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Colorado’s Odds At The First Overall Pick

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Early this season, the Colorado Avalanche were in the most enviable position in sports. Their team was excelling and looking playoff-bound, but without any negative effect on their draft status. Because as the Avs won games, the Ottawa Senators were losing them and Colorado owned the Sens’ first-round pick this year as part of last season’s Matt Duchene trade. There was a real possibility that the Avalanche could be Stanley Cup contenders and also have the first overall pick in the draft. Lately, the Avs have looked less like a playoff team and more like the Senators. Colorado has four wins in their past 23 games dating back to mid-December and have slipped into a tie for tenth-place in the Western Conference, three points out of a playoff spot. The one silver lining: their odds at drafting No. 1 have improved and might end up being the best in several years.

Ahead of the 2014 NHL Draft, the NHL changed the draft lottery rules. Any team in the lottery could now move up into a top-three position and the odds would be more fairly distributed among all lottery teams. There have been slight variations in the odds for each draft, but the biggest shift came last year when the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights to the league added a fifteenth member of the lottery group and further split the odds. Yet, with 18.5% odds, the last-placed Buffalo Sabres still retained the first overall pick and drafted Rasmus Dahlin, a generational defenseman. This year’s prize, play-making forward Jack Hughes, is seen by most scouts as a guaranteed top-six center and power play wizard and the team with the worst record still stands the best chance of getting him by a significant margin.

Of course, the worst record looks like it will belong to Ottawa and thus the pick will belong to Colorado. The Senators are currently in 31st overall in the league standings, three points back of the Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils. If those standings hold, based on last year’s odds Colorado will have a 18.5% chance that the Ottawa pick will be first overall, compared to 13.5% for L.A. and 11.5% for New Jersey. Then, Colorado’s own pick comes into play. Currently, the Avs are technically 23rd overall. If they remain in that spot, they would have 5% odds that their own pick would be No. 1. Combined, they would have a 23.5% shot at picking first. Since 2014, no team has come close to having odds that high at the top pick and Colorado could continue to struggle down the stretch and improve the odds on their own pick. If the Avs were to slip three more spots in the league standings, their odds would be greater than 25%, giving them better than a one-in-four shot at Hughes.

The possibilities are even more intriguing when you consider the odds of both picks winning the lottery instead of just one. Currently, there is about a 0.9% chance that Colorado could pick first and second, not dissimilar odds to those that the final lottery team has of picking first. The addition of both Hughes and the presumptive No. 2 pick, Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko, would be an enormous influx of elite draft talent unseen since the Sedin twins landed with the Vancouver Canucks at second and third overall in 1999. There is a whopping 58% chance that both of their picks land in the top four, which would also be an unbelievable boost for the Avalanche with a number of impact forwards available in this class. And again, these odds can only improve if the Avalanche continue on this downward spiral. If the current standings hold, the worst that Colorado could do is to pick fourth and twelfth – which would still be a better first-round combination than any team in recent years – and the odds of that happening are approximately 18x less likely than picking both first and second; the best case is greater reality than the worst-case.

The moral of the story is that, while it’s disappointing for Avalanche fans to see a talented team plummeting down the standings, there is some upside as well. The team is young and built for the future and are in better shape than any team in recent memory to add the best player in the draft and perhaps two of the best available. So whether you’re a Colorado fan soley focused on Hughes or holding out for another top prospect as well, the team’s current slump is only helping in that pursuit. The ping pong balls will ultimately decide the Avs’ fate, but the future is bright.

Snapshots: Mock Draft, Arizona State, Jokinen

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Itching for the NHL Entry Draft already? Several fan bases are, as many teams are beyond a reasonable shot at the postseason as the unofficial second half of the season begins. After a recent rash of mid-season draft rankings were published, NHL.com writers Adam Kimelman, Mike Morreale, and Guillaume Lepage tried their hands at a mock draft of the first round for the upcoming draft. They did not conduct a lottery simulation nor did they try to predict how the playoffs would unfold, so the mock is strictly the current standings inverse. However, each of the trio made their own selections and interesting trends can already be spotted. Of course, all three had the Colorado Avalanche, using the Ottawa Senators’ first-rounder, taking U.S. National Team Development Program phenom Jack Hughes first overall. Regardless of who picks first, Hughes is the unanimous pick to go No. 1 in any scenario. There was also a consensus for Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko going second to the New Jersey Devils and Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin going third to the Los Angeles Kings. However, there was not much agreement the rest of the way. Western Hockey League centers Dylan Cozens and Kirby Dach and USNTDP forwards Alex Turcotte and Trevor Zegras went early for all three writers, but no two agreed on the fit for any one team. There was also dissent over the first defenseman taken and where, as Kimelman placed Swedish rearguard Philip Broberg at No. 6 to the New Jersey Devils, while Morreale and Lepage had Canadian blue liner Bowen Byram going No. 7 to the Florida Panthers or No. 8 to the Edmonton Oilers, respectively. One of the biggest surprises was Morreale’s selection of wunderkind goaltender Spencer Knight to the Panthers. While many consider Knight to be the best draft-eligible goalie prospect in some time, no keeper has been taken in the top ten since Carey Price in 2005. The other two writers had Knight at No. 14 to Colorado and No. 24 to the Vegas Golden Knights. Later in the round, opinions differed greatly on OHL defenseman Thomas Harley and hyped overage forward Brett Leason as well. There is still a lot to be decided about the upcoming draft board, not to mention the draft order and the impact of trades, but it is interesting to get a good look at this point in the season as the picture becomes more clear for both the teams and prospects.

  • Arizona State University continues to make waves this season in college hockey. In just their fourth year of existence as an NCAA program, ASU is currently ranked No. 17 in the country and could push for a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As AZ Central’s Jeff Metcalfe writes, the play of forward Johnny Walker and goalie Joey Daccord is making all of the difference and beginning to draw national attention. After blanking the immensely talented Boston University Terriers 3-0 on Saturday night, Walker’s two tallies put him in the NCAA lead for goal scoring, while Daccord’s shutout was his NCAA-best seventh of the year. Daccord, 22, was a seventh-round pick of the Ottawa Senators back in 2015 out of Cushing Academy and it is beginning to look like the Sens’ late-round waiver on the long-term project could pay off. Daccord is a junior and could be enticed to turn pro this off-season if Ottawa hopes to avoid him becoming a free agent after another year. Walker, 22, went undrafted as a Phoenix native playing in the NAHL and is only a sophomore at ASU. However, that won’t stop NHL teams from trying to pry him away from college to get a look at his near goal-per-game pace at the pro level. A tournament run by Arizona State would only further amplify the status of these unlikely heroes of the collegiate campaign.
  • Veteran forward Jussi Jokinen has been unable to find NHL employment this season. The fact is somewhat amazing considering Jokinen played in 14 or more games with four different NHL teams last season. The well-traveled 35-year-old signed a PTO with the Detroit Red Wings this summer, who would have become his tenth different NHL team, but it did not pan out and no one else has come calling. Finally, Jokinen has decided to move on. Finnish reporter Pasi Tuominen reports that Jokinen is set to sign with Karpat of the Liiga in his native Finland for the remainder of the season. Jokinen will be a valued mentor for top NHL prospects like Rasmus Kupari (LAK) and Aleksi Heponiemi (FLA) while with Karpat and may even lead the first-place team to a championship. Regardless, it is highly likely that Jokinen’s days in the NHL are done. The well-liked and respected forward leaves a great legacy behind him in North America, but will surely continue to play overseas for a few years to come.

 

Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko Lead Central Scouting Mid-Season Lists

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With the 2018-19 NHL season more than half over, the league’s Central Scouting Bureau has released their rankings of the best draft-eligible prospects from around the world. These players are eligible to be selected in just a few months at July’s draft in Vancouver, and two familiar names lead the way. Central Scouting breaks their lists into the top North American and International skaters and goaltenders, not directly comparing the groups. The top names from each are as follows:

North American Skaters:

  1. C Jack Hughes, USA National Team Development Program
  2. C Kirby Dach, Saskatoon Blades, WHL
  3. C Dylan Cozens, Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL
  4. D Bowen Byram, Vancouver Giants, WHL
  5. C Alex Turcotte, USA National Team Development Program

International Skaters:

  1. RW Kaapo Kakko, TPS, Finland (Liiga)
  2. RW Vasili Podkolzin, SKA St. Petersburg, Russia (MHL)
  3. D Philip Broberg, AIK, Sweden (Allsvenskan)
  4. C Ilya Nikolaev, Yaroslavl, Russia (MHL)
  5. D Victor Soderstrom, Brynas, Sweden (SHL)

North American Goalies:

  1. Spencer Knight, USA National Team Development Program
  2. Hunter Jones, Peterborough Petes, OHL
  3. Mads Sogaard, Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL

International Goalies:

  1. Pyotr Kochetkov, Ryazan, Russia (MHL)
  2. Samuel Hlavaj, Slovakia U20, Slovakia*
  3. Hugo Alnefelt, HV71, Sweden (Jr.)

Hlavaj recently joined the Lincoln Stars of the USHL. 

Snapshots: World Cup, Draft Rankings, Pettersson

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While there is no guarantee that a 2020 World Cup of Hockey occurs given the uncertainty surrounding the CBA talks between the NHL and NHLPA, the staff at The Athletic (subscription required) took a shot at what a Canadian roster would look like anyway. Once again the submitted rosters are overloaded by center talent, with Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Mark Scheifele, Patrice Bergeron, John Tavares, Ryan O’Reilly, Jonathan Toews, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos all making appearances.

That kind of depth down the middle has long been Canada’s claim to fame on the international hockey stage, though there are certainly more questions around the defensive group that has been suggested. It will be interesting to see what other names work their way into the conversation over the next year.

  • If the next World Cup decides to go with another young North American team, they may be drawing from the 2019 draft class that is loaded with talent. Sam Cosentino of Sportsnet released his latest ranking for the upcoming draft, and while Jack Hughes remains on top, World Junior gold medalist Kaapo Kakko has closed the gap. Finnish forward Kakko scored the golden goal that toppled Hughes and Team USA in the final game, and basically cemented him as a top-2 pick at this point.
  • It seems like the Vancouver Canucks might get their superstar forward back before long, as head coach Travis Green told the media today that Elias Pettersson will skate either Thursday or Friday of this week as he tries to return from a knee injury. Pettersson already missed time earlier this year with a concussion, but as Elliotte Friedman noted for Sportsnet, he’d have to miss a lot more to be caught in the Calder Trophy race.

2006 NHL Draft Take Two: Thirtieth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Our look back at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is now in full swing as we poll the PHR community to see who would have been selected in the first round and in what order knowing what we know now. Throughout this first round, we’ve seen potential Hall of Fame players switch teams, and multiple captains move up and down the draft board.

Here are the results of the redraft so far:

1st Overall: Jonathan Toews (St. Louis Blues)
2nd Overall: Claude Giroux (Pittsburgh Penguins)
3rd Overall: Nicklas Backstrom (Chicago Blackhawks)
4th Overall: Brad Marchand (Washington Capitals)
5th Overall: Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins)
6th Overall: Jordan Staal (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Milan Lucic (New York Islanders)
8th Overall: Kyle Okposo (Phoenix Coyotes)
9th Overall: Erik Johnson (Minnesota Wild)
10th Overall: Derick Brassard (Florida Panthers)
11th Overall: Bryan Little (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Nick Foligno (Atlanta Thrashers)
13th Overall: Semyon Varlamov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
14th Overall: Artem Anisimov (Vancouver Canucks)
15th Overall: Michael Grabner (Tampa Bay Lightning)
16th Overall: Patrik Berglund (San Jose Sharks)
17th Overall: Jeff Petry (Los Angeles Kings)
18th Overall: Jonathan Bernier (Colorado Avalanche)
19th Overall: Mathieu Perreault (Anaheim Ducks)
20th Overall: Michael Frolik (Montreal Canadiens)
21st Overall: Cal Clutterbuck (New York Rangers)
22nd Overall: James Reimer (Philadelphia Flyers)
23rd Overall: Leo Komarov (Washington Capitals)
24th Overall: Steve Mason (Buffalo Sabres)
25th Overall: Michal Neuvirth (St. Louis Blues)
26th Overall: Chris Stewart (Calgary Flames)
27th Overall: Andrew MacDonald (Dallas Stars)
28th Overall: Viktor Stalberg (Ottawa Senators)
29th Overall: Nikolay Kulemin (Phoenix Coyotes)

After being originally selected in the middle of the second round (44th overall to Toronto), Kulemin jumps to the bottom of the first round in our redraft and is the second straight player originally drafted by the Maple Leafs to come off the board.

Kulemin spent two post-draft seasons back home in Russia, playing with Magnitogorsk of the RSL (now the KHL) before crossing the pond in 2008.  He made an immediate impact with Toronto, cracking their lineup as a 20-year-old and tallying a respectable 31 points in 73 games in his rookie season.

While his numbers were largely the same in his sophomore campaign, he became one of their top scorers in 2009-10, tallying 30 goals along with 27 assists (numbers that remain his career high), providing the team with exceptional value in the first season of his two-year bridge deal.  His second season wasn’t anywhere near as productive though as his point total was cut in half and as a result, Toronto opted to again give him a short-term deal that only covered his remaining RFA years instead of locking him up long-term.  That turned out to be a prudent decision.

Following another stint in Russia during the lockout in 2012-13, Kulemin’s numbers rebounded slightly that season as he approached the half a point per game mark.  Unfortunately for Toronto, he struggled the following season, posting just 20 points and ending any thought of another contract with them in the process.

Despite his drop off in production, the Islanders surprisingly stepped up with a four-year, $16.75MM contract that didn’t make a lot of sense at the time and didn’t work out as well as they hoped.  While he had a decent run over the first three seasons (averaging just over 25 points per year in that span), that’s not a good return for that cap hit.  Last season was even rougher for him as he missed 69 games due to injuries including the final 67 games due to shoulder troubles.

Not surprisingly, that didn’t help his case for another contract in the NHL but he was able to land a three-year deal with Magnitogorsk and he’s off to a good start there with 10 goals through 25 games.  Considering he’ll be entering his age-35 season when that deal expires, there’s a good chance that he’s played his final NHL game.

While Kulemin never really became an impact scorer in the NHL aside from his third year in Toronto, he still carved out a nice career for himself.  He sits 14th in games played among players from this draft class and 16th in points, not bad for a player picked in the middle of the second round.

We now move to the thirtieth and final pick of the round which was held by the New Jersey Devils.  They opted for a physical, stay-at-home defenseman in Matt Corrente, a pick that didn’t pan out too well.  He played in 34 games with the Devils before bouncing around the minor leagues.  He retired following the 2015-16 season where he spent some time in the ECHL.  They’re clearly going to wind up with a better player in this draft than Corrente but who should they pick?  Have your say by voting in the poll below.

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Marshall Warren Commits To Boston College

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The U.S. National Development Team, as usual, is churning out top prospects this year and yet another has committed to a top college program. The team announced yesterday that Marshall Warren, a top-four defenseman for the U-18 squad, is set to join Boston College next season. Warren had previously indicated that he would play at Harvard, but has opted instead to join the Eagles, much like 2018 first-round selection Oliver Wahlstrom. Warren joins No. 1 defenseman Cam York (Michigan) and top-nine forward Patrick Moynihan (Providence) as USNTDP products to make their commitments in the past week.

Warren, 17, is considered a borderline first-round pick in the upcoming 2019 NHL Draft, unlikely to fall outside of the third round. At 5’11, 168 lbs., Warren isn’t going to check his way into a pro career, but is a strong skater with a history of solid production. Warren is capable in his own zone, but excels at carrying the puck and making plays. Warren notched 18 points in 34 games against USHL competition last season, outpacing even guaranteed first-rounder York. The young defender has been scoring at a slower clip so far this year and has growing to do, both physically and developmentally, but seems like he has upside yet to be tapped.

The Eagles hope that they can put Marshall in a position to truly blossom, as he becomes yet another addition to BC from this current US National Team. After adding the top college-bound player from last year’s draft in Wahlstrom, Boston College is set to add five USNTDP players currently, including Marshall, presumptive top-ten forward Matthew Boldy, No. 1-ranked goaltender Spencer Knight, forward Danny Weight, and defenseman Drew Helleson. Not to be outdone, rival Boston University will add five players of their own from the program in first-round talent Trevor Zegras up front and Alex Vlasic, Case McCarthy, Dominick Fensore, and Cade Webber on the back end. Marshall becomes just the latest piece of what should be a reignited rivalry and constant battle between national powers over the next few years.

Cam York Commits To The University Of Michigan

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In 2017, the University of Michigan watched shutdown defenseman Luke Martin get selected in the second round of the NHL Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes. Last year, smooth-skating Wolverines rearguard Quinn Hughes was drafted seventh overall by the Vancouver Canucks, the second defenseman off the board. With both players expected to turn pro after this season, there was some understandable concern about the Michigan blue line moving forward. Well, those fears can be put to rest, as the team is unlikely to miss a beat after today’s announcement. Cam York, one of the top draft-eligible defenseman of the 2019 class, is headed to Ann Arbor. The U.S. National Development Program announced that their star defender made his commitment to the University of Michigan official today.

York is considered by most to be one of the top two or three defensemen in the upcoming draft, alongside Canadian Bowen Byram and Swedes Philip Broberg and Victor Soderstrom. The Anaheim, California native is a guaranteed first round pick next June, if not top-ten. A product of Shattuck St. Mary’s, York joined the USNTDP last season and quickly earned a spot on the U-18 team. This season, York has been the program’s top defender and has the numbers to prove it. With 16 points through 21 games, York leads the team’s defensemen in scoring and is top-six overall in both points and assists.

At 5’11, 172 lbs., York is not a dominant physical presence on the back end, however he does possess a solid two-way game. Yet, where York is really dangerous is when he has the puck on his stick. A talented puck-mover, York pushes the pace of the game and sees the ice better than most his age. With passing accuracy and a strong shot, the 17-year-old is an offensive dynamo on the blue line. York should be able to dominate the college game with Michigan, so much so that he’s unlikely to be a Wolverine for more than a season or two. Michigan fans will take what they can get, as York will continue the team’s recent streak of having top play-makers on the blue line.

2006 NHL Draft Take Two: Twenty-Ninth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Our look back at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is now in full swing as we poll the PHR community to see who would have been selected in the first round and in what order knowing what we know now. Through the first 21 picks, we’ve already seen potential Hall of Fame players switch teams, and multiple captains move up and down the draft board.

Here are the results of the redraft so far:

1st Overall: Jonathan Toews (St. Louis Blues)
2nd Overall: Claude Giroux (Pittsburgh Penguins)
3rd Overall: Nicklas Backstrom (Chicago Blackhawks)
4th Overall: Brad Marchand (Washington Capitals)
5th Overall: Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins)
6th Overall: Jordan Staal (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Milan Lucic (New York Islanders)
8th Overall: Kyle Okposo (Phoenix Coyotes)
9th Overall: Erik Johnson (Minnesota Wild)
10th Overall: Derick Brassard (Florida Panthers)
11th Overall: Bryan Little (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Nick Foligno (Atlanta Thrashers)
13th Overall: Semyon Varlamov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
14th Overall: Artem Anisimov (Vancouver Canucks)
15th Overall: Michael Grabner (Tampa Bay Lightning)
16th Overall: Patrik Berglund (San Jose Sharks)
17th Overall: Jeff Petry (Los Angeles Kings)
18th Overall: Jonathan Bernier (Colorado Avalanche)
19th Overall: Mathieu Perreault (Anaheim Ducks)
20th Overall: Michael Frolik (Montreal Canadiens)
21st Overall: Cal Clutterbuck (New York Rangers)
22nd Overall: James Reimer (Philadelphia Flyers)
23rd Overall: Leo Komarov (Washington Capitals)
24th Overall: Steve Mason (Buffalo Sabres)
25th Overall: Michal Neuvirth (St. Louis Blues)
26th Overall: Chris Stewart (Calgary Flames)
27th Overall: Andrew MacDonald (Dallas Stars)
28th Overall: Viktor Stalberg (Ottawa Senators)

With their original selection off the board in Foligno, the Senators instead wind up with Stalberg, a speedy winger who winds up going a lot higher than his original draft slot (161st overall to Toronto).

It took a little while for Stalberg to make it to Toronto as he spent three years at Vermont after being drafted before turning pro.  He made an impact with the Maple Leafs fairly quickly, splitting the season between the NHL and AHL in his rookie year.  However, that was his only year with the team as they moved him to Chicago as part of a five-player deal that saw them land winger Kris Versteeg.

The 32-year-old spent parts of three seasons with the Blackhawks with some mixed results.  Although he had a 22-goal season in that time, he was more of a complementary piece and as a result, he was allowed to walk in free agency in 2013 just weeks after Chicago won the Stanley Cup.

Nashville believed that Stalberg could become more of a consistent contributor and as a result, they inked him to a four-year, $10MM deal that summer.  It didn’t happen.  By the second year of his deal, he had cleared waivers and spent a big chunk of the year with Milwaukee of the AHL.  In the 2015 summer, the Predators bought him out; he remains on their books this season with a cap hit that’s just over $1.16MM.

He joined the Rangers that offseason and spent one year with the team before moving onto Carolina in free agency the following year.  His time with the Hurricanes was short-lived as he was dealt at the trade deadline to Ottawa in February of 2017.

After being unable to land a contract that summer, Stalberg signed with EV Zug of the Swiss NLA and was quite productive last year with 50 points in 46 games which tied for second in league scoring.  He remained with them to start this season but transferred to Omsk of the KHL in late October.

Stalberg will once again be a free agent this summer and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to land an NHL deal one more time.  If that doesn’t happen, he’ll wrap up his NHL playing days with 168 points in 488 games which is pretty good for a player selected in the sixth round.

We move to the twenty-ninth pick which was held by Phoenix.  After landing Peter Mueller with the eighth pick, they looked to the back end and selected Chris Summers.  That pick hasn’t panned out particularly well as the blueliner has spent the majority of his professional career at the minor league level.  They’ll wind up with a better player in our redraft but who should they take? Have your say by voting in the poll below.

Mobile users, click here to vote.

2006 NHL Draft Take Two: Twenty-Eighth Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Our look back at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is now in full swing as we poll the PHR community to see who would have been selected in the first round and in what order knowing what we know now. Through the first 21 picks, we’ve already seen potential Hall of Fame players switch teams, and multiple captains move up and down the draft board.

Here are the results of the redraft so far:

1st Overall: Jonathan Toews (St. Louis Blues)
2nd Overall: Claude Giroux (Pittsburgh Penguins)
3rd Overall: Nicklas Backstrom (Chicago Blackhawks)
4th Overall: Brad Marchand (Washington Capitals)
5th Overall: Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins)
6th Overall: Jordan Staal (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Milan Lucic (New York Islanders)
8th Overall: Kyle Okposo (Phoenix Coyotes)
9th Overall: Erik Johnson (Minnesota Wild)
10th Overall: Derick Brassard (Florida Panthers)
11th Overall: Bryan Little (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Nick Foligno (Atlanta Thrashers)
13th Overall: Semyon Varlamov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
14th Overall: Artem Anisimov (Vancouver Canucks)
15th Overall: Michael Grabner (Tampa Bay Lightning)
16th Overall: Patrik Berglund (San Jose Sharks)
17th Overall: Jeff Petry (Los Angeles Kings)
18th Overall: Jonathan Bernier (Colorado Avalanche)
19th Overall: Mathieu Perreault (Anaheim Ducks)
20th Overall: Michael Frolik (Montreal Canadiens)
21st Overall: Cal Clutterbuck (New York Rangers)
22nd Overall: James Reimer (Philadelphia Flyers)
23rd Overall: Leo Komarov (Washington Capitals)
24th Overall: Steve Mason (Buffalo Sabres)
25th Overall: Michal Neuvirth (St. Louis Blues)
26th Overall: Chris Stewart (Calgary Flames)
27th Overall: Andrew MacDonald (Dallas Stars)

After taking Ivan Vishnevskiy with their actual pick. the Stars wind up with a better fit on the back end in MacDonald, who jumped up 133 spots from his actual selection.

It took until 2010-11 for MacDonald to make it to the NHL on a full-time basis with the Islanders where he showed some offensive upside early, recording 27 points in his rookie campaign.  That remains his career-high to this date.  He remained with the Isles until March of 2014 when he was flipped to the Flyers for a pair of draft picks, one of which was later flipped to Boston as part of the deal that brought them Johnny Boychuk.

At the time of the trade, MacDonald was logging over 25 minutes a night and his ice time stayed rather high after joining Philadelphia.  As it looked like he was going to be a key shutdown defender for the foreseeable future, the Flyers inked him to a six-year, $30MM contract extension less than six weeks after the trade, a move that hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped.

He has spent considerable time as a healthy scratch in each of the last five seasons and even cleared waivers in the 2015-16 campaign which saw him suit up in his first minor league games since 2009-10.  All in all, he has played in 251 games with the Flyers since the trade but has been more of a complementary player than a core one.  Suffice it to say, the contract – which runs through next season – hasn’t worked out as well as they hoped for.

That said, MacDonald has still carved out a pretty good career for himself considering he was initially a sixth-round pick.  It’s unlikely he’ll remain in Philadelphia when his contract expires and given that the league is trending away from stay-at-home players in favor of strong skaters, it will be interesting to see what type of market he has in the 2020 offseason.

We move to the twenty-eighth pick which was held by Ottawa.  They made a very good pick with their original selection, landing wigner Nick Foligno who has played the sixth-most games of anyone in this draft class.  He went twelfth overall in this redraft so the Senators will wind up with someone else this time around.  Who should they take? Have your say by voting in the poll below.

Mobile users, click here to vote.

2006 NHL Draft Take Two: Twenty-Seventh Overall Pick

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Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.

Our look back at the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is now in full swing as we poll the PHR community to see who would have been selected in the first round and in what order knowing what we know now. Through the first 21 picks, we’ve already seen potential Hall of Fame players switch teams, and multiple captains move up and down the draft board.

Here are the results of the redraft so far:

1st Overall: Jonathan Toews (St. Louis Blues)
2nd Overall: Claude Giroux (Pittsburgh Penguins)
3rd Overall: Nicklas Backstrom (Chicago Blackhawks)
4th Overall: Brad Marchand (Washington Capitals)
5th Overall: Phil Kessel (Boston Bruins)
6th Overall: Jordan Staal (Columbus Blue Jackets)
7th Overall: Milan Lucic (New York Islanders)
8th Overall: Kyle Okposo (Phoenix Coyotes)
9th Overall: Erik Johnson (Minnesota Wild)
10th Overall: Derick Brassard (Florida Panthers)
11th Overall: Bryan Little (Los Angeles Kings)
12th Overall: Nick Foligno (Atlanta Thrashers)
13th Overall: Semyon Varlamov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
14th Overall: Artem Anisimov (Vancouver Canucks)
15th Overall: Michael Grabner (Tampa Bay Lightning)
16th Overall: Patrik Berglund (San Jose Sharks)
17th Overall: Jeff Petry (Los Angeles Kings)
18th Overall: Jonathan Bernier (Colorado Avalanche)
19th Overall: Mathieu Perreault (Anaheim Ducks)
20th Overall: Michael Frolik (Montreal Canadiens)
21st Overall: Cal Clutterbuck (New York Rangers)
22nd Overall: James Reimer (Philadelphia Flyers)
23rd Overall: Leo Komarov (Washington Capitals)
24th Overall: Steve Mason (Buffalo Sabres)
25th Overall: Michal Neuvirth (St. Louis Blues)
26th Overall: Chris Stewart (Calgary Flames)

Stewart winds up dropping eight spots from his original selection but still managed to remain in the first round.  He looked to have considerable promise following his sophomore NHL season in 2009-10 where he potted 28 goals and 36 assists in 77 games with Colorado.  That, along with a solid start the following season, was enough to help convince St. Louis to part with young blueliner Erik Johnson, who was the number one pick back in 2006; the Blues also added Kevin Shattenkirk in that trade.

Although Stewart finished up the 2010-11 campaign strong, things started to go downhill for him after that.  He became more of a secondary scorer with St. Louis and at the trade deadline in 2014, he was flipped to Buffalo as part of a deal that the Blues pick up goaltender Ryan Miller in an effort to shore up their goaltending.

Stewart’s stay with Buffalo didn’t last too long as at the trade deadline one year later, he was moved to Minnesota for a second-round pick although his stay there was even shorter.  In the summer of 2015, he left the Wild to sign in Anaheim but after struggling with the Ducks, he went back to Minnesota in free agency one year later.  Last season, the Wild opted to place him on waivers late in the year where he coincidentally wound up with Calgary.

Stewart was unable to land an NHL contract over the summer and opted to sign with Slovan Bratislava of the KHL in September.  However, before he had even played a game, he decided to head back across the pond and signed with Hamilton of the ACH where he has played once so far this season.

As things stand, Stewart sits fourteenth overall in points from this draft class with 321 (160-161) in 652 games.  It’s still possible he could add to that total if he can catch on with another team down the road but given his declining speed and the fact he couldn’t get a deal this summer, that’s far from a guarantee.

We now move to the twenty-seventh selection which was held by Dallas.  They initially selected defenseman Ivan Vishnevskiy, a productive player at the junior level but saw limited NHL success.  He played in just five games with Dallas and has been in the KHL since the conclusion of his entry-level contract.

As a result, the Stars are set to wind up with a better player with this selection than their original one. Who should they take? Have your say by voting in the poll below.

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