Building a team through free agency is rarely a recipe for success in the NHL. Just ask the Predators, who are only two years removed from “winning” the 2024 UFA sweepstakes but have yet to see any on-ice success from their spending spree (Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei, and Jonathan Marchessault).
However, some teams do find success in the free agent market by acquiring players on the fringes. Last summer is a good example, as the Penguins struck gold by signing Justin Brazeau and Parker Wotherspoon to two-year contracts that have given them some of the best value in the NHL.
All of that being said, it’s rare to see a high-end UFA sign for big money and provide substantial extra value on their long-term deal, which is why the Lightning’s Jake Guentzel stands out as one of the best free agent signings of the last 10-15 years.
When Guentzel signed his seven-year, $63MM contract, he was brought to Tampa Bay to step into the lineup for former captain and long-time star Stamkos. Those were big shoes to fill, as Stamkos was a first-overall pick who had captained Tampa Bay to multiple Cups and was beloved by the city and the organization.
But the Lightning saw an opportunity to get younger and refresh the top of their lineup. It’s paid off in spades. However, it didn’t come without significant risk.
No one knew whether Guentzel would thrive outside of Pittsburgh after spending the first eight seasons of his NHL career with the Penguins, skating alongside Sidney Crosby on the top line. Many believed that Guentzel might have been a product of playing with Crosby and not a player who could excel elsewhere.
Since being traded by Pittsburgh in March 2024, all Guentzel has done is improve his impressive offensive numbers. In 503 games with the Penguins, Guentzel scored 219 goals and 247 assists, averaging 0.93 points per game. However, since the trade, Guentzel has tallied 78 goals and 97 assists in 163 games, averaging 1.07 points per game. While the increase is slight, it is still surprising — and quite welcome for the Lightning.
This season, the 31-year-old has 29 goals and 41 assists in 66 games and is on track for his third 80-point season. If he achieves that, it will mark the seventh time in eight seasons that he has surpassed a point-per-game, a remarkable streak of consistency for a player whose on-ice ability is often questioned.
Guentzel isn’t the flashiest player, nor is he the biggest or fastest. But he has a high hockey IQ and a rare ability to anticipate plays. That’s what made him the best player Crosby has ever played with long-term (an argument can be made that Marián Hossa was the best winger Crosby ever had), and it’s why he’s fit in with Tampa Bay so seamlessly.
There have been other UFA success stories over the past twenty years. Artemi Panarin had an outstanding run with the New York Rangers; the previously mentioned Hossa in Chicago won three Stanley Cups and played a key role in all of them, while Joe Pavelski left San Jose for the Dallas Stars and was a major contributor to their success from 2019 to 2024.
An argument could be made that John Tavares‘ signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 was also a success, and in a vacuum, that is probably true. Tavares signed a seven-year, $77MM contract on the first day of free agency in 2018, and the deal itself worked out well for both Tavares and the Maple Leafs, as he remained an important contributor throughout the term and is currently playing on a bargain extension he signed last year. While Matthews was the captain of Toronto and a key piece of one of their better eras of regular-season success, the Maple Leafs had almost no playoff success, and the acquisition of Tavares led to one of the worst trades in recent memory.
Without Tavares signing, the Maple Leafs likely wouldn’t have traded Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche, a move that eventually helped Colorado win a Stanley Cup and left the Maple Leafs with a significant gap down the middle of the ice. In theory, the trade made sense; Kadri was destined to be a third-line center, and Toronto believed it was best to swap him for defensive help in Tyson Barrie and another center in Alexander Kerfoot. The move didn’t work out and ultimately contributed to Toronto’s decline.
And that parallel from Toronto highlights how impressive Guentzel’s run in Tampa Bay really is. He was brought in to replace arguably the best player in franchise history, and all Guentzel has done is put up better numbers than ever before in his career. There are still five years remaining on his contract, so it’s not guaranteed that Guentzel’s deal won’t become a problem later on, but for now, it’s one of the best UFA signings in recent memory.
I 100% agree of Jake Guentzel being one of the best UFA signings this era without question. He’s fit incredibly seamlessly with Tampa (probably better then anyone could have expected as he’s the first UFA signing in Tampa’s history to produce 70 points or more in his first 2 seasons). When you look into the metrics of Guentzel’s play, he has only become more prominent of a top line player in Tampa as he’s not just some sidekick for Sidney Crosby but a legitimate star player in his own right.
Of course, Guentzel has gone on record stating he loves it in Tampa and looks forward continuing to play for the years to come. I think his play has surely proven that.
P.S. I wouldn’t call Steven Stamkos the greatest Lightning player in the organization’s history. I would put Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Victor Hedman over him.
Technically he wasn’t a ufa signing. His rights were traded by Carolina and he signed the day prior if i recall.
Hurricanes blew it by not paying Jake. He fit in really well here and was worth the money. Now, a year later we did get Ehlers, and he’s been great for us, so they made up for their mistake.