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Trade Deadline Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

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The calendar has now flipped to March which means the trade deadline is now just days away. Where does each team stand, and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

For the past several years, the Lightning have been legitimate Stanley Cup contenders but all teams eventually reach the point where they can no longer get to that level.  With Tampa Bay currently holding down the final Wild Card spot in the East, that point may very well have arrived.  However, don’t expect that to dissuade GM Julien BriseBois as he’ll almost certainly be looking to add to his roster in the coming days.

Record

32-24-6, 5th in the Atlantic

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$7.383MM of LTIR space on deadline day, 1/3 retention slots used, 45/50 contracts used, per CapFriendly.

Upcoming Draft Picks

2024: TB 3rd, TB 5th, TB 6th, CHI 7th, MIN 7th, TB 7th
2025: TB 2nd, TB 3rd, TB 4th, TB 5th, TB 6th, TB 7th

Tampa Bay previously traded their 2024 and 2025 first-round picks in the Brandon Hagel and Tanner Jeannot trades respectively.  Both of those selections are top-ten protected.

Trade Chips

The Lightning aren’t in a spot where they can realistically move away any of their core players from their roster so instead, their non-draft-pick chips are going to come from their prospect pool.  More specifically, players that might be on the cusp of an NHL opportunity might be their best options to deal from.

Up front, Waltteri Merela comes to mind as someone who fits that profile.  He was up with the Lightning for a good chunk of time at the start of the season – getting into 19 games – but eventually was sent to the minors where he has fared relatively well since then with 20 points in 34 games.  Signed last spring after some strong years in Finland, the 25-year-old fits as a potential low-cost player who could hold his own on the fourth line for a couple of years.  A restricted free agent this summer, Merela should land somewhere close to the league minimum with a one-way offer.  This type of profile isn’t the most exciting for trade purposes but teams may value that over one of their later-round selections.

Defensively, Emil Martinsen Lilleberg is in a similar situation.  He has played 21 games with the Lightning this season after signing with them in the spring, days after Arizona opted not to sign the 23-year-old.  Martinsen Lilleberg has played a sheltered role thus far but has put up positive possession numbers while logging a little under 16 minutes a night.  He has another year left on his entry-level deal and would likely be viewed as near NHL-ready depth, something sellers are often interested in.  Maxwell Crozier is in his first professional campaign and has suited up 11 times with the Lightning.  He’s also 23 and has another year left on his deal and falls into a similar category as Martinsen Lilleberg.

Their best trade chip, if they’re willing to move him, might be goaltender Hugo Alnefelt.  The 22-year-old has shown steady improvement in his first three years in North America and as things stand, he profiles as the eventual partner for Andrei Vasilevskiy who is signed through the 2027-28 season and likely isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.  Accordingly, the smarter play might be to move Alnefelt and with the year he’s having with AHL Syracuse (2.31 GAA, .910 SV% in 22 games), his value should be up.  If a selling team has a near-term opening coming in the crease, someone like Alnefelt would be appealing.

Of their unsigned prospects, Isaac Howard is the headliner.  The 19-year-old forward was a first-round pick in 2022 (31st overall) and after struggling in his freshman year at Minnesota-Duluth, he has been a point-a-game player at Michigan State.  With their next two first-round picks being spoken for, Howard is the one piece they have in their prospect pool that carries similar value.  If BriseBois is inquiring about anyone of significance, it won’t take long for the other team to ask about Howard.

Other Potential Trade Chips: F Alex Barre-Boulet, F Gage Goncalves, D Philippe Myers, F Eamon Powell

Team Needs

1) Defensive Upgrades – Injuries on the back end have been an issue for the Lightning this season, resulting in some of their youngsters getting early NHL opportunities.  But while most of those players have eventually come back, that isn’t the case for Mikhail Sergachev who is believed to be out for the rest of the regular season and a good chunk of the playoffs after undergoing surgery last month to stabilize fractures to his left tibia and fibula.  Their entire cap space is based on his presence on LTIR.  They need a top-four player at a minimum and potentially two to take some pressure off some of the players they have toward the bottom of their depth chart.

2) Backup Goalie Upgrade – Tampa Bay needs to have a low-cost backup goaltender with how their salary cap spending is structured, resulting in long-time third-string netminder Jonas Johansson getting the nod.  While he held his own early on when Vasilevskiy was injured, he has hardly played since then, playing just seven times since December.  When he has got the nod in that stretch, he hasn’t fared well, posting a save percentage of just .862.  While it’s quite possible that Johansson is the backup again next season, Tampa Bay could use some of their rest-of-year cap flexibility to get a more proven second-stringer on an expiring contract to give Vasilevskiy an extra night off here and there.  That might be beneficial from a rest perspective as they’ll need him at his best for the postseason if they can get in.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Lightning Sign Milo Roelens To Entry-Level Contract

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4:12 p.m.: Roelens’ ELC carries a cap hit of $870K, per PuckPedia. In all three seasons, the deal carries a $775K salary, a $95K signing bonus, up to $80K in games played bonuses, and a minors salary of $82.5K.

12:01 p.m.: Free agent center prospect Milo Roelens signed a three-year, entry-level contract with the Lightning on Friday, per a team release. The agreement, for which terms were not released, will begin next season and make Roelens an RFA in 2027.

Roelens, 21, is in his final season of junior hockey and has spent the last four seasons in the QMJHL. The massive 6-foot-6, 207-lb pivot was traded from the Sherbrooke Phoenix to the Acadie-Bathurst Titan last summer, a move that’s allowed him to break out for 25 goals, 37 assists, and 62 points with 90 PIMs in 56 games this year.

Crossing over the point-per-game threshold for the first time in his major junior career, Roelens now has his professional home secured for the next three seasons. The Canadian-Belgian dual national was born in Ste-Pétronille, Québec, and received some outside consideration for selection in last year’s NHL Entry Draft but was ultimately passed over.

A decent two-way pivot, Roelens can also play left wing. Like many young UFAs who will sign deals over the coming days, his NHL prospects are limited given his delayed offensive breakout at the junior level, but he’s done well enough in junior play this year to likely secure a spot with Tampa’s primary affiliate, the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, next season. If he doesn’t crack their roster out of camp, he’ll be demoted to the second-tier ECHL with the Orlando Solar Bears.

Roelens’ +17 rating leads Acadie-Bathurst this season, as do his 25 goals. His 62 points are second on the team behind former Hurricanes prospect Robert Orr, another potential free-agent pickup for teams in the coming days or over the summer.

Roelens is the second unsigned prospect to ink an entry-level deal today, joining former Sharks draft pick Max McCue. McCue inked a three-year contract with the Blue Jackets to open this year’s free-agent signing period for UFA prospects coming out of junior hockey.

Lightning Assign Cole Koepke To AHL

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The Lightning have announced that winger Cole Koepke has been reassigned to the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch. His roster spot could go to Tanner Jeannot, who’s nearing a return to play after missing the last six games with an upper-body injury and is currently stashed on injured reserve.

Koepke, 25, made his NHL debut for the Bolts last season after they selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He made the team out of camp and played 17 games last season, scoring once and posting a -5 rating, but was sent to Syracuse after two months and did not return. He didn’t make the team out of camp this year after a disappointing sophomore season with the Crunch post-demotion, but he turned things around with 13 goals and 24 points in 36 AHL games this year and earned himself his second recall of the year late last week.

He has played nine games for Tampa this year, recording his first two NHL assists while logging 6:42 per game. The Minnesota native has logged nine shots on goal, generating decent offense for his limited ice time, although his 42.6 CF% at even strength leaves much to be desired in terms of limiting chances against. Signed to a one-year, two-way extension in June of last year, he does not have enough NHL experience to require waivers to be assigned to the minors. He will need to pass through waivers beginning next season, however.

Koepke has been a healthy scratch in two straight, so it’s clear he wouldn’t stick on the Tampa roster long-term even if Jeannot weren’t nearing a return. He will be an RFA with arbitration rights this summer if the Lightning choose to issue him a qualifying offer.

Haydn Fleury, Tanner Jeannot Considered Day-To-Day

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  • Talking to the head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Jon Cooper, this morning, Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times reports that defenseman Haydn Fleury is considered day-to-day, while the team will also have to wait for the return of forward Tanner Jeannot. Although Fleury has generally been regarded as a depth option at defense for the Lightning, their injuries this season have led him to nearly 16 minutes of ice time per night over 17 games, a minute higher than his career average.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Lightning Recall Max Crozier, Assign Alex Barre-Boulet To AHL

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The Lightning made a pair of roster moves in advance of their game this afternoon against the Islanders, announcing they’ve recalled defenseman Max Crozier from AHL Syracuse.  To make room on the roster, winger Alex Barre-Boulet was sent to the Crunch.

Crozier has played in seven games for Tampa Bay this season, all coming last month.  The 23-year-old has a pair of assists in those outings along with ten hits and ten blocks while averaging 14:30 per night in his first taste of NHL action.  Crozier also has played in 32 games with Syracuse, collecting a goal and seven assists.  His recall is likely a precautionary one with Erik Cernak’s status being uncertain for this game having missed Thursday’s contest.

As for Barre-Boulet, his demotion shouldn’t come as much of a surprise after he cleared waivers on Friday.  The 26-year-old has six goals and three assists in 36 games with the Lightning so far and has yet to see any action in the minors despite also clearing waivers at the beginning of the season.  Barre-Boulet finished second in AHL scoring last season with 84 points in 69 games and will be a big boost to a Syracuse team that enters play today four points out of first in the North Division.

Lightning Place Alex Barre-Boulet On Waivers

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Feb. 23: Barre-Boulet cleared waivers on Friday, per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. The Lightning may now assign him to AHL Syracuse at their discretion.

Feb. 22: The Tampa Bay Lightning have placed forward Alex Barre-Boulet on waivers, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. This move corresponds with their recalling of Cole Koepke this morning. Barre-Boulet has appeared in 36 games with Tampa this season, scoring six goals and nine points. It’s the first time that the 26-year-old has played in 20 or more NHL games in one season, with much of his career being spent in the minor leagues up to this point.

Barre-Boulet has earned an NHL role after an explosive season in the AHL last year that saw him score 24 goals and 84 points in 69 games. That mark ranked second among all AHL skaters in scoring, just one point behind Arizona Coyote Michael Carcone, who managed 31 goals and 85 points in 65 games. Barre-Boulet’s career-high productivity last year maintained a trend of scoring he’s established in the minors, totaling 283 points across 271 career AHL games.

This includes 68 points, split evenly, in 74 games during the 2018-19 season, Barre-Boulet’s first season as a pro. No AHL rookie has topped his rookie year production, though Buffalo Sabres forward John-Jason Peterka managed to tie the scoring in four fewer games in 2021-22. But unlike Peterka, who has 19 goals and 37 points in 56 NHL games this season, Barre-Boulet has yet to find his scoring groove at the top level. He’s managed just 18 points in his first 68 career games, dating back to his debut in the 2020-21 season.

Barre-Boulet is no stranger to waivers, with this move marking the fifth time he’s been waived in his career. He’s also not a stranger to changing teams as a result, joining the Seattle Kraken as a waiver claim for a brief two games before the Kraken waived him as well and Tampa reclaimed him.

Lightning Recall Cole Koepke

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The Lightning are rewarding one of their better minor-league producers this season, as the team announced Thursday that Cole Koepke is heading up from AHL Syracuse. No corresponding moves are necessary, as the team has an open roster spot and ample space in their LTIR salary pool.

A sixth-round pick in the 2018 draft, Koepke produced near a point-per-game rate at the University of Minnesota-Duluth in his sophomore and junior years. However, he has had an inconsistent development track since turning pro in 2021. He was a surprise name on Tampa Bay’s opening night roster in 2022-23, but he scored just once in 17 games before heading back to the minors for the remainder of the year, where he underwhelmed again with only seven goals and 19 points in 52 games. It’s been a different story this year, as his 13 goals, 11 assists, and 24 points in 36 games have him on pace for AHL career-highs.

He spent three weeks on the Lightning roster earlier this season, recording two assists and averaging 6:48 over an eight-game span. The 25-year-old has been with Syracuse since Tampa Bay demoted him on Dec. 11.

Koepke joins former Syracuse mainstay Alex Barré-Boulet as the Lightning’s projected forward scratches against the Capitals tonight. While on the roster, he’ll battle for bottom-six ice time with the likes of Tyler Motte, Conor Sheary and Austin Watson.

The Minnesota native is on his second NHL contract, signing a one-year, two-way extension ($775K NHL/$100K AHL) weeks before his entry-level contract expired last offseason. He’ll be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights upon expiry this summer.

Lightning Could Be Favorites In The Noah Hanifin Sweepstakes

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The Tampa Bay Lightning could be viewing Noah Hanifin as their replacement for Mikhail Sergachev, per TSN’s Chris Johnston on Insider Trading. Sergachev has had terrible injury luck this season, recently fracturing both bones in his lower left leg just 10 minutes into his return from a separate lower-body injury that held him out for two months. The 25-year-old defenseman has played just 34 games this season, scoring 19 points. He’s now out indefinitely and is currently on the team’s long-term injured reserve.

Hanifin would be a darling replacement for Sergachev and a major addition to a Tampa Bay blue line that’s been battered and bruised all season long. Hanifin has scored 30 points in 56 games this season, operating as Calgary’s clear-cut top defenseman and averaging over 23 minutes of ice time. His role in Tampa would likely be a bit easier and focus more on taking responsibility off of Victor Hedman’s shoulders. Hedman currently averages nearly 25 minutes of ice time each game, almost six minutes more than any other healthy Lightning defenseman.

Nick Paul A Game-Time Decision, Tanner Jeannot Still Out

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  • In a similar fashion to Columbus, Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nick Paul will be a game-time decision tomorrow night against the Florida Panthers. Missing the entire third period in last night’s game against the Colorado Avalanche, Paul did miss the team practice today putting his availability up in the air. In the same report, Encina also suggests that Tanner Jeannot will likely be out another week after being activated from the team’s long-term injured reserve on February 13th.

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Snapshots: Bedard, Vanecek, Jeannot

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The Chicago Blackhawks are reportedly working with local doctors to see if Connor Bedard can make a surprise return to the lineup on Thursday night, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. This return would come well ahead of expectations, with head coach Luke Richardson previously stating his hope was for Bedard to return next week. To say Bedard’s return would be impactful is an understatement. The 18-year-old rookie phenom still leads the team in scoring despite missing their last 14 games. The Blackhawks have been abysmal in his absence, going 3-10-1. This includes a seven-game losing streak (0-6-1) that the Hawks currently find themselves on, with the team netting just eight goals over the stretch.

Adding back their top scorer, the most recent first-overall selection, and the highest-acclaimed prospect since Connor McDavid will bring a breath of fresh air to a desperate Chicago lineup. Bedard has 15 goals and 33 points in 39 games this season, on pace for 70 points in his rookie season. That would be the most a Chicago rookie has scored since Artemi Panarin managed 30 goals and 77 points in 80 games during the 2015-16 season.

Other notes from around the league:

New Jersey Devils goaltender Vitek Vanecek has recovered from an illness that held him out of Tuesday’s game. But head coach Lindy Ruff shares that he is now day-to-day with a lower-body injury, and will continue to be unavailable. Ruff shared that Vanecek will miss the next two games, including New Jersey’s Stadium Series matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers. New Jersey is expected to turn towards Nico Daws in Vanecek’s absence.

Tampa Bay Lightning forward Tanner Jeannot has been designated as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, per team reporter Eduardo A. Encina with the Tampa Bay Times. Jeannot made his return on Tuesday from a lower-body injury that held him out of the team’s last 12 games. Encina adds that head coach Jon Cooper is hoping Jeannot’s new injury won’t be long-term as well. Jeannot has appeared in 42 games when healthy this season, scoring 12 points, split evenly.

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