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Poll: Grading The Viktor Arvidsson Trade

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The Los Angeles Kings made their first big splash of the summer yesterday, acquiring forward Viktor Arvidsson from the Nashville Predators in exchange for the 40th overall selection in this year’s draft and a 2022 third-round pick.

The deal came after two consecutive seasons where Arvidsson has come up short of expectations, with just 25 goals and 52 points over 107 combined games. That’s a big step backward for the player who racked up 34 tallies in just 58 games during the 2018-19 season, or the one that had posted back-to-back 61-point seasons the two years prior. Arvidsson has also failed to ever play in every scheduled game for the Predators, dealing with various minor injuries throughout the last several years.

Still, there’s lots of upside to the 28-year-old forward, something the Kings can take a chance on next season. Los Angeles has amassed one of the most impressive prospect groups in the NHL and didn’t have to forfeit a single one to land the talented winger. In fact, they still own a draft pick in each of the rounds they gave up, thanks to previous trades for Alec Martinez and Jeff Carter. There was an opportunity to add an established forward without drastically affecting the Kings future, and they took it.

Was Arvidsson the right choice though? That same draft capital could have been used to land someone else, and it’s not like he has provided much excess value on his $4.25MM deal the past two seasons. He immediately becomes the Kings’ third-highest paid forward and will contribute to a bit of a financial squeeze in the coming years. Even though Los Angeles has shed some of their highest-priced assets in recent years, they still have nearly $27MM tied up in the trio of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick. As younger players start reaching restricted (or unrestricted, in the case of Calvin Petersen) free agency, they’ll need raises to keep them in the organization. Adding a $4.25MM hit doesn’t come without some risk in that regard, though if Arvidsson bounces back it won’t be much of an issue.

For Nashville, moving Arvidsson not only cleared a bit of cap, but also helped their expansion situation. Should the team decide to go the eight-skater protection route in order to keep all of their talented defensemen, the forward list is down to just a few names. Moving Arvidsson for some draft capital now allows them to protect someone else, a little extra value that should be taken into account when assessing the trade.

Filip Forsberg certainly didn’t like the deal, but how do you think each team did? Cast your vote for each side below and make sure to explain your thoughts in the comments.

[Links for mobile/app users: Predators, Kings]

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Los Angeles Kings Acquire Viktor Arvidsson

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The NHL trade market has been slow to this point, with many teams wary of making big moves that could upset their plans ahead of the Expansion Draft later this month.  However, a move was made today as Nashville announced that they have dealt scoring winger Viktor Arvidsson to Los Angeles. The Predators will receive L.A.’s 2021 second-round pick, No. 40 overall, and a 2022 third-round pick. Though the deal may lack excitement with none of the Kings’ high profile prospects going the other way, it is a solid return for Nashville, who need to restock their system. According to The Athletic’s draft pick value chart, the Kings’ second-rounder this year plus a presumptive top-half third-rounder next year is equivalent to a late first-round pick.

Arvidsson, 28, has cracked 30 goals and 60 points twice in his six-year NHL career, showing dangerous scoring ability. Even as his numbers have tailed off the past two seasons, he has maintained a half-point per-game scoring mark in all five of his full NHL seasons. It is also worth noting that his 6.6% shooting percentage this season was an extreme deviation from his career average. Positive regression likely means that more goals are on the way. Arvidsson is more than just his scoring totals, too. The undersized, but hard-working wing plays big minutes, contributes to both the power play and penalty kill, and is an excellent possession player.

[Related: Expansion Primers – Los Angeles Kings and Nashville Predators]

With all that said, Nashville was not wrong to be shopping Arvidsson. At times this past season, he seemed too passive and uninvolved. While he has still put up solid top-six numbers, the Predators have been relying on him as a top-line scorer and he has fallen short. It seems that both sides will benefit from this change of scenery. Nashville will certainly benefit from the expansion flexibility, cap space, and draft pick capital as they look to get back into Stanley Cup contender status after some up-and-down years.

As for the Kings, this is exactly what GM Rob Blake and company have promised their veteran core. The team plans to add established talent this year to help take their young team to the next level and to give their long-time centerpieces another chance to win. In a new place with and with a fresh group of teammates, Arvidsson could easily return to elite production. They had draft picks they could afford to move, the Expansion Draft slot to spare, and a desire to win and now they have a capable veteran in the fold as they look to get back into playoff contention.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report that the Kings were acquiring Arvidsson.

Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time around, the Nashville Predators protected eight skaters in the Expansion Draft: Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, P.K. Subban,and Pekka Rinne. Look familiar? With seven of those eight players still on the team and at least five of them again locks for protection, the Predators are likely to take the same approach with Seattle as they did with Vegas.

Four years ago, the result was losing a high-priced veteran in James Neal. However, Neal was coming off consecutive strong seasons in Nashville and the Golden Knights did not hesitate to select the scoring forward. If the Predators want the Kraken to also take a pricey player, they may have to help it along. There are other more attractive and much more affordable options on the roster this time.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Viktor Arvidsson, Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, Rocco Grimaldi, Calle Jarnkrok, Tanner Jeannot, Ryan Johansen, Luke Kunin, Michael McCarron, Rem Pitlick, Anthony Richard, Colton Sissons, Yakov Trenin

Defense:
Frederic Allard, Matt Benning, Mark Borowiecki, Alexandre Carrier, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Dante Fabbro, Ben Harpur, Josh Healey, Roman Josi

Goalies:
Connor Ingram, Juuse Saros

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Mikael Granlund, D Erik Gudbranson, F Erik Haula, F Brad Richardson

Notable Exemptions

F Egor Afansyev, G Yaroslav Askarov, D Jeremy Davies, D David Farrance, F Patrick Harper, F Thomas Novak, F Mathieu Olivier, F Eeli Tolvanen, F Phil Tomasino

Key Decisions

The Predators have no shortage of difficult decisions to make, but it beats the position they were in earlier this season. Off to a horrific start to the 2020-21 season and looking ahead to the Expansion Draft, Nashville had almost everyone on the trade block so that they could protect what few core players and young assets they valued in expansion. Chief among them was Ekholm, whose contract expires at the end of next season. Rather than protect four defensemen – Ekholm, fellow top defenders Josi and Ellis, and young standout Fabbro – and expose a number of forwards, the team was entertaining trading Ekholm so that they could use a 7-3 protection scheme. However, as their season turned around and Ekholm trade talks grew quiet, that possibility slipped away. Whether they plan to re-sign Ekholm or not, the Predators are not giving away any of those four defensemen for free, locking them in to the eight-skater scheme once again.

With their defensive protections locked in, as well as in goal with new starter Saros taking over for free agent and potential retiree Rinne, all of the questions for Nashville are at forward – and there are plenty. The two sure things are Forsberg and Arvidsson. Forsberg is the undisputed best forward on the team and Arvidsson, despite a down year, still has too much value to give up for free and has a team-friendly contract. Beyond that pair, GM David Poile could go in any number of directions with his final two spots. The safe guess for at least one spot though is young winger Kunin. Acquired just last summer, Kunin is young and full of potential. A potential long-term top-six forward in Nashville, Kunin is unlikely to be exposed unless the Predators see something in him that causes them doubt in his upside.

So it could be down to just one forward slot, with at least five names in contention – the downside of the eight-skater protection scheme. The big names are Johansen and Duchene, the Predators’ $8MM centers. The problem is that names is all they are right now; neither has produced up to the expectations of their pedigree in several years. Nashville seems likely to expose both in hopes that Seattle likes one of them enough to take a massive amount of cap off their payroll, which they could better use elsewhere. If one of them was to be protected, it would likely be Johansen who has more history with the team and plays a more complete game, even when he isn’t producing.

With Johansen and Duchene likely crossed off the list, that leaves long-time middle-six forwards Grimaldi, Jarnkrok, and Sissons. Jarnkrok may seem like the obvious choice; he finished second among Nashville forwards in scoring this season while Sissons and Grimaldi were tenth and eleventh, respectively. Jarnkrok also led all forwards in plus/minus and was a key cog in the power play. Jarnkrok was also protected four years ago and is still on the same bargain, $2MM AAV contract he was then. Contracts could be the key here, though. Poile has had an extraordinary ability in his career to sign players to affordable, long-term contracts, such as Jarnkrok. However, Jarnkrok is entering the final season of his long-term deal, while Sissons still has four seasons left at $2.86MM per year. Nashville’s top penalty killing forward and top face-off man is also quietly a good complementary scorer as well, scoring at close to a 30-point 82-game pace over the past four seasons. If Sissons is exposed, the Kraken have plenty of reasons to select him. Would Poile risk letting another team, a Western Conference rival at that, benefit from his negotiating handiwork or will he instead protect Sissons and his affordable contract?

If Nashville was protecting seven forwards, a strong case could be made for 24-year-old Pitlick. One lone NHL game after leaving college in 2019 is the only reason Pitlick is eligible for the Expansion Draft and the team hopes it doesn’t come back to bite them. A star at the University of Minnesota who has been stellar in the AHL through two pro seasons and earned some NHL games this season, Pitlick looks like a future top-nine forward, but the Predators don’t have the luxury of protecting potential with only four forward slots.

Projected Protection List

F Viktor Arvidsson
F Filip Forsberg
F Luke Kunin
F Colton Sissons

D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis
D Dante Fabbro
D Roman Josi

G Juuse Saros

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Nick Cousins, Matt Duchene, Rocco Grimaldi, Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok, Yakov Trenin

Defensemen (2): Matt Benning, Mark Borowiecki

When the Predators signed Benning and Borowiecki to two-year deals last summer, it was with expansion in mind. They knew the pair were serviceable blue liners who could meet exposure requirements with bottom-pair time but also were not flashy enough for Seattle to select. In fact, if the Kraken do take a defenseman it is likely to be Carrier or Allard instead. In net, Ingram is a solid prospect who had a tremendous 2019-20 season, but his poor performance this year and his lack of waiver exemption likely makes him a non-option for Seattle.

Again, the value for the Kraken in likely to come at forward with so many names exposed. Jarnkrok, if exposed, would be affordable top-six scoring right off the bat for the new team. However, the expiring contracts for he, Grimaldi, and Cousins hurt all of their stocks. Pitlick or Trenin would be interesting project picks for Seattle, younger players who have shown flashes of great ability.

However, all eyes will be on Johansen and Duchene – and Kraken GM Ron Francis knows it. Even if he likes one of the two prime centers and even acknowledging that Seattle needs to hit $48.9MM and an $8MM salary would help, Francis also knows that the Predators have plenty of incentive to see either leave. Seattle could ask for an additional player, prospect, or pick in order to take Johansen or Duchene and Nashville will almost certainly comply. Johansen, a Vancouver native who played his junior hockey in Portland, is familiar with the area and could be an immediate fan favorite, the team’s top line center, and a captain candidate, especially if he can return to form. If he also came with another attractive asset or two, it would be a popular move by the team.

Pekka Rinne Wins 2020-21 King Clancy Memorial Trophy

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The NHL kicked off awards season on Monday night with the announcement of this year’s King Clancy Memorial Trophy winner for “leadership qualities on and off the ice” and “noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community.” The 2020-21 recipient is none other than well-respected veteran goaltender Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators, who beats out New Jersey Devils defenseman P.K. Subban and San Jose Sharks forward Kurtis Gabriel for the honor.

A career Predator, Rinne has long been making his presence felt in the Nashville community in many ways. He has been an active member of the Best Buddies program and Make-A-Wish Foundation, has organized events for the Peterson Foundation for Parkinson’s Disease, and stepped up in a major way during the COVID-19 pandemic, participating in the Predators’ “Feed the Frontline” initiative that provided meals to police and firemen and partnering with Chick-Fil-A and Dunkin Donuts to provide food to Nashville doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals. However, Rinne’s greatest contribution to the community has been his leadership of the 365 Pediatric Cancer Fund, raising over $3MM for Monroe Carell Jr. Children’s Hospital at Vanderbilt Medical Center and bringing patients and their families to Bridgestone Arena to enjoy games from the 365 Fund suite, which he personally funds in full. For all he gives to his community, Rinne remains humble:

After spending 15 years with the same organization and in the same city, and with the opportunities I’ve had through local charities in my community – this is very special to me. At the same time, I want to congratulate P.K. and Kurtis on their nomination and for everything they do for their communities. I want to thank the Predators and the Predators Foundation for letting us players get involved and help in our community. I also want to recognize Shea Weber, who helped start the 365 Fund with me. This award means a lot to me and my family, and it’s a huge honor.

Predators General Manager David Poile also had plenty to say about Rinne’s deserving recognition:

I view the King Clancy Memorial Trophy as a lifetime achievement award of sorts, and Pekka winning this year is totally reflective of what he has done on the ice, but equally, if not more importantly, what he’s done off the ice in our community. For years, and for good reason, Pekka has been the face of our franchise and our most popular player. This is shown by the countless hours he’s spent working to make our community a better place and the sacrifices he’s made to make the lives of everyone around him better. Pekka is completely deserving of this honor, and our organization couldn’t be happier for him.

In honor of Rinne’s King Clancy victory, the NHL will donate $25,000 to the 365 Fund, an amount that the Predators have also promised to match. For more on Rinne’s contributions, the Predators provided this great video tribute to his work with kids. An impending free agent nearing the end of his career, if this is the last of Rinne in the NHL, it is a fitting sendoff for the star goalie.

2020-21 King Clancy Trophy Finalists Announced

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The NHL has announced the finalists for the 2021 King Clancy Memorial Trophy, which is presented “to the player who best exemplifies leadership qualities on and off the ice and has made a noteworthy humanitarian contribution in his community.” Last year’s winner was Matt Dumba of the Minnesota Wild.

Each team nominated one player for the award, but the finalists are Kurtis Gabriel of the San Jose Sharks, Pekka Rinne of the Nashville Predators, and P.K. Subban of the New Jersey Devils.

The selection committee, led by Gary Bettman and Bill Daly, consider the following criteria:

  • Clear and measurable positive impact on the community
  • Investment of time and resources
  • Commitment to a particular cause or community
  • Commitment to the League’s community initiatives
  • Creativity of programming
  • Use of influence; engagement of others

Off-Season Notes: Penguins, Oshie, Rinne

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It was another disappointing early playoff exit for the Pittsburgh Penguins but their new front office group, just installed earlier this season, is not looking to blow up the roster. NHL.com’s Wes Crosby writes that Penguins GM Ron Hextall intends to keep his aging core together and to remain in “win-now mode”. That means that contract negotiation talks are underway with center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang. The current deals for the 34-year-old duo expire at the end of next season, but Hextall would like to keep them around and is not currently considering trading either one. “We see a future with this core,” Hextall said. “We’ve got some pretty special players that, they’re obviously not in their 20s anymore, but they’re still playing at a high level.” The GM also expressed his confidence in young goaltender Tristan Jarry and did not label goaltending as an area of concern this off-season. Hextall instead stated that adding size and toughness is his priority this summer.

  • There has been considerable speculation that Washington Capitals forward and Washington (state, that is) native T.J. Oshie could be available to the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Oshie, 34 and signed for four more years, has been stellar for the Capitals, but has still been considered expendable due to his age and contract. Additionally, the idea that the Kraken would leap at the local product as a veteran leader for their new team would mean that Washington does not need to worry about other valuable expected exposures, like young goaltender Vitek Vanecek or defenseman Brenden Dillon. However, in an interview on 106.7 The Fan in D.C., GM Brian MacLellan called it “unlikely” that Oshie will be exposed. MacLellan called Oshie a “big part” of their team, which is not an understatement after this season. In 2020-21, Oshie showed no signs of age catching up to him, scoring goals and recording points at a career pace. Oshie’s 22 goals and 43 points were both top-three marks for the Capitals and had him on a full-season trajectory of 34 goals and 67 points. Oshie also tied for second in the entire league with 13 power play goals. If he can continue to score at this rate, perhaps his lengthy, expensive contract will continue to be worth it through 2024-25, justifying the decision not to make him available in expansion.
  • Although the final days of the Nashville Predators’ regular season certainly implied that we were seeing the end of career Predator and franchise icon Pekka Rinne, the veteran goaltender is not hanging his skate up just yet. In an exit interview with the Nashville communications staff, Rinne states that he has still not made a decision if he will retire or not. Notably, albeit unsurprisingly, is that the only alternative he provides to retirement is re-signing with Nashville. With young Juuse Saros established as the Predators’ current starter and elite prospect Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings, there isn’t a long-term need in net for the Predators. However, one more year with Rinne is certainly not a bad option.

Nashville Predators Sign Juuso Parssinen

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June 1: The Predators have officially announced the deal, confirming the three-year, entry-level contract.

May 29: The Nashville Predators have reportedly come to terms with an upstart forward prospect. Contract resources CapFriendly and PuckPedia both reports that the club and 20-year-old forward prospect Juuso Parssinen have agreed to the required three-year entry-level contract beginning in 2021-22 and carrying a $850,833 cap hit. The alleged contract breakdown is as follows:

  • 2021-22: $750K base salary + $92.5K signing bonus and $82.5K games played bonus
  • 2022-23: $750K base salary + $92.5K signing bonus and $82.5K games played bonus
  • 2022-23: $775K base salary + $92.5K signing bonus and $57.5K games played bonus

Parssinen has improved by leaps and bounds since being selected by the Predators in the seventh round of the 2019 NHL Draft. Picked 210th overall, Parssinen was just eight selections away from going undrafted altogether. However, Nashville has to be glad they used a late-round flier on the Finnish product. Parssinen had played only seven games in the Liiga, Finland’s top pro level, and had recorded just one point when he was selected by the Predators. The following season, that production climbed to 12 points in 31 Liiga games, while Parssinen also enjoyed his best per-game scoring season at the U-20 junior level. And this season? The young center played exclusively in the Liiga to the tune of a whopping 42 points in 55 games, good enough for second on TPS in scoring and even earning him an alternate captain role despite his young age. He also added four points in seven games for Team Finland at the World Junior Championship, holding is own playing with and against elite NHL prospects.

While Parssinen’s scoring progression in Finland is enough to get Predators fans’ attention, they may not want to get too excited. Although Parssinen is now officially under contract, he also just signed a two-year extension with TPS back in February. That could mean that the promising young pivot remains overseas on loan for at least one, if not two years. However, when Parssinen does finally arrive in Nashville he will be that much more polished a player. At about 6’3″ and 200 pounds, there is also little concern about him adjusting to the bigger, stronger, more aggressive North American game.

If a late seventh-round pick with net front presence and leadership ability drafted out of Scandinavia who surprises with his impressive European production sounds familiar to Predators fans, it should. In many ways, Parssinen’s path to this point mirrors that of former Nashville star Patric Hornqvist, the 230th pick in 2005 out of Sweden’s Djurgardens IF. If Parssinen has the chance to even come close to making the impact on the organization that Hornvist did, perhaps it isn’t too early for fans to get excited.

Leksand Interested In Kasimir Kaskisuo

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Predators goaltender Kasimir Kaskisuo has been on an NHL contract for the past five seasons but only has two career appearances at the top level to this point of his career.  As he’s set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer, it appears some international opportunities will be presenting themselves; Leksand (SHL) GM Thomas Johansson told SportExpressen’s Johan Svensson that they are considering going after the 27-year-old for next season.  Kaskisuo was Nashville’s taxi squad goaltender this season and made just a single appearance lasting 15 minutes while not getting any AHL time so at this point, simply going somewhere where he will have a chance to play would certainly be appealing.

Viktor Arvidsson Late Scratch Due To Upper-Body Injury

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  • Predators winger Viktor Arvidsson was a late scratch in their third game against Carolina with the team announcing (Twitter link) that he’s dealing with an upper-body injury. He was fifth in scoring this season for Nashville with 25 points in 50 games and is listed as day-to-day.  Calle Jarnkrok, who missed Game Two with an illness, took Arvidsson’s place in the lineup.

Predators Activate Filip Forsberg, Alexandre Carrier, And Brad Richardson

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  • The Predators are getting some players back in the lineup to aid in their push to secure the final playoff spot in the Central. Adam Vingan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that winger Filip Forsberg, center Brad Richardson, and defenseman Alexandre Carrier have all been activated off IR.  Forsberg has missed more than a month and still sits only two points off the team lead, making him a big addition up front.  Meanwhile, Richardson has been above average at the faceoff dot and should give them another option on the penalty kill while Carrier is fourth among Nashville defenders in ATOI at just over 20 minutes a night.

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