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Draft Notes: Ottawa, Buffalo, New Jersey, Backup Plan

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Last night’s NHL Draft Lottery did little for most of the seven teams that did not qualify for the postseason. A to-be-determined playoff team won the No. 1 pick, the Los Angeles Kings were the lone true beneficiary among the seven, moving up to No. 2, and the Ottawa Senators hold the No. 3 pick. This may seem like a win for Ottawa, but the team actually held the second and third picks prior to the lottery, giving them the best odds to win the first overall pick and a chance at having two top-three picks. Instead, they ended up with No. 3 and No. 5. The Senators will be just the fifth team in NHL history to hold two top-five picks, but it is still seen as a poor result by many fans. However, for those wondering if the team would react to their lottery results by moving one of their two picks, that is not in the plans. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch relays from Sens GM Pierre Dorion that he may listen to offers for the selections but is “99.9% sure” that he will keep the picks. Ottawa may not be able to land prize prospect Alexis Lafreniere, nor can they select both Quinton Byfield and Tim Stutzle, the two forwards competing to go No. 2, but they are guaranteed one of those two and will still land another elite player in a deep draft class.

  • The Buffalo Sabres had the least lottery odds of the seven non-playoff teams and ended up sliding from No. 7 to No. 8 with a playoff team winning the first overall pick. In a deep draft class, the Sabres will still get a great player with the eighth pick and The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski details their potential options. The one that sticks out most is OHL star center Marco Rossi, who has an interesting tie to the team. While Buffalo recently moved on from a large number of their hockey operations staff and their minor league coaches, among others, head coach Ralph Kreuger is still at the helm and will likely have a say in draft decisions given that the hockey operations staff will largely be made up of new names by the time draft day occurs. If Kreuger does get to weigh in, Rossi could be his preferred target if available. Kreuger coached the Swiss national team for more than a decade until 2010, but Lysowski notes that he still maintains contact with the programs from which Rossi came. Additionally, Kreuger coached Rossi’s father, Michael Rossi, in Austria in the early 90’s. The slick, play-making forward may not make it to Buffalo at No. 8, but if he does he would very likely be the pick.
  • The New Jersey Devils landed pick No. 7 last night, but also own the first-round picks of the Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks. Conditions limit either of those picks from belonging to New Jersey if they were to become No. 1 overall, so they will both be later on in the first round. As a result, they could become expendable if the right deal was on the table. Interim GM Tom Fitzgerald stated on a conference call following the lottery that he would consider trading one of the picks if the opportunity arose. New Jersey is already considered a wild card in this draft given their depth in talented forwards and a draft class defined by depth in this area, so the team might be targeting top defenseman Jamie Drysdale or top goalie Yaroslav Askarov at No. 7 and then one first-round forward might be enough if they can improve the NHL roster by moving the other pick.
  • What happens to the Phase 2 Draft Lottery if the league does not resume play? TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that it would be the same as if all of the lower seeds in the knockout round were to lose. The even-odds (12.5% apiece) lottery would still place among the teams that finished 8-15 in inverse points percentage this season: Montreal, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota, Winnipeg, New York Rangers, Florida, and Columbus.

Snapshots: Hub Announcement Not Coming Today, Draft Lottery, Blackhawks

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NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly put the kibosh on any expectation that the final announcement about the postseason’s hub locations would be revealed today, per TSN’s Pierre LeBrun. There was hope bordering on expectation that the chosen cities would be announced today, but there’s evidently much still to consider. In the meantime, let’s see what else is going on around the NHL…

  • Tonight’s draft lottery will decide who gets the top three picks in next year’s draft – assuming the winners of those picks fall in the bottom seven by record, writes The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe. Otherwise, we might be facing a second lottery once the play-in round decides the other eight teams of the lottery field. The Detroit Red Wings have the night’s best odds, but the top pick has only gone to the team with the best odds 30% of the time over the past decade. After the Red Wings, the Ottawa Senators hold each of the next best slots, one for their own pick, and one for the Sharks pick they acquired in the Erik Karlsson deal.
  • Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman hasn’t engaged with their impending free agents, a list largely comprised of arbitration-eligible restricted free agents, per The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus. Goaltender Corey Crawford is their highest-issue unrestricted free agent, as the 35-year-old netminder held sway between the pipes for two Chicago championships. Restricted free agent Drake Caggiula also presents an interesting case, writes Lazerus, as the speedster expected that his broken hand would be the end of his season. The long layoff and expanded playoff pool has presented Caggiula with an opportunity to build his case ahead of what’s expected to be a rather tepid free agency.

One Trade The Islanders Would Like To Have Back

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While we await the return of the NHL, it’s a great time to look back at some of the influential transactions in NHL history. Yesterday we looked at the Capitals ill-fated midseason acquisition of winger Martin Erat. The deal cost them Filip Forsberg, who has developed the way Nashville hoped he would, while Erat provided little value at all during his short stay in Washington. But if we’re going to look at trades that helped shape our current era of NHL hockey – for better or worse – we should start at the top (or the bottom).

For trades worth second-guessing, there are very few as satisfying as the deal made between the Islanders and Senators way back in 2001. The deal sent Zdeno Chara to Ottawa along with Bill Muckalt and a 1st-round pick in exchange for Alexei Yashin. It’s frankly amazing that a deal from 2001 would include players still contributing in the NHL today, some nineteen years later, but that speaks to the impact of this transaction.

To find where the Islanders went wrong, there’s no better place to start than with Chara. Lots must go right for a player to reach his full potential, but that’s exactly what happened after Chara went to Ottawa. The deal came after Chara spent parts of four seasons in Long Island, and the then-23-year-old hadn’t really taken off. He was coming off a season in which he played in 82 games, but managed only 9 points and a plus/minus of -27. The Islanders weren’t a playoff team, finishing the 2000-2001 season in fifth place with 52 points.

Of course, things went much better for Chara from that point forth, as the hulking blueliner earned six Norris nominations (one win), seven All-Star honors, and he won a Stanley Cup with the Bruins in 2011. He’s also the NHL’s active leader in Plus/Minus (288) and Defensive Win Shares (99). The Senators only got four seasons from Chara, but they were among the best regular-season teams in the NHL during those years, making the playoffs each of those four seasons, and even managed to beat the Islanders in the first round of the 2002-2003 playoffs.

To make matters worse, Chara wasn’t the only piece the Islanders sent out on that ill-fated day in 2001. Bill Muckalt also went north in that deal, though the right-winger is at least one piece Islanders’ fans don’t have to lose sleep over. He played just one season in Ottawa, and he would be out of the league not two years later.

There’s one final piece. The Islanders sent the 2nd overall selection in the draft to the Senators, a pick that turned into center Jason Spezza. Spezza starred in the middle for eleven years in Ottawa, making two All-Star teams as one of the game’s stellar goal creators. He’s 91st all-time in the NHL now in Adjusted Points (1015) and 92nd all-time in Assists (599). At age-37, he’s a veteran presence on a Toronto Maple Leafs team that will look to enter the playoff field with a win against Columbus whenever play resumes.

Considering the Senators nabbed two all-timers from New York, this has to qualify as a pretty good deal for them. But there’s a give-and-take to every good deal right? Perhaps not so much. The Senators sent Alexei Yashin to the Islanders. Yashin was a fine player, just a year removed from a second-place finish for the Hart Trophy, but they gave up a lot to get him. To make matters worse, the Islanders doubled down and gave him a 10-year, $84MM contract less than three months after the trade, a contract that would have paid Yashin through his age-37 season. For examples of players remaining viable that deep into their careers, we need not look any further than Chara and Spezza. Unfortunately, the Islanders bet on the wrong horse. Yashin wouldn’t come close to recouping the value the Islanders poured into him. They bought him out after the sixth year.

Alexis Lafreniere Wins CHL Player Of The Year For Second Straight Season

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When your name is in the running for the first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft, it doesn’t hurt to have a bullet point on your resume that only Sidney Crosby shares in hockey history. Forward Alexis Lafreniere of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic is projected to be the top pick in the 2020 draft almost unanimously. Any doubt that he may not take that title was likely put to rest on Wednesday when the CHL announced that Lafreniere had been named the 2019-20 CHL Player of the Year. As if that wasn’t enough of an accomplishment, this is actually the second straight campaign in which Lafreniere has received the award. He was named the CHL’s best player in 2018-19 as well. The only other player honored in consecutive seasons: Pittsburgh Penguins captain and one of the game’s all-time best, Sidney Crosby.

Lafreniere, 18, recorded an eye-popping 112 points in just 52 games this season with Rimouski. His 2.15 per-game scoring rate was the CHL’s best since another NHL mega star, Connor McDavid, was playing juniors. It also marks a sharp increase from Lafreniere’s 2018-19 production of 105 points in 61 games, which was still good enough to take home the CHL’s Player of the Year honors last season. Altogether, Lafreniere registered 72 goals and 217 points in 113 games across his two MVP campaigns and nearly 300 points total in his three junior seasons combined. As a result, there is approximately a 0% chance that he will ever play in the juniors again.

Instead, the presumptive top pick will simply sit and wait to see where his first pro destination will be. The NHL answer could arrive as early as later this month, as the NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for Friday, June 26th. However, if the nearby Ottawa Senators or the historically bad Detroit Red Wings or one of the other non-playoff teams does not win the first to select first overall, Lafreniere will have to wait even longer. A second lottery later this summer would determine which playoff team eliminated in the knockout round of the NHL’s adapted playoff format would have the first pick. On top of that, there is still some concern that with a possible delayed start to the 2020-21 NHL season that Lafreniere’s pro career may actually begin in Europe. The young star has entertained the thought of getting his first pro season started on time, even if that isn’t with his NHL club. He would of course be expected to return to North America once the new season does begin.

Regardless of where Lafreniere ends up, any team that has him in their lineup will receive a major boost. Lafreniere has shown for several years now that he is a special prospect and his second straight CHL Player of the Year Award puts him in elite company. Is it too early to proclaim him the next Crosby? Of course. That won’t stop the winners of this year’s draft lottery from keeping their hopes up though.

Josh Norris Wins AHL Rookie Of The Year

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It’s been quite the season for Ottawa Senators prospect Josh Norris, who kicked off his professional career after two successful years at the University of Michigan. Not only did Norris lead all first-year AHL players in scoring with 61 points in 56 games, but he was named to the All-Rookie and First All-Star Teams as well. Today, the league announced what was obvious after those previous accolades: Norris is your AHL Rookie of the Year, winning the Dudley (Red) Garrett Memorial Award.

Originally selected 19th overall by the San Jose Sharks in 2017, Norris was a key part of the Erik Karlsson trade the next year. At that point, the young forward was still in college and unsigned, but it was obvious he had huge potential as a future top-six contributor.

The 21-year old even got a chance to suit up with Ottawa for a few games, but will still be looking for his first NHL point when things resume in the winter. Whether he starts with the big club is unclear, but Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion did call Norris a “future star” today on a conference call with reporters including Wayne Scanlan of Sportsnet.

Potential Compliance Buyout Candidates: Part III

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As the current Coronavirus crisis wears on, it seems more and more likely that the NHL will not be able to complete the full remaining regular season schedule and talk of an expanded playoff field might indicate that there will be no return to the regular season at all. That lost revenue is expected to impact the 2020-21 salary cap, likely keeping the current $81.5MM upper limit in place. Given that teams expected an increase, initially projected to be between $84-88.2MM, this stagnation could have a harsh impact on a number of clubs’ cap situations. As such, many expect that compliance buyouts will return in some form or fashion to ease that pain. These buyouts, which do not count against the salary cap, would allow for teams to open up space that they otherwise expected from a cap increase.

After taking a look at teams 1-10, then 11-20, here is a breakdown of the names that the final 11 clubs could use a compliance buyout on, if they opt to use one at all:

Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan

While the oncoming cap crunch caused by COVID-19 will not impact the Senators, who have sat at or near the bottom of the league’s salary ranks in recent years, owner Eugene Melnyk is not one to miss out on an opportunity to save money. In the case of Ryan, that would mean casting off a player who has overcome the adversity of addiction to resume his career, but don’t expect that to stop the Senators from moving on. Ryan’s remaining two years and $15MM in actual salary represents a large chunk of what Ottawa owes its current roster. Ryan has not played at a level becoming of a $7.25MM player at any point over the course of his time with the Senators, but especially over the past four years in which he has failed to crack 50 points in any season. At 33 years old, Ryan’s best days are behind him and Ottawa won’t hesitate to but him out and face the potential public relations backlash.

Philadelphia Flyers: Shayne Gostisbehere

The Flyers are right up against the salary cap and will have to create some space if the upper limit does not move this off-season as had been expected. The team has been trying to trade Gostisbehere in the midst of a down year, but to no avail. It may seem counter-intuitive for a contender to give away a 27-year-old regular defenseman for free via buyout, but Gostisbehere is trending in the wrong direction and has three years at $4.5MM AAV remaining on his deal. If Philly cannot find a trade, which obviously would be the more ideal solution, they may not have a better alternative to clear space without buying out a more impactful player. Some may point to last summer’s Kevin Hayes mega-contract as a worse deal to consider moving, but it seems highly unlikely that the team would move on from Hayes this soon after signing him, especially since his production this season has been on par with his career numbers.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Jack Johnson

It was pretty obvious right from the start that Johnson was not going to be a value player for the Penguins. Many were skeptical of his 2018 signing right from the start and he has done little to prove those critics wrong. A minus player whose offensive ceiling now sits in the mid-teens, Johnson is 33 and his best days are well behind him. The Penguins are another team that needs as much cap space as they can create to keep their roster together. Can they really afford to pay Johnson $9.75MM against the cap over the next three years to be a bottom pair defenseman who is more often a liability than an asset? Pittsburgh has the depth on defense to make up for the loss and could desperately use the cap flexibility elsewhere.

San Jose Sharks: Martin Jones

Entering an off-season with a deep goalie market, which could grow even deeper with compliance buyouts, few teams would be happier to have a get-out-of-jail-free card than the Sharks. Goaltending, and their starter Jones in particular, has been at the heart of San Jose’s struggles over the past two years. Once seen as a safe bet to be a solid long-term starter, Jones has been unable to produce even passable numbers in the past couple of seasons. However, with four years and $23MM remaining on Jones’ deal – a $5.75MM AAV, it seemed hopeless for the team improve in net without either an expensive buyout, a painful trade, or a very overpriced backup. This scenario would be exactly what the team needed and there is little doubt that they would move on swiftly from Jones, re-focusing his cap space on improving the roster, most important of which would be finding his replacement(s).

St. Louis Blues: Alex Steen

Steen may be a respected veteran coming off of a championship season, but he is also one of the Blues’ few reasonable candidates for a buyout. St. Louis does not have many long-term contracts and has arguably no bad long-term contracts. Steen, 36, is also one of only three players over 31 signed through this season. Without many bad deals or regressing veterans to compete with, Steen’s final year at $5.75MM looks ugly, especially since his production has dropped off immensely in each of the past two seasons to just 17 points this year. Perhaps the only other buyout option for St. Louis would be backup goaltender Jake Allen if the determine that Steen’s experience and versatility is of greater value. However, Allen is younger and cheaper and coming off a bounce-back season in which he was one of the best backups in the NHL. Steen seems like the more reasonable selection.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tyler Johnson

Tampa Bay was always going to have to blow up its core to accommodate its young players. However, a flat cap not only ensures that this time has come this off-season, it also makes the situation much worse. In order to sign a number of key restricted free agents, the Bolts must move out a considerable amount of salary this summer. Normally, players like Johnson, Yanni Gourde, and Ondrej Palat would have enough value to garner a nice trade return rather than needing a buyout. However, in an off-season where most teams could be up against the cap, acquiring a $5MM+ player will be easier said than done. Making it even harder is that all three hold No-Trade clauses and may not be willing to accept a deal to the types of team that can afford to acquire them. Of this trio, the Lightning are most likely to keep Palat; although he is the most expensive, he is also the most valuable. Gourde is slightly more expensive than Johnson’s $5MM AAV, but is also slightly younger and has largely outplayed Johnson over the past few years. Gourde is a more valuable asset than Johnson, which could mean he is easier to trade or it could mean that Tampa tries to find a way to keep him. Johnson seems like the odd man out. An undersized forward whose numbers fell off considerably this season to just 31 points and who is signed for four more years, Johnson is a trade risk, especially in a cap-strapped market. The odds are that some team would find a way to take him via trade – if he agrees – but if the Lightning get desperate they may have to buy him out. He’s their most reasonable candidate if it comes to that.

Toronto Maple Leafs: None

The Toronto Maple Leafs really don’t have any need for a compliance buyout at this point in time. The team is very young, many players have been extended recently, and arguably none have fallen so short of expectations that they warrant a buyout. Unless the Leafs trade for a bad contract simply to use their compliance buyout, it would be a surprise to see the club get in on the action this off-season.

Vancouver Canucks: Loui Eriksson

The Canucks have wanted to get rid of Eriksson for some time and with a compliance buyout they would be free to do so. The veteran forward has been one of Vancouver’s highest paid players since he joined the club in 2016, yet he has never recorded more than 30 points in a year through four seasons with the Canucks. At odds with coaches and severely underperforming relative to his $6MM AAV, Eriksson has worn out his welcome in Vancouver. However, he still has two years remaining on his contract. The team would be quick to erase that from the books. This buyout is a no-brainer; what is more interesting is whether Eriksson can return to his status as a valuable two-way forward with another team.

Vegas Golden Knights: None

Like the Maple Leafs, the Golden Knights simply don’t have any obvious candidate for a buyout. They have done well with their long-term contracts and have a roster constructed of players who they want in the lineup, including several who they have recently re-signed. That includes Nick Holden, who may be the only player who could have been considered an odd man out but recently took a pay cut to re-sign for two more years with Vegas. No one else jumps out as a player that the club would entertain giving up for free.

Washington Capitals: Nick Jensen

As good as the Capitals are and have been, this one is a toss-up because there are a number of players who could go. T.J. Oshie was brought in to win a Stanley Cup and has accomplished that task. He is still producing at a high level, but could the team cut ties with the 33-year-old while they have the chance rather than face the remaining five years and $28.75MM left on his contract? Lars Eller and Carl Hagelin, both on the wrong side of 30 and both signed for three more years, are in a similar boat. Their scoring is fine relative to their cap hit, but will it continue to be through the length of their contracts? Depending on how much room the Capitals may need to clear, any of these three could be a candidate for a buyout. However, Washington can impact their performance and their locker room far less by opting for Jensen instead. In his first full season with the team, Jensen has not been bad, but he has drawn his fair share of criticism. Jensen’s offense, though not typically a hallmark of his game, has been non-existent and he has been prone to turnovers and blown assignments. If the Capitals need to use a compliance buyout, they can likely find a better use for $7.5MM over the next three years.

Winnipeg Jets: Mathieu Perreault

The Jets have great depth at forward an nearly everyone carries the weight of their contracts. Perreault is an exception. The 32-year-old’s point totals have fallen in each of the past three seasons to just 15 points in 49 games this year. At a cap hit of $4.125, Perreault is not doing enough. He’s not the answer at second-line center and he’s overpaid to play in the bottom-six. There’s no place for Perreault and the team would likely be willing to move on a year early. While Bryan Little has also shown signs of slowing down and his signed for far longer and for more than Perreault, his lack of impact in 2019-20 is tied to injury. Even if injury issues persist, Little’s cap hit does not cause a problem when he is not active, so Perreault still makes more sense a buyout candidate.

AHL Announces 2019-20 All-Rookie Team

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Now that the AHL season is officially over, awards and accolades will start pouring out for its players. Today, the league announced the 2019-20 All-Rookie Team, which is voted on by coaches, players, and media. Though not a guarantee of future NHL success, the AHL rookie team has a long history of star players including captains, Stanley Cup champions, and future Hall of Fame members.

The 2019-20 selections:

G Cayden Primeau, Laval Rocket (Montreal Canadiens)

D Joey Keane, Hartford Wolf Pack/Charlotte Checkers (Carolina Hurricanes)

D Brogan Rafferty, Utica Comets (Vancouver Canucks)

F Alex Formenton, Belleville Senators (Ottawa Senators)

F Joshua Norris, Belleville Senators (Ottawa Senators)

F Jack Studnicka, Providence Bruins (Boston Bruins)

Mikkel Boedker Signs In NLA

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Though the Ottawa Senators technically haven’t been eliminated from play in 2019-20 yet, Mikkel Boedker has already planned the next step of his hockey career. The veteran forward has signed a two-year contract with HC Lugano in the Swiss NLA that will begin whenever the Senators season is officially over.

Boedker, 30, is in the last season of a four-year, $16MM deal signed with the San Jose Sharks in 2016. The speedy winger was originally selected eighth overall by the Arizona Coyotes in 2008, and though he does have some success at the NHL level he never became that dominant offensive presence that many believed he could be.

Through 709 NHL contests, Boedker scored 118 goals and 327 points, only making the playoffs on a handful of occasions. Senators fans will likely only remember him as part of a frustrating sequence of trades that ended up with Mike Hoffman heading to a division rival, given he played just 91 games for the team over the last two seasons.

A two-year deal at this point may mean Boedker’s NHL journey is over, but it certainly doesn’t mean he will disappear from the hockey consciousness. One of the best players in the world from Denmark, he has competed at six World Championships, Olympic qualifiers, and a World Cup for his country.

Groulx: Anders Nilsson Could Play A Few Games If Play Resumes

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  • Senators goaltender Anders Nilsson should be able to return if regular season play resumes, goalie coach Pierre Groulx told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. He was sidelined by a concussion back in December and only passed his baseline testing last month.  However, with Ottawa well out of contention and a likely desire to give Marcus Hogberg as much playing time to evaluate him for a full-time spot for 2020-21, they will likely limit Nilsson’s action to only a handful of games at most.

Ottawa Senators Sign Artem Zub

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May 1: The Senators have officially announced a one-year contract for Zub, now that his KHL deal has expired. Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion released a statement:

We’re pleased that Artem has elected to pursue an NHL career here in Ottawa. Artem is a smart defensive defenceman who moves the puck well and who utilizes his strength and mobility to make plays. His extensive international resume will help him transition to a North American style of play but his key attribute is his sound ability to defend.

March 27: The Senators have long been the front-runners to sign Russian defenseman Artem Zub and it appears that they will indeed be getting him.  After a report earlier in the week had Ottawa on Zub’s shortlist, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the Sens are expected to sign him to an entry-level contract.  His KHL contract runs through the end of April so an official announcement won’t come until May at the earliest.

The 24-year-old has been on the NHL radar for the last couple of years after a strong showing at the 2018 Olympics.  While he hasn’t been a big point producer with SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL (though he managed 22 points this year), he has been a reliable defender in his own end and logged more than 19 minutes a night this season.  Zub also had a +35 rating in 57 games; while plus/minus isn’t as important as it once was among stats; it’s worth noting that the next best defender in that stat on his team was only +12.

Ottawa’s back end is certainly in need of some improvements with several spots up for grabs for next season.  Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev, and Mike Reilly are the only established blueliners under contract for 2020-21 so Zub could certainly step into an important role right away and give them a quality upgrade as they look to start progressing towards battling for a playoff spot.

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