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NHL Comparables For Top Draft Propects

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While free agency and trades tend to grab most of the offseason headlines, the annual entry draft is generally far more important to NHL teams. Controllable young talent is the life blood of any successful organization and the best way to secure that talent is through the draft. While this year’s draft crop perhaps lacks the “generational” type of player that we’ve seen in each of the two previous years (Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews), there is no shortage of young players who will be selected this June who will go on to have successful NHL careers.

A common approach when discussing 17 and 18-year-old draft prospects is to compare their potential upsides to those of present day or past NHL stars. Sidney Crosby was often compared to a young Wayne Gretzky, not solely due to possessing similar, elite offensive abilities, but also because he exuded the traits of a player that could be one of the game’s great ambassadors. McDavid, in turn was compared to a young Crosby for many of those same reasons.

In an interesting piece appearing on NHL.com, Mike Morreale takes a stab at comparing a handful of the top 2017 draft prospects to some of the day’s top NHL stars using analysis from NHL Central Scouting. Among them is potential #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick, who the scribe compares to Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, citing the former’s hockey sense and vision as the youngster’s best assets. Like the 6-foot-3, 224-pound Kopitar, Patrick has great size (6-foot-3, 198-pounds) and according to Central Scouting, his “playmaking ability with the size and reach is tremendous.”

If Patrick is not chosen first overall then that honor may well go to Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. Morreale cites Washington pivot Nicklas Backstrom as Hischier’s possible NHL comparable, identifying the latter’s hockey sense and skating ability as his top attributes. Central Scouting says “he plays a complete game but is very good offensively.”

Other prospects to make an appearance are Gabriel Vilardi and Owen Tippett, from Windsor and Mississauga of the OHL respectively, as well as USHL stars Casey Mittelstadt and Kevin Petruzzelli.

While it’s natural to project young players into some of the stars of today’s game, it’s important to note that these comparisons essentially represent the bast case scenarios for each of the prospect’s in their long term development. The words prospect and suspect are sometimes used interchangeably, reminding us that no matter how talented the prospect may be, any number of factors can prevent him from reaching his full potential. Every team hopes their top draft pick turns into a Crosby, Backstrom or Kopitar but the possibility remains that instead they end up with the next Patrik Stefan, Rostislav Klesla or Pavel Vorobiev. That same fate could befall any, or all of 2017’s top draft prospects.

Morning Notes: Patrick, Johnson, Parise

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Thought the Brandon Wheat Kings came into their WHL playoff series as underdogs, it looked like the series could be a long one because of Nolan Patrick and his recent dominance. Instead Patrick would never appear in the series, held out with a lower-body injury for all four of the Medicine Hat Tigers victories. A 3-2 win last night showed how lopsided the series was without Patrick, as the Tigers out shot Brandon 54-25.

It has been a very disappointing year for Patrick, who missed a large chunk of the season, the World Juniors and now the playoffs. Mike Morreale of NHL.com still thinks he’ll go first overall, and reminds us of some of the other injuries to top players in their draft year or immediately following. Patrick’s only real competition for the #1 spot is Nico Hischier of the Halifax Mooseheads, who was excellent in tying up his QMJHL series at 2-2. Hischier had four hits, was 10/16 on faceoffs and scored the game winner on the powerplay.

  • Tyler Johnson was back out on the ice before Tampa Bay Lightning practice today and though he’s still not sure when he’ll get back into the lineup, he told Bryan Burns of NHL.com he hopes to soon. “I better [return] or I’m going to be pretty upset,” he told Burns after the skate. Johnson has been out since the March 9th game that saw three Tampa Bat centers hurt, and would be a huge boost to a club still right in the thick of the playoff race. With Steven Stamkos upgraded to day-to-day (and taking line rushes on the top unit today), Tampa Bay might be getting healthy just in time to make some noise in the final few weeks of the season.
  • Michael Russo of the Star Tribune reports that Zach Parise was out skating at the optional practice for the Minnesota Wild today. Parise took a stick in the eye on Tuesday night and had to leave the game, a scary moment for Wild fans and players alike. The alternate captain was in all kinds of agony on the ice after smashing his head on the way down. Russo reports that though he’s likely to miss tonight’s game against the Ottawa Senators, he may return sooner than many expected. The Wild need to get back on track after going 1-7-2 in their last ten and falling within striking distance of the St. Louis Blues. While they’re definitely going to make the playoffs, if they continue playing as they are right now it would be an early exit.

Blues Sign Evan Fitzpatrick To Entry-Level Deal

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Sunday is no day of rest for the St. Louis Blues and GM Doug Armstrong, as the team announced this morning that they have come to terms on entry level contract with young goaltender Evan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was a second-round selection of the team in 2016 from the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix. The terms of the deal have not yet been announced.

Though he still has quite a bit of development left to go at age 19, the Blues have to be a bit discouraged with Fitzpatrick’s lack of improvement in 2016-17. The 6’3″ Halifax native was the fourth goalie off the board last year, as the Blues swooped in and used the 59th overall pick on him. Many believed that they had gotten good value for Fitzpatrick, who was coming off a slightly disappointing season as the starter for the Phoenix that had caused him to fall in the pre-draft rankings. Fitzpatrick posted a 3.42 GAA and .896 SV% in 54 games for Sherbrooke in 2015-16, but his play significantly increased in the QMJHL playoffs, and perhaps Armstrong and company saw that trend continuing upward this season. Instead, Fitzpatrick had a 3.46 GAA and .899 Sv%, almost identical to last season, but won fewer games as Sherbrooke finished at the bottom of the West Division.

Fitzpatrick’s signing does not imply that he will be with the Blues or their AHL affiliate, the Chicago Wolves, any time soon, but it is a step toward working closer with the young goalkeeper in hopes of turning his game around. Fitzpatrick is a physically talented goalie who seems to be struggling to develop the much-needed finesse aspects of the position, but some extra work this summer could have him back on track in 2017-18. St. Louis needs to see some improvement out of Fitzpatrick, who is still regarded as the organization’s top goalie prospect. Though young starter Jake Allen is just 26, he has had ups and downs in his first season with full control over the net, and the Blues need to have a young heir in mind just in case. At the AHL level, Jordan Binnington and Ville Husso have both played relatively well, but lack that promise that a high pick offers. If St. Louis doesn’t think either of the pair are the future, it falls on Fitzpatrick to be that next man up in the organization.

Minor Moves: McKenzie, Green, Beauvillier, Hronek

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As many non-professional seasons come to an end across North America and the world, players are starting to sign with their respective organizations to get a taste of the AHL and what lies beyond for them in their hockey careers. Here are some of the latest signings around the league:

  • The Utica Comets have signed Brett McKenzie to an amateur tryout after his season ended in the OHL. The North Bay Battalion forward was a point-per-game player for the first time in his junior career and led his team in goals with 29. Selected in the seventh round last season in his final year of draft eligibility, McKenzie will try to adapt his all-around game to the AHL level.
  • Ken Wiebe of the Winnipeg Sun reports that the Manitoba Moose have signed Luke Green an ATO. The third-round pick of the Jets this past draft had an outstanding year in the QMJHL, scoring 37 points in 60 games split between the Saint John Sea Dogs and Sherbrooke Phoenix. The 19-year old defenseman will have to return to the junior ranks next year if he doesn’t make the Jets out of camp—which would be quite a feat considering the names he would have to beat out on the right side.
  • Wiebe also tells us that the Moose have given Francis Beauvillier an ATO, one of the first out of the CIS (Canadian University) ranks this season. Beauvillier was originally drafted by the Florida Panthers in 2012, but failed to sign with the team before heading to the University of New Brunswick. He even played eight games for the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL in 2013 on a similar deal.
  • The Detroit Red Wings have assigned both Givani Smith and Filip Hronek to Grand Rapids after their OHL seasons ended. Both players are already signed to their entry-level contracts, but will not burn a year due to their age as long as they stay in the AHL. Smith leaves the Guelph Storm after another season of moderate point totals and big penalty minutes. A second-round pick in 2016, the winger scored 44 points while collecting 139 penalty minutes in 64 games. Hronek on the other hand—also a second-round pick last summer—excelled in his first taste of North American hockey, scoring 61 points in 59 games. The Czech defenseman was the fourth-highest scoring defender in the OHL, showing his immense upside for the Saginaw Spirit.
  • As expected, Adam Ollas-Mattsson has joined the Stockton Heat on an ATO, coming over from his Swedish team. The 20-year old was a sixth-round pick for the Flames in 2014, and has been playing professional hockey since he was 17.

Snapshots: Lafreniere, Kerfoot, Sherwood

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In the latest edition of Insider Trading from TSN, Bob McKenzie was asked about the possibility of any exceptional status players applying for the CHL next year. Though there aren’t any 14-year-olds applying this year, McKenzie pointed out one player, Alex Lafreniere, that is a lock for first overall at the QMJHL draft and is one to keep an eye on throughout his junior career.

Lafreniere was born in late 2001, meaning he won’t be eligible for the NHL entry draft until 2020. While that is still a long way away, the 83 points in 36 games for the Saint-Eustache midget team was an incredible feat. His talent is obvious, now we’ll see how he takes playing against kids five years older than him.

  • The panel also included Darren Dreger, who relates that Alexander Kerfoot may wait out the New Jersey Devils and head to free agency. Though the Devils want to sign him when his season ends at Harvard, he’s just a few months away from becoming free to sign with whoever he wants; he’d become a UFA on August 15th. The former fifth-round pick has 40 points in 31 games this year.
  • Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch gives us a note on Kiefer Sherwood from Miami University (Ohio). The undrafted center will in all likelihood head back to college for his junior year despite interest from a handful of teams. Sherwood had 38 points in 34 games this season and just saw teammate Anthony Louis graduate to a deal with Chicago.

Montreal Canadiens Agree To Terms With Simon Bourque

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The Montreal Canadiens have locked up a prospect of their own, giving Simon Bourque a three-year, entry-level contract. The contract will come into effect in 2017-18, and Bourque will likely stay with his CHL team for the remainder of the season.

A sixth-round selection in 2015, Bourque actually played three games for the Canadiens’ AHL team at the end of last season on an amateur tryout. The 20-year old defenseman is capable of putting up big minutes in the QMJHL, where he was traded midway through this season from Rimouski to Saint John. With 51 points in 57 games split between the two squads, Bourque is a big part of the blueline for the first place Sea Dogs and will be headed to the playoffs for a shot at the Memorial Cup tournament.

Bourque has turned himself from an offense-first defenseman to an all-around talent this year, capable of shutting down the opposition’s top line. Still an excellent contributor on the powerplay, his ability to feed passes through sticks and find open teammates is one of his strongest assets. Along with Thomas Chabot and Jakub Zboril, Bourque is part of a defense corps that can rival any in the CHL. His jump to professional hockey next season should be an interesting on to follow.

Snapshots: MacEwen, Tynan, Vermette

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The Vancouver Canucks have dipped their toes into the 20-year old free agent waters, signing undrafted center Zack MacEwen to a three-year entry-level contract. MacEwen is playing for the Gatineau Olympiques of the QMJHL where he often skates with Blue Jackets’ third-round pick Vitaly Abramov, one of the league’s top scorers.

Elliotte Friedman reports that both Ottawa and Tampa Bay had been in on MacEwen recently, before the Canucks eventually signed him. MacEwen is a point-per-game player for the first time in his junior career, scoring 62 in 59 games this season. He’ll join Matthew Highmore and many others as teams around the league start snapping up any talent that has slipped through the cracks.

Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5

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While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.

There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.

5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)

The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.

With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.

It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.

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Chicago Blackhawks Sign Matthew Highmore To ELC

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The Chicago Blackhawks aren’t going to wait for the Vegas Golden Knights to snap up all the undrafted talent. Today they inked Matthew Highmore to a three-year, entry-level contract. The undrafted forward is playing for the Saint John Sea Dogs of the QMJHL.

Highmore is a 21-year old left winger who wasn’t selected in the 2014 draft despite a promising sophomore campaign in the CHL. It looked like front offices were right though when he struggled in 2014-15, scoring just 24 points in 62 games. He’s slowly brought himself back into the spotlight in the scoring-heavy QMJHL though, with a solid season last year and 82 points in 58 games this year. While overagers are expected to put up high point totals, Highmore has stood out alongside other top prospects on Saint John.

It’s worth mentioning Vegas after they were given official standing in the NHL yesterday as they are now allowed to negotiate with unsigned players outside of the NHL. Highmore and other undrafted players in the CHL, NCAA and other leagues will likely make up the majority of the Golden Knights’ minor league system for the first few years as they try to build it up through the draft. Remember, they only get to choose 30 players in the expansion draft, and most won’t be players that should be in the minors.

We’ll likely see several deals like this over the next few weeks, as teams bring in any talent they deem valuable. It’s worth noting that Highmore was playing with Blackhawks’ fourth-round selection from this year Nathan Noel, who has 43 points in 45 games.

Lightning, Coyotes Swap Minor Leaguers

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Though not quite as exciting as the two deals yesterday, another trade has gone down in the NHL today. As the Tampa Bay Times reports, the Lightning and Arizona Coyotes have agreed on a swap of forward prospects. Heading to Tampa is Stefan Fournier, while Jeremy Morin heads to Arizona. Neither minor leaguer is much of a threat to become an impact NHL contributor any time soon, but may be able to help their respective AHL franchises.

It’s not the first time that Morin has been on the move; far from it in fact. The 25-year-old winger was a second-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers back in 2009, but was traded not long after in the summer of 2010. Following an 83-point season with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers, Morin was one of the main pieces that went to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Dustin Byfuglien. Morin then broke into the NHL in 2010-11 at the age of 19. However, he was used sparingly in five seasons in Chicago, recording 16 points in just 54 games. Believing that Morin had stopped developing, the Blackhawks flipped him to the Columbus Blue Jackets midway through the 2014-15 season for another struggling prospect, Tim Erixon. After just a half-season in Columbus, Morin was on the move again, heading back to Chicago alongside Artem Anisimov in the Brandon Saad trade. Chicago wasted no time in trading Morin yet again, this time in a deal that worked out much better than Erixon, a swap with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Richard Panik. Only two months later, Morin was part of a deadline deal that shipped him out of Toronto to the San Jose Sharks along with James Reimer. Finally in charge of his own fate, Morin signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Lightning when free agency opened on July 1st of this summer. In 43 games this season with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, Morin has 21 points, his best minor league season since 2013-14. However, that clearly hasn’t helped him find a permanent home, as he’s on the move yet again. Morin will report to the AHL’s Tuscon Roadrunners and will likely finish the season with the team before searching for a new opportunity once again this off-season.

Fournier has not had to endure quite the same treatment. The 24-year-old signed with the Montreal Canadiens in 2013 after a strong junior career in the QMJHL and played three seasons with the organization, in the AHL and ECHL, before being traded to the Coyotes alongside Jarred Tinordi in a three-team deal last season. Fournier has done little to help the Coyotes, or Roadrunners for that matter, in 2016-17 with just four points in 29 AHL games. With the move to Tampa Bay, more accurately the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, perhaps Fournier can find the scoring touch he had in juniors that he has been unable to find in the pros. Fournier will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, so the remainder of the season should act as a tryout for an extension with the Lightning.

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