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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
New York Islanders 23.09% (263 votes)
Chicago Blackhawks 18.88% (215 votes)
Los Angeles Kings 9.66% (110 votes)
None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 8.96% (102 votes)
Columbus Blue Jackets 7.73% (88 votes)
Calgary Flames 6.41% (73 votes)
New Jersey Devils 5.62% (64 votes)
New York Rangers 4.39% (50 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 3.69% (42 votes)
Vancouver Canucks 3.69% (42 votes)
Buffalo Sabres 2.19% (25 votes)
San Jose Sharks 1.58% (18 votes)
Detroit Red Wings 1.49% (17 votes)
Nashville Predators 1.23% (14 votes)
Anaheim Ducks 0.79% (9 votes)
Ottawa Senators 0.61% (7 votes)
Total Votes: 1,139

[mobile users click here to vote]

Jacob Trouba Out 4-6 Weeks

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The New York Rangers have announced that defenseman Jacob Trouba will be out four to six weeks with an upper-body injury. Head coach David Quinn later told reporters including Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press that Trouba broke his thumb. In a condensed schedule, that means he’ll miss a huge chunk of the season.

Trouba, 26, may never get back to the 50-point defenseman he was in 2018-19, but he is still one of the most important players on the Rangers team, logging huge minutes in all situations. Overshadowed at times this season by younger players like Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller, there’s something to be said about averaging nearly 22 minutes a night and doing it quietly.

Without him, the Rangers blueline suddenly looks rather inexperienced, unless you believe Jack Johnson can find his way to becoming a capable defender again.

It wasn’t all bad news today though, as Dan Rosen of NHL.com reports that both Artemi Panarin and Miller were practicing with the team. If the Rangers are to turn the season around (a tough task without Trouba for the next month), they’ll need those two playing at their best.

Jack Johnson Could Resume Skating This Week, K'Andre Miller Day-To-Day

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  • The Rangers could soon be getting defenseman Jack Johnson back in their lineup. Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that the veteran, who has missed the last three weeks with a groin injury, could resume practicing at some point this week.  Meanwhile, fellow blueliner K’Andre Miller missed practice today with an upper-body injury and is questionable for Tuesday’s contest against New Jersey.  The rookie has made an immediate impact this season and has four points in 13 games while averaging 19:34 per game, second-most among all first-year players.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/15/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. While the league is still waiting for a report from the Edmonton Oilers, here are today’s results for the other 30 teams:

Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Hunter Miska*
Edmonton – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: John Hayden, Arizona Coyotes; Tobias Rieder, Buffalo Sabres; Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild; Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils

Many of today’s CPRA removals were revealed long before the list was published this afternoon. Hayden was in the lineup for Coyotes for their matinee match-up with the Blues, while Bastian joined the Devils in their return to practice this morning and Rieder did the same with the Sabres. Interestingly, McCabe and Montour were also participants in Buffalo practice today, likely indicating that they will come off the list tomorrow. New Jersey’s Gusev and Kulikov skated separately with coaches after practice today, possibly implying that they too will be off the list soon.

After being late to report yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche are responsible for the only CPRA addition today in young goaltender Miska. Otherwise, this is another positive day as the NHL’s COVID numbers continue to trend strongly in the right direction. With the difficult situations in Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Jersey looking like they will soon be resolved, some progress in Philadelphia is seemingly the only thing stopping the league moving on from their recent rash of postponements and lengthy CRPA lists.

 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/14/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. The league is still awaiting updated lists from the Sabres and Avalanche, but the following are the complete results from the other 29 teams:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel*
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres; Calvin Pickard, Detroit Red Wings; Blake Lizotte, Los Angeles Kings; Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils; Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers; Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s another strong net positive day for the CPRA. The only true addition to the list comes in the form of Flyers forward Konecny. The other addition, Dzingel, has entered the required quarantine period for any player crossing into Canada after he was dealt to Ottawa by Carolina on Saturday, but by all accounts has not qualified for any other reason. Meanwhile, the Red Wings and Lightning wipe the slate clean while the Devils take a major step forward with eight players coming off the list. Joining Dahlin back at Sabres practice today was also head coach Ralph Krueger, a welcome sight after his own bout with Coronavirus.

While the situations in Buffalo and Colorado remain undetermined at this point, the Devils appear to be on the mend and Minnesota Wild head coach Dean Evason stated that he expects some of his players to begin coming off the list soon as well. If the situation in Philadelphia can be sorted out – especially with their Lake Tahoe game coming up next weekend – the NHL could be looking at a refreshingly short CPRA by this time next week.

 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/13/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. On a positive note, no new players have been put on the list, but quite a few have been removed from the list. The Los Angeles Kings list is being put together now, but there has been a report from John Hoven that both Blake Lizotte and Andreas Athanasiou are both off the list:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard
Los Angeles – TBA
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dmitry Kulikov, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Taylor Hall (Sabres), Ryan Carpenter (Chicago), Andreas Johnsson (Devils), Janne Kuokkanen (Devils), Michael McLeod (Devils), Kyle Palmieri (Devils), Pavel Zacha (Devils); Anthony Duclair (Panthers), Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers), , Marcus Johansson (Wild), Jared Spurgeon (Wild), Joel Eriksson Ek (Wild), Nick Bjugstad (Wild)

NHL Postpones Another Philadelphia Flyers Game

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The NHL has announced another postponement, this time for the Philadelphia Flyers and New York Rangers. The game between the two teams scheduled for February 14 has been postponed because of the Flyers currently in the COVID Protocol.

The league expects the Flyers will be able to re-open their facilities for practice on Monday, February 15. The Rangers meanwhile will now have a break over the weekend after playing the Boston Bruins on Friday night. Three Flyers players are currently listed on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list: Travis Sanheim, Claude Giroux and Justin Braun.

The list of postponements continues to grow with each passing day.

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Flames Notes: Gaudreau, Bennett, Ryan

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After a dismal 2019-20 campaign in which he posted a career-low in points and took a step back even on a per-game basis, Calgary Flames star forward Johnny Gaudreau looks like his old self early on this season. Gaudreau recorded a point in each of the Flames’ first nine games and has six goals and eleven points total through ten games. With Gaudreau’s elite production back, last year’s trade rumors have all but dried up, writes Sportsnet’s Ryan Dixon. Even at a 68-point full-year pace last season, Gaudreau’s $6.75MM AAV contract was a value. However, there was considerable discussion about moving him in the case of his scoring touch continuing to fall off over the remainder of the contract. There was also a lot made of Gaudreau’s connection to the Philadelphia Flyers, his favorite team while growing up in New Jersey, and whether he simply desired a move out of Calgary. However, now that he is back to point-per-game scoring, there seems little chance that Gaudreau is going anywhere before his current contract expires after next season. While there are many who will continue to speculate that Gaudreau will leave for Philadelphia as a free agent – Dixon also notes the possible fit with the New Jersey Devils – he appears to be back in good graces with the Flames and their fans and the organization will do all it can to retain the dynamic forward for as long as possible.

  • While the trade rumors are quiet when it comes to Gaudreau, it is the exact opposite for teammate Sam Bennett. Bennett is on the block and while the Flames have said they will take their time with a potential deal, his healthy scratch for the team’s last game somewhat betrays that idea. Whether or not Bennett has formally requested a trade out of Calgary remains unclear, there is seemingly universal agreement that the clock is ticking on the current relationship between he and the Flames. What everyone is not in agreement on however is what the Flames may be looking at in return – or more specifically who. New York Rangers defenseman Anthony DeAngelo is the only trade target rivaling Bennett on the rumor mill right now and it is easy to see how the two teams may be interest in some sort of swap of the two outcasts. Bob McKenzie was the first to report that Calgary was interested in DeAngelo, but this was refuted by Flames beat writer Eric Francis. The pendulum has now swung back the other way, as The New York Post’s Larry Brooks has responded directly to Francis, stating the contrary. Not only does USA Today’s Vincent corroborate Brooks’ side of the story, he adds that the Rangers are also equally interested in Bennett. While the trade is unlikely to be a simple one-for-one due to salary discrepancy, there could be more to a potential Bennett-DeAngelo swap than some may have initially believed. Either way, both players seem destined for new teams sooner rather than later.
  • While head coach Geoff Ward has not yet disclosed his plans for Saturday night’s lineup, per Sportsnet’s Pat Steinberg, he may have no choice but to put Bennett back in. Derek Ryan, who has been invaluable as a bottom-six contributor to the penalty kill and face-off dot so far this year, suffered a finger injury in the Flames’ last game. While the team initially hoped that it was a minor injury and believed Ryan would not miss much time, Ward told the media that Ryan saw a specialist and has been diagnosed with a fracture. Depending on the location and severity, a finger fracture can take two-to-eight weeks to heal. There is currently no timeline for his return and someone will need to take his place in the starting lineup for the time being. Bennett, who is capable of playing a physical, energy role, is the best candidate, so if he is scratched again it will only serve to strengthen the argument that the Flames are protecting their trade asset for a forthcoming deal.

Rangers Not Among Teams Interested In Vince Dunn

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  • While there are several teams believed to be interested in Blues defenseman Vince Dunn, the Rangers are not among them, reports Larry Brooks of the New York Post. New York certainly has a need on their back end – particularly on the offensive side of things – following the dismissal of Anthony DeAngelo but for now at least, they’re staying away.  St. Louis is seeking a first-round pick for Dunn who is making an affordable $1.875MM this season but will be a restricted free agent again this summer and will have arbitration eligibility this time around.

Trade Rumors: Bennett, DeAngelo, Stepan

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As if there weren’t enough whispers surrounding Calgary Flames forward Sam Bennett, his healthy scratch last night did not help. The news emerged well ahead of the Flames’ game on Thursday that Bennett would not play and TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that speculation swelled across the league that this implied Bennett was available for trade. Bennett’s play has improved of late and the player himself even told the media that the scratch came as a surprise. However, with Bennett wanting out of Calgary – though he would not confirm a formal trade request – perhaps the Flames want to look at other internal options who could take Bennett’s place, as well as protect the health of their trade asset. With that said, Dreger warns not to get too excited. He says a trade is certainly not imminent, which harkens back to the Flames own admission that they would not rush to trade Bennett and may not move him at all if they cannot find the right deal.

  • As for the possibility of a trade involving Bennett and another player on the block, New York Rangers defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, there are mixed reports. On Wednesday, Bob McKenzie reported on the NBC Sports broadcast that the Calgary Flames were among four or five teams that had interest in the “reclamation project” that is DeAngelo. A talented, but polarizing player, DeAngelo could be of interest to any number of teams, so even a Calgary team with good defensive depth would not be a major surprise. However, Sportsnet’s Flames beat writer Eric Francis dispelled the rumors of Calgary interest in DeAngelo. He also reiterated that the team will take their time with a Bennett trade and will not rush into a deal for another player on the rumor mill.
  • The other teams mentioned by McKenzie as kicking the tires on DeAngelo: the Anaheim Ducks, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings. As rebuilding teams, taking a chance on the talent and youth of DeAngelo makes a ton of sense for any of these clubs. Considering that DeAngelo has already cleared waivers as well, Detroit or L.A. could also convince New York to add a draft pick to the trade, while Anaheim may be more interested in the Rangers retaining some of DeAngelo’s $4.8MM salary.
  • Despite an impressive win over the rival Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, the season has not gone as planned so far for the Ottawa Senators. After adding some veterans to the roster this off-season, the team hoped the influx of experience and talent combined with their considerable youth and upside would result in more wins. Thus far, they have the league’s worst record at 2-8-1. As a result, changes could be coming to the roster. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that one major change could be a quick flip of veteran center Derek Stepan. Stepan was acquired right before training camp in a trade with the Arizona Coyotes but has failed to make much of an impact for the Senators. He has just three points and -7 rating through ten games, averaging just two shots per game and on pace for the worst possession numbers of his career. It is believed that Stepan is as unhappy with his role in Ottawa as the Senators are in his production. A separation could be coming soon  since the veteran still has value across the league, especially on an expiring contract. Stepan, 30, is a durable, two-way center who has scored at a 40-point pace or better in each of nine NHL season prior to last year.

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