2009 NHL Draft Take Two: Second Overall Pick
Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.
We’re looking back at the 2009 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?
Earlier in the week, we kicked off the 2009 Take Two series by polling PHR readers on their pick for first overall with the benefit of hindsight. Defenseman Victor Hedman jumped up to claim the number-one spot by a comparatively slim margin, capturing 53% of the vote. In past years, the choice has been rather clear, with PHR voters settling on the draft class’ best player by scores of 70% or more.
Now with Hedman off the board to the New York Islanders at first overall, John Tavares remains on the board, with the Tampa Bay Lightning picking at number two. At the time of the draft, there was no question about whether Tavares would fall. He was one of the few players granted exceptional status into the OHL as a 15-year-old and, given he was only five days away from being eligible for the 2008 draft, Tavares already had four full seasons of junior hockey under his belt with two 100-plus point seasons to show for it.
While the circumstances of Tavares’ departure in free agency from the Islanders for the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018 have soured the fanbase’s opinion on his time with the team, he’s inarguably one of the most talented players in team history and was the cornerstone behind their first-round playoff win in 2016, ending a decades-long streak without a series victory. The team’s captain for five seasons ended up with 621 points in 669 games as an Islander and ranks fifth in team history in Hockey Reference’s point shares system.
Among his 2009 peers, he currently sits as the all-time leader in goals, assists and points and is the only one with more than 1,000 career NHL games under his belt. Despite that, Tavares hasn’t taken home any major awards like Hedman – although Tavares was a Hart Trophy finalist in 2013 and 2015 at just 22 and 24 years old. If he had fallen to Tampa for whatever reason, may they have won more Stanley Cups with this core with Tavares in the fold along with Steven Stamkos?
That’s what we’re asking you today, PHR readers. Will Tavares fall yet another spot in your hindsight-influenced 2009 draft ranking, or will the Lightning select a second franchise center to complement Stamkos, who they selected first overall just one year prior? Vote in the poll below:
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Carolina Hurricanes Sign Caleb Jones
5:44 pm: The Hurricanes have made the deal official via team release. General manager Don Waddell said Jones’ “NHL experience will help boost our depth on defense.”
3:39 pm: Luke Fox of Sportsnet is reporting that the Carolina Hurricanes and defenseman Caleb Jones are in agreement on a contract for the 2023-24 NHL season. Shortly after that, PuckPedia says that the deal will be a one-year, $775K contract.
Right off the bat, it is fair to start wondering exactly how much depth the Hurricanes need on their blue line. Already carrying eight NHL-ready defensemen on their active roster, Jones joins the list as a defenseman that should receive minutes next season.
Playing on a below-average Chicago Blackhawks team last season, Jones averaged just over 19 minutes of ice time per night, sitting fourth among defensemen in that category. Only scoring 16 points in 73 games, Jones was much more respected for his play on the defensive side of the puck rather than any offensive contributions.
Much unlike his last four seasons in the NHL prior to last year, Jones also racked up 118 blocked shots and threw 116 hits, by far the most he’s ever achieved in either category up to this point. In Chicago, Jones also spent time on both the powerplay and penalty kill units, not something that should be expected of him in Carolina.
Even though Jones is a serviceable defensive option for most teams around the NHL, he is going to need to compete heavily in the Hurricanes training camp to be an everyday player. Unlike Chicago, Carolina is considered to be one of the heavy favorites to win the Stanley Cup next season.
Snapshots: Kylington, QMJHL Fighting Ban, Kisio
Calgary Flames defenseman Oliver Kylington didn’t suit up at all in 2022-23, instead staying in his home country of Sweden on personal leave. Today, Kylington opened up about his year-long absence to Swedish outlet HockeyNews.se, saying (translated) that “These are things that have been going on in the family for many years but which escalated to become worse, and there were mental and psychological problems I suffered from.” A seemingly refreshed Kylington said at the end of the interview that he’s now feeling “absolutely fantastic” and is looking forward to re-join Calgary next season, as general manager Craig Conroy confirmed last month.
The 2015 second-round pick had a lengthy development track, but the 26-year-old Swede fully arrived on the scene in 2021-22. Stepping closer to a top-four role, Kylington recorded career-highs across the board with nine goals, 22 assists, 31 points, and a +34 rating in 73 games. With the addition of MacKenzie Weegar into the picture in Calgary, however, Kylington might start out next season in a bottom-pairing role under new head coach Ryan Huska. That’s assuming Noah Hanifin starts the season with the team, which is far from a given as he remains a trade candidate.
Other notes from around the hockey world this afternoon:
- The QMJHL confirmed today that fighting will be banned entirely in the league beginning with the 2023-24 campaign, following up on pressure from the Quebec parliament earlier this year to enforce such a rule. After adding a ten-minute misconduct for fighting to the standard five-minute major penalty a few seasons back, a fight in the QMJHL will now automatically result in ejection from the game for both players, more closely resembling the NCAA. A ladder system of suspensions is also being introduced to supplement the automatic ejections. Per the league, an “instigator” will be issued an automatic one-game suspension, an “aggressor” will receive an automatic two-game suspension (with the potential for more), and an additional automatic one-game suspension will be imposed for players who fight multiple times in the same season. The NHL has not commented on the rule nor given any indication they intend to follow in the footsteps of one of their largest junior-league feeders anytime soon.
- The Vegas Golden Knights’ AHL affiliate in Henderson has added Brent Kisio to their staff as an assistant coach, per a team release. Kisio, the son of Golden Knights pro scout Kelly Kisio, had spent the past eight seasons as the head coach of the WHL’s Lethbridge Hurricanes. He also served as an assistant coach for Team Canada at last year’s 2023 IIHF World Junior Championship, where his squad took home the gold medal. Henderson will be under new leadership next year, with Ryan Craig replacing the outgoing Manny Viveiros as head coach.
Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Martin Jones
Aug 10: CapFriendly confirmed the financial details of Jones’ contract. The veteran netminder will earn the league-minimum $775K base salary with the remaining $100K paid out via a signing bonus.
Aug 9: The Toronto Maple Leafs and veteran netminder Martin Jones have agreed to a one-year, $875K contract, per a team release. He’s now expected to provide insurance and compete for the backup job in Toronto.
Jones, 33, brings a capable veteran element to Toronto’s crease depth, although it’s not out of the question that he’s assigned to the minors for the first time in a decade. He spent the 2022-23 season with the Seattle Kraken, posting a 27-13-3 record and three shutouts but a rather poor .886 save percentage in 48 games.
It was the most action Jones had seen in a season since his starting days with the San Jose Sharks in the mid-2010s, but it was mostly due to Philipp Grubauer‘s injury-related absences rather than performance. Across ten seasons and 444 NHL contests with the Kraken, Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, and Philadelphia Flyers, Jones’ career numbers still read a .905 save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average despite his struggles in recent years.
Considering he hasn’t been an above-average netminder in six years, Jones likely slots in third on Toronto’s goalie depth chart behind starter Ilya Samsonov and intriguing prospect Joseph Woll. After the latter had a strong showing down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs when Samsonov went down with an injury, he’s the likely candidate to win a backup job.
While Jones did receive a one-way deal, that’s not likely an indication that Toronto envisions having him on the NHL roster all season. It’s clear the Leafs were looking to add at that position – their AHL goalie depth is unimpressive with Woll graduating to the pros. Earlier this summer, they were linked to another veteran, former Tampa Bay Lightning backup Brian Elliott, but he remains unsigned.
It’s worth noting Jones will require waivers to head to the AHL, and there’s no guarantee he’ll clear after the workload he took on last season and his affordable contract.
Minor League Notes: Branch, Bjork, Stromwall
Per an official statement from the Commissioner, David Branch will be stepping down as Commissioner of the Ontario Hockey League at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season. It will be the 45th and last year that Branch has served in that role, initially starting his term in 1979.
Branch has seen the league grow from 12 to 20 teams during his time serving as Commissioner and has seen such players ranging from Steve Yzerman and Eric Lindros to John Tavares and Connor McDavid graduate to the NHL level. However, per his letter to the public, it appeared as if Branch was more concerned with achievements off the ice, rather than on the ice, stating, “Countless players have gone on to become doctors, lawyers, teachers, emergency service workers, skilled tradespeople or other professionals that make tremendous contributions in our society, including participating in minor hockey as volunteer coaches and officials”.
His commitment to the game of hockey at the minor league level, as well as an appreciation for the personhood of the entirety of the league, will have a lasting impact on the OHL and junior hockey for the foreseeable future. The OHL Board of Governors thanked Branch for his time serving as Commissioner and organized Commissioner Search Committee to replace Branch.
Other notes:
- Even after an impressive end to the 2022-23 regular season with the Chicago Blackhawks, forward Anders Bjork has settled on a one-year AHL contract with the Rockford IceHogs according to Charlie Roumeliotis of NBC Sports Chicago. Bjork is no stranger to AHL hockey, as he spent most of last season playing for the Buffalo Sabres AHL affiliate, the Rochester Americans. Nevertheless, it is surprising to see Bjork not land at least a two-way NHL contract after scoring eight points in 13 games for the Blackhawks year.
- According to a team release, forward Malte Stromwall has agreed to a contract with Frolunda HC of the SHL. Last season, Stromwall played for the AHL affiliate of the Carolina Hurricanes, the Chicago Wolves, and had a solid season. Playing in 68 games, Stromwall scored 18 goals and 33 assists, leading the team in scoring. Now returning back to his native Sweden, Stromwall will look to grow his value overseas.
Previewing The Top 2024 Restricted Free Agent Class
Similarly to the exciting talent that is currently projected to hit the open market next summer, the restricted free-agent market carries some big names as well. This summer alone, even with a relatively flat salary cap increase, we have seen the likes of Cole Caufield, Jesper Bratt, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Timo Meier, and Troy Terry all sign extensions for seven-plus years, all with AAV’s of $7MM or more.
Next offseason, the NHL salary cap is reportedly projected to increase by $4MM or more, paving the way for more young players to get locked up by their current clubs. Although arbitration rights give the player a bit more control of their financial future, it has not prohibited younger players from securing long-term high-salary deals. We will take a look at some of the best restricted free agents available, whether or not they have arbitration rights and some incredibly early theories on their next contract.
F Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks) – The unquestionable future of the Canucks, Pettersson has set himself up for a record contract extension. Only a week ago, Pettersson’s agent, J.P. France, believes that extension talks won’t begin with Vancouver until the end of the season. This year, Pettersson will be entering the final year of a three-year, $22.05MM contract signed with Vancouver shortly before the start of the 2021-22 regular season, and will surely get a healthy raise from his current $7.35MM AAV. Garnering the best individual output of his five-year career,
Pettersson scored 39 goals and 63 assists last year, good for 10th in the league, also earning Hart Memorial Trophy votes as well. If the Canucks are serious about committing to Pettersson as their franchise player, and with only $48.6MM currently on their books for the 2024-25 NHL season, Pettersson will get one of the largest contracts in NHL history with his next deal.
Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Eight years, $92MM ($11.5MM AAV)
F Matthew Beniers (Seattle Kraken) – The first-ever selection made by the Kraken back in the 2021 NHL Draft, Beniers has quickly become the top center in Seattle. Jumping from the NCAA to a full NHL season, Beniers did appear to slow down a bit towards the end of the season but still had an impressive year nonetheless, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy. In 80 games played, Beniers scored 24 goals and 33 assists, also chipping in seven points in 14 playoff games. If there is any knock on Beniers from last season, his faceoff percentage left a lot to be desired, but with only 36.7% of his draws taken in the defensive zone, the Kraken are not utilizing Beniers in a manner that faceoff percentages will be a major drawback long-term. A group of misfits similar to the original group of the Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle could make a strong statement committing to Beniers long-term as the face of their franchise.
Arbitration Rights: No
Projected Contract: Eight years, $74MM ($9.25MM AAV)
D Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo Sabres) – A consistently solid offensive weapon from the blue line for the Sabres since his first year in the league back in 2018-19, Dahlin has shored up his defensive metrics to an impressive degree as well. Last year, topically speaking, Dahlin set career highs in goals, assists, plus/minus, blocks, hits, and takeaways. Looking at even deeper stats, his 56.4% CF% was higher than his career average, and his PDO in All Situations was also a career-high at 101.4. Buffalo has already locked up his defensive partner, Mattias Samuelsson, to a long-term contract, and for the most part, Buffalo has done a fantastic job over the past several years getting their younger players locked up to very affordable long-term deals and the same should be expected for Dahlin.
Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Six years, $55.5MM ($9.25 MM AAV)
D Moritz Seider (Detroit Red Wings) – The former-sixth overall pick of the 2019 NHL Draft, Seider was the first surprise off the board, going 15-17 picks ahead of predicted. The Red Wings’ confidence in their selection paid off, as Seider took off for 50 points in his first season, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy as the top rookie in the NHL. Last year, Seider appeared to be experiencing a ‘sophomore slump’ in the first half but still finished with a respectable 43 points, as well as increasing total blocked shots and hits. Taking into account his size, skating ability, and vision on the ice, Seider is surely becoming a franchise defenseman for Detroit, if he hasn’t cemented himself in that role already. An extension shouldn’t be on anybody’s radar until next summer given the operating record of General Manager Steve Yzerman, but with an ample amount of cap space, expect the Red Wings to continue to invest heavily in their future.
Arbitration Rights: No
Projected Contract: Eight years, $67.2MM ($8.4MM AAV)
F Martin Necas (Carolina Hurricanes) – A potential trade candidate only one summer ago, Necas quieted all doubters this year, scoring 28 goals and 43 assists in 82 games, leading the Hurricanes in scoring. In a team lacking in total scoring, Necas has become a player that Carolina must hold on to if they wish to remain a regular Stanley Cup contender. At the end of last month, the Hurricanes committed to his teammate, Sebastian Aho, to an eight-year, $78MM contract, becoming the highest-paid player in franchise history. Given the team’s hierarchy, it is doubtful the team would be willing to pay a player more than Aho, but Necas should check in close to that number when all is said and done.
Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Eight years, $66MM ($8.25MM AAV)
Snapshots: Marchessault, Ellis, Kerfoot
During the Vegas Golden Knights run to their first Stanley Cup championship in franchise history, forward Jonathan Marchessault played a vital role in that effort. Finishing as the Conn Smythe Trophy winner of the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs, Marchessault has cemented himself as a fan and locker room favorite in Vegas. With one year remaining on his current contract with the club, Marchessault should be one of the more important extension candidates for the team.
In an interview with TVA Sports, Marchessault spoke on extension talks, and also his relationship with head coach Bruce Cassidy. In his article on this relationship, Chris Gawlik of VegasHockeyNow reports a quote from Marchessault saying, “It hasn’t always been the rainbow and the good weather between us. We got into each other a couple of times, on the bench, during games, during the playoffs. But I think he wanted the best out of me and we managed to be able to work together“. Although interesting, it is hardly a surprising take from Marchessault, as Cassidy was regularly noted as an incredibly difficult coach to play for during his time with the Boston Bruins.
On the extension front, it does not sound like anything is close between the two parties. Marchessault said, “There are no negotiations that have been done. I know that sometimes the Golden Knights like to take their time with that. We will see what it will give“. Over the years, the Knights have been known to move some of their veteran original members, such as Reilly Smith and Marc-Andre Fleury, and if an extension cannot be agreed upon at a reasonable price for both player and team, Vegas may need to make another difficult decision with Marchessault this upcoming season.
Other snapshots:
- Speaking with the new President of Hockey Operations for the Philadelphia Flyers, Keith Jones, Adam Kimelman of the NHL reports that Jones firmly believes that the playing days of defenseman Ryan Ellis are over. Due to a back injury, Ellis has only been able to suit up in four games for the Flyers during the 2021-22 season and missed the entirety of last year. Ellis still has four years and $25MM remaining on his current contract and will spend the rest of that time on LTIR if his contract is not moved off the team before then.
- One of the several signings made by the Arizona Coyotes this offseason, Alexander Kerfoot is more than excited to get started with his new club. Speaking with Patrick Brown of the NHL, Kerfoot shed some light on his choosing Arizona over other offers saying, “It just feels like they’re in a different spot now. It feels like they’re trying to take the next step. Being part of that change and helping grow the culture is fun to be a part of. Things are trending really well for this group, and I’m happy to be part of it“. It is hard to envision the Coyotes returning to the playoffs anytime within the next two years, but they have set themselves up nicely by developing their core players and bringing in solid auxiliary pieces.
Snapshots: Swayman, Lindholm, Couture, Pisani
Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman met the media yesterday (video link) to discuss his new one-year, $3.475MM deal that came from an arbitrator. He indicated that while he’s grateful for having gone through the process, he has no desire to do so in the future. Swayman is coming off a breakout campaign that saw him post a 2.27 GAA with a .920 SV% and four shutouts in 37 games last season, helping to form the best tandem in the NHL. It’s quite possible that he could go through this process again, however, as he has two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining; he isn’t able to hit unrestricted free agency until 2026.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- Earlier this offseason, it appeared as if Flames center Elias Lindholm wasn’t willing to sign a contract extension. That doesn’t appear to be the case anymore as David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reported in a recent appearance on the NHL Network (video link) that the two sides appear to be well into discussions on an eight-year extension. The 28-year-old has been one of the more impressive two-way middlemen over the last few years, making his $4.85MM AAV a nice bargain. However, to get him to put pen on a new deal, that price tag could push closer to the $9MM range.
- Don’t expect Sharks center Logan Couture to be following Erik Karlsson out of San Jose. The veteran told NHL.com’s Jon Lane that he wants to help turn things around with the only NHL franchise he has ever suited up for. Couture is coming off a solid season, picking up 27 goals and 40 assists in 82 games to lead all Sharks forwards in scoring. The 34-year-old has four years left on his contract with an AAV of $8MM.
- The Canadiens have hired former NHL winger Fernando Pisani as an amateur scout, per their Hockey Operations page. He spent eight seasons playing at the top level, getting into 462 games between Edmonton and Chicago. Since then, Pisani has spent the last nine seasons working as either an assistant coach or a development coach primarily at the CIS and WHL levels. This will be his first foray into scouting.
Evgeny Svechnikov Signs In KHL
August 11th: The KHL and Ak Bars Kazan have confirmed the signing of Svechnikov to a two-year deal this morning.
August 9th: Over the last couple of offseasons, it has taken free agent winger Evgeny Svechnikov a while to find a contract. Considering he hasn’t signed within the first five-plus weeks of NHL free agency, it appeared as if things were heading in that direction again. Instead, it appears he has chosen a different path as a report from Shaiba in Kazakhstan suggests that Svechnikov is expected to sign with Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL.
Last season, the 26-year-old played in 59 games with San Jose, recording eight goals and six assists while logging just 10:45 per game. It continued a trend from the year before in Winnipeg where he produced at a similar rate (19 points in 72 games) while again logging 10:45 per contest. Those performances were a step up from his time with Detroit, however, as he spent the bulk of his four years in the minors.
Svechnikov would have been a candidate for a PTO agreement that could have been converted into what likely would have been a two-way deal. Instead, the 2015 15th-overall pick will try a different path, one that will allow him to play closer to home and likely will give him an opportunity to have a more significant role offensively. If that does happen, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Svechnikov could get himself back on the NHL radar with a good showing next season.
Minor Transactions: 08/09/23
There were a few small moves around the NHL today and that was also the case around the hockey world. Here’s a rundown of some of the latest minor transactions.
- Boston’s farm team in Providence announced the signing of forward Jimmy Lambert to a one-year deal. The 26-year-old wrapped his college career at Michigan in 2021-22 and spent last season on an AHL deal with the Islanders’ affiliate. Lambert had seven points in 33 games with AHL Bridgeport but was much more productive with Worcester of the ECHL, collecting 24 points in just 27 contests.
- Seattle’s AHL affiliate in Coachella Valley announced that they’ve re-signed defenseman Jake McLaughlin to a one-year contract. The 27-year-old spent the bulk of last season in the ECHL, notching 19 points in 32 games with Kansas City but did get into two games with the Firebirds. McLaughlin has seen AHL action in each of his four professional seasons after going undrafted out of UMass.
- Former NHL center Eric O’Dell is extending his stay overseas as he inked a one-year extension with Dynamo Moskva, per a team release. The 33-year-old has 41 career NHL appearances under his belt with Winnipeg along with six seasons of AHL experience, spanning nearly 250 games. However, O’Dell has been in the KHL since 2016-17 and has been fairly productive, notching 178 points in 295 games. Last season, the middleman had 16 goals and 15 assists in 33 appearances.