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Trade Deadline Notes: Nelson, Boeser, Panthers

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The Trade Deadline has appeared over the horizon and teams like the Colorado Avalanche are already doing what they can to get out ahead of the pack. They acquired forward Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Ryan Lindgren from the New York Rangers this weekend, and could still be attached to some of the market’s top names. That includes New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson per The Fourth Period, who adds Nelson could be the cheap acquisition Colorado needs to bolster their top-six.

Nelson, 33, is in the sunset years of his career but he’s still managing to produce. He has 19 goals and 41 points in 60 games this season, just one point behind Anders Lee and Bo Horvat for the team-lead in scoring. Nelson also earned a nod from USA Hockey by making this year’s 4-Nations Face-Off roster, where he played in four games but didn’t manage any scoring.

Nelson scored 36 goals and a career-high 75 points in 2022-23, and followed it with 34 goals and 69 points last season. He may be beginning to slow down but his offense could be spurred once again with a move away from the Isalnders – the only NHL team Nelson has ever played for. Because of that exclusivity, New York will certainly need a convincing offer to part ways with one of their top scorers. Nelson also has a 16-team no-trade clause on his contract, which is set to expire this summer. That could help him dictate where he ends up – though the 2022 Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche would certainly be a fine landing spot as the vet chases his first Cup win.

Other notes swirling around the Trade Deadline:

  • Recent reports have pointed towards an impasse forming between the Vancouver Canucks and Brock Boeser after the winger declined a five-year, $40MM contract extension. Now it seems the wedge could be driven in further, with TSN’s Darren Dreger sharing that the extension offer has been rescinded and that the team is exploring all options. Boeser is struggling to follow-up after scoring a career-high 40 goals last season – but he’s still performing at a higher level than in his early career. He has 18 goals and 36 points in 53 games this season, putting him on pace for 28 goals and 56 points on the year. That’s helped along by Boeser’s 17.3 shoting percentage this season – a step down from his 19.6 percent last year but still far above his career average of 14 percent. A high shooting percentage could be inflating Boeser’s numbers, or he could have finally found the goal-scoring groove he was looking for. With offers no longer on the table, it seems that answer will be found by a deadline buyer in need of shooting talent. Boeser has a modified no-trade clause that allows him to exempt 10 teams. His deal expires this summer.
  • The Florida Panthers helped break the market open with their swap of top goalie prospect Spencer Knight for top defenseman Seth Jones. That move pushed Florida right up against the wall of the salary cap – but they’ve opened up more breathing room by placing star Matthew Tkachuk on long-term injured reserve. Florida is now projected to have $8.71MM in cap space on deadline day, per PuckPedia, and they’re expected to use it. Chris Johnston of The Athletic shared that Panthers general manager Bill Zito has proven ambitious in years past, and could see a chance to bolster his lineup a bit further. The Panthers have made the Stanley Cup Finals in each of the last two seasons, and took away hardware last year. They’ll have their sights fully trained on repeating the feat this year – and a boost to their depth offense or a new backup goaltender would go far towards solidifying their chances.

Panthers Hope To Get Matthew Tkachuk Back For The Playoffs

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The Florida Panthers are hopeful that they will get star forward Matthew Tkachuk back into the lineup for the playoffs (as per George Richards of NHL.com). Panthers’ general manager spoke Monday saying that Tkachuk would be out for “an extended period of time” but didn’t mention any concrete dates for a potential return to action.

The 27-year-old suffered a lower-body injury during the 4 Nations Face-Off and missed the United States’ third round robin game against Sweden and skated for just 6:47 in the final against Canada. Tkachuk has not skated since the end of that tournament.

The Panthers placed Tkachuk on long-term injured reserve yesterday and can bank that cap space under the salary cap, which could open the door for more moves even though Florida just picked up defenseman Seth Jones over the weekend. The Panthers will likely be busy this week as they look to add to their lineup in hopes of defending their Stanley Cup title. Cap space is unlikely to be an issue for Florida to make moves at the deadline, however, finding assets to trade could be a problem. The Panthers do not have a single draft pick in the first three rounds of this year’s NHL Entry Draft and have just a second-round pick in the first three rounds of next year’s draft. Their prospect situation is even more dire as the Panthers were recently ranked dead last in the NHL in prospect pool rankings by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic.

It’s hard to imagine the team going deep without Tkachuk, who has been their heart and soul since coming over from Calgary in July 2022. Tkachuk has posted 22 goals and 35 assists in 52 games this season and has helped lead the Panthers to a 37-21-3 record which is good enough for second in the Atlantic Division. Tkachuk has been instrumental in getting Florida to the Stanley Cup Finals in back-to-back seasons, posting 17 goals and 29 assists in 44 playoff games since joining the Panthers.

Latest On The Pittsburgh Penguins

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The Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t expected to have a fire sale prior to the NHL Trade Deadline but they could be one of the busier teams this week according to Josh Yohe of The Athletic. Yohe projects that the Penguins will try and get their bigger moves done mid-week because they will be in Las Vegas on Friday and will have a difficult time getting players to the West Coast if they make moves right at the Deadline.

Yohe believes that Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas and his management team may have altered their plans due to the market shifting and becoming much more of a seller’s market. There are only six teams that are truly in sell mode, and this has led to first round picks being moved routinely in recent weeks. The Penguins have already acquired one in the swap with Vancouver for Marcus Pettersson and could be looking to land another for Rickard Rakell.

Dubas has been stockpiling young assets since last year’s Trade Deadline and is expected to move out more veterans in favor of futures. Most of the roster appears to be in play except for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, and likely Kris Letang.

Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, and forwards Anthony Beauvillier and Noel Acciari are available and Yohe speculates that at least one of them will be moved. Grzelcyk and Beauvillier are UFAs this summer and are unlikely to remain in Pittsburgh long term, so moving them makes sense even though the return will be minimal. Acciari seems the least likely to go as he has another year on his deal at $2MM and Dubas has always had an affinity for the 33-year-old.

Then there is the Erik Karlsson $10MM question. Yohe guesses that a summer deal is more likely for the three-time Norris Trophy winner as no trade talks have happened yet and he hasn’t been asked to waive his no-trade clause. Penguins’ management reportedly believes that Karlsson would be willing to go to other teams, but the list of potential destinations isn’t long.

Several Western Conference teams have expressed interest in forward Rakell, but the Penguins don’t feel any pressure to move him. That being said, given that few teams are selling the Penguins might get an offer in the final few days that is too hard to refuse.

Regardless of what the Penguins do, it’s hard to imagine that they make any moves in net, the team reportedly would like to keep Alex Nedeljkovic around to mentor their younger goaltenders, and Tristan Jarry is unmovable at this point, other than perhaps swapping him for another overpriced player who is underperforming.

Blackhawks Place Philipp Kurashev On IR, Louis Crevier Recalled

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The Chicago Blackhawks have placed forward Philipp Kurashev on the injured reserve and recalled defenseman Louis Crevier from the Rockford IceHogs of the AHL (as per NHL.com). Kurashev is dealing with a hand injury, and his IR placement is retroactive to February 27th.

Kurashev is having a tough season with just six goals and four assists in 42 games. The timing for him is unfortunate as he will be a restricted free agent on July 1st and has gone from potentially signing a long-term extension to a possible non-tender candidate. A season ago, the Swiss-born center looked like a piece of the Blackhawks core as he posted career highs with 18 goals and 36 assists in 75 games. However, a big drop in his production has been due to his lack of time on the powerplay. Kurashev has gone from 221 minutes of powerplay time last season to just 20 minutes this year and has just one point with the man advantage this season compared to 19 points last year.

The Blackhawks will have an interesting decision to make this summer on Kurashev as they weigh what to do with the talented but inconsistent 25-year-old. His injury likely prevents them from dealing him before the NHL Trade Deadline and it is hard to imagine they let him walk for nothing in the summer.

Crevier returns to the Blackhawks where he has suited up in 23 games this season. The 23-year-old has three goals and an assist this season along with 47 hits and 34 blocked shots. Crevier has logged almost 18 minutes a game at the NHL level this season and Chicago has not done him any favors with their deployment starting him in the defensive zone on 68.9% of his shifts. As you would expect with a young defenseman, this has led to struggles as Crevier has been caved in on his possession numbers (37.8% all situations CF%) and has caused a lot of turnovers (26) as he’s tried to force zone exits while under pressure.

Penguins Place Pierre-Olivier Joseph On Injured Reserve

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The Penguins announced they’ve placed defenseman Pierre-Olivier Joseph on injured reserve. There’s no corresponding transaction for now, so they’re left with an open roster spot.

Joseph, 25, quietly departed Saturday’s loss to the Bruins with an upper-body injury in the first period, not before laying a huge hit on Boston captain Brad Marchand. He was held out of yesterday’s loss to the Maple Leafs as a result, allowing Ryan Graves to re-enter the lineup after he sat as a healthy scratch against the Bs.

It’s Joseph’s first IR placement of what’s been an expressly disappointing season for the 2017 first-round pick. He was non-tendered by Pittsburgh last summer and signed a one-year deal with the Blues on the open market, but found his way back to the Pens when they acquired him in mid-December for future considerations.

Joseph has posted decent possession metrics (51.5 CF%, 47.4 xGF% at even strength) since the move, but they haven’t translated to the scoresheet. He has just one assist in 24 appearances with a -15 rating, averaging 17:20 per game. It’s a far cry from the 21 points he posted in 75 games with Pittsburgh in 2022-23 that earned him some very fringe Calder Trophy consideration.

The ex-Coyotes prospect, initially acquired by Pittsburgh in the 2021 Phil Kessel trade, has fallen out of the regular lineup as a result. He’s been a healthy scratch on a few occasions recently as the Pens look to work in new additions Vincent Desharnais and Vladislav Kolyachonok into depth roles.

Joseph is slated for restricted free agency this summer, but with how things are trending, the Penguins will likely release him for the second season in a row. He’ll be hard-pressed to find a raise on his $950K cap hit for 2024-25.

Utah Signs Olli Määttä To Three-Year Extension

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Utah HC announced they’ve signed pending free agent defenseman Olli Määttä to a three-year extension. The contract is worth $10.5MM with an even $3.5MM base salary and cap hit each season, PuckPedia reports.

The deal is a demonstration of Määttä’s re-emergence as a top-four piece on the Utah blue line. After being underutilized and relegated to a fringe bottom-pairing role with the Red Wings in the past couple of seasons, he was traded to Utah for a third-round pick a few weeks in late October. Utah, at the time, needed veteran insurance on defense with Sean Durzi and John Marino out long-term and relieved Detroit of his $3MM cap hit in the process.

For his low acquisition cost, the Club has been rewarded. His underlying metrics remained strong as his minutes were slashed in Detroit, signaling he should still be a more effective complementary defensive piece in heavier minutes. Määttä has proved that suspicion right in Salt Lake, posting 2-12–14 in 51 games with a plus-seven rating while averaging 20:41 per game, only the second time he’s averaged north of 20 in his 12-year career. His possession numbers – a 51.4% share of shot attempts and 48.6% expected goals share at even strength – are decent considering he’s started over 55% of his shifts in the defensive zone, the second-highest mark of his career.

While a lefty, the 6’2″ Määttä can comfortably play both sides. He’s done so for a good chunk of the season, playing top-pairing minutes to the right of Mikhail Sergachev while Durzi and Marino were out. Since they returned, he’s shifted back to his natural left side to form Utah’s second pairing with the right-shot Durzi. That pairing has controlled 58.3% of expected goals in 70 minutes of deployment together, per MoneyPuck.

He’s fit in well as a shutdown piece in Utah’s possession-reliant system under head coach André Tourigny. Utah ranks top five in the league at controlling shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger chances at even strength, but league-average goaltending on the whole from their hot (Karel Vejmelka) and cold (Connor Ingram) tandem means their team defense is only 15th in the league. He logs heavy penalty-killing minutes, too, and doesn’t grade out as the offensive liability he was at points earlier in his career. His play as a veteran stopgap is a significant reason why Utah still has a chance at the postseason, sitting two points back of the Flames for the final wild-card spot in the Western Conference.

A three-year term is of value to the 30-year-old Määttä as well as the team. He lands some stability after suiting up for five teams in the last seven years, while Utah avoids locking themselves into a deal that takes him into his mid-30s, when his play will likely decline.

Utah now has six defensemen signed to one-way deals for next season, so it stands to reason veteran pending UFA Ian Cole could be on his way out at the deadline for the right price. They now have $25MM in projected cap space for 2024-25 with only six roster spots to fill, and with Vejmelka as the only potential high-cost pending UFA, they’re in good position to make a big splash for a forward on this summer’s free agent market.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Penguins Sign Finn Harding To Entry-Level Deal

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The Penguins announced they’ve signed defense prospect Finn Harding to a three-year, entry-level deal. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Harding, 20, was an overage selection by the Pens in the seventh round of last year’s draft. The 6’2″ righty was initially eligible for selection in 2023. However, he was passed over after recording only 10 points in 63 games in his rookie season with the Ontario Hockey League’s Mississauga (now Brampton) Steelheads.

The Toronto native emerged as a threat in Mississauga last season, leading the club with a +39 rating and adding 10-24–34 in 68 games. That was enough to warrant a late-round flyer from Pittsburgh, who must be pleased with their selection. Harding has now clicked near a point per game after the franchise relocated to Brampton, ranking fourth on the club in scoring with 7-48–55 through 59 games. He again leads the team with a +43 rating to boot, quickly emerging as one of the OHL’s better two-way defenders in what figures to be his final junior season.

Harding’s deal doesn’t go into effect until the 2025-26 campaign and isn’t eligible for a slide given his age, so he’ll be a restricted free agent upon expiry in 2028. He’s a likely candidate to finish out the season with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on a tryout if their season extends past Brampton’s.

His semi-delayed development isn’t necessarily the strongest indicator of future NHL success, even with how well he’s played this year with Brampton. His transition to playing in the pros on a full-time basis next year, whether in the AHL or ECHL, will be an important factor to monitor to get a better idea of his upside as a full-time NHLer down the line.

The Penguins now have 12 defensemen under contract for next season after Harding’s signing.

Stars, Wyatt Johnston Discussing Eight-Year Extension

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The Stars are putting forth their best effort to finalize an extension for emerging center Wyatt Johnston before Friday’s trade deadline, Jeff Marek of Daily Faceoff reports Monday. There’s a mutual desire for a maximum eight-year commitment, but Dallas’ offers have ranged between $8MM and $8.5MM annually, Marek writes.

That’s not likely enough to convince Johnston to extend before becoming a restricted free agent this summer. The 21-year-old is fourth on the Stars in goals (24), third in assists (34), and third in points (55) through 60 games. His 19:08 ATOI leads Dallas forwards and is a decent margin ahead of second-place Jason Robertson (17:45).

He’s not technically centering Dallas’ designated top line beside Robertson – that honor still goes to Roope Hintz. In fact, Johnston’s even-strength role has been on what’s technically the Stars’ third line between veterans Jamie Benn and Evgenii Dadonov. He’s also spent a good bit of time with Hintz and Robertson at even strength, though, flexing between wing and center with the former. The edge in ice time above Dallas’ other top forwards largely comes from his penalty kill usage. He’s played a major role shorthanded for the Stars this season, averaging 1:33 per game and factoring in on their top PK unit with Benn.

All this is to say that Johnston is beginning to solidify himself as Dallas’ top center, even if he’s not a first-line fixture. The Stars’ proposition that he should be in the same pay range as Hintz ($8.45MM) amid a rising cap while being seven years younger with better point production is thus an incredibly tough sell for Johnston’s camp, led by Octagon’s Andy Scott.

Among pending RFAs, Johnston’s 55 points are tied with the Jets’ Gabriel Vilardi for most in the league. Dallas must tread carefully here – with only seven forwards under contract for next season and under $25MM in projected cap space, failing to land a deal with Johnston before the summer could lead to the 2021 first-rounder garnering offer sheets north of $10MM annually. Depending on the order in which general manager Jim Nill does his business, they simply may not be able to afford to match.

That’s why it’s no surprise the Stars are trying to dial in a realistic number now to avoid it hanging over their heads down the stretch and into the postseason. There’s also the benefit of a solidified cap number for Johnston aiding their long-term planning in case they decide to add a non-rental asset on deadline day, a feasible outcome since they still have nearly $5MM in cap space available, per PuckPedia.

Johnston led the Stars in goals (10) and tied for the team lead in points (16) in their run to the Western Conference Final last season. He’s also yet to miss a game in his three-year NHL career and is on pace for a career-high 75 points.

Predators Sign Joey Willis To Entry-Level Contract

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The Predators announced today they’ve signed forward prospect Joey Willis to a three-year, entry-level contract. Financial terms were not disclosed. His signing rights were set to expire on June 1 if an agreement was not reached.

Nashville selected Willis, 19, in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. He will remain on assignment to the Ontario Hockey League’s Kingston Frontenacs, who acquired him from the Saginaw Spirit in January, through the end of their season. If the dates line up, he would be eligible to make his professional debut for AHL Milwaukee down the stretch once his junior obligations end.

The Illinois-born forward has seen a jump in production in what’s likely to be his final junior season. The center/left-winger has 21-23–44 in 38 appearances split between Saginaw and Kingston this season, his first time breaching the point-per-game mark.

Willis recorded 50 points in 66 regular-season games for the Spirit last year. While the club fell short of the OHL championship, they won the Memorial Cup as the host city with Willis contributing four points (2 G, 2 A) in five games. The 5’11” playmaker also added a pair of assists in two games for the United States at this year’s World Junior championship, adding a gold medal to his résumé.

However, Willis was not ranked among the top 15 prospects in Nashville’s system by Scott Wheeler of The Athletic last month. Other public outlets are higher on Willis’ ceiling, with Dobber Prospects giving him a 65% chance of developing into a full-time NHL player – likely in a third-line scoring role.

He turns 20 later this month, so he’ll be eligible for a full-time assignment to Milwaukee in 2025-26. Since his 20th birthday falls after Jan. 1, 2025, his contract is only eligible for an entry-level slide this year, provided he plays in fewer than 10 NHL games as expected. He’ll likely earn a small signing bonus for the 2024-25 campaign, though, lowering the cap hit of his deal when it goes into effect next season. He will be a restricted free agent upon expiry in 2028.

Senators’ Tyler Kleven Out Week-To-Week With Lower-Body Injury

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Senators defenseman Tyler Kleven will miss extended time with his lower-body injury, head coach Travis Green told reporters Monday (via Claire Hanna of TSN). He’s been labeled week-to-week and will not travel with the team on their two-game road swing through Washington and Chicago.

Kleven, 23, left last Wednesday’s game against the Jets after laying a hit on Winnipeg forward Mason Appleton and subsequently fighting Adam Lowry. He was held out of Saturday’s win over the Sharks as a result.

Drafted 44th overall in 2020, the North Dakota product is in his first season of full-time NHL minutes. He’s been as consistent of a bottom-pairing presence as it gets – last weekend marked Kleven’s first absence of the campaign. The 6’5″ lefty has just 2-2–4 through 58 appearances, though, and his possession metrics leave much to be desired. While described as a defensively-skewed talent, Kleven has seen more offensive zone deployment than defensive at even strength. Despite starting 52.8% of his shifts in the offensive end, the Sens have controlled just 46.8% of shot attempts and 41.7% of expected goals with him on the ice. Those numbers aren’t promising, especially considering Ottawa controls 51.8% of shot attempts without Kleven.

As expected, Kleven has been a factor physically, tying for third on the team with 76 blocks and tying for ninth with 70 hits. Those numbers are certainly a product of his lack of possession time, though, and his cumulative -8.9 expected rating is the worst on the Sens.

Ottawa’s win against San Jose stopped a five-game streak of regulation losses, plunging their playoff chances back below 50%, per MoneyPuck. They’ve gotten healthier up front, seeing core forwards Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, and Joshua Norris all recently return from multi-game absences. Outside of Kleven’s injury and a knee injury to Nick Cousins that’s expected to keep him out through the trade deadline, they’re fully healthy. Adding a forward this week will be the priority for the Senators’ 24th-ranked offense. Still, Kleven’s injury will likely motivate them to target a depth defenseman if their limited salary cap flexibility allows as well.

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