Sean Couturier Out Four Weeks With Lower-Body Injury
The Philadelphia Flyers announced today that Sean Couturier would be out for the next four weeks with a lower-body injury, which was reported by TVA Sports last night to be a re-injuring of his knee. The injury occurred on August 10th, and Couturier will be limited during the start of training camp for the Flyers, but if everything goes right should be ready for the start of the season.
Couturier, 25, is coming off his best season as a professional and one in which he jumped from solid role player to elite two-way center. With Claude Giroux‘s move to the wing in Philadelphia, Couturier was given the first line center role and ran with it, scoring 31 goals and 76 points while logging nearly 22 minutes a night. He finished second in Selke Trophy voting as one of the league’s best defensive forwards, and was recently ranked one of the top-20 centers in the entire league by the NHL Network and here on PHR.
In the postseason, Couturier collided with Flyers defenseman Radko Gudas in practice and injured the MCL in his knee forcing him to miss the fourth game of their series against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Incredibly, Couturier was able to return for the fifth and sixth games of the series, recording a five-point game in a series-losing effort in game six. That kind of production is what the Flyers hope to get from Couturier this season, and will likely play it slow to make sure that he’s fully ready for the start of the regular season. With the team expected to once again compete for a playoff spot, they’ll need their star center in the lineup for as many games as possible.
Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?
It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?
To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.
Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.
Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.
Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.
At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.
Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.
What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?
Who Is The Early Favorite To Win The 2019 Hart Trophy?
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Connor McDavid 32% (273)
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Sidney Crosby 12% (102)
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The Field - comment below 11% (96)
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Nathan MacKinnon 11% (94)
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Nikita Kucherov 8% (64)
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John Tavares 7% (58)
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Taylor Hall 5% (43)
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Mark Scheifele 5% (43)
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Auston Matthews 5% (40)
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Alex Ovechkin 4% (31)
Total votes: 844
Previewing The August College Free Agent Market
On Wednesday, August 15th, all drafted players who went the NCAA route and graduated this spring will become free agents if they remain unsigned by the team that holds their NHL rights. Unlike the last couple of summers, which featured names like Will Butcher, Alexander Kerfoot, Jimmy Vesey and Matt Benning, there is no standout name in this year’s class of late summer college free agents. However, as of now, CapFriendly reports that 16 players are set to hit the market next week. Some of them will not be in search of an NHL contract. Brown forward Max Willman was granted an additional year of NCAA eligibility due to injury and has committed to Boston University next season as a graduate student-athlete. UConn’s David Drake has already worked out an AHL deal with the affiliate of the team that drafted him, the Philadelphia Flyers, and Wisconsin’s Matt Ustaski has a similar arrangement with the Winnipeg Jets. Cornell’s Jared Fiegl and Dwyer Tschantz have already accepted their place in the pro hockey hierarchy and signed ECHL contracts. All of these players can technically sign with an NHL team after August 15th, but it is unlikely.
So what of the other available players? Here is a quick summary of the eleven collegians you may see sign with an NHL team in the coming weeks and a prediction of where they’ll end up:
D Terrance Amorosa, Clarkson (PHI, Rd. 5 – 2013)
Amorosa is the most productive of the players on this list over his NCAA career and he accomplished that feat as a defenseman. A smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman, Amorosa’s 27 points were key to a hugely successful season for the Golden Knights. Whether his choice or Philadelphia’s, it is not a major surprise that the young defenseman-heavy Flyers weren’t a good fit. The Quebec native has been training with NHLers in Montreal this summer and seems poised to find NHL employment somewhere, with an AHL floor. Prediction: NHL contract
D Kelly Summers, Clarkson (OTT, Rd. 7 – 2014)
The only Clarkson defenseman with more points than Amorosa last season was frequent pair-mate Summers. Not only is Summers slightly younger than Amorosa, he is also a little bigger and played in more games over the duo’s four years in Potsdam. Summers, who is also a right shot, recorded 30 points last season for the Golden Knights and possesses a great first pass. He may not want to sign in Ottawa, but he’ll be happy to sign elsewhere. Like Amorosa, hard to see Summers signing at any level below the AHL. Prediction: NHL contract
F Judd Peterson, St. Cloud State (BUF, Rd. 7 – 2012)
If anything works against Peterson, it will be age and mileage, as the hard-working forward played in two USHL seasons in addition to four NCAA seasons since being drafted out of high school by Buffalo. Yet, that has also added to his hockey IQ and leadership ability as well. The Huskies captain put up respectable offense in each of his seasons at St. Cloud and by the end was also a responsible defensive asset. He even has a summer coaching gig at St. Cloud hockey camps. Peterson got a taste of the pro game with a brief tryout with the AHL’s Rochester Americans to end the year and seems like a good bet to challenge for an energy line role with an NHL team down the road, if not right away. Prediction: NHL contract
D Steven Johnson, Minnesota (LAK, Rd. 4 – 2014)
It’s somewhat surprising to see Johnson still unsigned. After wrapping up his season with the Gophers, Johnson jumped right in with the Kings’ AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign and didn’t look out of place in four games. The two-way defender led all Minnesota defensemen with 15 points last year and was one of the team’s ice time leaders. He will likely transition well to the AHL after facing tough Big Ten competition and could help an NHL club relatively soon as a depth option. Prediction: AHL contract
F Avery Peterson, Minnesota – Duluth (MIN, Rd. 6 – 2013)
Another strange player to see available, Peterson is a Minnesota native drafted by the Wild out of Grand Rapids High School and starring for Duluth over the past two years, including helping the team to a National Championship in April. Peterson got off to a rough start in his first two collegiate seasons at Nebraska-Omaha, but since transferring has really turned his game around. He isn’t a high-skill player, but he has the rare combination of both size and speed and can be a useful bottom-six player. He has okay odds of landing an NHL deal, but Minnesota did seem like the most likely spot. It seems more likely that he starts in the minors. Prediction: AHL contract
F Shane Eiserman, New Hampshire (OTT, Rd. 4 – 2014)
Eiserman is a good, consistent forward and a former member of the U.S. National Development Program. However, he has never quite reached the ceiling that some thought he may have. As a one-dimensional scoring forward with just pedestrian offensive numbers, Eiserman still needs to polish his game and find out where he fits at the pro level. Prediction: AHL contract
F Aidan Muir, Western Michigan (EDM, Rd. 4 – 2013)
A big, physical winger and a locker room leader for the Broncos, Muir is a nice asset for a team. However, the offense just isn’t there yet and the competition gets much harder at the next level. He can be a role player in the AHL and grow his game from there, but could slip into ECHL territory. Prediction: AHL contract
D Johnathan MacLeod, Boston University (TBL, Rd. 2 – 2014)
In this day and age, just playing for BU is a sign of talent. Add a second-round draft position and you may think that you’re looking at a Chad Krys clone. Unfortunately, MacLeod lacks similar potential. Amidst the talent of the Terriers blue line, MacLeod’s inability to make plays at the college level cost him games through the years. He never cracked double-digits in points and only mustered 3 points as a senior. Perhaps his ability will shine through at the AHL, as his resume alone should get him to that level to begin with. Prediction: AHL contract
D Michael Prapavessis, RPI (DAL, Rd. 4 – 2014)
Prapavessis put up good numbers in his college career, especially for a defenseman. Unfortunately, RPI simply isn’t an elite program and leading that team isn’t worth as much as others. Prapavessis has both talent and intelligence and could still be a surprise. He may wind up in the AHL right away, but more likely he will have to work his way up. Prediction: ECHL contract
D Jack Glover, Minnesota (WIN, Rd. 3 – 2014)
Glover may have led the Gophers in plus/minus last season and is certainly a defensive force, but his skating and offensive game simply leave too much to be desired. Prediction: ECHL contract
F Tyler Bird, Brown (CLB, Rd. 5 – 2014)
Bird got better offensively as his career with the Bears wore on, but he still was less than spectacular at putting up points. His lack of a defensive game leaves little upside otherwise. Prediction: ECHL contract
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Philadelphia Flyers
Current Cap Hit: $69,217,500 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Travis Konecny (one year remaining, $894K)
F Nolan Patrick (two years remaining, $925K)
D Ivan Provorov (one year remaining, $894K)
D Travis Sanheim (one year remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Konecny: $425K
Patrick: $2.65MM
Provorov: $850K
Sanheim: $450K
Total: $4.375MM
Few teams are getting the bang for their buck that the Flyers are. Provorov has established himself as a legitimate top pairing player already and will be in line for a big money, long-term deal next summer instead of a bridge contract. Sanheim played himself into a regular role for a big chunk of 2017-18 and the team is hoping he’ll turn that into a full-time nod next season. Even if he does that, a shorter-term second contract is likely in the cards for him.
Up front, Konecny more than doubled his goal production from his rookie campaign, going from 11 to 24 last season. If he can repeat that type of output, he should be in line to bypass the bridge deal as well. Patrick’s rookie campaign was fairly quiet but the team was in a situation where they didn’t have to give him big minutes right away. While he’ll be asked to take a bigger workload next season, he shouldn’t project to hit his $1.8MM of Schedule ‘A’ bonuses which will give the Flyers a little more wiggle room on the cap for 2018-19.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
G Brian Elliott ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Christian Folin ($800K, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($963K, RFA)
F Jori Lehtera ($4.7MM, UFA)
F Taylor Leier ($720K, RFA)
G Michal Neuvirth ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($2.35MM, UFA)
F Wayne Simmonds ($3.975MM, UFA)
F Jordan Weal ($1.75MM, UFA)
Simmonds is the most prominent player here by a considerable margin. He has provided the Flyers with significant value on his deal over the past several years and is renowned as one of the better pure power forwards around the league. There’s no doubt that the Flyers will want to keep him around but the question is should they? He’ll be 31 when the puck drops in 2019-20 when his new deal will kick in and physical wingers tend to have more dramatic declines as they age. On the flip side, he brings an element to the table that Philadelphia’s forward group is largely lacking otherwise. It wouldn’t be shocking to see GM Ron Hextall try to work out a shorter-term extension if that’s something that Simmonds is open to.
Philadelphia’s goaltending was a concern heading into last summer which is why they brought in Elliott to try to help things. Last season, the goaltending was still a concern and both netminders had issues staying healthy. The good news is that with both being on expiring deals, there’s no long-term risk here and if a team has someone go down midseason, the Flyers could conceivably look to move one and give one of their youngsters some more NHL action. Looking beyond 2018-19, there’s a good chance that they will look to bring in a more prominent starter on a short-term deal to bridge the gap until top prospect Carter Hart is ready to step in.
As for the rest of the group, the other UFA forwards appear to be candidates to leave next summer. Lehtera was a buyout candidate this summer but since the team has plenty of cap space, it makes sense for them to keep him so there’s no carryover to 2019-20. Raffl has seen his output dip in recent years while Weal didn’t thrive in his first full-time NHL opportunity. He’ll battle with Laughton for playing time and the winner between the two should be part of the plans beyond next year. Leier projects to be a depth winger while Folin gives the team some extra depth on the right side of the back end.
Two Years Remaining
D Radko Gudas ($3.35MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.15MM, RFA)
D Andrew MacDonald ($5MM, UFA)
F Dale Weise ($2.35MM, UFA)
This group features some of the Flyers’ bloated contracts. Weise has underwhelmed significantly since joined the team two summers ago and has struggled to hold down a fourth line spot in the lineup. MacDonald is a decent defender but is well overpaid for the role that he is best suited to play. Gudas certainly provides a physical element but isn’t going to bring much offensively to the table. The same can be said for Hagg but he’s on a good bridge deal for someone who is pegged to be a third pairing player next season.
Metropolitan Notes: Dundon, Schneider, Devils Defense, O’Brien
When Tom Dundon took ownership of the Carolina Hurricanes earlier this year, he said he was going to make changes. Trading one of its top scorers in Jeff Skinner certainly qualifies, but the owner made it clear that it wasn’t even a hard decision to make, according to Chip Alexander and Luke DeCock of the News & Observer.
“It had to be done,” Dundon said Friday. “The consensus in the organization, and it has been for a while, was it was better for all parties. It’s good for him, too.”
The team didn’t get a top return for the 26-year-old who has scored 204 goals for Carolina over the course of eight seasons. He had a no-trade clause and could have chosen to play out his final season in Carolina and then walk away leaving the Hurricanes with nothing to show for him. Instead, Carolina walked away with prospect Cliff Pu and three draft picks, none of which are first-round picks. Buffalo has three of them in 2019.
“This was not money motivated,” Dundon said. “This was simply that we think the team has a better chance to perform at the level we think it can perform at right now.”
- New Jersey goaltender Cory Schneider isn’t going to be rushed back after undergoing hip surgery this offseason, according to Corey Masisak of The Athletic (subscription required). The 32-year-old goaltender had another turbulent season in which he started the season strong, struggled and then fared well to end the season. He finished the season with a 2.93 GAA and a .907 save percentage in 40 games, his worst season statistically of his career. Masisak says the timetable for Schneider to return remains murky and general manager Ray Shero has commented on Pekka Rinne‘s post-surgery success on multiple occasions, suggesting the team will almost certainly be starting the season with Keith Kinkaid as their starter.
- With four top defenders on their roster, the New Jersey Devils have to choose their new pairings between Sami Vatanen, Will Butcher, Andy Greene and Damon Severson. While the obvious choice might be that Vatanen and Greene should remain together as their shutdown line, Todd Cordell of HockeyBuzz writes that they should look at a different option which would be to match Severson with Greene instead, pointing out that Severson’s numbers alongside Greene have been as good, if not better, than Vatanen’s. That would leave Butcher with Vatanen, which could also provide a solid pairing.
- Bill Meltzer of NHL.com writes that the Philadelphia Flyers walked away with a good feeling about many of their prospects at the World Junior Summer Showcase today, especially with the success of their 2018 first-round pick Jay O’Brien. The 18-year-old has not had much of an opportunity to play against top competition against his own age, but thrived in the game against Canada where he was named Player of the Game for Team USA after potting two goals and showing a great defensive presence.
Flyers Re-Sign Robert Hagg To Two-Year Deal
UPDATE: The Flyers have now confirmed the extension with Hagg.
The Philadelphia Flyers have signed their final restricted free agent, agreeing to an extension with defenseman Robert Hagg. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie was the first to report that the two sides have come to terms on a two-year, $2.3MM contract. CapFriendly adds that Hagg will make $1MM this year and $1.3MM next year, with a cap hit of $1.15MM. The 2013 second-rounder will again be a restricted free agent at the end of this deal.
This is a very team-friendly conclusion to lengthy negotiations between the Flyers and Hagg. Although Hagg was a rookie last season, the 22-year-old showed positioning and composure of a much older, more experienced blue liner. Hagg led all rookies with 238 hits, a mark that was also tied for seventh-best among all players. He also did so with just 32 penalty minutes on the year. Additionally, Hagg led all rookies in blocked shots. He stepped into a top-four role with the Flyers without any difficulty and showed the potential to be a dominant shutdown defender.
As such, many expected that the Flyers would jump into an expensive, long-term deal for the young rearguard. Instead, the played it safe, taking a short term and very comfortable salary instead of trying to figure out long-term value. Philadelphia has a plethora of talented young defenseman, including Ivan Provorov who will need an extension next summer, and were smart not to set a precedent that they all deserve massive extensions. The team will likely enjoy great value for Hagg over the next two years, after which they will have to pay him his due for a strong defensive game that few others his age possess.
The Contract Each Team Would Most Like To Trade: Part III
Nearly every team has one of those players: a top talent they were excited to sign and never thought could do anything but help them. In hindsight, history shows that more often than not, expensive, long-term free agent contracts don’t work out. It may look good at first (or it may look bad right away to the outside observer), but players struggle to make their value last throughout a lengthy contract. Those contracts come back to bite teams and are hard to get rid of. As teams begin to finalize their rosters at this point in the off-season, many are struggling to make everyone fit under the salary cap and are regretting these past signings that exasperate a cap crunch that can be tough for even a mistake-free club. We already took a look at the first third and second third of the league; here are the contracts that each of the final ten teams would most like to trade, from Philadelphia to Winnipeg:
Philadelphia Flyers: Andrew MacDonald – two years, $10MM remaining
Based purely on salary versus what he brings to the table, Jori Lehtera‘s $4.7MM contract is the worst on the Flyers. However, Philadelphia is far from cap trouble this season, currently among the five lightest payrolls in the league, and Lehtera’s deal expires after this season. However, next year the Flyers will need to re-sign or replace Wayne Simmonds, hand new deals to Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny, and likely find a new starting goalie. The cap crunch will be much more real and the over-inflated $5MM contract of Andrew MacDonald will hurt. MacDonald’s six-year, $30MM contract was immediately panned by the public and it wasn’t long after that he was buried in the minors for cap relief and to keep him out of the lineup. MacDonald simply is not the player he was with the New York Islanders earlier in his career when he could eat major minutes, was stellar in man-to-man defense, and could block shots with the best. What he is being paid now is far beyond what he is actually worth. Some would say that Radko Gudas is worse, but that is an argument that suffers from recency bias. Combining the past two seasons, Gudas actually has the same amount of points as MacDonald in fewer games and less ice time, a better plus/minus rating, far more shots, and of course infinitely more hits. At $3.35MM for the next two years, Gudas is a far better deal.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Carl Hagelin – one year, $4MM remaining
The real answer is that GM Jim Rutherford would not like to trade any more players. He already ditched two of his worst contracts by sending Matt Hunwick and Conor Sheary to the Buffalo Sabres and he isn’t eager to make another salary dump. However, the reality is that Rutherford is going to find it hard to manipulate his roster this season with just over $1MM in cap space. As such, it is likely that another Penguin could be on the move. An outside observer could easily point to the Jack Johnson contract as one that stands little chance of maintaining its value over the term and the same argument could be made for Patric Hornqvist as well. However, Rutherford just signed those deals and wouldn’t move them even if he could. That leaves a short list of players who could be moved and the only one that sticks out as being overpriced is Carl Hagelin. Hagelin has played an important part of the Penguins’ reign over the past few years, but at $4MM he has not cracked 40 points in any of the three seasons and can go cold for weeks at a time. Rutherford won’t make a move unless it can benefit the team, but if he can get another scoring winger in exchange for a package that dumps Hagelin’s salary, he’ll do it.
San Jose Sharks: None
Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, and Paul Martin are all gone. Two top forwards, the two best defensemen, and the starting goalie are all locked up long-term at a reasonable rate. The Sharks have almost $4.5MM in cap space this season, giving them room to add. Congratulations to GM Doug Wilson and his staff. This roster is the epitome of cap compliance mixed with depth and talent. There is not one contract that the team would be interested in dumping.
St. Louis Blues: Alexander Steen – three years, $17.25MM remaining
The Blues currently have all but $285K of their cap space committed to 24 players. The team may send Chris Thorburn or Jordan Nolan down to the AHL, but will only gain marginal space. Something else has to give. If they could target any player to move to alleviate some pressure, it would be Alexander Steen. With just seven forwards and three defensemen (as of now) signed beyond next season and the majority of players in line for raises or free agent replacements, these cap woes aren’t going away anytime soon and an expensive long-term deal needs to be shipped out. Understandably, St. Louis is all in this season and wouldn’t be eager to ship out an important top-six piece. However, Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, and Jaden Schwartz are the new young core up front now and paying 34-year-old Steen $5.75MM for three more years for declining production just doesn’t make sense. The Blues could potentially land some nice pieces from another contender for Steen as well. Admittedly, the Tyler Bozak contract looks even worse than Steen’s, but the Blues won’t be looking to trade a player they just signed.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Ryan Callahan – two years, $11.6MM remaining
The long-term implications of several other deals aside, the Lightning’s Stanley Cup window is wide open and their focus is on the here and now. The one player really impeding their ability to add freely to the roster is Ryan Callahan. While GM Steve Yzerman has excelled at extending most of his core below market value, the six-year, $34.8MM contract for Callahan was a mistake. Injuries limited Callahan to just 18 games in 2016-17, but last year he played in 67 games yet he only managed to score 18 points. Callahan’s days as an impact player are over, but he is still being paid like one at $5.8MM. While Tampa Bay can manage this season with close to $3MM in cap space, they would have more to work with without him. However, Callahan’s contract will really present a major road block next summer, when the Bolts need to re-sign Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and more. There is no doubt that Yzerman will look to unload Callahan’s contract before it comes to that point.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nikita Zaitsev – six years, $27MM remaining
The Maple Leafs severely jumped the gun when they rewarded Nikita Zaitsev with a seven-year deal after his rookie season in 2016-17. Although Zaitsev was an import, making his NHL debut at 25 years old, his situation epitomizes why bridge deals exist. Toronto sought to lock him up long term and gave him nearly a maximum term at $4.5MM, just $500K less per year than top defender Morgan Rielly. In his encore performance last season, he showed that he is not worthy of the salary nor length of that contract, dropping from 36 points to 13 points for the year, turning the puck over at an alarming rate, and eventually becoming a healthy scratch. This team simply can’t afford the type of long-term mistake that they made with Zaitsev. While it’s nice that they have Reilly, John Tavares, and Nazem Kadri signed long-term, it’s Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander they need to worry about. The Maple Leafs will have to balance multiple expensive, long-term deals moving forward and would love for Zaitsev’s to not be one of them.
Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson – four years, $24MM remaining
It seems unlikely that the recently-signed deals for Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel will work out well, but they at least deserve some time. Loui Eriksson has had his time and has done nothing with it. While the Canucks aren’t under any cap pressure, they can’t enjoy seeing Eriksson’s $6MM cap hit – the highest on the team – on the books for four more years, especially when the bulk of his front-loaded salary has already been paid out. Eriksson was brought in with an expectation that he would be the ultimate fit with Daniel and Henrik Sedin. Instead, he has scored just 47 points combined over two seasons, less than his final season total with the Boston Bruins. The Sedins are now gone, the team is trying to get both younger and more physical and defensive-minded, and Eriksson is simply an expensive poor fit. There’s not much more to say about a player who desperately needs a change of scenery and a team that wants him gone.
Vegas Golden Knights: None
The Golden Knights are riding high after an outrageously successful first season in the NHL. It is highly unlikely that they see anything wrong with their current contracts, almost all of which were either hand-picked or signed by GM George McPhee. Give it some time and that could change. Reilly Smith is notorious for a significant drop in production in his second year with a team, but is signed for four more years at $5MM. Paul Stastny for three years at $6.5MM per seems like a solid deal, but he has always produced better surrounded by equal talent. Does Vegas have enough to justify his signing? A $2.775MM cap hit for Ryan Reaves doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Finally, there’s the three-year, $21MM extension for heroic goalie but also 33-year-old well-worn vet Marc-Andre Fleury, which could end poorly. And this isn’t even counting what could be a massive reactionary contract for one-year breakout star William Karlsson. The Knights don’t see any problems right now after finding immediate success, but if they slide significantly in year two, things could get ugly.
Washington Capitals: T.J. Oshie – seven years, $40.25MM remaining
No, it’s not Tom Wilson. The call of the question is which contract each team wants to trade, not which is objectively the worst. Wilson’s contract does seem excessive, but he is just 24 and could grow into that salary (doubtful but possible). Plus, the organization loves what he brings to the team. T.J. Oshie on the other hand is heading in the wrong direction. Oshie has done what he was brought in to do: help the Capitals win the Stanley Cup. It took a max eight-year term to keep Oshie off the market last summer and now Washington has their Cup but also has a 31-year-old with diminishing returns signed for seven more years. Oshie could absolutely still help the Capitals over the next few years, but it’s doubtful that he will be back in 60-point range in that time. He also will be nothing more than a cap space vacuum when he’s in his late thirties making $5.75MM. Oshie is a great player and one of the more likeable guys in the league, but this contract has little upside left. The Capitals would at the very least consider trading Oshie now, which can’t be said for most of their other core players.
Winnipeg Jets: Jacob Trouba – one year, $5.5MM remaining
The list ends with a tricky one. Is $5.5MM a fair value for Trouba? An arbitrator thinks so and the Jets would likely agree. However, Trouba’s contract has been a nightmare for the team. The young defenseman clearly does not want to be in Winnipeg and has set himself up for yet another arbitration clash next summer, after which he will bolt in free agency. The Jets have no long-term security with Trouba and that meddles with their future planning. With Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers, and several others also in need of new contracts next summer, the Jets don’t need another Trouba arbitration award cutting into their cap space just so that he can walk after the season. The team will definitely look to get maximum value in a trade for Trouba over the next season.
Snapshots: Hughes, Hanrahan, Hunter
While Quinn Hughes has decided to head back to the University of Michigan for another year, he won’t be joined by brother Jack Hughes this season. The younger of the two, Jack, is expected to be the first-overall selection next June and according to Mike Morreale of NHL.com will spend his draft year playing with the US National Team Development Program once again. That likely means he’ll never be heading to the collegiate ranks, as he’s widely expected to step right into the NHL for the 2019-20 season given his incredible talent.
The two will get a chance to play together on a big stage at the World Junior Championship in late December, as both are basically locks for a team that is exploding with talent. The pair are currently playing at the World Junior Summer Showcase in Kamloops, British Columbia before Quinn returns to Michigan and Jack takes his place with the NTDP.
- Ryan Poehling meanwhile won’t play in any of the Summer Showcase games according to Morreale, after he underwent surgery on July 7th. Poehling had tonsilitis and a deviated septum dealt with, and instead is skating on his own at the tournament getting ready for his junior year at St. Cloud State. The Montreal Canadiens draft pick will likely be a returnee for the US World Junior squad, after recording three points in seven games during their bronze medal run last time around. Poehling is another one of the Montreal center prospects that will try to solve their lengthy struggles down the middle, and could easily be playing professional hockey by the end of the 2018-19 season.
- The Philadelphia Flyers have named Barry Hanrahan Vice President, in addition to his current title of Assistant General Manager. Hanrahan has been with the club for more than two decades filling various roles, and is a key part of their front office.
- Mark Hunter is now eligible to be hired by any team in the league, after the Toronto Maple Leafs deal with him ended on July 15, but as Craig Custance of The Athletic (subscription required) writes, it makes sense that he’s taking his time. Custance spoke to one of Hunter’s former colleagues in Lindsay Hofford—recently hired by the Arizona Coyotes—who extolled the virtues and successes of Hunter over the years. There’s an obvious desire from Hunter to become an NHL GM, something even Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas explained when he was given the job, but no clear openings right now. Whether he’ll accept another role as an assistant isn’t clear, but he remains a strong candidate.
Minnesota Wild Sign Matt Read
Matt Read, fresh off an expensive contract that didn’t quite work out with the Philadelphia Flyers, has signed with the Minnesota Wild for the 2018-19 season. Read has agreed to a one-year, two-way contract that will pay him the minimum $650K at the NHL level.
Read, 32, hadn’t yet started the third season of his NHL career when he signed a four-year, $14.5MM contract extension in September of 2013. The undrafted forward had been one of the most successful NCAA free agent signings in recent history, scoring 24 goals as a rookie in 2011-12 and 24 points in just 42 games during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. He followed the extension with another good season during the last year of his first contract, but things quickly deteriorated thereafter. In 2014-15 he scored just eight goals and 30 points, the highest point total he would register during the four-year deal. That even led to a demotion to the minor leagues this past season, after clearing waivers without any interest.
Still, there’s very little risk in this signing for the Wild. A legendary player for Bemidji State University, he’ll return to Minnesota to try and resurrect his professional career. Whether that means he’ll get a chance at any NHL time with the Wild isn’t clear, but at the very least he can provide a veteran scoring threat for the Iowa Wild—another state he’s familiar with from his time with the Des Moines Buccaneers of the USHL. Read scored just a single goal in the NHL last season, but did add 16 points in his 33 AHL contests and could have some real offensive ability left if assigned to the minor leagues. On a minimum deal, if he shows anything in camp he would be an extremely inexpensive option for Minnesota.
Snapshots: Pacioretty, Lucic, Simmonds, Vilardi
The Montreal Canadiens look like they have no choice but to trade their star player in Max Pacioretty. With the 29-year-old entering the final year of his contract and little interest from Montreal to lock him up to a long-term deal, this is their only chance to move him. However, what makes things challenging for general manager Marc Bergevin and the Canadiens is that Pacioretty is coming off a disappointing year in which he produced just 17 goals in injury-plagued season after posting four straight years of 30 or more goals.
However, time is not Bergevin’s friend and the team has little choice but to try to move his contract now rather than wait to trade him as a rental in February. NBC Sports Joey Alfieri suggests five teams that might be good fits for Pacioretty with the Chicago Blackhawks leading the way. Pacioretty would be the perfect fit for Chicago considering the team’s biggest acquisition this offseason has been backup goaltender Cam Ward. However, the Blackhawks might be challenged to put together a quality package for Pacioretty.
However, another more interesting option would be the New Jersey Devils, who have the cap space to make it work and Pacioretty, a native of Connecticut – a mere 70 miles away — might be willing to stay with a team that already has an intruiging cast including Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall.
- In a recent podcast on Spittin’ Chiclets, Edmonton Oilers forward Milan Lucic talked about his disappointing season in Edmonton which has his name and his contract being thrown around in potential trade rumors. Regardless, Lucic had nothing but great things to say about the Oilers’ organization and takes a lot of the blame for his poor season. Lucic, who signed a seven-year, $42MM deal in 2016, still has five years remaining at $6MM AAV. However, after posting 23 goals and 50 points in the first year of his deal, Lucic’s numbers took a nosedive as he tallied just 10 goals and 34 points and he didn’t miss a single game all season. “I think it was definitely more of a mental thing,” Lucic said. “It was almost like everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for our team and for me personally and it was the snowball effect or the quicksand effect. I think my mindset got very negative last year. So I was almost my own worst enemy, where this year I’m just going in with a happy, healthier mindset.”
- Dave Isaac of the Cherry Hill Courier-Post writes that Philadelphia Flyers general manager Ron Hextall has kept a close on the New York Islanders and John Tavares situation and isn’t interested in letting any of his players go. With winger Wayne Simmonds entering the final year of his contract, will probably price himself out of Philadelphia and the fact that he likely will end up on the team’s third line this year, don’t be surprised if Hextall trades Simmonds at the trade deadline next year. The 29-year-old has put up 28 or more goals for the past four years in Philadelphia, but struggled with nagging injuries last year, tallying 24 goals.
- The Athletic’s Lisa Dillman reports that Los Angeles Kings prospect Gabe Vilardi will not be participating in the World Junior Showcase for Hockey Canada after Vilardi suffered a back injury. While not considered serious, Vilardi has had issues with his back before as he missed all but 32 games this past year with the OHL Kingston Frontenacs. Vilardi, the team’s first-round pick in 2017, will have a chance to break into the Kings’ lineup if he has a good showing in training camp.