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Jake Guentzel

Steven Stamkos To Hit Unrestricted Free Agency, Lightning To Pursue Jake Guentzel

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By trading away defenseman Mikhail Sergachev and forward Tanner Jeannot earlier this afternoon, the Tampa Bay Lightning have $11.165MM more to work with this summer than they did 24 hours ago. Much of the early conjecture perceived the cap-clearing moves as the Lightning making a concerted effort to keep captain Steven Stamkos in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career.

We now know that is not the case as the Lightning never increased upon their original eight-year, $3MM AAV extension offer to Stamkos, as Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports confirms that the star forward will reach the free agent market for the first time in his career on Monday. In a clear case of pivoting away from their captain, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes Tampa Bay made their moves today to pursue Jake Guentzel once free agency opens up on July 1st (Article Link).

Before eventually signing his most recent eight-year, $68MM extension with the Lightning, Stamkos was poised to be the hottest name on the free agent market heading into the 2016-17 NHL season. Despite never hitting the open market, the Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs were all interested in signing Stamkos nearly a decade ago. However, with Stamkos signing his contract on June 29th, 2016, he was prohibited from negotiating with any other team.

This time, Stamkos will earn the ability to talk to all 32 teams before finally deciding on his future. The Nashville Predators have been the most heavily linked to Stamkos so far, but the New York Rangers, Vancouver Canucks, Red Wings, and Utah Hockey Club, among others, will all have interest in signing the star player. This does not count out the Lightning organization either as they will be in contact with Stamkos and his camp in the coming days.

On the other side of the report, the Lightning join the Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Canucks as teams that are pursuing Guentzel this summer. The 29-year-old winger is coming off a season that saw him score 30 goals and 77 points in 67 games with 25 of those points coming in 17 games with Carolina after being acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins. In the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs, Guentzel continued as a strong performer as he registered four goals and nine points through 11 games.

If Tampa Bay can sign Guentzel once free agency opens on July 1st, they will potentially start the 2024-25 NHL season with the best first line in the league. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov are in no danger of losing their spots on the team’s first line — and adding Guentzel to it will have opposing teams scrambling to match up against it.

Both players’ situations will unfold over the next 48 hours but one item remains clear. After bowing in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs two years in a row, the Lightning are not afraid to make tough decisions to extend their contention window.

LeBrun’s Latest: Guentzel, Skjei, Stamkos, Kane, Marchessault, Askarov

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The 2024 NHL Draft is mere hours away, but this year’s compressed schedule means we also only have three days until the opening of the UFA market. That means for most of the usual insiders, there’s a lot of reporting tidbits coming out on the fly. That was the case today for Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic, who has more than a few notable updates about some of the top pending UFAs and some ripple effects of this week’s moves:

  • While things have seemingly been trending in the wrong direction between the Hurricanes and trade deadline pickup Jake Guentzel for weeks, LeBrun writes the Hurricanes have upped their offer in a last-minute bid to retain his services. Their last pitch comes in at around $64MM total on an eight-year deal, working out to an $8MM cap hit. That’s close to what Guentzel’s camp was asking for at the beginning of negotiations with Carolina, LeBrun writes, but with his name still available this close to going to market, there are likely other teams willing to offer more annually. It is worth pointing out that the Hurricanes still hold an advantage by having the ability to offer him an eighth year of term, allowing them to sign him for the same amount of total cash for a slightly lower cap hit. A seven-year, $9MM AAV deal that he’s rumored to be able to land on the open market would leave him $1MM short of the total compensation he’d get from Carolina.
  • There’s still “a chance for Carolina” to retain defenseman Brady Skjei, who checks in as the top left-shot option available should he remain unsigned come Monday. But it still appears unlikely at this stage, especially considering he could command in the $7MM AAV range on the open market. LeBrun expects the Predators to be one of the most aggressive teams in pursuit of Skjei should he not ink a new deal with the Canes.
  • Following up on a statement from Steven Stamkos’ agent earlier today that the longtime Lightning captain projects to hit the open market, LeBrun said Tampa GM Julien BriseBois is trying to make his tight cap situation work by offering Stamkos a low-AAV deal at the maximum eight-year term. He speculates they’ve offered him a deal with a $3MM cap hit, working out to a total value of $24MM. On a four-year deal, something the 34-year-old is much more likely to land on the open market, that would be twice the cost against the cap ($6MM annually). It’s something BriseBois has tried and failed to do before, with LeBrun confirming that was his strategy to attempt to keep winger Alex Killorn from departing in free agency last year. He ended up rejecting an eight-year, $20MM deal ($2.5MM cap hit) from Tampa to sign a four-year, $25MM deal ($6.25MM AAV) with the Ducks.
  • If Patrick Kane moves on from the Red Wings next week, don’t expect him to travel very far. LeBrun reports the future Hall-of-Famer’s preference is to stick in the Eastern Conference as he signs what could be the final contract of his career.
  • The Golden Knights remain hard at work trying to retain 2023 Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault, but they’re not on the verge of an extension, his agent Pat Brisson told LeBrun. Vegas has around $6.2MM in projected cap space with Robin Lehner on long-term injured reserve, which they’d likely use all of on a Marchessault extension. More moves are needed for financial flexibility, and LeBrun reports Marchessault is “readying himself for the realistic possibility that he might have to move on.“
  • Lastly, Predators top goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov is all but officially on the trade block with yesterday’s report that Juuse Saros is nearing an eight-year extension to stay in Smashville. There’s still a strong chance Askarov remains with Nashville last season and enters his first full-time NHL campaign as Saros’ backup, but LeBrun reports the Preds are leveraging him to try and move into the top five of tonight’s draft. It’s not the first time they’ve done this – we wrote the exact same piece last year about the Preds trying to send him to the Canadiens to acquire the fifth-overall pick. Montreal holds the same selection this year.

Free Agent Notes: Guentzel, Stamkos, Tanev, Johnson

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Winger Jake Guentzel is set to be one of the top players in this year’s UFA class.  The Hurricanes haven’t given up on trying to re-sign the veteran, per The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta (Twitter link) who adds that the Kings and Red Wings are among the teams that are expected to show interest should the 29-year-old make it to the open market.  Guentzel split the season between Pittsburgh and Carolina, who made him their big addition at the trade deadline.  He’s coming off his third-straight 30-goal campaign and has averaged over a point per game in four of the last five years.  Guentzel also had a good playoff showing, notching nine points in 11 contests, and is just below a point per game for his postseason career.  That certainly has him well-positioned to earn a significant raise on the $6MM he has been making since 2019-20.

Other news on the free agent front:

  • Discussions are ongoing between the Lightning and captain Steven Stamkos, Pagnotta relays (Twitter link). Stamkos made it known going back to training camp in the fall that he wasn’t pleased that a new deal wasn’t in place with the team preferring to let the season play out.  His frustration didn’t show in his play, however, as he put up 40 goals and 41 assists in 79 games, surpassing the point-per-game threshold for the seventh time in eight years.  While the 34-year-old will one day slow down, it looks like he has several good years still to come, meaning he’ll have a strong market should he actually get to free agency on Monday.
  • The Stars are continuing discussions with pending UFA blueliner Chris Tanev, relays Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic (Twitter link). The 34-year-old proved to be a strong pickup at the trade deadline, helping to anchor their back end through a run to the Western Conference Final.  Tanev finished the season with 19 points and a career-best 207 blocks in 75 games between Calgary and Dallas and will have strong interest next week; LeBrun puts the Maple Leafs as one of his likely suitors.
  • Blackhawks RFA Reese Johnson is not expected to receive a qualifying offer, his agent Michael O’Rafferty told Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link). The 25-year-old was limited to just 42 games this season while also dealing with a concussion.  Johnson had five points and 109 hits in those appearances while averaging a little less than 11 minutes a night.  His qualifying offer comes in at just under $900K with arbitration rights but it appears Chicago will let someone else get a chance on their fourth line.

Canucks Interested In Jake Guentzel

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Jake Guentzel’s pending free agency could lead him to the West Coast. The Hurricanes left winger has yielded strong interest from the Canucks, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports. They’re expected to make a “strong play” for his services amid likely interest from the Capitals, Panthers, Maple Leafs and Rangers, said Seravalli.

An extension in Carolina doesn’t appear to be in the cards for Guentzel, and his signing rights have been made available for trade for teams to get an inside track on a deal before July 1. He’ll have plenty of suitors after drawing a similar level of attention at the trade deadline a few months ago.

Guentzel is nearing the end of a five-year, $30MM extension he signed with the Penguins in December 2018, midway through a breakout campaign that saw him hit the 40-goal and 75-point marks for the first time. His $6MM cap hit since served as a bargain for Pittsburgh as he continued flourishing on Sidney Crosby’s wing, averaging just north of a point per game over the life of his extension. With the Penguins struggling to stay in the playoff race this season, though, they dealt him to Carolina at the deadline to avoid losing him for nothing this summer – a fate the Hurricanes are also trying to avoid by recouping at least some value for his signing rights.

An upper-body injury limited him to 67 games this season, but it didn’t stop him from having the best offensive campaign of his career on a per-game basis. He finished the season with a sparkling eight goals and 25 points in 17 games for the Canes, bringing his season average up to 1.15 points per game. Only 14 players in the league had more.

In all likelihood, he’ll land a max-term contract this summer, whether it’s a seven-year deal on the open market or an eight-year extension with a team that acquires his signing rights. At age 29, he likely won’t get the chance for another big payday. Seravalli believes his cap hit should come in around $9.5MM per season, close to what we’ll predict on our Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list dropping next week.

That’s something the Canucks can stomach at first glance with $24.078MM in projected cap space next season, which jumps to $26.578MM if you account for defenseman Tucker Poolman’s likely long-term injured reserve placement, per CapFriendly. But like the team he’s parting ways with in Raleigh, Vancouver has a large slate of pending free agents to re-sign or part ways with. As Seravalli points out, signing Guentzel almost surely means letting Dakota Joshua and Elias Lindholm hit the open market, pawning off most or all of Ilya Mikheyev’s $4.75MM cap hit in a trade, and making other tough decisions with a defense group that includes Filip Hronek, Tyler Myers and Nikita Zadorov.

Guentzel does seem to fit like a glove in Vancouver’s lineup, though. Arguably their biggest weakness in their breakout 2023-24 campaign was a lack of support for budding superstar center Elias Pettersson, who spent most of the season with depth wingers Nils Höglander, Sam Lafferty and Mikheyev as his linemates. Getting a player with a lengthy history of meshing well with star centers could do wonders for the 25-year-old Swede as he kicks off his massive eight-year, $92.8MM extension.

It’s not as if there’s no history between Guentzel and Vancouver, either. Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford was the one who signed Guentzel’s current deal as GM of the Penguins, and the club was one of the finalists for his services at the deadline in March.

East Notes: Marner, Red Wings, Guentzel

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Jonas Siegel of The Athletic speculates what a potential Mitch Marner trade might look like for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Siegel points to several recent trades for Pierre-Luc Dubois and Dougie Hamilton as templates the Maple Leafs could use to get a return package for the 27-year-old Marner. Both of those trades brought young NHL-ready talent back to their respective teams, which is something that Toronto would likely covet given their competitive window.

Siegel points to the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning as teams that the Maple Leafs could potentially do business with. Carolina could dangle Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, and Martin Necas as potential centerpieces of a return for Marner, while Tampa Bay could use Mikhail Sergachev or Brandon Hagel.

Siegel does concede that any potential Marner trade could be nixed by his no-movement clause and might be a difficult trade for Toronto to win. However, with Marner’s pending free agency status, it may be something they need to explore.

In other Eastern Conference notes:

  • Max Bultman of The Athletic wonders if the Detroit Red Wings might be players in the goaltending market this summer, specifically the trade market where several high-end starters are available. Bultman writes that the Red Wings’ general manager isn’t revealing much but adds that Ville Husso’s health could nudge the Red Wings into the trade market and would be the quickest way to improve the team’s overall defense which was something that was an Achilles heel last season. Detroit missed the playoffs by the smallest of margins and adding a top-tier netminder might be the thing that gets them back into the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The team has backup Alex Lyon signed next year to a very reasonable $900K, but likely can’t count on him to duplicate his 44-game workload from this past season.
  • Elliotte Friedman reported today on his 32 Thoughts podcast that the rights to Hurricanes forward Jake Guentzel are available for a mid-round pick. Friedman tells his audience that Carolina has made it known to other teams that the 29-year-old’s signing rights are available and adds that there will be a ton of interest. It was reported earlier this week that Guentzel was likely to test free agency and it makes sense for the Hurricanes to pivot and try to recoup an asset after dealing Michael Bunting, three prospects, and a second-round pick to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline to acquire Guentzel.

Jake Guentzel Likely To Test Free Agency

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Hurricanes winger Jake Guentzel, nearly universally viewed as the second-best pending unrestricted free agent available, will likely still be on the market when July 1 hits, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports.

The possibility of returning to Carolina after the market opens hasn’t been ruled out, but he’s expected to look at other offers and potential fits around the league. His camp has had extensive extension talks with the Hurricanes since their season ended in the second round last month, but their richest offer evidently isn’t enough to keep him from at least window-shopping elsewhere.

Despite missing around a month due to injury, the 29-year-old is arguably coming off the best season of his career. After yet again putting up over a point per game on Sidney Crosby’s wing with the Penguins, Guentzel exploded after the move to Carolina, recording eight goals and 25 points in his final 17 regular-season games. He remained excellent in postseason play, tying for third on the team in scoring with nine points (four goals, five assists) in 11 games while logging the third-most ice time among forwards behind Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis.

Guentzel also positively influenced the Hurricanes’ already strong possession game. With him on the ice at even strength, the Hurricanes controlled 60.2% of shot attempts, 1.5% higher than their shot attempt share without him. The 2013 third-round pick also had a positive relative possession impact in all eight of his seasons in Pittsburgh.

He also hit the 30-goal mark for the third straight season and the fourth time in his career overall. While his market value won’t eclipse Panthers pending UFA winger Sam Reinhart, who’s coming off a career-best 57 goals, he’s undoubtedly a safer signing with a long track record of point-per-game play under his belt. His short stint thus far in Carolina certainly boosts his value, proving he can still produce elite numbers away from one of the game’s all-time greats.

Former Hurricanes GM Don Waddell managed to acquire Guentzel from the Penguins without parting with a first-round pick, but he did surrender solid complementary winger Michael Bunting and a trio of prospects with NHL ceilings. His value on the open market could very well eclipse the $9.5MM mark on a max-term deal, though.

That’s money the Hurricanes’ interim management group of AGMs Eric Tulsky, Darren Yorke, and owner Tom Dundon may not be willing to commit with Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Teuvo Teräväinen also headed for free agency this summer, among many others. However, as Pagnotta reports, there were no mid-season extension discussions with Teräväinen, and his camp is expected to make a call next week on pursuing a last-minute agreement in Carolina or joining Guentzel in heading to market.

Guentzel is completing a five-year, $30MM extension he signed with Pittsburgh in 2018. The Nebraska native and Nebraska-Omaha collegiate product led all players in playoff scoring with 13 goals in 25 games as a rookie in 2017, helping the Pens win their second of back-to-back championships.

Morning Notes: Vesey, Guentzel, Skjei

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Sportsnet is reporting that New York Rangers forward Jimmy Vesey left Game 2 last night against the Florida Panthers after taking a high hit from Panthers forward Ryan Lomberg. Vesey was ruled out of the game with an upper-body injury before the start of the third period. The Boston, Massachusetts native has dressed in 11 playoff games this season, tallying a goal and two assists.

Vesey’s injury could allow forward Blake Wheeler to return to action. Wheeler skated in the pre-game last night but ultimately did not dress. The 37-year-old Wheeler has been out of action since he suffered a scary lower-body injury back on February 15th. There is no word yet on Vesey’s status as he is being evaluated.

In other morning notes:

  • Despite the movement in their front office with Don Waddell’s departure, the Carolina Hurricanes are reportedly engaged in contract extension talks with trade deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel (per Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic). The forward was a seamless fit in Carolina and has expressed an interest in staying with the Hurricanes long-term. LeBrun says that the Hurricanes initiated the contract talks with the star forward but it remains to be seen if they will be able to meet his asking price which could hover around $9MM annually on a long-term contract. Guenzel has averaged 36 goals per 82 games during his career and will be in high demand should he reach the open market.
  • The Hurricanes have also reportedly continued contract discussions with defenseman Brady Skjei (as per Pierre LeBrun). The 30-year-old has been with Carolina for five seasons and has been in extension talks with the Hurricanes intermittently since last summer. Skjei is coming off a career year in which he posted 13 goals and 34 assists in 80 games and has become an exceptional two-way defenseman playing alongside Brett Pesce. Skjei does a bit of everything and his offensive outburst this past season isn’t outside of the norm for him given that he had 18 goals during the 2022-23 season. He will be in high demand if he reaches free agency on July 1st.

Hurricanes Notes: Skjei, Pesce, Guentzel

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Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei has shared that getting a “fair offer” will be his top priority as he enters free agency, per Walt Ruff of NHL.com (Twitter link). Skjei is coming off a career year, posting a career-high 47 points in 80 games and averaging the second-most ice time on Carolina’s defense. The Hurricanes have expressed interest in hanging onto Skjei, but his strong performance – following an 18-goal season last year – has positioned him as one of the top names set to hit the open market.

Skjei, 30, is likely set to join the team he’ll finish his career with on his next deal. It’d be no surprise if that remained Carolina, who Skjei joined via trade from the New York Rangers in the 2019-20 season – with Carolina sending the 2019 first-round pick used on Hendrix Lapierre the other way. After five up-and-down seasons in New York, Skjei found a home in Carolina – becoming a much more consistent and reliable defender in all three zones. He’s appeared in 302 games and recorded 135 points – both ranked second among Hurricanes defensemen since 2019, behind Jaccob Slavin. Skjei, Slavin, and Brett Pesce have become pillars of the Hurricanes’ defense in the years since, though Carolina is already planning to part ways with the latter. That should give them more cap space to negotiate with Skjei, though they’re sure to have no shortage of competition in pitching a “fair offer”.

Other notes from Carolina:

  • Speaking of Pesce, he shared with Chip Alexander of The News and Observer that he was close to returning from injury before the season ended, sharing he was hoping to return in the Conference Finals. Pesce was bearing through a fracture in his fibula, near his ankle, suffered in Game 2 against the New York Islanders. He missed the final nine games of Carolina’s season – a quiet end to what was a quiet season, with Pesce posting a career-low 13 points through 70 games. He finished his closeout interview by adding that he’s hoping both he and defense-partner Skjei will find a way to re-sign in Carolina, saying “We don’t want our story to end, for sure. We both want to be back, it’s pretty obvious.”
  • New Carolina Hurricanes star Jake Guentzel didn’t rule out a return to Carolina during locker room clean-out, though he made sure to emphasize that it’s a business at the end of the day, shared Ruff (Twitter link). Guentzel was dazzling in Carolina, recording 25 points in 17 regular-season games and nine points in 11 postseason games. He was, in his usual fashion, one of the team’s most consistent performers in the playoffs, serving a strong role on Carolina’s top line after spending the regular season throughout the top six. Guentzel, 29, would challenge Steven Stamkos as the most coveted player on the open market this year, should he enter free agency. That excitement could have him interested in playing the field, though he made sure to speak highly of the Hurricanes in his final interview, sharing “This team for sure can win a Stanley Cup. I think it’s right there… I want to win more than anything and that’s all I care about.”

Penguins Notes: Pettersson, Guentzel Trade Return, Harkins

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Penguins defenseman Marcus Pettersson is one of their notable extension candidates this summer as he’ll officially enter the final year of his contract in July.  Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette examined some of the possible comparable players for the blueliner, concluding that a long-term agreement for him could approach $6MM per season, a fair-sized raise for someone making just over $4MM per year now.  The 28-year-old is coming off a career year, one that saw him collect 28 points in 82 games while logging over 22 minutes a night which certainly will help his case in negotiations.  Considering the long-term deals Pittsburgh has on the books already, it’s quite possible that the team could look to move him if they feel he’ll be too expensive to keep around.

Elsewhere in Pittsburgh:

  • As a result of Carolina being eliminated from the playoffs on Thursday, the Jake Guentzel trade from March is now finalized. CapFriendly points out (Twitter link) that because the Hurricanes lost (failing to reach the Stanley Cup Final), the conditional 2024 second-round pick (44th overall from Philadelphia) they gave up will not be upgraded to their 2024 first-round selection.  Meanwhile, the conditional fifth-round pick will no longer transfer to Pittsburgh since Carolina isn’t going to win the Stanley Cup this year.
  • Forward Jansen Harkins is slated to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time this summer. Although he eventually earned the trust of the coaching staff as the season went on, Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests that it’s not a guarantee that the Penguins try to bring him back.  Harkins was claimed off waivers in training camp to add more depth up front but GM Kyle Dubas could conceivably try to bring in other players to battle for those last couple of roster spots while moving on from the ones who has those spots this season.  The 26-year-old had four assists in 45 games while averaging just over eight minutes a night of ice time.

East Notes: Devils, Rousek, Wennberg, Ponomarev

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While the season isn’t over yet for the Devils, GM Tom Fitzgerald has already identified an area outside the crease that he’d like to address for 2024-25.  In an interview with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun (subscription link), Fitzgerald indicated that he’d like his team “get harder on the wing” for next season.  New Jersey has been hovering around the top ten for offense this year despite missing several key players due to injuries so it appears their preference would be to add some grit to help complement their skilled forwards.  As things stand, New Jersey has around $21MM in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, giving Fitzgerald ample wiggle room to work with to reshape parts of his roster.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • Sabres winger Lukas Rousek left today’s practice early after taking a stick to the face. Head coach Don Granato told reporters including Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News that Rousek’s status for tomorrow’s game is unknown as he was undergoing medical evaluation.  The 24-year-old has two assists in nine games so far with Buffalo after a strong showing with AHL Rochester where he notched 10 goals and 28 assists in 48 contests.
  • The Rangers announced (Twitter link) that center Alexander Wennberg was unavailable to play tonight for personal reasons. He and his wife are expecting a child in the coming days.  The 29-year-old was acquired from Seattle earlier this month and he has fared relatively well in the early going with his new team, picking up four points in nine games so far.  However, his playing time is down by nearly four minutes a night as he’s averaging 15:01 with his new team.
  • Penguins prospect Vasiliy Ponomarev suffered a lower-body injury late last week with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, relays Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The 22-year-old was a key piece in the Jake Guentzel trade and was speculated to be a strong recall candidate for the stretch run.  However, Ponomarev is now listed as out week-to-week which will put those plans on hold if not squash them altogether.

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