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Ducks Rumors

Ducks Notes: Eakins, Getzlaf, Heinen, Tracey

March 8, 2021 at 7:17 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 8 Comments

The Anaheim Ducks are off to another poor start this season, currently sitting in last place in the West Division with the fourth-worst record in the NHL. They aren’t trending in the right direction either; at 1-6-3, no team in the league has been as bad as the Ducks over their past ten games. Although head coach Dallas Eakins is only in his second season with Anaheim, there is still growing scrutiny of his failures so far and speculation as to his job security. After all, Eakins was brought in to lead the rebuild in Anaheim due to his past success with young players, yet many of the young Ducks continue to fall short of expectations. Eakins’ conservative style has also stymied the team’s offensive potential, as they sit second-to-last in the NHL in scoring with just 2.16 goals per game this season.

However, in the eyes of his general manager there is no need for Eakins to worry about his job just yet. Speaking with the media, Ducks GM Bob Murray gave a firm vote of confidence to his head coach. “I’ve got total confidence in Dallas,” Murray said. “I think he’s doing a pretty good job right now with everything that’s going on. I have no issues whatsoever. I have no problem with Dallas.” Despite this emphatic note of support, Murray did state later in the press conference that he expected the team to better this season. So if the blame does not lie with Eakins, could it fall on Murray? Many believe that the veteran GM could also be in danger of losing his job. If that is the case, Eakins’ own job security may only be as good as that of the man who hired him. Something has to change in Anaheim and ownership may soon step in and make changes.

  • As for one major change that Ducks fans are hoping to avoid, Murray shared some news that they will find comforting. With rumors floating around that long-time captain Ryan Getzlaf could be traded, Murray made no qualms about his thoughts on that matter. “I’m tired of hearing this… how his name is out there,” Murray said, “the only way Ryan Getzlaf would go anywhere is if he came to me and said, ’Bob, can you try and trade me to a contender?’ As an impending free agent who would be a desirable rental even at his advanced age, there is certainly value in moving Getzlaf. However, the career Duck has earned the right to decide his own future. According to Murray, the two sides will wait to see how Getzlaf feels both physically and mentally about continuing his career and doing so in Anaheim, but he calls the relationship “wonderful” and is open to an extension if Getzlaf is.
  • One player who seems likely to be traded or, if not, unlikely to return next season is Danton Heinen. Still only in his first season with the Ducks, Heinen’s name did not emerge as a trade candidate until a string of healthy scratches and then a very public negotiation between the Ducks and Vancouver Canucks that included he and Jake Virtanen. In over a week since that hypothetical deal went viral, Heinen has been scratched in three of the Ducks five games. In the two games he has played, Heinen has been held without a point or even a shot on goal, is a -2, and has seen a notable drop-off in ice time. Heinen simply does not seem to be a fit in Anaheim and as an impending free agent will see his time with the team come to an end soon, one way or another. If there is interest in acquiring the winger, who recorded 47 points as a rookie with the Boston Bruins just three years ago, then he will surely be traded. If not, he will walk this summer and have to look for a fresh start elsewhere.
  • A young player who the Ducks will not rush into their rebuild this year is Brayden Tracey. The 2019 first-rounder is under contract and has already played a dozen AHL games this season, but his time in the pros won’t go any further in 2020-21. The San Diego Gulls have announced that Tracey has been reassigned to his junior club, the WHL’s Victoria Royals, to play out the rest of the season. With the Ducks having been criticized for bringing too many of their current top prospects to the NHL before they were ready, they will let Tracey continue to develop against his own peers instead. The 19-year-old forward has shown great skill at the junior level, but was held scoreless in the minors and will be grateful to re-discover his scoring touch back in the WHL.

AHL| Anaheim Ducks| Dallas Eakins| Prospects| Vancouver Canucks| WHL Danton Heinen

8 comments

Trade Deadline Primer: Anaheim Ducks

March 5, 2021 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Although we’re not even two months into the season, the trade deadline is just over a month away.  Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make?  We begin our look around the league with the Anaheim Ducks.

It has not been a fun season for Anaheim, to put it lightly.  While they are still in the middle of transitioning to a younger roster, there was some hope that they’d be able to hang around the playoff race with the re-aligned divisions for this season.  That hasn’t happened.  Instead, the struggles from the last few seasons continue to plague them, highlighted by a complete inability to score as they are averaging just over two goals per game this season.  That has put extra pressure on the goaltending and the results haven’t been there which has them squarely in the basement in the West Division.

Record

6-12-5, 8th in West Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

No base cap room, $5.47MM in full-season space using LTIR, 0/3 retention slots used, 50/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2021: ANA 1st, ANA 2nd, ANA 3rd, ANA 4th, ANA 5th, EDM 5th, ANA 6th
2022: ANA 1st, ANA 2nd, ANA 3rd, ANA 4th, ANA 5th, ANA 6th, ANA 7th*

*- This pick technically belongs to Edmonton until the end of the season as part of a 2020 trade involving defenseman Joel Persson.  The Oilers get to keep the pick if Persson plays in 25 NHL games this season but with Persson in the SHL and not on an NHL contract, that won’t happen.  However, the pick remains encumbered for now and while the Ducks will get it back, it cannot be dealt at this time.

Trade Chips

Danton Heinen’s name came up in recent discussions with Vancouver in a deal that ultimately didn’t make it to the finish line for financial reasons, a particular caveat that is basically going to be the focal point of every trade that does or doesn’t get made over the next five-plus weeks.  The change of scenery last year from Boston was supposed to spark him offensively but that hasn’t happened as he has just six goals and four assists in 27 games with Anaheim including last season, making him a candidate for another change of scenery.  The 25-year-old is a pending restricted free agent with arbitration rights and is owed a $2.775MM qualifying offer (just below his $2.8MM AAV) and at this point, he looks like a non-tender candidate.  Whether it’s moving him for another player making similar money or, frankly, for anything of value, Heinen is someone that should be on the move.

Ryan Getzlaf highlights their list of pending unrestricted free agents but it’s hard to see him moving.  First, making the money work due to his $8.25MM AAV would be tricky and the veteran doesn’t seem to have much interest in leaving at this point.  Ben Hutton ($950K) could be someone to watch for though.  He has just one assist in 17 games this season but is logging more than 18 minutes a night on the back end and could be an affordable addition for a playoff-bound team that’s looking to add some injury insurance.  If he’s able to return by the deadline, Carter Rowney ($1.133MM) could be a fourth line upgrade for a team as well.

One wildcard in this market has to be Rickard Rakell.  A few years ago, the 27-year-old looked like he was on a steal of a deal with an AAV of just $3.789MM.  However, his production has tailed off sharply since his 2017-18 69-point campaign and has dipped even farther this year with just three goals in 23 games.  They wouldn’t be moving him from a position of strength by any stretch but it’s now fair to wonder if he’s in the long-term plans.  With one year left on his contract, his value probably isn’t going to be much higher in the summer and we saw with the failed Heinen trade that GM Bob Murray is open to a player-for-player swap.  Rakell is the type of player that several teams are likely to kick the tires on.

Others to Watch For: F David Backes ($4.5MM, UFA), D Jani Hakanpaa ($750K, UFA)

Team Needs

1) Offensive upgrades – Anaheim has a total of two players that have at least five goals this season and one of them (Isac Lundestrom) barely got there after getting a hat trick on Monday.  Even though they’re in a rebuild/transition stage, they need some veteran offensive production and if they move players like Heinen or Rakell, it will probably be for veterans making similar money and not futures.

2) Unsigned assets – If the Ducks want to get a longer look at top prospects Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale, it means they’ll be activating the first year of their contracts, giving them no flexibility with regards to the 50-contract limit.  The college free agent market figures to be more intriguing this year with players getting a shot at playing for six weeks or so compared to the handful of games that they typically get.  It’s a good year for Anaheim to shop in that market but they need to have some available contract slots to be able to do so.  Moving signed players like Hutton or Hakanpaa for a pick or unsigned prospect would certainly help in that regard.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Anaheim Ducks| Deadline Primer 2021 Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

5 comments

Brendan Guhle Clears Waivers

March 5, 2021 at 11:05 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 12 Comments

March 5: Perhaps surprisingly, Guhle has cleared waivers and has been assigned to the minor leagues. The 23-year-old will remain in the Ducks organization and have a chance to get his game back on track following his recent injury.

March 4: The Anaheim Ducks have placed a surprising name on waivers today, as Brendan Guhle is available to the rest of the league according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The 23-year-old defenseman must be healthy enough to return from his recent stint on long-term injured reserve, meaning to place him on the taxi squad or send him to the minor leagues, he’ll need to clear waivers.

Guhle certainly isn’t a star, but it should raise a few eyebrows in front offices around the league to see him on waivers today. The 51st overall pick in 2015, he has 59 games under his belt at the NHL level and has recorded 14 points. An all-around option that has shown flashes of real NHL potential—including playing three games in the 2016-17 season as a 19-year-old for the Buffalo Sabres—he also happens to come locked up at an $800K cap hit through next season.

Just two years ago, Guhle was a big part of the return for Brandon Montour, when the latter was shipped from Anaheim to Buffalo. It seems now that the Ducks feel comfortable risking him, given the other young options in the system.

For a rebuilding team or even a contender dealing with injuries, claiming Guhle would be more than reasonable though. Jarred Tinordi and Mark Friedman have both been claimed recently and neither one is a clear upgrade (at least in certain areas) over the young Duck.

If Guhle does clear, he’ll be able to get on the ice again with the San Diego Gulls and continue to work his way back from injury. In five games on a rehab stint, he recorded zero points.

Anaheim Ducks| Waivers Brendan Guhle| Elliotte Friedman| Taxi Squad

12 comments

Hampus Lindholm Out Six Weeks With Fractured Wrist

March 4, 2021 at 5:49 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

If the Anaheim Ducks had any intention of trading defenseman Hampus Lindholm before this season’s deadline, that is now unlikely to happen. The team has announced that Lindholm suffered a fractured left wrist on Saturday against the Vegas Golden Knights and has been placed on the injured reserve. The good news is that Lindholm is expected to make a full recovery and will return to action before the end of the regular season, barring any setbacks. The bad news is that he will not be evaluated for a possible return for approximately six weeks, at which point the trade deadline will have already expired.

Lindholm, 27, is nothing if not consistent. The Ducks defender plays at a high level year in and year out with little deviation, able to eat major minutes and provide solid defense and competent puck possession. That reliability is worth immense value and for an Anaheim team that struggles to get consistent effort out of too many of its players, it is possible that the team was not planning to part with Lindholm. Nevertheless, with a shallow and unimpressive market for rental defensemen this season, Lindholm is among a group of blue liners with one year remaining on their current contracts who have been discussed as trade targets for contenders this year.

With the Ducks struggling again this season, it seems likely that the team would have at least entertained offers for Lindholm as the deadline grew closer. After all, Anaheim currently sits in last place in the West Division and have lost eight straight games. Now they are losing their top defensemen for upwards of 20+ games in a 56-game season. The Ducks have little to play for this season and as they continue to evaluate the best way to continue their rebuild, a Lindholm trade may have come to fruition. However, a move is unlikely now due to the unknown value of a recovering Lindholm to a contender down the stretch and in the postseason. Perhaps the injury came at just the right time for the Ducks to be able to justify keeping one of the best and most reliable players.

Anaheim Ducks| Injury| Vegas Golden Knights Hampus Lindholm

3 comments

Trade Rumors: Market, Virtanen-Heinen, NMCs, Red Wings

March 1, 2021 at 7:46 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 15 Comments

While the NHL Trade Deadline is exactly six weeks away and trade whispers have grown louder in recent days, a number of sources warn that it may be a mistake to expect an active trade market. The factors at play are what one might expect: the flat salary cap and clubs’ financial limitations as well as the U.S.-Canada border restrictions. Speaking on Sportsnet 960 in Calgary today, Elliotte Friedman noted that the market is much quieter than recent rumor and speculation has led everyone to believe. He cites the border issue – a mandatory 14-day quarantine for any player heading north – as limiting potential trade partners, but states that finances are an even greater inhibitor. Friedman said that many clubs are not looking to add salary and stress is being placed more on actual dollars than on cap hits. The Athletic’s Craig Custance and Eric Duhatschek take it even one step further, reporting that “few teams have permission to add salary” and noting that some non-contenders have been ordered by ownership to cut salary if at all possible. There is also the issue that many of the teams who may have the financial ability to add salary lack the cap space to do so. CapFriendly currently lists 16 teams – more than half the league – with projected cap space that amounts to less than a minimum salary and only seven teams currently in a playoff spot are among those with flexibility.

Fortunately, we may not be entirely without fireworks at the deadline. Friedman notes that major investments on players whose impact on teams will last beyond just this season or next could be seen as exceptions to the rule when it comes to adding salary. These additions can be excused as a financial commitment beyond the current financial and flat cap crises. Custance and Duhatschek also point out that for those Canadian teams with the means and desire to add, the deadline may be a little late given the possibility of lengthy quarantines, meaning trades could start up well before six weeks from now. There is hope that there will still be some transactional excitement this season and possibly even sooner rather than later.

  • It sure seemed like a notable trade was about to occur this weekend. On Saturday, it was reported by a number of sources that the Anaheim Ducks and Vancouver Canucks were nearing a deal that would have swapped Jake Virtanen and Danton Heinen. However, the deal never occurred and Friedman questions whether it was really as close as it was made out to be. The two sides certainly did discuss a trade and those two players in particular, and by all accounts continue to do so, but Friedman says that things got “carried away” before a firm deal was in place. The two sides are committed to balancing out the salaries in the trade and while Virtanen and Heinen do have very similar cap hits, their salaries are not even. In the final year of his contract, Heinen carries a $2.8MM AAV and near-equal amount of actual salary. Virtanen’s contract carries a $2.55MM AAV and he is owed only $1.7MM in salary this year, but he has an additional season remaining and $3.4MM in salary. That discrepancy is significant and a major hurdle and the reason why Friedman says a one-for-one swap was never a possibility. He notes that Derek Grant was discussed as a possible addition from Anaheim’s side and he could still be part of a final deal. In the first year of a three-year contract, Grant’s $1.5MM salary next year and $1.75MM in 2022-23 could help to offset Virtanen’s cost to Anaheim next year, but it doesn’t entirely cover the the difference and it is of course discounting the fact that Grant is a valuable player in his own right and not just a salary dump. There is clearly still more work to be done by the Ducks and Canucks if this heavily-rumored deal is to actually become reality. In the meantime, Friedman stated that Virtanen’s salary next season is a turn-off for most teams and could hinder Vancouver’s ability to trade him, especially if these talks with Anaheim fall apart.
  • One other limiting factor for the current trade market is that a pair of notable rental candidates may not be willing to waive their No-Movement Clauses. While there could be interest in Arizona Coyotes defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, especially in a lacking rental market for blue liners, don’t expect the respected veteran to be on the move. Custance and Duhatschek write that Hjalmarsson has no interest in waiving his NMC and appears content to play out the final year of his contract in Arizona. Hjalmarsson does appear to have lost a step, scoring at a career-low rate and getting penalized at a career-high rate, so perhaps it’s in the best interest of all parties if he finishes out the year and rides off into the sunset. The more surprising note from Custance and Duhatschek on a player who also may not be willing to waive their NMC for a potential trade is Taylor Hall. Signed to a one-year deal this off-season, it was expected that Hall would again be the top trade deadline target if the Buffalo Sabres were not on a postseason trajectory. Well, the Sabres are certainly not playoff-bound, but Hall doesn’t seem to mind. Custance and Duhatschek cite sources who believe that Hall, ranked at just No. 24 on The Athletic’s trade board, is happy in Buffalo and would like to stay. There is a belief that an extension may be more likely than a trade at this point, even with the Sabres’ season in shambles and the team in need of the immense trade capital he would return.
  • Another year, another season in which the Detroit Red Wings will be sellers at the trade deadline. However, the team may be looking to move more than just rentals in the coming weeks (or in the off-season). A rival executive tells Custance and Duhatschek that GM Steve Yzerman is listening to all offers and wouldn’t be surprised if a young core forward such as Anthony Mantha or Tyler Bertuzzi were moved. Mantha, 26, is struggling this season and it remains unclear what his ceiling may be in the NHL as he has dealt with injury and inconsistency over the years. Bertuzzi, also 26, actually got off to a great start early this season, scoring at the best pace of his career albeit in nine games. He has since been sidelined by injury and without building on his hot start, there remain concerns that his development has flatlined in Detroit. If the Red Wings doubt that either player can be an effective part of the young core they are growing in the pipeline, they could be moved.

Anaheim Ducks| Buffalo Sabres| Detroit Red Wings| Injury| NHL| Players| Steve Yzerman| Utah Mammoth| Vancouver Canucks Anthony Mantha| Danton Heinen| Derek Grant| Elliotte Friedman| Jake Virtanen| Niklas Hjalmarsson| Salary Cap| Trade Rumors

15 comments

Anaheim, Vancouver Discussing Jake Virtanen Trade

February 27, 2021 at 4:41 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

Normally Pacific Division rivals, the Anaheim Ducks and Vancouver Canucks are nevertheless discussing a trade that would send underperforming young forward Jake Virtanen further down the Pacific coast. According to multiple sources, the two teams continue to negotiate what the exchange of packages may look like. A flurry of information over the past hour or two implies that talks are very much still ongoing and public nature of the trade discussion is often a strong indicator that a deal of some sort will get done. However, The Athletic’s Thomas Drance writes that while the Canucks and Ducks are “grinding away”, a deal is not imminent for now.

Virtanen’s name as the headliner of this trade should come as no surprise. He has been one of the most verified members of the trade block this season, with whispers of Vancouver’s impatience with his lack of production dating back to last season. It’s difficult to blame the Cancucks for being upset with Virtanen to the point of wanting to move on; the 24-year-old was the sixth overall pick in 2014 and plays with the size and skill to be a dynamic power forward. Virtanen was seen as one of the safest bets in his draft class, yet six years later has shown too much floor and not enough ceiling. Although 2019-20 marked a career year for Virtanen with new highs in goals and points, it still only amounted to 18 goals and 36 points whilst his checking game diminished. After earning 55 NHL games as a rookie in 2015-16, the Canucks’ first sign that Virtanen’s effort and reliability may become a question came the following season, when he only played in ten NHL games and spent the rest of the season producing pedestrian numbers in the AHL. At the top level ever since, Virtanen has only managed 20 points, 25 points, and the aforementioned 36 points in his first three full NHL seasons.

The final straw for GM Jim Benning and company has been Virtanen’s play so far this season. The obviously talented forward has failed to meet expectations before, but this time the disparity is too great. Virtanen has just one point in 19 games despite ample opportunity early on in the campaign. As a result, Virtanen has now been relegated to a fourth line role, a poor fit for a player of his offensive ability but who also too frequently plays without energy. Unable to motivate their young forward and without a fit in the lineup, Vancouver is looking to move on.

The Ducks make sense as a partner in a Virtanen trade for many reason. Anaheim’s roster, though it includes a number of established veterans, is largely in a rebuild. The team has acquired a large group of young pro options and are in the process of evaluating who they do and do not want to build around as their new core. Unfortunately, veterans and youngsters alike have been underperforming in Anaheim, last year and early this season. The Ducks are understandably willing to take on a high-upside risk in Virtanen given that they have scoring opportunity to spare in their ever-changing lineup and are looking for top talent to build around.

There are a number of potential underachieving young forwards who could be off to Vancouver in exchange, but it seems that one name in particular has emerged as a definite inclusion. Both The Athletic’s Rick Dhaliwal (link) and Sportsnet’s Nick Alberga (link) report that forward Danton Heinen is expected to be moving to Vancouver in the potential trade. A fellow member of the 2014 draft class, though as an unheralded fourth-rounder of the Boston Bruins, Heinen has nonetheless found slightly more success than Virtanen. However, his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. After a 47-point rookie season in 2017-18, Heinen fell to 34 points the next year and ultimately fell out of favor in Boston last season, dealt to Anaheim for Nick Ritchie at the trade deadline. Heinen has recorded 10 points in 26 games across two seasons so far for Anaheim – a 32-point full-season pace – indicating that his scoring may not jump back up to near-50 and beyond with the Ducks either. Vancouver appears willing to take the chance on the British Columbia native though, perhaps with some added insight from former Bruins executive Benning. Whether or not he fits the description of the “young forward” that the club has been hunting for depends on your definition of the word.

Of course, if this was a simple one-for-one deal, it would be done by now. According to multiple sources, both players seem to be aware that they are included in the potential trade, but work still needs to be done on the additional pieces. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that balancing the books may be part of the problem, though Virtanen carries a $2.55MM cap hit this year (and next) while Heinen sits at $2.8MM, so there is not much an impactful discrepancy, even for two cap-strapped clubs. Drance notes that Vancouver was insistent on getting current value back for Virtanen, rather than just a pick or prospect to dump his salary, but Anaheim may be looking for more as a result of giving up a roster asset and taking on an additional contract year. Regardless of the reason for the deal not being completed, the two sides appear close and continue to talk. Stay tuned for more.

Anaheim Ducks| Jim Benning| Vancouver Canucks Danton Heinen| Jake Virtanen| Nick Ritchie

4 comments

Hampus Lindholm Expected To Return Saturday

February 26, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

  • The Ducks are expected to have defenseman Hampus Lindholm back in the lineup on Saturday against Vegas, relays Elliott Teaford of the Orange County Register. The 27-year-old has missed the last three games due to a lower-body injury.  While he won’t do much to bolster their scuffling offense that’s averaging less than two goals per game, Lindholm is a big part of their back end as he logs more than 22 minutes per night on the back end, second on the team to only Kevin Shattenkirk.

Anaheim Ducks| Colorado Avalanche| Los Angeles Kings Hampus Lindholm| Tobias Bjornfot

7 comments

Ducks Activate Sonny Milano, Place Carter Rowney On IR

February 24, 2021 at 8:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

  • The Ducks activated Sonny Milano from IR and recalled him from his AHL conditioning loan, relays Elliott Teaford of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). The winger suffered an upper-body just a week into the season, limiting him to just two games.  He was quietly productive after joining Anaheim last season with five points in nine contests, making him an intriguing addition to a lineup that has struggled mightily offensively in the early going.  The team also placed winger Carter Rowney on IR due to a lower-body injury.  While the veteran is known more as a bottom-six player, he’s tied for the team lead in assists with six in 19 games.

Anaheim Ducks| Detroit Red Wings| Injury| Pittsburgh Penguins| Snapshots Carter Rowney| Jason Zucker| Sonny Milano| Tyler Bertuzzi

3 comments

Anaheim Ducks Recall Prospect Trevor Zegras

February 21, 2021 at 5:10 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 4 Comments

The Anaheim Ducks were planning on taking a cautious approach with the development of top prospect Trevor Zegras, but the 19-year-old forward has done everything he could this year to prove that he’s ready to play at the NHL level. The team apparently agrees as they announced they have recalled him to their roster.

Zegras was actually skating with the team on Sunday, suggesting a promotion was near. The forward, who turned pro last March after one season at Boston University, was dominant at the 2021 World Junior Championship, earning the MVP honors at the tournament as well as leading Team USA to the gold medal. He then reported to the AHL, where he has been impressive as well, posting four goals and nine points in eight games with the San Diego Gulls as well as a plus-four rating.

With the Ducks struggling on the ice, currently in last place in the West Division with a 6-9-3 record (having lost four of their last five games), the team needs an offensive spark to get the team going and are hoping that Zegras could provide that. Anaheim is currently ranked 31st in the league in goals scored, averaging just 1.83 goals per game. Youngster Max Comtois leads the team with seven goals. After that, no player has more than three this year, including their veteran leaders, Jakob Silfverberg (3), Adam Henrique (3), Rickard Rakell (1) and Ryan Getzlaf (1).

Anaheim is looking to shake up their roster as the team placed center Adam Henrique on waivers on Saturday (he cleared), meaning he can be assigned to the team’s taxi squad. However, the team is looking to make changes to do something to intensify its rebuilding project. Many of the youngsters are also struggling on the team as Sam Steel, Troy Terry and Isac Lundestrom each have just two goals this season, not exactly what they were hoping for when the season started.

Anaheim Ducks Trevor Zegras

4 comments

Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

February 21, 2021 at 12:02 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 4 Comments

Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)           
                              Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Anaheim Ducks| Boston Bruins| Buffalo Sabres| Calgary Flames| Carolina Hurricanes| Chicago Blackhawks| Colorado Avalanche| Columbus Blue Jackets| Dallas Stars| Detroit Red Wings| Edmonton Oilers| Florida Panthers| Los Angeles Kings| Minnesota Wild| Montreal Canadiens| Nashville Predators| New Jersey Devils| New York Islanders| New York Rangers| Ottawa Senators| Philadelphia Flyers| Pittsburgh Penguins| Polls| San Jose Sharks| St. Louis Blues| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs| Utah Mammoth| Vancouver Canucks| Vegas Golden Knights| Washington Capitals| Winnipeg Jets

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