Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include forecasting the next contract for the top-scoring pending UFA, Buffalo’s turnaround, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have one more mailbag to come from our latest call for questions.
bigalval: Does Ken Holland have any clue what he’s doing? Rob Blake was bad and Holland’s moves have been puzzling at best.
Holland has been around long enough that I’m confident in saying he knows what he’s doing; there is a plan in place. His moves over the offseason clearly signaled that he was leaning into the team playing a slower, more deliberate game and that after being unable to land a big fish, he leaned into building up their depth. You can quibble with some of the moves made (and I’d say you’re probably right to do so) but I understand the method to the madness.
Then there’s the Artemi Panarin move. If you’re thinking that moving a first-round prospect in Liam Greentree to get him with a two-year extension doesn’t make sense for a bubble team, I get that. The rebuild is probably coming at some point; it can only be stalled so long. And with Los Angeles struggling mightily offensively, this might not have been the right time to take a big swing. Clearly, Holland believes that this group could do some damage in a Pacific Division that’s up for grabs; they just have to get there first.
That belief I suspect also shaped the decision to make a coaching change, even if it came a lot later than most would have expected. The results have been middling since D.J. Smith took over (not unlike how they were before) but there’s still time to win a few and really lock down a playoff spot. I like the approach to go with an interim coach in case they want to pivot to a different option over the summer and perhaps change their system a little more drastically.
So far, things have largely looked like more of the same under Holland despite a much higher volume of moves. But there’s a plan in place; I’m just not sure it’s necessarily the right one as again, that rebuild is bound to happen at some point and it wouldn’t shock me if it’s sooner than later.
lgr34561: Do you think this recent hot streak with Gabriel Perreault and more specifically Alexis Lafreniere is legit and something Rangers fans should be seriously optimistic about or just assume it’s Lafreniere just going on a short streak then back to his old ways?
Generally speaking, I try not to read too much into how players perform down the stretch when they’re on teams playing for nothing but pride. However, there’s still room for some optimism with how those two have performed as of late.
This month, Perreault has four goals and eight assists in 10 games. Perhaps more notably, he’s averaging over 18 minutes per game in March. Those are legitimate top-level reps that are going to help him beyond this season. The Rangers drafted Perreault with the hope that he can be an impactful top-six forward for them. I’m not sure he’s going to be fully ready to be that next season (a lot will depend on offseason moves as well) but this stretch suggests that he’s trending in the right direction to have that role.
As for Lafreniere, he has done this before, where he has a good stretch. However, he hasn’t followed that up by continuing it for an extended amount of time. He’s not going to have that chance here either with the season almost over. Don’t get me wrong, 14 points in 10 March games is nice to see but I’m not ready to think that this is the beginning of the long-awaited breakout. I think this But if GM Chris Drury is pondering trading the 24-year-old this summer, this performance certainly can’t hurt from a value standpoint.
FeeltheThunder: I already asked about Nikita Kucherov’s extension. Now, I must ask about Darren Raddysh. How do you think Tampa will approach the intriguing Raddysh conundrum? GM Julien BriseBois had recently stated he wants to keep Raddysh wearing a Bolts’ jersey after this season and Tampa will have an admirable amount of cap space this offseason ranging around $15 to $16 million. I feel Tampa will keep him, it’s just what is the final price and term going to be?
Also, Tampa didn’t get an extra RD at the trade deadline, so do you think they’ll search for an additional RD in the offseason of FA even with Raddysh, Cernak, and Crozier and if so, who might those prospects potentially be?
This might be the most fascinating contract of the offseason. Heading into the season, Raddysh looked like he was heading for a nice raise after back-to-back 30-plus-point years. Making $975K this season, if he landed in the $3.5MM range or so with his limited usage, that would have made sense for both sides.
But then this season happened. Raddysh doesn’t just lead all pending UFA defensemen in points but rather pending unrestricted free agents, period. He’s up to 60 points in as many games. And it’s not as if he’s still getting limited minutes either; he’s averaging close to 23 minutes per night and even seeing light penalty killing playing time. Being a right-shot defender with this type of output in a market where cap space exceeds the quality of players available and you have the perfect storm for a huge offer.
Given where things are, I could see a team, perhaps begrudgingly, offering $7.5MM per season for Raddysh, rationalizing that even if he winds up in the 45-50-point range next year, it could still age well. I don’t think Tampa Bay would be willing to go quite that high, even with their cap space and right-side situation. GM Julien BriseBois isn’t known for paying top dollar. I could see a long-term pact (six years or so) around $6MM or so being where the two sides ultimately settle where he leaves a bit on the table to stay but still gets life-changing money.
Assuming that they get Raddysh re-signed, I think they’ll be content enough with him and Cernak as their top two right-shot rearguards. I could see them looking for a third-pairing player that keeps Maxwell Crozier in a reserve role, however. Nick Jensen coming off an injury-riddled season is eligible for a one-year, bonus-laden deal. That feels like a good fit, giving him a soft landing spot to try to rebuild some value while possibly giving Tampa Bay some value for the role. A reunion with Luke Schenn could be a viable option as well.
FeeltheThunder: I want to add one more question here. I think Tampa should look for a new backup goaltender this offseason as Jonas Johansson is just way too hot and cold. I think if they bring in competition this offseason like a UFA in Matt Murray, for example, would be an improvement. Also, Tampa may need an AHL goaltender for Syracuse if they don’t bring back Brandon Halverson (which would be surprising) but they could have Johansson for that if so. What do you think of the whole situation?
For years now, the Lightning have been in a spot where they haven’t had a choice but to go with low-cost options. Some of that has been self-inflicted with their other moves but now, as you noted with your first question, they have a lot more cap flexibility this summer. I think they would benefit from upgrading on Johansson, it just comes down to how much more money they want to spend on the position. Murray is one who isn’t exactly the most consistent either but if they just wanted to bring in someone for competition (and waive the one who doesn’t make it), I could see that happening. And if so, that might push Halverson out.
Otherwise, I’d hope they’d aim a little higher and try to get someone who can maybe cover 25-30 games a season. With the increased minimum salary next season, they’d clear all but $25K of Johansson’s salary off the books with an AHL assignment so I think it’d be worth their while to explore it.
As for the AHL side, it feels like about a third of the veteran goalies bounce around from year to year. If Halverson leaves, there will be plenty of other AHL veterans to choose from so I wouldn’t worry too much about that situation. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if they look to an international goalie in free agency, a younger one that could see some time with the Crunch while trying to see if they can develop a future backup for a couple of years from now.
frozenaquatic: How do folks around the league view what Kevyn Adams built? Obviously, the Sabres are pretty strong, but they didn’t turn it around until he was fired. But that team was undeniably constructed by him. Does he, and should he, get any credit?
In the same breath, it seems like the Wings have begun to show cracks as they seem to do annually in March–losing Larkin for any amount of time exposes their reliance on his leadership. Do the Wings need to move on from Steve Yzerman to excise their own curse?
Daniel M: So, how about those Sabres, huh? Umm… Do we need to apologize for all the mean things we said about Kevyn Adams?
Boy, have things ever turned for the Sabres. For a time, it looked like they were heading for a spot near the bottom of the conference and now, they’re battling for first place in the East. They’ve been on quite the run since Adams was fired and really, beyond adding some depth at the trade deadline, Jarmo Kekalainen hasn’t exactly done a lot since taking over.
I find it hard to believe that the reason for their turnaround is the GM change. Maybe there’s some relief from no longer having the distraction about the speculation of the change happening but that isn’t enough to make them one of the top teams in the league since then. I think that reflects reasonably well on Adams.
Over the past few years, many have looked at this roster and wondered how they could be that bad. The roster was too good on paper to struggle this much; at some point, they had to turn things around. That’s what other teams should remember. In the end, the roster was pretty good. He should get some credit as a result. As for apologies, well, that’s more between him and Buffalo fans.
Onto Detroit. I think we’re getting to the point where if they fall out of the playoffs again that the question about Yzerman’s future should start to garner some consideration. There are some quality pieces on the roster and in the system, no doubt. But they’ve been out of the playoffs since 2016 so if they miss here, it’s a full decade between playoff appearances. That’s too long for a rebuild, even with some foundational pieces in place. I don’t think a change would be excising their curse, mind you, but rather bringing in a fresh face to add the final few pieces to the roster. Having said all that, they’re still very much in the thick of things and if they make it back to the postseason, this hypothetical will be all for naught.
Jolly Roger: When players are traded, do they receive any compensation for moving costs or any other type of compensation?
Players are entitled to be reimbursed for ‘reasonable moving expenses’ incurred, regardless of whether those costs are incurred during the season or after the season, as long as the player moves within 12 months of being traded. (A player might wait to move his family and incur the full costs until after the season and just live on his own until his season ends.) It includes the cost of moving two automobiles if the player has a spouse or living companion. There are also entitlements for penalties for early terminations of leases, utility cancellations, and costs for new documents such as a driver’s licence. The 2020 MOU also went as far as noting that these incidental costs must have valid receipts; a player can’t be reimbursed for estimates. The 2025 MOU limits reimbursement for incidental costs at $20K, moving up to $22.5K beginning in 2028-29.
Additionally, a traded player is to receive 21 days of single-room hotel accommodations following the move. Beyond that, traded players receive six months of rent or mortgage payments. The 2025 MOU sets the limit for 2026-27 at $6,200, increasing by $200 per season for the following three seasons. (And yes, they pro-rate for a player traded mid-month.)
Jolly Roger: When a player gets traded to a team that has played a different number of games, does his salary get adjusted? For example, if someone has to play 84 games instead of 82?
No. Players are paid on a per-day basis, not a per-game basis. This season, the NHL schedule (regular season only) spans 192 days. Let’s pick a hypothetical player making $2MM. He’s paid a daily salary of $10,416.67. It doesn’t matter if it’s a game day, a practice day, or a day off, he gets paid that daily rate. As long as that player is on the roster, that’s what he’s making, regardless of how many games he ultimately plays.
Jolly Roger: Does the CBA impose any restrictions on what coaches, trainers, and other personnel get paid?
There are no restrictions in the CBA in terms of maximums (or minimums) that off-ice personnel receive. The CBA governs things between the league and the players, not the support staff. This is one area where some of the bigger-market, higher-spending teams can get an edge. They can hire more coaches (and pay more), more scouts, invest more in analytics, etc. Some of those franchises have indeed gone in that direction but others have been more incremental in terms of adding extra personnel.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images.