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Morning Notes: Hurricanes, Predators, Strome

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The Carolina Hurricanes were one of the few NHL teams in action yesterday, but weren’t able to put up much of a fight against the San Jose Sharks, losing 3-1. After the game, head coach Bill Peters had a lot to say about the effort of his team, and Luke DeCock of the News & Observer encapsulated the comments in a scathing review of the club.

Whether Peters’ angry exclamation that the Hurricanes “can’t put that group out again after that” will actually spark some movement from GM Ron Francis is unclear, but the team certainly isn’t satisfied with how they’ve played. Carolina has lost two in a row but still find themselves only one point out of a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. If there was ever a time to push some chips to the middle and try for a playoff push, now might be it.

  • The Nashville Predators are one of the deepest teams in the NHL, and will only improve in that regard when Mike Fisher returns to the lineup at some point over the next few weeks. Still, that isn’t stopping GM David Poile from looking around for another forward. Adam Vingan of the Tennessean reports that Poile could still go after a top-six winger, and points out that the Predators have a ton of cap room to fit in even the most expensive players.
  • Though his short NHL stints haven’t gone perfectly, Dylan Strome continues to impress in the minor leagues. The 20-year old Arizona Coyotes forward is leading the league in points-per-game with 41 in 32 games, and will look to continue that dominance tonight against the San Jose Barracuda. Strome, the third-overall pick from 2015, has just two points in 18 NHL contests but is still a big part of the Coyotes future plans. If Max Domi truly is on the block in the desert, Arizona will need Strome to take the next step before long and help fill some of the offensive burden that Domi has struggled with at times this season.

Minor Transactions: 2/4/18

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After a full slate of games Saturday, the NHL only has a three-game schedule on Super Bowl Sunday, the most interesting of which is the early game which matches up the Vegas Golden Knights with the Washington Capitals. With most teams having played last night, there may be quite a few roster moves made today to get ready for the new week.

  • The New Jersey Devils announced they have assigned goaltender goaltender Ken Appleby to the Binghamton Devils and recalled goaltender Eddie Lack. Appleby was recalled back on Jan. 20 on emergency loan after backup goalie Keith Kinkaid went on injured reserve and starter Cory Schneider went down with a groin injury. Appleby played well in his three appearances as he had a 1.45 GAA and a .945 save percentage in that time. While Kinkaid has been activated, Schneider is still not skating yet. Lack, who has been injured recently, finally returned to Binghamton’s lineup and stopped 28 of 30 shots, and might be the preferred backup until Schneider returns to the team.
  • NHL.com’s Brian Hedger writes that the Columbus Blue Jackets have assigned defenseman Cameron Gaunce to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL after having been recalled Saturday. He did not play in last night’s game and still hasn’t made his NHL debut this season. The 27-year-old blueliner has two goals and 10 assists in 36 games for Cleveland. The assignment suggests that defenseman Ryan Murray might be ready to return for Columbus.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins swapped goaltenders today as the team has recalled Tristan Jarry from the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, according to Pittsburgh Post-Gazzette’s Jason Mackey. The team also assigned Casey DeSmith to their AHL team. Jarry has played 18 games for Pittsburgh this year, backing up Matt Murray. The 22-year-old has a 2.44 GAA and a .919 save percentage. DeSmith has also fared well in just seven appearances for the NHL club. He owns a 2.24 GAA and a .926 save percentage.
  • The New York Rangers announced that they have recalled forward Vinni Lettieri from the Hartford Wolf Pack. Lettieri was assigned to Hartford on Jan. 26. In 10 games for the Rangers, he has one goal and three assists. He has fared well in Hartford as he has 14 goals and 23 points in 35 AHL games. Lettieri should fill the roster spot for forward Jimmy Vesey, who isn’t expected to play Monday after taking a hit from Nashville’s Filip Forsberg.
  • The Boston Bruins announced they have assigned forward Austin Czarnik to the Providence Bruins Sunday. The 25-year-old forward was recalled on emergency loan Saturday. The diminutive forward did play in last night’s game, picking up an assist in 9:07 of playing time in the Bruins 4-1 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have assigned goaltender Adin Hill to the Tucson Roadrunners Sunday. He was recalled as an emergency replacement on Friday after starter Antti Raanta was in a car accident. Raanta wasn’t hurt, but was held out for precautionary reasons. Hill didn’t see any time. He has played in three games for Arizona, but has struggled with a 3.76 GAA. The 21-year-old has fared better with Tucson as he has 2.59 in 20 appearances.
  • NHL.com’s Alex Stepneski tweets the Dallas Stars have assigned goaltender Landon Bow to the Texas Stars of the AHL. Bow was recalled Saturday after starter Ben Bishop took a puck to the head. A concussion had been ruled out, but the team removed him for precautionary reasons. Bow’s assignment suggests Bishop will be ready for their next game.

Arizona Listening To Offers For Domi

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It’s a shame that the Hockey Hall of Fame voted long ago to abolish the selection committee’s ability to waive the three-year post-retirement waiting period for candidates that are exceptional. Because if there is someone that shouldn’t have to wait three years to gain entry into the Hockey Hall of Fame, Jaromir Jagr would seem to be a good bet that person, according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post.

While Jagr is not retired yet, as he remains on loan from the Calgary Flames to Kladno in the Czech League, his career has been exceptional and would deserve that immediate honor of getting his wait time waived that only 10 players have ever earned such as Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe and Mario Lemieux. However, that rule was removed back in 1999. Regardless, Jagr has played in 1,733 career NHL games, with 766 goals and 1,921 points.

  • In the same article, Brooks also writes that he’s heard the Arizona Coyotes are offering young center Max Domi to teams for the right price. The 22-year-old former first-round pick in 2013 has been struggling in his third season in the NHL. After a solid rookie year in which he put up 18 goals and 34 assists, his numbers have declined as he put up just 38 points in 59 games last year and currently has just three goals in 52 games. The team already moved on from winger Anthony Duclair a month ago as the Coyotes are trying to find the right balance of youth and veterans to start winning some games.
  • The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford (subscription required) responds to mailbag questions and suggests that if New York Islanders center John Tavares reaches free agency this summer, he believes the St. Louis Blues will be aggressive suitors for the 27-year-old center. The scribe writes that the team is expecting to have about $13MM available and it should cost between $10 and $12MM to sign Tavares. That will likely make for a tight cap, especially since the team still has to sign several of their own free agents including restricted free agent defenseman Joel Edmundson. However, with the salary cap likely going up and the ability to move out a contract or two, it is very possible the team can afford Tavares. Add in that Tavares is friends with defenseman Alex Pietrangelo and the team is already a playoff team with young winger Vladimir Tarasenko needing a star center to take that next step, there is a good chance he will strongly consider St. Louis. It’s still a long shot, but not unrealistic.
  • NHL.com’s Gary Lawless tweets part of an interview with Vegas Golden Knights general manager George McPhee about the trade deadline. The veteran GM says that its still too early to know whether the team will be buyers, sellers or plan to stand pat. “We still don’t know what we’re going to do at the deadline,” said McPhee. “We’re still three weeks away. We’ll know more when we get there. Every team in the league has needs… We’ll see. I like our group. I don’t know if we’re going to do a lot, if anything.”

The Odds Of Drafting A Superstar And The 2018 NHL Draft

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Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Tyler Dellow went to work trying to figure out how the Ottawa Senators could maximize their trade return (subscription required) for Erik Karlsson, should the team decide to move the all-world defenseman prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on February 26th or at least before the 2018 NHL Entry Draft on June 22nd. Dellow surmised that in order to get anywhere near a fair return for Karlsson, Ottawa would need to acquire draft picks that could give them the best chance of finding a “franchise cornerstone” to replace him. The best-case-scenario for the Sens would obviously be to land the #1 overall pick in the lottery and the opportunity to draft the consensus top pick, Karlsson clone Rasmus Dahlin – a scenario that would not even require moving Karlsson. However, with the Arizona Coyotes and Buffalo Sabres likely having better lottery odds and another 12 teams having a chance at the top pick as well, its unlikely that the Senators choose first overall. Dahlin’s generational talent also means the lucky team that lands #1 isn’t moving it, even for Karlsson. So what then is the chance of finding a superstar in the draft? Dellow’s analysis produced these results:

  • First pick: 90 percent,
  • Second pick: 60 percent
  • Third or Fourth pick: 15 percent
  • Picks 5-20: 5 percent
  • Picks 21-30: 2 percent
  • Picks 31-60: 1 percent
  • Picks 61+:  .07 percent

While there is a considerable drop-off from the first pick to the second and the second to the third, it’s clear that picks #2 and #3 still hold immense value. Dellow goes on to describe the infrequency with which those picks are moved, citing Alexei Yashin-for-Jason Spezza and the drafting of Henrik and Daniel Sedin are rare recent examples. Dellow’s thesis continues that the current Vancouver Canucks could be a rare team willing to part with a high pick, if it meant landing Karlsson.

However what if Karlsson isn’t traded by the Draft – a situation that is far more likely than the media would make it out to be – would the normally untouchable top three picks be back off the table? Obviously, the results of the draft lottery matter immensely and the #1 pick will surely not be moved this year. More likely than not, #2 is going nowhere as well. Yet, the status of the 2018 draft class leads to much intrigue over the #3 pick, which historically has a 15% chance of landing a superstar. Unlike past years, there is no consensus second-best player in 2018. In some order, Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick were going 1-2 in 2017, as were Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine in 2016, and no one was going right behind Connor McDavid other than Jack Eichel in 2015. This year’s crop offers a situation unlike the last few seasons, wherein Dahlin is guaranteed to go first overall – and will be off the draft board of everyone but the lottery winner before the draft even begins – but the following picks are unpredictable. At #2, it could be Russian sniper Andrei Svechnikov, sleek Czech forward Filip Zadina, big, skilled Americans Brady Tkachuk or Oliver Wahlstrom, or a D-needy team with the second pick could even go off the board for a defenseman.

The decision on the second overall pick in 2018 will undeniably result in the top player on many teams’ board being selected, but the top player on many other teams’ board falling to #3. If that team at third overall was hoping to take the player selected at #2, now things could get interesting. According to Dellow’s results, the team at #3 has now lost a 45% chance of finding their next franchise player, but could trade out of the pick and still end up with one (or more) top 20 pick(s), each with a 5% chance of becoming a star, as well as possibly an established pick or player. If you put trust into a model like Dellow’s, a deal like this becomes much more about math and odds than simply taking the risk of trading back out of disappointment with the draft order.

Going back to the Karlsson-to-Vancouver hypothetical, imagine that the Canucks land the #3 overall pick while the Senators have a pick in the 5-20 range, either by the lottery or an additional pick from an upcoming trade. Vancouver hypothetically wanted Zadina, who went #2, while the top player on Ottawa’s board was Tkachuk (or maybe a defenseman like Adam Boqvist). Vancouver could, as Dellow proposes, offer the Sens the third pick – and a 15% chance at a star – and a prospect like Olli Juolevi, the fifth overall pick in 2016 – who holds a 5% chance of becoming a star himself – as part of a larger package for Karlsson and a first. Ottawa nets a 20% chance of adding a cornerstone player, including at least one potential replacement on the blue line, and Vancouver holds onto a 5% chance of finding a star of their own with the later first rounder. The 10% loss for Vancouver is more than made up by the gain of a bona fide star in Karlsson. Could a deal like this happen? For sure. Will it? Probably not, but Dellow’s analysis of draft pick values and a seemingly volatile draft board in 2018 helps to illuminate the possibilities of some fascinating, unprecedented deals early on at the 2018 Draft.

Arizona Coyotes Decide Not To Start Antti Raanta At Last Minute

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11:00pm: Morgan reports that Raanta was involved in a car accident on the way to the game, and was given the night off for precautionary reasons. The goaltender is unharmed.

8:25pm: The Arizona Coyotes are back in action tonight, and were expected to have Antti Raanta back in net as they take on the Dallas Stars. Instead, Scott Wedgewood took the net at the last minute without an explanation. Craig Morgan of AZ Sports reports that the move was not disciplinary, that he hasn’t been traded, and that Raanta was supposed to still be the backup for the game. Oddly though, he isn’t on the bench yet.

Raanta has been included in trade rumors since the Coyotes dropped out of contention, but GM John Chayka has recently said that he didn’t plan on making any big moves, including trading his starting goaltender. Instead, this move might be related to an illness or some other injury.

Still, it’s intriguing to follow Raanta as we close in on the trade deadline. The goaltender is on an expiring contract after being acquired in the offseason, and could represent an upgrade for several teams around the league. The 28-year old has a .919 save percentage on the season even as he’s battled injuries, and could get a large raise in the summer to become a full-time starter in either Arizona or elsewhere around the league.

Coyotes Unlikely To Make Major Move By The Trade Deadline

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With Arizona sitting dead last in the standings league-wide, it would be reasonable to think that GM John Chayka may be looking to shake things up.  However, he told Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports that this isn’t likely to be the case:

“I’ve had numerous discussions on a lot of different players. If there’s a chance to make our team better I’ll do it, but in the past there was a lot of need for guys to get a fresh start or to infuse youth. There were some underlying changes we were trying to make. I don’t think that’s the case any longer.

“I think the core players are in place and they need some time and some experience surrounded by the right players. We’ve got some pieces in place that we like. Now, we’re just seeing if there are some things we can tweak to try and improve. There is nothing underlying that I think needs a significant change.”

While the Coyotes may inevitably need more than tweaks, Chayka may also prefer to wait until the offseason to make his more significant changes.  That was the case over the summer when he added center Derek Stepan and defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson in a pair of significant draft day deals.  His statement should also pour more cold water over the notion of moving defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, an idea that continues to linger despite Chayka dismissing the idea earlier this season.

One player that Arizona will have to make a decision on soon is goaltender Antti Raanta.  The pending unrestricted free agent could be one of the more prominent goalies to move in the next month but that’s only if they’re unable to agree on a contract extension.  Chayka stated in an interview with Arizona Sports (audio link) that they are going to start having conversations soon regarding a new deal but that he doesn’t believe there is any urgency to get something done.  Raanta is making just $1MM and will undoubtedly be seeking a much larger salary on his next contract.

Beyond their Finnish netminder, the Coyotes have a handful of other unrestricted free agents but they would be more depth acquisitions for contending teams and not ones that will add to or change Arizona’s core.  Among those is center Brad Richardson who, despite being classified as week-to-week back on January 25th due to an upper-body injury, skated with the team yesterday and could be ready to play on Thursday night against Dallas.

Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point

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It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:

Atlantic Division

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
  2. Boston Bruins – 115 points
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
  4. Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
  5. Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
  6. Florida Panthers – 77 points
  7. Ottawa Senators – 68 points
  8. Buffalo Sabres – 62 points

Metropolitan Division

  1. Washington Capitals – 105 points
  2. New Jersey Devils – 96 points
  3. Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
  4. Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
  6. New York Islanders – 90 points
  7. New York Rangers – 90 points
  8. Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points

Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus

Central Division

  1. Nashville Predators – 113 points
  2. Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
  3. St. Louis Blues – 101 points
  4. Dallas Stars – 98 points
  5. Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
  6. Minnesota Wild – 95 points
  7. Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points

Pacific Division

  1. Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
  2. San Jose Sharks – 101 points
  3. Calgary Flames – 97 points
  4. Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
  5. Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
  6. Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
  7. Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
  8. Arizona Coyotes – 54 points

Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary

The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

Trade Candidates: Jason Demers

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

With another dismal season in the desert, the Arizona Coyotes will once again attempt to unload their veteran players with the hopes of picking up some draft picks and opening roster spots so the team can promote some of their young talent in the minors. While the team may want to hold onto some of their offseason trade acquisitions a bit longer like Derek Stepan or Niklas Hjalmarsson, there are others such as defenseman Jason Demers, who the team will likely shop in hopes of finding a taker.

Contract

One reason Arizona was able to get Demers for such a cheap price (for Jamie McGinn) was that the Coyotes were willing to eat his contract. The 29-year-old defenseman still has three years remaining on the five-year, $22.5MM ($4.45MM AAV) deal he signed in 2016 with the Florida Panthers. However, the Panthers will retain $563K for each of the next four years, which brings his salary down to just under $4MM per year.

2017-18

While the Coyotes had high hopes that with the addition of Demers and Hjalmarsson to go with Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski and second-year defenseman Jakob Chychrun, the team’s defense and new goaltender Antti Raanta might stabilize their defense. That hasn’t happened, although Demers has played well with the Coyotes and been a consistent defensive presence all season. While his offensive numbers have been modest at best (three goals this year compared to nine last year), he has played well defensively and is averaging a solid 21:06 of ice time.

Season Stats

50 GP, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, -11 rating, 29 PIM, 21:46 ATOI, 51.1 CF%

Potential Suitors

While Demers is no rental player, the team has to hope a team is willing to take on three more years of his contract for a trade to work. Even if they were willing to retain some of his salary, finding a taker might be challenging. While the Toronto Maple Leafs have shown interest in Demers in previous years and might be looking for a defenseman, the likelihood they would be willing to take on his contract for three more years when their cap situation ready to explode at that time suggests they aren’t a great match. Perhaps a team with ample cap space such as the San Jose Sharks, the Colorado Avalanche or even the Winnipeg Jets might be willing to take on that contract. The New York Islanders also could use some defense, but would likely have to send some salary back to make a deal work.

Likelihood of a Trade

Arizona is likely more than willing, but again, it all comes down to whether any team wants to take on the three years remaining on his salary and how much Arizona might be willing to retain. Demers isn’t that high priced, but the defenseman is hardly that great player that will change a team’s playoff fortunes around. Yet, he is a solid, respectable defenseman who might make a solid pickup to a team’s defensive rotation.

Commissioner Notes: Goalie Interference, International Games, Expansion

at CDT | by 4 Comments

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the media prior to tonight’s All-Star’s Skills Competition and it didn’t take long for questions to arise about the controversial goaltender interference calls that have created an uproar. As reported earlier, the all-star coaches and league executives met with the league today to discuss the issues with goaltender interference. Bettman was quick to point out that he believes that everyone is overthinking the rule and plans to send a memo to officials suggesting they ease off when looking at video, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

“Overall, the system works,” Bettman said. “But I think we’ve gotten to the point where everyone is overlooking the review.”

The comments might suggest the league might be backing off on goaltender interference in the near future.

  • Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets that Bettman announced the 2019 NHL All-Star Game will be in San Jose on Jan. 26-27. It will be the first time its been there since 1997. St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann tweeted the St. Louis Blues are bidding to host the 2020 all-star game.
  • Johnston also tweets that Bettman said that the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers will start the 2018-19 regular season in Sweden. The Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers will play two regular season games against each other in Helsinki, Finland. The Devils tweeted they will also be playing in a preseason game in Switzerland.
  • TSN’s Daren Dreger tweets that Bettman said that the plan is to send two teams to China in September and continues to be a “work in progress.” Johnston adds that it’s expected the Calgary Flames and the Boston Bruins will be the two teams.
  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that Bettman was asked if the next expansion team (Seattle — if it happens, added Bettman) would get the same favorable expansion draft rules and player pool that the Vegas Golden Knights received. Bettman said, “Yes.” Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus tweets that Bettman added that any future expansion team would insist on the same expansion draft rules that Vegas took advantage of. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski tweets that Bettman said the ownership group working for a Seattle expansion bid is still working on their application. A timetable and ticket drive are up to them, but likely should be completed in one or two weeks, suggests LeBrun.
  • LeBrun tweets that he talked to NHLPA’s Don Fehr, who said that a potential World Cup tournament could happen in September of 2020 or February of 2020. However, there still would have to be a lot of work to be done.
  • LeBrun tweets that when asked whether adding a 32nd team through expansion would suggest the NHL should look into expanding the number of playoff teams, Bettman said ’No.’ He likes it at 16 teams.
  • Wyshysnki tweets that Bettman wasn’t positive about a possible expansion team coming from Quebec: “We’re not currently considering an application. At the current time, we’re not focused on a team in Quebec City. That doesn’t mean we’ll never be focused [on it].”
  • Wyshysnki tweets that on the topic of the Arizona Coyotes, the commissioner added that ownership is working through possibilities to build a new arena and the strength of the club comes down to the owners’ willingness to continue that pursuit. “I wouldn’t focus on Arizona moving right now. Or anytime soon. Or ever,” said Bettman.
  • Lazerus tweets that Bettman also wasn’t as positive about NHL players joining the Olympics in 2020. “I don’t have an answer to that question.” He said the clubs and owners find Olympic participation “disruptive.”

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