Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5
While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.
There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.
5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)
The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.
With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.
It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.
The Disastrous Duty Of Drafting Defensemen
In professional sports, there is an oft-quoted saying that suggests that “defense wins championships”. It’s no surprise that in the NHL, the best of the best are getting extensions like Aaron Ekblad (8 years, $60MM) and Victor Hedman (8 years, $63MM). They’re valuable assets in a league that doesn’t have enough capable defenders.
Back in the summer, we looked at the increasing value of right-handed defensemen, with players like Jason Demers (5 years, $22.5MM), Ben Lovejoy (3 years $8MM) and Roman Polak (1 year, $2.25MM) all getting contracts that seemed expensive for their on-ice value.
Perhaps it’s not just the right-handed ones though. Prices for defensemen are skyrocketing on both the open market and in trade negotiations, and it’s because even though teams want to draft and develop their own blueliners, it’s incredibly difficult to do so.
In the 2007 entry draft, there were 60 defensemen selected and only 13 of them have played more than 200 NHL games. Even that group includes players like Keaton Ellerby, Ian Cole and Yannick Weber who would not inspire much confidence at the top of anyone’s depth chart (apologies to Cole, who is having a fine season in Pittsburgh).
In comparison this is actually a fairly good draft, as in 2006 just six out of the 65 defensemen chose have crossed that 200 games threshold. While 2006 is perhaps the most stark example, as Erik Johnson (drafted first overall) is the only high-end defenseman in the entire draft – his competition for that title are the likes of Andrew MacDonald, Jeff Petry and Mike Weber.
Drafting defensemen is even more of a crap shoot, as often they develop later than forwards and rely more on experience and positioning than raw skill. In 2006, eight were taken in the first round and only Johnson is still in the NHL. Ty Wishart, Bobby Sanguinetti and Chris Summers highlight the rest of the round.
This past draft nine defenders were taken in the first round, with Jakob Chychrun in Arizona and a three-game taste from Montreal’s Mikhail Sergachev being the only forays into the NHL so far. Obviously, it’s much too early to tell whether any of these will be long-term options, but the past seems to say that many won’t.
For teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oilers, whose fan bases and media members have said for years to ‘just draft a defenseman’, it’s much more difficult than it seems. Even using your first round pick on a blueliner does not guarantee success, or even an NHL player. It’s hard to find those elite defensemen, even if you sink your whole draft into them.
With only a few successful ones coming out each year, it’s no wonder players like Jacob Trouba and Cam Fowler have huge price tags on their heads. Their teams may never get a chance at a player of their caliber again (although, Anaheim seems to buck this trend and have success with a high number of defensive draft picks).
Coyotes Notes: Chychrun, Strome, Doan
Making the jump from junior to the NHL as an 18 year old is generally a tough task for pretty much anyone. Doing so as a defenseman is that much harder which is why it doesn’t happen all that often, especially for players picked outside the top five in the draft. Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun, the 16th overall pick back in June, is one who has bucked this trend and is the youngest blueliner in the league this season, something that doesn’t seem to faze him, writes Jonas Siegel of the Canadian Press. Part of the reason for that is that Chychrun doesn’t think of himself as a raw rookie:
“It’s cool and all, but I think I don’t really look at myself as a young kid. I kind of approach the game just as a pro would and I feel I’m mature beyond my years.”
The Coyotes have eased the 18 year old, who is the third youngest player overall in the league (only forwards Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine are younger), into the league, primarily using him in a third pairing role. Through 26 games this season, he has a goal and six assists while averaging 16:36 per night in ice time which is pretty good for an 18 year old rookie. He told Siegel that he is pleased with his progress so far:
“I feel I’ve done well to this point and I want to continue to get better. It’s crazy to be thrown in at 18 years old, but it’s something you have to take in stride, enjoy it.”
Arizona has been happy enough with his progress so far that they did not loan him to Team Canada for the upcoming World Juniors. (Although Chychrun was born in Boca Raton in Florida, he’s a dual citizen and has chosen to represent Canada internationally.)
More from the Coyotes:
- One Arizona youngster who will be at the World Juniors is center Dylan Strome. The third overall pick in 2015 made the team out of training camp but played sparingly and eventually was sent back to junior. He’ll captain the Canadian entry in the tournament and is looking forward to trying to make amends for last year, he told Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star. “Being on the losing end of a tournament is not very fun. You feel like you’ve let your country down. You want to forget about it at as fast as possible, but it doesn’t go away very quickly. I’m fortunate to have the opportunity to make amends for what happened last year.”
- Friday’s game against Toronto not only was a big night for Arizona native Auston Matthews, it was also a big one for one of the players he grew up idolizing in Coyotes captain Shane Doan. The 40 year old played in his 1,500th career NHL game, the 17th player in league history to do that. Of those players, he’s only the sixth to do so with the same organization; Doan was originally drafted by Winnipeg in 1995 with them moving to Phoenix in 1996. He also picked up his 400th career goal in the game, a 4-1 loss to the Leafs. Speaking with Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic, Doan is very appreciative of the fact he’s been able to play his whole career with the franchise: “Yeah, that’s something that I appreciate. Like I said, there’s a lot of guys that given the opportunity would be able to. But having been given the opportunity that I’ve been given, I’m very grateful the organization has been willing to keep letting me get a jersey and giving me a jersey every year.”
Snapshots: Desjardins, Fisher, Gilbert, Chychrun
Darren Dreger’s been making the radio rounds of late and today, while appearing on Ottawa’s TSN 1200, among many notes the NHL insider discussed was the suggestion that Vancouver bench boss Willie Desjardins could soon find himself on the hot seat if the Canucks can’t right the ship in short order. Dreger was clear that he didn’t believe that was the case as of this moment but the organization believes it has a roster capable of making the playoffs and if the team falls further out of the race, they could decide to make a change behind the bench.
“I’m not suggesting he’s on the hot seat today as we have this conversation. But Jim Benning, the general manager, had a much higher view of where he thought this team was coming out of training camp. He told many that he believed that the Vancouver Canucks are a playoff team and would definitely contend for a playoff spot. And they’re not playing that way right now.”
The Canucks got off to a surprisingly strong start winning their first four games but have since lost five straight to even their record at 4 – 4 – 1. Offense. or rather a lack of, is the biggest issue in Vancouver as the team is last in the league in goal scoring, averaging just 1.78 per contest. Their power play is also among the worst in the NHL converting just 10.7% of their opportunities, which ranks 26th overall.
The team invested heavily in skilled Swedish winger Loui Eriksson, to the tune of a six-year, $36MM contract this offseason but the former Bruin has failed to find the back of the net in nine games with Vancouver. Bo Horvat leads the club in goals with four but only five players have tallied more than once this season. At the other end of the scoring spectrum, the New York Rangers lead the league averaging four goals per contest with 10 players who have at least two markers on the campaign.
Chris Nichols of Today’s Slapshot relays a quote from Pierre LeBrun indicating the Canucks would like to pull the trigger on a deal for a proven 20-goal scorer, assuming they can find a trade partner. They’ve been rumored to be in that market since the summer but aside from inking Eriksson the Canucks have done little in the way of adding impact offensive talent.
Desjardins is in his third season as coach of the Canucks and owns a career mark of 83 – 71 -19. He guided the team to a 101-point season and a second place finish in the Pacific Division in 2014-15, his first as bench boss. Last season, Vancouver dropped 26 points in the standings and placed sixth in their division. Prior to being hired in Vancouver, Desjardins served as head coach of the Dallas Stars AHL affiliate and guided them to the Calder Cup championship in 2014.
Elsewhere around the league:
- Mike Fisher, who was injured in Tuesday’s 5 – 1 win over Colorado, is being listed as day-to-day with an upper-body-injury, tweets Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. Fisher, who replaced Shea Weber as Nashville’s captain, is tied for second on the club in scoring with five points in eight games. Now in his 17th season in the NHL, Fisher has scored 261 goals with 287 assists in 1,024 contests.
- According to the NHL Department of Player Safety (Twitter link) Los Angeles Kings defenseman Tom Gilbert will face a hearing for his hit on Nick Ritchie of the Anaheim Ducks Tuesday night. No penalty was assessed on the play but the league indicated the hearing is for boarding/charging. Eric Stephens of The Orange County Register provides an update on Ritchie and says the big winger won’t be in Anaheim’s lineup tonight as the Ducks host Pittsburgh. Gilbert has appeared in eight of L.A.’s 10 games this season and has recorded three points. Ritchie, meanwhile, has scored two goals and three points in 10 contests with Anaheim.
- The Arizona Coyotes have elected to keep rookie defenseman Jakob Chychrun on the roster instead of returning the 18-year-old blue liner to his junior team, according to Craig Morgan of Arizona Sports. As a result, Chychrun will burn the first season of his three-year entry-level contract. The Coyotes made a trade with Detroit during the 2016 entry draft to move up four spots to select Chychrun and so far has rewarded management’s faith. Chychurn has averaged 17:15 of ice time and has three points in eight games so far.
The Dylan Strome Situation
Dylan Strome is one of five rookies who made the 2016-17 Arizona Coyotes roster, joining D Jakob Chychrun, F Christian Dvorak, F Laurent Dauphin and F Lawson Crouse. Strome, the third overall pick in 2015, is expected to one day fill the longstanding vacancy the Coyotes have had for an elite, #1 center. But after being announced as a scratch for tonight’s season-opener, questions are already being raised as to whether Strome is or even will be that guy, as Craig Morgan of Today’s Slapshot writes.
Of course it’s just one game in what likely promises to be a long career for Strome, but it has to be somewhat disconcerting a highly-regarded rookie is already sitting in the press box this early on. To his credit, Strome is looking at the bright side of the situation:
“It’s obviously a little disappointing but you’ve got to look at the positives. I’m here in the NHL, living my dream at 19. Not a lot of people get this opportunity so I’m just going to wait for my chance and just run with it when I get it.”
For his part, head coach Dave Tippett “promised” Strome would get an opportunity and as Morgan notes, the coach even implied the 19-year-old rookie could rotate in and out with Dvorak in a platoon scenario. It seems odd that the Coyotes would subject two of their top prospects to this type of arrangement considering they have other options. Dvorak could have been sent to Tucson of the AHL to gain more professional experience. Strome is eligible to be returned to Erie of the OHL for a final season of junior but according to Morgan the Coyotes would prefer to introduce the youngster to their system and have him work with their staff to further his development. After netting 240 points in his last 124 OHL games, it would seem apparent that another year of junior wouldn’t do Strome much good.
This situation probably will qualify as nothing more than a blip on the radar in the career of Strome. But it has to register as somewhat surprising that he will have to wait a little longer before making his NHL debut.
Four Rookies Make Coyotes Final Roster
Bob McKenzie tweeted earlier that Dylan Strome, Lawson Crouse and Jakob Chychrun have all made the Coyotes final 23-man roster. They will be joined by 21-year-old center Laurent Dauphin, who appears poised to fill the fourth-line pivot job for the Coyotes.
Strome was drafted by the Coyotes third overall in 2015 and will likely fill a top-six center slot for Arizona. He’s combined to score 240 points the last two seasons with the Erie Otters of the OHL, serving as the team’s captain in 2015-16.
Crouse was acquired by Arizona from Florida in the offseason as incentive for the club to assume the balance of Dave Bolland‘s contract. If he stays with the Coyotes for at least 10 games this season, the 2018 conditional draft choice the Coyotes are set to send to Florida will become a second. If he doesn’t burn a year of his ELC, the pick will be a third-rounder.
Chychrun was chosen 16th overall in 2016 with the pick acquired from Detroit in exchange for taking on the final year of Pavel Datsyuk‘s deal. The 18-year-old will likely take the spot of Kevin Connauton, who is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. It’s possible Chychrun’s stay in Arizona will come to an end once Connauton is healthy enough to return.
GM John Chayka made a lot of moves in the summer to help mold his roster into one capable of challenging for a playoff spot. At least to start, it looks like the Coyotes will be counting on a handful of rookies to make significant contributions to that pursuit.
Friedman’s Latest: RFAs, Yakupov, Datsyuk
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman published his weekly 30 Thoughts column today and devoted a significant portion to the big name RFAs who remain unsigned. His first note was on Nikita Kucherov, whose agent – Scott Greenspun – Friedman believes has met with at least one club on the subject of an offer sheet. Due to Tampa’s precarious cap situation, both in the short and long term, the Lightning would be vulnerable to an offer sheet, particularly this close to the start of the regular season when all teams must be in cap compliance. The Lightning have roughly $5.5MM in available cap space but Kucherov may well be able to land significantly more than that from another club. GMs tend to steer clear of offer sheets for fear of angering their colleagues but Kucherov’s talent and track record might eventually prove too tempting for one manager to resist.
The full column is always worth the read but here are a few more key points from Friedman:
- With regards to Johnny Gaudreau, Friedman believes there has been progress made since the two sides met earlier this week. He also notes that negotiations could again reach a stalemate if and when the two sides have moved far enough. The key, Friedman says, is how many unrestricted free agent years the Flames will be buying out, suggesting the longer the term, the higher the AAV. Gaudreau has five years remaining before reaching free agency meaning a max, eight-year term would buy out three free agent seasons.
- There may be as many as six teams with serious interest in trading for Winnipeg Jets RFA defenseman Jacob Trouba. The scribe lists Buffalo, N.Y. Rangers, Detroit, Colorado, Boston and Arizona as the clubs looking at making a deal for the talented young blue liner. Of course given Winnipeg’s believed asking price – a left defenseman of similar ability and age – it’s difficult to fathom any of the aforementioned clubs being a match. Evidently that thought has also occurred to the Jets and that has prompted interested suitors to try to engage a third team to help meet Winnipeg’s demands. One obvious team that could facilitate a trade would be Anaheim as Friedman notes. The Ducks still have Hampus Lindholm to come to terms with and recently sent both Brandon Montour and Shea Theodore – two of the team’s top blue line prospects – to San Diego in the AHL. They certainly have the depth to meet Winnipeg’s needs.
- Apparently the Jets also asked Trouba’s camp to provide the numbers it would take to convince the 22-year-old to re-up in Winnipeg but they were told as long as the situation on the right side of the team’s defense remained the same that re-signing “wasn’t going to happen.”
- Friedman wonders whether the St. Louis Blues will employ the newly acquired Nail Yakupov as a power play specialist and if so, would they play him with two right-shooting forwards. He notes that Yakupov’s man-advantage shooting percentage with Edmonton was 14.8% when on the ice with at least two right-handed forwards and just 7.1% otherwise. The problem with the theory is that the Blues list just three forwards who fire the puck from the starboard side and of those, just David Perron is likely to see much power play time. St. Louis does have four right-handed blue liners so the coaching staff could get creative if they have in fact given any thought to Friedman’s suggestion.
- When the Arizona Coyotes agreed to take on the final year of Pavel Datsyuk‘s contract from Detroit, it was thought their primary motivation was moving up in the 2016 draft four slots to secure the rights to talented young blue liner Jakob Chychrun. Secondarily, Datsyuk’s $7.5MM cap charge would help the team exceed the cap floor. However, Friedman reports that first-year GM John Chayka had something else entirely in mind. With Datsyuk already committed to signing in the KHL, Chayka tried to convince St. Petersburg to allow the Coyotes to speak with two of their players, Yevgeni Dadonov (perhaps misidentified in Friedman’s post as Evgeny Davydov) and Vadim Shipachyov, in exchange for releasing Datsyuk’s rights. Obviously it didn’t work out for Chayka but it shows his willingness to look at outside-the-box for ways to upgrade his roster.
Pacific Division Notes: Rodin, Gryba, Bennett, Coyotes Prospects
In need of additional scoring punch up front, the Vancouver Canucks were hopeful Swedish winger Anton Rodin would earn a big league job and contribute some secondary scoring to the lineup. He has impressed during camp but now it looks as if his NHL debut will be postponed as the 25-year-old winger is experiencing soreness and swelling in his surgically repaired knee. Rodin suffered a severed tendon last year while playing in the Swedish Elite League and as Iain MacIntyre of the Province writes, it’s believed that Rodin has simply aggravated the knee by playing too much hockey in a relatively short period of time this preseason.
GM Jim Benning indicated Rodin will be held out of the lineup for up to a week to allow for rest and rehab.
“The injury got aggravated and so he’s going to have to take a step back. We’re going to give him a few days or week off here to get the swelling down, and from there just rehab so he’s a 100 per cent for us. We’re going to need him at 100 per cent.”
MacIntyre notes that Rodin is averaging a point-per-game through five preseason contests and has demonstrated an ability to protect the puck and to play in traffic against bigger opponents during exhibition games. The 2009 second-round pick has some experience in North America, skating in 111 games with Chicago in the AHL, scoring 14 goals and 41 points. He returned to Sweden in time for the 2014-15 season and would go on to win the Swedish League’s MVP in 2015-16.
Fortunately for Vancouver, the injury doesn’t appear serious and it looks as if Rodin will only be out a short time. It could threaten his availability to play in the season opener and as such, his absence could come into play as the Canucks look to finalize their roster.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- After signing Kris Russell to a one-year contract, the Edmonton Oilers have given fellow blue liner Eric Gryba permission to speak with other clubs in an attempt to land a job, tweets Jason Gregor of the Edmonton Journal. This would seem to suggest Gryba, who is in camp with the Oilers on a PTO, will not make the Edmonton roster. If Gryba fails to find a spot in another organization, Gregor believes he could continue to skate with the team, though of course he would be doing so without a contract. Gryba spent the first three years of his NHL career with Ottawa before a 2015 trade sent the defenseman to Edmonton. He appeared in 53 games in 2015-16 with the Oilers and tallied one goal and six points.
- It’s looking more and more likely the Arizona Coyotes will break camp with a few rookies among their ranks, writes Sarah McLellan of AZ Central. Dylan Strome was expected to make the team and fill a scoring line pivot role and has done nothing in camp to change that line of thinking. Recently he’s been skating with Lawson Crouse and Anthony Duclair on the team’s second line. Speaking of Crouse, the Coyotes value his grit and toughness though it’s still likely he doesn’t start the season with Arizona. Laurent Dauphin could force his way into a 4th line role and has evidently earned the trust of his teammates with his hard work. McLellan also notes the team is still giving looks to forwards Christian Dvorak and Christian Fischer along with blue liners Jakob Chychrun and Anthony DeAngelo. Whatever happens it seems quite possible that several rookies will be suiting up for the Coyotes in 2016-17.
- Calgary Flames center Sam Bennett appears poised for a breakout campaign as a sophomore in the NHL, writes Wes Gilbertson of the Calgary Herald. Bennett, who scored 18 goals and 36 points in 77 games as a rookie, is already well on his way to earning the trust of new head coach Glen Gulutzan due to his responsible two-way play this preseason. The 20-year-old pivot has also made an impression on veteran winger Troy Brouwer, with whom he has skated with this preseason: “He’s a good player. He sees the ice well and he reads the game well, which is a tough thing and a unique thing to have, especially at 20 years old. I think he’s the type of player, under this coach, who is going to have a lot of responsibility and it’s really going to elevate his game.” Gilbertson notes that with Johnny Gaudreau still unsigned and not playing, Calgary has struggled putting the puck in the net scoring just nine times in seven games. If Gaudreau is out for any extended period of the regular season, Bennett could help fill the scoring void created by his absence.
Roster Crunch: Arizona’s Defense Corps
With training camps well underway, there are plenty of interesting battles for roster spots throughout the league. One of the more intriguing ones is happening in Arizona as the Coyotes now find themselves with a plethora of defensemen battling for a spot on their back end. Here’s a closer look at their blueline battle.
Locks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – He is undoubtedly their number one defenseman and will be used in all situations. He’s also on a cap friendly deal for a top rearguard coming in with an AAV of just $5.5MM for the next three years.
Alex Goligoski – New GM John Chayka wasted little time with the former Dallas Star. He acquired his negotiating rights and quickly inked him to a five year, $27.375MM contract to be another anchor for their back end.
Connor Murphy – The former first rounder has seen his ice time increase each season and he surpassed the 20 minute average last year. He also signed a long-term deal this offseason, getting an average of $3.85MM over the next six years.
Zbynek Michalek – After rejoining the Coyotes last offseason, Michalek spent most of the year in a third pairing role, one he’s likely to reprise this season. While he could potentially be deemed expendable, he carries a cap hit of $3.2MM which may be difficult to unload in the current market and it’s unlikely that they would bury his contract in the minors given their status as a low-budget team.
Luke Schenn – Chayka brought the 26 year old in on a two year deal this offseason with a decent value at $1.25MM per year. While he projects as a third pairing player, it’s unlikely he’s going to get pushed off the roster so quickly after signing with the team.
Michael Stone – Stone had a career year last season and spent a lot of time on Arizona’s top pairing. While he may not have as big of a role this year, he’s a sure fire bet to start in their top four.
That’s six blueliners that are pretty much locks to start the season with the Coyotes, leaving them one or two (at most) spots to fill from a group of six other defensemen who could conceivably make a run at one of those positions.