Offseason Checklist: Winnipeg Jets

The offseason has arrived for everyone with the Stanley Cup Final in the rearview.  Accordingly, it’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Winnipeg.

Expectations were mixed heading into the season for the Jets, who didn’t do a lot to reshape their roster after a 110-point season in 2023-24 while losing some key free agents as well. They managed to beat that record on the backs of continued dominance from their veterans, progress from young forwards, and an MVP-winning season from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. Despite the best regular season in franchise history, though, they were dispatched by the Stars in the second round and have now won only two playoff series in the last seven years. General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff now needs to get them over the hump with the high-end core he’s already established.

Re-Sign RFAs

At first glance, the Jets are well-positioned to be major players in free agency this summer with $26.43MM in cap space, per PuckPedia. That’s because multiple key pieces are on expiring contracts, though. Two of them, top-line winger Gabriel Vilardi and top-four defenseman Dylan Samberg, are under team control and need new deals sooner rather than later so the Jets know how much of that cap space they can devote to free-agent pickups.

Vilardi is 25 years old and only has one season of team control remaining. That makes a bridge deal improbable and a long-term contract, even a max-term one, all the more appealing for a player who scored a career-high 27 goals and 61 points in 71 games this season. However, Vilardi’s lengthy injury history likely rules that out. Those 71 games played were also a career-high for the 2017 No. 11 overall pick, coming off his sixth NHL season. He’s missed 20-plus games in a year twice and has only cracked the 60-game mark twice as well. As such, the Jets are likely looking at a four-year commitment for Vilardi around $6.8MM per season, according to AFP Analytics. If he’s amenable to that price, they’d do well to get an agreement around there quickly to remove the threat of arbitration or an offer sheet.

Samberg, 26, is in a better position to command a longer-term deal. He’s just beginning his prime as a high-end second-pairing option with good defensive acumen, posting 20 points and a +34 rating in 60 games last season while averaging north of 21 minutes per game alongside Neal Pionk as Winnipeg’s No. 2 left-shot option behind Josh Morrissey. He’s shown linear development over his first few NHL seasons, and Winnipeg should be comfortable keeping him in his current role for the rest of the decade without much fuss. AFP Analytics projects a five-year deal with a cap hit in the $5.25MM range for him. Those projections still leave Winnipeg somewhere in the $14MM-$15MM range to spend on five roster spots this summer.

Backup Plan For Ehlers

The door isn’t closed on pending UFA winger Nikolaj Ehlers staying in Winnipeg, but it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to entice him with an eighth year on an extension. He’ll test the open market to see what’s out there for him, and the Jets will have to wait in line like everyone else.

That means Winnipeg might have to offer Ehlers a seven-year deal north of $8.5MM, potentially even in the $9MM range, per season to avoid him leaving for an environment with more opportunity for him in a first-line role or somewhere more financially advantageous for the 29-year-old Dane. He’s well-positioned to cash in on the heels of a 63-point season in 69 games, the former standing as one short of a career-high. If the Jets aren’t willing to push into that range to keep his services – a likely bet considering he continues to inexplicably average south of 16 minutes per game – they need to quickly identify targets in free agency who can either replace his output directly or help do so by committee.

Their cap flexibility means they should be able to do that relatively easily, but the Winnipeg market is routinely a hard sell to players who have multiple comparable options on the table. They’ll have to pick and choose their desired players and be quite aggressive with them. They don’t have prospects ready to step directly into Ehlers’ shoes, but perhaps someone like 2022 first-rounder Brad Lambert could at least step into a top-nine role and produce a 30-to-35-point rookie season (third-line fixture Mason Appleton is a pending UFA as well).

They could also opt to be aggressive in pursuit of a second-line center and keep Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti, usually Ehlers’ center/winger combo in some capacity last year, as wingmen for a new middleman. There aren’t a ton of options out there, though, particularly after today’s Matt Duchene extension with the Stars. They’ll be trying to land some names in the next tier of UFA forwards like Brock Boeser, Jonathan Drouin, Mikael Granlund, and Pius Suter as a result, without much worry about what forward position they play.

Add Center Depth

Winnipeg’s relative weakness down the middle behind Mark Scheifele will be exacerbated to begin the season. Captain Adam Lowry will spend the first couple of months of the season on the shelf after offseason hip surgery, and frequent fourth-line center option Rasmus Kupari is off to spend the next two seasons in Switzerland.

The prospects of a big move are unlikely unless they’re willing to be aggressive on the trade front for someone like Wild center Marco Rossi, but they haven’t been mentioned in connection with his availability, and it’s exceedingly unlikely Minnesota would consider trading him to a divisional rival anyway. That leaves them with pursuing stopgap solutions like the aforementioned Granlund and Suter, who have top-six mobility, but they need another name or two for added bottom-six depth as well.

One of those could very well be Jonathan Toews. The former Blackhawks captain has spent the last couple of years out of the league as he deals with Chronic Immune Response Syndrome, but has been connected to Winnipeg ever since he publicized his desire for an NHL return last year. The interest is mutual, Cheveldayoff said in January, and it appears the Jets are on the Winnipeg native’s small list of finalists as he nears a decision in the coming days. At worst, he’s a fine fourth-line swap for Kupari.

They’d still like to add another name, presumably a sub-$1.5MM player like Sean Kuraly or Nico Sturm are expected to be, to help shoulder the load in the early going and take pressure off young players to take on center roles out of the gate. Even with a potential high-priced Ehlers contract, all of this should be doable under Winnipeg’s cap structure if they’re responsible with their RFA deals.

Connor Extension Talks

If the Jets aren’t careful, they’ll have back-to-back summers where big-name wingers could depart Winnipeg. Kyle Connor is entering the final year of his seven-year contract, which carries a team-friendly $7.14MM cap hit, and becomes eligible to sign an extension on July 1.

The 2024-25 First Team All-Star at left wing enters his contract year coming off a 41-goal showing, his second time hitting the 40-snipe mark. They have a strong appetite to get something done this summer and avoid the situation they find themselves at present with Ehlers. Considering the more bountiful success Connor has enjoyed in top-line minutes in Winnipeg, it’s likely he’d be more amenable to a long-term commitment.

Finding what the “right” number should be won’t be particularly tricky. He’s a slam-dunk 35-goal man with an extended run of success and even finished top 20 in Hart Trophy voting this season. There’s no question he’ll become Winnipeg’s new highest-paid player on an extension, one that AFP Analytics projects to be eight years at $12MM per season. Amid the rising cap and names like Mitch Marner expected to sniff $14MM on the open market this summer, the Jets shouldn’t have too many qualms about dealing out that big of a raise.

Image courtesy of Connor Hamilton-Imagn Images.