Previewing The Top 2024 Restricted Free Agent Class

Similarly to the exciting talent that is currently projected to hit the open market next summer, the restricted free-agent market carries some big names as well. This summer alone, even with a relatively flat salary cap increase, we have seen the likes of Cole Caufield, Jesper Bratt, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Timo Meier, and Troy Terry all sign extensions for seven-plus years, all with AAV’s of $7MM or more.

Next offseason, the NHL salary cap is reportedly projected to increase by $4MM or more, paving the way for more young players to get locked up by their current clubs. Although arbitration rights give the player a bit more control of their financial future, it has not prohibited younger players from securing long-term high-salary deals. We will take a look at some of the best restricted free agents available, whether or not they have arbitration rights and some incredibly early theories on their next contract.

F Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks) – The unquestionable future of the Canucks, Pettersson has set himself up for a record contract extension. Only a week ago, Pettersson’s agent, J.P. France, believes that extension talks won’t begin with Vancouver until the end of the season. This year, Pettersson will be entering the final year of a three-year, $22.05MM contract signed with Vancouver shortly before the start of the 2021-22 regular season, and will surely get a healthy raise from his current $7.35MM AAV. Garnering the best individual output of his five-year career, Pettersson scored 39 goals and 63 assists last year, good for 10th in the league, also earning Hart Memorial Trophy votes as well. If the Canucks are serious about committing to Pettersson as their franchise player, and with only $48.6MM currently on their books for the 2024-25 NHL season, Pettersson will get one of the largest contracts in NHL history with his next deal.

Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Eight years, $92MM ($11.5MM AAV)

F Matthew Beniers (Seattle Kraken) – The first-ever selection made by the Kraken back in the 2021 NHL Draft, Beniers has quickly become the top center in Seattle. Jumping from the NCAA to a full NHL season, Beniers did appear to slow down a bit towards the end of the season but still had an impressive year nonetheless, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy. In 80 games played, Beniers scored 24 goals and 33 assists, also chipping in seven points in 14 playoff games. If there is any knock on Beniers from last season, his faceoff percentage left a lot to be desired, but with only 36.7% of his draws taken in the defensive zone, the Kraken are not utilizing Beniers in a manner that faceoff percentages will be a major drawback long-term. A group of misfits similar to the original group of the Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle could make a strong statement committing to Beniers long-term as the face of their franchise.

Arbitration Rights: No
Projected Contract: Eight years, $74MM ($9.25MM AAV)

D Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo Sabres) – A consistently solid offensive weapon from the blue line for the Sabres since his first year in the league back in 2018-19, Dahlin has shored up his defensive metrics to an impressive degree as well. Last year, topically speaking, Dahlin set career highs in goals, assists, plus/minus, blocks, hits, and takeaways. Looking at even deeper stats, his 56.4% CF% was higher than his career average, and his PDO in All Situations was also a career-high at 101.4. Buffalo has already locked up his defensive partner, Mattias Samuelsson, to a long-term contract, and for the most part, Buffalo has done a fantastic job over the past several years getting their younger players locked up to very affordable long-term deals and the same should be expected for Dahlin.

Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Six years, $55.5MM ($9.25 MM AAV)

D Moritz Seider (Detroit Red Wings) – The former-sixth overall pick of the 2019 NHL Draft, Seider was the first surprise off the board, going 15-17 picks ahead of predicted. The Red Wings’ confidence in their selection paid off, as Seider took off for 50 points in his first season, winning the Calder Memorial Trophy as the top rookie in the NHL. Last year, Seider appeared to be experiencing a ’sophomore slump’ in the first half but still finished with a respectable 43 points, as well as increasing total blocked shots and hits. Taking into account his size, skating ability, and vision on the ice, Seider is surely becoming a franchise defenseman for Detroit, if he hasn’t cemented himself in that role already. An extension shouldn’t be on anybody’s radar until next summer given the operating record of General Manager Steve Yzerman, but with an ample amount of cap space, expect the Red Wings to continue to invest heavily in their future.

Arbitration Rights: No
Projected Contract: Eight years, $67.2MM ($8.4MM AAV)

F Martin Necas (Carolina Hurricanes) – A potential trade candidate only one summer ago, Necas quieted all doubters this year, scoring 28 goals and 43 assists in 82 games, leading the Hurricanes in scoring. In a team lacking in total scoring, Necas has become a player that Carolina must hold on to if they wish to remain a regular Stanley Cup contender. At the end of last month, the Hurricanes committed to his teammate, Sebastian Aho, to an eight-year, $78MM contract, becoming the highest-paid player in franchise history. Given the team’s hierarchy, it is doubtful the team would be willing to pay a player more than Aho, but Necas should check in close to that number when all is said and done.

Arbitration Rights: Yes
Projected Contract: Eight years, $66MM ($8.25MM AAV)