Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Colorado Avalanche
Current Cap Hit: $67,318,095 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Alexander Kerfoot (one year, $925K)
F Dominic Toninato (one year, $925K)
F J.T. Compher (one year, $925K)
F Mikko Rantanen (one year, $894K)
F Tyson Jost (two years, $886K)
F Vladislav Kamenev (one year, $833K)
F A.J. Greer (one year, $741K)
D Samuel Girard (two years, $728K)
D Anton Lindholm (one year, $718K)
Potential Bonuses:
Rantanen: $850K
Jost: $850K
Kerfoot: $213K
Girard: $183K
Lindholm: $183K
Compher: $100K
Greer: $75K
Total: $2.47MM
For a successful team that made it into the playoffs and gave the Nashville Predators a run for their money, it’s a bit surprising that the team got quite a bit of contributions from entry-level players, with Rantanen probably at the top of the list of contributors. After a 20-goal season in his first full season on the team, the 21-year-old took that next step and benefitted from playing with Nathan MacKinnon on the first line, breaking out with a 29-goal, 84-point season. With the top line expected to return this season, don’t be surprised if the winger puts up another big season right before he becomes a restricted free agent and could get rewarded with a long-term contract.
The team expects similar success from Kerfoot, who arrived in Colorado as a four-year college free agent from Harvard University. The 24-year-old posted a 19-goal, 43-point rookie campaign last year as a member of the team’s third line and now is expected to move up a notch and battle Jost for the second-line center position, with the loser moving to right wing on the same line. Jost, scored 12 goals last season in his rookie season, but the 2016 first-rounder is expected to break out if he can earn a spot on that second line as well. Both are likely to have promising seasons.
The 23-year-old Compher is another young talent who will be given every chance to fight for a spot as the left wing on the second line. In his first full season, Compher posted 13 goals and could be in line for a bigger season next year. The team also has high expectations for Girard on the defense. One of the key pieces of the Matt Duchene trade, the then 19-year-old defenseman was able to stay in the NHL, averaging 17:39 ATOI once he was traded from Nashville and posted 20 points in his rookie season and should be able to improve on that as he will likely assume a top-four role already next season.
One interesting prospect is Kamenev, who also came over with Girard in the Duchene deal, but the 22-year-old center was injured one game into his Colorado career, and he missed most of the season. Now healthy, Kamenev has a good chance to earn a role on the team’s third line in hopes of putting up good numbers next year. Toninato may also be an interesting addition as he has a chance to pick up the fourth-line center spot after signing last season out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Semyon Varlamov ($5.9MM, UFA)
F Colin Wilson ($3.94MM, UFA)
D Patrik Nemeth ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Nikita Zadorov ($2.15MM, RFA)
F Sven Andrighetto ($1.4MM, RFA)
F Gabriel Bourque ($950K, UFA)
With cap room at a premium, general manager Joe Sakic had the opportunity to use that to his advantage as he was able to acquire the bloated contract of Brooks Orpik from Washington to acquire their future goaltender in Grubauer, who has posted two straight seasons of .923 save percentages or higher. The Capitals’ backup goalie looks ready for a chance to take a starting role and while he might split time with Varlamov early on, the team’s hopes is that Grubauer steals the job away from him. Varlamov and his $5.9MM contract is set to expire next year, meaning the Avalanche are likely going to allow him to walk.
The team has a pair of defensive players in Zadorov and Nemeth, who will be fighting for contract extensions next season. Zadorov has been a key defensive player for the team, posting 278 hits as well as blocking 106 shots. He even posted a career high in both goals (7) and points (20). Nemeth came over to Colorado from Dallas and immediately jumped into the rotation and led the team with a plus-27 rating and was crucial to the team’s penalty kill and likely will take a third-pairing role once again.
Wilson could be pushed down to the team’s third line or provide a veteran presence on the second line depending if one of the youngsters fails to impress in camp. However, the 28-year-old is coming off of one of his worst-ever seasons as he posted just six goals and 18 points last season. Andrighetto will be another youngster who should get some time in the team’s bottom-six.
Two Years Remaining
D Tyson Barrie ($5.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Soderberg ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Matthew Nieto ($1.98MM, UFA)
D Mark Barberio ($1.45MM, UFA)
D Mark Alt ($725K, UFA)
The 27-year-old took that next step for the Avalanche, putting up career numbers in both goals and points as he posted 14 goals and 57 points last season as he’s proven to be a No. 1 defenseman that the franchise really needs. The team must find a way to lock him up to an extension in July next year.
Soderberg doesn’t post big offensive numbers, but is viewed as a critical shutdown defender, who the Avalanche put up against other teams’ top players. The 32-year-old did put up 16 goals and 37 points last year, but his main responsibility is to center the team’s third line. Nieto will likely end up there with him, who also produced at a career-high as he posted a 15-goal season last year.
Three Years Remaining
F Gabriel Landeskog ($5.57MM, UFA)
D Ian Cole ($4.25MM, UFA)
G Philipp Grubauer ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Calvert ($2.85MM, UFA)
Landeskog has become an integral part of the Avalance’s top line as he posted numbers that are comparable to his best seasons of his career as he posted 25 goals and 62 points. The 25-year-old has added excellent balance to that top line since the team moved on from Duchene. The second-overall pick in 2011 might be able to start meeting the high expectations of his draft status if the chemistry between Rantanen and MacKinnon continue.
Cole, Grubauer and Calvert were all recent additions this offseason with Grubauer having already been discussed. However, the team hopes to get some solid value out of both Cole and Calvert at their respective positions. Cole should provide veteran depth to developing defense and if he plays well enough could beat out Girard or Zadorov for a top-four spot, but is more likely to settle into a third-line pairing. Calvert should be able to provide third or fourth-line depth since his lack of offensive skills would likely prevent him from earning a second-line role.
Four Or More Years Remaining
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM through 2022-23)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM through 2022-23)
The amazing thing is that Colorado only has two players locked up long-term and considering that MacKinnon was one of the top vote-getters for the Hart Trophy last season after the 23-year-old posted 39 goals and 97 points, the team has a steal of a deal with him. With the rising salaries of star players, the fact that Colorado has MacKinnon locked up for five more years at just $6.3MM only makes their situation better and should allow the team to add even more talent over the next couple of years.
The team also has five more years of Johnson at $6MM, which isn’t as good. While Johnson is a solid defensive defenseman, the 30-year-old is injury-prone and hasn’t been able to play 80 games just once in his 10 NHL seasons. He managed nine goals and 25 points in 62 games last season and still remains the team’s second-best defenseman.
Buyouts
D Brooks Orpik ($2.5MM in 2018-19; $1.5MM in 2019-20)
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Still To Sign
None
Best Value: MacKinnon
Worst Value: Johnson
(Excluding entry-level contracts)
Looking Ahead
The Avalanche is a young team that just a year ago many considered to be one of the worst in the NHL. Thanks to the superb play of many of their young players, the team should be in good hands. Colorado has plenty of cap space to handle long-term deals that will need to be given to their many youngsters with Rantanen the most likely to be handed a long-term extension and the team may even have the ability to go after a big-name free agent in a year or two if they continue to improve and show they are the most intriguing team in the Central Division.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
An Avalanche Is Beginning In Colorado
Over the last year, the Colorado Avalanche—and GM Joe Sakic in particular—have taken a lot of heat from media and fans for their performance on and off the ice. Heading into 2017 with a 12-23-1 record, they would go 10-33-3 over the last few months of the 2016-17 season to finish what was a historically bad campaign. Their players seemed to quit on the ice, and rumors of discontent in Jared Bednar’s locker room were rampant. Matt Duchene, one of the long-time faces of the franchise asked for a fresh start elsewhere, but was forced to finish the year and wasn’t promised anything going forward.
In June, the team lost a young goaltender in Calvin Pickard to the expansion Vegas Golden Knights and were bumped all the way out of the top-3 in the draft lottery despite their last-place finish. Duchene trade rumors persisted, but Sakic wouldn’t lower his high asking price. Still, on the draft floor the Avalanche would be able to select exactly what they needed at fourth-overall. Cale Makar, an undersized defenseman whose most noticeable flaw was that he hadn’t played against high-level competition, dropped into their laps.
They’d be even more excited when Conor Timmins, a more traditional two-way defenseman from the OHL would slip out of the first round entirely. Timmins had climbed to 18th on the CSS rankings among North American skaters—and fourth among North American defensemen—by the end of the 2016-17 season, and yet still fell all the way to Colorado at 32nd-overall.
The rest of the summer went relatively uneventful, with all eyes still on Duchene, and the season began with a relatively similar Avalanche squad. The on-ice performance wouldn’t look anything like the end of the previous year though, as Colorado would go 8-5-0 through their first 13 games, led by a determined Duchene and energized Nathan MacKinnon. Then, on November 5th against the New York Islanders, Blake Comeau would be helped off the ice and down the tunnel to assess an injury. Behind him, Duchene would slip away as well, just informed that he’d been traded to the Ottawa Senators mid-game.
That deal, the one that Sakic had been pursuing for months, came about by involving both Ottawa and the Nashville Predators. The Avalanche finally received their asking price of a young NHL-ready defenseman (Samuel Girard), top prospect (Vladislav Kamenev) and first-round pick. Amazingly, they also added another top prospect in Shane Bowers, and two additional draft picks (Nashville’s 2018 second-round pick, and Ottawa’s 2019 third-round pick). It’s more than anyone expected Sakic would get for a player that now had fewer than two years remaining on his contract.
Colorado would lose that game against the Islanders, and the next two against the Duchene-led Senators while in Sweden. But since then, the team has gone 11-9-2 and is still in the playoff mix in the Western Conference. Their 41 points puts them at the bottom of the Central Division, but only three points behind the Anaheim Ducks for the final wildcard spot. That’s a huge step forward for a team that finished with only 48 points total in 2016-17.
It’s not going to end there.
While Girard is showing that he’s ready for a full-time role in the NHL at the tender age of 19, Makar and Timmins are starring for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament. Makar started as the team’s seventh defenseman, but has shone as Canada deals with injuries to several older and more experienced players. Both defensemen scored today against Switzerland, skating together at even-strength. Timmins is part of a powerhouse Sault Ste. Marie team in the OHL that has lost just three games in regulation, and could be in line for a Memorial Cup berth.
Suddenly, when you start imagining a blueline patrolled by those three and an offense led by MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, only 22 and 21 respectively, the future doesn’t look so bleak in Colorado. Add in other high-upside players like Tyson Jost (19) and Alexander Kerfoot (23), a captain in Gabriel Landeskog who just turned 25, and four selections in the top two rounds in what is shaping up to be an incredible draft class, and it might not be very long until there is more than just hope in the Avalanche dressing room.
Avalanche Notes: Duchene, Compher, Bourque, Recalls
While many have expected the Avalanche to deal center Matt Duchene with him being in the rumor mill dating back to last season, some general managers around the league now believe that GM Joe Sakic is trying to convince Duchene to stick it out in Colorado, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported on a segment with WGR 550 in Buffalo (audio link). Duchene’s preference to be dealt has been well-known for a while now so on the surface, it would feel like a longshot for the team to convince him to rescind his trade request now after everything that has transpired; Dreger adds that he still expects a trade to happen at some point. Assuming Sakic could persuade him to stick it out with the Avs, Duchene still wouldn’t be able to sign a contract extension until July.
Despite his unhappiness with his situation, Duchene is off to a nice start this season with eight points (3-5-8) through ten games which have him tied for the team lead with blueliner Tyson Barrie. That will certainly allow Sakic to keep the asking price as high as it has been dating back to last season and afford him the time to try to convince Duchene to have a change of heart if that is indeed the route they’re now trying to go.
More from Colorado:
- Winger J.T. Compher is two-to-three weeks away from returning to the lineup as he continues his recovery from a broken thumb, head coach Jared Bednar told BSN Denver’s Adrian Dater. The 22-year-old continues to skate daily which should help in terms of conditioning when he gets the green light to return. In eight games this season, Compher has a goal and three assists while averaging a little over 15 minutes per night.
- Compher’s replacement now finds himself banged up as well as winger Gabriel Bourque suffered an upper-body injury last night, notes Betsy Helfand of the Denver Post. He left Friday’s loss against Vegas in the first period and did not return. Alexander Kerfoot also left the game in the third period. Bednar didn’t have an immediate update on either player.
- With those two injuries, the Avs announced (Twitter link) that they’ve promoted forwards Rocco Grimaldi and Andrew Agozzino from AHL San Antonio. The undersized Grimaldi has seen NHL action in each of the last three seasons while Agozzino is their top scorer at the minor league level with eight points through the first seven games of 2017-18. To make room for them on the roster, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post reports (Twitter link) that Bourque and Colin Wilson have been placed on IR.
Alex Kerfoot Signs With Colorado Avalanche
Thursday: The Avalanche have announced the signing, bringing in Kerfoot on a two-year entry-level contract worth $832K in the NHL.
Wednesday: In a stunning turn, NCAA free agent Alex Kerfoot has decided to sign with the Colorado Avalanche according to Darren Dreger of TSN. Dreger had included Colorado in Kerfoot’s “final five” last night, but not many people seemed to believe that he would end up with the Avalanche. The young center could step right into an NHL role with the club, though as we addressed last night there is likely a move to follow.
The 23-year old Kerfoot was selected in the fifth round by the New Jersey Devils in 2012, but became a free agent on August 16th when he failed to sign with the team. In four years at Harvard, he put up 123 points and captained the team during his senior season. A gifted playmaker, it’s still to be seen whether he can carry his offensive gifts to the professional level. A natural center he’ll have to fight for minutes along with Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher, as well as Matt Duchene if a trade isn’t reached before the season begins.
Dreger tweets that GM Joe Sakic “did a great job selling Kerfoot on his fit with the [Avalanche]” and that he could have a big role if a trade does go down. While MacKinnon and Jost were listed in Sakic’s untouchable group earlier this year, Compher is also expected to have a big role on the team going forward. There is always the possibility that Kerfoot or one of the others moves to the wing, but this does give them more depth should a Duchene move occur.
Like any NCAA free agent, excitement over Kerfoot should be limited until he shows that he has another level of play ready for the NHL. While his potential is promising, skating against players several years younger than you and with a much wider talent gap can hide deficiencies that will be exploited at the next level. Kerfoot will sign a two-year entry-level contract, and try to prove that he is one of the exceptions that was just underestimated in his draft year.
Poll: Where Will Alex Kerfoot Sign?
Last night Darren Dreger of TSN reported that NCAA free agent Alex Kerfoot had reduced his list of potential teams to five. Those he listed were the New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche. Arthur Staple and Steve Zipay of Newsday believe it’s even less than that, mentioning the Rangers and Sharks as the two finalists.
Kerfoot is from Vancouver, but could fit in as a depth center on many teams around the league. His senior season at Harvard went extremely well, registering 45 points in 36 games while taking over the captaincy from Jimmy Vesey. The New Jersey Devils were unable to sign him before the deadline, and he now has a chance very few young players are afforded: choose where to make your professional debut.
So where do you think he’ll land? There have been reports he could make his decision as soon as today, but it shouldn’t last much longer than a few days. If you believe a dark horse will swoop in at the last minute, make sure to leave it in the comments below.
Where will Alex Kerfoot sign?
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New York Rangers 39% (311)
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Colorado Avalanche 30% (243)
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Vancouver Canucks 12% (93)
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San Jose Sharks 9% (69)
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Other 6% (49)
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New York Islanders 4% (33)
Total votes: 798
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Alex Kerfoot Expected To Sign Soon
12:35pm: Larry Brooks of the New York Post is reporting that the Rangers are still in the mix, and that agent J.P. Barry expects a decision from Kerfoot before Wednesday.
10:16am: Several NCAA draft picks became unrestricted free agents last week when their teams failed to sign them by the deadline, and one of the most interesting ones was Alex Kerfoot. A fifth-round pick by New Jersey, Kerfoot completed his four year at Harvard instead of starting his professional career and like former teammate Jimmy Vesey last summer is now on the radar of several teams around the league.
Rick Dhaliwal of News 1130 in Vancouver reports that Kerfoot should make a decision soon on is future and that his hometown Canucks are still in the running. Kerfoot met with Vancouver last week but wasn’t ruling out any team that was after his services. The playmaking center is already 23, and could make an impact at the NHL level at some point this season. Though undersized, his tenacity and high-end offensive skill could result in a long professional career.
Dhaliwal also reports that the Canucks never did reach out to fellow NCAA free agent Will Butcher. Butcher certainly has a market after not signing with the Colorado Avalanche, but his Hobey Baker trophy as the nation’s best college player hasn’t resulted in the sort of frenzy Vesey created last year.
Expiring NCAA Draft Rights
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.
They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:
Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)
*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.
Snapshots: Kovalchuk, Kerfoot, Ruhwedel, Grabovski
There have been no discussions in the past two weeks between the Devils and Jay Grossman, the agent for winger Ilya Kovalchuk, GM Ray Shero told The Record’s Andrew Gross. Grossman does have permission to speak with other teams to gauge their interest and potentially attempt to broker a trade.
Kovalchuk retired from NHL and New Jersey back in 2013 but has played in the KHL since then. He has indicated that he would like to record to the NHL next season but will require a sign-and-trade to do so since it’s unlikely that all 30 teams will willingly sign off on his return. Although early indications are that Kovalchuk isn’t particularly interested in returning to play for the Devils, Shero hasn’t completely given up on hope on that happening just yet.
Other news and notes from around the hockey world:
- Still from Gross, there have been no talks between New Jersey and 2012 fifth rounder Alexander Kerfoot since the Frozen Four tournament. The Devils will lose the rights to the 22 year old on August 15th if they are unable to reach a deal. Kerfoot had a strong senior season at Harvard where he tied for the team lead in scoring with 45 points (19-26-45) in 36 games and would attract a lot of interest if he were to hit the open market.
- Penguins defenseman Chad Ruhwedel took part in yesterday’s morning skate as he works towards returning to the lineup from a concussion sustained in Game Four against Ottawa, notes Bill West of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The 27 year old has skated in six postseason games so far and, when healthy, will likely be the first to draw in if there are any more injuries to Pittsburgh’s back end between now and the end of the Stanley Cup Final.
- Although he was skating on his own during the second half of the season, Islanders center Mikhail Grabovski hasn’t recovered enough from his concussion symptoms to be eligible to be bought out this summer, reports Newsday’s Arthur Staple. The 33 year old last played in March of 2016 but carries a pricey cap hit of $5MM though he’ll likely be placed on LTIR once again if he doesn’t get the green light to return from team doctors at the start of next season.