Arbitration Breakdown: Petr Mrazek
The Red Wings and goaltender Petr Mrazek have exchanged their arbitration numbers in advance of Wednesday’s scheduled hearing and suffice it to say, there is quite a gap between the two sides. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Detroit has submitted a two year offer worth $2.7MM in year one and $3.15MM in year two. Meanwhile, Mrazek has countered with a two year pact worth $5MM in both seasons.
[For more background on the arbitration process, consult Parts One and Two of our Capology 101: Arbitration series.]
Last season was a career year for the 24 year old Mrazek. He became Detroit’s starting goalie for most of the year, playing in 54 games. He compiled a 27-16-6 record with a 2.33 GAA and a .921 SV% with four shutouts. Mrazek ranked in the top half league-wide in terms of wins (T-13th), GAA (13th), and SV% (T-10th) among goalies that played at least 30 games which filters out most backup netminders.
Mrazek doesn’t have a whole lot of NHL experience under his belt in his career though as he has just a total of 94 career appearances. That makes this a particularly intriguing case as Mrazek is looking to earn starters money while being a #1 for basically just one full season. It also has a lot to do with the sizable gap in the two offers.
While it has no bearing on the arbitration case itself, it’s worth noting that the Red Wings have Jimmy Howard under contract for three more years at a cap hit just shy of $5.3MM. Their willingness or lack thereof to have both goalies on big money, multi-year deals could very likely impact contract negotiations.
Of the players in this process, Mrazek was the only player to not file for arbitration. Instead, Detroit opted to take him to arbitration. Players can only be subject to club-elected arbitration once in their careers so the Wings cannot pursue this route again in future offseasons.
Mrazek’s Stats
2015-16: 54 GP, 27-16-6 record, 2.33 GAA, .921 SV%, 4 shutouts
Career: 94 GP, 49-27-6 record, 2.29 GAA, .920 SV%, 9 shutouts
Potential Comparables
Jake Allen (St. Louis) – Four years, $17.4MM ($4.35MM AAV) – commencing in 2017-18
2015-16: 47 GP, 26-15-3 record, 2.35 GAA, .920 SV%, 6 shutouts
Career: 99 GP, 57-26-7 record, 2.34 GAA, .915 SV%, 11 shutouts
Frederik Andersen (Toronto) – Five years, $25MM ($5MM AAV) – commencing in 2016-17
2015-16: 43 GP, 22-9-7 record, 2.30 GAA, .919 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career: 125 GP, 77-26-12 record, 2.33 GAA, .918 SV%, 6 shutouts
Corey Crawford (Chicago) – Three years, $8MM ($2.67MM AAV) – from 2011-12 to 2013-14
2010-11: 57 GP, 33-18-6 record, 2.30 GAA, .917 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career as of ‘10-‘11: 65 GP, 34-21-7 record, 2.33 GAA, .917 SV%, 5 shutouts
(The salary cap is $9.7MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed. In 2011, Crawford’s deal was 4.5% of the cap. 4.5% of the current salary cap is roughly $3.3MM.)
Devan Dubnyk (Edmonton) – Two years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV) – from 2012-13 to 2013-14
2011-12: 47 GP, 20-20-3 record, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, 2 shutouts
Career as of ‘11-‘12: 101 GP, 36-43-13 record, 2.85 GAA, .910 SV%, 4 shutouts
(The salary cap is $13MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed. In 2012, Dubnyk’s deal was 5.8% of the cap. 5.8% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.25MM.)
Jaroslav Halak (St. Louis) – Four years, $15MM ($4.25MM AAV) – from 2010-11 to 2013-14
2009-10: 45 GP, 26-13-5 record, 2.40 GAA, .924 SV%, 5 shutouts
Career as of ‘09-‘10: 101 GP, 56-34-7 record, 2.61 GAA, .919 SV%, 9 shutouts
(The salary cap is $13.6MM higher now than it was when the deal was signed. In 2010, Halak’s deal was 6.3% of the cap. 6.3% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.6MM.)
The above players are at least somewhat comparable both in terms of their platform (most recent) season as well as their career numbers. One other short-term contract comparable doesn’t have the ideal platform year to compare to but the career numbers are quite similar.
Tuukka Rask (Boston) – One year, $3.5MM – for the 2012-13 season
2011-12: 23 GP, 11-8-3 record, 2.05 GAA, .929 SV%, 3 shutouts
Career as of 2011-12: 102 GP, 47-35-11 record, 2.20 GAA, .917 SV%, 11 shutouts
(The salary cap is $13MM higher now than it was at the time the deal was signed. In 2012, Rask’s deal was 5.8% of the cap. 5.8% of the current salary cap is roughly $4.25MM.)
Projection
The submissions show the difference in where each side feels Mrazek is. Detroit appears to want Mrazek to take more of a ‘prove it’ contract at a rate closer to that of a platoon goalie. Meanwhile, Mrazek and his reps feel that after a couple of years of above average goaltending (one as a starter, the other as more of a backup) that he’s worthy of the bigger ticket contract.
The comparables seem to favor Mrazek here. Goalies with basically one year as a starter and roughly 100 games of career NHL experience are getting sizable contracts in their post-bridge deals so it’s conceivable that Mrazek will get one here too. It’s going to be a two year contract at Mrazek’s request (since it was club-elected arbitration) and we project he’ll receive a deal that will line up with many of the comparables here. We project a contract where he’ll earn $4MM in year one and $4.25MM in year two for a cap hit of $4.125MM.
Arbitration Tracker
Ten days ago, the NHLPA released the schedule for player and team-elected arbitration hearings. Since then, four hearing dates have come and gone with no hearings, with eight players agreeing to contracts to avoid the unpleasant process.
Here’s an updated list of all 24 players who were scheduled for an arbitration hearing:
Player Elected Filings:
Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – Stone and the tough-negotiating Coyotes have a hearing set for August 4.
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – Hearing set for July 29. Barrie has been the subject of near-constant trade rumors this summer.
Mikhail Grigorenko – Agreed to a one-year, $1.3MM contract on July 20, just two days before the scheduled hearing.
Detroit Red Wings
Jared Coreau – Agreed to a two-year, $1.25MM contract on July 6, well before any hearings were scheduled.
Danny DeKeyser – Signed a six-year deal on July 26th, locking him up long-term for the Red Wings.
Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – The Wild signed Schroeder to a one-year, two-way deal on July 23rd worth $675K in the NHL and $275K in the AHL.
Nashville Predators
Petter Granberg – Signed a two-year, two-way deal worth $575K / $175K (300K guaranteed) in the first year, and $650K / $175K in the second.
Calle Jarnkrok – Signed a six-year, $12MM deal July 27th.
New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – Signed a two-year, $5.2MM deal Friday afternoon, hours after Kreider.
Chris Kreider – The Rangers and Kreider agreed to a four-year, $18.5MM contract Friday morning, beating the scheduled 9am arbitration meeting.
Dylan McIlrath – The massive defender signed a one-year, $800k contract last week, beating his hearing by a week.
J.T. Miller – World Cup-bound Miller and the Rangers settled on a two-year, $2.75MM contract on July 13.
Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – After a long negotiation, the Senators and Hoffman agreed to a four-year, $20.75MM deal on July 27th.
Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – Manning got an unexpected second year in his two-year, $1.95MM deal he signed on July 26th.
Brayden Schenn – Schenn and the Flyers agreed to a four-year deal worth $5.125MM AAV.
Jordan Weal – Acquired by the Flyers in the Vincent Lecavalier trade, Weal signed a one-year, two-way, $650K contract the day the arbitration schedule was released.
St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – The Blues signed their young star to a five-year, $5.5MM contract last week.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – The clutch playoff performer signed a long-term extension over the weekend, agreeing to $4.45MM per year for seven seasons.
Vladislav Namestnikov – World Cup-bound forward signed a two-year deal worth $1.9375MM on July 26th, three days before arbitration hearing.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – Toronto signed Corrado to a one-year, one-way deal worth $600K on July 25.
Peter Holland – Holland signed a one-year deal worth $1.3MM on July 25.
Martin Marincin – The promising young shut-down defenseman is scheduled for arbitration on August 2.
Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – Johansson agreed to a three-year, $4.58MM contract just minutes before his hearing was set to begin.
CLUB ELECTED FILINGS:
Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – Just before his hearing on July 27th, Mrazek and the Red Wings inked a two-year, $8MM deal. With Jimmy Howard still earning $5.3MM for next season, the duo is one of the more expensive in the league.
We’ve previously explained the arbitration process as part of our Capology 101 series. Check out our Mike Furlano’s articles on eligibility and the arbitration process.
Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule
The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide. Here is the full schedule:
PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS
Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016
Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016
Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016
Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016
Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016
New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016
Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016
Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016
St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016
Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016
Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016
Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016
CLUB ELECTED FILINGS
Detroit Red Wings
Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016
Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?
This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining. Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.
According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:
- Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
- $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
- $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
- $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
- $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
- $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
- Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.
With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.
The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.
Why could that be?
The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.
It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.
So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.
Snapshots: Brent, Mrazek, Kings, Datsyuk
Veteran forward Tim Brent has decided to retire, reports Bill Doucet of the Cambridge Times. The 32 year old is beginning his post-hockey career in real estate in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he spent part of his career. Brent spent parts of seven seasons in the NHL with Anaheim (who twice drafted him), Pittsburgh, Chicago, Toronto, and Carolina, where he last played in 2012-13. Overall, he played in 207 NHL games, recording 21 goals and 27 assists.
Other news and notes from around the NHL:
- Detroit opted to take goalie Petr Mrazek to arbitration earlier this week and as George Malik of Kukla’s Korner writes, there’s a sizable gap between the two sides at the moment. Mrazek is apparently seeking close to $6MM while the Wings are offering closer to half that amount. Despite that, Mrazek’s camp is hopeful that they can get a deal done without going through the arbitration process. Arbitration hearings will take place between July 20th and August 4th.
- While the Kings were looking to make organizational changes after being ousted in the first round of the playoffs, the majority of them have come off the ice in terms of small philosophical changes, writes Josh Cooper of Puck Daddy. Given their relative cap constraints (they have just shy of $1.8MM in space according to Cap Friendly), Los Angeles has only been able to add Jeff Zatkoff, Tom Gilbert, Zach Trotman, and Teddy Purcell, only the latter of which can be viewed as a potential impact addition.
- The widely anticipated Pavel Datsyuk contract with SKA St. Petersburg was officially announced by the KHL team today as the Coyotes have approved and signed his player transfer card. It’s a two year deal believed to be worth roughly $7.6MM US. Though he will play in Russia and won’t be paid by Arizona, the Coyotes will still be charged for his entire cap hit of $7.5MM for 2016-17.
Wings Notes: Mrazek, Howard, DeKeyser
When the list of 24 players who filed for arbitration was released by the NHLPA yesterday, the absence of certain names stuck out like a sore thumb. As we touched on, young Detroit netminder Petr Mrazek was among the most prominent names that were left off.
Now, Ken Campbell of The Hockey News reports in his latest column that the Red Wings are likely to take Mrazek to arbitration themselves, filing before today’s deadline of 6pm. Detroit was the only NHL team to take a player to arbitration by today’s deadline. For more on how the arbitration process works, check out the first part of our guide. Here are more notes from Campbell’s column:
- As Mrazek deals with his arbitration uncertainty, the other goalie in the Motor City is unsure of his future with the club as well. Campbell tells us that Ken Holland has said trading Jimmy Howard would be “good for the organization”. Earlier this summer, we reported that Holland has also said Mrazek will definitely be the Wings’ number one goalie this season, meaning that Howard – and his $5.3MM cap hit – may find himself playing somewhere else in 2016-17.
- It sounds much more positive on the Danny DeKeyser front however, as Campbell reports that the star blueliner is close to a deal with the club that will pay him somewhere in the $5MM range. DeKeyser filed for arbitration yesterday, but can still negotiate with the team until his hearing. After three solid seasons in the NHL, DeKeyser is looking to sign a long-term deal with his home town team.
NHL Players Not Electing Salary Arbitration
24 players elected salary arbitration today, which means that 48 players eligible for salary arbitration elected not to go that route. While those remaining players might still be brought to arbitration by their team via club-elected salary arbitration, teams only have until tomorrow at 5pm to do so.
Most of the 48 players refraining from player-elected salary arbitration are AHL-dwellers, but a few have NHL experience. The following is a list of players with at least 10 NHL game experience who did not elect salary arbitration.
Fredrick Claesson – OTT
Nick Cousins – PHI
Stefan Elliot – NSH
Dennis Everberg – COL
Marcus Foligno – BUF
Derek Forbort – LA
Freddie Hamilton – CGY
Joey Hishon – COL
Sergey Kalinin – NJ
Petr Mrazek – DET
Jamie Oleksiak – DAL
Dmitry Orlov – WSH
Teemu Pulkkinen – DET
Max Reinhart – CGY
Jiri Sekac – ARI
Brody Sutter – CAR
The most interesting player not electing arbitration is Detroit goalie Petr Mrazek. The Czech goaltender took over the number one role in Detroit over Jimmy Howard last season, starting 49 games and going 27-16-6 with a .921 SV% and a 2.33 GAA. Mrazek is expected to compete for the starting job next season, and represents a cheaper option for Detroit between the pipes than the veteran Jimmy Howard.
Confused about the arbitration process? See our guide on the arbitration basics.
Snapshots: Anisimov, Mrazek, Gaudreau
The NHL released the home openers for many teams on Monday morning – Ben Whyte of The Score compiled a list of those announced. Among the highlights is the Stanley Cup Champion Penguins raising the 2015-16 banner in front of their rival Washington Capitals on October 13th. The league is set to release the full schedules for the 2016-17 season on Tuesday morning. Here is some more news from around the league:
- Cap Friendly reports that Artem Anisimov of the Blackhawks actually has a no-movement clause (NMC) for the next two seasons. Not only does this limit the options Chicago has this offseason, but makes Anisimov an automatic protection in next year’s expansion draft.
- While speaking to Torie Peterson, Flames’ GM Brad Treliving intimated that he’ll eventually get deals done with top RFAs Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. “We’ll continue to bang away at it. We’ve got to get to something that makes sense for them and for us…I have every confidence that we will.”
- TB Times writer Joe Smith says that UFA Jonathan Marchessault “loves the place” and “wants to stay” in Tampa Bay this summer. Marchessault put up 18 points last season and is only 25.
- Matt Brown, producer of Sportsnet’s Hockey Central @ Noon reports that Ken Holland said Petr Mrazek will be the Red Wings’ #1 goaltender coming into camp this season. Mrazek played in 54 games for the Red Wings this past year, but is sure to earn less than Jimmy Howard‘s $5.29MM this season.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
The 2015-2016 Detroit Red Wings were a team in transition. Jeff Blashill took over a team that on paper, looked ready to build on their performance from 2014-2015 where they nearly upset eventual Eastern Conference Champion Tampa Bay. Instead, the Red Wings were an inconsistent bunch, struggling mightily on the power play, especially in the playoffs, and searching for an identity between their storied past, and their dynamic future, which includes budding superstar Dylan Larkin. The Red Wings were bounced in five games by the Lightning in the first round, and general manager Ken Holland found himself facing a restless fanbase and crucial offseason.
Cap Space: $11,073,789 according to CapFriendly. This number will change if Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract is moved to another team. Additionally, the Red Wings are looking at a number of trades to free up room.
Key UFAs: Darren Helm. The 29-year-old center has been with the Red Wings for his entire career, first making an impact during the Wings 2008 Stanley Cup run. Helm has blazing speed and is a huge factor on the penalty kill. After having a career year in 2014-2015, Helm posted numbers a bit below with 26 points. (13-13). The Red Wings expected Helm to show a consistency in scoring, but the lack of a scoring touch has been missing from Helm’s game, especially on breakaways. Helm has already been offered a contract, but with the emergence of speedster Andreas Athanasiou and Larkin, Helm’s loss wouldn’t be devastating should they not come to terms.
Other UFAs Forwards Brad Richards, Drew Miller, and Joakim Andersson. Defenseman Kyle Quincey.
Key RFAs: D Danny DeKeyser, and G Petr Mrazek. DeKeyser was expected to be a top 4 defenseman in Detroit and might be paid as such. With Niklas Kronwall aging, and the core of Detroit’s defense disappointing, DeKeyser is seen as a steady presence who can log more minutes. Mrazek is a completely different case. With over $5.2MM invested in Jimmy Howard, Mrazek is widely seen as the #1 goalie in Detroit and will be compensated as such. The Red Wings have already started shopping Howard to free up money for Mrazek. The 23-year-old Czech was stellar between the pipes, and is seen as the caliber of a goalie who can steal games. In the regular season, Mrazek won 27 games and had a .921 save percentage.
Other RFAs: F Teemu Pulkkinen, D Alexey Marchenko.
For several seasons now, Ken Holland has swung and missed with trades and free agency. The Red Wings are no longer the dominant team they once were, and are clearly in transition with young players like Athanasiou, Larkin, and Anthony Mantha looking to take over. Holland vowed to make changes. His first order of business will be determining what to do with Datsyuk’s contract. After that, the pressure is on Holland to reshape the roster into one that will bring the Red Wings back to dominance.
Pavel Datsyuk Not Returning To Detroit
Accoring to former NHLer Aaron Ward, and confirmed by TSN’s Darren Dreger, Pavel Datsyuk will hold a press conference tomorrow to announce he will not return to the Detroit Red Wings. Detroit will now look to move his contract to another team, in order to get out from under the $7.5MM cap-hit his contract will incur due to being signed after his 35th birthday.
Datsyuk has long been considering heading back to his home in Russia to play out his final hockey years in the KHL and be closer to family. The 37-year old has scored 314 goals and 918 points in his surely hall-of-fame career, winning two Stanley Cups along the way. He was awarded the Lady Byng Memorial Trophy for sportsmanship four times, while collecting the Frank J. Selke, awarded to the league’s top defensive forward, three times.
Datsyuk’s departure will leave a hole not easily filled in the Detroit lineup, as even at his advanced age his presence on the ice was important. He scored 49 points this season, a down one by his standards, but still logged over 19 minutes a night playing against the oppositions top lines. Centres like Riley Sheahan, who recently re-signed for two seasons, and Dylan Larkin will now be relied on more heavily on game nights. Henrik Zetterberg, the last bastion of a past era of Detroit excellence will continue to lead the team, now without his longtime partner in crime.
If the Red Wings can move Datsyuk’s contract, it will give them some much needed cap relief, as the team currently sits at just over $60MM in salary for only 16 players, with notable restricted free agents Petr Mrazek and Danny DeKeyser still to sign.