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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Toronto Maple Leafs

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

Over the past several months, PHR has looked at every NHL team and given a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This is the final piece of the series.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $88,851,650 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pontus Holmberg (one year, $827.5K)
F Nicholas Robertson (two years, $796.7K)

Potential Bonuses
None

Robertson has been viewed as one of Toronto’s top prospects for a few years now.  However, injuries have limited him significantly in the pros and he’s out for the rest of this season after undergoing shoulder surgery.  The Maple Leafs frequently use bridge contracts and he’s a very strong candidate to get one.  If he returns to health and produces, it could be around the $1.5MM mark but it’s likely to come in below that.  Holmberg fit in nicely in Toronto’s bottom six and is playing his way into consideration for a full-time spot beyond this season although he’s back in the minors for the time being.  Even so, with their cap situation and Holmberg’s limited NHL experience, a short-term bridge deal around the $1MM range is where his next deal should fall.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Joey Anderson ($750K, RFA)
F Zach Aston-Reese ($840.6K, UFA)
D Jordie Benn ($750K, UFA)
F Michael Bunting ($950K, UFA)
F Pierre Engvall ($2.25MM, UFA)
D Justin Holl ($2MM, UFA)
F David Kampf ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alex Kerfoot ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Victor Mete ($750K, RFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($1.875MM, UFA)*
G Ilya Samsonov ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($900K, UFA)

*-St. Louis is retaining 50% of O’Reilly’s cap hit ($3.75MM) and Minnesota is retaining an additional 25% ($1.875MM).

Kerfoot’s hold of a roster spot in Toronto has seemingly been in question for about three of his four years with the team but it’s not because he has a bad contract by any stretch.  He’s on pace to push for 40 points again which, coupled with his ability to play center and the wing, should have him earning another million or so on his next deal, one that’s likely to be for more years than this four-year agreement he’s finishing now.  Engvall is a capable depth forward but hasn’t shown the ability to produce consistently.  Since he doesn’t kill penalties too frequently either, his market might not be the strongest.  He could get something close to this amount but not considerably higher.  Kampf isn’t much of a scorer himself but with him being good on faceoffs and killing penalties, there should be a market for him that should land him a multi-year deal closer to the $2MM (or even $2.5MM if enough teams show interest.).

Then there are the newcomers.  O’Reilly has had a tough year this season but has a long and proven track record as a key two-way player.  At 32, he still should be able to land a sizable agreement on a multi-year deal but it’s likely to be for at least a couple million less than his base $7.5MM AAV unless he has a big finish to his season with Toronto; he’s off to a good start on that front.  As for Acciari, he had a nice bounce-back showing in the bottom six with St. Louis before the swap and, as a player who can hold his own on the third line or anchor the fourth, can kill penalties, plays with an edge, and win faceoffs, he’ll have a stronger market than he did last summer which should lead to a multi-year agreement and an AAV closer to the $2MM mark at least.

Bunting is going to be a particularly intriguing case to follow.  He has been one of the top bargains in the NHL these last two years, providing top-six production for depth forward money.  Even with what’s still a limited track record, there are enough comparable deals that could realistically push his asking price past the $5MM mark on a long-term agreement.  Is that one Toronto will be able to fit into their salary structure?  That’s one of the questions they’ll certainly be pondering.  Aston-Reese didn’t have a strong market last summer and likely hasn’t done enough to change that so he should stay in this price range.  Simmonds, if he plays another year, will be at the league minimum while Anderson should wind up there as well.

Holl might not be a top-end defender but he has held his own while logging around 21 minutes a night this season.  He’s also a right-shot player, the handedness that’s always in high demand.  While he was a depth defender early on in his time with the Leafs, that’s not the case now and he could add at least $1MM on his next contract which could very well price his way out of Toronto.  Benn and Mete both signed minimum deals back in July and their markets haven’t changed significantly since then.  Mete is arbitration-eligible once more but because he has 247 career games under his belt, he’s likely to be non-tendered to avoid that risk.

Samsonov chose to sign with Toronto in the hopes of rebuilding his value.  That decision has worked out rather well so far as he is staking claim to the starting role.  We’ve seen the price tag for young goalies with limited experience go up considerably lately (Samsonov has less than 130 NHL appearances even including the playoffs) and it’s plausible that his next deal could push past the $5MM mark.

Signed Through 2023-24

D T.J. Brodie ($5MM, UFA)
D Mark Giordano ($800K, UFA)
D Timothy Liljegren ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Auston Matthews ($11.64MM, UFA)
G Matt Murray ($4.688MM, UFA)*
D Jake Muzzin ($5.625MM, UFA)
F William Nylander ($6.962MM, UFA)
D Rasmus Sandin ($1.4MM, RFA)

*-Ottawa is retaining an additional $1.5625MM (25%) on Murray’s deal.

It has been widely expected for several years now that Matthews will set the new standard for the highest AAV in the NHL when he signs his next contract.  It’s not a matter of if he’ll pass Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM starting next season) but by how much.  He has been the top goal-scorer in the NHL in the past two seasons and even in a bit of a down year this season, he’s still averaging over a point per game.  Matthews will hit the open market at the age of 26 when he’s clearly in the prime of his career.  Top centers rarely make it to free agency and if he’s going to be the rare exception, there will be plenty of interest, even at a record-setting price tag.

What happens with Matthews could very well dictate if Toronto can afford to re-sign Nylander as well.  He cracked the 80-point mark last season for the first time and is playing at a 95-point pace this year.  One more season around that type of production and it’s quite possible that the AAV on a max-term deal for him will push past the $10MM plateau as well.  Even if there’s a jump in the Upper Limit by then, keeping both players will be tricky.

Muzzin has spent most of the season on the injured list and there are questions about his ability to return, not only this year but beyond that.  He has been ruled out for the rest of 2022-23 as expected, but unless they know that Muzzin isn’t coming back period, any other moves they make will also be limited to rentals.  At this point, it doesn’t seem likely that the veteran will be able to command anywhere near this type of money if he is able to come back.  As for Brodie, he continues to be a mobile and steady veteran that can kill penalties, log big minutes, play on both sides, and chip in with a few points.  Nothing flashy but that type of role is one that’s always in demand.  He’ll be 34 when he hits the open market but even so, a deal similar to his current one (four years at $5MM per season) could be doable.

Sandin showed a fair bit of offensive upside in the past and slowly but surely, he’s starting to produce a little more in Toronto.  He’s on his bridge deal now, one that carries a $1.6MM qualifying offer.  Assuming he continues to develop and starts to push his way into more playing time, he should be able to more than double that with arbitration rights.  Liljegren is in a very similar situation although his offensive upside hasn’t been viewed as high as Sandin’s.  But otherwise, both players are gradually improving and are trending toward eventual top-four roles.  Liljegren’s qualifier checks in at $1.5MM next summer and he, too, should double that at least if he continues to progress.  Giordano accepted a contract that was well below market value to stay with his hometown team.  If he was to sign another deal, it’d be for his age-41 season and at that point, he’s likely to be around the minimum salary once again.

Murray has had flashes of dominance mixed in with struggles and injuries which is what happened in his previous stops with Ottawa and Pittsburgh as well.  When he’s on his game, he’s a capable starting goaltender but the inconsistency will hurt him.  When he signed this contract, Murray was viewed as a goalie on the rise.  That shouldn’t be the case in 2024 where he’s likely to be viewed as more of a mid-tier netminder.  The market rate for those types of players is closer to the $4MM range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)
D Conor Timmins ($850K in 2022-23, $1.1MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25)
G Joseph Woll ($767K, RFA)

Tavares certainly hasn’t played poorly since joining Toronto as he’s averaging just under a point per game in his five seasons with the team but that’s not a great return on one of the priciest UFA deals in NHL history either.  The flattened salary cap – something that couldn’t have been foreseen at the time this deal was signed – has also exacerbated the effect of this contract on their cap situation.  That all said, he’s still a very important piece for the Maple Leafs but if he’s going to sign a second contract with the team, it will need to be for considerably less than this to fit what their financial outlook is likely to be if they keep their other core pieces.

Marner has been one of the top-scoring wingers in the league for the last several seasons.  Over the last five years, only one – Artemi Panarin – has more points than he does.  With the cap set to be higher in 2025, it stands to reason that he could take aim at setting the new benchmark for a contract for a winger; Panarin checks in at $11.643MM.  Marner will be 28 when this contract kicks in so it’s pretty much a lock that he’ll be securing a max-term agreement if he wants it on the open market.

Timmins was picked up early in the season from Arizona and has done quite well in a limited role which earned him the extension earlier this month.  If he can lock down a full-time spot and continues to produce, his next contract could be more than double what he’ll start getting next season.

Woll doesn’t have much NHL action under his belt but with two years left at an AAV that will be below the league minimum next season, he’s the odds-on favorite to be the backup at some point during that stretch.  Exactly when that permanent promotion comes will go a long way toward determining how much his next contract will be.  If he’s established by then, it could be as high as the $3MM range.

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Flyers Recall Elliot Desnoyers

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The Flyers are giving one of their more promising prospects his first taste of NHL action as the team announced (Twitter link) that they’ve recalled winger Elliot Desnoyers from Lehigh Valley of the AHL.  He will make his NHL debut tonight against New Jersey.

The 21-year-old was a fifth-round pick by Philadelphia back in 2020 (135th overall) but has certainly outperformed his draft stock since then.  He became an impact scorer at the major junior level after being drafted, recording 137 points in 108 games with Halifax of the QMJHL after being selected which helped him earn a spot on Canada’s entry into the World Juniors last summer.

This season, Desnoyers has made the adjustment to playing in the pros and has done quite well, leading the Phantoms in scoring with 19 goals and 17 assists in 48 games.  He’ll now get a chance to see if that scoring touch can translate to the NHL level.

To make room for Desnoyers on the roster, the Flyers placed winger Travis Konecny on injured reserve.  He suffered an upper-body injury on Monday against Calgary and there’s no timeline for how long he’ll be out.

Avalanche Assign Jonas Johansson To AHL, Recall Justus Annunen

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Following last night’s victory over Winnipeg where he dressed as the backup goaltender, the Avalanche returned goaltender Jonas Johansson to AHL Colorado, per the AHL’s transactions log.  In a corresponding move, Justus Annunen has been recalled from the Eagles.

Johansson has spent the majority of the season in the minors, posting an impressive 2.50 GAA along with a .915 SV% in 23 games.  The 27-year-old also has made one appearance with the Avs, kicking aside all seven shots he faced in 23 minutes while extending his streak to four years of seeing NHL action.

Annunen, meanwhile, saw his first NHL action of the season last Saturday against St. Louis, stopping 19 of 20 shots for the victory.  The 22-year-old has put up similar numbers to Johansson with the Eagles with a 2.53 GAA and a .913 SV% in 29 contests.  Still a prospect, it has made sense for the Avs to keep him in the minors and the older Johansson up with the big club to serve as the backup so this move suggests that Annunen might get the start tonight against Calgary.

Senators Recall Mark Kastelic, Assign Ridly Greig To AHL

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The Senators have made a pair of roster moves in advance of their game tonight against Montreal, announcing (Twitter link) that they have recalled center Mark Kastelic from AHL Belleville while assigning rookie middleman Ridly Greig back to the minors.

Kastelic has spent the majority of the season with Ottawa, getting into 43 games with the big club.  However, he only collected four goals and a single assist in that stretch in a little over nine minutes per night so following the All-Star break, the team elected to have him spend some time with Belleville.  The decision worked as Kastelic picked up a goal and four assist in just seven contests with the Baby Sens.

As for Greig, the 20-year-old held his own in his first taste of NHL action, picking up a goal and three helpers in 11 games while averaging 13:29 per night.  However, for the time being, they’ve decided that Greig should play a bigger role with Belleville for the time being who is trying to get back into the AHL playoff picture.  He has done well at that level this season as a first-year pro, tallying 12 goals and 11 assists in 28 games so far.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Greig back up with Ottawa at some point in the next few weeks, especially if the Sens wind up seeing some more veterans over the next few days.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

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The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away and while there have been a couple of big splashes made already, there will undoubtedly be more to come along with the usual smorgasbord of depth moves that this time of year usually brings.  With that in mind, it’s a good time for our next edition of the mailbag to discuss the upcoming deadline (or anything else hockey-related).

The last mailbag was run in three separate segments.  Topics in the first included Chuck Fletcher’s future with the Flyers, whether it’s time for Pittsburgh to kick off a rebuilding phase, and Colorado’s potential deadline plans.  The second focused on Red Wings center Dylan Larkin who remains one of the more intriguing players to keep an eye on as his contract extension has yet to be finalized.  Lastly, among the topics in the third column were Seattle’s playoff push, the Stars’ cap situation heading into the deadline, and the possibility of Timo Meier heading to the Devils.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

St. Louis Blues Reassign Matthew Highmore

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Feb 23: A disappointing week later and Highmore has been returned to the AHL. The 26-year-old forward played in two games, both losses, and registered two shots on net.

Feb 18: After moving forwards Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari to Toronto last night, the Blues had a pair of open roster spots to fill.  They’ve now decided who will get them as they announced the recalls of Nikita Alexandrov and Matthew Highmore from AHL Springfield.

Alexandrov is up with St. Louis for the fourth time this season.  He got into 18 games during the first three opportunities, picking up three goals and two assists, pretty good production for someone who was basically limited to exclusive fourth line duty as he’s averaging just 8:46 per game.  The 22-year-old has been much more productive with the Thunderbirds, chipping in with a dozen goals and ten helpers in 28 AHL contests.  He’s in the second season of a three-year, entry-level deal carrying a cap hit of just under $817K.

As for Highmore, he’s in his first season with St. Louis after signing a one-year, two-way deal for the NHL minimum with them last summer.  The 26-year-old hasn’t seen any NHL action in 2022-23 but has 137 appearances over parts of four seasons with Chicago and Vancouver prior to this year.  Highmore has done quite well with Springfield this season, picking up 46 points in 47 games to lead the team in scoring.  He’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer.

Meanwhile, the Blues have also assigned Adam Gaudette to Springfield.  He was one of the players they picked up in the deal from Toronto and while he’s a bit more experienced than Highmore with 218 career appearances, he’ll stay in the minors for the time being.

Golden Knights Transfer Mark Stone To LTIR

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At the beginning of the month, Golden Knights winger Mark Stone underwent back surgery with no timetable for his return.  That was certainly a big blow as the captain has 38 points in 43 games so far this season.  Now, the team has made the anticipated move as CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that they’ve placed the veteran on LTIR.  In doing so, Vegas now has an extra $9.5MM in spending room while their LTIR pool now eclipses $23.5MM with Shea Weber, Robin Lehner, and Nolan Patrick also on there.  They’ve already used $750K of that with today’s emergency recall of goaltender Michael Hutchinson.

With the trade deadline now less than two weeks away, this gives Vegas a boost in what they’re allowed to spend; while many of the other contenders are in either dollar-in, dollar-out situations or have limited flexibility, the options that the Golden Knights now have are much more plentiful.  Of course, going that route will come with some risks as well.  If GM Kelly McCrimmon goes and spends that money, Stone likely won’t be able to come back for the rest of the season as Vegas would have to get back into compliance before they could activate him.  The only way that could happen in that situation is if more players are out long-term and have high enough cap hits to offset Stone’s AAV.

Stone was actually in this same situation last year.  He was dealing with a back injury and went on LTIR with Vegas tap-dancing around the LTIR limit all season long; he was only able to return when three regular veterans landed on there late in the year.  It’s too early to say if that could be an option this time around as he remains out indefinitely.  But in the meantime, the Golden Knights now have considerably more options heading into the trade deadline than they did a month ago when Stone was still in the lineup.

Trade Deadline Primer: New Jersey Devils

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The trade deadline looms and is now less than two weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the New Jersey Devils.

After a disappointing 2021-22 campaign that saw New Jersey finish just two points out of last in the Metropolitan Division and 37 points out of a playoff spot, expectations weren’t particularly high heading into 2022-23.  Sure, GM Tom Fitzgerald made a few moves to shore up the roster but making up that type of deficit in a single season just doesn’t happen very often.

The Devils, however, will be one of the exceptions to that thought as they are in the mix for first in the division and are comfortably ahead in the Wild Card standings as well.  They’ve become one of the top-scoring teams in the league while also being one of the stingier defensive ones which is a great combination to have.  As a result, it’s safe to say that they will be adding to their group in the coming days.

Record

37-14-5, 2nd in the Metropolitan

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$2.93MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 44/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th
2024: NJ 1st, NJ 2nd, NJ 3rd, NJ 4th, NJ 5th, NJ 6th, NJ 7th

Trade Chips

Let’s start with an easy one.  Andreas Johnsson has spent most of the season in the minors thanks to a $3.4MM AAV that is a bit on the high side.  While he doesn’t have much in the way of standalone value – he has cleared waivers twice this season after all – he’s a strong candidate to be included as salary ballast if the Devils bring in a pricey upgrade.

While many teams will be focusing on rentals that will be eligible for unrestricted free agency this summer, there is an expectation that New Jersey is open to bringing in someone that could be part of their longer-term future.  Those players often come with high price tags so young winger Alexander Holtz is sure to grab some attention.  Things haven’t gone according to plan for him this season as he has seen limited action in the NHL and hasn’t been able to produce much.  However, he’s only in the first year of his entry-level deal so the seventh-overall pick in 2020 still has plenty of runway left in his development.  Moving Holtz would certainly sting but it stands to reason that if he goes, they’d be getting a critical win-now piece in return.

The Devils are facing a decision this summer when it comes to Mackenzie Blackwood.  The netminder has shown flashes in the past but has struggled once again this season and has fallen behind Vitek Vanecek on the depth chart.  His qualifying offer of $3.36MM might be too much for them to tender so it’s possible that he could be included as salary ballast as well to facilitate a trade.  A team or two might want to take a closer look at him as well to see if he could be part of their plans beyond this season.  The Devils have Nico Daws and Akira Schmid in the minors who both have NHL experience or they could turn around and add another veteran netminder if they were to part with Blackwood.

As for some other prospects that could go, defenseman Nikita Okhotyuk could draw some interest.  The 22-year-old has seen NHL action in each of his first two seasons and plays with the type of physical edge that could have some teams wondering if he could fit on their third pairing down the road.  Forward Graeme Clarke is having a breakout season with AHL Utica and at 21, his stock is on the rise.  In a smaller move, he’d be a forward that teams will likely be calling about.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Nolan Foote, F Nikola Pasic, F Tyce Thompson, D Reilly Walsh

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Winger: There’s a reason New Jersey has been linked to some prominent forwards, they’re looking to add an impact piece.  Ondrej Palat has been injured for most of the season and has been inconsistent when he has played.  Dawson Mercer, Tomas Tatar, and Yegor Sharangovich are holding their own in the top six but pushing more of them onto the third line would deepen their attack.  There’s a definite spot to fill and it could go a long way toward making their forward group even more potent heading into the postseason while taking some pressure off Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.

2) Defensive Depth: While it’s widely expected that the Devils will sign Luke Hughes once his college season is finished, the back end of their back end isn’t the deepest.  Okhotyuk and Kevin Bahl have both seen action this season and the underlying numbers haven’t been great.  Adding a veteran sixth defender would give them some insurance in case of injuries and if it’s a stay-at-home defender, it could also give them a chance to mix and match a little bit depending on their opponent.  There’s a good chance that the bulk of their cap space will be used to add up front which should have Fitzgerald shopping in the lower-cost options in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Five Key Stories: 2/13/23 – 2/19/23

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With the trade deadline now less than two weeks away, activity is starting to pick up across the NHL with a pair of signings and a trade headlining the key stories of the week.

Maatta Re-Signs: Olli Maatta opted to take a one-year deal with Detroit last summer in the hopes of rebuilding some value after some tough showing with Chicago and Los Angeles.  That proved to be a wise move as he agreed to a two-year, $6MM extension with the Red Wings that runs through the 2024-25 campaign.  The 28-year-old has been a dependable depth defender for Detroit this season, logging more than 18 minutes a night and his extension will allow some of their prospects to spend a bit more time developing at AHL Grand Rapids.

Gavrikov Sits: Perhaps inspired by Arizona’s decision to sit Jakob Chychrun for trade-related reasons last weekend (a move hasn’t happened yet), Columbus has decided to follow suit with blueliner Vladislav Gavrikov.  The 27-year-old is expected to be one of the top rental blueliners on the move but the Blue Jackets have set a high asking price at a first-round pick, a third-rounder, and a fourth-round selection although they may have a taker pending another move being made first.  Gavrikov had a breakout year last season with 33 points in 80 games but while his playing time hasn’t gone down in 2022-23, his production has as he has just three goals and seven assists in 52 games so far.  At this point, it’s not believed that the rearguard will be discussing an extension with any of his trade suitors.

Maple Leafs Make A Splash: The Maple Leafs decided to do their deadline shopping early as they acquired centers Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from St. Louis in a three-team swap.   St. Louis, who retained 50% of O’Reilly’s $7.5MM AAV, receives Toronto’s 2023 first-round pick, Ottawa’s 2023 third-round pick, and Toronto’s 2024 second-round pick along with prospect Mikhail Abramov and veteran Adam Gaudette.  Minnesota retained an additional 25%, receiving a 2025 fourth-round pick for their troubles along with prospect Josh Pillar.  The swap certainly bolsters Toronto’s depth down the middle which is particularly important with the Maple Leafs lined up with Tampa Bay and Boston as their potential first two opponents.  It is, however, a bit of a high price tag when you consider that O’Reilly had just 19 points in 40 games prior to the swap, well below his norms.  Both O’Reilly and Acciari are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer but Toronto is certainly going all-in while St. Louis now has three first-round picks at their disposal as they look to rebuild.

Staying In Los Angeles: The Kings have locked up a young blueliner for the long haul as they’ve inked Mikey Anderson to an eight-year, $33MM contract extension that will go through the 2030-31 campaign.  The 23-year-old is logging nearly 22 minutes per game this season and while he doesn’t put up a ton of points (his 13 this season is already a career high), he plays an important role on the penalty kill and there’s still certainly time for him to improve.  As long as Anderson stays in the top four for Los Angeles, this contract should age well.

Toews Out Indefinitely: There were set to be questions about Jonathan Toews and if he’d agree to be traded by the deadline with Chicago firmly in a rebuild.  However, he revealed that he is still dealing with symptoms of Long COVID and Chronic Immune Response Syndrome and, after consulting with team doctors, he has elected to take a step back and focus on getting healthy.  He isn’t necessarily out for the season but the decision has now been made that he will not be traded in the coming days.  Toews has spent his entire 15-year NHL career with the Blackhawks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Deadline Primer: Montreal Canadiens

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Halfway through February, the trade deadline looms and is just a few weeks away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Montreal Canadiens.

This season was supposed to be another transition one for Montreal after finishing last in 2021-22.  While the team has a few more points than some may have expected, they remain a team that’s squarely in the middle of a rebuild so that has gone as planned.

What hasn’t gone as planned is their injury situation.  The Canadiens are missing numerous regulars at the moment including a pair of veterans that were perceived as their top trade assets.  A return to action for those players in the next ten days or so could get them back on the radar but otherwise, it could potentially be a much quieter deadline for them than originally expected.

Record

23-29-4, 8th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$4.54MM in LTIR relief, 0/3 retention slots used, 46/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2023: FLA 1st, MTL 1st, MTL 2nd, MTL 3rd, MTL 4th, PIT 4th, VEG 4th, CGY 5th, MTL 5th, MTL 6th, MTL 7th
2024: MTL 1st, COL 2nd, MTL 3rd, MTL 4th, MTL 5th, MTL 6th, EDM 7th, MTL 7th

Montreal also has Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick which, through a series of conditions, could transfer in 2024 if it falls between 20 and 32 and the Canadiens elect to take it.  It could take until 2026 to be conveyed.

Trade Chips

All season long, Sean Monahan has been an expected trade chip.  When healthy, he is a capable middle-six center that can play both the power play and penalty kill.  The problem is that staying healthy has been a problem.  He suffered a foot injury in early December and was only expected to miss a few weeks originally but it is now two months and counting.  If he can get back playing, there will be some suitors as long as Montreal can retain 50% of his $6.375MM AAV.  However, it’s likely that the draft pick being offered will be a fair bit lower than the Canadiens were originally hoping to get and it would be prudent for them to try to put a condition in there based on games played.  If that’s the case, it’s possible that GM Kent Hughes flips the script and tries to work out a short-term extension with the 28-year-old.

Veteran defenseman Joel Edmundson has also been in trade speculation for a while.  He isn’t a rental as he has another year left on his contract with a $3.5MM AAV, a price tag that’s reasonable for someone that can log 20 minutes a night.  His physicality and ability to kill penalties would also be appealing, as would his playoff experience which includes two runs to the Stanley Cup Final since the 2018-19 campaign.  However, he has been dealing with recurring back injuries and that’s likely to deter someone from giving up a strong return unless he’s able to get back to action soon and be no worse for wear.  This might be a situation where the Canadiens opt to hold onto him for next year and try to get a better return for him as a rental.

Montreal also has a couple of pricey rental veteran forwards in Evgenii Dadonov ($5.5MM) and Jonathan Drouin ($5MM) that they will be willing to move.  Dadonov was traded at the deadline last season but the deal was eventually vetoed due to his no-trade clause and instead, he went to the Canadiens for Shea Weber’s contract last summer.  He has struggled this season (although he has seven points in his last 12 games) and at best, they’d be looking at a late-round pick with salary retention.  Drouin is in a similar situation and has struggled to put the puck in the net; his last goal came on January 1st, 2022.  That said, he has a dozen assists in his last 14 games.

In terms of other forwards with term that could go, Mike Hoffman ($4.5MM through next season) and Joel Armia ($3.4MM through 2024-25) are players they’d likely be willing to move.  However, with them being signed beyond this season, it seems likelier that any move they could make would be a lateral swap for a similar-priced contract, not one to necessarily add pieces for their rebuild.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Paul Byron (LTIR contract), D Chris Wideman

Team Needs

1) Young Goaltending: Carey Price’s playing days are all but over and they have an NHL tandem that isn’t the greatest.  In the prospect pipeline, Cayden Primeau has shown flashes of upside but he’s far from a guarantee to be an NHL netminder.  The Canadiens have some late-round picks performing well at lower levels but they’re a few years away still.  A prospect that’s a bit closer to being NHL-ready would fill in a bit gap in their prospect pool.

2) AHL Help: With Montreal currently missing so many players, their organizational depth is being tested.  If they do move some veterans out, there will be roster spots that need to be filled and if those are covered by players currently in the minors, those spots will then need to be back-filled.  (Alternatively, they could agree to take some expiring veterans back and keep their current players in the minors.)  This isn’t a big priority in the grand scheme of things but with the Canadiens not having a lot of quality trade chips and the likelihood that their heavy lifting will come in the offseason instead, this is something that they can realistically strive for in the next couple of weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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