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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM

Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games.  If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses.  Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.

Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength.  He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him.  A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well.  Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart.  With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag.  He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)

Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years.  That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market.  Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable.  Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either.  He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance.  Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.

Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him.  If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer.  If not, he’s a non-tender candidate.  Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark.  Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)

Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term.  However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM).  At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement.  Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025.  Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.

Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks.  On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now.  Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster.  Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career.  At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).

Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago.  His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024.  Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience.  He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.

Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod.  If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)

Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close.  In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment.  Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract.  Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver.  There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.

Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion.  When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.

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Poll: Who Will Win The Atlantic Division?

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After asking our readers to pick the winners of the Central and Pacific Divisions next season, it’s time to turn toward the Eastern Conference. While the Pacific Division vote was split nearly evenly between the Edmonton Oilers (who held the edge) and the Calgary Flames, the Colorado Avalanche dominated the vote counter for the Central, garnering over 62% of the votes. No other team had more than 15%.

The Eastern Conference, like last season, carries a far bit more intrigue, though. With a tumultuous offseason, there’s poised to be a shuffling of the deck, with former titans falling and upstart teams emerging.

No team may exemplify that better than last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners — the Florida Panthers. Last season’s 58-18-6 record was by far the best in team history, but they bowed out quietly in the Second Round, being swept by the eventual Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

That playoff disappointment beckoned a host of changes, beginning behind the bench. Interim head coach and Jack Adams Award finalist Andrew Brunette was dismissed in favor of veteran coach Paul Maurice, who aims to gel the team’s defensive holes that ultimately doomed them. That will be a tough challenge with a defense core that’s already missing Mackenzie Weegar via trade and whose most notable additions were depth veterans Marc Staal and Michael Del Zotto. A refresh on offense also hit the team’s scoring depth, with breakout star Mason Marchment departing in free agency and franchise cornerstone Jonathan Huberdeau replaced with Matthew Tkachuk. The team will also have to manage the first few months of the season without Anthony Duclair, who’s rehabbing an Achilles tendon injury.

The Toronto Maple Leafs roared to a 115-point season last year for second place in the division, but they too have taken hits to the roster. A new goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov begs more questions than it gives answers, and the team will miss Ilya Mikheyev and Ondrej Kase as important depth scoring. They did get some of that depth back in the form of Calle Jarnkrok signing in free agency, but the team will largely be forced to run it back with question marks in net.

2021-22 was a season of threes for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who finished third in the Atlantic en route to their third straight Stanley Cup Final appearance. After losing in the Final, though, they’ll need to figure out how to replace the losses of Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh largely internally. They’ll bet on a big breakout season from forward Brandon Hagel, who they paid a steep price at the Trade Deadline to acquire just for that reason. They’ll also have to get through the start of the year without Selke-caliber center Anthony Cirelli, who’s likely out until December with a shoulder injury.

The Boston Bruins are bringing Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci back for one last ride, but they’ll have to do it without Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk, and Mike Reilly to start the season. With that level of firepower out of the lineup, it could spell trouble in such a competitive division. An apparent downgrade behind the bench as well means the team could struggle to reach the 50-win, 100-point mark again this season.

The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings both made incredible splashes in free agency, and figure to make it a six-team race for three to five playoff spots in the Atlantic. Ottawa’s additions of Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux give them one of the highest-powered top-sixes in the conference, while Detroit’s additions of David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Ben Chiarot give them high-quality depth to support their growing stars.

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens, while likely to be at the bottom of the division again, will both look to take steps forward with significant improvement expected from their young franchise cornerstone. Owen Power’s rookie performance will be the storyline all season in Buffalo, while Cole Caufield will look to transform his elite skill into the consistency required to be an All-Star.

So, PHR readers, we ask you again — who do you think will win the Atlantic Division next season? Make sure to vote in the poll below and leave a comment below to contribute to the discussion.

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2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Seventh Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
2nd Overall: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings (2)
3rd Overall: Roman Josi, Atlanta Thrashers (38)
4th Overall: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues (4)
5th Overall: Erik Karlsson, Toronto Maple Leafs (15)
6th Overall: John Carlson, Columbus Blue Jackets (27)

Instead of the underwhelming Nikita Filatov, the Blue Jackets grab one of the best offensive defensemen of the last decade. Carlson has posted at least 70 points in three of the past four years and reached his career-high of 75 in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign, earning him a second-place finish in the Norris Trophy voting. He logged nearly 26 minutes a night in his 2018 Stanley Cup run and is on track to hit 600 career points early this season. It’s not often that a draft has five defensemen this capable that can dominate the early board but the Blue Jackets have followed the trend and picked their own franchise blueliner.

We now move on to the seventh selection and the first of two first-round selections by the Nashville Predators.

There was always a chance that the Predators could change the direction of their franchise with the 2008 draft, though few would expect it to come from the second round, when Josi was selected 38th. Instead, one would have thought it was either the seventh or 18th pick that would become the franchise-altering talent down the road.

With their first selection, general manager David Poile (who has been well connected to USA hockey for a very long time) decided to dip into the college ranks and take freshman standout, Colin Wilson, from Boston University. Wilson had absolutely dominated the U18s, scored six goals in six games at the World Juniors and had NHL pedigree. His father, Carey Wilson, had scored over 400 points at the NHL level and competed in the Olympics (for Canada), his uncle Geoff Wilson was a draft pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and his grandfather Jerry Wilson played three games for the Montreal Canadiens in 1956-57. In fact, Carey had been acquired by the Calgary Flames just months after Poile had left his role there as AGM, making the selection of Colin a kind of odd family circle.

This wasn’t some nepotistic pick, though. Wilson was a powerhouse for BU, scoring 12 goals and 35 points in 37 games as a freshman, making him the ninth-ranked North American skater by NHL Central Scouting and a sure bet to be an impact player at the professional level. When he won the Jim Johannson Award as the USA Hockey College Player of the Year the following season and led BU to a national championship, it was clear he was ready to make the jump. He played in the World Championship that spring against NHL talent (where Poile was AGM for the U.S. team) and then transitioned to professional hockey in 2009-10.

While he may not be the best player selected that year, Wilson had a solid career, scoring 113 goals and 286 points in 632 games. He was a versatile middle-six forward for many years with the Predators, reaching a career-high 20 goals and 42 points in 2014-15.

After announcing his retirement in early 2021, Wilson continued to have a positive impact in a very different way. He released an emotional piece in The Players’ Tribune that detailed his struggles with a diagnosis of obsessive-compulsive disorder, his battle to keep a career on the rails, and his hopes that others facing similar difficulties would open up about them in the future.

I played in the NHL. I lived my dream. And I fought through hell to make a career for myself. My name might not be on the Stanley Cup, and that’s fine. Because I know there is an opportunity ahead of me to not just leave my mark on the game of hockey, but also on lives all across the world.

When Jimmy Hayes tragically died in the summer of 2021 because of an apparent drug overdose, Wilson took to the Tribune’s pages again, to go even deeper into his own history of drug abuse. It was an attempt to come clean with himself and perhaps shine a bit brighter spotlight on the growing overdose epidemic, and how it affects people with mental health disorders.

Unlike some of the other players that were picked in the first round, Wilson wasn’t a bust. He sits 18th in points among all players from the draft class. But With the advantage of hindsight, the Predators can pick a different talent, someone that would have had an even greater effect on the organization.

With the seventh overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft, who will the Nashville Predators select? Cast your vote below.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Who Is Next To Rebuild?

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It seems every year in the NHL, a team mired in a years-long rebuild finally turns a corner and becomes a legitimate contender again while a team that has been successful for a long time finally decides it needs to start over and enters its own rebuild. One would think that the 2022-23 season wouldn’t be an exception, but while there are several teams that seem to be turning the corner, such as the Anaheim Ducks, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators, it’s not immediately clear who is heading for an imminent rebuild. Sure, some teams already in a rebuild stepped up their efforts a bit, like the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks, but their process had already begun. Before looking at the teams that could be in this unenviable position, we’ll attempt to classify the rest of the pack.

Window is Staying Open: CAR, CGY, COL, DAL, EDM, FLA, NYR, TBL, TOR

Up and Coming: ANA, BUF, CBJ, DET, LAK, NJD, OTT, VAN

Already Rebuilding: ARI, CHI, MTL, PHI, SEA, SJS

After trying to sort out where a large portion of the league stands on their builds, that leaves nine teams in a sort-of limbo state. These teams could, in theory, win the Stanley Cup this year, could be a team on the fringe of the playoff picture, or could find themselves needing to start things over. Once again, the remaining teams appear to fit into one of three categories on their status:

Proven Winner With A Veteran Core:

The teams best placed here would be the Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues, and Washington Capitals. With their current build, three teams have won at least one Stanley Cup (Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Washington), one has made it to the Cup Final, Boston, and the fifth, the Islanders, made back-to-back Conference Finals. All five of these teams, for the most part, have a key group of players who are towards the later stages of their prime, if not out of it, and all have a substantial portion of that core signed for at least a couple more seasons.

A team like the Islanders who has one of the older groups, also has the largest portion of that group signed long-term. That, combined with their lack of a Stanley Cup would make them seem as though they will try at least a couple more times to be a winner. But the age and cap implications could have a volatile effect. To the opposite, Pittsburgh and Washington have achieved the ultimate goal so rebuilding when necessary would be easier to stomach. But, unlike the Capitals, the Penguins recently signed two players in their mid-30’s to long-term extensions. Either way, both teams have several veterans still at the top of their game.

Boston is in their own unique situation, as they have a few players in or entering their prime, such as David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Jeremy Swayman and that group hasn’t won a Cup with the team. But time could be running out on veterans, and previous Cup winners, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Krejci, not to mention Pastrnak’s looming free agency.

Lastly, St. Louis has a relatively younger core, which they’ve won with, but will be faced with nearly all of their key players hitting the UFA market in the next couple of seasons. If they can manage to keep those pieces while also managing their cap, they could easily fit in above with the windows open group but if not, a rebuild might be less of a choice than simply reality.

Cap Concerns:

The two teams included in this section, the Minnesota Wild and Vegas Golden Knights, have both impressed in recent seasons and boast a roster that would appear as though it can compete going forward. But, managing the cap will not only prove burdensome, but has already forced a number of moves that represent a step back for the organization. First, Vegas has sacrificed plenty in order to be instantly competitive and maintain themselves through their first five years in the league. That was as clear as ever last offseason when they traded Vezina Trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury for a minor league player, and this offseason when they traded star forward Max Pacioretty for future considerations. The team has had to make sacrifices of real talent in order to stay cap compliant and keep the remainder of their group intact, which could spell disaster.

The Minnesota Wild have otherwise managed their cap situation rather well, but have put themselves in a difficult position with the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, which will put $12.74MM against their cap this year and $14.74MM the two years after. The Wild already had to trade the dynamic Kevin Fiala to make things work for 2022-23 and things only figure to get more difficult over the next three seasons. One bright side, the group they currently fit in with the penalties has shown they can perform as well as anyone.

Of note, one might think the Tampa Bay Lightning are a perfect fit in this section, however the recent extensions of Erik Cernak,, Anthony Cirelli, and Mikhail Sergachev show the organization has no plans on changing course for a considerably long time.

Lack Of Performance:

The Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets provide two of the most fascinating examples of teams that could rebuild, could breakout, or could just simply stay as a middle-of-the-road team. Both teams have a number of exciting names, many of whom are signed for at least a few years, but neither seem to be among the best of the best. This offseason the Predators re-signed Filip Forsberg and acquired Ryan McDonagh, showing their desire to stay competitive and improve. However, since their appearance in the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals, the team has made it past the first round once, back in 2018. Even with breakout performances from Forsberg, Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen along with an all-time performance from Roman Josi, the Predators just made it into the playoffs, losing to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Colorado Avalanche in the first round.

Winnipeg, like Nashville, carries several star players including Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, and Mark Scheifele along with former Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. Still, that group has made it past the first round once since their Western Conference Finals appearance in 2018, and failed to make the postseason altogether this year. Now with an older Blake Wheeler, as well as Scheifele an Hellebuyck each two years away from free agency, Winnipeg may need to re-evaluate their build if it can’t compete for a Stanley Cup regularly with this group.

Considering the teams that seem poised for a rebuild, who is the most likely one to blink first and tear things down? Could it be a team that’s had a good run but needs to get younger? A team that just needs to reset from a salary cap perspective? A team who just hasn’t been able to meet their goals? Or an unexpected candidate?

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This Day In Transactions History: Ilya Kovalchuk Signs Revised Fifteen-Year Contract With New Jersey Devils

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What if there had been an Ilya Kovalchuk, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt line going into next season? At age 39, perhaps Kovalchuk would have been destined for the third line with some combination of Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar, Andreas Johnsson, and Dawson Mercer. It’s likely this isn’t exactly what the Devils and their fans were thinking when the team signed Kovalchuk to a 17-year, $102MM contract back in July 2010. After all, Hughes was just nine-years-old, current team captain Nico Hischier was 11, and All-Star defenseman Dougie Hamilton was looking to boost his stock in the 2011 draft with a big year for the Niagara IceDogs.

In reality, nothing went to plan when the Devils and then-GM Lou Lamoriello signed the 17-year pact with Kovalchuk, the NHL taking issue with it as a form of salary cap circumvention, an arbitrator agreeing with them. This would force a negotiation between the league and the NHLPA on how to handle the structure of long-term contracts. On top of Kovalchuk, the NHL had been looking into the contracts of Chris Pronger, Roberto Luongo, Marc Savard, and Marian Hossa, all of whom had received long-term, front-loaded contracts that carried salaries at or near the league minimum in the final few years, which served to bring down the overall cap hit of the deal.

In sum, the league and the players agreed to rules affecting new contracts (as of September, 2010) for five years or longer that lasted at least to a player’s 41st birthday which would give a more accurate reflection of the salary the player was earning. The agreement also made sure the issue wouldn’t automatically carry over into the next CBA, and of course, rules on contracts have changed dramatically since the 2012-13 lockout. Now, seven or eight-year maximums, consistent cap hits, 35+ contracts, and the like regulate at least that form of salary cap circumvention.

After the dispute, New Jersey and Kovalchuk agreed on a revised 15-year, $100MM contract on September 3, 2010 that would run through the 2024-25 season, carrying a cap hit of $6.67MM. The matter now settled, the Devils were looking ahead to their fourth Stanley Cup with their superstar in hand. Of course, as we know, the drama was far from over. During the first three years, Kovalchuk would be solid, but New Jersey would miss the playoffs in two of the three years. However, Kovalchuk and the Devils would take the Los Angeles Kings to Game Six of the 2012 Stanley Cup Finals, the winger playing a big part of that run.

Unfortunately for New Jersey, during the 2012-13 lockout, Kovalchuk would return home to Russia, playing with SKA St. Petersburg, who he had considered signing with during his 2010 free agency. The experience playing close to home and having his family nearby had an impact on Kovalchuk, who informed Lamoriello of his intention to return home to Russia after the shortened 2012-13 campaign. At just 30-years-old, Kovalchuk voluntarily retired from the NHL following the 2012-13 season, leaving 12 years and $77MM on the table. The Devils, who had already lost Zach Parise to free agency the year prior, were given a yearly $250K cap-recapture penalty, which is in effect through 2024-25, but were handed the forward’s cap hit back.

The 2013 offseason saw New Jersey bring in Jaromir Jagr to replace Kovalchuk’s production, the 41-year-old turning in an impressive 67-point campaign, but the Devils would miss out on the playoffs, finishing with 88 points. The team struggled to start the 2014-15 season, firing Head Coach Peter DeBoer and Lamoriello leaving that spring for an opportunity with the Toronto Maple Leafs. The organization would head into a full-scale rebuild, one which has, outside of a 2017-18 playoff appearance lead by Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall, lasted through this offseason. Things look to have finally turned a corner in New Jersey, lead by Hughes, Hischier, Mercer, Hamilton, and a world class group of prospects including Luke Hughes, Simon Nemec, and Alexander Holtz, but the aftermath of trying to re-sign and then losing Kovalchuk is apparent.

The Devils and their fans may, and rightfully so, attribute this long, painful rebuild at least in part to Kovalchuk’s abrupt departure, however they may have been best-served by it. At the time of signing, New Jersey was expecting Kovalchuk to lead a team backstopped by an aging Martin Brodeur and lead up front by an older Patrik Elias. Though Cory Schneider was able to step-up as one of the league’s better goaltenders during their rebuild, the team didn’t really have the younger, supporting cast to put around Kovalchuk as he entered his 30’s. And, having his relatively large cap hit on the books would have made doing so, and likely rebuilding on-the-fly, rather difficult. That would have in turn likely delayed the inevitable: a lengthy, painful rebuild.

As for Kovalchuk, the winger got his wish to head home to play in his native Russia and have his family nearby, something he accounted for when he left the $77MM on the table back in New Jersey. He would spend five more seasons with St. Petersburg, serving as one of the league’s best players on a premier team. Following the 2017-18 season, the Devils’ NHL rights over the forward expired and a 35-year-old Kovalchuk sought a return to the NHL. He’d sign a three-year, $18.75MM contract with the Los Angeles Kings, but had his contract terminated part-way through the 2019-20 season.

The Kovalchuk mega-deal, whether it be the original or the revised, wasn’t the first or the last handed out by an NHL organization, but holds significant weight in NHL history. First, one of the league’s very best players leaving in his prime, with more money than most players will ever earn left on the table was one of the biggest and strangest transactions in hockey’s history, perhaps in sports history period. Further, the original deal and the revised, provided a roadmap that would change the framework of the NHL’s contract and salary cap systems for the long-haul. The changes brought about by the first contract sparked the league’s desire for change, which became a focal point for the 2012-13 lockout.

Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Seattle Kraken

Current Cap Hit: $81,489,166 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Beniers (two years, $897.5K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $925K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $3.9875MM

Beniers was the second-overall selection last year and had a dominant year at Michigan before making the jump to the pros where he averaged just shy of a point per game down the stretch.  He should become their top center within the next couple of seasons and with it, a long-term deal in the $8MM range could be on the table based on recent comparable signings.  With his expected role, he should reach his bonuses this season which will need to be factored into their cap plans.  Wright slipped to fourth overall last month after being the consensus number one for a lot of the last two seasons but has been billed as being NHL-ready.  They’ll be able to ease him in which could result in some lower production at the beginning although it shouldn’t affect his second contract that much unless he’s in a limited role longer than expected.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($1.4MM, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($825K, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
F Kole Lind ($825K, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)

Donskoi was one of Seattle’s higher-profile pickups in expansion but struggled considerably last season, scoring just twice in 75 games.  While it’s likely that he’ll rebound to an extent, he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than about two-thirds of his current cost unless he has a career year.  Geekie’s first full NHL season was a decent one as he acquitted himself in somewhat of a limited role while being their best player at the faceoff dot.  Even in a bottom-six role, there’s some room for him to pass the $2MM mark next summer.  Donato returned after being non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration and while he is coming off a career year, the fact he wasn’t able to do better than this on the open market doesn’t bode well for his odds next summer.  Lind, Kuhlman, and Hayden will be battling for the final forward spot or two on the roster but are unlikely to command much more than their current rates unless one of them can step into a legitimate full-time role.

GM Ron Francis felt that Dunn would be able to stand out more with a bigger role and he did just that, tying his career-high in points while setting a new benchmark in assists.  Another showing like that could push him past the $5MM mark next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility.  Soucy wasn’t able to land in Seattle’s top four very often last year but that didn’t stop him from showing off an improved offensive element to his game as he scored ten goals which is two more than the previous two years combined.  With the size he also brings, a repeat performance could allow him to generate a strong market that could push his AAV into the $3MM range despite being a third-pairing piece which is an area teams often try to save money in.  For Soucy, they might make an exception.  Borgen was a frequent healthy scratch last season which certainly wasn’t the Kraken debut he was hoping for.  A similar role could have him in non-tender territory next summer while if he does lock down a spot on the third pairing, a one-year deal at a small raise might be the route Seattle opts to take.

Jones is coming off another quiet year with the Flyers and has failed to post a save percentage above .900 over the last four seasons.  Despite that, Seattle opted for him as their backup goaltender for the upcoming campaign but at some point, it stands to reason that another below-average performance will push him down closer to the $1MM mark next summer.

Signed Through 2023-24

G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)

Eberle’s first season with Seattle saw him play a similar role to the one that he had with the Islanders so it’s not surprising that his production was largely in line with his performance with New York.  It’s an output that isn’t quite worth $5.5MM but if he can stay around the 20-goal mark for the next couple of seasons, he should be able to land somewhat close to this on his next deal.  Wennberg wasn’t quite able to replicate the production he had with the Panthers but his output at the center position is worth close to his current rate compared to the open market.  However, with Beniers and Wright around, can he get those numbers again?  That will dictate a lot when it comes to his next contract as to whether a small raise could be had or a sizable drop.

Schultz comes over from Washington where he’s coming off a quiet year offensively by his standards which made this commitment a bit surprising.  He should have an opportunity to play a bigger role offensively which could help but even so, he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts so it’d be hard to foresee a big raise on the horizon.

Driedger had a tough first season with the Kraken although he still managed a save percentage of .899, the best on the team.  His second year will be even tougher as an ACL tear suffered at the Worlds will cost him the majority of next season.  Suffice it to say, there will be a lot at stake in 2023-24 when it comes to determining his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)

After a couple of quieter seasons with Tampa Bay, Gourde had a golden opportunity with Seattle last season as he was their all-situations top center.  While his best success came in a lower role with the Lightning, Gourde adapted quite well to being a go-to player and finished second on the team in scoring.  Again, Beniers and eventually Wright will cut into his playing time but for now, this contract is one of Seattle’s better ones.  Tanev was limited to just 32 games last season due to a knee injury but was quite effective over the first couple of months of the season.  His contract has long been viewed as above-market after Pittsburgh signed him for six years at his current price but if he stays near that half a point per game mark while playing his usual strong defensive and physical game, the Kraken will do well with this contract.

Larsson was one of two veteran defensemen to eschew a chance at testing the open market last summer to instead sign a long-term deal with Seattle.  In his case, he received a much bigger role than he was accustomed to with Edmonton which helped him set a new career-best in points.  In the process, he established himself as still being capable of being a second or third defender.  That’s not the most optimal role for him and he wouldn’t be in that role on a top team but any time a team can get a second or third blueliner for this much money, it’s one that they’re going to be quite happy with.  That said, even if he stays in that role for three more years, it’s unlikely the open market will view him at that level.

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2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Sixth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.”  Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science, and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now.  Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?

The results of our redraft so far are as follows with their original draft position in parentheses:

1st Overall: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
2nd Overall: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings (2)
3rd Overall: Roman Josi, Atlanta Thrashers (38)
4th Overall: Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues (4)
5th Overall: Erik Karlsson, Toronto Maple Leafs (15)

If this poll was done a few years ago, Karlsson may have challenged for the top spot given how incredible his early career was. The high-flying defenseman won the Norris Trophy in his third season, another in his sixth, and was the runner-up in years seven and eight. There have been few defensemen in the modern era with such a dominant stretch, and it culminated in the 2017 playoffs when Karlsson nearly carried the Ottawa Senators to the Stanley Cup Final (seemingly by himself at times), leading the team in scoring while playing more than 28 minutes a night.

After some injury-plagued seasons and a massive contract that has made him a financial anchor in San Jose, Karlsson’s career has certainly plateaued and made him the fifth pick in our hindsight draft.

We now move on to the sixth pick and the first real “bust” of the 2008 draft.

The early history of the Columbus Blue Jackets was filled with draft-day mistakes. Rostislav Klesla, Pascal Leclaire, Nikolai Zherdev, Alexandre Picard, Gilbert Brule. Not exactly the definition of a Hall of Fame lineup. By 2008 though, things were starting to look up. The team had obviously hit with Rick Nash, who had become a superstar by that point, and the previous two drafts had produced Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek in the first round (not to mention Steve Mason in the third).

Unfortunately, 2008 wouldn’t be so kind, at least at the top of the board.

After seeing four straight defensemen come off the board with Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Pietrangelo, and Luke Schenn, the Blue Jackets took the podium and went with an incredibly skilled Russian sniper by the name of Nikita Filatov, who had made it to the top domestic league even as a teenager. At the time, some claimed that there was no player in the draft with a higher offensive ceiling than the young winger, who had put up ridiculous numbers in the lower levels in Russia, and dominated at international tournaments against his own age group.

Unlike most Russian players, Filatov wasn’t signed to a contract back home and could come to North America right away, which he did, joining the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL after an early-season stint with the Blue Jackets. The talent was there and during a January recall, he showed it off, recording a hat trick in his sixth NHL game, despite seeing just 16 shifts that night.

If you are wondering why his career page includes just 47 more NHL games, a total of 53 before he went back to the KHL (and also never really developed there), part of Aaron Portzline’s retrospective for The Athletic earlier this summer may have an answer:

Filatov was undeniably skilled and a world-class sniper, but coaches were trying to show him the reward that could be his if he simply followed the puck to the net and showed even a half-hearted willingness to play in traffic.

After four or five clips, Filatov stepped back from the screen as if he was slightly startled. He looked at coach Rob Riley and the video assistant and said, flatly: “Filly don’t do rebounds.”

Filatov would finish his NHL career with just six goals and 14 points, while seven other players in the 2008 top 10 are still active in the league today. It was a devastating miss for an organization that made it to the playoffs for the first time in 2009 and desperately could have used a top-end defenseman to help Nash take the team to the next level–especially because they landed plenty of offensive help in Cam Atkinson way down in the sixth round that year.

So there is no doubt that the Blue Jackets made a mistake in selecting Filatov but who should they have gone with instead? With the sixth overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft, who will the Columbus Blue Jackets select? Cast your vote below.

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Poll: Who Will Win The Central Division?

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A few days ago, we asked the PHR community to predict which team would end up winning the Pacific Division, and there ended up being two clear leaders. The Vancouver Canucks Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle Kraken, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks combined for less than 19% of the vote, with the rest nearly split in half between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames.

The Oilers came out a few percentage points ahead after adding netminder Jack Campbell and bringing back Evander Kane. Calgary’s remade roster with Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, and Nazem Kadri still holds plenty of confidence, a stark change from the days after Jonny Gaudreau’s departure.

While that division is apparently a two-horse race, we now move to the Central, where the vote might not be as close (though maybe it should).

Last year, the Colorado Avalanche would end up taking it after going 56-19-7 in the regular season. They would ride that success all the way to a Stanley Cup championship, and return as the presumptive favorites to take the division once again.

However, there are some changes in Colorado. Kadri, who was an incredibly important play driver for the team last season, has departed to Calgary, while Darcy Kuemper was replaced with Alexandar Georgiev. Andre Burakovsky’s depth scoring has disappeared, and while the team still looks like a very strong contender–having a defense corps led by Cale Makar and Devon Toews will do that–there may be a few chinks in the armor after the dream season.

The Minnesota Wild were second last year, but don’t think they weren’t a powerhouse in their own right. The team finished with a record of 53-22-7, which would have put them first in the Pacific, and went into the playoffs on an 8-1-1 streak. While Kevin Fiala has been sent packing after an outstanding year, the development of Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi means there is still plenty of excitement in Minnesota.

Next was the St. Louis Blues, with their own 109-point campaign, but there is a big question mark in net for next season. Ville Husso, who had emerged as the more reliable option during the year, is gone, leaving Jordan Binnington with Thomas Greiss as his backup. With Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko both headed into their final year under contract, it will be interesting to see what direction the Blues go in this year.

It’s not often you can say a team with Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, and Jamie Benn on it is driven by youth, but that’s exactly the case for the Dallas Stars, who will are ready to hand the keys over to the dynamic trio of Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, and Jake Oettinger. All three were selected in 2017 and all three look like stars in the league at this point. The question for Dallas, of course, is that Robertson and Oettinger remain unsigned to this point.

The Nashville Predators were able to land Nino Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh, adding some depth and Stanley Cup experience to the roster as they try to take another run at the division crown. The emergence of Tanner Jeannot has given them another weapon, while Yakov Trenin has also looked like he could be a difference-maker if given the opportunity.

Then there are the Winnipeg Jets, who many picked as contenders last year and far fewer are dubbing them that this time around. While there are still some outstanding pieces there, it’s getting harder and harder to see how they will keep up without Connor Hellebuyck getting back to Vezina-level goaltending.

The Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes, meanwhile, are both trying to lose–at least enough to secure a high draft position. The rebuilding clubs shouldn’t pose much of a threat in the division, especially after the deadline when they sell off any pieces that are performing at a high level.

So now we ask you, PHR readers, to make your pick for who will win the Central Division in 2022-23! Vote in the poll below and explain your thoughts in the comment section.

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Hit: $82,362,501 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Thomas Bordeleau (two years, $917K)
F William Eklund (three years, $894K)
F Scott Reedy (one year, $843K)

Potential Bonuses
Eklund: $850K
Reedy: $82.5K
Totals: $932.5K

All three of these players are likely to spend some time at both the NHL and AHL levels.  Reedy is the most experienced of the three after spending half of last season with the Sharks in a depth role but he’s the type of player that next summer will be looking at taking less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a higher AHL pay (or a one-way deal).  His bonuses are based on games played so some might be achievable.  If Eklund can lock down a full-time spot in training camp, he’ll have a chance at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses but, like Bordeleau, he’s probably better off playing top minutes in the minors over a lesser role in the NHL.  With both having very limited NHL experience, it’s too early to forecast their next contracts but both players figure to be big parts of San Jose’s future plans.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
F Jonah Gadjovich ($750K, RFA)
F Noah Gregor ($950K, RFA)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($850K, RFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($1.5MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jeffrey Viel ($750K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses:
Nutivaara: $250K

Meier’s contract is a by-product of what teams expected the financial picture to look like at this time, one that featured some significant increases to the Upper Limit.  The heavily back-loaded structure sees him carry a $10MM salary this season which also represents his qualifying offer next summer; while the new CBA put in the 120% of AAV cap (unofficially thought by some as the Meier Rule), contracts signed before that time like his aren’t subjected to it.  Under the projected future cap from a few years ago, a $10MM price point for a top-line winger would have been high but probably reasonable but now, it’s certainly on the high side.  It’s unlikely San Jose would non-tender him next summer even at that price tag but they’ll be wanting him to leave a bit of money on the table from an AAV perspective on a long-term extension.

Bonino has scored at least 10 goals in six straight years and eight of the past nine while winning faceoffs at an above-average rate.  That combination makes him a bottom-six fit for several teams so he should have a decent-sized market next summer at a similar price point to this.  Gregor spent most of last season with the Sharks and acquitted himself well but San Jose’s cap situation basically forced a one-year deal.  He’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer and should add at least a few hundred thousand to his price tag.  Nieto, Gadjovich, and Viel are all role players that are likely to come in below $1MM on their next contracts.

Nutivaara is coming off a season that limited him to just a single appearance due to a lower-body injury but has a track record of being a serviceable third-pairing player.  He’ll max out on his bonuses at 60 games played and if he’s able to suit up that many times, he’ll have a stronger market and a chance to earn a bit more next summer.  Knyzhov missed last season due to a core muscle injury and tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training earlier this month which will cause him to miss at least the first half of the season.  He’s a capable young defender but these injuries will limit him to another short-term, low-cost contract.

Reimer will be the second goaltender next season after Adin Hill was moved to Vegas earlier this week.  The 34-year-old got the bulk of the starts in 2021-22 and did alright considering how much the team struggled.  A similar showing this season would put him in line for at least a small raise as the cost for quality veteran backups continues to rise.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($763K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)

Labanc’s contract is basically the reward he received for taking a significantly below-market contract back in 2019 to help with San Jose’s cap situation at that time.  Things have not gone well since then as he has battled injuries and struggled to produce.  At this point, his market value two years from now might be half of his current cost.  Barabanov quietly finished fifth on the Sharks in scoring last season with 39 points and this deal represents a lower-risk commitment to see if it was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Kunin and Lindblom are newcomers that have shown flashes of upside but haven’t been able to put it together consistently.  Kunin’s cost is a bit high relative to his production but power forwards often get more than market value while Lindblom hasn’t been the same since returning from his bout with cancer which resulted in the Flyers buying him out this summer.  Both are on placeholder deals to see how they’ll fit on a new team and to give the top prospects like Eklund and Bordeleau time to develop.  If things go well, small raises could come their way.  Lorentz comes over from Carolina and is a fourth liner that the Sharks feel might be able to play higher in the lineup.  That will need to happen for him to have a chance at a notable raise next summer.

Simek hardly played last season and doesn’t appear to be part of their plans on the back end beyond a depth spot.  However, this isn’t a particularly ideal market for cutting salary so it’s unlikely that San Jose will be able to move him.  Unless he can lock down a regular role, his next contract will be closer to half of what he’s getting now.  Megna is a serviceable depth defender at the league minimum for two years and if he can play on the third pairing most nights, he’ll have a shot at a small raise in 2024.  Notably for him, this contract is his first one-way pact after four straight two-way deals.

Kahkonen was brought over from Minnesota at the trade deadline with the hopes that he can be San Jose’s starter of the future.  However, a limited track record made a long-term deal very difficult to work out so they effectively settled on another bridge contract.  If he can prove he’s a starter-caliber goalie, doubling his current AAV is achievable but if he proves to be more of a platoon option, his next deal will likely be in the $3MM range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Nico Sturm ($2MM, UFA)

Sturm started his pro career late after going through college first and basically only has the last two seasons as a regular player where his role has been somewhat limited.  Clearly, the Sharks believe there’s some upside that will justify the three-year commitment and if he’s able to produce closer to the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

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