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Trent Frederic

Oilers Acquire Trent Frederic

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The Oilers are acquiring forward Trent Frederic from the Bruins in a trade that will also involve the Devils as a third team, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Winger Max Jones is also headed from Boston to Edmonton in the deal, Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reports. The Devils announced they’ve acquired the rights to left-wing prospect Shane Lachance from the Oilers and will retain half of Frederic’s salary in the trade after the Bruins’ initial 50% retention, bringing his cap hit for Edmonton down to $575K from $2.3MM. New Jersey also dealt the signing rights to right-winger Petr Hauser to the Oilers to complete their involvement. Edmonton announced the full trade, which reads as follows:

Oilers receive: Frederic, Jones, signing rights to Hauser
Devils receive: Signing rights to Lachance
Bruins receive: D Maximus Wanner, the Blues’ 2025 second-round pick, and the Oilers’ 2026 fourth-round pick.

Frederic is currently week-to-week with a lower-body injury, and Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic reports there’s a possibility he won’t be cleared to play until the playoffs. In that case, the Oilers could place Frederic at his reduced cap hit on long-term injured reserve to open up additional spending flexibility for further moves ahead of Friday’s deadline.

Boston selected Frederic 29th overall in the 2016 draft, ahead of higher-ceiling forwards Alex DeBrincat and Jordan Kyrou who both went in the second round. After a brief but successful two-year collegiate stint at Wisconsin, the versatile depth piece took a couple of years to simmer in the minors, only emerging as a roster regular for the Bruins in the 2020-21 campaign.

Frederic spent a pair of seasons as a fourth-line fixture without much offensive pop, but the physical 6’3″ forward popped big time in Boston’s historic 65-win season in 2022-23. Skating primarily on the wing, he recorded 17-14–31 in 79 games despite averaging under 12 minutes per night, also finishing second among Bruins forwards with 105 hits.

In addition to spending more time down the middle, Frederic amped up his production last season. The Missouri native recorded a career-high 18-22–40 scoring line in 82 games, adding 204 hits while seeing a slight bump in his special teams deployment. But despite skating a career-high 13:55 per game in 2024-25, he hasn’t been able to keep up his scoring. Snakebit like the majority of his Boston teammates, Frederic has just 8-7–15 in 57 games with a career-worst -14 rating. His shooting percentage has regressed to 10.5% after hovering north of the 14% mark the prior two years.

While the drop in point totals is concerning, he’s established his floor as a high-end fourth-line piece with middle-six upside and will likely see an uptick in production depending on how he’s deployed amid a far more talented offensive group in Edmonton. His struggles this season, his expiring contract, and Boston’s slide down the standings made it almost a guarantee he’d be moved at the deadline. The 27-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time this summer after finishing out the year with the Oilers.

Frederic has posted similar offensive numbers to the Oilers’ current pair of third-line wingers in Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark, so it’s unclear if he’ll unseat either for a top-nine role. While faceoffs aren’t his strong suit (a career average of 44.4%), his experience playing down the middle also addresses an immediate need for an Edmonton squad without a legitimate fourth-line center. He could slot in there once he’s ready to return, relieving natural wingers like Kasperi Kapanen who have had to step into the role lately.

They also pick up Jones, who amounts to a failed offseason pickup for Boston. He managed only seven appearances for the Bs after signing a two-year, $2MM deal last offseason, going without a point and averaging 10:01 per game. Selected a few spots ahead of Frederic by the Ducks in the 2016 draft, Jones will remain on his minor-league assignment after clearing waivers in November but now reports to the Oilers’ affiliate in Bakersfield. His $1MM cap hit is completely buriable in the minors and thus carries no cap impact for Edmonton. Before the move, he posted 13-8–21 with a plus-one rating in 38 games for the P-Bruins.

Rounding out Edmonton’s haul in the deal is Hauser, who New Jersey selected in the fifth round in 2022. The 21-year-old is amid a tumultuous campaign in his native Czechia, playing for three different squads across the top-level and second-tier professional leagues. He has 1-10–11 in 63 Czech Extraliga games dating back to his top-level debut in the 2022-23 season. While he has great size at 6’4″ and 207 lbs, he wasn’t considered a meaningful prospect in the Devils organization by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic in his January ranking. He’s a low-ceiling, low-floor option whose signing rights will expire in June 2026.

The Oilers give up a decently intriguing prospect in Lachance for the Devils’ additional salary retention. The son of ex-NHLer and Devils head scout Scott Lachance was the No. 6 prospect in an already-thin Edmonton system, per Wheeler. The 6’5″ winger has suited up for Boston University the past two seasons after Edmonton selected him in the sixth round in 2021, posting 23-29–52 in 72 games while also serving as captain this season. New Jersey will hold his signing rights until the Aug. 15 following his final collegiate season.

In what’s been a strong rental market, Boston landing what’s slated to be a mid-tier second-round pick is some decent work by general manager Don Sweeney. Edmonton previously acquired the second-rounder from St. Louis as compensation for signing defenseman Philip Broberg to an offer sheet last August. The Bruins didn’t have a second-rounder in this year’s draft before the trade – they traded theirs to the Capitals in the 2023 Dmitry Orlov three-team deal.

Wanner was also one of the Oilers’ more notable prospects, checking in at No. 10 in Wheeler’s rankings. The 6’3″ righty isn’t a legitimate needle-mover for a Bruins pool that lacks high-end talent, though. Now 21, he was a seventh-round pick in the 2021 draft and projects as a likely No. 7/8 option on an NHL depth chart at his peak. He’s been limited to just two points in 22 games with Bakersfield this year after posting 7-10–17 in 68 games with a +13 rating in his first pro season last year. He’ll now report to Providence.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Bruins’ Trent Frederic Out Week-To-Week With Lower-Body Injury

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Bruins forward Trent Frederic is out week-to-week after sustaining a lower-body injury against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, Chris Johnston of TSN and The Athletic reports. While it may keep him out through the March 7 trade deadline, the absence “won’t change any plans” regarding a deal for the pending UFA, per Johnston.

Frederic left the 5-4 overtime loss early in the second period. He fell awkwardly after attempting a check on Toronto defenseman Jake McCabe in the corner as a power play expired and, while he skated off under his own power, went to the dressing room shortly thereafter and did not return.

The 27-year-old is still on many trade boards despite a disappointing campaign. He’s been a productive middle-six piece for Boston over the past few years, recording 35-36–71 in 161 games in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 regular seasons. His point totals have been slashed in 2024-25, though. He’s clocked just 8-7–15 through 57 appearances and has posted a career-worst -14 rating, even while playing a career-high 13:50 per game.

The 2016 first-rounder remains an attractive pickup thanks to his 6’3″, 221-lb frame and his ability to play all three forward positions – a significant factor in an otherwise thin rental center market behind Brock Nelson. He’s not particularly good on draws, though. His 43.9% faceoff win rate this year is only a few percentage points south of his 44.4% career average. The bang-and-crash forward ranks fifth on Boston with 44 PIMs and is second on the club with 155 hits.

David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period lists the Canucks, Capitals, and Wild as teams reportedly linked to Frederic, but nearly any team in search of a third-line pickup will likely call Boston about him. His $2.3MM cap hit shouldn’t require much, if any, salary retention to move.

For now, top winger prospect Fabian Lysell remains in the minors for Boston following Frederic’s injury. AHL mainstay Riley Tufte skated in a top-nine role at today’s morning skate instead, per Scott McLaughlin of WEEI. That’s a tough ask of the 26-year-old, who has three points in 22 career NHL appearances.

Bruins, Trent Frederic Haven’t Progressed On Extension Talks

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The Boston Bruins seem headed for a separation with centerman Trent Frederic at this year’s Trade Deadline. The two sides haven’t made progress on a potential extension per Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli, who adds that Frederic’s enforcer style and scoring upside could be an interesting mix for deadline buyers. Seravalli names teams like the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers as potential buyers, as both look to add bulk to protect their stars.

Frederic has found a strong role as an enforcer in Boston’s bottom-six. He has 21 fights over the last three seasons, including four this year. But he’s also shown flashes of interesting scoring upside, netting 17 goals and 31 points in the 2022-23 season after scoring 23 points in the first 119 games of his career. Frederic backed up the breakout season with 18 goals and 40 points last year, seemingly giving him the momentum for a big year this season. He’s instead looked more like he did early in his career – boasting 44 penalty minutes and 152 hits in 56 games this season, backed by just 15 points.

That downtick seems largely thanks to Frederic’s shooting percentage deflating to just 10.5 percent this year, after sitting north of 14 percent over the last two seasons. But his physical presence has kept him on Boston’s third line despite low scoring. Young enforcers aren’t often the feature of deadline conversation, and the chance to buy Frederic before he enters unrestricted free agency this summer could be enticing for a team in need of grit.

Frederic’s market value in a trade or on an extension will be hard to gauge. His dock in scoring likely limits his asking price. He’s also largely expendable after Boston signed the team’s fights leader, Mark Kastelic, to a three-year extension earlier this year. But Frederic is just 26 years old – and offers a proven physical track record, willingness to fight, and potential for resurged shooting percentage. For playoff hopefuls, those traits could be desirable enough to inspire a bidding war – especially amid a quiet deadline season.

Bruins Receiving Interest In Brandon Carlo, Morgan Geekie

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The Bruins are receiving inquiries about the availability of defenseman Brandon Carlo and pending restricted free agent forward Morgan Geekie, ESPN’s Emily Kaplan said last weekend (via Scott McLaughlin of WEEI). Kaplan also relayed they continue to field calls on pending UFA Trent Frederic, who’s been garnering interest throughout much of the season. It’s far less likely that Boston will part ways with captain Brad Marchand even if they haven’t worked out an extension by the March 7 trade deadline, Kaplan added.

There’s little surprise that Boston is seeking to part ways with some of their middle-of-the-lineup players amid what’s likely to be a retooling effort over the next few seasons. They just locked in starter Jeremy Swayman to an eight-year, $66MM deal at the beginning of the season and still have six years remaining on superstar David Pastrňák’s contract, as well as five years remaining on top defenseman Charlie McAvoy’s deal. The team’s books aren’t conducive to a complete rebuild despite them tracking to miss the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

After losing Jake DeBrusk in free agency last summer and signing Elias Lindholm to a max-term deal to augment their center depth, things haven’t gone to plan for the Bruins offensively. They’re clicking at 2.75 goals per game, 25th in the league and their worst since their 2.55 mark in the 2014-15 season. Marchand and Pastrňák have continued to produce at elite levels, but the latter is still only on pace for 40 goals after notching 61 and 47 in the prior two years. Lindholm has flamed out, limited to 10-19–29 through 57 games – unjustifiable production for his $7.75MM cap hit, no matter how well he grades out defensively (where he’s had average possession impacts this season).

Including Lindholm, five Bruins forwards have produced in the 15-30 point range at this point in the season. Among the pack are Frederic and Geekie, both in their primes and don’t have bonafide top-six ceilings on a championship-contending team. It makes sense they’d at least be talked about by Bruins management as they begin the shift to prioritizing younger, higher-upside pieces in their lineup.

However, Carlo’s name is more surprising to see on the list of potentially available players. In past years, his $4.1MM cap hit would have been considered below market value, especially as he’s locked in through the 2026-27 campaign. A tough year from the 28-year-old likely diminishes his trade value slightly, but with a lengthy track record of being a stalwart top-four defender, it’s likely teams will see a down season as a blip, not a trend, from a right-shot defender below 30 years old.

He will immediately rank among the top righties available on deadline day if Boston shifts from just taking calls to shopping him. That said, his all-around numbers this season aren’t inspiring. His 18:40 ATOI is his lowest since arriving in Boston nine years ago, and while he’s not relied upon for offense, his nine points in 56 games is the lowest pace we’ve seen from him in four years. Defensive metrics don’t paint a rosy picture, either. Carlo’s penalty kill time has been eaten into by Nikita Zadorov, and at even strength, his 45.6 CF% and -9.0 expected rating rank worst among the team’s full-time blue-liners. Extremely difficult defensive minutes don’t do him any good there, but with the latter number tracking as a career-worst, it’s a cause for concern.

Bruins Receiving Trade Interest In Trent Frederic

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Boston Bruins forward Trent Frederic is reportedly receiving trade interest from multiple teams (as per Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet on Saturday Headlines). It is the second time in two weeks that Friedman has reported on the interest in Frederic, and it’s fair to wonder if Boston will move the 26-year-old given his current contract situation. Frederic is in the final season of a two-year $4.6MM contract that expires on July 1st, 2025, at which time he will become an unrestricted free agent. The teams calling on Frederic are asking if Boston intends to sign Frederic or what their thinking could be going forward.

The St. Louis, Missouri native had a career year last year, posting 18 goals and 22 assists in 82 games with a +9 plus/minus rating. This year, Frederic has seen his offensive numbers fall to just five goals and six assists in 38 games. While the drop in production is concerning, the biggest issue for Frederic has been his shooting percentage which has dropped from 14.6% to 9.3%.

Given Boston’s current standing in the Atlantic Division (third place), it’s unlikely the Bruins would opt to be sellers. However, Boston has played significantly more games than Tampa Bay and Ottawa, so they may fall into a Wild Card spot. The Bruins could also look to move Frederic in the hopes of plugging a different hole in their roster but given Frederic’s ability to play center and wing, Boston may view his versatility more favorably than any potential returns via trade.

East Notes: Frederic, Ristolainen, Benning

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In an unsurprising but notable report, ESPN’s Kevin Weekes shares that Boston Bruins forward Trent Frederic should have plenty of interest in his services once he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, 2025. Frederic has developed into a prototypical Bruins forward, combining physicality and toughness with a knack for goal-scoring.

Frederic plays a similar style to Washington Capitals forward Tom Wilson although he hasn’t racked up nearly the number of PIMs as the veteran. From 2022-24, Frederic scored 35 goals and 71 points in 161 games for the Bruins while also collecting 309 hits. He has more experience down the middle which should give him some extra value but his career 44.4% success rate in the dot leaves a lot to be desired.

Outside of his solid offensive output as a middle-six center, Frederic can also be trusted in the defensive zone. He averaged 57.4% of his zone starts in the defensive zone during the 2023-24 regular season and still managed a 91.3% on-ice save percentage in all situations.

Aside from likely interest in free agency, Frederic could be an interesting trade chip throughout the 2024-25 regular season. Boston has gotten off to a disappointing 6-6-1 start to the regular season and Frederic could be valuable trade bait closer to the deadline should the trend continue.

Other notes from the Eastern Conference:

  • If the last four years were any indication, the Philadelphia Flyers are again expected to be a deadline seller evidenced by their 4-7-1 start to the regular season. One trade piece the organization has is defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen who will have two years and $10.2MM left on his contract after this year. Given the market over the last few seasons, Ristolainen’s size and physicality on the blue line could warrant a first-round draft pick according to Anthony Di Marco of Daily Faceoff. Di Marco may be correct in his thinking regarding size and physicality but a first-round pick for an edge top-four defenseman still appears bullish at face value.
  • Another piece already publicly on the trade block is Toronto Maple Leafs’ defenseman Matt Benning. The organization may have difficulty shedding the two years and $2.5MM left on Benning’s current four-year contract but they likely have a contingency plan. In an article from James Mirtle of The Athletic (Subscription Article), he shares that Toronto is likely to place Benning on waivers should they not find a suitable trade. It stands to reason the Maple Leafs are more willing to lose Benning over Conor Timmins once they ultimately activate Jani Hakanpää from the injured reserve.

East Notes: Bruins, Hillman, Jenkins, Howe

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The Boston Bruins are unsurprisingly being more aggressive with some extension candidates this summer with the ongoing contract negotiations between the organization and goaltender Jeremy Swayman likely dragging into the regular season. Ty Anderson of 98.5 The Sports Hub reported earlier this morning that Boston had already opened extension negotiations with forwards Brad Marchand, Morgan Geekie, and Trent Frederic.

There has seemingly been no movement with Swayman throughout the summer on a long-term contract leading the Bruins’ general manager Don Sweeney and the rest of the front office to take a more pragmatic approach for next summer. There was no word in the original report if any of the three players would be interested in continuing negotiations throughout the 2024-25 regular season. Still, Boston appears to be getting a head start on their asking price.

Marchand’s next contract will be one of the more interesting situations to see play out as he has arguably been playing on one of the biggest bargain contracts in the league over the last seven years. The Bruins signed Marchand to an eight-year, $49MM extension in 2016 and he’s scored 209 goals and 555 points in 495 regular season games over the life of that deal. Boston’s captain will be heading into his age 37 season on his next contract and it remains to be seen if Marchand will look for more salary with his prime years behind him.

Other East notes:

  • The New York Rangers added a bit of depth to their training camp roster earlier today by recalling Blake Hillman and Blade Jenkins from their AHL affiliate, the Hartford Wolf Pack (X Link). Both players are on AHL contracts for the 2024-25 season with the former being the only one with previous experience at the NHL level. Hillman has spent several years bouncing around the AHL but suited up in four games for the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2017-18 NHL while scoring one goal overall.
  • The WHL’s Regina Pats will be waiting with bated breath to determine the status of their captain, Tanner Howe. Howe, who was recently selected with the 46th overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft by the Pittsburgh Penguins, was pulled from today’s game against the Moose Jaw Warriors by the team’s medical staff with an undisclosed injury. Howe’s already skated in two games in the young WHL season scoring one goal overall after participating in the Penguins’ rookie camp over the summer.

Bruins Notes: Top Six, Chiasson, Frederic, Assistant Coach Vacancy

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Boston Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery sat down for an interview with Steve Conroy of The Boston Herald that was published early this morning, being quite forthcoming about quite a few subjects of note for Bruins fans. Perhaps most impactful, at least in the short term, was that Montgomery has essentially decided what the team’s first and second forward lines will look like entering the season.

It’s no easy task – the team’s loss of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci has been their biggest story of the offseason, along with other solid complementary scorers such as last year’s trade deadline acquisition, Tyler Bertuzzi. Montgomery believes “everything else is going to be a work in progress” as training camp plays out, but he expects to spread out the team’s two remaining stars, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, on different lines. He plans on keeping the duo of Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha together, a partnership that helped elevate the 26-year-old Zacha to a career-high 21 goals and 57 points last season. They’ll likely be flanked by veteran free agent signing James van Riemsdyk on the left wing. Marchand, on the other hand, will lead the team’s de facto second line with Charlie Coyle at center and Jake DeBrusk at right wing.

Other thoughts on the Bruins from Montgomery:

  • Alex Chiasson may be a member of the Bruins on a tryout basis only, but it seems Montgomery has already penciled in the 32-year-old as a net-front presence on the team’s second power-play unit. “I thought Detroit’s power play became extremely tough to check the last two times we played them when he was at the net front,” Montgomery told Conroy. “So there’s a niche that he could possibly grab a hold of for our team.” Chiasson landed an NHL contract with Detroit at last season’s trade deadline after spending the year on an AHL contract with their affiliate in Grand Rapids. He recorded six goals and nine points in 20 games down the stretch of the regular season, with seven of those nine points coming on the power play.
  • Montgomery also doesn’t anticipate moving forward Trent Frederic to center as some anticipated, instead keeping him on the right wing. He believes Frederic’s two-way game is most effective on the wing, and they’ll need him to contribute as much as he can in a bottom-six secondary role. That means free agent signing Morgan Geekie could be in line to assume the team’s third-line center role behind Zacha and Coyle after averaging just 10:27 per game for the Seattle Kraken last season.
  • Lastly, Montgomery confirmed the team plans to replace former assistant coach John Gruden before the season starts, although in a different role. Gruden left after just one season with the Bruins to serve as head coach for the AHL’s Toronto Marlies next season. Gruden’s previous responsibilities, managing the defense and the penalty kill, will be delegated to the Bruins’ remaining two assistants, Chris Kelly and Joe Sacco. Montgomery says the team’s hire to replace Gruden will be more development-focused and won’t be on the bench during games.

Boston Bruins, Trent Frederic Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement

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11:00 AM: The Bruins have now officially announced the agreement, confirming the terms that were first reported by Friedman.

9:00 AM: The Boston Bruins have reached an agreement on a new contract with RFA forward Trent Frederic before today’s scheduled arbitration hearing. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Bruins have agreed with Frederic on a two-year, $2.3MM AAV contract extension. According to Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland, the deal has a $250k signing bonus in its first year.

The contract comes closer to Frederic’s desired AAV (he had filed for a one-year, $2.9MM deal) at the cost of an extra year of term, something the Bruins filed for albeit at a $1.4MM AAV.

In our more detailed breakdown of Frederic’s arbitration case, we projected “Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM,” which is exactly where this settlement came in.

At a $150k higher rate than the midpoint of the two parties’ filings, the Bruins have rewarded their second 2016 first-round pick for his breakout 2022-23 campaign. Frederic flew past his career highs to register 17 goals and 31 points in 79 games last season even while averaging just under 12 minutes of ice time per night.

As mentioned in our breakdown, Frederic’s possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t likely to be that of a one-year wonder, although one does wonder how he’d hold up if exposed to a more demanding role requiring him to handle more substantial minutes.

Frederic doesn’t boast a ton of offensive skill but as a six-foot-three, 214-pound forward with the versatility to play center or along the wing Frederic is the sort of forward who plays with an edge and provides enough scoring touch to be coveted by many clubs. This settlement marches Frederic to the unrestricted free agent market in two year’s time, and if he can seize the significant opportunity in front of him he could be lined up for a major payday at that point.

With Boston’s top two centers from last season in Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci out the door, Frederic could potentially get the opportunity to play center for one of Boston’s scoring lines, potentially slotting next to a star such as David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand. Although players such as Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle are undoubtedly going to be first in line for those opportunities, Frederic could get his chance, which would be a potentially career-defining opportunity.

This two-year contract provides Frederic with a significant opportunity, but also heightened expectations. Now paid more than double the $1.05MM cap hit he played last season on, Frederic can no longer be the physical fourth-line presence he was earlier in his career. He’ll need to be more, and if he can do so he could stand to make quite a bit of money in two year’s time thanks to this new contract.

As for where this leaves the Bruins, they now have just over $3.1MM in cap space left over, and still await an arbitration award in netminder Jeremy Swayman’s case. Swayman had his arbitration hearing on July 30th and therefore should have his award come in today, meaning the Bruins are close to reaching cost certainty for the team’s expected 2023-24 roster.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Arbitration Breakdown: Trent Frederic

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We’re entering the final few days of the salary arbitration calendar, meaning most of the remaining notable restricted free agents will have contracts in place for next season by the end of next week. There are a number of notable cases that remain unsettled, including a pair of high-end young goalies in the Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman and the Minnesota Wild’s Filip Gustavsson. Swayman’s hearing is today, meaning we’ll learn his contractual fate for next season on Tuesday. However, there’s a teammate of Swayman’s and an important depth piece for the Bruins facing an arbitration hearing of his own – forward Trent Frederic, who now has just 48 hours remaining until his arbitration hearing on Tuesday.

Filings

Team: two years, $1.4MM AAV
Player: one year, $2.9MM AAV
Midpoint: $2.15MM AAV

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

2022-23 was a breakout year for Frederic, recording career highs in offensive categories across the board. While he may not be a long-term top-flight center solution as the Bruins envisioned when they selected him 29th overall in 2016, the 25-year-old has grown into an extremely effective bottom-six power forward. His scoring skyrocketed this season despite not seeing a major increase in ice time, and he didn’t sacrifice the solid defensive play he’d shown in his two prior full NHL seasons. His 17 goals were sixth on the powerhouse Bruins last year despite playing under 12 minutes per game.

If advanced analytics hold any bearing in arbitration hearings, Frederic’s side should use them to their advantage. Many of his possession-based metrics indicate his production this season isn’t a fluke, as his ability to drive play has steadily grown during his time in the NHL. However, it is fair to wonder if an increase in ice time (and, therefore, tougher matchups) may diminish his effectiveness slightly. It’s an important factor to take into consideration, as Frederic is expected to play a bigger role on the Bruins next season with wing depth like Taylor Hall and Tyler Bertuzzi no longer on the team.

His NHL career doesn’t carry a terribly long track record, though, something that may give the arbitrator some pause. Frederic hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark in his career, and he only transformed into an everyday NHLer this season, oftentimes being healthy scratched at points throughout the 2020-21 and 2021-22 campaigns.

2022-23 Stats: 79 GP, 17-14-31, +28 rating, 57 PIMs, 120 shots, 11:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 198 GP, 29-25-54, +25 rating, 194 PIMs, 284 shots, 11:27 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Frederic’s negotiation. 

Philipp Kurashev (Blackhawks) – Kurashev is a few years younger than Frederic but has a similar amount of NHL experience. Like Frederic, he also posted career-highs in offensive categories last season but had less production and infinitely worse defensive results. However, Kurashev was relied upon to play heavy minutes (more than 17 minutes per game) for a lottery Blackhawks team – likely more responsibility than he was fit to handle. An arbitrator awarded Kurashev a $2.25MM AAV last week, coming in above the midpoint of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings. Given Frederic’s better scoring and two-way play but extremely sheltered minutes, this could fall close to the arbitrator’s final decision here.

Warren Foegele (Hurricanes) – This comparison may be a bit dated (Foegele had his arbitration award in November 2020), but played a much more similar role on the Hurricanes to Frederic’s on the Bruins than in the Kurashev comparison outlined above. After a season in which Foegele registered similar offensive production to Frederic (30 points in 68 games), an arbitrator awarded him a $2.15MM deal for the 2020-21 campaign. It presents a solid argument for the arbitrator to rule right down the middle of Boston’s and Frederic’s filings.

Artturi Lehkonen (Canadiens) – Lehkonen had filed for arbitration with the Canadiens in the summer of 2021, but the two sides came to a pre-hearing agreement on a one-year deal worth $2.3MM. Lehkonen was the same age as Frederic at the time of signing and produced similarly strong two-way results, although Lekhonen had significantly more NHL experience at the time of signing, with 338 games under his belt. However, he was coming off a down season – just seven goals and 13 points in 47 games, hurting his stock.

Projection

No matter what, it does seem Frederic will be signing a two-year contract unless the arbitrator awards significantly in his favor. As Frederic was the party that filed for arbitration, Boston is free to choose between a one-year or two-year pact based on the AAV awarded by the arbitrator. The contract would walk Frederic directly to unrestricted free agency, but it’s something Boston is evidently comfortable with based on their filing.

The comparisons outlined place Frederic’s likely award very near to but likely slightly above the midpoint of $2.15MM. It seems unlikely the arbitrator would go any higher than $2.5MM on an award, though, especially considering his limited ice time and consistent fourth-line role. Regardless, it’s likely he’ll more than double his $1.05MM salary from the last two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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