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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $74,057,810 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Dante Fabbro (one year, $925K)
F Eeli Tolvanen (one year, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Tolvanen: $2.85MM
Fabbro: $850K

Tolvanen has received quite a bit of press over the past two years after posted 19 goals and 36 points in the KHL as an 18-year-old. However, now 21, Tolvanen might be ready for the NHL despite struggling since coming over to North America. The 2017 first-round pick struggled in his first year in the AHL, but looked better in his second year there. However, he was on loan with his old KHL team so far this season and hasn’t been as dominant as that 18-year-old season. So, the question is, will he be ready to take the next step into the NHL lineup? That’s a legitimate possibility or he could find himself on the taxi squad, easing into the league.

Fabbro was also highly-touted coming into last season after spending three years at Boston University. While he held onto the team’s fourth defenseman, he still issues acclimating himself to the NHL. The blueliner scored just five goals and 11 points in 64 games, while averaging 19:01 of ice time. He should continue to improve as the team’s fourth defenseman this year.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Pekka Rinne ($5MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Mikael Granlund ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Erik Haula ($1.75MM, UFA)
F Brad Richardson ($1MM, UFA)
D Jarred Tinordi ($700K, UFA)

While the team is quite balanced in terms of contracts, it does have to figure out its goaltending situation next season. Rinne, who has been the team’s star netminder for years, will be 39 years old at the start of the 2021-22 season and could be done. His 2019-20 season wasn’t particularly impressive with a .895 save percentage in 36 games. Saros does look ready to take the No. 1 spot. The 25-year-old was much more impressive with a .914 save percentage in 40 appearances and should continue to take the bulk of the starts this coming season. Saros should get quite the pay raise for next year, while Rinne’s status is a question mark. Is he ready to retire or could he bounce back and hold on for a few more years?

With forward depth being a big need this season, the Predators brought back Granlund despite his struggles since being acquired from Minnesota at the trade deadline in 2019. He didn’t fare well in his short tenure with the team after the trade and while posting 17 goals last year, Granlund wasn’t the dominant forward that the team thought they traded for when they sent young Kevin Fiala off. With Fiala having an impressive season in Minnesota last year, the team has to hope they can get Granlund back to his 20-goal scoring ways. The team also brought in Haula to help out as a middle-six center. The injury-prone forward had one dominant season in Vegas, but since then is now on his third team, hoping to find his game.

Two Years Remaining

F Filip Forsberg ($6MM, UFA)
D Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Rocco Grimaldi ($2MM, UFA)
F Calle Jarnkrok ($2MM, UFA)
D Mark Borowiecki ($2MM, UFA)
F Nick Cousins ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Matt Benning ($1MM, UFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($750K, RFA)

Many people believe that when Forsberg signed his six-year, $36MM contract back in 2016, that they had a superstar winger on their hands. He was coming off his first 30-goal season, scoring 33 goals and then followed that up with 31 goals the next year. However, those numbers have declined steadily the last few years although minor injuries have been part of that decline. Forsberg scored just 21 goals last season in 63 games and needs to find his game over the next two years if he wants to re-establish himself as one of the top wingers in the game, which at the moment, he isn’t.

Ekholm, on the other hand, continues to be one of the best deals for the next two years. The blueliner averaged more than 23 minutes of ATOI for the fourth straight years and has been a solid impact player for the team, even if his plus/minus dropped into the negative for the first time in years. He could be in line for a big extension similar to what Ellis received recently.

Jarnkrok continues to put up decent middle-six numbers after scoring 15 goals last season. He has two years left on the six-year, $12MM pact he signed in 2016. The Predators have quite a few depth players on two-year deals as well, including Grimaldi, Trenin and newly signed Cousins as well as defensemen Borowiecki and Benning. The hope is this depth should help solidify the team’s bottom-six, which struggled last season.

Three Years Remaining

None

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Yannick Weber Signs PTO With Nashville Predators

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When the Nashville Predators released their training camp roster on Saturday, there was a familiar yet surprising name included on the list. Veteran defenseman Yannick Weber, who has donned a Nashville sweater for the past four years, will be back with the team in camp. However, it will not be in a contractual capacity for the season. The free agent defender will compete for a roster spot and thereby an extension while playing on a PTO agreement.

Weber, 32, is another example of a solid veteran player who has been left without options by this off-season’s flat cap market. While Weber is no offensive dynamo, he has built a long NHL career off of being a sound, reliable defensive player who works especially well as a plug-and-play depth option. Although some may not think of Weber as a surefire starter, he has quietly played in over 70% of Nashville’s games over the past four years as a regular in one of the league’s best defense corps. Weber has at least earned the right to prove he can still be an effective player and Nashville knows better than anyone that he is worth a look.

The problem though is that the Predators have all but replaced Weber’s role this off-season. The team re-hauled its bottom pair in free agency with the additions of Mark Borowiecki and Matt Benning, two similar defensive-minded blue liners. The team also has promising prospect Jeremy Davies waiting in the wings and an already-large group of experienced depth options in Jarred Tinordi, Ben Harpur, Tyler Lewington, and Alexandre Carrier. Weber is arguably a better option than many of these players but he is unlikely to unseat Borowiecki and Benning as a starter and would likely battle Tinordi or Davies to be the next man up as well. While the taxi squad offers some expanded opportunities for depth this season and could be an ideal spot for Weber, his PTO does not necessarily imply that a contract is eventually guaranteed.

 

Nashville Predators Recall Three From European Loans

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The Nashville Predators have recalled Eeli Tolvanen, Yakov Trenin, and Connor Ingram from their overseas loans, with training camp set to start in a few days.

Tolvanen, 21, had been playing with Jokerit in the KHL once again, this time scoring 13 points in 25 games. That’s a much slower pace than he set in 2017-18 when he was the talk of the hockey world, tallying 25 goals and 43 points in 60 total games with the Finnish club. Given how, for lack of a better term, average his two seasons in North America have gone since, the depressed offensive totals this year are a little bit concerning. Still, the Predators have a lot of faith in the 2017 first-round pick and he should receive another shot at making the NHL squad.

Trenin, 23, is one of the players he might have to beat out, though he doesn’t play the same type of game. The 2015 second-round pick worked his way through several years in the minor leagues with the Milwaukee Admirals before making his NHL debut in 2019-20, suiting up 21 times for Nashville. He’s been playing with SKA St. Petersburg this season, where he has seven points in 21 games. Unlike Tolvanen however, Trenin is not waiver-exempt any longer and would need to clear to even head to the taxi squad, perhaps giving him a leg up for the roster competition.

Ingram, 23, is one of the league’s more intriguing goaltending prospects. Despite dominating at almost every level so far, he mysteriously flamed out of the Tampa Bay Lightning organization and was sent to the Predators for a 2021 seventh-round pick (in 2019 mind you). He was one of the best goaltenders in the AHL once again last season, posting a 21-5-5 record and a .933 save percentage, leading to a three-year contract extension in March. Ingram has been playing in the Swedish second tier, but will likely be the starter for Milwaukee again as he is still waiver-exempt.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and are firmly in the holiday season. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Predators most thankful for? 

A depressed free agent market.

When the offseason began, it seemed clear that the Predators would be saying goodbye to Mikael Granlund, one of the best forwards available. The team grabbed a few depth players like Brad Richardson, Nick Cousins, and Mark Borowiecki, but looked like they would be mostly relying on internal growth for any improvement next season. Instead, over the last few weeks, the team has been able to re-sign Granlund and add Erik Haula for a grand total of $5.5MM. The no-risk one-year deals are excellent assets for the club whether they have success or not this season. The fact that both players will be motivated to improve their stock is even better.

Who are the Predators most thankful for?

Mattias Ekholm.

A year ago, when he was still earning just $4MM per season, this answer was easily Roman Josi. The Predators captain had one of the most team-friendly deals in the entire league, but that has now disappeared as Josi will carry a cap hit just over $9MM through 2027-28. Sure, he’s still one of the best two-way defensemen in the league and just took home the Norris Trophy after an incredible season, but the excess value he provides has now been slashed dramatically, if not removed entirely.

Ryan Ellis may still provide some with his $6.25MM hit, but it’s Ekholm that really makes the Predators’ cap work at this point. The 30-year-old defenseman will earn just $3.75MM for each of the next two seasons despite still being an upper-echelon option on the back end. Ekholm recorded 33 points in 68 games last season, an 82-game pace that would have given him a shot at his second straight 40+ point season to go along with strong play in his own end. There isn’t a team in the league who wouldn’t take him at his current price, especially given the deal will expire just after he turns 32 and the decline phase really kicks in. Whether the Predators decide to extend Ekholm is a decision for down the line, but right now his might be the most important contract on the books.

What would the Predators be even more thankful for?

A few more goals from the top of the roster.

13 goals. 14 goals. 15 goals. Those are the 2019-20 totals for Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, three players that need to be better for the Predators this season. The first two are both carrying long-term cap hits of $8MM per season, making them some of the most expensive forwards in the entire league. 27 goals and 78 points between them is unacceptable and must change for the team to have any real chance of competing for a Stanley Cup. Arvidsson on the other hand is a bit cheaper at $4.25MM, but that’s what made him so valuable in the past when he was posting goal totals of 31, 29, and 34 (in just 58 games!) prior to last year. Now 27, Arvidsson’s return to the 30-goal mark would be a huge boost in Nashville’s quest for a playoff spot in the new Central Division.

What should be on the Predators’ holiday wish list?

Another depth defenseman.

Honestly, even with the top three soaking up so many minutes and Dante Fabbro taking many of the rest, there should be some concern in Nashville about the Predators’ defensive depth. Borowiecki is a beloved teammate and a warrior on the penalty kill, but he’s proven before that he can’t step into a top-four role with any sort of real effectiveness. Matt Benning and Jarred Tinordi don’t offer much upside either, meaning the Predators are just one injury (or, in today’s world, illness) away from having a problem.

There are still some names on the free agent market that could help. Even beyond Sami Vatanen and Travis Hamonic, who seem unlikely fits for one reason or another, veterans like Ron Hainsey or Ben Hutton could make sense. There are certainly others on the trade market that could be acquired, depending on price, but the Predators are toeing a thin line with the group they have right now, even if it is loaded at the top.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Three Players Clear Waivers

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December 30: All three players have cleared waivers.

December 29: Another day, another minor league forward on waivers. The Columbus Blue Jackets have placed Calvin Thurkauf on waivers for the purpose of a loan to EV Zug in Switzerland for the remainder of the 2020-21 season. Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that Michael Carcone and Frederic Allard of the Nashville Predators have also been placed on waivers.

Thurkauf, 23, was a seventh-round pick of the Blue Jackets back in 2016 that slowly worked his way through the minor leagues and made his NHL debut last season. Though he failed to score a point in three games, even making it that far was an impressive accomplishment for the young Swiss forward. This year in 19 games with Zug EV, he has four points and will continue his development overseas should he clear tomorrow.

Carcone, 24, was only just acquired by the Predators earlier this month in a minor trade with the Ottawa Senators. The career minor leaguer had 27 points in 59 games with the Belleville Senators last season and is likely ticketed for the Milwaukee Admirals whenever the AHL season gets underway.

Allard meanwhile is already playing in Austria, where he will likely continue should he clear waivers. The 23-year-old defenseman has played three seasons for the Admirals but is still waiting for his first NHL opportunity. A third-round pick from 2016, he has three points in 11 games for EC VSV in the Austrian professional league this season.

Minor Transactions: 12/28/20

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Training camp is just a few days away and things are heating up in the hockey world. With waivers open and rosters being announced, minor transactions will come fast and furious all across the league. We’ll keep track of them right here.

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have released their training camp roster, which will include Jordan Nolan as reported earlier this month. The veteran forward signed an AHL deal with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins but will attend camp on a PTO trying to earn an NHL contract. Nolan, who last played in the NHL during the 2018-19 season, scored 27 points for the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL last year.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have also released their camp roster, which will not include Casey Nelson. The team has confirmed that Nelson has opted out of the upcoming season. The team also has a few extra spots open, likely leaving room for World Junior players like Dylan Cozens to join after their tournament ends.
  • The Nashville Predators have recalled five players from the ECHL’s Florida Everblades. Patrick Harper, Tanner Jeannot, Tommy Novak, Cole Smith, and Josh Wilkins have all been brought back up, presumably to attend the Predators training camp in the coming days. The quintet, who are all signed to NHL deals, helped the Everblades get off to an easy 5-0 start this season, outscoring their competition 25-7.
  • Previously reported professional tryouts for Scott Darling and Kevin Connauton with the Florida Panthers have been confirmed. Both will attend training camp in an attempt to land an NHL contract with the team. The Panthers of course were actually the team to execute a buyout on Darling’s last contract after a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes, which means he’s already on their books for around $1.2MM for the upcoming season. That number won’t go anywhere, even if he does sign a new deal with the team.
  • T.J. Brennan hasn’t played in an NHL game since 2015-16, but he has managed to land an NHL contract in each of the four seasons since then. That streak has come to an end now though. Swiss club HC Thurgau has announced a one-year deal with Brennan, a major move for a club whose defense has been thinned by injury. The accomplished AHLer should immediately become one of the top players for Thurgau, who plays in the second tier Swiss League.
  •  After just one full year in the NHL on his entry-level contract, forward Ryan Kuffner is making the move overseas. The Princeton product has signed with ERC Ingolstadt of Germany’s DEL, the club announced. Kuffner joins a team that rosters several other familiar AHL veterans and the young forward should be a good fit. Whether he produces at a level that warrants a second look in the NHL however remains to be seen.

Nashville Predators Sign Erik Haula

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It’s not only Mikael Granlund that is heading to Nashville today. The Predators have also signed Erik Haula according to several reports including Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic. The deal will pay Haula $1.75MM for the 2020-21 season.

Haula, 29, joins a crowded room in Nashville for the upcoming season. The team had already added Nick Cousins, Luke Kunin, and Brad Richardson this offseason and now will be bringing back Granlund, meaning there are certainly more than 12 NHL forwards vying for spots. In Haula, arguably the best center on the market, the Predators are securing a bottom-six option that has shown an ability to move up in the lineup in the past.

During the magical 2017-18 season with the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, he scored 29 goals and 55 points in 76 games. That was followed by an unfortunate injury early in the 2018-19 campaign that limited him to just 15 regular season games and then a disappointing 2019-20 campaign. Haula played 41 games for the Carolina Hurricanes and registered 12 goals and 22 points before a trade took him to Florida for a handful of matches.

Now in Nashville, it’s unclear exactly what role he’ll be asked to fill, but for $1.75MM it doesn’t really matter. The Predators are taking a swing with a bargain-basement contract for a player who was being squeezed out of the market and could win big if he returns to that 2017 level. If he performs like he did last year, he’s still likely worth the money as a checking depth option.

With Granlund and Haula signed, all eyes will now turn to Mike Hoffman and his continued unemployment. There’s no doubt that he’s the best forward left on the market, though there are still some interesting names like Andreas Athanasiou out there. The market is obviously picking up now that the season is a go, with more signings to come in the next few days and weeks.

Nashville Predators Sign Mikael Granlund

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Dec 23: The Predators have officially announced the one-year contract, confirming the $3.75MM salary.

Dec 22: It turns out that Mikael Granlund’s time with Nashville may not be coming to an end after all. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that the forward will return to the Predators on a one-year contract worth around $3.75MM.  He was rated ninth on our Top 50 UFA list back in October.

Last season was a tale of two campaigns for the 28-year-old.  After tallying just six goals in 36 games under former head coach Peter Laviolette, he performed much better under new bench boss John Hynes, picking up 11 tallies in 27 games to lead the team in that span while seeing his ice time jump to over 19 minutes per night.  Nevertheless, putting up just 30 points in 63 games last season didn’t send him into free agency on a high note considering his point per game average was the lowest of any of his seven full NHL campaigns.

While he’s certainly coming off of a down season, Granlund is only two years removed from back-to-back 20-plus goal/65-plus point seasons and at his age, it’s quite possible that he could get back to those numbers in the right environment.  Given his success and role under Hynes, there’s some cause for optimism that his output should improve in 2021.

Even if it doesn’t, this is a low-risk proposition for the Preds.  They’ll get another opportunity with a player they paid a fairly high price for (Kevin Fiala) and will do so at a considerably cheaper rate than his previous deal which carried a $5.75MM AAV.  While Nashville’s depth players have changed considerably, the core of the team remains intact from last season so Granlund should have an opportunity to reprise his top-six role and will hope for a better year that will bolster his opportunities on the open market next summer.

GM David Poile still has some work to do this offseason with RFA Luke Kunin (who was acquired back at the draft) still in need of a new deal.  Even if Granlund signs at this price tag, they’ll have a little more than $9MM in cap room at their disposal so there is still a chance that Nashville adds to their roster in the days leading up to the start of training camp next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ottawa Senators, Nashville Predators Complete Minor Trade

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The Ottawa Senators have acquired Zach Magwood from the Nashville Predators in exchange for Michael Carcone, swapping minor league forwards before training camp opens. Both players are in the last year of their respective two-way contracts.

Magwood, 22, went undrafted out of the OHL but signed a three-year entry-level contract with the Predators in 2018. After spending most of the 2018-19 season with the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL, he was sent down to the ECHL for much of last season. At the lower level, Magwood dominated, scoring 47 points in 51 games for the Florida Everblades. He’ll now have to fight for a spot with the Belleville Senators if he wants to stay in the AHL this time around.

Carcone meanwhile is also an undrafted signing, though his professional career so far has been a tumultuous ride. Originally signed by the Vancouver Canucks in 2016, this is now Carcone’s third time being traded. The Canucks originally sent him to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a 2018 trade for Josh Leivo and then he was included in the Cody Ceci–Connor Brown swap last year between Toronto and Ottawa. A solid AHL performer, he had 27 points in 59 games for Belleville last year but has still not made it to the NHL.

Neither player figures into the NHL plans for this year, though Carcone does have quite a bit more experience at the AHL level.

Arizona Coyotes Expected To Hire Cory Stillman

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Dec 15: The Coyotes have officially announced the hiring, bringing Stillman in as an assistant coach. In the release, GM Bill Armstrong explains just why they believe Stillman can help the team:

We are very pleased to have Cory join Rick Tocchet’s coaching staff. Cory was a great player who won back to back Stanley Cups during his career. He is a very good coach who has a strong work ethic and a passion for the game. I’m confident that our players and staff will benefit from his knowledge, insight and expertise.

Dec 14: The Arizona Coyotes have rebuilt the front office and are about to add to their coaching staff as well, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Cory Stillman is expected to be hired as an assistant coach, leaving his job with the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL where he served as head coach the last two seasons.

Stillman, 46, had previously worked with the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes, serving as director of player development with the latter. As Jeff Marek of Sportsnet points out on Twitter, a move like this comes at an interesting time, given that Stillman coaches his draft-eligible son with the Wolves.

Of course, there is more than just a few years of OHL experience in Stillman, who played more than 1,000 games in the NHL and won the Stanley Cup twice. A member of the hall-0f-very-good, Stillman managed to rack up 727 points in the regular season and even hit the 80-point mark in 2003-04. He has another son, Riley Stillman, who is an NHL player in his own right, playing 34 games this season for the Panthers.

In Arizona, Rick Tocchet remains head coach after managing to lead the club past the Nashville Predators in this summer’s qualification round. While the Coyotes went out with a whimper against the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche, Tocchet has been reasonably successful, posting winning records with Arizona the past two seasons.

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