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PHR Mailbag

PHR Mailbag: Offer Sheets, Sabres, Kane, Blue Jackets, Kings, Fletcher, Predictions

July 30, 2022 at 1:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include offer sheet candidates in Vegas, Buffalo’s offseason, Chuck Fletcher’s future in Philadelphia, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: Any thoughts you’d like to share on the Golden Knights? As a Kraken fan, earlier, I was hoping they’d offer sheet Nicolas Roy, which I’m told is uncommon. Seems like he could be had for a deal. Think any teams are contemplating offer sheeting anyone out there, not just VGK’s?

While there have been a couple in recent years, offer sheets are still indeed quite rare.  In a marketplace where many teams are looking to clear money, it’s hard to think that there are teams that will be willing to place an above-market offer to try to land a restricted free agent.  It doesn’t help that a lot of the teams that have enough cap space (plus their own draft picks) to attempt to go this route are teams that aren’t particularly interested in trying to compete right now and thus are likely disinclined to do an offer sheet that will cost them draft picks.

I think you’re correct in identifying Vegas as a team that’s particularly vulnerable to an offer sheet.  Roy, in particular, is a viable candidate.  His camp clearly knows that as by not filing for salary arbitration earlier this month, he’s still eligible to receive one.  A one-year offer sheet in the second-round pick tier ($4.2MM) might be enough to get him to sign as it would represent a substantial raise from the minimum salary he received the last two years.  Defenseman Nicolas Hague is another player who would be an intriguing offer sheet candidate.

I’m intrigued to see what Vegas is going to do.  They’ll clearly be in LTIR after acquiring the rest of Shea Weber’s contract and Nolan Patrick could wind up there for the season as well with the uncertainty surrounding his future.  Notwithstanding the various mechanics involved with the timing of those placements that can affect the actual cap space, that’d give them around $7.5MM to work with, to use a simple number.  Is that enough for Roy, Hague, Keegan Kolesar, and at least one other forward making the minimum?

If that’s the plan, they’re going to hold out and try to get Hague to take a really cheap one-year deal (he didn’t have arbitration eligibility) and then there might be enough left to commit a medium-term contract to Roy that buys out a UFA year or two.  But even with that, they’ll be ‘creative’ with their LTIR usage all season long.  If nothing else, they’re clearly used to navigating that situation.

sabres3277: Do you think the Sabres did enough in free agency or should they be interested in Nino Niederreiter to add some grit and physicality to the forward position?? Or maybe get involved in making a trade for some more forward help while not bankrupting the future??

Let’s look at Buffalo’s free agent additions since the market opened up.  Eric Comrie came over to be a platoon partner with Craig Anderson in goal and they added Ilya Lyubushkin to add some grit and physicality on the back end.  (Niederreiter signed in Nashville not long after this question was posed.)  That’s a pretty small list of additions.

Allow me to pose a question back for a moment – what is Buffalo’s goal this season?  Their actions (or lack thereof) tell me that it’s not time to flip the switch to try to win.  What they did was shield their youngsters – Comrie’s addition allows Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to go back to AHL Rochester and Lyubushkin gives a bit of protection to a back end whose next-oldest player is Jacob Bryson who’s only 24.

In that spirit, yes, they did enough in free agency.  What little they did was for their youngsters and they’re going to try to continue to develop their young core.  That’s basically all they really needed to do so I think GM Kevyn Adams did enough by not doing much of anything.

That said, I have no issues with them adding a forward in the right scenario.  So many teams are looking to clear up cap space and teams with that space can leverage future assets for taking that deal on.  If there’s an expiring contract that a team needs to shed and that team is willing to part with a draft pick and/or prospect to make that happen, Buffalo would be wise to jump on that.  There will be injuries and some youngsters will struggle so another forward certainly wouldn’t hurt and if that forward can be flipped with retention at the deadline for more future assets, even better.

That’s the type of trade to make for them right now, not one that requires moving future assets away.  There will come a time for that type of move (I’m thinking a couple of seasons from now for them to start that transition) but it’s not yet.

@Joebad34TD: What is the current rumor on Patrick Kane’s trade destination, and is Buffalo a potential team of interest for both parties?

The latest on Kane is that there’s a report that Chicago is listening to offers and a report that they’re not listening to offers.  Admittedly, that’s not a lot to run with here but the uncertainty is an accurate depiction of where things stand.  At this point, his camp hasn’t approached the team about a trade and the Blackhawks have already said they won’t go to him to try to move him.

At this point, I think just about everyone thinks that will change at some point.  Chicago appears to have no interest in trying to compete next season (or for a few years) and that’s unlikely to appeal to Kane at this stage of his career.  In all likelihood, his thoughts are probably similar to that of Jonathan Toews’ opinions which were voiced earlier this week.

As we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s hard to move money and Kane has a cap hit of $10.5MM.  That’s a lot of money.  At the trade deadline in February, three-quarters (give or take) will be paid which is a lot easier for contenders to absorb, particularly if the Blackhawks are willing to retain on the contract to facilitate a trade.  Whoever is a playoff contender and has some needed cap flexibility will be the ones to watch for at that time.

Buffalo clearly isn’t a playoff contender so they have no reason to trade for Kane.  Yes, he’s from there and they’ll probably kick tires on him in free agency but a team that’s expected to not be all that close to the postseason chase shouldn’t be gearing up to try to acquire what likely will be the top rental player available at the deadline.  Unless there was a guarantee that acquiring him early would result in an extension, don’t expect to see them linked to Kane next season.

baji kimran: If Columbus offered Arizona Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier, Gustav Nyquist, and two #1 draft picks for Jakob Chychrun, would that be enough to get a deal done? The point is the Jackets are trying to acquire Chychrun and free up cap space to sign Laine If not, what do you think would be acceptable to the Coyotes? Also, how long will Johnny Gaudreau have to appear on podcasts and apologize for signing with the Blue Jackets?

Clearly, the scenario has now changed since the question was posted with Patrik Laine re-signing and Oliver Bjorkstrand being the cap casualty but that’s an offer that I think Arizona would give serious consideration to.  Bean is a little too far removed from being a first-rounder to automatically be one of the three first-round elements they’ve been believed to be seeking but two firsts is a strong start while Bean and Texier are youngsters that could be around for a while and should more than offset taking on the rest of Nyquist’s deal.  Such a move probably isn’t happening now but there’s a framework for a deal that might be enough to meet Arizona’s high asking price.

As for Gaudreau, I hope the public appearance tour has come to an end.  No matter how much he tries to smooth things over, it’s not going to make any sort of difference for most Calgary fans.  He informed them less than 24 hours before the start of free agency that he wouldn’t re-sign, preventing the Flames from getting anything in return for him.  Even if he had signed closer to home in New Jersey, there would have been resentment with that decision.  Now, compare what happened to what Matthew Tkachuk did (which happened after this question was posed), that’s going to paint Gaudreau in an even more negative light.

He decided to leave Calgary which was his right having qualified for unrestricted free agency.  But fans of the Flames aren’t going to simply shrug their shoulders and go ‘Oh well, it was fun while it lasted’.  No, they’re going to be upset, understandably so, no matter what Gaudreau says publicly.  The sooner he realizes that, the better.

bigalval: How would you grade the Kings’ offseason? I think they have done a great job and Kopitar’s contract has two years left and Quick has one year left so it will free up some more money thoughts?

Johnny Z: To add to this: what LD will they pursue?

I’d have their summer in the B/B- range.  I don’t mind the Kevin Fiala trade but I don’t like the contract.  He has one season with more than 25 goals and 55 points under his belt.  They’re paying him like he’ll be a 75-point player for the duration of that deal.  I don’t think he will produce at that level consistently in a lesser offensive environment.

Adrian Kempe’s contract was going to be painful thanks to his platform season but $5.5MM for a player who, until 2021-22, produced at the level of a third-liner, is risky, to put it lightly.  Is he a 35-goal player moving forward?  Probably not.  Is he a 25-goal forward?  Even that I’d be hesitant to agree on.

These contracts basically took them out of the market of trying to add a left defenseman.  They barely could afford to bring Alex Edler back and will have to pursue one-year deals with Michael Anderson and Sean Durzi to stay cap-compliant.  Sure, they’re better with the addition of Fiala but they still have a back end that thins out fairly quickly.

Yes, there is some cap flexibility on the horizon with their expiring contracts but a good chunk of that will be eaten up as their younger core comes off their entry-level deals.  They’re not going to be in cap trouble but for as close as they’re going to get this year, I thought they’d have tried to shore up more than just finding an improvement on Dustin Brown.  It’s not a bad offseason and they’ll be in the playoff race hence the grade in the B range but I don’t think they got enough accomplished for the cap space they had two months ago.

DonnieBaseBallHOFer: Please make Fletcher’s moves (or rather lack thereof) make sense…Give a 50+ year fan some glimmer of hope?

Feels like the whole next season is just built on Ifs…if this guy comes back, if Torts can turn things around…Please tell me there is more of a plan than this?

EMoney123: When do the Flyers cut Chuck Fletcher loose considering salary cap, poor roster construction, and the poor PR of not signing Gaudreau?

The lack of moves actually makes some sense to me.  From his standpoint, his team on paper should have been better last season.  Frankly, I don’t disagree with that; they should have been better than what they were.  Where we disagree is on whether this roster is good enough to contend when everyone is healthy.  I’m not as confident in that as Fletcher seems to be.

I even understand the lack of movement.  We’ve seen the cost of moving money this summer.  It’s not pretty.  Would it have been justifiable to part with a high pick or top prospect (or a combination of picks and prospects) to clear James van Riemsdyk off the books?  As a non-playoff team, probably not.  One could quibble about adding Anthony DeAngelo on that contract but with Ryan Ellis’ availability appearing to be in question again, I can’t fault the logic of looking for insurance although if everyone is healthy, that’s a very pricey back end.  That’d be a good problem for them to have at this point.

There are a lot of ifs with this team and if they hit on most of them, they can be in the Wild Card mix.  They didn’t hire John Tortorella for his long-term coaching acumen; he’s someone that has a shorter-term shelf life with an expectation of short-term success.  The boost from him, the return to health of some key players, and a bounce-back year from Carter Hart and voila, that’s the plan to return to being in the playoff battle.

As for Fletcher’s future, I’m always hesitant to publicly speculate on people losing their jobs.  That said, I think he is running out of moves to make if things don’t go as planned again.  He has played the coaching change card and with how tough it is to move contracts this summer, the roster basically is what it is and most of it (with van Riemsdyk being a notable exception) are players that he has brought in or signed to their current deals.  This is his team, for better or for worse.  If this doesn’t work, ownership will have to consider if Fletcher is the right one to make the necessary connections and with the way last season went, there may not be much of a leash left for him.

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The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing Crystal Ball, which team sweaters will the following players be wearing at puck-drop in October (please note after the trade deadline, if appropriate): Scheifele, Zadina, Tarasenko, Barrie, and Gibson?

I can’t quite tell if the crystal ball is just on a long summer break and just taking the easy answer or not but the response it gives me is that all of those players are staying with their current teams for a while.

Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg is facing a situation where Pierre-Luc Dubois doesn’t seem likely to stay with them long-term.  Knowing that, they’re not really in a spot where they can afford to move Scheifele.

Filip Zadina – Earlier this summer, I’d have thought he was a viable trade candidate.  But at this point, a lot of the roster shuffling has been done and they’re not going to get top value for him.  The prudent move now is to see how he fares under new head coach Derek Lalonde and it will be another sizable evaluation period.

Vladimir Tarasenko – I’d be surprised if he’s in a St. Louis uniform in October 2023 but the Blues are under no obligation to trade him and clearly, they showed they can make things work even with a trade request.  They’re trying to win now and that’s a task that’s a lot harder without him than with him.

Tyson Barrie – If there’s someone on this list that could move by October, it’s Barrie.  Edmonton needs to free up cap space but I don’t think they want to move Barrie, even with Evan Bouchard in place to take on a bigger role.  Moving him would really thin out their back end though (and it’s already not the deepest) which is why I think their preference would be to trim from the forward group and keep Barrie to start the season.

John Gibson – He has no interest in leaving Anaheim and teams aren’t able to take on a $6.4MM AAV for the next half-decade.  There will come a time where a trade might be feasible but that probably won’t be in 2022-23.

jawman74: How do you see the East shaking out next year with Detroit, Ottawa, and Columbus all stocking up this offseason, Washington still able to compete, Boston and the Islanders hoping for a last hurrah with their cores, and the contenders all staying contenders?

It’s still a bit early for these types of predictions as I think there’s another domino or two to drop before the season gets underway in October.  But with the look of the rosters as they currently stand, here’s how I could see things going.

Atlantic Division: Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Florida have taken some hits to their roster but all three should be in the playoffs next season.  Ottawa has made two big additions up front and those additions plus their young core should be enough to get them in as well.  Boston’s injuries might dig them too deep of a hole to get out of and while Detroit has made some nice additions, I think they come up a little short as things stand.  Buffalo and Montreal are clearly out of the mix already.

Metropolitan Division: Pittsburgh is old but they’re good enough to be in the thick of things.  The Rangers are certainly in the mix as well and while Carolina has lost some good pieces, they’ve also added some good ones and should be in there as well.  I’m a little leery with Washington and their injuries but that core can’t be counted out; they’ll be in the Wild Card mix.  I don’t think Columbus and New Jersey have done enough to get in yet and Philadelphia would need a lot to go right to get there.  That leaves the Islanders.  Right now, I don’t think they’re a playoff team but I do think they have a move of note coming that could still change things for them.  The parity of this division is certainly impressive though.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

4 comments

PHR Mailbag: Maple Leafs, Red Wings, Dubois, Ducks, Canadiens, Offseason Winners, Subban

July 24, 2022 at 6:52 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 14 Comments

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Toronto’s goaltending situation, discussion on whether or not Detroit should have another move in them this summer, early offseason winners, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

lapcheung39: If the Murray/Samsonov experiment fails, do you see the Leafs trading for a goalie who is capable to handle the load?

I don’t see that happening.  To this point, GM Kyle Dubas has shown an inability or an unwillingness to commit to any long-term goaltending solution.  There are no real trade options that meet all of the following criteria – a clear and proven upgrade on both netminders, affordable on the cap, being on a team that’s likely to sell at the trade deadline, and on a short-term contract (since they want to keep flexibility for when the contracts for their core forwards expire).  Unless one of those somehow becomes available, Toronto won’t really have an opportunity to upgrade during the season.

I’m not as down on Toronto’s goaltending moves as some are.  Knowing the need for affordability and flexibility, their options were going to be limited.  While there’s certainly a risk of this blowing up, there is definitely an upside play as well.  If one of Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov shows that he can live up to the promise of just a couple of years ago, the Maple Leafs will have a good goalie on their hands.  Good isn’t great but considering the limited amount they’re able to commit to the position, good will have to be good enough.

gowings2008: Yzerman obviously added some nice pieces to the Red Wings in the past couple of weeks, but they still lack that true star up front. I think Raymond could develop into that, but is there a chance they maybe trade for that type of player? Maybe a Barzal or Tkachuk, for example, as they both fit the core age group.

Johnny Z: I still see at least one more move this summer for Stevie Y. Would it be taking on a bad contract with a huge sweetener, or signing one of the 2 top FA’s left and then clearing out someone in that roster spot, or bidding for a Matthew Tkachuk or a Chychrun…What say, you oh Swami?

What’s the old saying, you have to learn to crawl before you can walk and walk before you can run?  That’s what comes to mind when I think of Detroit.  Their offseason signings thus far look like GM Steve Yzerman saying the time has come to try to get back to a playoff spot and get their young core some postseason experience.  Their rebuild has been a crawl (a long crawl, at that) and getting to the playoffs is the learning to walk part.  It’s hard to skip that stage and go right to running (becoming a year-in, year-out contender).

Could they trade for that player?  Absolutely.  Will that trade come this summer?  I’d be surprised if it did.  If I’m Yzerman, I want to see how their young core handles their first taste of a playoff push and perhaps a series or two to help determine what type of star player they need.  It’s hard to make that determination now.

If they want to get in on the bidding for the top free agents, that’s another thing.  (I still could see John Klingberg fitting there, even with Moritz Seider and Filip Hronek.)  If you can get a core piece for free without having to trade for it, that’s great.  But I don’t think the time is right for them to make the type of franchise-altering splash on the trade front.  And if they want to take on a pricey expiring contract with a sweetener, that wouldn’t be the worst outcome either as long as they keep enough cap space to build enough in-season room to add at the trade deadline.

W H Twittle: What realistic options do the Jets have with Pierre-Luc Dubois? Should they offer 8M$×7 or something similar to see whether it really is “Habs or nothing” for Dubois? Or should they focus on trading him? And which teams could be interested in Dubois for possibly only two years?

I’ve been intrigued with the Dubois situation and the fact he accepted his qualifying offer at $6MM is curious.  If that was the plan all along, he could have just filed for arbitration and likely got more money.  Was not filing a leverage play that went wrong?  If Dubois hopes this route helps facilitate a trade to Montreal, I’m not sure it does.  All things equal, the Canadiens probably would have preferred a long-term deal that had two RFA years in it to knock a few hundred thousand off the AAV of a max-term agreement instead of one which is the best they (or any other team) can do now.

I think it also needs to be noted that there’s an important word missing from the various leaks saying Dubois wants to play in Montreal.  The word that’s missing is ‘only’.  At no point has it been definitively been said that he only wants to play in Montreal.  Is that his preference?  It sure seems like it.  But it’s not a Montreal or bust scenario.  At least, that’s not what his camp is indicating.

What does appear to be clear is that his long-term future isn’t with the Jets.  That means the options are to trade him now, trade him midseason, or trade him next summer.  Dubois accepting the qualifying offer makes the second option much more plausible.  If they try to move him at the deadline, there’s a lot less salary remaining for a team to take on plus the potential for retention is higher (unless Winnipeg is in the thick of the playoff hunt in which case trading him next summer becomes the likely scenario).  A trade deadline move would have several contenders interested and ready to pay a sizable return.  Even if a long-term agreement isn’t guaranteed, two playoff runs and a chance to try to extend him is still worth quite a bit.  They’re still in good shape to get a good return.

The trade deadline scenario makes it hard to peg teams as we don’t know who all will be in the mix yet and, more importantly, who will have cap space to do it.  But if you want a wild card team for a trade this summer?  I’d say Colorado.  If Nazem Kadri doesn’t re-sign, could the Avs flip someone like Samuel Girard (a young top-four blueliner signed for five more years) and J.T. Compher to get a two-year improvement down the middle and potentially even an insurance policy if they can’t get Nathan MacKinnon signed for some reason?  (That’s not a precise trade proposal, by the way, just a general thought.)  I could see that being a Plan B for them or any other team that wants but doesn’t get Kadri.

JustPete: The new Ducks GM recently said that he’s not done and that they are looking to add a forward and a defenseman. The Ducks are also below the minimum cap level. It sounds to me that he is looking to pick off some solid players from teams that are over the cap and must shed some contracts. If true, who are the most logical teams/players in your view? Thanks.

Their lack of activity this summer tells me they’re not looking to win now.  That makes them a prime candidate for this type of move although they’d be looking for future assets, not necessarily solid players.  In other words, they’ll take on an overpriced expiring or short-term contract if they’re properly incentivized; they don’t have to be looking for impact players at this point.  That gives them a lot of options right now.

Off the top of my head, Patric Hornqvist (Florida), Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson (Vancouver), Jason Zucker (Pittsburgh), Warren Foegele (Edmonton), Scandella (St. Louis), and Jonathan Drouin (Montreal) stand out as options as players that are on short-term deals (one or two years each) and could provide some utility to them while they’d still likely be able to pick up a future asset or two.  A player or two off that shortlist could be possibilities.

There’s also the ability to facilitate a Kadri or Klingberg signing or a trade if a team needs to free up money.  Those are harder to peg down in terms of which contract(s) could go but there should be an opportunity to get involved on that front as well.

big boi: Do you see the Habs trying to move Price and Gallagher’s contracts in the near future? If so, how?

Carey Price is coming off a season that saw him play in five games, several of which he didn’t play all that well in.  He then admitted that if his knee doesn’t get any better, he doesn’t see how he could play again.  That’s not the profile of a goaltender that has any trade value before factoring in that he’s the highest-paid goalie in NHL history and has four years left on his contract.  I simply don’t see a team wanting to offer anything for him, even those who are trying to get creative with LTIR space.  And while the Canadiens likely need to trim money, they’re not going to part with multiple high picks and prospects to move Price at a time when they’re firmly in a rebuild.  Nothing happens trade-wise on his front for a while, if it ever happens at all.

As for Brendan Gallagher, what’s the market for a player coming off a seven-goal season?  Not very good.  Then you add in the five years left on his contract at $6.5MM per.  That changes his market value from not very good to non-existent.  Similar to Price, it’s a contract that would require retention and/or future assets to move.  They shouldn’t be doing that with where they are in the rebuilding process.

There are easier contracts to move.  They have several veterans on expiring contracts that could be flipped for someone making a little less to free up cap flexibility or they could look to move someone like Drouin, Joel Armia, or Mike Hoffman, either taking a cheaper player back or with a smaller incentive than it’d take to get out of Price and Gallagher’s contracts.  Those are much more plausible moves for Montreal to make.

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@Banksy56: Team that’s had the best offseason so far?

Right now, strictly looking at the on-ice situation, I’d say Ottawa.  Alex DeBrincat is a legitimate top-line winger that immediately bolsters their top line.  Claude Giroux is on the downswing of his career and the third year of his deal might be a bit iffy but he’s not too far removed from being a top-line player himself.  The Sens don’t need him to be that, however; instead, he can help anchor a second line.  Their returning players now allow them to run three solid scoring lines.

On top of that, they got Joshua Norris locked up on a max-term contract and some more stability between the pipes with Cam Talbot replacing Murray.  And after all of that, they still have enough cap room to try to upgrade the back end.  They’ve had cap space for a long time and they’re using it to their advantage now.  This team is much-improved and should have a good chance of pushing for a playoff spot which is huge for their young core from a development perspective.  I’m intrigued to see how this all works long-term (DeBrincat needs a pricey deal this summer as does Tim Stutzle) but they’ve had a very good last few weeks.

Columbus is another team that comes to mind by landing Johnny Gaudreau and being able to get a four-year deal done with Patrik Laine.  That’s two star players locked up for the next four years to go with their young core.  But losing Oliver Bjorkstrand for a middling return stings, especially since it’s in part due to the terrible contract given to Erik Gudbranson.  That’s enough to take them out of the top spot for the best offseason in my books.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Where does P.K. Subban end up and with what type of deal?

At the beginning of free agency, I thought Toronto was where he’d land on a one-year deal around $2MM or so where he could slot into the vacancy opened up by the departure of Ilya Lyubushkin.  They don’t look like as good of a fit now with them opting for cheaper depth defenders in Victor Mete and Jordie Benn and likely having to move out a veteran simply to re-sign RFA Rasmus Sandin.  So, let’s take them off the table for now.

Anaheim is a team that needs to add money and they have openings to fill on their back end.  As far as a soft landing goes, a possible top-four role in California looks like a pretty good one.  If Edmonton moves Tyson Barrie to free up cap space, Subban could fit as a lower-cost replacement.  But I like Anaheim right now on a one-year deal in the $1.5MM or so range with an eye on flipping him at the trade deadline if they’re out of the playoff picture.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

14 comments

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

July 22, 2022 at 3:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 24 Comments

It has been an eventful few weeks around the NHL, to say the least.  The draft has come and gone with several surprises, free agency has resulted in many players finding new homes, and there have been some significant trades along the way as well.  With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Last time, the mailbag was broken up into three parts.  Topics in the first included the recent increase of creative usage of LTIR and Matt Murray being linked to Toronto, the second was a Red Wings-specific column, and the third included discussion about the Bruins’ offseason and possible trade targets for the Coyotes.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Wild, Bruins, Devils’ Draft Pick, DeBrincat, Predators, Hockey Trades, Rangers, Coyotes, Forsberg

June 26, 2022 at 6:46 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 9 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Boston’s offseason, discussing which route is the best to take for Nashville, candidates for ‘hockey’ trades, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in either last weekend’s mailbag or Saturday’s Detroit-specific column.

Zakis: Who will be the Wild’s primary goalie for the ’22-’23 season?

I’m going to say Cam Talbot.  While their Plan A is to re-sign Marc-Andre Fleury, with everything else they have to navigate this summer, I’m leery that they’ll be able to do so unless Fleury takes below his market value to stay there.  I expect Minnesota will have to be a bit more frugal while looking for their second netminder.  While they’re probably not going to wind up with a low-end, cheap second-stringer, I have a hard time thinking that second goalie will play more than Talbot, barring injury.

Assuming that happens, Talbot should check in around 50-55 starts, a mark he’d have reached this season had it not been for Fleury’s acquisition back at the trade deadline.  Getting that many starts will be important for him as well since the 34-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent in the 2023 offseason and playing a number one workload would certainly help his cause next summer on the open market.

Nha Trang: I’d ask “What the hell were the Bruins thinking?” except that everyone in hockey knows the answer.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Thoughts on Sweeney being canned and ending up in Vegas?

BOSsports21: Piggybacking off a couple B’s questions already – the Bruins need a teardown and rebuild. It’s not something B’s fans want to hear, but they have only a couple of good prospects and no cap room. They weren’t really a Cup contender this past year and now they want to bring in a younger coach. If you’re the GM, do you sell off as much as you can to obtain assets? I feel Pastrnak and Marchand will not be the same without Bergeron if he retires. Even if he comes back, it’ll probably only be for a year. Might as well get good value for Pastrnak and Marchand to re-stock the bare cupboard. Thoughts?

Let’s put some Boston questions together.  GM Don Sweeney’s decision to part ways with Bruce Cassidy certainly raised some eyebrows and the fact that several teams immediately pursued him indicates that his perception around the league is much more positive than it was in Boston’s front office.  Obviously, they felt the playoff underperformance was cause for concern and there has been plenty of speculation about other factors but that’s simply speculation.

There’s a good chance that whoever Sweeney hires will be his last hire as Boston’s head coach.  He’s one of the longer-tenured general managers in the league but most are only able to make a couple of coaching changes before they’re heading out the door.  As for joining Vegas when that happens, never say never, even with what I suspect was a sarcastic question.  Vegas isn’t exactly known for patience in the early going and if they struggle over the next year or two, there could be front office changes following soon after.

Boston has operated as a team that isn’t likely to rebuild, especially with the moves they’ve made in the last few years.  They don’t give Taylor Hall a four-year deal and then acquire and extend Hampus Lindholm with an eye on rebuilding.  With the injuries they’ll be dealing with to start next season, a short-term step back was at least justifiable.  But with Patrice Bergeron now expected to return, that idea goes out the window; he’s not coming back to help ease the team through a short-term teardown.  That takes the idea of potentially trading Pastrnak and Marchand (the latter of which was probably unlikely to happen anyway) off the table.

W H Twittle: If so, could a trade be built on the basis of Pastrnak for NJ’s 2022 #2 draft pick? Obviously, NJ would need to add a couple of A pieces… that may include their 2023 1st round pick and an A prospect?

Let’s get another Boston one in here.  No, I don’t believe David Pastrnak for that second selection is a viable option for either side.  But as I just noted, the Bruins aren’t bringing Bergeron back to then turn around and start selling off key players.  If that was the route they were taking, Bergeron would be hanging up his skates.  If things don’t go well during the season, that could very well change closer to the trade deadline but this type of trade certainly won’t be on the table at that time.

Moving that second pick (and potentially other assets) for Pastrnak makes little sense for the Devils either.  If they’re going to move a premium draft pick, it will be for someone in the prime of their career that has several years of team control left (either through being under contract or club control).  They’re not moving that pick for a rental player that still probably doesn’t get them into the playoffs next season.  And if I’m Pastrnak, with all due respect to New Jersey, I’m not passing up a chance at testing the market to sign a long-term contract with them.

I think people are getting a little too hyped up about the idea of New Jersey moving this draft pick.  They’re not shopping the it, they’re simply listening to offers and coming up with a list of players that could make sense to trade for that fit their parameters.  Those parameters would involve club control and long-term salary cap planning, among other elements.  I don’t think there would be more than four or five players league-wide on that list.  Of those, how many will actually be available to move?  Maybe two?  If GM Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t get the perfect (and I mean perfect, not a ‘close enough’ scenario) offer, they’ll happily keep that pick.  There are more ways to get an impact player than by trading a high lottery selection.

Johnny Z: Some have the Flyers being interested in acquiring DeBrincat, what would that look like?

While I, like many, expect Philadelphia to shake things up in terms of their core forwards, I don’t think it’d be for Alex DeBrincat.  He’s under the old rule for qualifying offers so he’ll be owed a minimum of $9MM for his qualifier in 2023 although if he has another year like this one, he’ll be getting more than that.  That’s going to be tough to fit into their salary structure.

Then there’s the acquisition cost.  Chicago would undoubtedly want the fifth-overall pick and with the situation the Flyers are in, moving that pick wouldn’t be wise.  That’s their chance to get an impact, cost-controllable player to work into the lineup a couple of years from now to help offset some of their more bloated veteran deals.  I know they’re in win-now mode, but moving that pick isn’t a good idea.

There needs to be a cap element to the deal to help offset DeBrincat’s current $6.4MM AAV.  That could be James van Riemsdyk but if the Blackhawks don’t want to take that contract back, Oskar Lindblom’s $3MM deal could be an option.  Another first-round pick (their own in 2023) would need to be in there.  I could see Chicago asking about someone like Morgan Frost or Owen Tippett, former first-rounders that haven’t lit it up just yet.  There would probably be another prospect in there as well.  That’s a big package for a non-playoff team to pay, especially since DeBrincat alone probably doesn’t get them back to the playoffs.

If I’m GM Chuck Fletcher, I’d rather pay a quality pick or prospect to offload van Riemsdyk’s deal without taking money back and then take a serious run at Johnny Gaudreau in free agency.  If they did that and Gaudreau agreed to sign, they’d get a top-line winger without giving up a lot of their cost-controllable future.  But if I was Fletcher, I wouldn’t have made the Rasmus Ristolainen trade last summer either so even if I don’t think it’s a good idea, he might be thinking differently.

GBear: It’s July and Gbear has won the lottery and bought the Preds and fired David Poile. I’m bringing in Brian La Rose to interview for the vacant GM position. What moves would you make this offseason and who are you taking with the #17 pick of the draft? :)

Congrats on the big lottery win that allows you to swoop in and outbid Bill Haslam for the team.  Before I can answer though, my question to you is what’s my mandate?  Do I have the ability to do what I think is best or do you want some playoff revenue?  The two options aren’t the same.

Assuming you give me the ability to tear it down, that’s what I’d be looking to do.  I don’t think adding a piece or two to this core is going to vault them into contender status.  The Predators can keep treading water or they can take a step back and try to reload.  I’d look to leverage Matt Duchene’s season as a way to get out of his contract and take a cheaper one back.  That scenario was far-fetched last summer but a 43-goal season changes things.  Someone’s going to be desperate for a center later in the offseason and there’s an opportunity to strike.  I don’t see that being feasible for Ryan Johansen though.

I wouldn’t re-sign Filip Forsberg in that scenario and instead would use the cap space to take on a player from somewhere else, adding picks or prospects for doing so as Arizona has done recently.  Ideally, said player then would be flipped with retention at the deadline for another pick or prospect.  I’d make Mattias Ekholm available and try to leverage the lack of impact left-shot defenders available in free agency into a significant futures-based return.  With teams looking for a starting goalie, Juuse Saros could be had for a significant return; I’d be comfortable with some veteran buffers for a couple of years until Yaroslav Askarov is NHL-ready.  I’d aim for a two-year or three-year retooling so Roman Josi would stick around.  I’d want to see more minutes for Tanner Jeannot, Philip Tomasino, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier to see if they’re part of the long-term plans so any cap dumps I’d pick up would be for lower roles on the roster.  Philippe Myers gets flipped for whatever the best offer is with the acquiring team getting a cap credit (a move that should be made in both win-now and sell-now scenarios).  Since this answer can’t go on forever, that’s a very quick overview of what my plan would be.

Now, if you’re telling me you want early playoff revenues, then it’s a much different approach.  Filip Forsberg gets his eight years around $8MM.  I’d target Vegas to try to add Nicolas Roy, giving the Preds a third center with some upside.  He’s a strong offer sheet target with their cap situation so this could be a chance to add to the position without the return being super high.  Andre Burakovsky would be a target to add on the wing to provide a two-way element while still boosting the scoring potential of the second line, shifting some of those younger players onto the third line to really balance out the attack.

On defense, I’d like someone like Josh Manson to shore up the back end but so would a lot of other teams.  I’d go into the upper $4MM range for his services which might not be enough to get it done.  Ideally, a physical shutdown defender that can take some pressure off the younger players and deepen the back end is the target.

The only reason there’s enough cap space to do all of this is the goaltending.  I’d use Connor Ingram as the backup for Saros over.  I think he has legitimate NHL upside and sneaking him through waivers isn’t going to happen.  His $758K cap hit provides some extra cap flexibility to upgrade an extra spot on the roster and I’d rather put money towards an every-game player over someone who probably is only going to play 20-25 times since there isn’t a big difference between Ingram and a $2MM to $3MM backup.  Those additions should be enough to keep the Preds in the playoff hunt for the next couple of years and perhaps even win a round and from there, you never know what can happen.

It’s hard to forecast who’s going to be available with the 17th pick but someone like Denton Mateychuk fits as someone in that range.  He’s a bit undersized but is a good offensive defenseman and adding someone to take some pressure off Josi when he slows down would help.  A center would be preferable though given the state of their prospect pool so Marco Kasper would also be high on my list.  He hasn’t looked out of place in the SHL and there’s a good defensive floor to work with.  I think there’s second-line upside with the offensive and a two-way top-six center would be a nice addition in the middle of the first round.

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Detroit_SP: Which player with the highest AAV / GAR / WAR do you think gets traded this offseason in a NON-cap dump move? Or in another form, which player most towards the upper echelon of players gets moved in a “hockey trade”?

In an offseason that promises to be filled with trades made for cap-related reasons more than anything, this is an interesting question.  It’s also a hard one to quantify.  For example, St. Louis could move Vladimir Tarasenko and his $7.5MM cap hit this summer.  He’s talented enough that it’s not a pure cap dump but I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a cap-related element to the deal as well as how they spend whatever cap savings they get will be a significant part of the move.  So would he qualify under that non-cap dump restriction?  Probably not.

One forward that does come to mind is Travis Konecny.  He has three years left at $5.5MM and Philadelphia seems likely to want to shake up their core.  I could see him being flipped for another top-six winger at a similar price tag with an eye on finding someone that might be a better fit for John Tortorella’s system.  Talent for talent so that would qualify as a ‘hockey trade’.

If you want a wild card, let’s say Pierre-Luc Dubois whose AAV we don’t know yet as he hasn’t signed.  With him informing the Jets that his intention is to test the UFA market two years from now, their willingness to move him should go up.  It wouldn’t be for cap reasons and they’d be targeting a similar center with the hopes of getting that player to stay long-term.  In other words, a deal similar to the one that brought Dubois to Winnipeg in the first place.  That would qualify as a hockey deal as well.

There will be more prominent and more expensive players on the move but those ones will have cap-related elements to those trades.  If you’re looking for a true hockey trade with impact players, you’ll probably have to set your sights a little lower with something in this tier.

met man: Now that the Rangers have been eliminated, what do you think is the first thing that they address?

I expect GM Chris Drury’s priority will be to try to sort out their center situation.  Managing to re-sign one of Andrew Copp or Ryan Strome makes their summer activity so much easier.  If that happens, a one-two punch of Mika Zibanejad and whichever one signs would give them a lot more stability in terms of navigating the rest of the offseason.  The sooner they can do that, the better.  Ideally, it’s done by the start of the draft and really allows them to plan out the rest of their summer.  If one of them wants to sign in the mid-$4MM to low-$5MM range, they’ll probably jump on it.

Coyotes1: Hello, what players will the Coyotes try to acquire this offseason to reach the cap floor? I’m thinking JVR, Carl Hagelin, and Brett Connolly, is there other players they may be looking at? I know there are rumors that they talk to the Vancouver Canucks about helping them out. What surprise team do you think could be looking to acquire Jakob Chychrun? Do you think the price has increased to get him? What do they do with Shayne Gostisbehere; he had a rebound year, should they trade him or keep him? Thank you and have a good day!!!

Of the three players you listed, Hagelin may not be as much of a priority.  With Nicklas Backstrom likely done for the year, Washington isn’t in a spot where they will want to get out of LTIR; they’ll be in there all year so moving Hagelin (whose availability is also in question) isn’t a big priority.  I could see Vancouver trying to get them to take Micheal Ferland’s LTIR contract but his contract isn’t believed to be insured which could be a deterrent for the Coyotes.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Calgary tries to convince Milan Lucic to waive his trade protection to go there; after his signing bonus is paid next month, his base salary is just $1MM.  That’s the type of contract they’d ideally like to add.

Other names I could see being offered up by teams would be Bruins winger Nick Foligno, Wild defenseman Dmitry Kulikov, Oilers winger Zack Kassian, Canadiens winger Jonathan Drouin, and Blues defenseman Marco Scandella.  There will be varying degrees in terms of how much incentive one of those teams might want to provide but all of those players qualify as short-term (two years or fewer) cap dumps to alleviate some pending cap concerns.

I don’t think the price for Chychrun has gone up but I doubt it has gone down either.  It likely still includes the three first-round elements (or slightly more, depending on which report you believe).  Arizona still holds the hammer for a little while; there’s no trade request or real pressure point as they can ask for that type of price through this coming season.  As for a surprise team, that probably rules out Los Angeles who seemed to be the speculative favorite going back to the trade deadline.  Would Anaheim count?  They’re rebuilding but they stockpiled plenty of extra draft picks, have a good prospect base, and some young (cost-controlled) roster players that should be of interest.  Is Pat Verbeek interested in expediting the rebuild?  If so, that’s an under-the-radar team I’d look for.

Gostisbehere certainly had a bounce-back season but he’ll be 30 by the end of the season.  Is he a part of their long-term plans?  Probably not at that age.  Unless he’s willing to take a team-friendly deal to stay in the desert, he’s a strong trade candidate closer to the trade deadline with the Coyotes retaining money to get another good draft pick or prospect.  They don’t have many notable expiring contracts to move at the deadline (for now, at least) so the blueliner would be at the top of my in-season trade list.

bigalval: What are the chances of the Kings landing Filip Forsberg? He might be the last missing piece and he and Arvidsson are close.

I don’t try to read too much into public comments on negotiations but it was telling that Predators GM David Poile indicated back on Thursday that they’ve made Forsberg an eight-year offer.  That’s a big commitment for someone that, up until this season, had never recorded more than 64 points in a single season.  I wasn’t sure they’d go that far.  Obviously, the money still isn’t right (otherwise the deal would be done) but that’s a big hurdle cleared.  What’s better for Forsberg – seven years at a slightly higher cap hit in free agency or eight years at a bit of a lower price tag in a place with no state income tax?

How you answer that question affects the chances of him leaving Nashville and potentially going to Los Angeles.  This is a question I’ve covered in the past with Forsberg and the Kings and it certainly makes sense on several levels.  While I don’t think they’re at a level where they should be trading for an impact player just yet, if they can get one in free agency, they should be all over it.  If Forsberg makes it to the open market, I’d put the Kings as a strong contender for his services but I do think there is still some wiggle room in talks with the Predators with Poile’s comments being public posturing.  At this point, I still think he stays but the closer we get to July 13th, that could certainly change.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Detroit Red Wings Edition

June 25, 2022 at 12:27 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

There were several questions about the Red Wings in our latest callout for questions for the PHR Mailbag.  Rather than try to condense them to fit them within a full mailbag, let’s examine them in a bit more detail in a Detroit-specific piece.  The rest of the mailbag will run on Sunday.

pawdog13: What have you heard about the Red Wings’ coaching search? Crickets everywhere!

@jamara23732: Who do you believe the Red Wings will hire as head coach?

The best way to describe Detroit’s coaching search thus far is that it’s thorough.  GM Steve Yzerman is known to be patient and he’s turning over every rock while considering both experienced and first-time options.  Barry Trotz interviewed for the opening back in May but Trotz basically interviewed with every team that has a coaching vacancy and then decided to take next season off.  David Quinn, the former Rangers head coach, has also been interviewed.  He’s someone that has a lot of experience working with younger players and with the Red Wings having a younger roster, that could be appealing.  They also interviewed Bruce Cassidy but clearly, that one isn’t happening as he’s now with Vegas.

Speculatively, I think part of their hold up is that Yzerman wants to have a conversation with Derek Lalonde, an assistant with the Lightning.  Yzerman was still with Tampa Bay when Lalonde joined them so he will have some familiarity and considering what Tampa Bay has done since then, he has only helped boost his stock since then.  Detroit might not be the only team waiting for the Stanley Cup Final to end to have a conversation with Lalonde.

As for who I think they’ll hire, I’ve covered that one in a prior mailbag but I’ll mention it here again in Jim Montgomery.  Dallas was doing well under his tutelage before his departure so it’s not as if he’s a first-time bench boss.  He also has a track record of working with younger players from his days in college.  He’s also someone that fits both types of coaching options.  He could be the long-term solution behind the bench which would be great for them but he could also be a transitional coach, one that helps elevate the stock and development of certain players but might not be the right fit in the end.  Either option would be a win for them at this stage.  In reality, your guess is as good as mine with the lack of information out there about their search but Montgomery would be my pick.

gowings2008: Any idea who the Red Wings may target in free agency? Based on the direction the team is headed, I think adding a player like Andre Burakovsky could make sense.

@jamara23732: What free agents do you see the Red Wings pursuing when free agency starts?

I don’t expect Detroit to necessarily be shopping at the top end of the market yet.  Are they ready to flip the switch and move to win-now mode?  They’re getting closer to that point but I don’t think it’ll be this summer.  That should keep them out of the bidding wars for the top players.

Looking at their depth chart, their center situation stands out.  Dylan Larkin is in place although he only has one yet left on his contract.  After that, there are a lot of question marks.  Pius Suter isn’t a true top-six option and while Michael Rasmussen has shown some improvement, he fits much better on the third line than the second.  Joe Veleno has similar upside.  Oskar Sundqvist, acquired at the trade deadline, is also a bottom-sixer.  There’s a definite need for a top-six center.

Vincent Trocheck is someone I expect them to take a serious run at.  He turns 29 next month so he should still have several good seasons ahead of him.  He’s not going to push to be a top pivot – that spot is still Larkin’s – but he’d allow Rasmussen and Veleno to slot into the last two center spots and give them a very stable group of middlemen.  Good teams need good center depth and Trocheck would give them exactly that.  If that doesn’t happen, they might inquire on Andrew Copp and Ryan Strome, similar-aged players that would give them some stability although the upside isn’t as great.  I’d be more worried about adding middlemen than wingers at this point so while Burakovsky would certainly help, he shouldn’t be their top priority either.

The left side of their back end is another sizable hole but that will be difficult to fill in free agency as the impact rearguards are righties.  I’ve mused in the past about them taking a look at someone like John Klingberg which would free them up to trade Filip Hronek for a lefty that better fits their needs.  That might be their best shot at adding an impact left-side defender, actually.  Simon Edvinsson will see some time next season but their free agent target on that side might be a veteran like Ian Cole, someone that can play on the third pairing and log some tough minutes on the penalty kill.  Keeping Marc Staal is another option.  Alexander Edler would be a tier a bit above that but that’s as good as I think they can do on the free agent front on that side of their back end.

On the trade front, if they keep Hronek and don’t add an impact righty, I could see them inquiring about Alec Martinez, a Michigan native.  Vegas still needs to clear money and since they played without him for a lot of this past season, they know they can manage without him if need be.  With two years left on his contract, he’d be an ideal bridge veteran to work with Edvinsson as well.

Johnny Z: Predict the unpredictable: What is Stevie Y’s big move this summer? Example: What LD vet does he find? Will he bolster the C position and with who? Does he get Larkin extended under $9M? What veteran goalie does he get?

The defense and center spots were covered above and I’ll lean into my Klingberg prediction as their big move with Hronek, who has two years left at an affordable $4.4MM price tag, being flipped for a left-shot defender that’s signed or under team control for at least two more years.

As for Larkin, I do think a long-term extension will get done this summer.  He stated at the end of the season that he couldn’t see himself playing elsewhere and then changed agents with the belief being that talks on a new deal will start soon.  Unless Yzerman was to low-ball his captain, something should get done.

I’m fairly confident it will be under $9MM per as well.  Larkin has never been a point-per-game player and has only come close to that mark twice.  In that sense, he’s not a true top center so he shouldn’t be expecting to be paid as such.  There are some recent comparables to work off of as well – Mika Zibanejad will get $8.5MM from the Rangers next year, Tomas Hertl is a little over $8MM from San Jose, and Sean Couturier checks in at $7.75MM.  Is Larkin’s track record better than those players?  He’d have a hard time making that case.  He’s younger so there will be an expectation of more in-prime years that should push his AAV into that range instead of being below it but I’d be quite surprised if his next price tag came in above Zibanejad’s $8.5MM.

Now, let’s look at the goaltending situation.  I don’t think Jussi Olkinuora is the intended backup although I do like that signing to see if he is indeed a late bloomer.  He’ll partner up with Sebastian Cossa in Grand Rapids and it’s his trajectory that Yzerman will need to be mindful of.  Yes, he’s a promising prospect but most goalies will need a few years before being NHL-ready.  With Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal set to expire next summer, they need someone on a multi-year deal.

This isn’t a great group of veterans to work with so I expect their primary targets to be Ville Husso and Jack Campbell.  Both players don’t have the type of clout to command a long-term contract but something in the three-year range is where they should fall.  That lines up with Cossa’s timeline in the sense that Husso or Campbell would be expiring when Cossa is ready.  At that point, they can either walk or be extended to partner up with him.  My pick would be one of those two.

If they go elsewhere, I would be looking towards Washington and one of their pending RFAs.  If they want a proven veteran, one of Ilya Samsonov or Vitek Vanecek would be on the move and both of those netminders would be candidates for the medium-term deals I’m suggesting they’ll want to give to Husso or Campbell.  They need some stability at the position and getting that should be near the top of Yzerman’s to-do list this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Detroit Red Wings| PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Klefbom, LTIR, Blashill, Top Pick, Miller, Sabres, Predictions, Murray, Cup Final

June 18, 2022 at 1:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 16 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the creative usage of LTIR in recent years, Buffalo’s goaltending situation, J.T. Miller’s future with Vancouver, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here and wasn’t about Detroit, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.  If your question was about the Red Wings, watch for that to be covered in a bonus mailbag between now and then.

WilfPaiement: Is there any updated information on Oscar Klefbom? Playing next season? Retiring?

It’s the status quo for the Edmonton blueliner.  Klefbom’s shoulder injury still lingers and at this point, there’s no expectation that he’ll be able to resume his NHL career.  He certainly won’t be retiring, however.  He’s still owed $5.169MM in salary for next season and there’s no way he’s leaving that on the table to do Edmonton a favor.  Since his deal is backloaded as well, he’s not as likely of a candidate to be moved to a team looking to do some LTIR shenanigans.  Speaking of which…

rickg: Are there any opinions on how teams are using the LTIR for the purpose of adding to the roster to better the team, instead of what the LTIR was intended to be used for as a way to replace an injured player on your roster if your team was maxed out and LTIR allowed the team to go past the high-end cap threshold?

There are few things as confusing in hockey as the inner machinations of LTIR.  It might even give ‘What constitutes goalie interference?’ a run for its money at times.  I’d say by now that most understand the basics which was what the rule was intended to be but these trades that now see injured players going for value that involve transaction sequencing and precise timing of roster moves takes it to a whole different level, one that is much more confusing and harder to explain.

But even if they’re harder to explain, are stranger on the surface, and can even flat out baffle people, I have no problem with these types of moves.  The NHL is a hard cap system that doesn’t have a lot of potential for wiggle room.  If teams can find a loophole to exploit, go for it.  Use it until enough general managers complain to make it a sticking point in the next CBA discussions.  Right now, there isn’t enough of an appetite for trying to close that Pandora’s box.

Does the recent Shea Weber for Evgenii Dadonov trade go against the spirit of the LTIR rule?  Of course it does.  But if Montreal and Vegas are both happy at the end of the day and the trade fulfills an objective they wanted to achieve, then good on them for finding a way to make something work.  At least it made for a good discussion point for a bit of time during a quiet part of the NHL calendar when it comes to off-ice movement.

I’ll mention that this question came in before that trade happened.  Perfect timing on your part.

Johnny Z: So, does Blashill have the inside track on the Florida coaching job?

The former Detroit bench boss was linked to the Panthers earlier this month but at this point, it’s hard to see him being the contender for a position that may or may not be available.  With reports coming out on Friday that Florida is conducting a rather thorough coaching search and has interviewed several prominent veterans, it’s hard to see Jeff Blashill coming up as the winner in that particular battle should GM Bill Zito opt to go in a different direction from interim head coach Andrew Brunette.

I think Blashill could be a candidate to be an assistant coach with Florida, however, particularly if Brunette retains the job.  There are openings to be filled and if you have effectively a first-time head coach running the bench, it wouldn’t hurt to have someone with recent NHL head coaching experience on the staff.  Blashill, who doesn’t seem to be a candidate for any of the other openings at the moment, would be a decent fit in that type of role and unlike the prominent veterans, would likely be willing to accept an associate coach position as well.  He could wind up in Florida, just not as their next head coach.

ckw: Do you think Shane Wright is going to go first overall and if not, who do you see the Habs taking?

I know there’s a growing sense that Juraj Slafkovsky could ultimately be the number one pick and I can understand the logic behind it.  Wright’s season wasn’t up to the admittedly high level of expectations and while Slafkovsky was quiet himself for long stretches, his performance at the Olympics and the Worlds turned some heads.  If he can find a way to play at that level consistently, he’s worthy of being the top pick.  But that’s a big if.  Even so, this doesn’t feel like the type of typical smokescreen you might see at this time of year from the team holding the top pick.

That said, Wright is my expected choice for the Canadiens.  Montreal has been chasing center help for basically the better part of two decades now.  Even when their NHL depth was good, they didn’t have that true number one.  I don’t think Wright is a true number one either but a combination of him and Nick Suzuki for seven years as their top two options is a lot better than what they’ve trotted out in recent years.  I have a hard time thinking they can pass on that, especially knowing that their salary cap situation isn’t exactly ideal; it’s not as if they can go out and sign an impact free agent middleman any time soon.

pawtucket: J.T. Miller gets traded. If yes, to what sort of team and for what sort of package.  If no, which of Horvat or Boeser goes and to what sort of team and for what sort of package.

I’m going to say yes, Miller does get traded.  Is Vancouver really prepared to pay upwards of $8MM per season on a contract that starts at the age of 30 for a player who has only twice reached the 60-point mark?  I know he has been much more productive lately but I still see giant red flags when I try to picture that type of contract.  Knowing extending Miller would eventually cost Bo Horvat (they can’t afford Elias Pettersson, Miller, and Horvat down the middle), I’d rather take the short-term hit in talent to add some important future assets and gain some much-needed cap flexibility.

As for where, that’s a tough one but I’ll say Los Angeles.  Anze Kopitar has two years left on his deal and Miller’s extension wouldn’t start until 2023-24 so there’s only one year of overlap.  Kopitar will be in his age-37 season when he signs his next contract so he’ll likely be starting to decline at that time; a new top pivot will be needed.  Miller would be a good insurance policy if the likes of Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte don’t pan out as intended (and if they do, affordable short-term surplus center depth is never a bad thing).  The Kings have the cap space to bring him in now and have some longer-term flexibility.  They also have quality prospects that would make it easier to part with the package it would take.

I’d peg that package as a three-piece deal.  The first-round pick (19th overall) next month would be one of them.  I’d put Rasmus Kupari in their as a second one, a 22-year-old former first-rounder that could be Vancouver’s cost-controlled 3C of the future; if he pans out, a Pettersson-Horvat (assuming he’d be extended after moving Miller)-Kupari trio would put them in good shape.  The other is a prospect and looking at what the Canucks have in their prospect pool, a right-shot defender would be a target.  The Kings have a few of those but the one that stands out is Brock Faber, a 2020 second-rounder that’s probably a year away from being pro-ready and plays the type of complementary game that would work well alongside someone like Quinn Hughes.

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@JoeBad34TD: The Sabres are attempting to get to the cap floor. Bringing on a retired goalie’s salary for a 7th rd pick is a waste of resources. Is there anything in the CBA preventing them from overpaying Portillo? I know he is unproven but he offers more than a retired goalie?

Thomas merante: I believe the Sabres are in a goaltending mess, Portillo won’t sign, Levi is years away from playing (if he even makes it) and UPL is injured way too often to be looked at as a number one, thoughts on who they may target in FA, thanks.

sabres3277: What do you think the Sabres should do about the goaltending situation? Trade two of the three first-rounders etc. to acquire a high-end veteran goalie, John Gibson? Or give the job to UPL and sign a veteran backup?

Buffalo’s goaltending was a popular topic this time around so let’s address all of these together, starting with Erik Portillo.  Yes, there is something in the CBA preventing them from overpaying the 21-year-old.  He is restricted to signing an entry-level contract and there are limits on the types of performance bonuses that can be offered, as well as the amounts.

What Buffalo can do that others can’t is offer to burn a year of the contract midseason.  Portillo turns 22 in September so he’ll become eligible for a two-year deal at that time.  Buffalo can burn the first year of that by signing him once Michigan’s season comes to an end, meaning he’d be a restricted free agent in 2024.  If he deregisters from college and becomes a free agent next summer (he’ll be four years post-draft and thus eligible to do so), he’ll still have to sign a two-year ELC (subject to the same restrictions Buffalo can offer in terms of compensation), meaning he won’t get to restricted free agency until 2025.  If you’re hoping for some cause for optimism that Portillo will sign with Buffalo eventually, this is it.

Onto the current goaltending situation.  I expect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to be one of the two netminders Buffalo has on their opening night roster this season.  They believe he’s part of their long-term plans so they need to see him in regular NHL games to better assess his upside.  However, with his limited track record, he’s not going to be getting 50-plus starts either so they need a veteran second-string option.

That said, how desirable are the Sabres to free agent goaltenders?  They’ve missed the playoffs in 11 straight seasons and as things stand, I’d say the odds of making it an even dozen are better than that stretch coming to an end.  Those same free agents know that Luukkonen will be the priority, not them.  As a result, Buffalo isn’t going to be on the top of anyone’s priority list when it comes to goaltenders except for maybe Craig Anderson if he wants to stay.  If he wants to stay and play 35-40 games while mentoring Luukkonen at a cap hit (and salary) close to the minimum, I suspect that’s their preferred option.  In that scenario, they have a better understanding a year from now as to where Luukkonen slots in (as a starter or the backup) and they’ll be a year closer to turning things around.  At that point, they’re a more desirable target for free agents.

If I had to go outside the organization for a free agent this summer, however, Braden Holtby comes to mind.  He had a good bounce-back year in Dallas and if he’s looking for a multi-year deal, Buffalo could be a team willing to go two years and see what a tandem with him and Luukkonen looks like while giving them a little bit of stability at the position.

I wouldn’t be considering trading for a goalie at this time, especially not with a pair of first-round picks.  Goalies rarely command much in the way of trade value so why part with some key assets in the middle of the rebuild to get one?  There’s no true starter available and what you can get in a trade isn’t all that different from the annual free agent carousel.  They need to see if Luukkonen is the goalie of the future before really considering parting with assets (or a long-term contract) for a new netminder.

The Duke: In an attempt to give it a summertime break of sorts, just a simple Crystal Ball prognostication: Now that the dominos are beginning to fall, exactly where does John Gibson play in October? OK, one more little one: With Ellis healthy and Sanheim’s stock rising, does Ivan Provorov play elsewhere next season?

The crystal ball appreciates the opportunity to recharge and continues to show Gibson playing in Anaheim next season.  He recently denied reports of a trade request and it’s not as if his trade value is particularly high right now after three straight subpar seasons.  With five years left on his contract at an above-market AAV relative to his recent performance, the Ducks aren’t going to get the type of trade offer that’s good enough to justify trading him.

Last summer, GM Chuck Fletcher acquired Ellis with an eye on bolstering his back end.  They didn’t get a lot of time together with Ellis’ injury and things went sideways.  But now, with them still going in with a win-now mentality, it seems more likely that they keep those three to see what they can do over diluting their blueline to fill another hole.  If things aren’t looking good midseason and it becomes a question of only keeping one of Provorov or Travis Sanheim (a UFA in 2023), then yes, a move will need to be made.  But for now, keeping the core of their defense corps seems likeliest.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Please explain all the Murray to Toronto “rumours”. doesn’t seem to make sense to me.

Let’s go back to Murray’s junior days.  He played for the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL.  He was coached by Sheldon Keefe, head coach of the Maple Leafs.  The GM of that team (at least for part of Murray’s time there) was Kyle Dubas, current GM of the Maple Leafs.  Former Greyhounds have been brought in previously with both Dubas and Keefe citing familiarity with them being a factor.  Put all of that together and you can see where the speculative link comes from.  They were linked to him two years ago before Ottawa acquired him too for the exact same reason.

If Jack Campbell moves on, they’ll need a new starter.  It won’t be Petr Mrazek, that much is for sure.  Murray has fallen out of favor in Ottawa so perhaps there’s a buy-low type of situation here.  Both Murray and Mrazek have two years left on their respective deals and if the Senators would be willing to retain a sizable portion of Murray’s $6.25MM AAV and take back Mrazek at $3.8MM, that could be the foundation of a trade with Toronto sending other assets to cover the holdback in salary.  Is that a great solution for the Maple Leafs?  Probably not but if their other plans fall through, that could be a fallback option.

Y2KAK: Three-peat or Avs?

My pick heading into the series was Tampa Bay in six games and even with Colorado looking quite good in the opener, I’ll stick with that.  Andrei Vasilevskiy can steal games while Darcy Kuemper has been up and down with Colorado this season.  Vasilevskiy could steal a game or two and Kuemper could cost the Avalanche a game or two.  That’s enough to be the difference-maker.  It’s not fair to lay everything at the foot of goaltending in this series but it’s the only significant talent gap between the two sides so that’s what I keep coming back to.  Based on our poll results, it appears I’m in the minority on that front with nearly two-thirds of the votes coming to Colorado.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

June 16, 2022 at 12:15 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 41 Comments

The Stanley Cup Final is upon us, the first domino has fallen in the coaching shuffle around the league, while the draft and free agency are now less than a month away as the offseason activity is almost upon us.  With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Our last mailbag was broken into two parts.  The first included a look at New Jersey’s goaltending situation and the chances they’ll move the second-overall pick, Toronto’s early playoff exit, and Barry Trotz’s contenders (one of which is now off the table).  Meanwhile, the second looked at what’s needed for Ottawa to take the next step forward, the second-line center situation for the Rangers, and what Seattle should be doing this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

PHR Mailbag

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PHR Mailbag: Senators, Dumba, Rangers, Underrated Players, Kraken, Bruins, Kings, Penguins Coaching Staff

May 29, 2022 at 7:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 19 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mathew Dumba and Minnesota’s cap crunch, the Rangers’ center situation beyond this season, Seattle’s underwhelming year, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

MoneyBallJustWorks: What is the next step for the Sens. The team has stockpiled a good core of youth (especially on the blue line) but what do they have to do this offseason to take the next step?

The young nucleus for the Senators is pretty strong between Brady Tkachuk, Joshua Norris, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson up front plus Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson on the back end.  Now, they need to upgrade the supporting cast, so to speak.

Defensively, they need a top-four, all situations type of player.  Players like Nick Holden, Nikita Zaitsev, and even trade deadline acquisition Travis Hamonic are serviceable veterans that can raise the floor of their defense corps.  While that’s useful, now GM Pierre Dorion needs to raise the ceiling for this group to take a step forward.  Chabot and Sanderson plus Artem Zub and Erik Brannstrom have some room to grow but with the right veterans, they’ll get there faster.

Up front, the top line is pretty much set with Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson.  But Stutzle’s linemates aren’t as consistent or anywhere near as good.  Connor Brown is a good veteran but he’s not a big scorer while Alex Formenton’s speed is high-end but his scoring isn’t.  Upgrading one (or if you want to aim big, both) of those spots would really deepen the offense.

On top of that, a goalie upgrade would help them take a step forward.  Anton Forsberg isn’t a true starter, Matt Murray has underachieved, and Filip Gustavsson may not be ready for a full-time NHL roster spot (although waiver eligibility will probably keep him up).

That’s a huge wish list but adding any of those elements will help them get back to at least realistically battling for a playoff spot next season.  That would be a good next step for Ottawa who isn’t really in a position to go from a bottom-feeder to a contender overnight unless Dorion manages to have the offseason of a lifetime and hit on all of these areas.

DarkSide830: With his name in past rumors and MIN needing to make a move, I wonder, can PHI make a move for Dumba? They need to get better on the back end and he could be available for 80 cents on the dollar with MIN’s crunch. I presume they need to move out a JVR then. Can they move enough of JVR’s cap without having to give someone a pick with it so they can reasonably fit Dumba in?

While I agree that Minnesota has a cap crunch, I disagree that they will make someone like Dumba available for 80 cents on the dollar.  Yes, everyone knows they need to clear money but whoever goes – Dumba or Kevin Fiala (who’d fit one of those holes in Ottawa we just went over) – there will be enough demand that they’ll be able to get full value.  Let’s say it’s Dumba.  The UFA market for impact defensemen isn’t the deepest and Dumba’s cap hit is lower than what players like Kris Letang and John Klingberg are going to get.  That bodes well for maximizing trade value, even with their hand being forced.

As for James van Riemsdyk, they’re not going to get much cap relief in a trade unless they send a pick with him.  If I was an acquiring team, I’m pointing at the Patrick Marleau to Carolina trade as a benchmark; that move cost Toronto a first-rounder.  Is it possible that they flip him for another underachieving veteran that makes a little less?  Sure.  That is definitely a plausible option.  But will they save enough to fit Dumba’s $6MM in?  Nope.  Frankly, I’m not sure they’d save more on the cap next season than if they bought him out ($4.33MM cap charge) with a trade.

And if I’m Philadelphia GM Chuck Fletcher, notwithstanding the van Riemsdyk thing, do I really want to part with the first-round pick and/or a top young asset that it will probably take to get into the bidding to acquire Dumba?  That’s not a smart strategy for a non-playoff team, even if it’s a core he thinks is better than it has shown.  Once you do factor in the likely cost to offload van Riemsdyk’s contract for cap relief on top of the acquisition cost, the price for Dumba is one they shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Bill Blueshirt: The NYR need a 2C next year while being in a cap squeeze. Strome seems unaffordable. Do they a) sign Copp, b) go with Chytil and backfill at 3C, c) trade some of their many prospects for a C (and who would that be), or d) ???

I’m not convinced the bidding for Ryan Strome is going to be super high this summer.  Yes, he has put up impressive numbers the last couple of seasons but he was doing that with Artemi Panarin on the wing a good chunk of the time.  But his history before getting to New York was spotty at best and I’m confident there are general managers out there who will be hesitant to commit a big contract to him this summer.

I’m not saying there won’t be a good market for him but I wouldn’t be shocked if his AAV winds up being close to where Andrew Copp’s lands.  If that’s the case, I don’t think Strome re-signing can easily be ruled out.

Do they need to free up some money?  Probably.  I wonder if they try to find a taker for Patrik Nemeth and take a cheaper player back to give them some wiggle room.  But if they go with some cheap end-of-roster options and make a small cap-clearing move or two (Alexandar Georgiev being another one), I think they can cobble enough together to make an intermediate type of offer that could be enough to keep one of Copp or Strome in the fold.  So, to answer your question, I’ll pick either a or d.

FearTheWilson: In your opinion who are the most underrated players in the league?

This is always a hard question to answer as underrated can be interpreted in a few different contexts.  I could rhyme off some names that some of you may not be familiar with that are actually important players and that would qualify as underrated.  But I suspect you’re looking for more prominent names so I’ll go with those.

Quick, think of an impact center on the Blues.  No, not Ryan O’Reilly.  Not Brayden Schenn either who, for many, would be the second one that comes to mind with his contract.  Meanwhile, all Robert Thomas did this season was lead their centers in scoring while logging nearly 19 minutes a night.  He was an impact offensive player in junior and while it has taken a few years for him to truly become an impact player in the NHL, he’s there, even if he doesn’t immediately come to mind when St. Louis centers are being discussed.

Roope Hintz is a player that many are familiar with.  If you were thinking to yourself that he’s a good secondary scorer, it’d certainly be understandable.  When digging into this question, that’s where I was leaning.  But he averaged over a point per game last year and followed that up with 37 goals and 35 assists this season, finishing tied for 20th in the league in goals.  That’s not a good secondary scorer, that’s a higher-end primary player who, by the way, spends a lot of time at center after coming up as a winger a few years ago.  He definitely fits the bill of being underrated.

As for a defenseman, the first one that came to mind was Calgary’s Rasmus Andersson.  He showed flashes of offensive upside over his first few NHL seasons but found another gear this season as he very quickly reached the 50-point mark.  But he isn’t just a slick-skating, offensive defender.  He takes a regular turn on the penalty kill and is trusted in all situations while leading the Flames in ice time.  Despite all of that, if I ran a poll of what type of blueliner he is, I think a ‘good number four’ would probably win out.  He’s much more than that; Andersson is quietly pushing for lower-end number one territory.

I’ll add a goalie to the list as well in Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin.  His delayed arrival in North America has resulted in limited exposure; he has played in just 74 career NHL games.  On top of that, New York had a season to forget as they were out of contention early.  But Sorokin very quietly was second in the league in save percentage this season (.925) and fourth in goals against average (2.40), impressive numbers for a non-playoff team.  If he puts up similar numbers next season and the Isles rebound in the standings, Sorokin will be in the discussion for the Vezina Trophy.  But when it comes to thinking of top NHL goaltenders, his name often doesn’t come up.

trak2k: If the Kraken do not “do anything” in free agency and or struggle at the beginning of next season do they fire the GM?

I don’t think there’s any chance of a GM change in Seattle within the next year.  When the Kraken chose their roster in expansion, it became more than evident that they were planning a longer-scale build.  In other words, they were going to have the development curve of a traditional expansion team.  That results in losing seasons early on.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Ron Francis did a particularly good job in assembling his roster in expansion and even their coaching choice was underwhelming.  But he got the green light to build this way.  To turn around and go back on that this early doesn’t seem like a likely outcome.

If I was Francis, I wouldn’t be overly active in free agency this summer.  With so many teams in cap trouble, they’re ripe for the picking in terms of adding extra picks and prospects in exchange for taking on an unwanted contract or two, improving their future, and probably helping the current team in the process.  Basically, do what they didn’t do a year ago.

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aka.nda: I’d like to hear more on the Kraken.. seems they have a buffet of conundrums: 1. Goaltending, 2. Jaden Schwartz, 3. Victor Rask (why’d they play him so much?), 4. Massive amount of ‘22 picks, 5. Fleurys, 6. RFAs, 7. Captain, 8. Cap space… Speculate vigorously!

With so many questions, I’m going to have to go with pretty quick answers here.

1) Stay with Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger – both have shown enough in the past to think a rebound is likely.  And even if Francis thinks otherwise, neither has good trade value at the moment.

2) Not much they can do with Schwartz.  His injury history hurts his value and with four years left on his contract, he’s not exactly tradeable right now.  Plus he has a no-move clause.  He needs to play his way into some trade value.

3) Francis had Rask in Carolina and gave him the contract that will end in July.  He had a lot of faith in the center so it’s understandable he’d have been willing to give him a long leash to see if there’s anything left.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he was re-signed for around the league minimum next season.

4) This team doesn’t have much of a prospect base yet.  They could use all 12 picks and it wouldn’t be surprising; if they did, they’d still have a pretty thin pool.  Maybe they flip one or two of those for picks next year to balance things out but if they come out of the draft with the most additions to their system, that’s exactly what they need.

5) Haydn Fleury – Hard to see him qualified at $1.55MM with his limited role but it wouldn’t surprise me to Seattle try to get him at a little less on a one-year deal.  He’s another player Francis had in Carolina and believes in.

Cale Fleury – Seattle will have their own AHL team next season in Coachella Valley and they need a lot of bodies to fill out their roster after sharing a team with Carolina this year.  Fleury is a safe bet to clear waivers to he’s the type of player they’ll need to fill out the roster for the Firebirds.  He should stay.

6) Most get tendered other than maybe the first Fleury.  If they’re worried about Ryan Donato’s arbitration award if it went to a hearing, he could be a non-tender option as well but they probably will try to keep him even if he isn’t qualified.  Some of their players on the fringes of the roster are options for the Firebirds next season.

7) If they name a captain, Yanni Gourde seems like the best option as a hard-working, respected, and impactful veteran.  I wouldn’t be in a rush to name one though and if they want to go with only alternates next season, that would be perfectly fine.

8) I touched on this in the last question but rather than see them commit another Schwartz-like contract this summer, I’d like to see them take on shorter-term big deals and add other organizational assets.  They should have done that last summer but didn’t.  That said, I think they’ll get in the bidding for some of the big names to see if they can make a splash before pivoting towards some second-tier options.

SkidRowe: What do the Bruins do if Bergeron retires?

I think Boston signaled their intentions when they traded futures for Hampus Lindholm at the trade deadline and promptly signed him to an eight-year extension.  That’s not a move made by a team that’s thinking about transitioning to a rebuild whenever Patrice Bergeron decides to call it a career.

For me, Plan A is signing Nazem Kadri.  He’s not the same type of player Bergeron is – few are – but he showed this year that he is capable of scoring at a high-end level and that he can find another gear with top wingers.  The Bruins have two top wingers in Brad Marchand (once he returns from surgery) and David Pastrnak and I think that trio could be a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams.  If not him, they’re going to kick the tires on any top-six center that hits the open market and hope to land one of them.  Charlie Coyle did well enough as the middleman on the second line that they only look to make one move.

Of course, it’s worth noting that Boston doesn’t have anywhere near enough cap space to add an impact piece this summer and will need to shed some salary.  I’d look to the back end for that where they have nearly $32MM in commitments, per CapFriendly.  That’s a bit much considering teams only dress six rearguards per game.  But the ones they’re likely going to want to move (Derek Forbort or Mike Reilly would be my guess) aren’t going to be enough to add an impact center back.  GM Don Sweeney has traded several higher draft picks in recent years so they don’t have the farm system or surplus draft choices to deal from to try to take a run at Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele if the Jets opt to shake up their core.

I think that takes trading for a Bergeron replacement off the table.  As a result, with them clearly being in win-now mode, Sweeney needs to find a way to get a key center to sign off the open market while making a trade or two to free up the necessary cap space to make it happen.  At this point, don’t even think about Plan B if Bergeron decides to retire – they just can’t miss on a free agent replacement.

rpoabr: Should the Kings swing for the fences this offseason or is it too early? They have a ton of young assets, some cap space, and an appealing situation to incoming FAs. Should they make some major trades or be patient another year to see what develops with the young group?

I don’t think Los Angeles is in their prime window yet (their core youngsters aren’t in their primes just yet) but if the opportunity presents itself to land an impact free agent, they have to take it.  If they can add a core player to their roster without losing any future assets and use their cap space to their advantage, that can only help.  I wouldn’t swing for the fences but augmenting their roster doesn’t hurt.

Knowing that the Kings will have their young core getting more expensive quickly, there’s a reasonable case to be made that going a year early might actually be beneficial as the deal will be easier to move (or expiring) before the potential cap crunch down the road.

That said, I draw the line at free agency.  It’s one thing to add a ‘free’ asset but another to trade pieces away too early.  I don’t think that would be the right move for them to make.  That’s one of those things to do when it’s time for that final piece or two.  They’re not there yet.  Use this next year (or even two) to evaluate what they have so they know exactly what they need and who is expendable when the time comes to make that move.  For me, it’s either add free agents or stand pat for Los Angeles this summer.

One More JAGR: Is Sullivan and his “system” on the hotseat? Perhaps Reirden?

A lot will depend on what winds up happening this summer.  If the Penguins are able to keep most of their current core together, there will be win-now expectations and a slow start would probably have Mike Sullivan on the hotseat.  But if they lose a couple of pieces and look more like a middle-of-the-pack team at best on paper, the expectations should be different and it would seemingly allow them to be more patient if they get off to a slower start next season.

That said, Sullivan wasn’t hired by Pittsburgh’s current management group which is always noteworthy while he has also been there seven years so there’s a risk of the message growing stale.  Those have to be factors to consider as well.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sullivan near the list of speculative coaches on the hotseat to start next season as a result but again, a lot will depend on what does (or doesn’t) happen with their roster in the coming months.

As for Todd Reirden, assistants are always tough to predict.  Is it possible he’d go with Sullivan if they decided to clean house?  Sure.  Is it also possible that they’d view him as an ideal interim head coach if they want to make a change but have someone that has run an NHL bench before take over for the rest of the year?  That certainly is a potential option as well.  Until we see what Pittsburgh looks like next season and what the proper expectations should be though, it’s hard to forecast the short-term future of their coaching staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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PHR Mailbag: Devils, Trotz, Maple Leafs, Predators, Predictions, Penguins, Quenneville

May 22, 2022 at 6:49 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Barry Trotz’s market, Toronto’s early playoff exit, what’s next for Nashville, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

M34: With a pretty strong young core and some team-friendly veteran contracts with plenty of room to spare, which UFA goalie does NJ pursue?  Kuemper?  Fleury?

Non-tendered: Another one regarding the Devils — It appears as if they have the assets and cap space to acquire an elite goaltender, which many believe is their biggest need. Is the notion of needing an elite goaltender done? The Oilers are primed to go deep and look at all the goalie problems they’ve had. Carolina is a revolving door of consonants between the pipes. How many elite goalies are there, really? Vasy, Shesterkin, Bob?

I’d prefer the Devils to shore up the netminder for 7+ years to come, but I’m not sure Kuemper, Gibson, or Husso are the ones. Who do the Devils look to to improve the goalie situation and what do they with all their assets?

I had a similar question in a mailbag last month so I won’t dig too deep into who they go after.  But I think the Devils are going to have a hard time making themselves attractive to veterans like Darcy Kuemper and Marc-Andre Fleury.  Kuemper is on a top team with a chance for a long playoff run.  To turn around and go to a team that has consistently been out of the playoffs for a while would be surprising.  As for Fleury, he’s near the end of his career.  He wants to win or play where he’s comfortable.  I don’t think New Jersey fits either situation.

The UFA I think they go after is Ville Husso.  They have the cap space to go higher on the AAV than most teams will so why not go for some upside?  There’s some risk but if they offset that with a capable 1B option (I suggested a trade for Boston’s Linus Ullmark in that previous mailbag assuming he’s willing to waive his no-move protection), the risk would be mitigated to an extent.  That would give them a capable tandem with a big of upside and some certainty; Ullmark is signed for three years and Husso will probably get that long or more.  Some stability between the pipes certainly wouldn’t hurt.  I also don’t think they’d need to part with any significant asset to get Ullmark from the Bruins.

Now to circle back to the question that’s sort of sandwiched by what New Jersey should do.  You make a good point in that there are few elite goalies in the league and of the three you suggested, I wouldn’t put Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  (If you want a darkhorse candidate for who’s in net for New Jersey next year, it’s him in a cap dump from Florida if they can get him to waive his no-move clause.)  Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin are definitely in there and Juuse Saros has a chance to get into that group.  But in terms of elite, that’s about it.

Teams are beginning to embrace the platoon option more and more now which makes sense if they don’t have an elite or at least a higher-end starter.  It’s more cost-efficient and is a better hedge against in-season injuries.  New Jersey has tried to go that way the last couple of years and will likely stay on that path moving forward.

Johnny Z: NJ hinted at trading #2 OA. Do you think it could be offered for a player such as Fiala or Willie Nylander?

The speculation about New Jersey’s openness to move their first-round pick came before the Draft Lottery when their pick sat fifth and could drop as low as seventh.  Things have changed since then with them winning the second draw, giving them the second pick.  Now, they have a chance to get a core piece in the draft, either a winger like Juraj Slafkovsky or a defenseman like Simon Nemec or David Jiricek (assuming Montreal takes Shane Wright).  That jump of a few spots really changes the outlook.  If you can get a long-term core piece that should be NHL-ready fairly soon, they’re probably going to be better off keeping the pick.

For me, to even consider trading the pick, I’d want someone either signed or under team control for at least four years, someone that’s going to be part of their long-term core.  William Nylander has two years left on his contract and with how contentious his last contract talks went, there’s little reason to think he’d sign an early extension so there would be a risk to acquiring him in such a move.  It’s possible they could work out a long-term agreement with Kevin Fiala as part of a deal but if management thinks Slafkovsky can produce at a similar level, why not keep the pick and take him instead?

Never say never but there’s a reason teams very seldom trade top picks, let alone trading out of the draft entirely.  They’ll certainly listen to what’s out there but I’d be surprised if that trend changes with the Devils this summer.

2012 orioles: What are the most realistic destinations for Trotz?

Player free agency doesn’t happen for a couple more months but coaching free agency just got a whole lot more interesting when Lou Lamoriello made Barry Trotz available.  He’s probably going to wind up with a raise on the $4MM that he was getting with New York (and is still owed until he finds a new team) and plenty of job security in the form of a long-term deal.

In terms of who is a realistic fit for him, Vegas is the first team that comes to mind.  They’ve set the bar high and Trotz is a coach that has plenty of pedigree and a good playoff track record.  Both of those appeal to an organization like the Golden Knights.  And if the Golden Knights are worried about how things went down with Robin Lehner down the stretch, what better move could they make by bringing in his coach from his best NHL season (2018-19)?  He’s a splashy hire and would give them a boost while they have the willingness to spend big to get him.  I’d handicap them as the top contender as a result.

Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher believes the core of his team is still good enough to contend and will go into this offseason with an eye on a quick turnaround.  Trotz is the type of coach that could them back to the playoffs so they’ll be in the mix.  Detroit GM Steve Yzerman has talked about wanting more defensive structure so they’ll kick the tires as well although Jim Montgomery still feels like the best fit to me.  With Rick Bowness stepping down in Dallas, I’m sure they’ll also have interest although I’m not sure ownership will want to pay what it will cost to bring Trotz in.

The big wild card here is Winnipeg.  Trotz is a Winnipeg native and the chance to coach his hometown team has to be appealing.  They’re in a similar situation as Philadelphia in that they have a roster that underachieved but could plausibly get back in the hunt with the right coach.  Speculatively on my part, if Trotz has interest in being a GM down the road, could he sign on as coach for a few years and then potentially move into the front office with Kevin Cheveldayoff moving up to team president (assuming he’s still around by then)?  The Jets probably won’t be able to offer top dollar though.

Basically, every team with an opening is going to at least call.  It wouldn’t surprise me if a team or two that doesn’t have an opening quietly interviews Trotz anyway.  But right now, Vegas seems like the most realistic landing spot with Philadelphia and Winnipeg being in that next tier of options.

Y2KAK: When do the Maple Leafs win a first-round series? 2023? 2025? 2040?

Put me in the crew that thinks this core can still get there soon.  They played a solid series against Tampa Bay and the final game was basically a coin flip.  They didn’t get over the hump but this was far from choking away the series victories they could (and frankly, should) have had in the past.  As a result, I wouldn’t drastically shake things up this summer if I were the Leafs.

If that’s the course that GM Kyle Dubas pursues, then it’s quite possible they get over that hump next year.  Boston may take a step back depending on what happens with their captain, Florida’s roster won’t be as strong as it is now, and Tampa Bay is going to be squeezed by the cap as well.

Nothing is a guarantee and the questions are going to linger throughout the summer and into next season, as they should.  But I’m pretty confident that this core is going to get through a round if it stays together.  It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if that happened next season.

ckw: With the questionable coaching from Hynes and moves by Poile, where do you think the Preds go from here? Two forty-goal scorers, a record season by Josi and a Vezina-caliber goalie in Saros, and an arguable Calder trophy finalist they still could barely squeak into the playoffs.

A commonly-used phrase in sports is when a team is ‘spinning its wheels’.  That’s a sentiment that I think applies pretty well to Nashville.

First things first, I was quite impressed with their season as I didn’t think they’d come close to making the playoffs.  Even though they went out quickly, the fact they even got there surprised me with the moves they made over the summer.

But here’s the thing.  The Predators are good enough to hang around the edge of the playoff mix.  But how much more upside does their core group have?  It’s probably not much, certainly not enough to catapult them into contender status.  But they’re also not in a spot where they can really embrace a rebuild as some of their bigger contracts (Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen) aren’t easy to move.  If Filip Forsberg re-signs, he’ll be in that salary tier as well.

With the two-year extension given to Hynes, it’s a signal that they’re going to stay on this path for the time being.  So where do they go from here?  If Forsberg sticks around, they’re probably bringing a very similar team back to the one that finished this season unless they get the green light to spend closer to the cap ceiling which could allow them to add a player or two.  That will have them either just in the playoffs or just out which is basically where they’ve been the last three years.  They’re in that mushy middle and don’t appear to be changing course.  From a sports perspective, they’re spinning their wheels.

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The Duke: Oh mighty & all-knowing PHR Crystal Ball, 3 quickies for you here: 1. Where will Evander play next season? 2. Do Seth Jarvis and Alexander Holtz get Top-6 play – and which one has the brighter scoring future? And 3. Does UPL begin his starting assignment next season? Thanks in advance – but then, you already knew I’d thank you.

1) Edmonton certainly will want to re-sign Evander Kane although fitting him in doesn’t seem plausible.  Given his situation, he’s likely going to be looking for the biggest financial commitment and that’s not going to be the Oilers.  My first thought when I saw this question was Los Angeles, a team that has cap space at their disposal with Dustin Brown retiring, plus good veteran leaders like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty to take some of the heat off.  Lots will change in terms of who the free agent players could be by mid-July so for now, I’ll go with them.

2) If you’re asking about next season, I’d be leery of putting Jarvis in the top six.  Carolina will have less depth next year but it’ll still be good enough for them to use him on the third line more regularly than the second.  As for Holtz, I think he will see a lot of top-six minutes next season unless the Devils go and add a couple of wingers this summer in free agency or on the trade market.  There’s no contractual advantage to holding him down now (they gained a year of team control by keeping him under ten NHL games this season) and with the way he played in Utica, he’s close to ready.  From a long-term perspective, Holtz has top-line upside while I think Jarvis tops out as a second-liner so Holtz should have the brighter future.

3) I expect to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the NHL next season on a regular basis.  But I’m not as certain that he’s the starter.  It has been suggested they’d like to retain Craig Anderson to ease some of the pressure of Luukkonen and whether it’s him or another veteran, they’re going to handle a fairly big workload, especially since the youngster hasn’t really had heavy action in the minors due to injuries.  I think he falls somewhere within the 35-45 games played range which is more of a platoon goalie than a clear-cut starter in 2022-23.

W H Twittle: Does Hextall’s tenure in Philadelphia tell us anything about how he intends to manage the UFA situation in Pittsburgh?

Hextall’s biggest UFA signing in terms of newcomers was James van Riemsdyk but in terms of AAV, his next biggest was Evgeni Medvedev at $3MM.  There was plenty of lower-end activity though.  As for re-signings, he handed Jakub Voracek eight years and $66MM so he isn’t against spending big to keep someone either.  He just handed out a six-year deal to a 30-year-old as well with yesterday’s Bryan Rust contract.

What can we glean from that and apply to Pittsburgh’s situation?  Not much, if anything.  At this point, the goal will be to keep as much talent in the fold as possible so they’ll try to keep Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin, and trade deadline acquisition Rickard Rakell.  Of course, there will be limits to what they can offer but that will be more dictated by their cap situation than Hextall’s own beliefs and limitations when it comes to free agency.

I’m really intrigued to see what happens with the Penguins and how many of their free agents they’ll be able to keep, especially since it doesn’t seem like they can afford to keep Malkin and Letang now without both signing team-friendly deals.  But I don’t think we can really apply anything that happened with Hextall when he ran the Flyers to predict what will happen with Pittsburgh this summer.

Red Wings: Any chance Quenneville is back with the Panthers next season?

I’d put those odds between slim and nil and slim just left the building.  This isn’t a case like Alex Cora with the Boston Red Sox where he served his penalty from Houston’s sign-stealing scandal, got rehired, and things largely went on as if nothing of consequence happened.  The gravity of what happened back with Chicago is much steeper than that and certainly not enough time has passed for him to realistically be considered as a candidate to be hired anywhere, let alone with Florida.  The fact that he has yet to apply for reinstatement from the league at the time when the coaching market is in full flight is a pretty telling sign that he doesn’t expect to be considered for any vacancies this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

May 20, 2022 at 2:20 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 38 Comments

The first round is complete and many teams are facing significant questions about their future. How do you bounce back from another first-round exit? Which managers and coaches are now on the hot seat? What will happen to those deadline rentals that were unable to provide any postseason push? The offseason is right around the corner and things are starting to get exciting.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag. Last time, it was split into two parts. The first included a discussion about Ryan Ellis’ future in Philadelphia, Evander Kane’s ongoing grievance with the Sharks, and touched on a potential Kevin Fiala offer sheet. The second looked at Filip Forsberg’s pending free agency, the mess that the Golden Knights find themselves in, and some buyout candidates for this summer.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend and we will try to answer as many questions as possible.

PHR Mailbag| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

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