Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

The offseason has arrived with the draft and free agency fast approaching.  Accordingly, it’s time to look at what each team needs to accomplish this summer.  Next up is a look at Edmonton.

Like usual, the Oilers were one of the league’s streakier teams in the regular season. They had a couple of ruts, and although they weren’t as offensively dominant as they were in years past, they still managed third place in the Pacific Division with a 101-point season. That didn’t mean much as the Oilers dominated their way to the Stanley Cup Final, going 12-4 in the first three rounds before losing the championship series to the Panthers for the second season in a row. General manager Stan Bowman now has to navigate another offseason of limited spending flexibility in Edmonton while having some must-needed improvements to make.

Lock Up Bouchard

The Oilers haven’t had many impact players arrive through the draft since Connor McDavid ended their string of high-end picks (for the most part) in 2015. They have hit on one of them, though, selecting defenseman Evan Bouchard 10th overall back in 2018.

Bouchard became a full-time NHL player in 2021-22 and had a good rookie season with 12 goals and 43 points, averaging nearly 20 minutes per game. He took a small step back offensively in his sophomore campaign, putting up 40 points in 82 games, but found a new gear in the postseason as he posted 17 points in just 12 games to lead the 2023 postseason in scoring among defensemen despite Edmonton being eliminated in the second round. That was a sign of things to come, but the cap-strapped Oilers opted to bridge him upon expiry of his entry-level contract that summer, signing him to a two-year, $7.8MM deal instead of freeing up space to commit to Bouchard long-term.

That’s a decision that may come back to haunt them. Now an RFA again, Bouchard has finished top 11 in Norris Trophy voting each of the last two seasons and, while he has some visible defensive faults, plays an elite possession game and has established himself as one of the league’s top offensive rearguards. He’s scored 149 points in his last 163 games, averaged a career-high 23:28 per game in 2024-25, and he’s one of the most productive playoff defensemen in league history. Among D-men with at least 50 postseason games, his 1.08 points per game are second only to Bobby Orr’s 1.24.

There’s no other option here besides a max-term extension for Bouchard, and they need to do it quickly to avoid the threat of a short-term offer sheet with a high AAV that would be too prohibitive to match. According to AFP Analytics, that deal is projected to cost the Oilers in the high $10MM range per season. They did themselves a favor today by opening up $5.125MM in cap space by trading Evander Kane to the Canucks with no salary retention. Still, they likely need to make another cap-clearing move, too – potentially underperforming winger Viktor Arvidsson and his $4MM cap hit – to be able to sign Bouchard and make some other roster alterations comfortably.

Work On McDavid Extension

There’s been little doubt in the past few seasons that this summer would result in a max-term extension for McDavid to avoid any talk of a free-agency departure in 2026 and restore his place as the league’s highest-paid player. After a second straight Cup Final loss, though, doubt has crept into public opinion. Those fires were stoked more over the weekend when Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reported that no deal was expected to come across the wire in the near future and that it may not be an eight-year deal if it gets done. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug added that informal negotiations will begin this week, but they’re not close to a position of exchanging initial numbers.

Those talks come after somewhat of a down season for the 28-year-old. He dealt with injuries and a suspension that limited him to 67 games, his lowest total in an 82-game schedule since a collarbone fracture limited him to 46 appearances in his rookie campaign. Of course, a “down season” for the best player in the world still means 74 assists and 100 points, even if his 0.39 goals per game were his lowest total since the 2016-17 campaign. 2024-25 also marked the first time McDavid went without a First Team All-Star selection in back-to-back seasons.

Nonetheless, he will assuredly eclipse teammate Leon Draisaitl’s $14MM cap hit and once again become the league’s highest-paid player sometime in the next 12 months, no matter the team and no matter the length of the contract. Draisaitl signed his extension for 14.67% of the salary cap – if McDavid signs for 15% at the projected $104MM for 2026-27, that would mean a $15.6MM cap hit. He’ll likely get even more – AFP Analytics’ extension projection is a four-year deal at $16.35MM per season, a reasonable bet if he opts for a bridge deal to maximize his career flexibility, particularly if the Oilers enter next season with a weaker roster.

It all comes down to how soon and for how long McDavid is willing to commit to Edmonton. They’ll almost certainly write him a blank check, so the ball will be in his court throughout extension talks. Winning a championship, not cash, will be his top priority. While that gives the Oilers some leverage, they at least need to provide McDavid with the hope/promise that Edmonton is his best chance of winning a Stanley Cup.

Improve Goaltending Situation

Saying goaltending has been an issue for Edmonton in recent years would be an understatement. They haven’t had a legitimate No. 1 netminder since Cam Talbot’s brief peak from 2015 to 2018. Stuart Skinner has been a high-ceiling option at times, but at least so far, simply doesn’t have the game-to-game consistency to get Edmonton to their first Cup win since 1990.

He’s also coming off an exceptionally difficult 2024-25 campaign. His .896 SV% in the regular season was a career-low among his seasons as a full-timer, and that figure dropped to an .889 mark in the postseason. The Oilers faced enough high-profile offensive clubs that Skinner was actually still a league-average goalie compared to the quality he faced, but the last team to win a championship without high-end playoff goaltending was the Avalanche in 2022.

Skinner is still an extremely cost-effective option for the club at a $2.6MM cap hit, though, as is backup Calvin Pickard for $1MM. They’re both entering the final year of their contracts and will be UFAs in 2026. Neither warrants entering extension discussions now with much bigger fish to fry in Edmonton. It might make sense for the Oilers to trade away one of them – either in an in-kind trade for an upgrade or to help open space to pursue the top UFA option in veteran Jake Allen. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Edmonton running things back with the same tandem in 2025-26.

Look At Depth Scoring Upgrades

The Oilers were one of the more active teams in free agency last summer, at least in terms of the volume of signings meant for the NHL roster. They were all veteran wingers on short-term deals, namely Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, while also retaining Corey Perry. Aside from the last name, those pickups didn’t work out. Both Arvidsson and Skinner were healthy scratches in the playoffs, and neither one had more than 30 points in the regular season.

Their cap situation dictates they’ll need to take a similar approach this summer. They’ll need to be better at identifying who has the upward mobility to play with McDavid or Draisaitl, though, and should be open to younger reclamation projects as well. They’ve already added some cheap insurance in the form of reigning SHL scoring leader David Tomasek on the open market, but will look for NHL-experienced options too as cap space allows. There’s an extension in the works for deadline acquisition Trent Frederic, which should go a long way toward solidifying their middle-six group if he can rediscover his 40-point ceiling.

Image courtesy of Sergei Belski-Imagn Images.