two of those buyout years (25/26 and 26/27) costing $4.767MM each, that’s a bit too much of a single-year cap charge to eat right now.  Plus, carrying eight years of dead cap money is hardly ideal.  In the short term, I’m not convinced they can get a better defender for less money than the new guy’s cap hit plus Ekman-Larsson’s cap charge and if they can’t do that, why buy him out?  Ekman-Larsson isn’t a top defender anymore but he’s still more than serviceable.  They don’t have a particularly good or deep back end right now so for now, he stays.

Grocery stick: Right now the Devils seem to be on track for reaching the playoffs. That should make them buyers at the trade deadline. What are they doing with Holtz and Nemec who are their most high-end prospects in my book? Will the Devils flip their top prospects for success this season? They have some valuable depth players on expiring contracts so there won’t be a ‘next season’ for this Devils team. Are they going all in?

Generally speaking, I don’t like the idea of teams going all in after being a non-playoff team.  It’s rare for a team to go from being a cellar dweller to a contender in one fell swoop so why push all the chips in so quickly?  On the other hand, I’m not convinced that the Devils are a sustainable contender as things stand so with things falling into place this season, is it better to take your shot?

The next six weeks or so will go a long way in determining which route they go.  Right now, things are looking good even with their recent struggles but if they continue to slip, the willingness to go all in likely dissipates somewhat.  I don’t think Simon Nemec will be in play but I do think Alexander Holtz could be in the right situation.  That right situation would be getting a young (25 or under) core piece that has at least four years of team control remaining.

As things stand, I think they’re softer buyers.  Andreas Johnsson’s expiring contract won’t carry value but he’s a good enough player that he can be used as a contract matcher which would give them $2.275MM (his cap charge while in the minors) in full-season space to work with.  That’s enough to add a depth piece or two (depending on if the other team retains) and send a message that management believes in this group without risking much of anything in terms of longer-term assets and cap flexibility.

aka.nda: What’s going on with the Sens and Blue Jackets? They gonna be buyers or sellers? Who are the targets? Possibly same question in regard to the Rangers and Flames as well.

Ottawa: They’re a bit of a Wild Card for a couple of reasons.  Can they get back into the Wild Card race?  I think they can.  But with an estate basically running the team right now, what do they have for budget space?  Playoffs were the expectation after a busy summer of upgrades so it’s hard to see them sell.  Besides, other than Cam Talbot, I’m not sure there’s a pending UFA that carries a lot of trade value for them.  I think they’re light buyers in terms of shoring up their depth (there are plenty of possible targets on that front) but I’m intrigued to see if they have something bigger going that requires Nikita Zaitsev‘s contract being moved out.

Blue Jackets: The playoffs aren’t an option for them so they’re sellers but this will be a softer sell.  In other words, move the pending UFAs but not the core guys.  Vladislav Gavrikov will fetch a good return and as long as they’re willing to retain half of Gustav Nyquist’s deal, I think they can get a mid-round pick for him plus whatever they get for Korpisalo.  I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Jarmo Kekalainen prefers already-drafted prospects over draft picks as those players better fit the timeline of their young core.

Rangers: We’ve covered the goalie situation already but let’s look at the skaters.  They’ll be buyers barring them falling well out of the playoff race.  I had Vladimir Tarasenko going there in last weekend’s mailbag and that’s the side of the market I expect them to be on.  If there’s a key forward (winger or center), they’ll be inquiring.  Defensively, I think they’ll look to upgrade on their sixth defender; Ben Harpur is a capable depth player but do they really want him in the lineup in the playoffs?  Who they target there depends on the forward they get.

Flames: Right now, they are narrowly holding onto a Wild Card spot.  As long as they stay in that range, I think they’re buyers on the rental front.  With over $80MM in commitments for next season already per CapFriendly, they can’t really afford someone on a multi-year deal.  Depending on what happens with Oliver Kylington, they might want to add a defensive upgrade but otherwise, a top-six winger will be the target.  Having said that, I could see them being a team that sells a bit as well in an effort to try to free up some cap space.  At first glance, Andrew Mangiapane might be someone whose contract they might want to try to get out of.  Maybe the buying move is a player-player swap, not a player-for-futures one that we typically see.

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