Free Agent Profile: Steven Stamkos
In the salary cap era, it is extremely rare that legitimate star players make it to the free agent market. It’s also very rare that high end players become unrestricted free agents in the prime of their careers. Both of these apply to Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, making his potential entry into Friday’s opening of free agency the most highly awaited in quite some time.
Last season, Stamkos played in 77 games with the Lightning, scoring 36 goals, good for a tie for the 7th most in the NHL. He also added 28 assists for a total of 64 points which was two shy of the team lead (Nikita Kucherov had 66). Both of those represented drops from 2014-15, where he had 72 points (43-29-72) while playing all 82 contests.
Late in the year, Stamkos was diagnosed with blood clots which cost him the final few games of the regular season as well as all but Tampa Bay’s final postseason game, a loss to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. While he was able to return, there will still be some questions as to his long-term health; is this now behind him or will it have the potential to linger or recur over the course of a long-term contract?
There’s no denying that Stamkos is among the best goal scorers in the game today and in an era where goals are at a premium, that can only stand to help Stamkos and agent Don Meehan in their quest to secure a new contract. Over the last 5 seasons, he has the second most goals in the NHL with 193, only behind Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin (224). However, Ovechkin has played in 38 more games over that span; if you break their goal totals into a goals-per-game rate, they’re nearly identical with Ovechkin at 0.615 per game and Stamkos at 0.592. Suffice it to say, he’s among the best at putting the puck in the net.
While Stamkos spent a big chunk of last year on the right wing, his natural position is center and that positional flexibility will certainly help his case as well. However, he has also made it known that he sees himself as a center and would like to return to playing that position moving forward.
Potential Suitors
To quickly sum it up, anyone with around $10MM or more in cap space or close to that amount that could use a top line sniper. If that sounds like just about every team in the league, it should, as that’s about how many will express some level of interest.
Buffalo is reportedly going to be “all in” when it comes to chasing Stamkos while Detroit now has the money to get into the bidding after shedding the retired Pavel Datsyuk’s contract over the weekend. Toronto is also likely to try to lure Stamkos to his hometown while Tampa Bay is attempting to re-sign him as well. Also, John Wawrow of AP reports that Boston and Vancouver expressed an interest in Stamkos over the weekend.
That’s only a shortlist of who will be courting Stamkos as well as more than half the league should make a pitch during the interview period between now and the opening of free agency on July 1st.
Expected Contract
We rated Stamkos as the top unrestricted free agent in our Top 50 list and have projected a max-term contract of eight years. For that to happen, Stamkos must sign prior to the opening of free agency.
While we have him taking that deal with Tampa Bay, GM Steve Yzerman told TSN’s Frank Seravelli that a sign-and-trade option to get Stamkos his eight years while getting an asset in return is also a possibility. We think he’ll take $9MM per year – less than he could get on the open market – to stick with the Lightning but if he does get to market, a cap hit in the double digit millions per year is a very realistic possibility.
Latest On Andrew Shaw’s Contract Talks
Andrew Shaw was acquired by the Canadiens in a draft night trade with Chicago. The pending restricted free agent was reportedly close to re-signing with the Blackhawks last week according to TSN’s Darren Dreger (via Today’s Slapshot) but the Blackhawks had to stop negotiations once the salary cap only increased by $1.6MM which ultimately led to him being traded for the 39th (Alex DeBrincat) and 45th (Chad Krys) picks in this weekend’s draft.
Picking up where the Hawks left off, Montreal is already believed to be in talks on a new deal with Shaw’s agent Pat Brisson. Dreger suggested Saturday that the contract should be a long-term one, potentially between 5-7 years in length.
On Sunday, Marc-Antoine Godin of La Presse reported that the Canadiens have tendered Shaw a 6 year offer worth just under $4MM per season. That would represent a sizable jump from the $2.5MM he earned in salary last year, the second of a two year bridge contract. The Canadiens must present Shaw with a $2.5MM qualifying offer in advance of Monday’s deadline.
Last season, Shaw finished eighth in Hawks’ scoring, picking up 14 goals and 20 assists (a career high) in 78 games while averaging 14:39 in ice time. He also added 4 goals (to lead the team) and 2 helpers in 6 postseason contests while logging 13:54 per night.
Minor Transactions: 6/26/16
Here is where we’ll keep track of today’s minor transactions.
- The Flyers have re-signed D Mark Alt to a one year contract, according to Cap Friendly. The 24 year old will receive $625,000 at the NHL level and $100,000 in the AHL. He last suited up for the Flyers in 2014-15. Last season, he had 4 goals and 15 assists in 72 games for Philadelphia’s AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley.
- The Wild announced that they have issued qualifying offers to seven players, including D Mathew Dumba, G Darcy Kuemper, and LW Jason Zucker. They also announced that they did not issue qualifying offers to RW Brett Bulmer, LW Raphael Bussieres, G Brody Hoffman, C Jared Knight, and RW Scott Sabourin. Those five will become unrestricted free agents on July 1st. The deadline for qualifying offers is Monday afternoon at 4 PM CST.
- Boston issued qualifying offers to RW Brian Ferlin and D Chris Casto while failing to tender one to C Ben Sexton, reports Mark Divver of the Providence Journal.
2017 Draft Pick Movement
Now that the 2016 NHL Draft is in the books, we look to 2017 and document the current status of traded draft picks for the upcoming draft.
Round 1
(none)
Round 2
- New Jersey acquired Boston’s 2nd in a trade for Lee Stempniak on February 29, 2016;
- Vancouver acquired Columbus’s 2nd in either 2016, 2017, or 2018 as compensation for Columbus hiring Coach John Tortorella on October 21, 2015;
- Boston acquired Edmonton’s 2nd as compensation for Edmonton hiring GM Peter Chiarelli on April 24, 2015;
- Buffalo acquired Minnesota’s 2nd in a trade for Chris Stewart on March 2, 2015;
- Carolina acquired NY Rangers’ 2nd in a trade for Eric Staal on February 28, 2016;
- Toronto acquired Ottawa’s 2nd in a trade involving Dion Phaneuf on February 9, 2016;
- Toronto acquired San Jose’s 2nd in a trade involving Raffi Torres and Roman Polak on February 22, 2016;
- Anaheim acquired Toronto’s 2nd in a trade for Frederik Andersen on June 20, 2016;
- Montreal acquired Washington’s 2nd in a trade for Lars Eller on June 24, 2016.
Round 3
- Philadelphia acquired Boston’s 3rd in a trade for Zac Rinaldo on June 30, 2015;
- Chicago acquired its 3rd back from Carolina’s in a trade for Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen on June 15, 2016. Carolina initially acquired the pick on September 11, 2015 in a trade for Kris Versteeg;
- New Jersey acquired Colorado’s 3rd in a trade for Eric Gelinas on February 29, 2016;
- Arizona acquired Detroit’s 3rd via San Jose in a trade for Maxim Letunov on June 20, 2016;
- Carolina acquired the conditional rights to New Jersey’s 3rd in a trade for Tuomo Ruutu on March 5, 2014;
- Detroit acquired Toronto’s 3rd as compensation for Toronto hiring coach Mike Babcock on May 20, 2015;
- Buffalo acquired Washington’s 3rd in a trade for Mike Weber on February 23, 2016.
Round 4
- NY Rangers acquired Florida’s 4th in a trade for Keith Yandle on June 20, 2016 once Yandle signed with Florida;
- Philadelphia acquired NY Islanders’ 4th in a draft day trade for Philadelphia’s 2016 4th;
- Colorado acquired NY Rangers’ 4th in a trade for Nick Holden on June 25, 2016;
- Edmonton acquired conditional rights to Vancouver’s 4th in a trade for Philip Larsen on February 24, 2016. The pick becomes a 5th if Larsen does not hit specified production thresholds.
Round 5
- Carolina acquired Boston’s 5th in a trade for John-Michael Liles on February 29, 2016;
- Chicago acquired Carolina’s 5th in a trade for Kris Versteeg on September 11, 2015;
- Chicago acquired St. Louis’s 5th in a draft day trade for Chicago’s 2016 5th.
Round 6
- Florida acquires Anaheim’s 6th in a trade involving Colby Robak on December 4, 2014. The pick would have been a 2016 4th if Robak played more games for the Ducks;
- San Jose acquires Arizona’s 6th in a trade for Maxim Letunov on June 20, 2016;
- Detroit acquired Florida’s 6th in a trade for Jakub Kindl on February 27, 2016;
- Chicago acquired NY Islanders’ 6th in a draft day trade involving both teams’ 2016 4th rounders;
- Nashville acquired NY Rangers’ 6th in a trade for Magnus Hellberg on July 1, 2015;
- NY Rangers acquired Vancouver’s 6th in a trade for Emerson Etem on January 8, 2016.
Round 7
- Chicago acquired Anaheim’s 7th in a trade for Corey Tropp on February 29, 2016;
- Pittsburgh conditionally acquired Arizona’s 7th in a trade for Sergei Plotnikov on February 29, 2016. Plotnikov must re-sign with Arizona for Pittsburgh to get the pick;
- San Jose acquired Chicago’s 7th in a trade on March 2, 2015. The pick was conditioned on Chicago winning the Stanley Cup in 2014-15;
- Boston acquired Florida’s 7th in a draft day trade for Boston’s 2016 7th;
- Winnipeg acquired Montreal’s 7th in a draft day trade for Winnipeg’s 2016 7th.
Free Agent Focus: Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs may have finished dead last in 2015-16, but things are looking up for the boys in blue. The Leafs drafted Auston Matthews—the consensus number one pick—and have a slew of young talent waiting in the wings. The team addressed their goaltending woes by trading for pending RFA Frederik Andersen and immediately signing him to a 5 year, $25MM extension.
Cap Space: $3,765,834 (via CapFriendly). This number is smaller than the actual cap space the Leafs will have on opening night because it does not include Jared Cowen‘s impending buyout and Nathan Horton and Stephane Robidas‘ LTIR placements—the latter of which comes into effect on opening night.
Key UFAs: F P.A. Parenteau
Parenteau finished second in team scoring last year with 20G and 21A, and led the team in power play goals with 7. The Leafs valued Parenteau enough to avoid trading him at the deadline for draft picks, which speaks volumes for a rebuilding team. The Quebecois right winger was bought out by Montreal before last season, and signed a $1.5MM one-year deal with the Leafs. Given his recent production, Parenteau would be looking for a raise and a longer-term contract.
Other UFAs: F Brad Boyes, F Michael Grabner, D T.J. Brennan.
Key RFAs: F Peter Holland and G Garret Sparks.
Holland finished the season with 9G and 18A in 65 games with the Leafs, similar to his production last season. The Leafs expected Holland to be a prototypical power-forward center in the mould of Getzlaf or Lindros, but the RFA has not delivered so far. With Auston Matthews, Tyler Bozak, and Nazem Kadri all slated to play center next year, Holland may be the odd man out. Sparks earned some time with the big club last year in place of injured starters, and amassed a 6-9 record with a .893 SV% and 3.02 GAA. Those are not stellar numbers, but the rookie goalie showed signs of promise by posting a shutout in one of his early games. It is unclear whether the Leafs issue qualifying offers to either RFA, and as of writing have not done so. The team has until June 27th at 5pm.
Other RFAs: F Sam Carrick, D Frank Corrado, D Martin Marincin.
The Leafs are rumored to be a big player in the Steven Stamkos sweepstakes but they’ll have to move some salary to make cap room. Goaltender Jonathan Bernier is the obvious candidate now that Andersen is the presumptive starter. Bernier makes $4.5MM a year and is on the final year of his contract. If the Leafs don’t move him they will start the season with $9.5MM tied up in goaltending. Once they place Horton and Robidas on LTIR and buy out Cowen, they should have enough space to make a serious play for the top free agent target this offseason.
Radulov Signs With KHL Salavat Yulaev
Alexander Radulov has decided to forego an NHL return and instead signs with the KHL’s Salavat Yulaev, says Sportsnet’s Elliote Friedman. The Russian winger made waves this spring by seeking to return to the NHL. A deal that met Radulov’s demands, however, never materialized. Whether or not Radulov had honest intentions of returning to the NHL—as opposed to using the NHL as a bargaining chip with KHL contract negotiations—isn’t apparent yet, and is subject to speculation.
Radulov was initially drafted by the Nashville Predators and played from 2006-2008. He managed to rack up 44G and 51A in 145 games in two seasons before bolting for the KHL’s Salavat Yulaev. His move to return to Russia was controversial because he still had one year remaining on his ELC. Radulov eventually played in the KHL until 2012, winning the KHL MVP three times. After Salavat’s season ended in 2012, Radulov made a brief return to the Predators for their playoff run. The winger, however, ran into trouble during that short stint when he was caught breaking curfew before a playoff game. The team suspended Radulov one game, and subsequently declined to extend Radulov’s contract.
After his brief stints in the NHL, Radulov once again returned to the KHL—this time signing with CSKA Moscow. Radulov thrived with his new KHL team and scored 76G and 160A in 181 games over four seasons.
Offer Sheet Candidates: Jones, Trouba, Lindholm
Offer sheets are an interesting wrinkle in the NHL’s free agency period; a rarely used but powerful tool to try and steal away young talent from rival clubs. Though we may not see any this season – the last one to be signed was by Ryan O’Reilly in 2013 – there are a few interesting names out there that could possibly draw interest from other teams. Let’s take a quick look at some of the offer sheet rules for this season:
- Teams can submit offer sheets to restricted free agents as of July 1st at 11:00 am central time. Players can choose to sign them at any point after that.
- If a player signs an offer sheet, his original team has seven days in which to match the deal or else accept the compensation. During this time they cannot be traded.
- Compensation is as follows (according to Elliotte Friedman):
Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
$1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
$1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
$3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
$5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
$7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks. - Teams must have the picks available before signing the player, or else the offer sheet will be considered null and void.
Some hefty prices to pay if a team goes after a big name to be sure, but sometimes deemed worth it; the Flyers would have faced stiff compensation penalties had Nashville not decided to match their 14-year, $110MM offer to Shea Weber in 2012 (one that would no longer be allowed under the seven-year contract limit). Here are some names that might just be worth the risk:
D Seth Jones – The Columbus Blue Jackets have huge cap issues at the moment and are desperately trying to rid themselves of some of their bad deals. After trading young star Ryan Johansen for Jones mid-season, they now need to find a way to re-sign the former fourth overall pick.
Jones is just 21, and has performed admirably in his first three seasons in the league, racking up 83 points in 240 games. If someone were to sign Jones to a long-term deal, the Blue Jackets would have a very difficult time matching it without finding a taker for some of their cap-hits. The team is already just $5MM under the cap, with close to $20MM committed to their blueline.
Whether Jones actually recieves any offers, or it’s just used as a negotiating tactic in order to pry some value out of the Blue Jackets in future trades, his name will surely come up in many talks this summer.
D Jacob Trouba – Another top-10 pick who is part of a deep defensive corps Trouba is considered available this summer on the trade market, and should be considered an offer sheet risk as well. While the Jets have much more cap room available, they already have three defencemen signed for over $5MM per season and might not be able to commit to a fourth.
Trouba has put up 72 points in 211 career games, and is considered a potential top-pairing blueliner in the future. Many teams could add him to their back end and thrust him into the spotlight in his fourth season. A long-term deal could be had, buying out free agent years and pushing that AAV up into un-matchable territory.
The Jets also have to worry about next year’s expansion draft, where they’ll be in danger of losing one of their young defencemen. Dustin Byfuglien and Toby Enstrom both have no-movement clauses that ensure their protection, leaving just one protection slot for both of Tyler Myers and Trouba (unless they choose the 8 skater option and risk some young forwards instead).
D Hampus Lindholm – The best player listed here, Lindholm has turned into an excellent defender for the Anaheim Ducks over the last few years. His case is one of worry for them as he could easily be offered a seven-year deal from teams around the league.
After signing Sami Vatanen last week, the Ducks now have five blueliners under contract for more than $3MM per season and adding a big deal that pushes $50MM could prove too pricey. If a team believes that Lindholm is the number 1 defenceman that he seems, they could decide to give up the picks in order to pry him away.
The Ducks have already dealt Frederik Andersen to save cap room and avoid losing him in the expansion draft, and they still have work to do before next summer. With Cam Fowler said to be on the market, perhaps he’ll be the victim of a looming Lindholm offer sheet.
Free Agent Focus: Vancouver Canucks
When the Vancouver Canucks entered the 2015-16 season, they were coming off a 101-point season and felt as though they had another strong shot at the playoffs, with Daniel and Henrik Sedin still in the mix and up-and-coming center Bo Horvat showing he was ready for a larger NHL role. What they got instead, was a disastrous season filled with injury and ineffectiveness, leading to a 31-38-13 record and finished ahead of only the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers in league standings. This summer they’ve already started their re-tool, trading 20-year old Jared McCann to Florida for former third overall pick Erik Gudbranson. Here’s a look at what else they have to do this summer:
Key Restricted Free Agent: W Emerson Etem – After a deal that saw Etem move across the continent (for the second time), the former Ranger got into 39 games down the stretch for the Canucks. A prolific scorer in junior – who tallied 143 goals in three seasons for the Medicine Hat Tigers, including a 61 goal effort in 2011-12 – Etem hasn’t been able to find much consistency in the NHL.
Now six years removed from being draft in the first round (29th overall), Etem has to show that he can be the offensive force he was once seen as. Perhaps it will help that Canucks’ coach Willie Dejardins was Etem’s coach in Medicine Hat for two seasons before being hired on with the Dallas Stars.
He’s coming off a one-year deal worth $850,500 and shouldn’t cost much more than $1MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility. With the other young forwards Horvat, Sven Baertschi and Jake Virtanen, Etem could be a long-term piece for the Canucks if he can ever reclaim that scoring touch.
Other RFAs: F Linden Vey, F Michael Zalewski, D Andrey Pedan
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: RW Radim Vrbata – While the Canucks struggle through the last few years of their now 35-year old franchise twins, another veteran is hitting the open market after a terrible season. Vrbata seemed to have found the fountain of youth in 2014-15 after signing a two-year pact with the Canucks; he put up a career-high 63 points and broke the 30 goal mark for the second time.
This season, he lit the lamp only 13 times and collected just 27 points – his lowest mark since 2008 when he played just 18 games before heading back to his native Czech Republic to be with his pregnant wife. He’ll hit the open market as a 35-year old coming off his worst year and will probably have to settle for a one-year deal somewhere; it almost surely won’t be in Vancouver. Vrbata was ranked 27 on our list of the top 50 free agents available this year.
D Dan Hamhuis – After another injury shortened season (this time from a gruesome slapshot to the face), Hamhuis is hitting free agency as somewhat of a risk, given his age and durability issues. While those issues may be somewhat overblown, Hamhuis isn’t going to get the big money deal he did a few years ago.
Even so, he is a strong shutdown defender when healthy and there are many teams who would love to have him in their top-4. If Hamhuis decides to take his talents elsewhere, he’ll try to catch on with a team with deep playoff aspirations as the 33-year old has only progressed past the first round once in his twelve year career.
Other UFAs: LW Ronalds Kenins, D Yannick Weber, D Matt Bartkowski
Projected Cap Room: $9.2MM, 21 players under contract.
The Canucks will continue their tear-down as they wait out the last few Sedin seasons, and look for progression from their young players. If they do sign any free agents, it would have to either be young players or cheap veterans that they’d look to deal closer to the next deadline.
We predicted them to sign both Lee Stempniak and Matt Martin, but look at other players like Sam Gagner or John-Michael Liles that fit in one of those two categories. It should be another long season for Canuck fans.
Snapshots: Kane, Shattenkirk, Sharks
In some startling news, WCVB news reports that Boston Bruins’ legendary defenceman Ray Bourque was arrested on Friday night on driving while intoxicated charges after a collision occurred in the Andover area. No one was seriously injured, and Bourque was released on bail. Here are some more stories from around the league:
- Another player no stranger to legal trouble, Evander Kane‘s name was in the headlines again in Buffalo following an alleged incident involving the physical harassment of two women at a downtown bar. The Associated Press was told that Kane “grabbed the woman by the arm or shoulder early Friday morning.” For Kane, this is the second incident this year involving the police, after a three-month investigation into an alleged sexual assault concluded in March without any charges been filed. The Buffalo News spoke to GM Tim Murray on Saturday about it and he seemed frustrated with the situation: “If it’s true, then we have to deal with it the way we have to deal with it. If it’s false again, then I guess we have to come up with a different plan of attack on how to make sure that these accusations that may not be true, how we stop them.”
- In other news, St. Louis Blues’ defenceman Kevin Shattenkirk was shocked to leave Buffalo without having been traded. Craig Custance of ESPN spoke to Shattenkirk’s agent Jordan Neumann about the 27-year old’s future: “Based on the conversations we had leading into this weekend with St. Louis, we did expect Kevin to have been traded this weekend. We are a bit surprised to be leaving here without having a deal done.” The veteran blueliner has one year left on his deal at $4.25MM and is widely expected to be traded soon.
- In conversation with Sharks’ GM Doug Wilson, Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News was told that he expects their in-season acquisitions to reach free agency on July 1st. The Sharks brought in pending UFAs James Reimer, Nick Spaling, Roman Polak and Dainius Zubrus during the season, and now don’t look like they’ll be able to retain any of them. To replace the outgoing players, Wilson thinks it’ll be an internal competition: “We have a lot of guys internally that will be knocking on the door”.
2016 Entry Draft Results By Team
Saturday concluded the 2016 draft with rounds 2-7, and for many young players it meant an end to the constant wondering of who would be their first NHL organization. We followed the round-by-round results and now will now break it down by team. The results of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft are:
Anaheim Ducks:
#24 – LW Max Jones (London, OHL)
#30 – C Sam Steel (Regina, WHL)
#85 – D Joshua Mahura (Red Deer, WHL)
#93 – LW Jack Kopacka (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL)
#115 – C Alex Dostie (Gatineau, QMJHL)
#205 – C Tyler Soy (Victoria, WHL)
Arizona Coyotes:
#7 – C Clayton Keller (USA U-18)
#16 – D Jakob Chychrun (Sarnia, OHL)
#68 – D Cam Dineen (North Bay, OHL)
#158 – D Patrick Kudla (Oakville, OJHL)
#188 – D Dean Stewart (Portage, MJHL)
Boston Bruins:
#14 – D Charles McAvoy (Boston University)
#29 – C Trent Frederic (USA U-18)
#49 – D Ryan Lindgren (USA U-18)
#135 – LW Joona Koppanen (Ilves, Finnish Jr. League)
#136 – D Cameron Clarke (Lone Star, NAHL)
#165 – C Oskar Steen (Farjestad, Swedish Jr. League)