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2016-17 Season Preview: New York Rangers

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After back-to-back Eastern Conference Final berths and a trip to the 2014 Stanley Cup Final, the New York Rangers stumbled this past season, dropping their first-round playoff series to the eventual Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins in five games. The Blueshirts embarked on a summer of retooling with the hope the remaining core has enough gas left in the tank to propel the team on another long playoff run. With the season set to start in less than a week, we’ll soon how the changes made play out on the ice.

Last Season: 46 – 27 – 9, 101 points, third in the Metro Division. Lost in the first-round of the playoffs.

Remaining Cap Space: $2.95MM per Cap Friendly.

Key Newcomers: Mika Zibanejad (Trade – Ottawa); Jimmy Vesey (UFA – Harvard); Josh Jooris (UFA – Calgary); Michael Grabner (UFA – Toronto); Brandon Pirri (UFA – Anaheim); Nick Holden (Trade – Colorado)

Key Departures: Derick Brassard (Trade – Ottawa); Eric Staal (UFA – Minnesota); Dominic Moore (UFA – Boston); Keith Yandle (Trade – Florida); Dan Boyle (Retirement)

[Related: New York Rangers depth chart via Roster Resource]

Players to Watch: Dan Girardi and Marc Staal. The Rangers have for years relied on Girardi and Staal to provide steady play from the back end but last season was a tough one for both blue liners. Henrik Lundqvist faced more High Danger Shots Against (HDSA) than any other goalie in the league, averaging better than one additional HDSA-per-game than Braden Holtby, who was #2. At least part of that was due to the lackluster play of Girardi and Staal and in particular, their struggles in the puck possession department.

While Girardi has never been a strong possession player, not finishing with a CF% above 50% in eight seasons, Staal posted a CF% of 54.3% as recently as 2013-14. It’s possible the wear and tear from years of blocking shots and playing 20-plus minutes every night against the opposition’s best players has simply caught up to the 32-year-old Girardi but there is at least a chance Staal can again be a reliable defender.

It’s fair to note that Girardi battled injuries for much of the 2015-16 campaign, including a cracked knee cap which he played with through the second half of the season. He’s said to be fully healthy – perhaps for the first time in several seasons – and with a long offseason of rest and recuperation, Girardi feels he can again be a solid shutdown blue liner.

The Blue Shirts have $11.2MM tied up annually in the two defensemen and much of the reason the team avoided big money free agent deals was the lack of flexibility due to the Staal and Girardi contracts. Those deals also make it practically impossible for GM Jeff Gorton to move either player, likely meaning that barring a contract buyout, the Rangers will be forced to sink or swim with the two defenders playing big minutes. For the team to have a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup, they need much better performances from Girardi and Staal.

Key Storyline: Defense, defense and again, defense. Gorton did a tremendous job with limited resources injecting youth and speed into the lineup but was unable to upgrade the talent on defense. Henrik Lundqvist is still playing at an elite level and the offense figures again to be a top-10 unit – they finished seventh overall in goals scored in 2015-16. But if the defense continues to allow the opposition too many high quality scoring chances on a nightly basis, none of that will matter. Partially due to salary cap constraints, the Rangers were unable to land a defensive upgrade on the free agent market and in fact were forced to trade Yandle, who many felt was the team’s best defenseman last season, because they could not afford to re-sign him.

Perhaps a healthy Girardi and a rested Staal will be better in 2016-17. Maybe head coach Alain Vigneault and new assistant Jeff Beukeboom can tweak the defensive system to provide additional help to his blue liners. But without major improvements in the play on the back end, it’s likely the Rangers will again come up short in their quest for the Stanley Cup.

New York Hockey Notes: Halak, Tavares, Rangers

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The New York Islanders face an interesting choice when deciding who will be between the pipes to start the 2016-17 season. They have three goalies on one-way contracts – Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss and Jean-Francois Berube – though realistically when it comes to the starting job, the choice will be between Halak and Greiss.

Halak had a solid season in 2015-16, winning 18 of his 36 starts and stopping nearly 92% of the shots he faced. The advanced stats crowd holds Halak in particularly high regard due in large part to his ability to limit goals against on high danger shot attempts. Over the last two seasons, Halak has stopped 84.03% of shots against from high danger scoring areas in 5v5 situations. That figure is good for seventh overall in the NHL among goalies who have seen at least 1,500 minutes of 5v5 play. Halak ranks higher than bigger names like Braden Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist.

Greiss was excellent in goal for the Islanders in the postseason with Halak unavailable due to injury. He also ranks among the best goaltenders in preventing goals in high danger situations. His 84.97 HDSv% at 5v5 is the fourth highest over the last two seasons. It’s his strong play last season and the presence of Berube that has led some to postulate the Islanders could look to trade Halak to address other needs.

This issue was addressed by Arthur Staple of Newsday in this reader mailbag. Staple points to Halak’s strong play in the World Cup as the starter for the surprising Europeans and indicates that the Islanders organization is intent on keeping him on board. That means Greiss is likely headed back to the #2 role while Berube is likely to have to wait his turn while suiting up for Bridgeport in the AHL.

Other points of interest in Staple’s mailbag and roster notes on the Islanders Big Apple rivals:

  • Staple takes an early stab at what it will ultimately cost the Islanders to extend captain and face-of-the-franchise John Tavares. He reasons that since Tavares is the “one true star” of the team – unlike in Chicago (Toews/Kane) and Pittsburgh (Crosby/Malkin), he will be able to command a larger piece of the Islander salary cap pie. Staple refers to it as a “blank check situation for him,” and a max length deal in the range of $9.5MM to $10MM annually is where the negotiation will end up. Tavares likely could push for more and certainly the Islanders would prefer a lower number but the team will undoubtedly do whatever necessary to ink their captain to a long-term deal.
  • Answering a query regarding the continued development of defenseman Nick Leddy, Staple feels the 25-year-old blue liner can take the next step and become an “elite” defender. Staple suggests the Islanders will limit Leddy’s ice time by cutting his penalty-killing duties in the hopes he will remain fresher and produce better numbers at five-on-five.
  • Steve Zipay of Newsday projects the Rangers opening night roster and notes the team will have a significant amount of cap space remaining for one of the few times in recent memory. The Blueshirts had just $200K in cap space to open the 2015-16 campaign but assuming Zipay’s projections are close to accurate, the team will have in excess of $3MM with which to play with. Of course having that flexibility would allow the Rangers to add salary at any point during the season, rather than waiting until the trade deadline, should they find a deal to their liking.

 

Snapshots: Hartnell, Lundqvist, Las Vegas, Connauton

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News and from around the NHL:

  • Columbus Blue Jacket’s Scott Hartnell has rescinded his offer to waive his no-movement clause—and with it retracts his list of preferred teams. Hartnell agreed to waive his no-movement clause earlier this summer so that Columbus could explore potential trade options. Hartnell still has three years left on his contract that pays him $4.75MM a year. While that isn’t necessarily excessive, Columbus has the cap space of a playoff team rather than the lottery team it was last season. Hartnell still scored 23G and 26A in 79 games for the Blue Jackets, but the team could not find any deals they liked over the summer.
  • Henrik Lundqvist’s workload may reduce this season as the veteran goalie enters his twelfth season. Newsday reports that New York Rangers Coach Alain Vigneault is considering reducing his star goalie to between 50-58 starts this season. Backup Antti Raanta will be expected to shoulder the increased workload. Raanta was 11-6-2 with a .919SV% and a 2.25GAA last year. The plan is to rest Lundqvist for a potential deep playoff run and to balance against his increasing age and starter role for Sweden in the World Cup of Hockey. His reduction could be the first of a few across the league as teams guard their prized goaltenders from injury.
  • The Las Vegas NHL Expansion Team signed a 20-year lease to build a practice facility just outside the Las Vegas strip. The facility will be located in Summerlin, which is northwest of the city center and in the Las Vegas Valley. It is approximately a 30m drive to the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas’s home arena.
  • Arizona Coyotes Kevin Connauton will miss the start of the team’s training camp because of a lower body injury. Connauton scored 4G and 5A in 38 games for the Coyotes after the team picked him up off of waiver from the Columbus Blue Jackets. The rugged defensemenn will be battling for a bottom-pairing role in camp alongside Luke Schenn, Zbynek Michalek, and others.

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