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Lightning Retire Lecavalier's #4

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St. James asked a follow-up question, wondering if the 2004 Selke Trophy winner would admit he was pulling for competitive, one-goal losses, but he wouldn’t bite. Draper works directly for Ken Holland, and he’s certainly a name to watch should Detroit and Holland part ways. Draper scouts both amateur and pro talent and is involved with team strategy according to the team’s site. But his greatest asset is his connection to the past, as the Red Wings have been very loyal to those who have worn the Winged Wheel. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Detroit go to a trusted name if Holland steps away–whether it’s Draper or assistant general manager Ryan Martin. The vast majority of Detroit fans are clamoring for the return of Yzerman–considered one of the best managers in the league and who was blocked by Holland when offered a chance to be the GM. His return seems unlikely, as Yzerman built the Lightning into a powerhouse. If Yzerman returned, he would have to endure an arduous rebuild in Hockeytown, saddled down by many unmovable contracts.

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning former captain Vincent Lecavalier’s #4 tonight, Lecavalier was the team’s #1 overall choice in the 1998 NHL draft and played fourteen seasons with the Bolts before being bought out after the 2012-13 season. Lecavalier is still the franchise’s all-time goals leader (383) and still holds the record for most points in a single season (108) back in 2007-08. Lecavalier’s number joins Martin St. Louis’ #26 in the Amalie Arena rafters.

Snapshots: Blues, Thornton, Lewis, Lightning

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In a mailbag column, The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford writes (subscription required) that while the Blues have been linked with a number of high-profile teams such as the Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers, it’s unlikely the team will make a big move for a big name forward with years on his contract like a Max Pacioretty or a Mike Hoffman despite recent rumors to the contrary.

Due to the high trade demands being made for these players, Rutherford believes that trading a top prospect for a player who has a large contract to fit into their salary cap space doesn’t make a lot of sense as the team wants to have as much flexibility when free agency arrives this summer. Instead, the scribe believes the team needs to go the rental route and acquire a player (for a much cheaper price) so the team can make their run.

The team already is without their 2018 first-round pick which they traded for Brayden Schenn, so moving a top prospect could set the team back long-term. The team should look into a player such as Rick Nash, Michael Grabner or Patrick Maroon as options as they likely won’t cost them one of their top prospects in Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas or Klim Kostin.

  • The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that alarms should sound after San Jose Sharks center Joe Thornton refused to say that he will definitely be back this season. That’s a surprise considering he is a player who last year played through torn MCL and ACL injuries during the playoffs. Historically, he’s been a player who goes out on the ice no matter how hurt he is, so the idea that he might not be back this season suggests the injury is worse than people think. Could he have already played his last game as a San Jose Shark?
  • Fox Sports West Patrick O’Neal tweets that Los Angeles Kings forward Trevor Lewis was sent back to Los Angeles to be re-evaluated after being injured in Friday’s game against the Florida Panthers. While indications are that the injury isn’t serious, head coach John Stevens wanted to have him evaluated after he sustained a serious crash against the boards.
  • Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith writes that the rumors of a potential Ottawa Senators-Tampa Bay Lightning deadline deal refuses to go away. He writes that there have been a number of rumors, including talk of Erik Karlsson, and points out that Ottawa’s chief scout is expected to be at the Tampa Bay game tonight.

Trade Candidates: Radim Vrbata

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With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.

The last time that the Florida Panthers went out and added a veteran Czech forward, it worked out perfectly. Jaromir Jagr was an All-Star and the Panthers were Atlantic Division champions. GM Dale Tallon may have been hoping that lightning would strike twice when he added Jagr’s countryman, Radim Vrbata, this off-season. It didn’t. In fact, Vrabta’s tenure in Florida has been an unmitigated disaster, as the 36-year-old is on pace to have the worst offensive season of his long, successful NHL career.

Nevertheless, Vrbata has shown time and time again to be a lethal weapon when he finds the right line chemistry and, despite what they say, even on teams other than the Coyotes. Vrbata’s decline in production could be a sign of his age, but some teams may gamble on it instead being a product of his surroundings and will look to acquire the experienced scorer at a bargain price. The Panthers are not as far out of a the playoff picture as some might think – six points back with two games in hand as of this writing – but that won’t stop them from entertaining offers on several players, especially Vrbata. The veteran forward hasn’t worked out in Florida and wouldn’t be much of a loss for the Cats, so a trade could wind up as a win-win for both sides.

Contract

Vrbata signed a one-year deal with Florida this summer that carries a $2.5MM base salary, his cap hit for the year. Vrbata can earn an additional $1.25MM in performance bonuses and, interestingly enough, a trade to a contender could trigger one of them; Vrbata earns $250K if his team makes the playoffs this season. He also earns $250K each for 10 goals, 15 goals, 20 goals, and 45 points. With just 5 goals and 13 points thus far, he realistically has a shot at only $500K in bonuses for 10 goals and a playoff berth. This overage would count against next season’s cap.

2017-18

The myth surrounding Vrbata has always been that he doesn’t perform outside of Arizona. While past campaigns in Colorado, Chicago, and Vancouver have indicated otherwise, this season in Florida has only added fuel to that fire. Vrbata has skated in 35 games for the Panthers this season, missing five games due to injury, five to illness, and another six (and counting) as a healthy scratch. Even when he’s been on the ice, Vrbata has been invisible. He’s outside the top ten in goals, assists, and points among Panthers and his impressive power play production has dried up, reduced to just four points on the year. On top of that, Vrbata has the third-worst plus/minus on the team and, as he has his whole career, plays with little physical or defensive ability. As a result of his poor play, the 16-year NHL veteran is seeing the least ice time of his career. The Vrbata experiment in Sunrise did not work out and will soon be over, either via trade or the end of the season.

Season Stats

35 GP: 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points, -8 rating, 14 PIM, 78 shots, 13:05 ATOI, 44.3 CF%

Potential Suitors

So who would want to trade for such an uninspiring asset? Unfortunately for Vrbata, the Coyotes aren’t an option as they are as far from a deadline seller as any team could be. However, Vrbata has found success elsewhere before in his career and he can do so again. Especially at this point in his career, Vrbata is the perfect deadline depth acquisition: a hired gun who doesn’t need to be relied upon to be a team’s best player. With the right fit, Vrbata can score in bunches down the stretch and in the postseason. Several playoff-bound teams are known to be looking for a scoring winger, including the Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues, and San Jose Sharks. All three teams have the infrastructure where Vrbata could settle in to a middle-six role depending on which personnel he fits best with. Top contenders like the Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning – if the Bolts are willing to bring Vrbata back for a second go-round after his disappointing prior stint – could also use the luxury of bringing in a veteran winger, but could also survive if he doesn’t work out and ends up a frequent scratch.

However, where Vrbata is likely the best fit is not with a bona fide playoff team, but instead a fringe team looking to make a minor addition in hopes of increasing their odds of seeing the postseason. The Calgary Flames, who won’t trade away any high draft picks, might be happy to take a look at Vrbata if the price is a late pick or low-end prospect. The Colorado Avalanche, the team that drafted Vrbata, and New Jersey Devils have both stated that they won’t derail their long-term plans by chasing expensive rentals, but could pursue the affordable Vrbata, while the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes could also be options if they are closer to a playoff berth come deadline day.

Likelihood of a Trade

Predicting whether Vrbata’s 2017-18 performance will outweigh his career production in the eyes of this year’s buyers is impossible. There is a clear need for a veteran winger with a scoring touch on many teams, including some not even mentioned, but whether they target Vrbata over any number of other options (even including Panthers teammate Colton Sceviour) remains to be seen. If anyone does come calling though, it would be a surprise to see Florida turn down the best offer. The Panthers will continue to push for a playoff spot of their own, but Vrbata won’t play a real part in that plan whether he is traded or not. The signing was a failure, but Florida can still turn it into a positive if they are able to get something back in return for trading Vrbata.

Snapshots: Johnson, Nash, Green

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The Columbus Blue Jackets are looking for a landing spot for Jack Johnson, after he requested a trade earlier this season and wants a chance to play a bigger role somewhere before hitting free agency. In tonight’s edition of Insider Trading on TSN with panel members Pierre LeBrun, Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie, they discuss where Johnson could land.

LeBrun even reports that Columbus is “comfortable they can go out and get a low first-round draft pick,” but that they’d still rather get a forward back for a playoff run of their own. That at least seems to increase the likelihood of Johnson being dealt by the deadline, as even a late first is very valuable for clubs on draft day.

  • Rick Nash is clearly on the market, now that the New York Rangers have effectively signaled a rebuild and asked for his no-trade list. Dreger lists the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars as the top two contenders for Nash, but that as many as ten teams have been in contact with his representatives. Nash is likely going to be one of the top prizes on deadline day, if he even lasts the next few weeks.
  • McKenzie chimes in with some news on Mike Green of the Detroit Red Wings, once again linking him to the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning are after a defenseman for their Stanley Cup run, but McKenzie reports that the Red Wings are after a return somewhere between the one they received for Brendan Smith last season (2018 second-round pick, 2017 third-round pick) and the one St. Louis received for Kevin Shattenkirk (effectively 2017 first-round pick, prospect Zach Sanford). Whether Tampa Bay wants to pay that much is unclear, but they do have quite the prospect pipeline already built up if they do start to sacrifice futures.

Snapshots: Devils, Koekkoek, Jerabek

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The New Jersey Devils have been a better story than anyone expected this season, jumping from the first-overall pick in June 2017 to third place in the Metropolitan Division as we sit here today. That unexpected success though often comes with hard decisions come the trade deadline, a situation Devils GM Ray Shero is familiar with.

When speaking with Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Shero was clear that he would not deviate from the long-term plan he had for the Devils before the season. He believes that his team will avoid the rental market at their current costs, but will stay open to “hockey deals” over the next few weeks. Shero of course already added Sami Vatanen in a surprising move earlier this season, trading away long time Devils forward Adam Henrique.

  • Slater Koekkoek was afforded a rare opportunity to log some higher minute totals while Victor Hedman was out for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and GM Steve Yzerman believes he showed well in his limited exposure. Yzerman told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet as much, who, in his latest 31 Thoughts column, suggested that the Ottawa Senators were among teams showing interest in the young defenseman. Koekkoek was selected 10th-overall in 2012 but has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHL player. Scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the summer, perhaps the Lightning will look to give him another opportunity elsewhere.
  • Speaking of opportunity, that’s all Jakub Jerabek wanted when he signed a contract with the Montreal Canadiens last offseason. Jerabek, 26, left the KHL after one excellent season in order to come to North America, and has acquitted himself well in his debut with Montreal and the Laval Rocket of the AHL. Eric Engels of Sportsnet reports that Jerabek very much enjoys playing in Montreal, and though no contract negotiations have taken place just yet, the player would welcome them at some point. Because of his advanced age, Jerabek was forced to sign just a one-year deal with the Canadiens, and will be an unrestricted free agent in July.

Eastern Notes: McDonagh, Nash, Bruins, Stone

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Trade rumors seem to be buzzing around the Tampa Bay Lightning as a team very likely to make a big deal at the trade deadline this year. Already with the best record in the NHL with a 36-13-3 record, the Lightning might be looking to improve both its forward depth as well as its defense for a run at the Stanley Cup this year.

While he is quick to acknowledge that teams cross-scouting each other doesn’t mean a trade is forthcoming, New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that he wouldn’t be surprised if both teams are scouting each other for a potential deadline deal surrounding New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh. The fact that Rangers assistant general manager Chris Drury was spotted at a Syracuse Crunch game (Tampa’s AHL affiliate) on Friday, suggests they might be looking at what they can get from the Lightning in such a move. Tampa Bay’s assistant GM Pat Verbeek has also been spotted at Ranger games recently. McDonagh has often been mentioned in trade rumors as he has one year remaining on his contract after this year, making him a more advantageous acquisition than a pure rental player.

The Lightning might be looking to bolster their defense. The team struggled when they lost Victor Hedman for several weeks to injury. Considering that Tampa Bay likes former Ranger players such as Ryan Callahan and Dan Girardi, perhaps a trade is a possibility. Brooks added that he believes the Rangers would also be willing to retain half of his $4.7MM salary in order to get a quality return.

  • In the same article, Brooks adds he believes the New York Rangers also would be willing to retain half of veteran forward Rick Nash’s contract as well. Nash, who is in the final year of his deal with an AAV of $7.8MM, is believed to have multiple suitors if the price is right, including the Nashville Predators, Columbus Blue Jackets, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and possibly the Pittsburgh Penguins.
  • The Boston Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa writes that the Boston Bruins would also have quite a bit of interest in acquiring McDonagh for their defense. The scribe writes that the veteran’s leadership, character and performance could be quite valuable to a young Bruins’ team. However, would the Bruins be willing to relinquish a first-rounder, a young NHL player and a prospect for him?
  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the Ottawa Senators might be getting back forward Mark Stone from injury soon, after having already missed six games due to a knee injury. Although not expected to play today against Montreal, Garrioch writes that Stone has resumed skating and is a possibility for Tuesday’s game against the New Jersey Devils. “I have to find out if it swelled up again,” Senators head coach Guy Boucher said Saturday. “There’s no structural problem waiting to heal. It’s the swelling. Once the swelling is gone, then he’s ready to play. I know the swelling was down big time. Mechanically he was able to move his leg a lot better, but certainly not enough to play (this weekend), and he hasn’t practised yet. He has to do real practices with the team, and then he’s ready to play. I’d love to get him back, but we’ve lived with this all year.”

Lightning Acquire Eddie Pasquale From Oilers

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The Lightning and Oilers have made a minor trade as Tampa Bay announced (Twitter link) that they have acquired goaltender Eddie Pasquale from Edmonton in exchange for future considerations.

Pasquale was in his first season with Edmonton’s organization after joining them from Detroit’s AHL team in the summer.  He has played in 16 games with their AHL affiliate in Bakersfield this season, posting a 2.60 GAA and a .910 SV%.  He will be assigned to Tampa Bay’s minor league team in Syracuse where he will serve as extra depth with starter Louis Domingue currently up with the Lightning.  The 27-year-old carries a $700K cap hit in the NHL and has a salary of $150K in the minors with a total of $200K in guaranteed money in the deal.

This deal was made as part of a minor league swap that was made between the two teams as Edmonton’s AHL affiliate picked up netminder Nicola Riopel and winger Ty Loney in exchange for future considerations, a deal that was announced by Syracuse.  Both Riopel and Loney are on minor league contracts.

While Pasquale could have been included in that same trade, moving his NHL rights gives the Oilers a little bit of wiggle room on the 50-contract limit.  This move drops them down to 48 which gives them some flexibility heading into the trade deadline or to add someone via the college free agent market in March and April.

Injury Notes: Hedman, Frolik, Jones

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Last season brought incredibly bad luck in regards to injury for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Steven Stamkos played just 17 games before going down for the rest of the season, and they even lost three different centers all in a single game late in the year.

2017-18 has been much different, until a few weeks ago when Victor Hedman was ruled out for three to six weeks with a knee injury. The team obviously suffered without their Norris Trophy candidate, but that won’t last long. Hedman took a full morning skate with the team and is a game-time decision for the Lightning tonight. The injury occurred on January 11th, less than three weeks ago.

  • Michael Frolik has been activated from injured reserve in Calgary, and is expected to play tonight. Frolik hasn’t played in over a month after taking a puck to the face against the San Jose Sharks, and will look to get back on track right away against the Vegas Golden Knights. The 29-year old winger has just 15 points on the season, but is a huge part of the Flames even-strength attack and one of their best penalty killing forwards.
  • The illness that kept Seth Jones from appearing in the All-Star game won’t keep him out of any regular season action, and Bruce Boudreau isn’t happy about it. The head coach of the Minnesota Wild called it “ridiculous” that Jones would be allowed to play without serving the normal one-game suspension for avoiding the All-Star festivities at the last minute, but according to Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription required) the decision was made by the league in order to prevent any outbreak of the flu among the best players in the game. Jones had wanted to play, and now won’t be punished for his absence.

Final Standings Projections At The Mid-Way Point

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It’s impossible to tell exactly how the remainder of the 2017-18 season will shake out, but with the NHL set to resume it’s unofficial second half of the season tomorrow, there’s no better time to look at the current state of the league. The final standings could look much like they do now or they could differ greatly, depending on whether or not the status quo shifts over the next few months. The trade deadline, rookie wall, and the health rigors of an 82-game season can all change the course of the campaign for many teams, but as of now, this is what the final standings and 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs will look like:

Atlantic Division

  1. Tampa Bay Lightning – 119 points
  2. Boston Bruins – 115 points
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs – 98 points
  4. Detroit Red Wings – 79 points
  5. Montreal Canadiens – 77 points
  6. Florida Panthers – 77 points
  7. Ottawa Senators – 68 points
  8. Buffalo Sabres – 62 points

Metropolitan Division

  1. Washington Capitals – 105 points
  2. New Jersey Devils – 96 points
  3. Columbus Blue Jackets – 95 points
  4. Philadelphia Flyers – 94 points
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins – 92 points
  6. New York Islanders – 90 points
  7. New York Rangers – 90 points
  8. Carolina Hurricanes – 87 points

Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1A Tampa Bay vs. #2W Pittsburgh
#1M Washington vs. #1W Philadelphia
#2A Boston vs. #3A Toronto
#2M New Jersey vs. #3M Columbus

Central Division

  1. Nashville Predators – 113 points
  2. Winnipeg Jets – 108 points
  3. St. Louis Blues – 101 points
  4. Dallas Stars – 98 points
  5. Colorado Avalanche – 97 points
  6. Minnesota Wild – 95 points
  7. Chicago Blackhawks – 89 points

Pacific Division

  1. Vegas Golden Knights – 116 points
  2. San Jose Sharks – 101 points
  3. Calgary Flames – 97 points
  4. Los Angeles Kings – 95 points
  5. Anaheim Ducks – 93 points
  6. Edmonton Oilers – 79 points
  7. Vancouver Canucks – 74 points
  8. Arizona Coyotes – 54 points

Western Conference First Round Playoff Match-ups:

#1P Vegas vs. #2W Colorado
#1C Nashville vs. #1W Dallas
#2C Winnipeg vs. #3C St. Louis
#2P San Jose vs. #3P Calgary

The biggest takeaway from this current outlook? It won’t take 100 points to be a playoff team this year, but the vast number of mediocre teams opens the door for some last-minute playoff drama. The Islanders, Rangers, Wild, and Kings all project to be just one win outside of a playoff berth. These races could come down to the wire. It should be a fun second half.

Which Teams Would Have Flexibility In Another Expansion Draft?

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Midway-through the 2017-18 NHL season, it is nearly impossible to predict what rosters could look like following the 2019-20 season, more than two years away. Trades, free agency, and much more shape teams often in ways that no one sees coming. With that said, it seems like another Expansion Draft is coming to add the league’s 32nd team, the Seattle __________, and the timeline most are suggesting is a June 2020 draft date. Like it or not, the general managers of the other 31 NHL need to be keeping that in the back of their mind with each move they make over the next two seasons.

However, it could be that some have already made decisions that could impact their roster protection plans more than two years from now. The structure of the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft will the remain the same, allowing for teams to protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie or eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie from being selected. The one caveat that threw more than a few teams for a loop last June was that all players with No-Movement Clauses (NMC) in their contracts had to be protected, unless the players voluntarily chose to wave them i.e. Marc-Andre Fleury. So, with that one aspect of the expansion process in mind, it is possible to look ahead at certain long-term contracts to see, assuming those players don’t waive them ahead of time, who could be locked in for protection in 2020 or which teams will have more flexibility without any such players:

Total Flexibility

Arizona Coyotes (0) – The only NMC players on the Coyotes are defensemen Alex Goligoski and Niklas Hjalmarsson. Hjalmarsson will be a free agent in the summer of the projected Expansion Draft and Goligoski’s clause will have shifted to a Modified No-Trade Clause. Arizona will likely have complete flexibility.

Buffalo Sabres (0) – Kyle Okposo’s NMC expires after this season and Jason Pominville’s contract expires after next season. Buffalo won’t have any restrictions on their protection scheme as of now.

Calgary Flames (0) – There is no one on the roster with a NMC and no one that will predictably get one by the end of the 2019-20 season. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.

Los Angeles Kings (0) – Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar in their only NMC player right now and even his clause will have shifted to No-Trade by 2020. L.A. is free and clear.

Nashville Predators (0) – GM David Poile does not seem to be a fan of NMC’s in his recent long-term deals and in the new NHL expansion era, that’s a good thing.

New Jersey Devils (0) – see Calgary Flames

New York Islanders (0) – The Andrew Ladd and Johnny Boychuk contracts already look bad for the Isles. They would be much worse if their NMC’s didn’t expire soon. With John Tavares and Josh Bailey both candidates for NMC’s should they re-sign in New York and a defense that needs a re-haul, the Islanders could lose some flexibility, but they should be fine.

Toronto Maple Leafs (0) – The Leafs have no NMC players under contract beyond 2019-20 right now. That could easily change with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in need of extensions, but Toronto should still be in a good spot. After all, those are players that would protected regardless.

Vancouver Canucks (0) – Loui Eriksson’s NMC shifts to a No-Trade Clause following this season and will be an afterthought by 2020. It’s fortunate, as Eriksson’s tenure in Vancouver has not gone according to plan.

Vegas Golden Knights (0) – The Golden Knights didn’t sign or trade for any players with NMC’s and only drafted two – Marc-Andre Fleury and David Clarkson – who already had them and they both expire before the Knights would be set to become the NHL’s second-newest team. With that said, the current Knights’ roster will see a lot of turnover in the next two years and they may struggle to avoid NMC’s completely.

Washington Capitals (0) – GM Brian MacLellan has avoided NMC’s in any of his recent mega-deals. If he can do it again this summer in his attempt to re-sign (or replace) John Carlson, then the Caps will be in good shape for another round of expansion drafting.

Winnipeg Jets (0) – The NMC in Bryan Little’s contract will both kick in and expire between now and June 2020. The Jets should be left with a fully flexible lineup.

Some Flexibility

Boston Bruins (2) – There’s little concern that Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron will still be playing at a high level in two years. Their NMC’s should be a non-factor for Boston. If David Krejci and, especially, David Backes still had their NMC’s too at that time, there would be a real logjam up front. However, both will have shifted to Modified No-Trade Clauses by then, potentially saving the Bruins from making tough decisions about their many talented young forwards.

Carolina Hurricanes (1) – As important a job as he’s had in Carolina, Jordan Staal will never be the star forward that finally puts them over the top. If his NMC causes a problem in 2020, he could easily be traded to a contender to play a complementary role. The Hurricanes need to retain as many promising young forward assets as they can in hopes of one day finding that true superstar.

Colorado Avalanche (1) – There are mixed opinions on Erik Johnson, but he has a leadership role for the Avalanche and will be key in grooming a strong crop of up-and-coming defensive prospects. The Avs won’t lose sleep about having to protect him in expansion, especially if he’s still one of their top-pairing guys in two years.

Columbus Blue Jackets (1) – The Blue Jackets were one of the biggest losers in the most recent Expansion Draft. They might be smart to sell off Nick Foligno if there’s any risk that history repeats itself.

Dallas Stars (3) – Call it optimism about his play in his first season in Dallas, but the NMC for Alexander Radulov doesn’t seem like it will be a major issue even after a couple more years. Of course, Jamie Benn’s NMC will also be a non-factor. Ben Bishop on the other hand may not be the goalie the Stars would prefer to keep in two years. As of now, there’s no immediate competition though.

Detroit Red Wings (1) – Detroit only has one NMC player who will still be under contract in 2020-21 (and another season after that), but it’s Frans Nielsen, who has been a major disappointment for the team since coming over from the New York Islanders. He could throw a wrench in their plans if he continues his downward trend over the next two seasons.

Minnesota Wild (2) – The Ryan Suter and Zach Parise mega-deals will still be making an impact in 2020, but with most of the core locked up throughout that season and no other NMC contract likely on their way, Minnesota should be okay in the Expansion Draft.

Montreal Canadiens (2) – Even if the Canadiens continue to struggle through two more seasons, there will be few Habs fans that blame superstar goalie Carey Price. His NMC won’t be an issue because the team would never dream of leaving him exposed. Jeff Petry on the other hand could be a problem. Luckily (?), it doesn’t look like Montreal will have many defenders worth protecting even in the next couple of seasons.

Ottawa Senators (2) – Some things never change. The NMC’s for Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf were problems for the Senators in this past Expansion Draft and they’ll likely be problems again next time around. If Phaneuf is traded between now and then, that alleviates some concern for Ottawa. Good luck moving the Ryan contract though.

Philadelphia Flyers (1) – Only Claude Giroux has and predictably will have an NMC come June 2020. That’s a pretty safe situation for Philly.

San Jose Sharks (1) – Marc-Edouard Vlasic plays a confident, stay-at-home defensive game that often ages nicely. He looks to be the only NMC in San Jose in 2020, which shouldn’t cause a stir.

St. Louis Blues (1) – Patrik Berglund will be on the wrong side of 30 and still under a NMC when the potential 2020 draft rolls around, but with the rest of their core signed long-term without NMC’s, the Blues should be pretty safe.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) – Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman may be the two safest NMC contracts in the NHL. Fortunately, Ryan Callahan’s otherwise-problematic NMC expires just prior to projected 2020 Expansion Draft.

Little Flexibility

Anaheim Ducks (3) – Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Kesler will all be 35+ and still be NMC-protected in 2020. That’s a large chunk of your protected forwards to dedicate to players in the twilight of their careers. Some up-and-coming young talent could leave Anaheim again in this next Expansion Draft a la Shea Theodore.

Chicago Blackhawks (4) – The downside to signing all of your core players to long contracts with NMC’s could hit the Blackhawks hard in the next Expansion Draft. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews will be well past 30 and Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith will be in their mid-to-late 30’s during the 2020-21 season, but all four will need to be protected ahead of that season, which could force other promising younger players out of Chicago’s protection scheme. At least they’ll narrowly avoid having an issue in net with Corey Crawford’s contract expiring prior.

Edmonton Oilers (2) – Milan Lucic and Kris Russell. Each two years older than they are now. Those aren’t exactly players that a team wants to be forced to keep. It’s foreseeable that one or both could have a negative impact on the team’s protection plan.

Florida Panthers (3) – The Panthers probably won’t mind having three players locked up come Expansion 2.0. The team knew what they were doing when they signed Keith Yandle long-term. Even in his mid-30’s, Yandle will be a reliable player and a leader for the young Florida defensive core. Sure, they considered asking him to waive his NMC this past June, but they never actually did. Yandle won’t be a major issue in two years unless his play falls off considerably. There should be no concern whatsoever over Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, whose NMC’s kick in later on in their contracts. The same might not be true about Evgeni Dadonov, whose been somewhat underwhelming so far in Florida, but luckily his contract runs out just prior the probable draft date.

New York Rangers (4) – Although they will have near total control over their forwards, outside of Mika Zibanejad, the Rangers could be in a tough position with their protection schemes in net and on the blue line in 2020. Then-38-year-old Henrik Lundqvist will require protection, as will underachieving defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Marc Staal. New York is apparently readying themselves for somewhat of a rebuild, which could mean some of those players are traded beforehand. Otherwise New York could face quite the dilemma.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) – It seems unlikely, even years from now and in their mid-30’s, that the NMC’s for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, or Phil Kessel would cause trouble for the Penguins. Injury-prone defenseman Kris Letang could be different though. Being forced to protect him after another two seasons of hard minutes could be difficult to swallow. Pittsburgh also has some work to do filling out the forward corps between now and 2020. GM Jim Rutherford would be well-served to avoid acquiring or handing out any further NMC’s.

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