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Central Notes: Faber, Wood, Hemming, Buchinger

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The Wild’s franchise-record extension for rising sophomore defenseman Brock Faber turned some heads yesterday, but general manager Bill Guerin believes the deal is “worth the risk,” he told Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscriber link).

Smith adds that Guerin has acknowledged the league-wide trend of banking on potential core pieces early in their careers, getting the cost certainty that comes with rich, long-term deals compared to bridging players through their prime and then overpaying for their twilight seasons.

“This is a different game now, a different generation, a different way of doing business,” Guerin said. “It’s really important you have to do a lot of work to make sure who you’re identifying as your foundation guys… I’d much rather have a guy Brock’s age on an eight-year deal than a 31-year-old guy. It makes sense. [Faber’s] shown he’s mature enough to handle it.”

More out of the Central Division:

  • As the Predators’ No. 1 forward prospect, winger Matthew Wood is looking to be more efficient at filling out his 6’4″ frame, he tells Robby Stanley of NHL.com. “I feel a lot stronger on my feet. I think I’m starting to use my body a bit better and starting to learn about that. Strength is definitely something I’m working on, and that’s going to take my game to the next level,” Wood said. The 19-year-old is transferring from UConn, where he had 27 goals and 62 points in 70 games over the first two seasons of his collegiate career, to Minnesota for his junior season in 2024-25.
  • The new-look Stars have been built on the back of expert player development, a pattern they’re hoping to repeat with 2024 first-round pick Emil Hemming. Dallas already has the Finnish winger signed to his entry-level contract, and he’ll be closer to the Stars this season by moving from his home country to the Barrie Colts of the Ontario Hockey League. It’s part of an attempt to strike gold yet again and work more directly with the 6’1″, 205-lb forward on developing his all-around game, writes Sean Shapiro of EP Rinkside on his personal blog (subscriber link).
  • In an interview with Matthew DeFranks of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscriber link), Blues defense prospect Michael Buchinger says he’s ready to make the jump to the pros this fall after wrapping up his junior career with the Ontario Hockey League’s Guelph Storm. “I just think making the first decision, not trying to overthink, not trying to make a fancy pass,” Buchinger said. “Obviously at the pro level, everyone’s in that right position. Just understanding the systems and where guys are going to be and making a really quick, smart decision. I think the rest will take care of itself.” The No. 88 pick in 2022 will have his entry-level contract go into effect this year, and he’s expected to start the campaign on assignment to AHL Springfield, where DeFranks notes he should have ample power-play opportunity thanks to roster turnover.

Predators’ Depth Pieces Will Sway Stanley Cup Aspirations

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The Nashville Predators have built a strong case for the most productive summer in the NHL by adding top defenseman Brady Skjei, scoring winger Jonathan Marchessault, and Tampa Bay Lightning legend Steven Stamkos. Each of the trio are set for a pivotal role in Nashville – headlined by the premier-scoring Stamkos’ rounding out of the team’s top line, next to Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg. The moves cost Nashville $20.5MM and could easily be enough to earn them a top-three spot in the Central after picking up a Wild Card spot last season. But the throes of the Toronto Maple Leafs have shown that teams can’t go far on the backs of just a few stars, and even with illustrious spending this summer, Nashville’s run to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup will ultimately sit with a largely unchanged depth.

That depth is most notably led by centerman Thomas Novak, who found consistency in Nashville’s third-line center role last season, after rivaling second-line minutes in 2022-23. The small decrease in ice time didn’t phase him, as Novak managed 18 goals and 45 points in 71 games – career-highs in all three stats, though a slight dip in per-game scoring from two seasons ago. He found a way to stick in the lineup through health and challenge last season – and now gets a chance to break his way into the team’s top six, assuming they choose to use Stamkos as a winger. If so, Novak would likely be flanked by productive wingers Gustav Nyquist and Marchessault, who could both provide a spark to Novak’s methodical style. While Nyquist’s longevity, and Marchessault’s change of scenery, will be notable storylines of their own this season – it will be Novak’s capability as a second-line center that will determine Nashville’s ability to deploy a top-line of superstars.

While Novak is fighting to round out the second line, Nashville’s bottom six will sit as a land of opportunity for a young core that, so far, hasn’t jumped off the page. Each of Cody Glass, Luke Evangelista, and Philip Tomasino have shown promise at the top flight but struggled to carve out a consistent role. Their place in Nashville is quickly being challenged by minor-league risers Juuso Parssinen, Zachary L’Heureux, Joakim Kemell, and Fyodor Svechkov. The quartet stands as the prospects to watch in Nashville’s upcoming training camp and could each vie for a hardy shot at the NHL this fall. Which young forwards win out the competition for ice time will underline the conversation of Nashville’s ‘X-factors’ – especially as Tomasino and Parssinen sit as unsigned restricted free agents. But it will be how the young corps blend with hardened vets like Colton Sissons and Cole Smith to form a stout bottom-six that will shape their playoff durability.

There’s a lot of hope sitting with Nashville’s inexperienced forwards, but they seem a more surefire bet than the team’s defensive group. While Skjei’s addition provides much-needed star-power behind Roman Josi, it doesn’t address the team’s lack of depth on the right-hand side –unless Skjei plays on his off-hand, which he’s done in the past. Even then, Nashville will be forced to ice at least one of Dante Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, or Luke Schenn in their top four. Like the Predators’ depth forwards, each of these defenders have shown promise at the top flight, but sit a ways back from a confident role. Top prospects Ryan Ufko and Andrew Gibson seem to have the wind behind their sails after the end of the 2023-24 season, and could provide more depth than expected down the stretch, though both still sit multiple steps back from a real NHL chance, leaving Nashville with a defense much skinnier than its starring names would suggest.

A wide-open defense is nothing new for the Predators, and they luckily have the dazzling pair of Juuse Saros and Yaroslav Askarov mitigating most of the concerns from the crease. But over $20MM in spending this summer, and the addition of a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer in Stamkos, should be enough to jolt Nashville into the conversation of Stanley Cup contenders from the Western Conference. That’s certainly the goal for new general manager Barry Trotz, though the impact of his star additions will ultimately sit with the performance of the up-and-coming depth pieces behind them.

Nashville Rated As Best Goaltending Situation In NHL

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  •  In a group effort, The Athletic ranked (Subscription Required) the Nashville Predators with the best goaltending situation in the National Hockey League. The Predators have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Juuse Saros who has maintained a .917 save percentage in 333 starts. Even after signing Saros to an eight-year, $61.92MM extension, the Predators arguably have one of the best goaltending prospects too. Yaroslav Askarov played 44 games for the organization’s AHL affiliate in Milwaukee this past season while earning a 30-13-1 record with a .911 SV%.

    [SOURCE LINK]

2024 Salary Arbitration Tracker

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It has been a quieter year on the salary arbitration front across the NHL.  After 23 players filed last summer, just 14 did this time around.  As expected, most have settled so far with a few hearings still pending.  Here’s a rundown of who has settled and who still needs to sign.

Updated 7/30/24, 1:07 p.m.

Contracts Settled

D Jake Christiansen (Blue Jackets) – one year, $775K (two-way agreement)
F Connor Dewar (Maple Leafs) – one year, $1.18MM
F Jack Drury (Hurricanes) – two years, $3.45MM
D Ty Emberson (Sharks) – one year, $950K
G Jet Greaves (Blue Jackets) – two years, $1.625MM (two-way in 2024-25, one-way in 2025-26)
F Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (Sabres) – five years, $23.75MM
F Beck Malenstyn (Sabres) – two years, $2.7MM
D J.J. Moser (Lightning) – two years, $6.75MM
F Joe Veleno (Red Wings) – two years, $4.55MM
F Oliver Wahlstrom (Islanders) – one year, $1MM
F Kirill Marchenko (Blue Jackets) – three years, $11.55MM
F Martin Necas (Hurricanes) – two years, $13MM
D Ryan Lindgren (Rangers) – one year, $4.5MM

Contracts Awarded

D Spencer Stastney (Predators) – two years, $1.675MM (two-way in 2024-25, one-way in 2025-26)

Scheduled Hearings

none

A reminder of some of the arbitration rules for the upcoming potential hearings:

  • A player and team can settle on a deal at any point before the hearing starts.
  • Once the hearing has taken place, the arbitration decision must be issued by email within 48 hours.
  • Arbitration awards can only be one or two years in length. (Players who are in their final year of restricted free agency are only entitled to a one-year agreement from an arbitrator.)
  • The team decides on the awarded term as these were all player-elected filings.
  • The team can walk away from the arbitration decision if a contract with an average annual value of more than $4.74MM is awarded.

Worth noting is that teams who have someone file for arbitration will receive a second buyout window three days after their final contract is settled or awarded.  The window lasts for 48 hours and the only eligible players to be bought out in this timeframe are those who have an AAV of $4MM or more and were on that team’s reserve list at the trade deadline back in March.

NHL Teams Facing Fall Cap Crunches

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There’s still plenty of time for NHL teams to sort out their active rosters and salary cap pictures this summer. After all, teams can exceed the $88MM upper limit by up to 10% during the offseason, and training camps are still nearly two months away.

Still, this year’s early July rush means that all the notable contracts for this season, at least in terms of salary cap impact, have likely already been handed out. It’s left a handful of teams with projected rosters that sit over the cap or, in one very peculiar case, right at it.

These teams must use a mix of long-term injured reserve placements, trades, and waivers to become cap-compliant before opening night. Per PuckPedia, here are the teams currently pacing to boast a projected cap hit above $88MM.

Washington Capitals

($98.27MM projected cap hit, $10.27MM above upper limit)

The Capitals have been one of the league’s most active teams this summer, making a pair of impact additions up front with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane. They also reshaped their blue line, shipping out serviceable veteran Nick Jensen as part of a package to the Senators to pick up the younger, higher-upside Jakob Chychrun while also replacing Jensen’s shutdown role in free agency with the signing of Matt Roy.

They also went for cost-effectiveness with their goaltending duo, shipping out Darcy Kuemper and his $5.25MM cap hit to the Kings in the Dubois trade before acquiring serviceable tandem netminder Logan Thompson from the Golden Knights, who carries a cap hit of just $767K.

These moves have still left them with a handful of bloated deals for their veterans. But the biggest one of them all won’t be an issue. 36-year-old Nicklas Bäckström is entering the final season of his five-year, $46MM deal with a $9.2MM cap hit, but he’s not expected to play again due to lingering hip issues.

While many teams will look to avoid using LTIR to be cap-compliant to start the season, the Caps won’t be one of them. Bäckström will remain there as he did last season, but placing him on LTIR won’t be enough on its own to bring Washington’s total projected cap hit back under $88MM.

They’d still need to clear a little over $1MM in space, which begs the question of T.J. Oshie’s health. The 37-year-old winger is also entering the final season of his contract at a $5.75MM cap hit, and a wide variety of injuries limited him to 52 games last season. As of earlier this month, Oshie said he hasn’t found a long-term solution to his recurring back issues that would allow him to comfortably play in 2024-25.

If nothing changes between now and September, Oshie could also land on LTIR, making them cap-compliant for opening night. But Washington would need to be reasonably confident that he’ll miss the entire campaign to avoid making any other cap-shedding moves, as they’d need to have space to activate him off LTIR if he becomes healthy enough to return to play.

Vegas Golden Knights

($91.64MM projected cap hit, $3.64MM above upper limit)

Unlike the Capitals, the Golden Knights were conservative in their offseason moves. Their cap crunch forced them to walk away from key offensive contributors Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson, among others, and their UFA pickups were limited to reclamation project-type pickups such as Victor Olofsson and Ilya Samsonov.

But like Washington, LTIR is Vegas’ only clear path to cap compliance in September. The status of 33-year-old netminder Robin Lehner remains a relative mystery as he enters the final season of his contract with a $5MM cap hit. He hasn’t played the last two seasons after undergoing hip surgery and hasn’t been seen with the team during that time.

General manager Kelly McCrimmon said in May that it’s likely Lehner will return to LTIR this fall. This would give the Knights about $1.36MM in space in an LTIR pool with a full 23-man roster, as projected by PuckPedia.

Philadelphia Flyers

($88.83MM projected cap hit, $830K above upper limit)

LTIR is a good safeguard for teams who need it to be cap-compliant, but it’s not ideal. Teams who utilize it don’t accrue cap space throughout the season, significantly limiting their flexibility come deadline day.

The Flyers have one LTIR-eligible contract in defenseman Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM cap hit through 2027). They also have Ryan Johansen signed at a $4MM cap hit next season, and his playing status is in doubt due to a hip injury that surfaced after they acquired him from the Avalanche at last year’s deadline. Unfortunately for them, if Johansen remains injured, they also can’t send him to the minors to knock $1.15MM off his cap hit. They attempted to do so last year, but it was reversed by the league after his injury came to light.

But notably, they don’t have any league-minimum contracts projected on their active roster to start the campaign, per PuckPedia. Their cheapest one is Tyson Foerster’s entry-level contract, which boasts a cap hit of $863K. Thus, just one AHL assignment would be enough to make them cap-compliant without placing either Ellis or Johansen on LTIR. There aren’t any obvious candidates, though, as Foerster is coming off a 20-goal campaign and was one of their top two-way forwards last season.

The trade of a depth forward, such as 25-year-old pivot Ryan Poehling ($1.9MM cap hit through 2026), could be something to watch for if general manager Daniel Brière decides he wants to stay out of LTIR.

Edmonton Oilers

($88.35MM projected cap hit, $354K above upper limit)

Unlike the other teams on this list, the Oilers still have some offseason business to handle. RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway need new deals, meaning this projected cap hit is artificially low.

Also unlike the others, Edmonton doesn’t have an LTIR-bound contract next season. Considering PuckPedia’s projection above uses a roster size of 21, warranting them only one extra skater, a cap-clearing trade is coming for Edmonton sometime before the puck drops in October.

The most obvious candidate to move is defenseman Cody Ceci, who’s on an expiring contract with a $3.25MM cap hit. It would cost fewer assets to ship out than oft-injured winger Evander Kane, who’s locked in at a $5.125MM price tag for two more years. And with Ceci averaging north of 20 minutes per game for the last three seasons in Edmonton, they might be able to dump him for future considerations without attaching a draft pick to get out of his deal.

Others to watch

  • The Islanders are currently at the $88MM upper limit after settling on a one-year, $1MM contract with Oliver Wahlstrom yesterday, PuckPedia projects. That figure comes using a roster size of 22, forcing international free agent signing Maxim Tsyplakov and his $950K cap hit on an entry-level deal to the minors.
  • The Canucks are within just $16K of the cap after signing Daniel Sprong to a one-year, $975K contract last weekend. But that figure comes with a full 23-player roster projection, giving them a decent amount of flexibility in the case of short-term injuries. They can also place the final season of defenseman Tucker Poolman’s $2.5MM cap hit contract on LTIR if necessary.
  • The Predators are within $600K of the cap with a bare minimum 20-player roster and still have RFAs Juuso Pärssinen and Philip Tomasino to sign. After their big UFA spending spree, they’ll likely move out one of their depth defenders to open up space for an expanded roster, potentially 26-year-old Dante Fabbro (signed at $2.5MM through this season).
  • The Lightning have $730K in projected cap space with one open roster spot. That’s tight, but with room for two healthy extras, they’ll probably start the season with no changes to their projected roster.
  • The same can be said about the defending champion Panthers, who have $767K in space with a roster size of 22.

Arbitrator Awards Predators’ Spencer Stastney Two-Year Deal

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Predators RFA defenseman Spencer Stastney has a contract for the next two seasons after his arbitration case reached a hearing Monday, reports Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman. It carries a cap hit in the $837.5K neighborhood and is a two-way deal in 2024-25 before converting to a one-way pact in 2025-26 at “$850K-ish.” The breakdown for this season is a $825K NHL salary and a $400K AHL salary.

Stastney, 24, is the first to have his arbitration case settled by a hearing this offseason. Out of the 14 players who initially filed for salary arbitration, only five are still awaiting contracts (Ryan Lindgren, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Kirill Marchenko, Martin Nečas, Oliver Wahlstrom).

A 2018 fifth-round pick of the Preds, Stastney worked his way up the depth chart last season after making his NHL debut in an eight-game stint in 2022-23. The Illinois native looked at home in a bottom-pairing role, posting four points (two goals, two assists) and a +9 rating in 20 appearances while averaging nearly 16 minutes per game. The 6’0″, 184-lb defender was rarely involved physically, registering just two hits, but he did control play well with a 51.9 CF% and 59.3 xGF% at even strength, per Hockey Reference.

Those advanced numbers, plus the trust of head coach Andrew Brunette to utilize him for three of Nashville’s six playoff games before exiting with injury, is likely why he filed for a one-year, one-way deal worth $950K. The Predators asked for a two-year, two-way deal with a league-minimum cap hit in the NHL and AHL salaries below the $200K line each season. The cap hit falls a bit closer to Nashville’s filing, but the overall guaranteed cash awarded to Stastney in this deal is much more in line with the player’s request.

Despite the two-way structure next season, there’s a strong chance Stastney is on Nashville’s opening night roster. They have less than $600K in cap space with a bare-minimum roster after their free agency spending spree, per PuckPedia, meaning they don’t have any flexibility to recall an extra skater from the AHL for last-minute absences. The Preds will likely move out one of their NHL-rostered depth defensemen, all of whom cost at least $2MM against the cap, for added flexibility. Stastney’s six-figure cap hit as a replacement would give Nashville the flexibility they need to effectively manage their roster in-season.

Latest On Spencer Stastney's Arbitration Hearing

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Predators RFA defenseman Spencer Stastney is indeed having his arbitration hearing today, Nick Kieser of the team’s radio network confirms. The NHLPA is deviating from past tradition this year by not releasing a calendar of hearing dates, but arbitration figures are always exchanged two days before the hearing. When Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reported the filings on Saturday, it was clear Stastney’s hearing was slated for Monday.

Predators, Spencer Stastney Exchange Arbitration Figures

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With the schedule for arbitration hearings not being made public this year, it’s generally unknown when hearings are going to be held.  However, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link), the Predators and defenseman Spencer Stastney have exchanged figures, meaning his hearing is slated for Monday.

Stastney’s request was a one-year deal worth $950K.  With the blueliner initiating the filing, it’s Nashville that gets to determine if it’s a one-year or a two-year award should it actually go through the process.  They opted for the latter, filing a two-way offer for both seasons, worth $775K and $125K in the minors for 2024-25 and $775K and $175K for 2025-26.

The 24-year-old is coming off his entry-level deal, one which saw him carry a $925K cap hit between his base salary and signing bonuses.  Nashville’s offer actually comes in below the qualifying offer they tendered late last month but those offers have since lapsed meaning that they can go as low as they want with an offer.

Last season, Stastney split the year between Nashville and AHL Milwaukee.  In the minors, he suited up in 44 games, notching five goals and 15 assists, improving on his rookie point total by seven.  He got into 20 regular season games with the Preds, picking up two goals and two helpers while logging just under 16 minutes a night.  Stastney also played in three games in their opening-round playoff loss to Vancouver.

The two sides now have just under 48 hours to come to an agreement.  If they can’t come to one and the hearing starts, it will go the distance and have a contract awarded by the arbitrator.  If a contract is awarded, Stastney will once again be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent next summer.

Predators Sign Adam Wilsby

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The Nashville Predators have signed defender Adam Wilsby to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal will carry a $775K salary at the NHL level.

Nashville drafted Wilsby in the fourth round of the 2020 NHL Draft, selecting him in his final year of eligibility after a strong season with Sodertalje SK of the HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden’s second-tier league. Wilsby recorded 30 points in 41 games that year, helping Sodertalje earn promotion to the SHL and following the performance up with two strong seasons at the top flight to help keep them there.

With a successful run in Sweden in the rearview, Wilsby signed an uncommon two-year entry-level contract with the Predators in 2022. But he struggled to carry his momentum over from Sweden, posting just 18 points as an AHL rookie, though he did play in all 72 games. He also appeared in 16 postseason games, where a quicker pace boosted him to a productive eight points. He improved to 21 points in 61 games this season, though still seems far from finding the comfortable footing he had in the SHL.

Still, there’s reason to be excited about Wilsby’s stout control of the blue line and ability to spark transition. He’s a young defender who seems to have more to give and will get a chance to prove his worth to the Predators next season, fighting for a much hardier NHL deal next summer.

Latest On Yaroslav Askarov

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Since he was drafted 11th overall in 2020, it had been widely expected that Yaroslav Askarov would eventually become the long-term goalie for the Predators.  However, the eight-year, $61.92MM contract extension they handed Juuse Saros earlier this week that runs through the 2033-34 campaign immediately called Askarov’s future with the franchise in question.

In a recent interview with Championat’s Pavel Panyshev, Askarov’s agent Dan Milstein further clouded Askarov’s future with Nashville, stating that he’s working with the club on different options when it comes to the young netminder and that he has proven that he’s an NHL player.

That last part is a bit difficult to agree with considering that Askarov has all of three career NHL appearances under his belt.  While he has fared well in those games with a 2.58 GAA and a .914 SV%, it’s still too small of a definitive sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from.

Having said that, the 22-year-old had a strong sophomore year at the AHL level, showing he’s progressing well toward becoming the impactful NHL netminder many expect him to be.  Askarov played in 44 games with Milwaukee last season, matching the .911 SV% from his rookie campaign while shaving 30 points off his GAA, bringing it down to 2.39, ranking him fifth league-wide among qualifying netminders.

Askarov remains waiver-exempt for the next two seasons so this is something that, in theory, GM Barry Trotz could simply punt on for the time being, thereby keeping the netminder in the top role with the Admirals.  That timeframe coincides with the length of contract handed to veteran Scott Wedgewood who was brought in as part of their July 1st spending spree so, in theory, Askarov would then move into the second-string role for the 2026-27 campaign.

But Milstein’s comments suggest that they have a different idea in mind, one that will get his client to a regular NHL role much sooner than that.  This isn’t the first time Askarov has been in trade speculation as it was widely reported that he was in play at the 2023 draft in an effort to move up in the first round but no suitable trade came to fruition.

If Trotz does opt to once again look into an Askarov trade, he will have some challenges.  The team is pretty much capped out as a result of their offseason movement so far; they’re at a point where they might be trying to save a few bucks to have a shot at carrying more than a minimum-sized roster.  That will limit them to trading for future assets, either draft picks or prospects.  Speculatively, with the moves they’ve made so far, the latter might be their preferred option, getting someone around Askarov’s age who is close to being NHL-ready and could be called upon when injuries strike.

The moment Saros agreed to his max-term extension, the long-term future of Askarov with the Predators was called into question.  Based on what his agent is suggesting, it might be fair to wonder about his short-term future with them as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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