The offseason has arrived for all but two teams now with the playoffs nearing an end. Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming weeks with free agency fast approaching. Next up is a look at Colorado.
The Avalanche set a franchise record with three straight 100-point regular seasons in 2023-24 and extended that streak in 2024-25, although their .622 points percentage was still their worst in six years. That record was influenced by one of the biggest in-season resets in recent memory, carried out by general manager Chris MacFarland, who managed to give his club a new goaltending tandem and swap out a large portion of their forward group between opening night and the postseason. While the team had an excellent record down the stretch, winning 16 of their last 23 games, they lost a seven-game heartbreaker to the Stars in the first round. With a brand-new support staff for Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar in tow, Colorado has a few items to tend to this summer to extend their championship contention window.
Solidify Nečas’ Future
Star winger Mikko Rantanen was a pending unrestricted free agent last summer; extension talks for him were an item on their 2024 offseason checklist. They now enter the same situation with Martin Nečas, the centerpiece of their return when they sent Rantanen to the Hurricanes in January following unproductive contract negotiations. He’ll become a pending UFA on July 1 as he enters the back half of the two-year, $13MM bridge deal he signed with Carolina as a restricted free agent in 2024.
Nečas’ trade value had never been higher than when Carolina dealt him. The Czech forward was on pace to break the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career with a 16-39–55 line in 49 games at the time of the trade. Even though 55 points was his career average per 82 games entering the season, the Avs hoped that might be sustainable if they plopped Nečas in Rantanen’s spot next to MacKinnon, a higher-caliber center than he had in Raleigh-Durham.
Instead, things went about as expected for Nečas in Colorado. He saw his minutes increase, skating over 20 minutes per game after averaging 17-18 during his time in Carolina, but his production tapered off slightly from his early-season tear. He still managed 11 goals and 28 points in 30 games to end the year, which still would have been a career-high 0.93 points per game pace over a full season on their own, but predictably didn’t click at the well above a point per game rate Rantanen had over the last five years in Denver.
Nečas will still be one of the Avalanche’s better-value contracts last season at a $6.5MM cap hit if he can play a full season, something he’s had no trouble doing, and remain around that 75-80 point pace. However, unlike waiting until after the season started to have aggressive extension talks with Rantanen, they’ll look to kick Nečas’ discussions off earlier to avoid a repeat and force another in-season blockbuster to avoid losing him for nothing next summer. Yet with a rising cap, he’s due a considerable raise. AFP Analytics projects a Nečas extension with a $9.9MM cap hit for seven seasons, considering the salary cap’s projected jump to $104MM for the 2026-27 campaign. MacFarland needs to begin weighing if that’s a price he’s willing to pay with Makar becoming extension-eligible in the summer of 2026.
Create Cap Flexibility
Outside of Nečas, the Avs don’t have much in the way of major contract business to attend to. They’ve had a busy past few weeks, keeping new second-line center Brock Nelson in the fold on a three-year extension with a $7.5MM cap hit. They also got their new starting goaltender, Mackenzie Blackwood, signed to a five-year extension shortly after acquiring him from the Sharks in December.
The good news is they already have 19 of 23 roster spots locked in for next season as a result. The bad news is that they have just $1.2MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, only enough to sign one league-minimum player and carry a roster with no healthy extras. At present, they stand no chance of re-signing their two top UFAs, winger Jonathan Drouin and defenseman Ryan Lindgren. Even one cap-dump trade likely won’t be enough to bring back one of them, but it would at least allow them to add more cheap pickups (or re-sign a few of their own) while having in-season flexibility in case short-term injuries arise.
The few inefficient contracts on Colorado’s books will be under scrutiny as a result. They sent Casey Mittelstadt to the Bruins at the trade deadline to acquire veteran Charlie Coyle to serve as their new third-line center, but he carries a $5.25MM price tag. With MacKinnon and Nelson, their top two centers, now making a combined $20.1MM against the cap, that’s not an affordable number for a No. 3 – even if he ended the year strong with 13 points in 19 games. With only one year left on his deal and one year removed from a career-high 60 points with Boston, they wouldn’t have much trouble moving him at first glance. However, they’d need to convince Coyle to waive his no-movement clause, something he may not be eager to do again after waiving it to join a championship contender in Colorado.
There’s also Ross Colton, whose $4MM cap hit is fine value in a vacuum but, again, a tad pricey for a third-line winger. Moving Coyle and saving an additional $1.25MM in space would be far preferable, but it would be easier to move Colton, who only has a modified no-trade clause and had a 16-13–29 scoring line in 61 games last season. Injury-prone depth winger Miles Wood, who’s less expensive at $2.5MM per season, could also be someone Colorado looks to ship out, but that could also prove semi-challenging with four years left on his contract. He also has a six-team no-trade list.
That might mean Colorado turns to their defense, where their depth is far weaker, as a necessity to free up space. They wouldn’t be looking to deal either of their major trade candidates, second-pairing fixtures Samuel Girard and Josh Manson, purely as a cap dump as a result, particularly without many suitable options to replace them in free agency. They’d be looking to attach an asset to them to gain a more cost-efficient roster player back, even if they’re getting a worse overall player, to be able to spread the wealth a little more behind their elite top pairing of Makar and Devon Toews. Girard has two years left on his contract at $5MM per season with a nine-team no-trade list, while Manson has one year left at $4.5MM with a 12-team no-trade list.
Find A New Power Play Coach
While the Avalanche continued to boast a top-10 power play in the regular season as they have for many years, they converted at just a 13.6% clip against Dallas in the first round. That was 14th out of 16 playoff teams and enough of a margin of error to cost assistant coach Ray Bennett, who had been responsible for the man-advantage unit under head coach Jared Bednar for the last eight seasons, his job.
Bennett has since landed with the Isles, but the Avalanche, who only operate with two assistants (not including a goalie coach) under Bednar instead of the standard three anyway, have yet to name his replacement. That means Nolan Pratt currently serves as Bednar’s lone assistant. This arrangement obviously won’t stretch into the regular season, but for a team with scoring talent of Colorado’s caliber, they need to find their desired option as Bennett’s successor quickly amid other teams filling their AC vacancies.
One name to speculatively watch out for is former Oilers head coach Jay Woodcroft. He was a finalist for a few head coach vacancies this offseason but was passed over for all of them. There’s now a potential new opportunity for him in Dallas after the Stars fired Pete DeBoer, but if he’s not considered for the gig, he has experience managing a wealth of high-end scoring talent in Edmonton with good results and could be a natural fit.
Add Defensive Depth
As alluded to earlier, the Avs simply need more behind Makar and Toews on the blue line. This item is a bit of a TBD based on how they handle any potential Girard or Manson trade.
Assuming they manage to open up a bit of flexibility somehow, they still need some third-pairing upgrades even if Girard and Manson remain on next year’s roster. Big lefty Keaton Middleton is a fine press-box option at his peak but not a legitimate everyday third-pairing option on a contender. Righty Sam Malinski played 76 games this season and, while a pending RFA, should be cheap to re-sign and would be a good value piece as Colorado’s 3RD if so. They need a more competent two-way partner for him than Middleton at the very least, though.
That will presumably be the focus of their likely minimal activity in free agency. While not particularly inspiring, there are affordable pending UFAs like Marc Del Gaizo, Joel Hanley, and Jonathon Merrill who can comfortably average more than the paltry 11:29 per game of deployment Middleton received in his 41 games this season. If they manage to clear up more considerable cap space, they could begin to consider some higher-caliber lefties like Brian Dumoulin, Matt Grzelcyk, or Nate Schmidt to play sheltered minutes behind Toews and Girard on the left side, or potentially even bring back Lindgren.
Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images.
Necas had one postseason goal. Stankhoven had five.