Capitals Rumors

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $88,821,666 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Martin Fehervary (one year, $791K)
F Connor McMichael ($two years, $863K)

McMichael had a relatively quiet rookie campaign with the Capitals easing him into the thick of things.  If he gets put into a more prominent role this season due to injuries, his offensive production could jump to a point where Washington wants to do something longer-term but at this point, a bridge deal is likely heading his way two years from now.

Fehervary’s rookie campaign was more impressive.  He ranked third among Washington’s defensemen in ATOI while chipping in with plenty of physicality and some decent secondary production.  This is the type of profile that some teams will look to try to do a long-term deal now to try to get him at a lower rate than market value at the end of the deal (think six years and an AAV over $3MM) but Fehervary would be better off waiting until next summer as a repeat performance could push a bridge deal towards the $2.5MM mark.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Connor Brown ($3.6MM, UFA)
F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($800K, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($750K, UFA)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Marcus Johansson ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM, UFA)
F Conor Sheary ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Dylan Strome ($3.5MM, RFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($950K, UFA)

Brown was Washington’s big addition up front this summer, coming over in a trade from Ottawa.  With the Sens, he became a crucial two-way winger that can log heavy minutes but he likely won’t need to play 20 minutes a night with the Capitals which won’t help Brown’s market next summer.  Right now, his next AAV should be in the $4.5MM range but if he’s able to show more offensively, he could surpass the $5MM threshold.  Eller has been a solid third center for a long time in Washington for the last six years but is getting toward the point where there should be an expectation of diminishing returns.  A return is definitely possible but after being at this AAV for nine years (including this one), he’s likely looking at a small dip a year from now.

How Strome fares will also play a role in Eller’s future.  Non-tendered by Chicago, he signed with Washington where he’ll have a legitimate shot at a consistent top-six role.  If he thrives, they’re likely to want to keep him over Eller moving forward.  He had a strong market this summer in free agency and even a decent season in the 40-point range should nudge him towards at least a small raise next summer where he will once again be arbitration-eligible.  Hagelin’s short-term future is in question as he tries to work his way back from an eye injury.  He has been skating but didn’t suit up in the preseason.  At this point, if he gets another deal, it’ll be a one-year agreement at a substantially lower rate (closer to the minimum) while he’s heading for LTIR to start the season.

Sheary is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and should be in line for a similar spot on the depth chart this year.  That said, his profile (small and skilled) is the one we’ve seen have weaker markets than expected in free agency lately.  Another 40-point season wouldn’t hurt his value but he might be someone that lands closer to $2MM on the open market than $3MM even with that production.  Hathaway had a career year last season with 14 goals which chipping in with his usual physicality.  Depth players often don’t have big markets in free agency but if he produces near that level again, power forwards are the exception which could push his AAV over the $2MM mark.  Johansson decided to stick around after being brought back at the deadline and after two straight low-price, one-year deals, it’s safe to say that this is his market moving forward unless he has a surprisingly strong offensive season.

Onto the defense where all but one player is on an expiring deal this season.  Orlov is the most prominent of the group and is also coming off a career season offensively.  A few years ago, he was logging upwards of 23 minutes a night but over the last two years, that has dipped to the point where his usage is more of a second-pairing player which is notable.  He’ll be 32 next season and while the offensive boost helps, that should more or less offset the reduced role.  Orlov will still get a long-term deal but if he prioritizes getting as long of a deal as possible, there’s a chance that the AAV could come in slightly below his current rate.  Otherwise, a medium-term agreement should cost somewhere in the $5.5MM to $6MM range.

Jensen also had the best year of his career and provided some value on what previously looked like a deal that was well above market value.  Even so, his long-term track record is that of a third-pairing player and that will be hard to shake.  The fact he’s right-handed certainly helps (the side that’s typically in higher demand) but it’s hard to forecast a raise at this point.  A similar season to 2021-22 could help him land a similar AAV next summer though.  Gustafsson, van Riemsdyk, and Irwin are all veteran depth players who aren’t going to command sizable raises at this point of their careers.  It’s possible that van Riemsdyk will eclipse the $1MM mark but he shouldn’t get much more than that while the other two are likely to be close to the minimum moving forward.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Anthony Mantha ($5.7MM, UFA)
F Tom Wilson ($5.167MM, UFA)

The Capitals paid a high price to acquire Mantha and they haven’t been rewarded for it thus far as the veteran has missed most of the last two seasons due to injuries.  When he has played, he hasn’t produced at the level of someone at his current AAV either.  Some of that again is injury-related but it’s safe to say that they haven’t got what they bargained for from Mantha so far.  The same can’t be said for Wilson.  His contract seemed like a considerable overpayment at the time to many but that isn’t the case now.  Despite the penalty and suspension trouble he gets into, he produces at a high enough rate to make him a true top-six power forward which is something that is very hard to find and is always in high demand.  At this point, he should surpass the $6MM mark on his next deal.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Nicklas Backstrom ($9.2MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($1.3MM, UFA)
F Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7.8MM, UFA)
G Charlie Lindgren ($1.1MM, UFA)
F T.J. Oshie ($5.75MM, UFA)

Backstrom picked the right time to sign this contract as it came just before the pandemic shutdown that has since flattened the cap; had he waited, the AAV almost certainly would have been lower.  His hip injury situation has been well-documented and he’ll begin the year on LTIR.  It wouldn’t be surprising if he was there for the entire year which would give Washington some extra space to work with this season.  Kuznetsov has had some ups and downs which makes the value he provides each year range from poor to solid.  He’s coming off a year that saw him produce at nearly a point per game and if he stays near that mark, they’ll get good value moving forward.  With Backstrom out long-term, there’s extra pressure on Kuznetsov now.

Oshie saw his output dip sharply last season on a points-per-game basis which wasn’t entirely unexpected as he’s now 35.  He’s in the back half of the long-term deal he signed which provided Washington with some cap-friendly years and now they’re entering the years that won’t be so team-friendly.  Dowd is being paid as a fourth-line center but his usage has been closer to that of a third liner the last couple of seasons and as someone that can kill penalties, win draws, and can score at a decent depth rate, the Capitals are doing quite well with this deal.  He’ll be 35 when this deal is up though so chances are that he won’t be able to command much more than this on his next contract.

Lindgren has spent the majority of his career in the minors but is coming off a strong season in the minors that was good enough to land him a three-year guarantee.  Notably, the full amount can be buried in the AHL without cap penalty if he struggles but if he can give them 20-25 serviceable starts, Washington will be pleased with the contract and he’ll be boosting his value for his next trip through free agency.

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