NHL Teams Facing Decreased Daily Cap Expenses In 2021-22
While the general sentiment surrounding the NHL’s return to the Olympics at the 2022 Winter Games is excitement, it isn’t without its downsides. The momentum of the regular season will be halted, participating players will face injury and COVID-19 risks, and non-participating players growing cold over the 19-day break. One additional issue is the extended timeline for the regular season and the impact it has on salary cap expenditures. As noted by cap resource PuckPedia, the length of the 2021-22 regular season is expected to be 200 days whereas the typical season is about 186 days. Those extra 14 or so days decrease the value of daily cap hits, making it more difficult for teams to accrue cap space over the course of the regular season. In yet another flat cap year, this could pose problems for some teams close to the cap ceiling.
While the salary cap and individuals salaries are often viewed in a season-long, overarching fashion, cap maintenance is in fact a series of daily calculations. The cap is tolled each day by the salaries on the active roster as a value of each cap number divided by the total days in the season. As a result, in a longer season each daily cap expense is worth less than in a normal year. Where this comes into play is with cap-driven demotions. Each year there are a number of teams who are close to the cap limit that open up additional space by removing salary from the active roster in the form of reassigning players who are exempt from waivers or have otherwise cleared waivers to the AHL. These can just be off-day paper transactions, extended demotions during homestands, or sometimes waiving and burying larger salaries in the minors. However, during a longer season these maneuvers are less effective as the daily gain from demoting a player will be lower.
Daily salary cap calculations only matter to those teams with salary cap space, so the nine teams currently expected to begin the season using Long-Term Injured Reserve are not as worried about this predicament. Daily tolling also impacts teams with ample cap space far less and there are currently a dozen teams who sit $7MM or more below the cap ceiling with at least nine or ten expected to stay in that range. However, for the Maple Leafs, Flames, Penguins, Flyers, Capitals, Bruins, Panthers, Blues, Avalanche, Kings, Canucks, and Wild, this lesser daily cap expenditure is not irrelevant. A team like Toronto, which is in fact currently over the salary cap limit with a projected roster than includes only one waiver-exempt player in defenseman Rasmus Sandin, will have possibly their only source of additional cap relief diminished. The Pittsburgh Penguins, who currently have just $122K in cap space with a projected roster than contains only the minimum contract of Radim Zohorna as waiver-exempt, are in the same boat.
Fortunately, PuckPedia points out that the same source of cap distress could also provide relief. During the Olympic break, teams with the ability to safely demote players will almost certainly do so. Those 19 days not counting against the cap will help to offset the reduced daily hit over the rest of the season. It could also allow those players to stay fresh with AHL action during that time.
Snapshots: Hertl, Penguins, Forsberg
Tomas Hertl’s comments earlier this month which expressed some uncertainty about his long-term future with the team have thrust him into trade speculation. For the time being, it seems likely he’ll start the season and he and the Sharks will re-assess things from there. However, if San Jose opted to trade him, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic examined (subscription link) what the framework of a potential deal might look like. He suggests that San Jose’s preference likely wouldn’t just be draft picks but that adding a top prospect that’s a little closer to being NHL-ready – one that fits the timeline of their recent top selections – would likely be a goal for GM Doug Wilson. Hertl carries a $5.625MM AAV for this coming season and stands to earn considerably more on his next contract and if they opt to set that high of a price point whenever the decision is made to move on, an extension may need to be part of the trade in order to justify the higher acquisition cost for the other team.
More from around the NHL:
- While the Penguins haven’t had much playoff success as of late, team president Brian Burke told Sportsnet’s Eric Francis that he doesn’t feel the time is right to rebuild yet. Pittsburgh wasn’t able to add much to their roster this summer – Brock McGinn was their biggest acquisition – but he feels the core is still good enough to contend. With both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang set to become unrestricted free agents next summer, that will be the key time for a decision to be made on whether this core can still contend or it’s time to change things up.
- Matt Porter of The Boston Globe posits that the Predators should consider trading winger Filip Forsberg. The 27-year-old is entering the final year of his contract and with Nashville heading into what appears to be some form of a rebuild, extending him would go against that direction and take away some potential assets to add to their future core. Forsberg carries a $6MM AAV without any form of trade protection which would give the Preds some extra flexibility to find him a new home if they decide to go that route at some point during the season.
Rangers Begin Extension Talks With Mika Zibanejad
The Rangers have started discussions on a contract extension with center Mika Zibanejad with a mutual objective of getting an agreement in place, reports Larry Brooks of the New York Post (subscription link). The 28-year-old has played on what has become a very team-friendly deal for New York over the past four seasons and that contract, which carries a $5.35MM AAV, is now in its final year, setting him up to hit unrestricted free agency next summer.
Zibanejad has seen his offensive production increase sharply over the past three seasons. He notched 74 points in 82 games in 2018-19, then managed to beat that total by one in 25 fewer games in 2019-20. While his output dipped last season, he still managed to put up 50 points in 56 contests. While it took him a while to get there, Zibanejad has produced like a legitimate number one center over the past three years.
Accordingly, Brooks pegs his asking price of being upwards of $10MM per season on a long-term pact of either seven or eight years. Interestingly enough, that price tag is what Buffalo’s Jack Eichel costs and New York has been linked to him in trade speculation all summer long and adding his contract would all but eliminate the possibility of being able to afford an extension for Zibanejad.
One comparable that GM Chris Drury will likely want to point to is Philadelphia’s Sean Couturier, who inked an eight-year extension with a $7.75MM AAV earlier this summer. He also recently had a two-year spike in offensive production before settling down a bit last season. Something at or slightly above that price point is where they’d likely want to go.
While the idea of signing Zibanejad to a max-term contract may not necessarily be desirable as he’ll be 37 at the end of such a deal, if the inclusion of that extra season helps bring the cap hit down, it may be worth doing. Right now, cap space isn’t an issue but that will change fairly quickly.
Next summer, they have nearly $53MM in commitments to 14 players, per CapFriendly, but that amount would dwindle quickly with a deal for Zibanejad and defenseman Adam Fox who is undoubtedly heading for a substantial raise of his own. Youngsters Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravtsov will also be restricted free agents of their own while a year later, 2020 top pick Alexis Lafreniere will need a new deal as well. As their cheap entry-level contracts expire, the price tag of this roster will go up quite quickly.
Even with those extensions, there is still room for one pricey middleman. If they eventually wind up with Eichel, it won’t be Zibanejad sticking around barring one of their other high-paid players being moved elsewhere. But if those talks continue to prove unfruitful, a long-term agreement with Zibanejad – who has made it clear that he wants to stay with the Rangers – may very well be the next best thing. Brooks adds that talks have been productive so far so that process at least appears to be off to a decent start.
Oilers Re-Sign Cooper Marody
The Oilers have taken care of one of their remaining restricted free agents, announcing the re-signing of winger Cooper Marody to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal pays the league minimum of $750K at the NHL level, meaning he accepted less than what his qualifying offer was for. 630 CHED’s Bob Stauffer reports (Twitter link) the AHL portion of the contract is worth $150K. Marody was eligible for salary arbitration earlier this summer but opted not to file.
The 24-year-old tied for the team lead in scoring last season with AHL Bakersfield, recording 21 goals and 15 assists in 39 games. Over parts of four seasons, Marody has produced at close to a point per game clip, recording 120 points in 130 contests. Despite that, his NHL opportunities have been limited to just six games with Edmonton back in the 2018-19 season.
Marody will be waiver-eligible for the first time in training camp and that type of production at the minor league level could get him on the radar of teams if he was to be placed on the wire to send back to Bakersfield. Before it comes to that, however, he’ll have a chance to battle for an end-of-roster spot with the Oilers in training camp.
Edmonton GM Ken Holland still has some work to do on the RFA front as winger Kailer Yamamoto remains unsigned with the start of camps less than two weeks away. With limited cap space, the expectation is that he will ultimately have to take a short-term contract in order to keep the cap hit down.
Atlantic Notes: Toronto’s Core, Ryfors, Denisenko
While the Maple Leafs opted to keep their core intact this summer, GM Kyle Dubas acknowledged on a recent edition of the Bob McCown Podcast (audio link) that he did give some consideration to shaking things up but that none of the moves would have made them tangibly better, only different. Instead, he opted to change up some of the depth players instead while bringing in a handful of wingers to battle for Zach Hyman’s spot in the top six while believing that Toronto will be able to get over the playoff hump following another early elimination last season. There will be more decisions to be made next summer when it comes to their core with defenseman Morgan Rielly and goalie Jack Campbell slated to become unrestricted free agents and not a lot of cap flexibility to work with at that time.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic:
- Still with the Maple Leafs, Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun suggests that Toronto may look to bring someone in on a PTO in the coming days. With most of their roster spots spoken for and a need to carry a group that’s below the maximum roster size, there don’t appear to be a lot of spots for someone on a PTO to fill but more depth for training camp battles rarely is a bad thing. The Leafs already have one tryout deal on the books in winger Joshua Ho-Sang but that is most likely for a spot with their AHL squad.
- Tampa Bay’s signing of Simon Ryfors back in May largely went under the radar but Joe Smith of The Athletic notes (subscription link) that a total of five teams offered the undrafted forward an entry-level contract for 2021-22. The 24-year-old ultimately chose to sign with the Lightning and with the departures they had up front this summer, Ryfors could have a chance to break camp with the big club or be one of the first recalls from AHL Syracuse. He had 25 goals and 20 assists in 51 games last season with Rogle of the SHL.
- George Richards of Florida Hockey Now pegs winger Grigori Denisenko as a likely candidate from development camp to make a push for a full-time role with the Panthers this season. The 21-year-old, a 2018 first-rounder, got into seven games with Florida in 2020-21 but wouldn’t be a good fit in a depth role as he’s waiver-exempt and more of an offensive-minded player. But if he can show that he’s ready for a spot on the top three lines, he’d likely leapfrog many of the depth additions that Florida brought in this summer.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
St. Louis Blues
Current Cap Hit: $79,968,849 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Robert Bortuzzo ($1.375MM, UFA)
F Kyle Clifford ($1MM, UFA)
G Ville Husso ($750K, UFA)
F Mackenzie MacEachern ($900K, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($788K, RFA)
F David Perron ($4MM, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($2MM, UFA)
D Jake Walman ($725K, RFA)
Some players just fit on a certain team and that appears to be the case for Perron who has vastly outperformed his contract in this, his third go-around with the organization. He cracked the point per game mark last season for the first time in his career and a repeat performance would set him up for a considerable raise if he opted to test free agency. Given that he has already come back twice though, it’s also understandable to think that he may take a little less to stay where he’s comfortable. Sanford has been a capable depth scorer the last few seasons and after seeing that market bounce back a bit for unrestricted free agents this summer, he should be able to land a small raise. If they have to spend more to retain Perron though, some of that money may come from Sanford’s expiring deal. Clifford had a limited role last season and a similar showing will have him looking at playing for the minimum salary in 2022-23. MacEachern has been a depth piece and will need to establish himself as a regular to have a shot at a nominal raise moving forward; his spot will likely need to go to someone making the minimum beyond this season.
Bortuzzo has had a limited role the last few seasons and while they may want to keep him around in that same role, it’s hard to see him getting more on his next deal as players logging the minutes he does often sign for the minimum or close to it. Mikkola will have a chance to push for a regular spot on the third pairing but as he hasn’t produced much even in the minors, a minor pay bump is likelier than a big jump. Walman will be battling Mikkola for that spot and while he has produced more in the minors, again, only a small raise is probable unless one of them really takes a big step and locks down a spot in the top four.
Husso’s first NHL opportunity didn’t go as well as he or the Blues had hoped for but with their cap situation, they couldn’t really afford to bring in a more proven backup. That’s the case again for 2021-22 where he’ll get a chance to prove himself as a viable NHL second option. If it doesn’t happen, he may be back to looking for two-way deals. Either way, St. Louis will need to stay with a low-priced backup to make their salary structure work.
Two Years Remaining
F Ivan Barbashev ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Oskar Sundqvist ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)
When Buffalo signed O’Reilly to this contract just one year after acquiring him from Colorado back in 2016, the price tag seemed steep. The hope was that he’d become a top-line center but it took getting traded again for him to truly get to that level. With St. Louis, O’Reilly has upped his production while continuing his strong defensive play, earning a Selke Trophy and finishing in the top five in voting the other two seasons. He has made a case for a small raise – he doesn’t put up elite offensive numbers to get him into that $10MM or more tier – but he’ll be 32 when his next contract starts, taking away the potential for a max-term pact.
On the other end of the scale is Tarasenko. You all know the story by now, multiple shoulder surgeries, decreased offensive production, and a mutual desire for a change of scenery though one has yet to materialize. He’ll need to bounce back in a big way to have a shot at a contract anywhere near this two years from now. Kyrou’s first full NHL season was a strong one but with his limited track record and their cap situation, a bridge deal was the only way to go. He’ll at least get a small raise with a $3.2MM qualifying offer but it also wouldn’t be shocking to see him double his current AAV on a long-term pact. Sundqvist, when healthy, has become a capable third liner and as a center, he plays a premium position but he will need to improve his production if he wants more than a nominal raise two years from now. The same can be said for Barbashev who, while he has been used more as a winger, can also play down the middle which will help his value on the open market.
Three Years Remaining
D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)
Scandella made an immediate impact after being acquired from Montreal in 2020, earning this extension soon after. He doesn’t produce much but is a capable shutdown defender that can play on the second pairing. It’s not a value contract but it’s not an overpayment either.
Metropolitan Notes: Blue Jackets, Lee, Rangers
For years, the Blue Jackets have been searching for help down the middle with those moves largely not panning out. Now, with the team entrenched in a rebuild, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that they may back off of that approach now. With the selections of Kent Johnson and Cole Sillinger at the draft, the hope now is those two will represent their future at center, lessening the need to try to trade for a significant replacement. Portzline also notes that GM Jarmo Kekalainen has spoken about the ability to take on a bad contract to add other pieces for a rebuild. While such a move hasn’t happened yet, that could change depending on what happens in training camp as more players re-sign and injuries start to strike, potentially creating the need for some teams to move out money quickly.
More from the Metropolitan Division:
- Islanders forward Anders Lee believes that he has fully recovered from his torn ACL from late last season but he has not yet received full medical clearance, relays Newsday’s Andrew Gross. The captain was limited to just 27 games in 2020-21 due to the injury sustained in mid-March but he still managed to notch 19 points along the way. He could line up alongside Kyle Palmieri this coming season; Palmieri was initially acquired using the space created by Lee’s LTIR placement but re-signed earlier this summer.
- With the Rangers having extra depth on the left wing, GM Chris Drury acknowledged to reporters, including Newsday’s Colin Stephenson, that the team is considering shifting one of Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, or Alexis Lafreniere to the off-wing to ensure all of them play in the top six this coming season. If it happens to be Lafreniere that shifts over to give him a more prominent role, it’s possible that New York’s top three right wingers are him, Kaapo Kakko, and Vitali Kravtsov, all recent first-rounders. The last two will be restricted free agents next summer and will be hoping for bigger roles themselves in order to boost their negotiating leverage.
Snapshots: Leafs Camp, Bruins Camp, Blues
Still somewhat in the dead of the offseason, development camps are starting up for the majority of teams across the league. The pace of news is sure to increase in the coming days as these camps get underway, especially with training camps just around the corner as well. For now, the focus turns to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who had a variety of absences today from their camp. Defenders Joseph Duszak and Riley McCourt were both absent with injuries, The Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby reports. Duszak, who’s on an NHL contract and has impressed in back-to-back seasons with the Toronto Marlies, was absent with a foot injury. This development camp and ensuing training camp will be important for him, giving Duszak a chance to show that he can be a legitimate call-up option for the team in case of injury. McCourt is on an AHL contract and is entering his second season of professional hockey after tallying one assist in eight games with the Marlies last year. Hornby also mentions the omission of Colby Saganiuk from camp, as he was held out as a precaution due to illness. Saganiuk is attending the camp on an invite basis, as the 18-year-old will be returning to the OHL’s Erie Otters next year.
Elsewhere across the NHL:
- The Boston Bruins’ development camp roster was released, and via The Boston Globe’s Matt Porter, it includes 2021 first-round draft choice Fabian Lysell. After signing his entry-level contract earlier this offseason, Lysell will get his first North American action with the Bruins’ development camp. While it’s an extreme longshot for him to make the team after just three points in 26 SHL games last season, he’ll get experience playing with other potential future Bruins roster players such as Oskar Steen, Jack Ahcan, and others.
- Just days after the home Minnesota Wild released theirs, the St. Louis Blues dropped their Winter Classic uniforms on Friday night. Featuring a vintage, off-white look reminiscent of the team’s inaugural jersey set, the team opted for a much more simplistic look than their opponent. The jerseys will obviously be worn on New Year’s Day at Minneapolis’ Target Field, but could be worn throughout the season as alternates as other teams have opted to in the past.
Minor Transactions: 09/10/21
A few more signings occurred today in the NHL as camp is now just two weeks away, but there’s also been some movement in the minor and European leagues. As always, we’ll keep track of all the notable minor moves right here.
- Josh Dickinson, who became an unrestricted free agent this summer when the Chicago Blackhawks decided not to issue him a qualifying offer, has signed with the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL for the upcoming season. The younger brother of Vancouver Canucks forward Jason Dickinson, Josh went undrafted and has played just 47 games at the AHL level to this point. The entry-level deal he signed with the Colorado Avalanche in 2018 is now expired and it seems unlikely he’ll get another NHL deal unless he takes a significant step forward in his development.
- The Walleye announced another signing later in the day, acquiring former Dallas Stars draft pick Chris Martenet. Martenet, now 24, was largely drafted in the fourth round in 2015 because of his massive frame. Standing at 6′ 7″ and 216 pounds, his physical brand of hockey has kept him in the game. He’s played in just a handful of AHL games in his career, playing all but two games over the last four seasons in the ECHL. An NHL contract in his future seems unlikely now, but he’ll try and put himself back on the map this year in Toledo.
- Josh Jooris is staying in Switzerland, but won’t be playing for Lausanne HC anymore. The former NHL forward has been transferred to Geneve-Servette HC for the rest of the season, after which his contract will expire. Now 31, it’s been several years since Jooris suited up in the NHL, last making an appearance for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2018. In 213 career NHL games, he posted 55 points.
This page will be updated with any further transactions
Coaching Notes: Koivu, Penguins, Wickenheiser
The Minnesota Wild will have former captain and franchise icon Mikko Koivu at training camp this season, but not as a player. Michael Russo of The Athletic tweets that the expectation is that Koivu will have an official position with the organization eventually, though none has been announced yet.
Koivu, 38, retired earlier this year, leaving the Columbus Blue Jackets after playing just seven games. That time in Columbus is perhaps an unfortunate footnote on a career that up until then was spent entirely in Minnesota, spanning 15 years and more than 1,000 games with the organization.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have hired a pair of goaltending development coaches, bringing in Kain Tisi and Charles Grant. The two will work with goaltending prospects throughout the Penguins organization, in Europe, the minor leagues, juniors and college hockey, as well as scout draft-eligible and college free agent goalies. Tisi previously worked with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL, while Grant is coming over from the Cape Breton Eagles of the QMJHL.
- Toronto Maple Leafs development camp has a bit of a different feel this season and that’s in part due to the leadership. Hayley Wickenheiser was promoted to senior director of player development earlier this year and she’s running the camp, telling TSN’s Kristen Shilton the group has decided to “create a competitive environment versus a teaching environment.” A member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, it’s actually Dr. Hayley Wickenheiser now; she’s also currently doing an emergency room rotation at a Toronto hospital.