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PHR Mailbag

PHR Mailbag: Sharks, Senators, Golden Knights, Rangers, Panthers

February 17, 2018 at 10:35 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

With the trade deadline now just over a week away, this edition of the PHR Mailbag features plenty of questions about the trade market.

SFGiantsFan28: Do you see the San Jose Sharks doing anything before the deadline? Can they replace Joe Thornton without having to give up high draft picks or prospects?

mz90gu: is there a forward with a similar contract the Sharks can swap for Paul Martin if they can’t trade him?

I’ll lump these two together since they’re both about the Sharks.  I’ve been expecting San Jose to do something trade-wise all season long but they’ve stayed the course and I can’t see the Thornton injury causing them to drastically change course.  If they want a top-six forward to replace him, they’ll have to move top picks or prospects as it’s quite difficult to get a core player without losing a key young asset or two.  A third line center seems like a realistic proposition while allowing them to keep at least most of their cap room in place for next offseason where they should be big players.

Paul MartinMartin is logging some big minutes with the Sharks’ AHL affiliate but he isn’t playing well enough to really give himself much value around the league.  In terms of swapping his contract for a similar forward, Buffalo’s Matt Moulson springs to mind.  The cap hits are quite close ($4.85MM for Martin, $5MM for Moulson) and they each have one year left on their current contracts.  Buffalo needs some help defensively and Moulson has been quite productive since clearing waivers earlier this season.  Jori Lehtera ($4.7MM cap hit through 2018-19) would be another option but the Flyers aren’t likely looking to add defensive help.  Tyler Ennis ($4.6MM cap hit through 2018-19) in Minnesota also fits the bill but the Sharks would likely either have to retain or take some other contract back as the Wild have very little cap space to work with.

ThePriceWasRight: What is the next best move for the Sens? Trade Hoffman? Smith?  How likely is it they buy out Burrows?

After vastly overpaying for Matt Duchene and then giving Dion Phaneuf away for pennies on the dollar value-wise, GM Pierre Dorion needs a big win with his next trade.  The problem for him here will be that it’s shaping up to be a buyers’ market for non-rental players.  That’s going to make it hard for him to get maximum value for a player like Mike Hoffman so I would suggest they would be wise to hold onto him and look towards moving him near the draft.

Players like Zack Smith and Jean-Gabriel Pageau would be the ones I’d be looking to trade if I was in Dorion’s shoes.  Both are on decent contracts (Smith at $3.25MM through 2020-21, Pageau $3.1MM through 2019-20) but aren’t bargains for what they provide either.  They also happen to be centers which are in short supply but high demand which would help their trade value.  If the Sens are looking to rebuild (and it appears they are), these are the types of players that could be deemed expendable to them and valuable to others.

As for Burrows, although he is having a tough season, I have a hard time thinking he’s going to be bought out.  With only the one year left on his contract, they’d be better off offering to retain 50% of his deal in a trade as that would cost them less than the two-thirds (over two years) they’d be giving him in a buyout.  At $1.25MM, someone would take a chance on Burrows.  The Phaneuf-Gaborik trade showed that money is going to play a big factor in their decision making so the route that costs them the most money (the buyout) probably isn’t the one they’ll want to take.

vegasloveforthebills: What are the Golden Knights going to do? Buy, sell or a little of both?

I think Vegas will be pretty quiet at the trade deadline.  I can see them offering to retain half of Jason Garrison’s deal to give him a chance elsewhere and maybe trying to deal fellow blueliner Griffin Reinhart as well to try to get out of the second year of his contract.  They’re not going to get much for those players, however.

In terms of the NHL roster, I don’t think they’re going to do much.  Their four-line attack has been huge for them so I can’t see them wanting to shake that up and their defense has come along nicely as well.  I can see them looking to add a little depth up front in case of injury (perhaps another waiver claim) and considering the bad luck they’ve had between the pipes, another goalie may not be a bad idea either.  James Neal and David Perron would yield nice returns as rental players but moving those two out would be tough to justify considering where they are in the standings.

The other challenge that has to be considered here is that Vegas simply doesn’t have a full pipeline of prospects to deal from; their reserve list is the shortest in the league.  Teams like Tampa Bay can afford to move a youngster or two because they have a deep prospect pool but the Golden Knights just aren’t in that situation with this only being their first season in the league.

@DAN35NY: When will the Rangers start to sell?

acarneglia: What would trade packages for Nash, McDonagh and Grabner look like?

Again, with both of these being about the Rangers, I’ll lump them together.  I don’t seem to have a great track record predicting what they’d do considering I didn’t expect them to sell at all this year but at the very least, they’ll sell off their rental players in the coming weeks.  I still think players signed beyond this season may be more offseason moves but I can see a scenario where someone pays a premium for Ryan McDonagh.

As for what some trade packages will look like, I don’t believe GM Jeff Gorton will be able to get his asking price for Rick Nash.  Even with 50% retention, his cap hit will be tough to absorb for some teams which will lessen his market.  I expect the centerpiece of a deal for him will be an already-drafted prospect plus a second-round pick and perhaps a roster player to balance out the money.  In Michael Grabner’s case, his contract will be easier for teams to absorb and a second-round pick plus a lesser selection would be my guess of what he will yield in a trade.

Ryan McDonaghThen there’s McDonagh.  I would peg him as the most valuable non-rental player available and since he plays a premium position, he may be the one player where other teams will really be willing to get into a bidding war for as he would be the final piece of the puzzle for some contenders.  The Rangers should be able to command a first-round pick, a top youngster, plus some other piece of value (another pick or roster player).  If they want to move him now, they will get the best package of any player moved at the trade deadline in return.  If not, they will be in line for a similar package at the draft.

goatpowerd: What are the Florida Panthers going to do this year?

The Panthers are a team that I could see both buying and selling over the next week or so.  Despite their run as of late, they’re still probably not going to make the playoffs this season so they will likely look to move their expiring contracts at the very least.  Pending UFA winger Radim Vrbata has already been asked to submit his no-trade list while defenseman Alex Petrovic, who voiced his frustration with his role earlier this season, is also someone who could be on the move.  He still has a year of team control left after this one which should help garner some interest.  Winger Jamie McGinn is someone I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to move as well.

On the other side, Florida still has a strong young nucleus with some quality prospects expected to make an impact in the very near future such as winger Owen Tippett and center Henrik Borgstrom.  However, with their goaltending situation being what it is with an aging Roberto Luongo as the starter, their window to win is still in the near future.  Between that and with several teams making quality players with term available, Florida could very well look to take advantage of that to see if there is a buy-low candidate that makes sense for them for next season and beyond.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

February 15, 2018 at 4:40 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 16 Comments

Just a couple of weeks remain until the NHL trade deadline, when teams are forced to finally make a decision on their future. Will they push their chips to the middle and try to take home the ultimate prize, or sit back and fold this season to try again another day? The trade market hasn’t opened up just yet, but now is your chance to ask our own Brian La Rose when he thinks it will.

Is Ryan McDonagh really going to be moved? What additions will the Boston Bruins make? How many Norris wins is Rasmus Dahlin guaranteed? He has all the answers.

Brian will be answering the mailbag this weekend, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Rangers, Blues, Green, Devils, Islanders

January 21, 2018 at 6:22 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

With the trade deadline now just over a month away, this edition of the PHR Mailbag looks at some of the potential rental players that could be on the move as well as a look at the Blues and several Metropolitan teams.

acarneglia: Do you see the New York Rangers as buyers or sellers at the deadline? If buyers who do they bring in? If sellers who goes?

It’s a cop-out answer but right now, it’s too early to tell.  I suspect GM Jeff Gorton would like to give this core one last kick at the can but with how tight the Metropolitan Division is, we’re simply not going to know if they’re going to be in it until closer to the deadline itself.  This may be a decision that goes down to the last few days before February 26th.

If they were to buy, I don’t think they’d be looking to make the big splash.  They won’t be moving their top prospects and they don’t have a surplus of draft picks to deal from either.  As a result, it won’t be surprising to see them going bargain hunting for a rental bottom-six forward (preferably a center) and some defensive depth.  I don’t believe they’re close enough to being contenders to justify doing much more than that.

On the flip side, things could be interesting if they decide to sell.  Michael Grabner would undoubtedly draw a lot of attention as would Rick Nash (as long as New York retains money or takes a contract back).  Nick Holden isn’t having a great year but some teams should have interest in him.  I wonder about Kevin Hayes as well as someone that’s a non-rental option.  It’s out there that they may not be against doing another core shakeup but unless they go into the tank these next few weeks, that may be more of an offseason deal like they did with Derek Stepan near the draft.  Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello have one year left on their contracts after this and would be players to watch for in that scenario.

Paul Heyman: Will the Blues trade for Mike Hoffman or Max Pacioretty?

We know St. Louis is going to be looking for help on the wing and GM Doug Armstrong said late last month that they’re unlikely to pursue rental players.  (For what it’s worth, I think they should be open to adding pending free agents instead of limiting their options.)  Hoffman and Pacioretty would certainly fit in well and they are the top non-rental wingers that are known to be available.

There are a couple of factors that give me pause in thinking one of them will actually wind up in St. Louis, however.  The first is money.  Payroll room is extremely limited even with Robby Fabbri’s LTIR opening so they will have to come fairly close to matching outgoing contracts.  Carl Gunnarsson ($2.9MM) seems like a logical fit to go but that’s well below what Hoffman (just under $5.2MM) and Pacioretty ($4.5MM) make.  I also don’t get the sense that the Blues are overly open to parting with top prospects and they would likely have to deal one or two based on the current asking prices.

Instead, I think they’re going to look for someone making closer to $3MM that can play a middle-six role.  They’ll get Jaden Schwartz back soon so that should cover filling the current vacancy on the top line.  If the Rangers do wind up selling, I could see Hayes being someone that they look for to fit that bill – he’s unsigned for next season but is a restricted free agent with one more year of team control.  If I had to pick one of your two wingers in terms of who is more likely to go there, I’d say Hoffman simply because he’d cost less to acquire but I wouldn’t put the odds of either of them landing there particularly high.

rowdelicious: Could Detroit land a prospect like Kale Clague or Michael McLeod in a trade for Mike Green?

McLeod is a fairly recent first-rounder while Clague (originally a second-rounder) is probably worth one in a trade now.  So basically, is Green worth the equivalent of a first-round pick?  He’s the best rental defenseman out there but I don’t think his value is quite that high.

Dec 20, 2017; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Detroit Red Wings defenseman Mike Green (25) during the second period against the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY SportsGreen has tailed off a bit as of late offensively with just nine points in the last 24 games (spanning the last two months).  For a player whose calling card is his production and not his play in his own end, that won’t help his value.

First-round picks, even late ones (or prospects of equivalent value), don’t move as often at the deadline anymore with cost-controlled talent becoming much more important by the year.  The odd one will go for a rental but at this point, Buffalo’s Evander Kane is probably the top candidate to fetch either a first or comparable prospect in return.  Guys like Pacioretty and Hoffman will also be higher on the priority list for teams that are willing to move that level of pick or prospect and moving one for one of them would be defensible given the extra year (or two) on their contracts.

Green should be able to fetch a return comparable to what they got for Brendan Smith last year (second and third-rounders), especially if Detroit is willing to retain salary.  I could even see the third-rounder being a conditional second depending on postseason success or him re-signing.  That’s still a strong return but not quite at the first-rounder or similar prospect level.

@doctor_perk: With the Devils dropping six straight and a poor defensive core being exposed, do you see them making a splash for a top-line defenseman by the deadline? #PHRMailbag

Count me among those that thought Sami Vatanen would have more of an impact than he has had thus far.  I thought he was going to go a long way towards helping things out there but it hasn’t happened just yet.  New Jersey’s back end is certainly a weakness and they would be wise to address it again in the next month.

That said, I don’t see them making a splash for a top-pairing player simply because I don’t think there is a top-pairing player that is going to be moved.  Green from Detroit is the best one out there and while he can log heavy minutes, his defensive concerns aren’t really going to fit what the Devils need.  Ottawa’s Dion Phaneuf is a top-four option but that’s a contract that a lot of teams aren’t going to want to touch.

I think they need someone that can stabilize the bottom half of that back end as offensively, between Vatanen, Will Butcher, and Damon Severson (who has produced in the past), they’re not in bad shape.  Fortunately, those types of players are the ones that are going to be available.

I would not be surprised at all if San Jose’s Paul Martin is someone that the Devils will be watching closely as he works his way back into playing shape in the AHL.  He has been a strong defensive player in the past and his postseason experience would be useful on a team that doesn’t have a ton of it.  He’d also help shore up the bottom end of that back end as well as the penalty kill.  They have the cap room to take on the contract without much concern and the asking price shouldn’t be too high.  Beyond that, some of the names from the next question would serve as potential rental options for them to consider.

MrMet19: Who are the most likely targets the Islanders could swing a trade for to help out on defense or in the net?

Between the pipes, the options appear to be pretty limited.  Unlike Chicago where a lot of players could represent upgrades with Corey Crawford out, there aren’t many possible upgrades for the Isles.  Aaron Dell could be one but I don’t think the Sharks will move him which is why I didn’t include him in the options for the Blackhawks either.  Antti Raanta makes a lot of sense and has had success in this division already while he wouldn’t break the bank.  If they want to make a longer-term splash, I wonder if Robin Lehner (Buffalo) could be a fit but the asking price would certainly be higher.  Is he someone that GM Garth Snow would be comfortable giving a long-term deal to in the summer?

Green would give them a nice one-two punch offensively but I think they may prefer more of a defensive-minded player, especially with Calvin de Haan out for the year.  Jack Johnson’s name is out there and unlike New Jersey, the Isles have a young defenseman that they could move in the deal which is something that Columbus is likely seeking.  Ian Cole would fit in as well but I don’t know if Pittsburgh would move him in the division (same with Columbus and Johnson for that matter).  Erik Gudbranson in Vancouver might move and he would give them a different look on their third pairing while killing some penalties.  Martin from the Sharks would fit in on the third pairing as well but do they want to take on the extra year of that contract?

I’ll toss out one other idea as well that also ties in with the question about St. Louis earlier.  They’re likely looking to move Gunnarsson and he would be a small upgrade defensively for New York although he has another year left on his deal.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported earlier this month that center/winger Brock Nelson could be available.  Nelson’s a non-tender candidate based on the season he’s having with his required qualifying offer of $3.5MM in June.  It’s pure speculation on my end but I wonder if there’s a fit there for something involving those two players and because of the option to qualify Nelson, it wouldn’t necessarily be a pure rental situation which is what Armstrong in St. Louis wants to avoid.

Unfortunately, none of these blueliners are going to drastically change their fortunes but there just aren’t a lot of top-four options available even if that’s what they’re seeking.  That’s why I’d prioritize help between the pipes with Raanta in particular.  If he can provide good goaltending (not even great, just good), the Islanders would be in a much better position for the stretch run and that alone might be enough to get them over the top for a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

January 18, 2018 at 5:55 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 11 Comments

I have no doubts that Boston has the pieces to put a strong offer together for Pacioretty.  However, I’m leery that the Canadiens would trade their captain to an archrival, especially since he has another year left on his contract. 

That’s our Brian La Rose answering several questions about the availability of Max Pacioretty and his likelihood of being traded to the Boston Bruins. Our last mailbag featured more than one Bruins-centric question, but we’re looking forward to what you have to ask this week. Will Oliver-Ekman Larsson really be moved? What do the Canadiens do after all their injuries? Are the Golden Knights headed for a Stanley Cup appearance?

Brian will be answering the mailbag on Sunday, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

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PHR Mailbag: Pacioretty, Kane, Hurricanes, Krug, Young Stars

January 7, 2018 at 3:55 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

With the trade deadline now less than two months away, this edition of the PHR Mailbag focuses primarily on some trade scenarios, including Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty.

@dodgerskingsfan: Do the Los Angeles Kings seem like a fit for Max Pacioretty?

Connorsoxfan: Would Boston be able to assemble a good offer for Pacioretty, and is there any chance a trade of that magnitude could happen with BOS-MTL? Would Montreal take Krug and picks?

There are a lot of teams that would be a fit for Pacioretty and both teams have the parts to put together an intriguing package.  I suspect they would only consider dealing him to one of those teams though.

Nov 4, 2017; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Montreal Canadiens left wing Max Pacioretty (67) warms up during the pre-game before a game against the Winnipeg Jets at Bell MTS Centre. Mandatory Credit: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY SportsFirst, let’s look at the Kings.  Their offense has been strong this season (despite Jeff Carter missing most of the year) but Pacioretty would undoubtedly give them a boost.  Adding him and Carter back to the fold around the same time would be a huge boon.  I believe LA would have to build a futures-based package to get him though and I’m not sure Montreal is willing to do that just yet.  I know it was reported earlier in the season that they might consider dealing a defenseman as the season progressed but with their offense being where it is now, the need just isn’t there.  Los Angeles has the cap space to take on his $4.5MM contract without needing to offset any money either which would certainly come in handy.

I have no doubts that Boston has the pieces to put a strong offer together for Pacioretty.  However, I’m leery that the Canadiens would trade their captain to an archrival, especially since he has another year left on his contract.  Montreal’s reported preference is to get a young scorer back so I suspect they would have more interest in building a deal around one (or more) of Boston’s younger forwards than they might in Krug.  That said, there’s no doubt Krug would fill a big void with the Canadiens.

@CarolinaSki: Does Evander Kane have any interest in re-signing before the deadline? And if he is traded what kind of return do you foresee?

I believe Kane is certainly open to the idea of sticking around with the Sabres for the long-term.  He didn’t fit in well in Winnipeg but all indications are that he’s a fit with Buffalo’s other players and that certainly counts for something.  At the same time, it’s hard to say no to seeing what might be out there on the open market.  I don’t think he’d rule out signing an extension beforehand but I’d say the odds of him doing so are fairly low.

As for what they could expect to get for him, GM Jason Botterill has set an asking price that is higher than what teams received for the top rental players over the last couple of years.  While Kane is more of an impact player than Andrew Ladd or Martin Hanzal was at the time of their deals, there will likely be a couple of things working against Buffalo here.  For one, Kane’s reputation around the league isn’t the greatest which could scare off some buyers while the availability of Pacioretty as well as Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman – players signed beyond this season – could lessen the market as well.  I think they should be able to get a first-round pick at the very least plus a second piece (a decent prospect or comparable pick) but I don’t think they’ll be able to top the return that Winnipeg received for Ladd two years ago unless Pacioretty and Hoffman’s trades wait until the offseason.

mikedickinson: Watching Carolina lately, a huge problem is a lack of a big body who will do dirty work in front of an opposing goaltender. Rarely do the Canes screen the goaltender. Who is out there that may be available on the trade market who will help this problem?

Philadelphia winger Wayne Simmonds was involved in trade speculation earlier this season and with the Flyers on the outside looking in at the playoffs, he could possibly be moved if the team doesn’t think they’ll be able to get an extension done with him next offseason.  I think he’d be the perfect fit in Carolina and the Hurricanes have some young pieces that they could part with to meet what would be a high asking price on Philly’s end.  Of course, if the Flyers go on another long winning streak, they could pull him off the block.  Someone like Kane from the Sabres could fit the bill as well as he has a good touch around the net.

In terms of players that aren’t on the radar quite as much, pending UFA winger Patrick Maroon could be one to watch from Edmonton.  If they stay out of the playoff hunt, he is likely to be on the move and would give Carolina that crease presence and a bit of snarl up front as well.  In terms of someone that’s a bit more under the radar, I’d put Panthers winger Jamie McGinn out there.  He has been a deadline pickup with some success a couple of times already and while he’s not a major goal scorer, he can be a presence around the net.  With another year left on his deal at $3.33MM, I doubt the cost to acquire him would be too prohibitive either.

mcase7187: With Adam McQuaid coming back could the B’s look to trade a guy like Torey K with Matt G playing great with Miller and being younger and more controllable?

Jan 31, 2017; Tampa, FL, USA; Boston Bruins defenseman Torey Krug (47) passes the puck against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period at Amalie Arena.Boston Bruins defeats the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3.  Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SportsI wouldn’t be in a rush to trade Torey Krug even though he’d garner a lot of interest around the league as puck-moving top-four blueliners with strong offensive skills don’t become available too often.  For starters, there’s nothing wrong with having depth in case of injury.  If GM Don Sweeney was to turn around and deal Krug without getting a defender back and then someone else on the back end gets hurt, they’d be facing a situation where Paul Postma could be in line for regular minutes and they’d probably have to turn around and try to trade for another depth option without much leverage to work with.

I’d also be hesitant to trade Krug knowing that Zdeno Chara’s days with Boston are nearing an end.  Even if he sticks around for another season, it may not be ideal to move Krug and then lose Chara shortly after that.  That’s a big blow to the left side and even McQuaid’s deal is up a year from now so the depth would become a concern pretty quickly.  Krug and Charlie McAvoy are a pretty good one-two punch offensively from the back end and I wouldn’t be in a rush to break that up, especially just to accommodate McQuaid’s return.

Sox34: What would be your all 22-and-under team?

Boy, this was a tough one to put together.  This is a center-heavy group up front but several of these players have also spent time on the wing at some point in their NHL career.  I didn’t move right wingers to the left side or vice versa though.  I’ve also tried to balance out left and right-hand shots up front although I wasn’t quite able to do so on the back end where there are more prominent lefties than righties.  There is a bit of projection on the roster in terms of leaving off someone perhaps a bit more established in favor of someone who could be the better player over the long-term.  Here’s the roster, including one spare forward, defenseman, and goalie:

LW – Patrik Laine (WPG), Leon Draisaitl (EDM), Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG), Dylan Larkin (DET)
C – Connor McDavid (EDM), Auston Matthews (TOR), Jack Eichel (BUF), Aleksander Barkov (FLA), Mathew Barzal (NYI)
RW – Nathan MacKinnon (COL), David Pastrnak (BOS), Brock Boeser (VAN), Mikko Rantanen (COL)
D – Zach Werenski (CBJ), Aaron Ekblad (FLA), Ivan Provorov (PHI), Charlie McAvoy (BOS), Rasmus Dahlin (2018 Draft Eligible), Mikhail Sergachev (TB), Thomas Chabot (OTT)
G – Tristan Jarry (PIT), Igor Shesterkin (NYR), Ilya Samsonov (WSH)

Just missing the cut: D Jakob Chychrun (ARI), C Bo Horvat (VAN), RW William Nylander (TOR), C Brayden Point (TB), G Juuse Saros (NSH), D Shea Theodore (VGK)

Suffice it to say, there won’t be a shortage of top-end talent in the league anytime soon.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

January 5, 2018 at 1:30 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 20 Comments

2018 is upon us and the NHL is less than two months away from the trade deadline. With that in mind, we’ll run another edition of our #PHRMailbag, with our very own Brian La Rose answering all your questions. Interested in his thoughts on the top rental options? What about the players with several years left on their contracts? Who will be the biggest sellers, and who will add for a postseason run?

Brian will be answering the mailbag on the weekend, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

Make sure to check out our last mailbag, where Brian answered some questions about various superstars that may be on the market in the coming months. He sure didn’t make any new Bruins fans when he wrote “I don’t think [John] Tavares is a great fit in Boston,” but perhaps you can change his mind.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Blues, Flyers, Karlsson, Tavares, Bruins

December 23, 2017 at 2:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

In this edition of the mailbag, several trade scenarios involving some prominent players are discussed as well as a look at the Flyers and their early-season streakiness.

Paul Heyman: Will the Sabres trade Evander Kane? Either that question or will the Blues trade for a top-six center with Schwartz being out?

Let’s tackle the second one first.  St. Louis has very limited cap space to work with when you consider that Jaden Schwartz will be back this season (so the short-term LTIR room isn’t a big factor).  As a result, it’s highly unlikely they’ll make a move for a top-six center in the coming weeks.  As the deadline approaches, I expect them to try to go after a top-six winger but with that limited cap room, they’ll have to get creative and will most likely wait until right before the deadline to limit the amount of money they’re taking on.

As for Kane, there doesn’t seem to be any real discussions regarding an extension at the moment so it’s hard to imagine at this point he won’t be traded.  Unless the Islanders decide to shock everyone and deal John Tavares over the risk of losing him for nothing (more on him a bit later), Kane is going to be the top rental player available and Sabres GM Jason Botterill will want to capitalize on that for sure.  The asking price is already believed to be steeper than that of the top rental players from previous years and they should be able to land that.  I wouldn’t rule out Kane playing for Buffalo next season entirely as he could come back in free agency but he should be traded before the end of February.

kyletaylor2322: How much do you read into the Flyers recent surge after the 10-game losing streak? Just because they did pull some of those games into overtime during that streak, but then last night they looked like a game of NHL2k18 and their controller batteries died.

I wouldn’t read a whole lot into it, at least from the standpoint of them potentially turning things around.  Philadelphia just seems to be a bit of a streaky team; they had the inverse of this happen last season with a 10-game winning streak followed by a five-game losing skid shortly thereafter.

While Brian Elliott is an upgrade between the pipes compared to Steve Mason, he’s still well below the top netminders that the Metropolitan Division has to offer.  They’re integrating several young players into their lineup and while that bodes well for their long-term future (and they have a lot to be excited for there), there are going to be growing pains along the way.  The fact that they’re a top-heavy team up front (their offensive production drops off dramatically after their top-four forwards) also makes them prone to streakiness – they can’t shoulder the load alone for long stretches and the supporting cast is hit-or-miss most nights.

When everything’s firing on all cylinders, the Flyers are a very good team.  However, taking those three factors into account, the only real consistent thing about them is that they’re consistently inconsistent.  That means they’re more prone to these alternating stretches of good play and bad play and at the end of the day, they’re not as good as they are when they’re on a winning streak and they’re not as bad as they are when they go into a tailspin.

acarneglia: Could the Islanders or Rangers pursue a trade for Karlsson?

Erik KarlssonIf the Senators were to consider trading Erik Karlsson this season (and I suspect that won’t happen; they’ll probably wait until the summer to make that call), I think the Islanders are one of the few teams that can really make a realistic push for his services.  They have a surplus of draft picks to work with following the Travis Hamonic trade plus some intriguing younger players that could be of interest to Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion.  Also, what type of message would that send to John Tavares as they try to lock him down on a long-term deal?  The Isles would be a motivated buyer with the pieces to make something work although they would have to send a sizable salary back the other way to fit Karlsson under the cap.

The fit isn’t as good for the Rangers, however.  Their prospect and draft pick pools aren’t as well-stocked as their state counterparts and they have a lot of money committed to their defense for next season already.   I don’t see the Sens being willing to take one of those bigger contracts back either unless it was expiring at the same time and the only one that fits that bill is Ryan McDonagh.  Karlsson alongside Kevin Shattenkirk would certainly make for a very exciting one-two punch from the back end but it’s probably not going to happen.

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austinroundy: Do you think it’s possible the Rangers trade for Tavares in a sign-and-trade deal? Rangers give Rick Nash and Brady Skjei and receive Tavares in a sign and trade.

As a player with an expiring contract himself, Nash won’t carry much in the way of trade value for the Islanders and as much as Skjei is a top-four blueliner, I don’t think he’d be enough in a sign-and-trade scenario.  Those types of trades aren’t that common in the NHL but when they are done, the acquiring team will pay a higher premium than they would if they were picking the player up as a rental and a top-four defender and a top-six winger on an expiring deal probably isn’t enough of a premium to secure the long-term services of a number one center.

The challenge here in this scenario (or any sign-and-trade scenario involving Tavares) is that I don’t think he’s willing to commit to another organization at this time.  The news this week that the Islanders will get their new arena at Belmont Park should at least help the Islanders’ chances of keeping him, despite what Tavares may say publicly.  If he does decide he wants to see what his other options might be, he’d have to wait until the free agent interview period in late June to really be able to do so which basically takes any sign-and-trade option off the table.  Unless Tavares tells the team he’s leaving in the summer before the end of February, it’s hard to imagine they’ll consider trading him.

Connorsoxfan: With the Bruins having such a strong prospect/young player stockpile both on the roster and in the system, do we see any major moves over the offseason? Potentially attaching some to get the Backes deal off the books, or clearing space in other ways and acquiring a star like Tavares or Karlsson via said prospects?

As much as Backes has underwhelmed since joining Boston, I don’t think his contract is that bad to the point where the Bruins would need to attach prospects or picks to move him.  If they do want to free up a bit of money to make a move for a higher-salaried player, I think they could find a way to trade him for someone in the $3MM – $4MM range which they may find preferable to losing a youngster.  If they’re open to offering an incentive to take on a contract, they may want to do that with Matt Beleskey instead if they don’t want to look at a buyout.

I don’t think Tavares is a great fit in Boston.  Patrice Bergeron is still signed for four more years after this one while David Krejci is under contract for three more years at a combined cap hit of over $14MM.  Add $10MM or so for Tavares on a free agent deal and you’re looking at too much money tied up in that position (and that’s assuming Backes is moved elsewhere).

Karlsson makes more sense as someone that can give that back end a big boost while taking a bit of pressure off the likes of Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo.  A blueline featuring Karlsson, McAvoy, Torey Krug, and potentially Zdeno Chara would put some fear into many opponents.  Would Ottawa deal him within the division though?  Some teams are still hesitant to trade star players to a division rival.

I have my doubts that Boston will have a splashy offseason.  GM Don Sweeney appears to be a very patient manager and considering they’re already starting to benefit from the influx of young talent, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s inclined to stay the course and just tinker a little bit (maybe this is the summer that Ryan Spooner moves) over trying to add a top-end player.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

December 22, 2017 at 9:40 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 9 Comments

2018 is almost here and with it will be the countdown to the NHL trade deadline. With teams starting to distance themselves at either end of the playoff race, more and more rumors will surface about rental players and rebuilds. Here’s your chance to ask our very own Brian La Rose about whatever you think your team should do!

Brian will be answering the mailbag on the weekend, but be sure to submit your questions now! Leave a comment below or tweet at @prohockeyrumors using the #PHRMailbag.

Make sure to read our last mailbag, where Brian went in depth on the Kyle Turris–Matt Duchene deal—he knew right away it wasn’t the greatest trade for the Ottawa Senators.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Duchene Deal, Blues, Chayka

November 18, 2017 at 3:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

The three-way trade between the Avalanche, Predators, and Senators made headlines across the league and was a popular topic in this edition of the mailbag, which also features questions about Vegas, St. Louis, and Arizona.

ducksfan: If the Knights make the playoffs what moves do they make at the deadline if any to make sure they don’t hurt their future?

I have to admit, I didn’t expect the Golden Knights to even be in the race at this point, especially with the calamity between the pipes.  If they can hold on to a playoff spot by the trade deadline, it’s really going to change the expected trade landscape as all of a sudden, there will be strong cases for GM George McPhee to hold on to at least some of their prominent rental players.  That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if they still did at least a bit of selling and take the long-term view.  At the very least, they should still be able to sell off some of their defensive depth for some late-round picks or prospects as teams look to shore up their depth chart in case of injury regardless of where they are in the standings.

Assuming they don’t want to move their primary rentals, they have some opportunities to improve their roster without leveraging their future.  They’re projected to have the ability to add more than $35MM in full-season cap hits at the deadline per CapFriendly which gives them the chance to take a cap dump or two while upgrading their roster at the same time.  It also allows them to retain salary to make a deal which would help facilitate a Jason Garrison trade.  I could also see them parting with a player like Brendan Leipsic or Tomas Nosek who are still somewhat young but aren’t likely key cogs over the long haul.  They could maybe dangle one of those for a rental piece to help in their playoff push as well.  It isn’t crazy to think that they could buy and sell to still give themselves some assets for the future while staying in the hunt.

@Raysworld63: How much better is the Predators with Turris? With Bonino back and Ellis returning soon will they make playoffs? #PHRMailbag

Kyle Turris really strengthens Nashville’s depth down the middle while pushing Nick Bonino into a third line spot which is where he’s at his best in more of an exploitative role like he was back in Pittsburgh.  That’s a great spot to be in, especially with Ryan Johansen as their top center (he’s not going to struggle like this all season).

Teams with high-quality center depth and great defense are often contenders for strong postseason pushes.  The Preds find themselves in a playoff spot already without having Ryan Ellis all year, with Johansen struggling to score, and without Turris for all but a few games.  They’re a pretty safe bet to get to the postseason barring a slew of Anaheim-like injuries.

Connorsoxfan: Who won the Duchene/Turris mega deal?

I really like the deal for Nashville.  I touched on them a bit with the last question so I won’t add too much here.  They added a legitimate top-six center on a good contract and while Samuel Girard is going to be a good player, their defensive depth made it so that they could move him.  With that group down the middle, they’re in good shape for a long time.

I also think Colorado made out quite well.  While quantity doesn’t always equal quality, GM Joe Sakic got a good mix of intriguing prospects (Girard already looks like a great fit) and draft picks.  It’s not as if they had any hopes of possibly re-signing Matt Duchene so it made sense to get whatever they could and they sure got a lot.  Not all of the players and picks will pan out but they should land two or three solid pieces at a minimum out of that package and that’s pretty good for a disgruntled player who had been underachieving in recent years.

Nov 16, 2017; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators center Matt Duchene (95) prior to the start of game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY SportsI’m not as bullish about the trade for Ottawa.  They get an extra year of team control with Duchene being signed longer than Turris and it doesn’t sound like Turris signing an extension with the Sens was likely to happen.  However, to give up a player that has similar value, a first-round pick, a player just taken with a first rounder, and a third rounder for that extra year of control seems too steep to me.  Clearly, they’re banking on Duchene having a resurgence now since he’ll be happier in a new environment and that they’ll have a legitimate shot at keeping him when his contract is up.  If those two things happen, Ottawa will come out better in the trade in the end but we’re still a long way from finding out if either will occur.

cardzcrazy: Will Armstrong make a trade to shore up the Blues 3rd line or call someone up? Berglund will help but Kane would be a great fit on the 2nd line and push Sobotka to the 3rd line.

It sounds like Patrik Berglund is getting pretty close to returning and after a career season in 2016-17, they’ll probably slide him into the 3C role and see if he can pick up where he left off.  If he gets going early, it wouldn’t be surprising if he and Vladimir Sobotka eventually flipped places in an effort to give that top-six another scoring option.

Cap space isn’t something St. Louis has much in the way of right now and once Berglund comes off long-term injury reserve, they won’t have much room on that end either, just the salaries of Robby Fabbri and Zach Sanford (with the latter expected to return at some point as well).  As a result, they’re not going to have the money to really make a trade at this time unless they’re sending a similarly-priced player out.  Adding another top-six option will certainly be something that they will want to do but it may have to come closer to the trade deadline where other teams may be more willing to retain salary to facilitate a deal.

Mark Black: What impact does John Chayka’s GM tenure have on teams looking to take a non-traditional approach in the future? And what is one take back move he’d love to have?

It certainly hasn’t been pretty in Arizona lately, especially with their dreadful start to this season.  That said, I don’t think their results under Chayka would have much of an impact around the league at this point.

There’s a major qualifier when it comes to any small-market team and that’s the budget.  Arizona typically has a spending budget right at the minimum salary.  It’s hard to win with that no matter who is running the show.  Take their roster and add two or three impact veterans to it and the outlook on their season probably is a lot different already.  There is a solid core of young players on the Coyotes and Chayka has done some nice moves to leverage their payroll room into getting some other assets.

There has been a rapid shift in analytics in recent years and it’s safe to say that it’s here to stay.  Even if Arizona’s struggles continue for a few years now and Chayka gets let go, there are going to be other teams that will want to try to defy conventional wisdom and go this route.  They’ll claim that their analytics department and proprietary numbers/algorithms will be better and more advanced at that time than Arizona’s is now and considering how far this side of the game has come lately, it will probably be true.

As for which trade he’d like to take back, I’d have to think last summer’s deal with the Rangers for Derek Stepan (and Antti Raanta) for the seventh-overall pick (plus Anthony DeAngelo) would be the one.  That’s the type of trade a team makes when they’re ready to take that big step forward and move towards contention.  Clearly, their young core isn’t far enough along in their development as Chayka believed as they’re just not ready to really push for a playoff spot yet let alone be a contender.  That was a trade that was done a year or two too early.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

November 17, 2017 at 4:40 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 13 Comments

More than a month of the season is over, and the league is full of surprises. The Kings, Golden Knights and Sharks lead the Pacific Division, while the Wild, Oilers and Ducks struggle to even keep their heads above water in the Western Conference. With surprises usually come questions, so we’re back with another mailbag to answer anything you’ve got. You can submit your questions on Twitter using the hashtag #PHRMailbag or by using the comment feature below.

Be sure to check back this weekend when our mailbag is posted. You can check out the last mailbag right here.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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