Potential Buyout Options
NHL fans are looking ahead to an offseason which will likely see a lot of movement, but will also feature teams tight up against a stagnant cap ceiling. Buyouts are always an option teams will weigh, although certainly an avenue of last resort. Dumping a contract isn’t as simple as taking the player’s salary off the books. They will count as 1/3 or 2/3 of the original cap hit, for twice the remaining years on that contract. So if a 26 year old player has two years remaining at $3 MM, he will cost $1 MM for four years against the team’s cap total. That means a substantial savings of $2 MM, but is a habit GMs will not want to fall into. For players over 26, the 2/3 rule applies, and that same player would count for $2 MM each of the next four seasons. In such a scenario, the savings are rarely worth it. However, teams can be backed into this corner when trade options completely vanish.
For the 2017 offseason, there is an extra component at play – the expansion draft. Players with full No-Movement Clauses must be protected by their team, exposing potentially better, younger, cheaper options to selection by the Vegas Golden Knights. Prior to the expansion draft, on June 15-17th, there will be a buyout window. Consequently, there will most likely be at least one case where a player who otherwise would not have been bought out will be due to a team’s long-term prospects. This certainly isn’t what the NHLPA had hoped for when they agreed to another 20+ players in the league with the expansion of Vegas, but is an unfortunate unforeseen consequence. Here are just some of the players who could be facing the buyout option this summer:
Antti Niemi – Dallas Stars
Both Niemi and fellow goalie Kari Lehtonen should be expecting this fate. With Ben Bishop signing a massive six-year contract with Dallas, their time as starters in this league look all but complete. Both are paid an asburd amount of money, but Niemi’s $4.5 MM is the more unpalatable total. His .892 save percentage through 37 games this year was only edged in ineptitude by Michal Neuvirth among tenders who got more than 15 starts. At his pricetag he is virtually unmoveable, and with only one year remaining on his contract, the hit would be worth it for 2 seasons to keep him away from the team.
Kevin Bieksa – Anaheim Ducks
Bieksa might seem an odd inclusion on this list, considering his age, but it should be remembered that he has a No-Movement Clause, meaning he would need to be protected by the Ducks. Needing to also protect Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler, and Hampus Lindholm, even under the 8 player protection model, this would likely expose Josh Manson. Considering his play in this post-season, and Bieksa’s complete inability to remain healthy, this is a darkhorse candidate for a last-minute buyout. Bieksa’s Corsi is the worst on the backend for his team and his skating has looked quite problematic of late. The flare of his Vancouver days seems long past and with only one year remaining at $4 MM, he seems an easy target to eliminate.
Scott Hartnell – Columbus Blue Jackets
Hartnell is considered a gutsy character player, a net-front presence, and a veteran leader. However, he has seen his production shift from being that of a decent offensive threat (28 G, 32 A in 2014-15) to an average third liner (13 goals, 24 A in 2016-17). His problems run deeper, though, as his brand of physical hockey has taken its toll on his play. No longer quite the intimidating wrecking-ball of his Philadelphia days, Hartnell is not as effective on the forecheck as he once was. The reason he is included on this list, however, is because Columbus has a lot of young, promising players they will wish to protect in the expansion draft, and Hartnell has a No-Movement Clause. At 34 years old and in a quickly diminishing role, it will be difficult for GM Jarmo Kekalainen to save a space for Hartnell. With toughness adequately filled by hard-nosed forwards in Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno, and Brandon Saad, he seems even more superfluous. Assuming Dubinsky (NMC), Brandon Saad, Jenner, Foligno (NMC), Cam Atkinson, and Matt Calvert are protected, Hartnell’s inclusion would sacrifice the 24 year-old William Karlsson. That’s a difficult concession for the Jackets to make, even if the youngster took a step back offensively this season. If they would opt to buy out Hartnell’s contract at $4.75 MM, it would mean $3.16 MM in dead space for 4 more seasons, a hefty pill to swallow.
There are certain to be other candidates for buyouts as well, but these are three that could easily find themselves looking for a new contract come June 18th.
Expansion Notes: Bieksa, Sutter
The Anaheim Ducks have taken a 3-0 lead in the playoff series with the Calgary Flames, mostly due to the success of its defense (although perhaps not in the first 30 minutes of last night’s game. Los Angeles Times’ writer Helene Elliott praises the play of veteran defenseman Kevin Bieksa, who she says put in one of his best performances of the season.
However, while the 35-year-old blueliner has been playing well leading a young, talented defensive corps, there continue to be issues on how the Ducks will handle their offseason protection list in June.
Bieksa has a no movement clause, which will force the Ducks to use one of their four defensive spots on the veteran. The team already has a bunch of young blueliners who they must protect or potentially lose to the Las Vegas Golden Knights. Even with the team using the 4-4-1 option in the draft (four forwards, four defensemen and a goalie), the team is likely to protect Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen and Cam Fowler.
However, because of Bieksa’s no movement clause, they would be forced to expose several young defenders, including Josh Manson. The Ducks may be ready to move on from him next year, but that no movement clause, as well as his $5.0MM cap hit will definitely stand in their way, unless the team can convince him to waive that.
Will Anaheim be able to convince Bieksa to waive his no-trade clause? His recent playoff success might only complicate matters, but no one in Anaheim is complaining at the moment as the Ducks look towards a sweep of the Flames tomorrow in Game 4 in Calgary.
- The Vancouver Canucks have a similar issue about what to do with center Brandon Sutter, their veteran center. Many feel that Sutter has been a disappointment after a season in which he scored just 17 goals and 17 assists after signing a five-year deal in the offseason. That $4.375MM cap hit over the next four seasons makes many in Vancouver believe that they need to expose the high-priced center in the expansion draft or possibly trade him if that doesn’t work. Fansided Alex Hoegler suggests that the team should consider holding on to him, despite his disappointing first season. Sutter may not be proving to be a top-line center, however, but at age 28, he should be able to provide many 15-20 goals over the next four seasons and provide depth to a young team.
Editor’s Note: This article originally listed Brandon Montour as eligible for expansion. This is incorrect, as his 14 games in the AHL in 2014-15 were played under an amateur tryout and thus do not count towards his professional experience.