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Toby Enstrom Practicing With Swedish Team, Expected To Make Decision Soon

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When we polled the PHR readership recently and asked who was the best remaining free agent, Toby Enstrom’s name quickly rose to the top. With almost 12% of the votes, readers thought that Enstrom had the most to offer among the extremely thin defense market, something that has had the spotlight turned on it in the last few days. When the Edmonton Oilers lost Andrej Sekera to Achilles surgery, many immediately speculated on a possible veteran signing that could help replace the defenseman’s minutes. Enstrom was clearly one of those names, though there has been no report of contact between the two sides.

That might be because Enstrom is currently practicing with his former team in Sweden, MODO, and has yet to make a decision on where to play in 2018-19. Swedish news outlet Aftonbladet spoke with MODO GM Michael Sundlov, who wants to sign Enstrom and expects the veteran NHL defenseman to make a decision soon. Interestingly MODO was relegated in 2016 and actually now plays in the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second tier. Enstrom’s brother Tommy Enstrom plays on the club and wore an “A” as an alternate captain last season, giving the team another bargaining chip to bring to the table.

The 33-year old Enstrom is an unrestricted free agent this summer after a decade in the NHL, originally making his debut for the Atlanta Thrashers back in 2007. A steady contributor, he has been slowed by injuries in recent years and no longer has quite the same offensive touch at the NHL level. The Winnipeg Jets made it clear they wouldn’t be bringing him back given their impressive depth on defense, though there was expected to at least be some interest in him on the open market. It does seem as though he has at least some sort of a North American opportunity according to Sundlov, though there are no specifics listed.

Previewing The August College Free Agent Market

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On Wednesday, August 15th, all drafted players who went the NCAA route and graduated this spring will become free agents if they remain unsigned by the team that holds their NHL rights. Unlike the last couple of summers, which featured names like Will Butcher, Alexander Kerfoot, Jimmy Vesey and Matt Benning, there is no standout name in this year’s class of late summer college free agents. However, as of now, CapFriendly reports that 16 players are set to hit the market next week. Some of them will not be in search of an NHL contract. Brown forward Max Willman was granted an additional year of NCAA eligibility due to injury and has committed to Boston University next season as a graduate student-athlete. UConn’s David Drake has already worked out an AHL deal with the affiliate of the team that drafted him, the Philadelphia Flyers, and Wisconsin’s Matt Ustaski has a similar arrangement with the Winnipeg Jets. Cornell’s Jared Fiegl and Dwyer Tschantz have already accepted their place in the pro hockey hierarchy and signed ECHL contracts. All of these players can technically sign with an NHL team after August 15th, but it is unlikely.

So what of the other available players? Here is a quick summary of the eleven collegians you may see sign with an NHL team in the coming weeks and a prediction of where they’ll end up:

D Terrance Amorosa, Clarkson (PHI, Rd. 5 – 2013)

Amorosa is the most productive of the players on this list over his NCAA career and he accomplished that feat as a defenseman. A smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman, Amorosa’s 27 points were key to a hugely successful season for the Golden Knights. Whether his choice or Philadelphia’s, it is not a major surprise that the young defenseman-heavy Flyers weren’t a good fit. The Quebec native has been training with NHLers in Montreal this summer and seems poised to find NHL employment somewhere, with an AHL floor. Prediction: NHL contract

D Kelly Summers, Clarkson (OTT, Rd. 7 – 2014)

The only Clarkson defenseman with more points than Amorosa last season was frequent pair-mate Summers. Not only is Summers slightly younger than Amorosa, he is also a little bigger and played in more games over the duo’s four years in Potsdam. Summers, who is also a right shot, recorded 30 points last season for the Golden Knights and possesses a great first pass. He may not want to sign in Ottawa, but he’ll be happy to sign elsewhere. Like Amorosa, hard to see Summers signing at any level below the AHL. Prediction: NHL contract

F Judd Peterson, St. Cloud State (BUF, Rd. 7 – 2012)

If anything works against Peterson, it will be age and mileage, as the hard-working forward played in two USHL seasons in addition to four NCAA seasons since being drafted out of high school by Buffalo. Yet, that has also added to his hockey IQ and leadership ability as well. The Huskies captain put up respectable offense in each of his seasons at St. Cloud and by the end was also a responsible defensive asset. He even has a summer coaching gig at St. Cloud hockey camps. Peterson got a taste of the pro game with a brief tryout with the AHL’s Rochester Americans to end the year and seems like a good bet to challenge for an energy line role with an NHL team down the road, if not right away. Prediction: NHL contract

D Steven Johnson, Minnesota (LAK, Rd. 4 – 2014)

It’s somewhat surprising to see Johnson still unsigned. After wrapping up his season with the Gophers, Johnson jumped right in with the Kings’ AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign and didn’t look out of place in four games. The two-way defender led all Minnesota defensemen with 15 points last year and was one of the team’s ice time leaders. He will likely transition well to the AHL after facing tough Big Ten competition and could help an NHL club relatively soon as a depth option. Prediction: AHL contract

F Avery Peterson, Minnesota – Duluth (MIN, Rd. 6 – 2013)

Another strange player to see available, Peterson is a Minnesota native drafted by the Wild out of Grand Rapids High School and starring for Duluth over the past two years, including helping the team to a National Championship in April. Peterson got off to a rough start in his first two collegiate seasons at Nebraska-Omaha, but since transferring has really turned his game around. He isn’t a high-skill player, but he has the rare combination of both size and speed and can be a useful bottom-six player. He has okay odds of landing an NHL deal, but Minnesota did seem like the most likely spot. It seems more likely that he starts in the minors. Prediction: AHL contract

F Shane Eiserman, New Hampshire (OTT, Rd. 4 – 2014)

Eiserman is a good, consistent forward and a former member of the U.S. National Development Program. However, he has never quite reached the ceiling that some thought he may have. As a one-dimensional scoring forward with just pedestrian offensive numbers, Eiserman still needs to polish his game and find out where he fits at the pro level. Prediction: AHL contract

F Aidan Muir, Western Michigan (EDM, Rd. 4 – 2013)

A big, physical winger and a locker room leader for the Broncos, Muir is a nice asset for a team. However, the offense just isn’t there yet and the competition gets much harder at the next level. He can be a role player in the AHL and grow his game from there, but could slip into ECHL territory. Prediction: AHL contract

D Johnathan MacLeod, Boston University (TBL, Rd. 2 – 2014)

In this day and age, just playing for BU is a sign of talent. Add a second-round draft position and you may think that you’re looking at a Chad Krys clone. Unfortunately, MacLeod lacks similar potential. Amidst the talent of the Terriers blue line, MacLeod’s inability to make plays at the college level cost him games through the years. He never cracked double-digits in points and only mustered 3 points as a senior. Perhaps his ability will shine through at the AHL, as his resume alone should get him to that level to begin with. Prediction: AHL contract

D Michael Prapavessis, RPI (DAL, Rd. 4 – 2014)

Prapavessis put up good numbers in his college career, especially for a defenseman. Unfortunately, RPI simply isn’t an elite program and leading that team isn’t worth as much as others. Prapavessis has both talent and intelligence and could still be a surprise. He may wind up in the AHL right away, but more likely he will have to work his way up. Prediction: ECHL contract

D Jack Glover, Minnesota (WIN, Rd. 3 – 2014)

Glover may have led the Gophers in plus/minus last season and is certainly a defensive force, but his skating and offensive game simply leave too much to be desired. Prediction: ECHL contract

F Tyler Bird, Brown (CLB, Rd. 5 – 2014)

Bird got better offensively as his career with the Bears wore on, but he still was less than spectacular at putting up points. His lack of a defensive game leaves little upside otherwise. Prediction: ECHL contract

 

Poll: Which 2014 Draft Pick Would You Rather Have On Your Team?

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Dylan Larkin hit the news today when he inked a five-year, $30.5MM ($6.1MM AAV) contract with the Detroit Red Wings which will take him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2023. That will be nearly a decade since he was drafted 15th overall in 2014, a year that is still recent enough to not be able to make clear definitions of the players taken in the first round. Aaron Ekblad was the first-overall selection that year and has turned into a very good defenseman for the Florida Panthers, though has been slowed in recent seasons by head and neck injuries. Leon Draisaitl was the third-overall pick and quickly established himself as a pillar of the contender that the Edmonton Oilers were trying to build, signing an eight-year $68MM contract last summer. Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett were second and fourth respectively and have been underwhelming, though the former will now be surrounded by the best supporting cast he’s seen since joining the Buffalo Sabres.

Lower down in the first round though there is a group of forwards that are constantly compared. Larkin is included in this group, which also stars William Nylander (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers (9th), and David Pastrnak (25th). Nick Schmaltz (20th) may be soon included in any comparison, but has only just finished his first full season in the NHL. Other forwards around this part of the draft lag significantly behind in point totals, but these four have all already established themselves as key parts of their team’s offense. Pastrnak leads the way with a 0.80 points/game rate, while Nylander falls in just behind him at 0.73. Ehlers signed a seven-year extension with the Jets last fall which is about to kick in and pays him an average of $6MM for the next seven years. Pastrnak, who stepped almost directly into the NHL, inked a six-year deal a year ago which pays him $6.67MM per season. He proceeded to record an 80-point campaign in the first year of it, immediately making him a bargain for the Bruins.

Nylander is the last of the group to be signed long-term, and the Toronto Maple Leafs now find themselves at something of a crossroads. With Larkin’s deal coming in shorter and more expensive than Ehlers’ extension, the Maple Leafs are likely looking at something more akin to Pastrnak’s deal. It could very well even eclipse that $6.67MM number if the team tries to buy out several UFA seasons, which the Red Wings were only able to secure one of with Larkin. Though Nylander has made it clear he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Maple Leafs, the team might be forced into a bridge deal just so they can fit all of their young talent in alongside John Tavares’ huge free agent deal.

Since these four are so closely linked and compensated, there is an obvious question that arises. Who would you rather have on your team? Though Pastrnak has the upper hand in point production at the moment, he’s also been able to play on a line with some of the best in the league in Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Only Larkin plays center with any consistency, though Nylander has spent time there in the past. The added defensive responsibility in the middle might make him a better choice to build a team around, though he has lagged behind offensively through his first few seasons. Ehlers comes with three years of UFA status already purchased, and likely will have the lowest cap hit of the bunch. His $6MM cap hit is more than reasonable now, and should be a bargain as the cap continues to grow.

Cast your vote below for the player you would want most, including the contract situation they now come with. Make sure to leave your explanation in the comment section below.

Which 2014 draft pick would you want most?
David Pastrnak 53.70% (964 votes)
William Nylander 19.44% (349 votes)
Dylan Larkin 15.54% (279 votes)
Nikolaj Ehlers 11.31% (203 votes)
Total Votes: 1,795

Overseas Notes: Lundestrom, Vesalainen, Free Agents, Paille

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While the Anaheim Ducks finalized an entry-level contract with newest first-round pick Isac Lundestrom yesterday, don’t expect to see him donning a Ducks jersey right away. Beat writer Eric Stephens reports that Lundestrom is expected to remain in Sweden for at least one more year to finish out his contract with the SHL’s Lulea. This would line up with the specifics of Lundestrom’s contract, which contains a European Assignment Clause for next season. After that, Lundestrom’s future is more of a mystery, but the high-ceiling center is still relatively raw and likely a few seasons away from an NHL debut.

  • Another prospect in limbo between the NHL and Europe is the Winnipeg Jets’ 2017 first-rounder, Kristian Vesalainen. The 19-year-old power forward had a breakout campaign last year, recording 43 point in 49 games between HPK and Karpat of the Liiga, the top pro league in his native Finland, and impressing at the World Juniors. However, Vesalainen’s contract in Finlad has expired and he remains an unsigned – and highly sought-after – free agent across the continent, having now spent time in both Sweden and Finland. Yet, Vesalainen may be holding out for a spot with the Jets this season. The budding young star has yet to sign his entry-level contract, but may be hoping that he can somehow work his way in to a loaded forward corps in Winnipeg. Otherwise, one would think that he would have already signed with another team in Europe.
  • Speaking of European free agents, Vesalainen is not the only recognizable name still available who played overseas last season. After a point-per-game season with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA, Mason Raymond still remains unsigned, perhaps hoping for NHL interest. Raymond, offensive defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti, and capable two-way forward Nick Spaling highlight NLA players awaiting jobs, while Brandon Gormley and Jonathon Blum are puck-moving defenders still looking for a contract after playing in the SHL and KHL respectively last year. In Finland, veteran defenseman Henrik Tallinder has remained productive well into his late thirties but is still looking for another shot, while consistent forward Jesse Saarinen, a top 20 per-game scorer in the Liiga, also remains unemployed.
  • Joining the list of European free agents today is long-time NHL checking forward Daniel Paille. Paille, 34, spent 11 years with the Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, and New York Rangers before departing for Sweden in 2016. Paille signed a three-year deal with Brynas IF of the SHL and played well in his first season. However, injuries limited the two-way forward to just 14 games last season and Brynas decided to move on. The team announced today that both they and Paille have mutually agreed to terminate the final year of the contract, allowing Brynas to get out from under the contract and allowing Paille to focus on getting healthy. At this point, it is unclear if Paille will be actively looking for work this season or if he is leaning toward taking the year off or perhaps hanging up the skates for good.

 

Free Agent Profile: Steve Mason

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Only a season ago, Steve Mason was a highly-sought after goaltender and was rewarded with a probably unrealistic two-year deal worth $4.1MM AAV from the Winnipeg Jets. However, many were surprised the 30-year-old goaltender received such a deal for a player who has had a roller-coaster career from sharp highs to inconsistent lows.

That certainly came to play as Mason suffered through multiple injuries, including several concussions, which allowed Connor Hellebuyck to claim the starting job outright and put up a dominating season. Mason, meanwhile, who many thought would split responsibilities in net with Hellebuyck, settled into a backup role, but couldn’t stay healthy enough to help the Jets during their playoff run. In the end, Mason posted a 3.24 GAA and a .906 save percentage in 13 games.

That was enough for Winnipeg, who needed to free up cap space as they shipped packaged promising Joel Armia with Mason and shipped them to Montreal. From there Mason was bought out, leaving him an unrestricted free agent.

While his numbers have steadily worsened over the past four years, Mason has been inconsistent throughout his year with several seasons in which he has posted amazing numbers like when he put up a 2.25 GAA and a .928 save percentage in 51 games in the 2014-15 season. Despite his struggles, if the veteran can prove healthy, he could provide solid backup minutes for a team in need.

Potential Suitors

While many teams are set in goal, there are quite a few who could use help. The first place that might seem to make sense would be the Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, who traded away backup Philipp Grubauer to save their own cap space, leaving them minor league veteran Pheonix Copley. Mason could provide the team with a preferred veteran solution, but that’s assuming that Mason would take quite the pay cut considering the team’s cap issues.

The Rangers might be another team that could use an emergency veteran. New York is considering playing Alexandar Georgiev as their backup, but could use a more veteran presence if the 22 year old fails. The Blackhawks could also be an ideal place. Even though the team added Cam Ward, it’s already been announced that starter Corey Crawford will likely not be ready to start the season with the team, so adding Mason could add some much needed depth if he goes down for any extended period of time.

Projected Contract

While he managed to garner $4.1MM a year ago, it’s likely Mason will have to accept a deal under the $1MM mark and may even have to take a PTO deal at this point. The veteran could also wait out training camp to see if any goaltenders go down with injuries and hope to grab a backup spot then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

Snapshots: Doan, Karlsson, Nemeth

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The Arizona Coyotes will retire the first number in the history of their franchise when they raise Shane Doan’s #19 sweater to the rafters this season. The ceremony will take place on February 24th, fittingly against the Winnipeg Jets where Doan started his career. Doan’s Jets turned into the Coyotes after just one season in Winnipeg, and he would spend the next two decades growing the game of hockey in an extremely non-traditional market.

His influence on the Coyotes was obvious, recording 972 points in 1,540 career games and serving as captain for more than a dozen seasons, but his legacy may best be remembered by the players that come after him. Auston Matthews is already a star in the NHL, and credits Doan as one of the biggest reasons he wanted to become a hockey player in the first place.

  • Craig Custance of The Athletic tweets that there is no contract imminent between the Vegas Golden Knights and restricted free agent William Karlsson, meaning his August 4th arbitration hearing is still scheduled. Karlsson is an incredibly difficult case to handicap, after exploding for 43 goals and 78 points this season despite scoring just 15 and 45 over his first two NHL seasons. The Golden Knights have already handed out several long-term contracts to players they deem core pieces, and could still work something out with Karlsson over the next few days.
  • Adrian Dater of BSN Denver reports (subscription required) that the Colorado Avalanche will announce a settlement with Patrik Nemeth today, avoiding his arbitration hearing on Saturday. Nemeth was one of just three players left with a hearing on the books after Cody Ceci and Gemel Smith met with the arbitrator today, though was still outside the period where a salary ask was required to be submitted. After finding himself in an increased role with the Avalanche this season, Nemeth recorded 15 points in 68 games and was a key part of their penalty kill.

Nic Petan Re-Signs With Winnipeg Jets

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Wednesday: The team has officially announced the contract, clarifying that Petan’s salary will actually be $874,125 at the NHL level.

Tuesday: The Winnipeg Jets still have several restricted free agents to sign this summer, but at least one can be crossed off the list. Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that Nic Petan has re-signed on a one-year two-way contract that carries a salary of $874K in the NHL.

Petan, 23, has seemingly been passed over on the Winnipeg depth chart despite another successful minor league campaign in 2017-18. The second-round pick put up 52 points in 52 games for the Manitoba Moose, but was given just 15 games with the Jets and now sits at a career crossroads. While he obviously brings plenty of offensive talent, the Jets lineup is already overflowing with forward options and Petan’s size limits the impact he can make in other aspects of the game. This season though brings a different wrinkle for the team, as he is no longer waiver-exempt. That means to send him back to Manitoba the Jets would have to expose him to the rest of the league, an opportunity sure to be taken by some rebuilding team with a spot up front.

Because of that status, Petan may get a chance to start the year with the Jets and prove he can be a reliable NHL player. The team did lose Paul Stastny, Matt Hendricks and Joel Armia this offseason, leaving at least a little wiggle room at the bottom of the roster for players like Petan and Brendan Lemieux to carve out roles. If he can’t crack the lineup, the chance of a trade always persists for players who would likely be claimed on waivers. The Jets might feel as though they need to get something for their asset, even though he’s not providing much for the NHL club.

Petan will be a restricted free agent again next offseason, and should be arbitration eligible. He’ll be doing everything he can to prove that he deserves a one-way deal, and should be motivated in any chance he does receive.

The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III

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Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:

Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining

Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera’s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining

The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.

San Jose Sharks: None

Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.

St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining

The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining

The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining

The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining

It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.

Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining

No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.

Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining

The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.

Tampa Bay May Still Be Looking For More Defense

at CDT | by 1 Comment

With the current high demands from Ottawa in a possible Erik Karlsson trade making it less and less likely that anything will happen, the Tampa Bay Lightning must choose whether they should be content with their defense or need to find another fit.

On paper, the team seems more solid than most as the team boasts Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh to go with promising Mikhail Sergachev and a host of solid blueline depth, including Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn, Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek. Yet when looking a step further, their elite defensemen are all left-handed. Hedman, McDonaugh and Sergachev are all left-handed, leaving Stralman, Dotchin and Girardi on the right, which isn’t nearly as solid. While Sergachev has proven he can play on the right side, that isn’t ideal for the Lightning, which was another reason why the team was intent on adding the right-handed Karlsson.

In a mailbag segment, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests the team needs to continue looking for a right-handed defenseman to even out both sides, suggesting the team should monitor the Jacob Trouba situation in Winnipeg since the stud defenseman refuses to sign a long-term deal with the Jets. Trouba, who received a one-year, $5.5MM deal from an arbitrator last week will have to go through the same process next year as he will be a restricted free agent again. If the two sides can’t reach long-term agreement then, he will be an unrestricted free agent in 2020-21 and might force his way out of Winnipeg.

Another option, Smith writes, would be prying Justin Faulk away from the Carolina Hurricanes. The right-shot defenseman has two years remaining on his contract at $4.83MM AAV, but with the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan and the plethora of young defensive talent on the roster, including Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean, the team is expected to move Faulk for more help in other areas.

One final option and perhaps the cheapest would be to trade for Vancouver Canucks’ Chris Tanev. The 28-year-old stay-at-home defender has been solid for the Canucks, but is being overpaid at $4.45MM for the next two seasons. The right-handed defenseman would be a reliable presence.

Regardless, the team needs to shake up their defense. Coburn and Girardi, who have played bigger roles in the past, are better off as third-pairing defenders, while Sergachev played the best hockey of his career during the playoffs, suggesting he’s likely going to move into the top-four. Dotchin and Koekkoek are also both likely going to fight for time in the top-six, so something needs to change.

 

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