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Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

After finishing last in the league a year ago, expectations were rather low for the Canadiens heading into the season.  While they played better in the second half of 2021-22 under Martin St. Louis, how would the team fare in his first full campaign?  The end result was not much better although Montreal had significant injuries throughout the year once again.  They’re not at a point where they’re likely to push for a playoff spot but they will still have a few things to get through this offseason.

Decision On Gurianov

When the Canadiens opted to pick up winger Denis Gurianov at the trade deadline instead of a draft pick for Evgenii Dadonov, it looked like Montreal was hoping that they could get him going and that he’d be a multi-season asset for the team.  Of course, with a $2.9MM qualifying offer due in June, they’d need to see some steady play to deem him worthy of that offer.

What they wound up getting, however, was a mixed bag.  The 25-year-old had five goals and three assists in 23 games with his new team, a better performance than how he started the year in Dallas.  Extrapolated over a full season, Gurianov’s numbers with the Canadiens would have been 18 goals and 11 assists; a player that gets close to 20 goals is probably worth that qualifying offer.

However, his game-to-game performance varied significantly to the point where it might be risky to tender him at that rate.  If they feel that way, chances are that other teams will too which probably takes a trade off the table.  At that point, the options are to try to negotiate a cheaper one-year agreement or just outright non-tender him.

Gurianov’s track record suggests there should be some interest in him if he makes it to free agency, just at a price tag below $2.9MM.  He had three straight double-digit goal seasons before this one plus a strong playoff performance in the bubble in 2020.  With that in mind, if the Canadiens go to him with an offer below his qualifier, would he be better off testing the open market anyway?  They have just under a couple of months to figure out what will happen with Gurianov.

Re-Sign Caufield

Cole Caufield had a long-term stay on Montreal’s injured list this season as he missed nearly the final three months of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.  Despite that, he still finished tied for the team lead in goals with 26 in just 46 games.  Even missing basically half the season, he still had a strong platform year heading into restricted free agency for the first time in his career.

Despite needing a new deal, Caufield doesn’t exactly have a lot of NHL experience under his belt, just 123 regular season contests, basically the equivalent of a year and a half worth of games.  That makes it a little harder to find a range of comparables on a long-term contract although the seven-year, $49MM deal that Minnesota gave Matt Boldy earlier this season should provide a general floor of what such a move might cost.  Having said that, it stands to reason that if that deal or something close to it was an option for Montreal, an agreement would be in place already.  It also remains to be seen if they will want to use Nick Suzuki’s $7.85MM AAV as an internal cap in discussions.

At a time when many teams are considerably more aggressive than they used to be in terms of bypassing bridge contracts in favor of long-term pacts, it’s possible that the pendulum swings back the other way this summer.  With the expectation that the increases to the salary cap should be more significant starting in 2024-25, Caufield might prefer to take a bridge deal and try to work out a long-term agreement in a couple of years when the cap will be higher.

One thing to note here is that Caufield still has five years of RFA eligibility remaining instead of four as he didn’t accrue a season towards free agency when he came out of college and finished up the 2020-21 campaign.  That sets up a scenario where a bridge agreement could be as long as four years.  In that situation, his camp might push for the type of deal that Dallas winger Jason Robertson received, a four-year contract with a $7.75MM AAV.  Something that is also worth noting is that the two players share the same agent, Pat Brisson.  Without salary arbitration rights, this negotiation could take a while.

Utilize Cap Space

The Canadiens have been capped out the last couple of years but have some pricey contracts coming off the books in Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Sean Monahan ($6.375MM) while Paul Byron and his $3.4MM will also be cleared after the winger was on LTIR all season long.  While Caufield will take up a big chunk of those savings, he’s the only RFA of note that Montreal has.

That at least gives them the option to look to add a player or two in a trade or on the open market; it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to bring Monahan back on a one-year deal as he had fit in rather well before injuries ended his year prematurely.  Alternatively, they’re in a position to potentially look to do what they did with Monahan and take on a contract while being compensated with a draft pick or prospect for doing so.  Assuming they’re willing to go deep into LTIR again with Carey Price’s $10.5MM deal, they might have a couple of opportunities to do so.

Clear Some Clutter

One thing that rebuilding teams typically like to do is create some opportunities for younger players but the Canadiens have quite a few veterans that it could be suggested are taking up some spots.  Wingers Mike Hoffman (one year, $4.5MM) and Joel Armia (two years, $3.4MM) have underachieved while veteran blueliner Joel Edmundson (one year, $3.5MM) is coming off a down year and plays on the left side of the back end, a side that Montreal has a lot of depth at already.

Moving one or two of these players out would open up some roster spots, either for a prospect like Rafael Harvey-Pinard to push for a full-time spot or, if they do take on an unwanted contract, a spot will be needed for that player.  There’s definitely some risk in moving out some depth on a team that has dealt with plenty of injuries the last two seasons but it’s still an avenue they’d be wise to look into.

Back at the trade deadline, GM Kent Hughes acknowledged that he purposely opted to keep one salary retention slot open to give them some more trade options at the draft.  (Salary retention slots used on players on expiring contracts don’t clear until July 1st.)  It stands to reason that this retention slot could be used to try to move out one of these veterans before free agency opens up in July.  Accordingly, the Canadiens could be a team to keep an eye on when it comes to the trade market in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2023 Calder Trophy Finalists Announced

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This week, the NHL is revealing the finalists for its end-of-season awards.  On Wednesday, the Calder Trophy was front and center.  The league revealed that the finalists for its top rookie are Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner, Sabres defenseman Owen Power, and Kraken center Matthew Beniers.  The award is voted on by members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

Skinner came into this season as the presumptive backup behind Jack Campbell, Edmonton’s big summer signing to help shore up their goaltending.  However, it didn’t take long for him to start pushing for playing time, eventually taking over as the starter.  That helped him earn an All-Star nod midseason.  Skinner led all rookie netminders in victories with 29 and games played with 50 while ranking second among qualifying rookies (who had at least 25 GP) with a 2.75 and a .914 SV%.  While his playoff performance doesn’t count in voting which is done at the end of the season, he has started all six games for the Oilers who kick off their second-round series tonight against Vegas.  He’s looking to become the first goalie to win the award since Steve Mason did so in 2008-09.

Power, the first-overall selection in 2021, got his feet wet in the NHL down the stretch last season but 2022-23 was his first full NHL campaign.  It was an impressive one for the 20-year-old as he led all freshman rearguards in scoring with 35 points in 79 games.  Power also logged nearly 24 minutes a night, ranking him second on the team behind Rasmus Dahlin and inside the top 20 league-wide among all players, not just rookies.  Buffalo’s last winner of the Calder Trophy was defenseman Tyler Myers back in 2009-10.

As for Beniers, he was the second-overall pick in 2022 and followed the same path as Power, playing late last season but seeing his first full NHL campaign in 2022-23.  The 20-year-old led all rookies in scoring with 24 goals and 33 assists in 80 games while ranking fourth among first-year forwards in ATOI at just over 17 minutes a night.  Beniers only recorded one penalty all season, making him just the fourth player in NHL history to play in at least 80 games and have two penalty minutes or fewer.  He’ll be looking to become the first player from an expansion franchise to win the Calder Trophy within his team’s first two seasons since Peter Stastny (Quebec) won back in 1980-81.

The winner of the award will be revealed at the NHL Awards ceremony on June 26th.  Meanwhile, the finalists for the Norris Trophy are up next to be announced on Thursday.

San Jose Sharks Sign Valtteri Pulli

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May 3: While “soon” may be a relative term, Pulli still ended up in a San Jose uniform. The Sharks made the contract official today, announcing a two-year contract for the Finn. PuckPedia reports Pulli’s deal carries a cap hit of $950,000.

March 19: Last month, it was reported that free agent defenseman Valtteri Pulli was receiving interest from several teams.  Now that his season in Finland has ended, discussions on an NHL deal can pick up.  Sasha Huttunen of Ilta Sanomat reports that the Sharks are one of the teams interested in the blueliner, going as far as to suggest that a contract already could be done.  Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek indicated (video link) the same, noting that the deal should be made official soon.

The 22-year-old just wrapped up his first full campaign at Finland’s top level, picking up a respectable 17 points in 53 games while logging nearly 18 minutes a night of playing time.  It’s also worth noting that Pulli stands 6’6 which was sure to intrigue some scouts, especially since he has shown that he can hold his own in the SM-liiga.

It’s worth noting that Pulli has another year left on his contract with TPS.  As a result, if Pulli doesn’t crack the NHL roster of whomever he signs with next season – the Sharks or otherwise – he will have to be loaned back to Finland for the 2023-24 campaign.  He will still burn a year off his entry-level deal in that situation, one that will only be for two seasons due to his age.

Five Key Stories: 4/24/23 – 4/30/23

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The month of April has come to an end with the bulk of the first round now concluded.  Meanwhile, off the ice, there was some news of note around the hockey world which is recapped in our key stories.

Hallander Signs In Sweden: Penguins prospect Filip Hallander has shown some promise in his young career after being drafted in the second round in 2018.  The 22-year-old has seen limited NHL action in his two North American seasons but that will be it for a while as Hallander signed a five-year contract with Timra in Sweden.  Pittsburgh can tender him a qualifying offer to keep his rights but since he will be an unrestricted free agent when his deal is up in 2028, there won’t be much value in holding those rights.  It’s certainly a disappointing outcome for the Penguins as one of their more intriguing prospects has ended his time with the team much earlier than expected.

Braun Retires: After a tough season with the Flyers that saw him spend time as a healthy scratch and on the wing, defenseman Justin Braun has opted to not test the open market this summer and instead has called it a career, announcing his retirement.  The 36-year-old hangs up his skates following a 13-year career spanning over 800 regular season appearances in the NHL plus another 119 playoff games with the Sharks, Rangers, and Flyers.  Braun was never a big point producer (he finishes just one shy of 200) but was a reliable defensive defender in his prime that could kill penalties and provide a physical presence while playing around 20 minutes a night.

Cogliano Injury: Andrew Cogliano’s playoffs have come to an early end as the veteran suffered a fractured neck on a hit from Seattle winger Jordan Eberle in the sixth game of their series.  The 35-year-old has been a reliable bottom-six forward throughout the year, chipping in with ten goals during the season.  He has had a similar role for the bulk of his career which spans more than 1,200 games with five different teams over 16 years.  Eberle received a minor penalty on the play and no further supplemental discipline, something that couldn’t be said for Cogliano’s teammate Cale Makar who received a one-game suspension for his hit on Jared McCann earlier in the week.

Offer Sheet Thresholds: It’s very rare that a player actually signs an offer sheet but it is a tool that teams have at their disposal if they want to try to use it.  With that in mind, the various compensation tiers were set.  The top rate, one that would see a team surrender four first-round picks, kicks in just past the $10.75MM mark, one that teams will likely want to stay away from while a $6.435MM offer would only cost a team first- and third-round selections.  Of note, the divisor on an offer sheet is five; if an offer sheet is signed that’s longer than five years, the total salary is divided by five to determine the compensation tier.  Also worth noting is that teams must have their own draft picks to sign a player to an offer sheet, they can’t substitute one acquired from another team.

Global Series: Earlier this month, it was confirmed that the NHL would host preseason games in Australia but that’s only part of their international schedule.  There is typically a regular season component and this one will feature four teams this time as Sweden will play host to four games in November.  Toronto, Ottawa, Detroit, and Minnesota will be the four teams participating.  The Red Wings and Wild will each have one home and one away game while the Senators will have both of their contests qualify as home games while both Maple Leafs’ ones will be road affairs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

Expectations were rather low for the Sharks this season as GM Mike Grier signaled that a rebuild was on the way, highlighted by the move that saw Brent Burns go to Carolina.  The team muddled their way through this season and while there were some strong individual performances, San Jose was still near the bottom of the Western Conference.  With them still in teardown mode, their checklist this summer largely revolves around moving out more veterans.

Create Cap Flexibility

Typically, a lot of teams at the bottom of the standings often have cap space at their disposal.  This comes as a result of jettisoning some veterans in favor of using younger players.  That is quite likely the goal for San Jose as well but they’re nowhere near that point yet.

At the moment, assuming the salary cap goes up by $1MM to $83.5MM, the Sharks have about $15MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  They also have upwards of seven spots to fill with that money which doesn’t give them much room to try to go after an impact free agent if they want to expedite things or get involved on the trade front to take on a contract or two while being compensated with draft picks or prospects for doing so.

Grier should also want to keep an eye on 2024-25 this summer as well.  San Jose’s commitments drop to a little under $47MM for that season but that’s with only eight players signed.  Spending less than that amount to sign upwards of 60% of his roster will be difficult, especially if the Upper Limit of the cap jumps that summer, sending salaries upward quicker.  Creating more flexibility for that season is something that will need to be considered as well.

Buyout Decisions

Keeping 2024-25 (and beyond) in mind is likely to impact what San Jose does on the buyout front.  They have several players whose performance could legitimately have them under consideration in defensemen Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Radim Simek plus winger Kevin Labanc.  But doing so adds a lot of dead money to San Jose’s cap when they already have Martin Jones’ buyout on the books through 2027.

Vlasic’s contract has been a bust so far.  He still has three years left on a deal that carries a $7MM AAV which is top-pairing money.  However, the 36-year-old has been more of a third-pairing player in recent years.  A buyout would free up over $5.5MM next season but the structure of the contract means the cap savings would only be $2.8MM in 2024-25 while overall, nearly $16MM in dead cap charges would hit San Jose’s books over six seasons.  That’s a high price to pay someone not to play for you anymore and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier wait at least one more year to make the charges a little less drastic.

As for Simek and Labanc, both are entering the final year of their deals so there is no long-term cap consideration at play here.  Simek’s buyout would save $1.3MM on the cap next season while adding $650K in 2024-25.  Meanwhile, Labanc’s would free up nearly $4MM next season but add almost $2MM on the books for 2024-25.  Both were scratched at times this year and could see their spots filled by someone younger and cheaper.

Individually, there’s a case to be made for all three players to be bought out but adding more dead money to the books for 2024-25 when they’re going to have so many spots to fill will have to be considered as well.  Will that wind up being too much of a deterrent?  They have a couple of months to figure that out.

Decide Karlsson’s Future

It’s not often that a 32-year-old player has a career year.  But that’s what happened to defenseman Erik Karlsson this season.  A year after managing 35 points in 50 games, his numbers took off as the veteran tallied 25 goals and 76 assists to lead all NHL blueliners in scoring while making him a contender for his third career Norris Trophy.  In doing so, Karlsson’s name came up in trade speculation although no deal materialized.

Of course, there’s a very good reason for that.  Karlsson has four years remaining on his deal which carries an AAV of $11.5MM, the highest given to a defenseman in NHL history.  In a salary cap world, that’s a hard deal to move at any time but especially in-season.  But now it’s the offseason when deals are a little easier to make.  That will bring Karlsson’s future back to the forefront.

On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine Karlsson’s value getting any higher than it might be now.  On the other hand, with that contract, his trade value might not be all that high.  It’s a contract that Grier will have to pay down to some extent; doing so would encumber two of their three retained salary slots through the 2025-26 campaign, not to mention costing millions in actual salary dollars for a player not to play for them.

A year ago, it looked like Karlsson would have been in the mix for the most untradeable contract in the league.  Now, it looks like they’ll have an opportunity to get some value for him, although if the deal winds up being like the Burns one, a good chunk of the return might wind up simply being cap space.

Goaltending Upgrade

While it might seem counter-intuitive for a rebuilding team to look for a goaltending upgrade, getting a starting netminder has been on San Jose’s to-do list for a while since Jones failed to live up to his old deal.  Former GM Doug Wilson hoped he addressed the vacancy when he picked up Kaapo Kahkonen last year but the 26-year-old has played to a 3.64 GAA and a .890 SV% since being acquired.  He’s under contract for next season at $2.75MM so he’ll be in the mix but as a pending UFA in 2024, Kahkonen isn’t really a long-term fixture at this point.

James Reimer has been a serviceable veteran backup but he’s set to hit the open market this summer and doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate to return.  Meanwhile, veteran Aaron Dell is a serviceable third-stringer but isn’t a long-term solution at the NHL level either.  He’s also a pending UFA.

In terms of their prospects, Eetu Makiniemi showed some promise with the Barracuda this season but isn’t believed to be a starter in the making.  Strauss Mann held his own in his first taste of the minors but isn’t close to being NHL-ready.  San Jose is hoping Magnus Chrona could be part of the solution eventually but he is only starting his pro career next season and also isn’t close to being in the mix.

If there’s an opportunity to acquire a young netminder with some upside in a trade (perhaps as part of a Karlsson swap), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier try to do that.  Failing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them hand out a multi-year contract to a veteran in July to make sure they have a bit of stability at that position while continuing the search for a longer-term solution.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Red Wings, Offer Sheets, Lafreniere, Swayman, Coyotes, Conn Smythe

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the potential for an offer sheet this summer, Alexis Lafreniere’s future with the Rangers, Jeremy Swayman’s trade value, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: What wizardry does the Golden Knights’ offseason have in store for us?

Rarely has there been a dull summer for Vegas since they joined the league but I think this offseason could be the exception.  They’re not in a spot where they have to dump salary to be compliant with the salary cap.  I’m sure they’d like to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev but depending on what happens with other areas, they might not even need to clear money to make that happen.

A lot of their offseason activity this summer will revolve around Robin Lehner.  Is he able to come back?  If yes, then they might want to look to trim some money if they want to realistically try to keep Barbashev in the fold.  Otherwise, they can put him back on LTIR and use his $5MM.  Some of that will go towards a backup to Logan Thompson (likely Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, or another veteran netminder) but that won’t cost $5MM alone; they can use some of that plus their cap space and try to keep Barbashev that way.

If they do decide they want to move some money out, Alec Martinez is the logical choice.  He’ll be on an expiring deal next season and isn’t the impact defender he was when he first joined the Golden Knights.  Accordingly, his $5.25MM AAV is on the high side.  They probably won’t be able to clear that full deal without either paying part of it down or giving up other assets but they could take back a forward making a bit less to fill one of the vacancies that will be created in free agency.

Vegas likes to chase down the big deal, I get it.  But there isn’t an elite free agent out there and let’s face it, they probably don’t have the prospect pool and draft capital to make the top offer in the bidding for an impact player on the trade market.  Years of moving picks and prospects will do that to a team.  So perhaps this summer will be a quiet one for Vegas, one that sees them lose a few players but keep the core largely intact.  In other words, the type of summer that befits a strong contender.

gowings2008: What are some 2nd line center options for Detroit heading into next season?

I have some bad news for any team looking for help down the middle this summer – there isn’t much in free agency to get excited about.  Is Max Domi worthy of a long-term commitment to play on the second line?  Maybe but I’m not sure Detroit is the right team to give him that deal.  Has J.T. Compher shown enough to be a legitimate second-liner?  I’m not sold that he’s a 50-point player on the Red Wings.  Ryan O’Reilly (the established veteran, not the Detroit center prospect with the same name) could fit as a short-term option and fits the bridge veteran approach GM Steve Yzerman has taken with some of his pickups in recent years so perhaps he’s an option.  Assuming that Boston’s middlemen re-sign or retire, those three are the top options on the open market.

On the trade front, is the time right for Detroit to push a bunch of chips in to make a big splash and add an impact center?  That’s not typically what a non-playoff team does so I’m not sure they really are too active on this front.  Without many long-term commitments on the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if they kicked the tires on Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia, especially if the Flyers are willing to pay that deal down a little bit.  Then that becomes another bridge veteran approach, someone that can hold a spot while they hope to draft and develop a future impact center.

Honestly, I think the answer to this question is the same player as this year, Andrew Copp.  I like him more as a third-liner but I don’t think Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno are true top-six options at this point in time.  As a result, I think it’s Copp’s spot to lose.

Josh2831: Any players you see that could get a serious offer sheet this summer and could the Predators be the team to make the offer?

Generally speaking, offer sheets are so rare that my answer to a question like this will almost automatically be no.  In most cases, the offer has to be so high above market value to deter the team from matching and when you look at the thresholds, it’s hard to find a price point for a player that the signing team is comfortable with and the other team won’t match.  I don’t think anyone goes above the $8.58MM level and unless the player isn’t that good, whichever team is offer sheeted will match.  Frankly, I think the lower end of the market is where there could be so much more activity (in the third-round range or less) but everyone plays nice on that front so I don’t expect anything to happen there either.

But there is one player who could theoretically be a bigger risk to sign an offer sheet, Pierre-Luc Dubois.  He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and if Winnipeg was to match a one-year offer sheet, they wouldn’t be able to trade him.  The Jets would then be faced with accepting the draft pick compensation as a return or walking him straight to the open market in 2024.  And if he really wanted to make it interesting, he’d opt for the top of the grid where the compensation is a first-round pick and a third-rounder ($6.435MM).  Doing so probably leaves money on the table but anything higher than that is a punitive price for the signing team for what’s likely to be a one-year rental and Winnipeg would happily take the picks and run and Dubois shouldn’t want to hurt his potential new team.

At that lower price point, it’s a harder call to make, especially if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff wants to give some of this core group one more chance, perhaps with a couple of changes based on how the playoffs went.  Dubois probably wouldn’t sign a multi-year offer as doing so means Winnipeg could match and he’d have to stay longer than he might want to, assuming his end goal is still to move elsewhere.

By the way, I don’t think it would be Montreal, his speculative desired destination, giving him that offer sheet as with where they are in their rebuild, moving an unprotected first-round pick isn’t a good idea, especially if they think they could get him in free agency a year later.  For a contender with some cap space though, that pick is going to be much lower in the first round and such a move becomes more justifiable.

Now, for Nashville specifically, my answer is a question back to you.  Why would they get in on an offer sheet?  They’re a team that appears to be in transition right now, the type of team that shouldn’t be willing to part with unprotected draft picks to sign a player at above-market value.  I don’t see the incentive for them to get in on any offer sheets this summer.

Jasen: With the Rangers being in win-now mode, and the Canadiens being in a rebuild, any chance at all that the Canadiens might be able to trade for Lafreniere? And if yes, would a 1st and A prospect be enough to get the deal done?

Philosophically speaking, a team that’s rebuilding probably shouldn’t be parting with first-round picks but Montreal technically did last year, flipping the first-rounder they got for Alexander Romanov to get Kirby Dach.  So, I suppose it’s possible they could kick the tires, especially since they have an extra pick in the first round in June.  I don’t think they’d go that high with an offer, however, considering he hasn’t been able to consistently crack New York’s top six and the fact that Montreal isn’t at the point yet where they should be moving their top prospects or their first-round pick which will be no worse than seventh overall.  An offer that has Florida’s first-round pick this year (assuming it lands at 17th overall) and a couple of ‘B’ prospects (or equivalent pick) is around as high as I think they’d go right now.  And unless New York has soured on him that much, I don’t think they should take that offer.

As for the Rangers’ side of things, I don’t think the idea of moving Lafreniere is necessarily a bad one.  They’re going to have some tough decisions to make this summer from a cap perspective and while they could try to bridge the 21-year-old to keep the short-term cost down, it’s only kicking the cap problem down the road for a year or two.  Are they better off taking a futures-based return now and using that money to put on a long-term K’Andre Miller contract instead?  I think there’s a case to be made for that approach, especially if New York is hesitant in thinking that Lafreniere will break out and become that top-level talent that made him the first-overall selection back in 2020.  Moving on that quickly from a top pick would sting but if they can get a first-round pick plus an ‘A’ prospect like your proposal suggests, it might be the right move for them to make.  I just don’t see the Canadiens being the team to offer the top package.

SkidRowe: If he’s too expensive to re-sign, what can the Bruins get for Jeremy Swayman in the offseason?

Whenever I get a goalie trade value question, I usually take the answer that comes up in my head and dial it down a peg or two since recent history suggests that goalie trade values aren’t very good.  But I’m not going to do so here.

Here are two quick stat lines to consider before reading further.

Swayman: 88 GP, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%
Mystery Player: 98 GP, 2.20 GAA, .927 SV%

The mystery player is Cory Schneider and those are his career numbers at the time he was traded at the draft back in 2013 in a deal that saw Vancouver pick up the ninth-overall pick.  Schneider’s numbers are a bit better but Swayman is younger and has more team control (three years) than Schneider did at the time (two years).  If I’m Boston GM Don Sweeney, a first-round pick in that range is what I’m looking for.  Pittsburgh at 14 is the only team that stands out so an equivalent drafted prospect could also be an option, if not potentially preferable if they’re looking to stay in the mix next season.

Granted, there are many teams that eschew the idea of drafting a goalie in the first round.  But there’s a difference between drafting one and getting one who has already shown himself to be an above-average goaltender.  At a time when a lot of teams are looking for quality goaltending, a young, controllable option with an early good track record sounds pretty appealing, even if it costs a first-rounder or equivalent prospect.  It has been a while since a goalie has brought that type of return but I think Swayman can be the exception.

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Colorado Avalanche Recall Brad Hunt

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04/30/23: After a short stay on the Eagles’ roster, Hunt has been recalled back to the Avalanche. According to the Athletic’s Peter Baugh, Hunt could be an option to enter head coach Jared Bednar’s lineup tonight for Game Seven against the Seattle Kraken.

04/29/23: Following their victory over Seattle on Friday to extend their first-round series, the Avalanche made a roster move, assigning defenseman Brad Hunt to Colorado of the AHL, per the AHL’s transactions log.

The 34-year-old is no stranger to being sent to the minors this season as this is the seventh time it has happened.  In between those assignments, Hunt got into 47 games with the Avs this season, picking up four goals and six assists in limited minutes as he averaged just over 11 minutes a night.  He has been quite productive in his first season of AHL action since 2016-17, tallying seven goals and 14 helpers in just 24 contests.

While it may seem odd that a team who was missing a defenseman (Josh Manson) due to injury last night would then turn around and send a blueliner down, this was done at least in part for waiver-related purposes.

Hunt cleared waivers back on April 1st, resetting his clock.  Players can’t spend more than 30 days cumulative on an NHL roster without needing to pass through waivers again and days in the playoffs do count as it is part of their playing season.  Accordingly, Colorado is sending Hunt down now to keep him eligible to play with the Eagles for their playoffs run, rather than running the risk of losing him if they had to waive him to send him down after the Avalanche get eliminated, an outcome that could come as soon as Sunday if they aren’t able to win in the series-deciding game against the Kraken.

Jets Notes: Hellebuyck, Dubois, Ehlers, Bowness

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The future of Connor Hellebuyck in Winnipeg is one of the things many will be keeping an eye on this offseason.  The 29-year-old had a standout showing this season, posting a 2.49 GAA with a .920 SV% while leading the NHL in games played.  He’s eligible to sign a contract extension this summer but indicated in his end-of-season media availability (video link) that he hasn’t yet given any thought to signing another deal with the Jets and discussions with the team on that front have not started.  Hellebuyck indicated that his primary goal remains to go after a Stanley Cup so if Winnipeg opts for a rebuild this summer after their disappointing playoff exit, it would be surprising if Hellebuyck chose to sign an extension.  Regardless of what team he signs that next contract with, he’ll be getting a sizable raise from his current $6.166MM AAV.

More from Winnipeg:

  • In his availability (video link), Pierre-Luc Dubois remained non-committal about his future with the team, instead stating that he hasn’t given much thought to his future just yet. The 24-year-old, who acknowledged that he dealt with hip trouble this season, has been in trade speculation going back to last summer amid reports that he thought he could be moved to Montreal at the draft.  Dubois accepted his $6MM qualifying offer last summer and will be in his final year of restricted free agency with arbitration eligibility in July.
  • Winger Nikolaj Ehlers indicated in his session (video link) that it’s possible that he’ll be able to suit up at the World Championships next month despite missing all but one game in their series against Vegas. He declined to disclose the nature of the injury that kept him out for more than two weeks.  Ehlers would certainly be a key addition to a Denmark squad that will be missing a few of its NHL players at least with those teams having already moved onto the second round.
  • After a short and blunt presser following their elimination game, some wondered if head coach Rick Bowness would stay on for next season. He told the media today (video link) that his intention is to remain behind the bench in Winnipeg but declined to comment on what changes to the team might be needed, instead deferring to GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.  The 68-year-old has one more season plus a team option remaining on his contract after joining the Jets last summer.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated quickly.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The fact that the Blackhawks struggled this season should have come as no surprise.  They unloaded several key players last summer and continued that at the trade deadline before announcing they won’t be trying to re-sign Jonathan Toews for next year and beyond.  GM Kyle Davidson has largely a blank canvas to work with but with the team still firmly committed to the rebuild, the to-do list isn’t the biggest beyond adding more future assets.  Even so, there are some decisions that will need to be made in the coming months.

Decide Athanasiou’s Fate

When Chicago signed Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou to one-year, $3MM deals mere minutes into free agency back in July, they both seemed like strong candidates to be moved elsewhere at the deadline.  While that was the case with Domi, that didn’t happen with Athanasiou.  Instead, he stayed with them and did well down the stretch while sometimes playing alongside one of their top prospects in Lukas Reichel.

Accordingly, would it be worth it for the Blackhawks to look into extending the 28-year-old on a short-term deal?  They’re not going to be able to ice a lineup of strictly youngsters as there is a cap floor to be met (more on that later) and if Athanasiou is comfortable with the situation in Chicago, perhaps he’s someone worth keeping around.

However, with 20 goals and 20 assists, Athanasiou has likely built up enough value to command at least a two-year deal somewhere this time around.  With that in mind, giving Athanasiou another contract might take him off the table for being traded, at least in the short term, especially if they have to give him a bit above market value to convince him to avoid going to a team that is more interested in short-term success.

Assess Murphy’s Market

The list of proven veterans that the Blackhawks have moved out over the last year is quite impressive to the point where it’s fair to wonder if they have anyone left that could realistically be traded.  Seth Jones and his $9.5MM contract likely won’t be in play due to his contract.  However, another veteran blueliner could realistically find himself in trade talks, Connor Murphy.

The 30-year-old signed his current contract just over a year and a half ago with the hopes that Chicago would be looking to push for short-term success.  Clearly, that’s not the plan now.  Murphy has three years left on that deal with a $4.4MM cap hit, a reasonable price for someone that typically logs around 20 minutes a game, kills penalties, and plays a steady, defensive role.  Frankly, there’s a role for him on the Blackhawks to work with some of their younger blueliners but in a defensive market that isn’t the deepest in terms of free agent or trade options, Chicago should be looking into what they can get for him, especially with right-shot players being in high demand.

Back at the trade deadline, Chicago picked up a first-round pick for Jake McCabe, a blueliner who carries a similar cap hit as Murphy with term left on his deal.  It took them eating half the contract but considering they don’t have many tradable assets with high price tags at the moment, it could be defensible for them to consider doing so here as well, especially if it helps them land another quality draft pick.  One option available to Chicago now that might not be during the season is the ability to take back a pricey contract which could also help defray the cost of Murphy’s deal if the Blackhawks don’t want to retain any money.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that they have to move Murphy this summer, assuming they can overcome his 10-team no-trade protection.  Perhaps the smarter play is to wait until the trade deadline and try to do a McCabe-like deal again.  At a minimum, Davidson needs to see what trade options are out there for the veteran defender over the next couple of months.

Goaltending Decisions

On the surface, it seems like Chicago’s goaltending situation is sorted out.  Petr Mrazek, by virtue of his contract, will be one of the netminders with one of Arvid Soderblom or Jaxson Stauber serving as the backup.  But with how much Mrazek struggled this season, not to mention how things went for him in Toronto, should he really be guaranteed a roster spot for 2023-24?

Alex Stalock was one of the feel-good stories around the NHL this season, recovering from myocarditis that limited him severely the last two seasons to post a .908 SV%, an above-average rate on a team that wasn’t exactly a model of defensive play.  He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer and with the need to get at least one of their youngsters some NHL action, it’s understandable to think he won’t be back.  But if Mrazek isn’t in the picture anymore, would that change things?

Chicago knows they can easily bury Mrazek’s deal in the minors as his struggles will deter any team from picking him up off waivers.  But with the other of Soderblom and Stauber in the picture plus prospect Drew Commesso, would they want Mrazek with Rockford taking away playing time?  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them consider buying him out, a move that would free up about $3MM in cap space next season while adding just under $1.5MM in 2024-25, a price tag that should be of no concern to them given their cap situation.

Are they better off parting ways with Mrazek this summer to try to keep Stalock around or to sign a different veteran netminder that can handle some starts altogether?  It’s a choice they’ll want to make by the late-June buyout deadline.

Spend, Spend, Spend

At the moment, the Blackhawks have over $40MM in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming that the cap goes up by $1MM as planned.  And that space would only go up with a Mrazek buyout.  Now, you might be thinking to yourself that Chicago won’t be a cap team and you’re probably right.  But there is a Lower Limit to the cap that everyone has to get to.  They are presently around $20MM below what that mark is likely to be next season.

Yes, they have a few roster spots to fill with that money and if they re-sign Athanasiou, that will take up a chunk of it.  But even with that, they have a long way to go and filling those spots with low-cost prospects isn’t going to get them close to the minimum spending.  While they’re clearly a team that isn’t gearing up for a playoff run anytime soon, they’re effectively going to be buyers to an extent.

Davidson has two possible avenues to work with here.  He can do like he did with Domi and Athanasiou last summer, signing them to ‘sign and flip’ deals that will see them moved at or around the trade deadline for futures.  Alternatively, with so many teams expected to be tight to the Upper Limit, Chicago is well-positioned to take on an unwanted contract or two (or more) while adding draft picks and prospects for doing so.  While we know they’ll be sellers next February, expect the Blackhawks to be adding some veterans to their roster in the coming months to help get them cap-compliant while setting themselves up to add future assets as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Atlantic Notes: Copp, Subban, Bruins

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Rosters for the upcoming World Championships are likely to be revealed in the coming days but Red Wings center Andrew Copp won’t on the one for Team USA, notes Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.  Copp decided to decline the offer to let his body heal up, allowing him to be fully healthy heading into training camp.  Although the 28-year-old played in every game this season, he missed training camp due to his recovery from offseason surgery which resulted in a slow start and a quieter-than-expected campaign that saw him score just nine goals.  Clearly, Copp is hoping that a more traditional offseason and a full camp will result in him being more productive in 2023-24.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • If the Sabres intend to go with a young goalie tandem next season in Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, veteran Eric Comrie would likely be the odd one out. With that in mind, Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News suggests that Buffalo would be wise to re-sign Malcolm Subban this offseason to hedge as insurance in case Comrie is either traded or cleared off waivers.  While there is definitely an upside to carrying two promising youngsters in goal, it stands to reason that they should have at least one veteran in the fold.  Subban had a 2.94 GAA with a .903 SV% in 39 regular season games with Rochester.
  • After a tough showing last night against Florida, some have wondered if Boston might opt to make a goalie change heading into Sunday’s series-deciding game. Speaking with reporters today including Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic (Twitter link), head coach Jim Montgomery declined to say who will get the nod.  Linus Ullmark, the expected Vezina Trophy winner, has allowed 10 goals on 57 shots over the last two games but while they have a more than capable backup in Jeremy Swayman, the 24-year-old has just three minutes of game action since the regular season ended two-and-a-half weeks ago.

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