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Snapshots: Miller, Sabres, Oettinger

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As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause.  That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age.  However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case.  As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News that part of the reason they weren’t overly active in free agency this summer was to give them the flexibility to extend their internal core as their contracts come up. We saw an example of that recently with the seven-year agreement with center Tage Thompson while Dylan Cozens is a year away from a pricey new deal of his own; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Peyton Krebs are extension-eligible next summer.  If Adams intends to work out long-term deals with all of those players, they’ll need all the flexibility they can get so their discipline this summer will be worth it later.
  • While Jake Oettinger ultimately settled for a three-year, $12MM bridge deal, the netminder told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that has made it clear to his representatives that he wants to stay in Dallas for the long haul. The contract still represents quite the raise for someone that actually spent a month in the minors last season before being recalled for good in mid-November and his AAV will get a notable bump three years from now as he’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer.

Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency.  Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.

There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season.  As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.

Star Players

Jason Robertson (Dallas)

Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal.  He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range.  The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that.  At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.

Underachieving Former First Rounders

Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)

Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players.  Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs.  Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end.  Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option.  Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning.  He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer.  A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.

As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019.  He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay.  Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season.  His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations.  Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?

Young Regulars

Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)

Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games.  The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract.  If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.

Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night.  They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal.  But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer?  Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on.  Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards.  Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal.  Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.

Not Fully Established

Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)

McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point.  Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out.  If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.

Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract.  A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now.  However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.

What’s The Holdup?

Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)

Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise.  He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through.  The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement.  Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.

Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch.  He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago.  He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game.  Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K.  At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point.  In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.

Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season.  Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible.  This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started.  As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.

There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pacific Notes: Moore, Samorukov, Keeper

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Trevor Moore was one of the bright spots for the Kings last season as he broke out with 48 points in 81 after putting up 41 in his first 123 NHL contests.  He’s under contract for the upcoming season at a below-market $1.875MM and is eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer for the first time.  Eric Stephens of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that if the team feels that this type of production is a sign of things to come, offering the 27-year-old a shorter-term extension in the $3MM range might be enough to get something done.  The UFA market hasn’t been kind to middle-six wingers lately and Moore’s limited track record at this point doesn’t help from a leverage standpoint so that type of offer might be good enough to get him to commit early.

More from the Pacific Division:

  • Dmitri Samorukov’s NHL debut with the Oilers last season was one to forget. He played 2:28 of the first period, was on the ice for two goals allowed, and then was on the bench the rest of the way before being quickly sent down to the minors.  However, Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal points out that despite the fact that his NHL experience is limited to that one appearance, Edmonton might be hesitant to try to sneak the 23-year-old through waivers next month in training camp.  After all, young defensemen with some size at a low price tag ($775K) are often appealing to rebuilding teams which could result in him breaking camp with the team over someone like Philip Broberg who remains waiver-exempt.
  • Canucks defenseman Brady Keeper has fully recovered from the broken leg he sustained back in training camp, notes Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Province. The 26-year-old signed with Vancouver as an unrestricted free agent last summer and had a chance to push for a spot on the roster but instead, he wound up missing the entire year.  Depending on Tucker Poolman’s availability, Keeper could have a chance to push for the sixth or seventh spot on the back end in training camp.

Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Robertson, Blackhawks, Kayumov

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There has been a greater emphasis on paying young stars big money early in recent years and it would appear that at least one team owner isn’t a fan of that.  Speaking on the Cam and Strick Podcast (audio link) earlier this week, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi lamented the current contract landscape across the league:

A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million. If you want term with that player, he’s going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed.

I think there’s a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don’t like it, but that’s the market, and that’s the way it works.

While not naming him specifically, it’s quite clear that the 40-goal player he’s referencing is Jason Robertson who led the Stars with 41 goals in 74 games last season.  If the asking price on a short-term deal is in the $7MM range as Gaglardi suggests, Dallas will almost certainly have to do a bridge deal to get the 23-year-old under contract without having to part with another player.  They have a little over $6.3MM in projected room at the moment, per CapFriendly, but that could jump closer to $7.5MM if Anton Khudobin is healthy and is sent to the minors.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • There is some uncertainty on the injury front for the Blackhawks with training camps just a few weeks away. GM Kyle Davidson told Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times that they are still waiting for a firm update on the status of forward Jujhar Khaira who underwent back surgery back in February.  At the time, he was supposed to be away from hockey activities for 10-12 weeks so the fact that his availability is still in question would suggest that there has been a setback.  The 28-year-old had three goals in 27 games in his first season with the Blackhawks.  Davidson also indicated that there are a couple of other players that they’re waiting for information on regarding their availability for the start of camp but didn’t identify who those players will be.
  • Still with Chicago, the Blackhawks were hoping to sign prospect Artur Kayumov this summer, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). However, the 24-year-old winger opted to remain with Yaroslavl of the KHL citing family reasons as he signed a one-year deal to stay there instead.  Kayumov had 19 points in 42 games last season and his agent indicated that there’s a chance he could sign with the Blackhawks following the KHL campaign.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $81,489,166 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Beniers (two years, $897.5K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $925K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $3.9875MM

Beniers was the second-overall selection last year and had a dominant year at Michigan before making the jump to the pros where he averaged just shy of a point per game down the stretch.  He should become their top center within the next couple of seasons and with it, a long-term deal in the $8MM range could be on the table based on recent comparable signings.  With his expected role, he should reach his bonuses this season which will need to be factored into their cap plans.  Wright slipped to fourth overall last month after being the consensus number one for a lot of the last two seasons but has been billed as being NHL-ready.  They’ll be able to ease him in which could result in some lower production at the beginning although it shouldn’t affect his second contract that much unless he’s in a limited role longer than expected.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($1.4MM, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($825K, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
F Kole Lind ($825K, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi was one of Seattle’s higher-profile pickups in expansion but struggled considerably last season, scoring just twice in 75 games.  While it’s likely that he’ll rebound to an extent, he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than about two-thirds of his current cost unless he has a career year.  Geekie’s first full NHL season was a decent one as he acquitted himself in somewhat of a limited role while being their best player at the faceoff dot.  Even in a bottom-six role, there’s some room for him to pass the $2MM mark next summer.  Donato returned after being non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration and while he is coming off a career year, the fact he wasn’t able to do better than this on the open market doesn’t bode well for his odds next summer.  Lind, Kuhlman, and Hayden will be battling for the final forward spot or two on the roster but are unlikely to command much more than their current rates unless one of them can step into a legitimate full-time role.

GM Ron Francis felt that Dunn would be able to stand out more with a bigger role and he did just that, tying his career-high in points while setting a new benchmark in assists.  Another showing like that could push him past the $5MM mark next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility.  Soucy wasn’t able to land in Seattle’s top four very often last year but that didn’t stop him from showing off an improved offensive element to his game as he scored ten goals which is two more than the previous two years combined.  With the size he also brings, a repeat performance could allow him to generate a strong market that could push his AAV into the $3MM range despite being a third-pairing piece which is an area teams often try to save money in.  For Soucy, they might make an exception.  Borgen was a frequent healthy scratch last season which certainly wasn’t the Kraken debut he was hoping for.  A similar role could have him in non-tender territory next summer while if he does lock down a spot on the third pairing, a one-year deal at a small raise might be the route Seattle opts to take.

Jones is coming off another quiet year with the Flyers and has failed to post a save percentage above .900 over the last four seasons.  Despite that, Seattle opted for him as their backup goaltender for the upcoming campaign but at some point, it stands to reason that another below-average performance will push him down closer to the $1MM mark next summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle’s first season with Seattle saw him play a similar role to the one that he had with the Islanders so it’s not surprising that his production was largely in line with his performance with New York.  It’s an output that isn’t quite worth $5.5MM but if he can stay around the 20-goal mark for the next couple of seasons, he should be able to land somewhat close to this on his next deal.  Wennberg wasn’t quite able to replicate the production he had with the Panthers but his output at the center position is worth close to his current rate compared to the open market.  However, with Beniers and Wright around, can he get those numbers again?  That will dictate a lot when it comes to his next contract as to whether a small raise could be had or a sizable drop.

Schultz comes over from Washington where he’s coming off a quiet year offensively by his standards which made this commitment a bit surprising.  He should have an opportunity to play a bigger role offensively which could help but even so, he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts so it’d be hard to foresee a big raise on the horizon.

Driedger had a tough first season with the Kraken although he still managed a save percentage of .899, the best on the team.  His second year will be even tougher as an ACL tear suffered at the Worlds will cost him the majority of next season.  Suffice it to say, there will be a lot at stake in 2023-24 when it comes to determining his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)

After a couple of quieter seasons with Tampa Bay, Gourde had a golden opportunity with Seattle last season as he was their all-situations top center.  While his best success came in a lower role with the Lightning, Gourde adapted quite well to being a go-to player and finished second on the team in scoring.  Again, Beniers and eventually Wright will cut into his playing time but for now, this contract is one of Seattle’s better ones.  Tanev was limited to just 32 games last season due to a knee injury but was quite effective over the first couple of months of the season.  His contract has long been viewed as above-market after Pittsburgh signed him for six years at his current price but if he stays near that half a point per game mark while playing his usual strong defensive and physical game, the Kraken will do well with this contract.

Larsson was one of two veteran defensemen to eschew a chance at testing the open market last summer to instead sign a long-term deal with Seattle.  In his case, he received a much bigger role than he was accustomed to with Edmonton which helped him set a new career-best in points.  In the process, he established himself as still being capable of being a second or third defender.  That’s not the most optimal role for him and he wouldn’t be in that role on a top team but any time a team can get a second or third blueliner for this much money, it’s one that they’re going to be quite happy with.  That said, even if he stays in that role for three more years, it’s unlikely the open market will view him at that level.

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Vancouver Canucks Extend J.T. Miller

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After a summer of trade rumors, it seems the J.T. Miller saga has reached its conclusion. The Vancouver Canucks announced today that their star center has signed a seven-year, $56MM contract carrying an $8MM AAV.

As mentioned, this deal comes after an offseason where Miller, who was set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, was a frequent target of all sorts of trade rumors and speculation. Last month, we covered how Miller’s representation had made it clear that they would be cutting off all contract talks once the 2022-23 season began. So, that upcoming deadline might have moved the pace of contract talks forward. The Canucks might have paid attention to what happened to the Calgary Flames with their own star forward, Johnny Gaudreau after Gaudreau took a similar stance last season and cut off extension talks once the 2021-22 season began. Gaudreau left for Columbus in the summer, and the Flames had to scramble to find a replacement as a result.

With this extension signed, the Canucks have avoided a similar fate. This deal is one of extreme significance for the Canucks. First and foremost, they have locked in their star centerman for what could end up being the rest of his playing days. Miller will be 30 when the contract begins, and by the time it finishes he could be at or near the end of his NHL career.

With that in mind, the seven-year term might concern fans of the Canucks. It’s unlikely that Miller will be worth the $8MM cap hit he’ll command when he’s past the age of 35. That being said, though, it’s not a certainty that he’ll be an ineffective player, and the expected rise of the cap could limit the damage of this deal in its later years. If Miller can age as gracefully as Claude Giroux, for example, who received a three-year deal at a $6.5MM cap hit despite turning 35 in January, then the term will be less of an issue. But he’ll need to stay in top shape in order to do so.

The benefit of this seven-year term, though, is that the cap hit of the deal is lower than some might have expected for a player of Miller’s caliber. Miller was extremely productive last season, scoring 32 goals and 99 points in 80 games. He was an elite offensive force, showcasing the ability to take over shifts and elevate the play of his linemates.

If Miller can continue to produce at around a point-per-game rate, Miller will be underpaid at an $8MM cap hit. Miller’s cap hit is lower than that of Sharks center Tomas Hertl, who has a career-high of 74 points, and identical to that of Ryan Johansen, who has crossed the 70-point plateau just once in his career. To put it simply, Miller’s market value is higher than the $8MM he’s being paid, which, at least in the short-to-medium term, is a win for the Canucks. It’s just the final few years of this deal that pose the most downside risk.

Looking at this more broadly, the contract has major implications for the Canucks franchise as a whole. This is not an extension a team signs if they are looking to re-tool or rebuild. This is an extension that a team signs when they want to capitalize on the next few years. With this extension, the Canucks have seemingly given themselves a green light to operate in a win-at-all-costs manner in the short term. For a franchise still waiting on its first Stanley Cup victory, that’s a sensible choice to make.

The challenge for the Canucks with this contract comes in terms of how it impacts the rest of GM Patrik Allvin’s roster construction. The team’s captain and second-line center, Bo Horvat, is set to hit free agency next summer. With Miller now extended, Elias Pettersson capable of playing center, and other long-term contracts already on their books for Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Ilya Mikheyev, will the Canucks be able to finalize a Horvat extension? Should they?

That’s an issue for the team to solve after next season, and perhaps the answer can come in the form of shedding their relatively highly-priced middle-of-the-lineup players such as Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson. For this season, the mandate for coach Bruce Boudreau is clear: win as many games as possible and try to go on a playoff run. There are those who believed the Canucks would be best served to enter into a rebuild, and with this contract, it’s clear that’s not the direction the organization will pursue.

Will it work out for them? At this point, we don’t know. But what we do know is that the Canucks have found a way to retain one of their most talented players for what could end up being the rest of his playing days.

There will be those who don’t like the cost of this contract or the term that’s attached, and that’s understandable. Retaining J.T. Miller’s services will cost the Canucks a lot of money over the next few years, and the team’s front office has chosen to accept the immense risks of that come along with that commitment. But if Allvin and team president Jim Rutherford want to give the Canucks the best possible chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons, there really was no other choice they could make.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Senators Defense, Couture, Stralman

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The Ottawa Senators are intent on competing for a playoff spot next season, and their offseason moves have reflected that intention. The team spent major resources in both cap space and draft picks to add some star talent, and the result of those expenditures is that Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat will be wearing red and black this upcoming season. But while the team’s offensive attack is significantly improved from last season, less attention has been paid to their defense.

In an interview with Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, Senators coach D.J. Smith revealed what his plans are for the team’s defense corps. Smith stated that he intends to pair top prospect and rookie defenseman Jake Sanderson with veteran blueliner Travis Hamonic to start camp. That pairing would go along with a more established pairing of Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub, one that will presumably handle the team’s toughest minutes. This news is not a major surprise, although it could be to those who are low on the current makeup of the Senators’ blueline. Much had been made about the Senators’ pursuit of an additional top-four defenseman this summer, but it seems that those pursuits have concluded, at least for the time being.

Now, for some other notes from across the NHL:

  • While the San Jose Sharks’ new era under GM Mike Grier began with a trade of veteran defenseman Brent Burns, don’t expect a similar departure for other Sharks star veterans, namely Logan Couture. In speaking to Corey Masisiak of The Athletic, Couture said that when asked, as Burns was, about potentially being traded, Couture “didn’t think twice about it.” (subscription link) Couture is seemingly all-in on the Sharks returning to contention next season, and for the team to have any chance of success next season they’ll need their veteran centerman to continue to play like a quality top-six center.
  • The Montreal Canadiens made some moves to shake up their team this summer, and their most significant move on defense came with the trade of Jeff Petry to the Pittsburgh Penguins. In addition to losing Petry, the Canadiens also dealt Alexander Romanov to the New York Islanders. The team added Mike Matheson in the Petry deal, but is still short one NHL defenseman from where they were last year. That has led some, including The Athletic’s Marc Antoine Godin, to suggest that the Canadiens add a veteran defenseman before this upcoming year. (subscription link) Godin specifically names veteran defenseman Anton Stralman as someone the Canadiens should target, given his experience and track record of reliability. Stralman skated in the third-most minutes per game of any Arizona Coyotes player last season and would compete for a role on Montreal’s right side with Chris Wideman, David Savard, and Justin Barron.

2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Sixth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
2nd Overall: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings (2)
3rd Overall: Roman Josi, Atlanta Thrashers (38)
4th Overall: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues (4)
5th Overall: Erik Karlsson, Toronto Maple Leafs (15)

If this poll was done a few years ago, Karlsson may have challenged for the top spot given how incredible his early career was. The high-flying defenseman won the Norris Trophy in his third season, another in his sixth, and was the runner-up in years seven and eight. There have been few defensemen in the modern era with such a dominant stretch, and it culminated in the 2017 playoffs when Karlsson nearly carried the Ottawa Senators to the Stanley Cup Final (seemingly by himself at times), leading the team in scoring while playing more than 28 minutes a night.

After some injury-plagued seasons and a massive contract that has made him a financial anchor in San Jose, Karlsson’s career has certainly plateaued and made him the fifth pick in our hindsight draft.

We now move on to the sixth pick and the first real “bust” of the 2008 draft.

The early history of the Columbus Blue Jackets was filled with draft-day mistakes. Rostislav Klesla, Pascal Leclaire, Nikolai Zherdev, Alexandre Picard, Gilbert Brule. Not exactly the definition of a Hall of Fame lineup. By 2008 though, things were starting to look up. The team had obviously hit with Rick Nash, who had become a superstar by that point, and the previous two drafts had produced Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek in the first round (not to mention Steve Mason in the third).

Unfortunately, 2008 wouldn’t be so kind, at least at the top of the board.

After seeing four straight defensemen come off the board with Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Pietrangelo, and Luke Schenn, the Blue Jackets took the podium and went with an incredibly skilled Russian sniper by the name of Nikita Filatov, who had made it to the top domestic league even as a teenager. At the time, some claimed that there was no player in the draft with a higher offensive ceiling than the young winger, who had put up ridiculous numbers in the lower levels in Russia, and dominated at international tournaments against his own age group.

Unlike most Russian players, Filatov wasn’t signed to a contract back home and could come to North America right away, which he did, joining the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL after an early-season stint with the Blue Jackets. The talent was there and during a January recall, he showed it off, recording a hat trick in his sixth NHL game, despite seeing just 16 shifts that night.

If you are wondering why his career page includes just 47 more NHL games, a total of 53 before he went back to the KHL (and also never really developed there), part of Aaron Portzline’s retrospective for The Athletic earlier this summer may have an answer:

Filatov was undeniably skilled and a world-class sniper, but coaches were trying to show him the reward that could be his if he simply followed the puck to the net and showed even a half-hearted willingness to play in traffic.

After four or five clips, Filatov stepped back from the screen as if he was slightly startled. He looked at coach Rob Riley and the video assistant and said, flatly: “Filly don’t do rebounds.”

Filatov would finish his NHL career with just six goals and 14 points, while seven other players in the 2008 top 10 are still active in the league today. It was a devastating miss for an organization that made it to the playoffs for the first time in 2009 and desperately could have used a top-end defenseman to help Nash take the team to the next level–especially because they landed plenty of offensive help in Cam Atkinson way down in the sixth round that year.

So there is no doubt that the Blue Jackets made a mistake in selecting Filatov but who should they have gone with instead? With the sixth overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft, who will the Columbus Blue Jackets select? Cast your vote below.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Edmonton Oilers Sign Ryan Murray

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The Edmonton Oilers have signed defenseman Ryan Murray to a one-year, $750K contract, adding some depth to their group.

Murray, 28, is coming off a year spent with the Colorado Avalanche, one which resulted in a Stanley Cup championship–though he had little to do with it. The veteran defenseman didn’t play a single game in the playoffs for Colorado and suited up just 37 times during the regular season, recording four assists.

Interestingly enough, Edmonton fans will certainly be plenty familiar with the player, given his connection to one of the most infamous draft misses in team history. In 2012, the Oilers decided to pass on Murray, one of a huge number of defensemen that were ranked highly, and select Nail Yakupov first overall. The Columbus Blue Jackets would nab Murray next–a move that still might be considered a mistake, after so many others from the first round went on to star in the NHL.

It’s never been quite that level for Murray, who simply couldn’t stay healthy through the early part of his career and lost important development time because of it. Even in his post-draft year of 2012-13, he played only 23 games for the Everett Silvertips, a trend that would continue as he transitioned into the NHL.

Now a decade after being drafted, Murray has played in only 432 regular season games at the highest level, despite seeing just a single AHL contest in his entire career. At times it has seemed like he is on the injured list more than he’s on the ice, something that he’ll try to change as he heads back to Canada for the first time in his career.

The Regina, Saskatchewan native is an interesting addition for the Oilers, who already project to have a pretty full blue line for the upcoming season. There’s absolutely no risk with a league minimum deal like this one, though it will put a little more pressure on a young player like Philip Broberg to perform, given he is still waiver exempt.

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